eastern idaho officer meeting economic overview...ntl. res. & mining source: utah department of...

Eastern Idaho Officer Meeting

Economic OverviewNovember 6, 2015

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing

States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013

U.S. Rate = 0.7%

Source: U.S Census Bureau

Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

National Economic Conditions



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

How long will interest rates stay so low?...

It’s up to the Fed

National Job Growth Improving

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8.7 Million Jobs Lost

11.9 Million

Jobs Recovered

Pa

yro

ll C

ha

ng

e 0

00

’s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National Employment Change

0.7%

1.0%

2.9%

2.6%

3.2%

1.8%

1.6%

2.0%

0.9%

3.3%

-11.1%

-13% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5%

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Sept 2014 to Sept 2015

Total: 2.0%

National Employment Change

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Seasonally Adjusted

Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Sept 2014 to Sept 2015

149

58

426

568

616

147

44

536

104

205

-101

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Department of Workforce Services

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

5.1% in Sept

Consumption Drives Growth

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

2012 2013 2014

Fixed Investment

Inventories

Net Exports

Government

Personal Consumption

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o G

DP

Gro

wth

2015

Total GDP Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer Confidence is Rising, but Not Robust

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Ap

r 2

01

2

Ju

l 2

012

Oct

20

12

Jan

201

3

Ap

r 2

01

3

Ju

l 2

013

Oct

20

13

Jan

201

4

Ap

r 2

01

4

Ju

l 2

014

Oct

20

14

Jan

201

5

Ap

r 2

01

5

Ju

l 2

015

Oct

20

15

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board


Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change

U.S. Monthly Wage Growth

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Ma

y-0

6

Sep

-06

Jan

-07

Ma

y-0

7

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

Ma

y-0

8

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Sep

-15

2006-2015

Average

0.00%

Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession

Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Underemployment vs. Unemployment


2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment)

Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest in Over 35 Years


Note: Seasonally adjusted

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

Mar 2000

67.3%

Feb 1978

62.8%

Sept 2015

62.4%

%

Euro compared to U.S. Dollar

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.6020

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

USD

PARITY

$1.37

Source: Investing.com

$1.07

US Dollar Compared to Chinese YuanInverted Scale

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

2010China allows

the yuanto rise

Aug 2015China

devalues the yuanby largest amount

in 20 years

2001China joins WTO 2005

China allows

the yuanto rise

2008China

stops the yuan’s

rise

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Oil Prices Rising But Still Below Long Term Trend$

Pe

r B

arr

el

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.002

00

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

$108

$40

Source: Baker Hughes

Active U.S. Oil Rigs

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,2002

00

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

1,931

868

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Effective Fed Rate

12-month change in PCE price index

Unemployment Rate (right axis)

Fed Fund Rate, Inflation, and Unemployment

Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures

$0 $0 $0

Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

4 moves

25 bps

2 moves

25 bps

Median FOMC Forecast

0.25%

1.875%

2015

Federal Funds Rate Outlook

Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve

0.625%

2016



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Idaho Economic Conditions

Idaho Population 8th Fastest Growing in U.S.

Percent Change: 2013 to 2014U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

0.7% to 0.9% (at or above U.S. rate)

