https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx

Monetary Policy Group April 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions March 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

Content 1 Executive Summary 1

2 The Thai Economy 3

2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector Real Estate

2.2 Domestic Demand 6 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position

2.3 The global economy and external sector 8 The global economy External sector Balance of payments

2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 10 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates

2.5 Financial stability 12 Inflation Labor market External stability

3 Link to related statistics and contents 14

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

1

1. Executive Summary

In March 2020, the Thai economy contracted at a higher rate than the previous month. The COVID-19 outbreak affected economic activities more severely in all aspects. In particular, the tourism sector severely contracted due to international travel restriction measures in many countries including Thailand. Merchandise exports excluding gold contracted at higher rate, consistent with the declines in trading partner demand and global crude oil prices. Private consumption indicators contracted as a result of weakening supporting factors and tightening COVID-19 control measures. As a consequence of the contraction in domestic and external demand, manufacturing production and private investment indicators further contracted. Only public spending expanded thanks to the disbursement after the enactment of the FY2020 budget.

On the stability front, some indicators deteriorated. Headline inflation became negative due to the sharp contraction in energy prices following global crude oil prices. Labor market was more vulnerable. The current account registered