0.4% to 0.6%

1.0% or more

0.0% to 0.3%

NM

-0.1%

UT

1.4%

AZ

1.5%

CA

1.0%

NV

1.7%

OR

1.1%

TX

1.7%

OK

0.6%

CO

1.6%

WA

1.3%

ID

1.3%

MT

0.9%

WY

0.2%

ND

2.2%

SD

0.9%

MN

0.6%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.4%

WI

0.3%

IL

-0.1%IN

0.4%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.5%

TN 0.8%

KY 0.3%

MS

0.1%AL

0.3%

GA

1.0%

SC

1.3%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.7%

WV

-0.2%

PA

0.0%

NY

0.3%

ME

0.1%

AK

-0.1%

HI

0.8%

MA

0.5%

VT

0.0%

NH

0.3%

RI

0.2%

CT

-0.1%

NJ

0.3%

DE

1.1%

MD

0.6%

MI

0.1%

DC

1.5%

KS

0.3%

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,0001

98

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population

11,317

9,389

1,634,464

Idaho Population and Components of Change

Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

To

tal

Po

pu

lati

on

Co

mp

on

en

ts o

f Po

pu

latio

n C

ha

ng

e

Idaho PopulationGrowth Rates

By County2013 to 2014

State Average = 1.3%

Increase of 0.4% to 0.8%


Increase of 1.4% or Greater


Population Loss

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Jerome

0.9%

Jefferson

0.6%

Idaho

0.1%

Gooding

-0.2%

Gem

1.0%

Fremont

-0.3%

Franklin

1.3%

Elmore

-0.2%

Custer

-2.2%

Clearwater

-0.5%

Washington

0.7% Clark

0.7%

Valley

2.5%

Cassia

0.8%

Twin Falls

1.3%

Caribou

0.1%

Teton

0.4%Canyon

2.1%

Shoshone

-2.3%

Camas

0.0%

Power

-1.0%

Butte

-0.2%

Payette

1.1%

Boundary

1.0%

Owyhee

-0.6%

Bonneville

1.0%

Bonner

2.2%

Nez Perce

0.2%

Boise

1.2%

Minidoka

0.1%

Blaine

0.8%

Madison

1.2%

Bingham

-0.3%Lincoln

0.2%

Benewah

0.8%

Lewis

0.3%

Bear Lake

0.3%

Lemhi

0.0%

Bannock

0.0%

Latah

0.5%

Adams

0.8%

Kootenai

2.1%

Ada

2.3%

Oneida

-2.0%

Idaho Employment Growth3rd Highest in the Nation

Percent Change in Employment for States: Sep 2014 to Sep 2015U.S. Rate = 2.0%

Note: Seasonally Adjusted


NM

0.8%

UT

3.7%

AZ

2.2%

CA

2.8%

NV

2.8%

OR

2.8%

TX

1.9%

OK

0.2%

CO

1.7%

WA

3.1%

ID

3.1%

MT

0.6%

WY

-0.9%

ND

-1.6%

SD

1.6%

MN

1.3%

NE

0.6%

KS

0.6%

IA

1.5%

MO

0.6%

AR

1.9%

LA

0.1%

WI

1.9%

IL

0.5%IN

2.2%

OH

0.9%

FL

3.0%

TN 1.7%

KY1.8%

MS

1.1%

AL

1.6%

GA

2.0%

SC

3.2%

NC 2.6%

VA

1.0%

WV

-1.5%

PA

0.7%

NY

1.4%

ME

1.0%

AK

-0.1%

HI

1.3%

MA

2.0%

VT

0.6%

NH

0.6%

RI

0.6%

CT

1.6%

NJ

1.0%

DE

1.7%

MD

1.7%

MI

2.0%

DC

1.4%

0.9% and below

2.1% to 2.9% (at or above the U.S. rate)

1.6% to 2.0%

3.0% or more

1.0% to 1.5%

Top States for Employment GrowthSep 2014 vs. Sep 2015


Top 10 Sep 2014 Sep 2015 Ranking

1. North Dakota 50th

2. Texas 15th (tied)

3. Utah 1st

4. Nevada 6th (tied)

5. Delaware 19th (tied)

6. Colorado 19th (tied)

7. Florida 5th

8. North Carolina 9th

9. Oregon 6th (tied)

10. South Carolina 2nd

39. Idaho 3rd (tied)

Idaho Employment at New Highs

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

8001

99

5

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s


Loss of 59,000 jobs

Gain of 77,000 jobs

Idaho Job Growth Compared to National Average

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Year

U.S. Idaho


Idaho Employment Gains and Losses

Sources: Bureau of Labor Staistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Sep 2014 – Sep 2015

1.8%

4.8%

1.3%

2.8%

2.9%

4.8%

-2.2%

3.7%

5.0%

9.1%

-7.3%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & MiningTotal: 3.2%

Idaho Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Sep 2014 – Sep 2015

2,100

1,100

900

2,600

2,300

1,600

-200

4,900

3,000

3,500

-300

-1,500 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Total: 21,500

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Idaho EmploymentChange Rates

By CountySep 2014 toSep 2015

State Rate = 3.5%

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Employment

2.0% to 3.4%

0.0% to 1.9%

5.5% or more

3.5% to 5.4%

Below 0.0%

Jefferson

4.0%

Jerome

5.8%

Idaho

2.7%

Gooding

2.5%

Gem

2.6%

Fremont

4.3%

Franklin

1.4%

Elmore

3.4%

Custer

7.6%

Clearwater

-0.2%

Washington

1.2% Clark

18.5%

Valley

6.0%

Cassia

3.2%

Twin Falls

5.8%

Caribou

3.0%

Teton

7.0%Canyon

3.0%

Shoshone

1.0%

Camas

0.0%

Power

-7.0%

Butte

4.8%

Payette

2.6%

Boundary

4.8%

Owyhee

-2.6%

Bonneville

5.6%

Bonner

3.2%

Nez Perce

2.4%

Boise

4.7%

Minidoka

1.9%

Blaine

4.3%

Madison

3.6%

Bingham

1.3%Lincoln

3.6%

Benewah

2.3%

Lewis

1.9%

Bear Lake

1.1%

Lemhi

2.3%

Bannock

12.1%

Latah

5.6%

Adams

5.2%

Kootenai

5.3%

Ada

4.3%

Oneida

3.8%

Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment Rates in the Country

Sep 2015 U.S. Rate = 5.1% NH

3.4%

NM

6.8%

UT

3.6%

AZ

6.3%

CA

5.9%

NV

6.7%

OR

6.2%

TX

4.2%

OK

4.4%

CO

4.0%

WA

5.2%

ID

4.2%

MT

4.1%

WY

4.0%

ND

2.8%

SD

3.5%

MN

3.8%

NE

2.9%

KS

4.4%

IA

3.6%

MO

5.3%

AR

5.2%

LA

6.0%

WI

4.3%

IL

5.4%IN

4.5%

OH

4.5%

FL

5.2%

TN 5.7%

KY5.0%

MS

6.1%AL

6.0%

GA

5.8%

SC

5.7%

NC 5.8%

VA

4.3%

WV

7.3%

PA

5.3%

NY

5.1%

ME

4.4%

AK

6.4%

HI

3.4%

MA

4.6%

VT

3.7%

RI

5.4%

CT

5.2%

NJ

5.6%

DE

4.9%

MD

5.1%

MI

5.0%

DC

6.7%

6.1% or more

4.1% to 5.0%


4.0% or less

5.6% to 6.0%



Idaho vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

U.S. Idaho

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Idaho Unemployment

RatesBy County

Sep 2015

State Rate = 4.2%

4.2% to 7.9%

5.0% to 6.4%

3.5% or lower

3.6% to 4.1%

6.5% or greater

Source: Idaho Department of Labor

Jerome

3.4%

Jefferson

3.5%

Idaho

6.6%

Gooding

3.2%

Gem

5.2%

Fremont

3.2%

Franklin

4.9%

Elmore

6.4%

Custer

6.7%

Clearwater

7.8%

Washington

5.7% Clark

4.3%

Valley

5.8%

Cassia

3.8%

Twin Falls

3.7%

Caribou

3.8%

Teton

3.4%Canyon

4.9%

Shoshone

7.6%

Camas

4.3%

Power

4.5%

Butte

4.3%

Payette

4.9%

Boundary

5.2%

Owyhee

3.1%

Bonneville

3.6%

Bonner

6.2%

Nez Perce

3.9%

Boise

5.4%

Minidoka

3.9%

Blaine

3.6%

Madison

2.9%

Bingham

4.2%Lincoln

4.6%

Benewah

7.1%

Lewis

4.6%

Bear Lake

4.0%

Lemhi

3.3%

Bannock

4.1%

Latah

3.8%

Adams

8.9%

Kootenai

5.0%

Ada

3.1%

Oneida

3.9%

Idaho Personal Income Growth 6th Highest in the Nation

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau

Percent Change in Personal Income : 2013-2014State Average = 3.9% NH

4.5%

NM

4.6%

UT

4.6%

AZ

4.1%

CA

4.7%

NV

3.9%

OR

5.7%

TX

5.6%

OK

3.8%

CO

5.6 %

WA

5.3%

ID

5.3%

MT

4.0%

WY

4.0%

ND

5.6%

SD

1.7%

MN

3.2%

NE

0.5%

KS

2.9%

IA

1.3%

MO

2.7%

AR

3.1%

LA

3.2%

WI

3.4%

IL

2.4%IN

2.5%

OH

3.9%

FL

4.6%

TN 3.6%

KY4.4%

MS

1.3%AL

3.1%

GA

4.4%

SC

4.3%

NC 3.5%

VA

2.6%

WV

2.9%

PA

3.4%

NY

3.7%

ME

2.9%

AK

5.7%

HI

3.8%

MA

4.2%

VT

4.0%

RI

4.3%

CT

3.0%

NJ

3.0%

DE

3.6%

MD

3.3%

MI

4.0%

DC

3.6%

3.9% to 4.4% (at or above the state average)

3.1% to 3.8%

4.5% or more

2.1% to 3.0%

2.0% or less

Idaho Median Household Income Slightly Below Nation

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey

2013 U.S. Rate = $51,939, 2013 Idaho Rate = $51,767

NM

$42,127

UT

$62,967

AZ

$50,602

CA

$57,528

NV

$45,369

OR

$56,307

TX

$53,027

OK

$43,777

CO

$63,371

WA

$60,106

ID

$51,767

MT

$44,132

WY

$55,700

ND

$52,888

SD

$54,453

MN

$60,90

7

NE

$53774

KS

$41,485

IA

$54,85

5

MO

$50,311

AR

$39,91

9

LA

$39,622

WI

$55,258

IL

$57,196IN

$50,553

OH

$46,398

FL

$47,88

6

TN

$42,499

KY$42,158

MS

$40,850AL

$41,381

GA

$47,439

SC

$43,74

9

NC

$41,208

VA

$67,62

0

WV

$40,241

PA

$53,952

NY

$53,843

AK

$61,137

HI

$61,40

8

MA

$62,96

3

VT

$54,842

NH

$71,322

RI

$57,812CT

$67,781

NJ

$61,782DE

$52,219

MD

$65,262

MI

$48,801

DC

$60,675

$56,000 to $60,999

$51,900 to $55,999 (at or above the U.S. Rate)

$61,000 or more

$45,000 to $51,899

$44,999 or less

ME

$50,121

Second Quarter 2014U.S. 2.49%, Idaho 1.32%

Idaho Below National Average Foreclosure Rates


Source: Moody’s Economy.com

NM

2.92%

UT

1.06%

AZ

0.85%

CA

1.10%

NV

3.33%

OR

2.74%

TX

1.01%

CO

0.86%

WA

2.04%

ID

1.32%

MT

0.87%

WY

0.52%

ND

0.68%

SD

0.87%

MN

0.94%

NE

0.72%

KS

1.50%

IA

1.63%

MO

1.08%

WI

1.71%

IL

3.68%IN

2.54%

OH

2.88%

FL

6.91%

KY2.24%

AL

1.43%

GA

1.46%

SC

2.41%

NC 1.44%

VA

0.91%

WV

1.12%

PA

2.81%

NY

5.89%

ME

4.51%

AK

0.89%

HI

3.88

%

MA

1.95%VT

2.96%

NH

1.35%

RI

2.80%CT

3.96%

NJ

8.10%

DE

2.95%

MD

3.24%

MI

1.22%

DC

2.59%

4.00% or more

1.00% to 1.48%

1.49% to 2.48%

.99% or lower

2.49% to 3.99% (at or above national average)

AR

1.69

%

LA

2.11%

MS

1.73%

TN

1.25%OK

2.40%

Idaho Poverty Rate Lower than National Average

2013 U.S. Rate = 14.5%, 2013 Idaho Rate = 13.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data

NM

22.9%

UT

10.1%

AZ

22.4%

CA

15.9%

NV

17.4%

OR

15.2%

TX

18.1%

OK

14.3%

CO

11.9%

WA

11.8%

ID

13.4%

MT

13.8%

WY

12.6%

ND

10.0%

SD

9.7%

MN

12.7%

NE

11.6%

KS

13.4%

IA

11.3%

MO

13.8%

AR

18.8%

LA

18.5%

WI

10.8%

IL

13.4%IN

12.3%

OH

13.3%

FL

15.7%

TN 18.2%

KY21.3%

MS

22.5%

AL

18.2%

GA

17.5%

SC

16.3%

NC 18.3%

VA

11.1%

WV

17.3%

PA

13.0%

NY

15.6%

ME

13.5%

AK

10.3%

HI

10.8%

MA

13.2

%

VT

8.5%

NH

9.5%

RI

13.9%

CT

11.2%

NJ

11.3%

DE

15.0%

MD

10.9%

MI

14.6%

DC

20.1%

10.6% to 12.0%

12.1% to 14.4%

10.5% or less


18.1% or more



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Construction

Idaho Residential Construction Activity

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

Single-Family Units Multifamily

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau

ID Value of New Residential Construction


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Mil

lio

ns

Single Family Units Multi Family Units Total

Average Sales Price By RegionNew Single-Family Houses in 2005 Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce

$125,000

$175,000

$225,000

$275,000

$325,000

$375,000

$425,000

$475,000

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

20

14

Western Region Shows Greater Change in Average Sales Price

New Single-Family Homes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

United States West

20

14



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Exports


Idaho Net International Exports

$3,559

$2,122$1,967

$2,096

$2,915

$3,260

$3,721

$4,704

$4,988

$3,880

$5,150

$5,899$6,113

$5,784

$5,136

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Mil

lio

ns

of

Do

lla

rs

Idaho Exports: Top 5 Industries


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,5002

00

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Mil

lio

ns

of

Do

lla

rs

Computers & Electronics Food Chemicals Primary Metal Mfg Agricultural Products

Idaho Exports Sectors with Significant Changes: 2004-2014


CommodityShare of Total

2004

Share of Total

2014

Change in Share

2004-2014

Percent Change

2004-2014

Food & Kindred

Products8.4% 15.1% 6.7% 217%

Primary Metal

Manufacturing0.2% 5.8% 5.6% 4650%

Transportation

Equipment1.4% 4.6% 3.1% 465%

Wood Products 0.7% 3.5% 2.8% 768%

Machinery 3.9% 2.5% -1.3% 16%

Paper 4.6% 2.5% -2.1% -5.0%

Computers &

Electronics65.5% 43.9% -21.6% 18%

2014 Idaho Merchandise Exports to Top Ten Purchasing Countries


$125

$151

$194

$280

$301

$386

$473

$482

$495

$1,412

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600

United Kingdom

Hong Kong

Malaysia

Japan

Mexico

Singapore

Taiwan

China

South Korea

Canada

Millions of Dollars

2014 Idaho Merchandise Exports of Top Ten Export Industries

Source: Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau

$129

$130

$141

$179

$235

$269

$296

$343

$773

$2,257

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

Paper

Machinery

Minerals

Wood Products

Transportation Equipment

Agricultural Products

Primary Metal Mfg

Chemicals

Food

Computers & Electronics

Millions of Dollars

Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce

2014 Top Purchasing Countries by Export Industry



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Generational Population

Data

Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

U.S. Generational Distribution by County


U.S. Generational Distribution by State

UT GenerationalPopulationBy County

As of July 1, 2014

Baby Boomers (Ages 50-69)

Box Elder

Cache Rich

Weber

Tooele

Salt Lake

Morgan

Summit Daggett

Utah

WasatchDuchesne

Uintah

Juab

Sanpete

Carbon

EmeryGrand

Millard

Piute

Garfield

Sevier

Wayne

San Juan

Iron

Beaver

Washington Kane

Davis


Generation Y (Ages 15-29)

Generation Z (Ages 0-14)

Generation X (Ages 30-49)

ID GenerationalPopulationBy County

As of July 1, 2014

Jerome

Jefferson

Idaho

Gooding

Gem

Fremont

Franklin

Elmore

Custer

Clearwater

WashingtonClark

Valley

CassiaTwin Falls

Caribou

TetonCanyon

Shoshone

Camas

Power

Butte

Payette

Boundary

Owyhee

Bonneville

Bonner

Nez Perce

Boise

Minidoka

Blaine

Madison

Bingham

Lincoln

Benewah

Lewis

Bear Lake

Lemhi

Bannock

Latah

Adams

Kootenai

Ada

Oneida

Generation Y (Ages 15-29)

Generation Z (Ages 0-14)

Generation X (Ages 30-49)

Baby Boomers (Ages 50-69)




U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

AGRICULTURE

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of U.S. GDP

2014


12.9%

2.2%

3.8%

8.2%

12.0%

20.2%

4.6%

2.9%

5.8%

6.0%

12.0%

3.7%

1.7%

2.6%

1.2%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Government

Other Services

Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services

Educational & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

Financial Services

Information

Transportation/Warehousing

Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Construction

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

U.S. Farm Productivity IncreasesWhile Number of Farms Decrease

Source: United States Department of Agriculture

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,0001

95

0

195

4

195

9

196

4

196

9

197

4

197

8

198

2

198

7

199

2

199

7

200

2

200

7

201

1

Number of Farms Productivity

Contribution to US Agriculture IndustryBy State


Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island

2014 Contribution State 2014 Ranking

16.6% California 1st

5.5% Texas 3rd

3.7% Washington 7th

2.1% Idaho 16th

1.9% Oregon 19th

1.6% Colorado 24th

1.0% Arizona 31st

1.0% New Mexico 32nd

0.4% Utah 39th

0.4% Wyoming 40th

0.2% Nevada 45th

Agriculture Real Value Added to State GDP Top 10 States

Per Capita

$421.88

$3,285.67$3,250.21

$2,402.86

$2,173.14

$1,728.40$1,722.44

$1,220.23

$873.80 $849.09$777.88

$0.00

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

$3,000.00

$3,500.00

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Neb

ras

ka

So

uth

Dak

ota

Iow

a

No

rth

Dak

ota

Ida

ho

Kan

sas

Mo

nta

na

Ark

an

sa

s

Wy

om

ing

Min

ne

so

ta

2014





$421.88

$172.96 $162.14

$132.95

$114.12$102.50 $98.09 $83.48

$78.72 $63.88 $57.00

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

$400.00

$450.00

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2014

Agriculture Real Value Added to State GDP Bottom 10 States

Per Capita

2012 Production Value of Agricultural Products Sold

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2014 Census Survey

Value State

$42,627,472,000 California

$25,375,581,000 Texas

$9,120,749,000 Washington

$7,801,446,000 Idaho

$7,780,874,000 Colorado

$4,883,674,000 Oregon

$3,732,113,000 Arizona

$2,550,147,000 New Mexico

$1,816,147,000 Utah

$1,689,416,000 Wyoming

$764,144,000 NevadaTotal Value:

$108,141,763,000

U.S. Agricultural Products Sold as a Percentage of Total Market Value


Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of Idaho GDP

2014


13.4%

2.1%

3.3%

8.4%

9.4%

17.8%

1.9%

2.9%

7.8%

6.0%

12.7%

4.1%

1.6%

1.5%

7.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0%

Government

Other Services

Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services

Educational & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

Financial Services

Information

Transportation/Warehousing

Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Construction

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

Idaho Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold


Note: Total slightly higher than individual amounts shown due to information withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations

(In Thousands of Dollars)

Idaho Top 10 Agricultural Exports2013

Source: United States Department of Agriculture

Note: Top 10 exports comprise about 98% of Idaho total exports

Ranking ProductShare of Total Export Market

1st Other plant products 22.4%

2nd Wheat 20.6%

3rd Dairy products 17.5%

4th Vegetables, processed 9.6%

5th Beef and veal 7.0%

6th Vegetables, fresh 5.3%

7th Feeds and fodder 5.2%

8th Other animal products 4.0%

9th Grain products, processed 3.9%

10th Hides and skins 2.7%

Idaho Economic Indicators2014 - 2016

Source: Moody’s Analytics

5.5

3.2

8.7

3.7

2.3

1.3

3.6

5.5

5.0

3.8

3.3

1.4

2.7

6.5

5.5

4.8

2.6

1.3

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

Gross State Product

Home Prices

Personal Income

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Population

2014 2015f 2016f

e = estimate f = forecast

Robert Spendlove

Economic and Public Policy Officer

Email:

[email protected]

Phone: 801-560-5394Presentations are offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Presentations may contain

trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with Zions Bank. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and Zions Bank does not claim any ownership of or make

representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.

eastern idaho officer meeting economic overview...ntl. res. & mining source: utah department of...

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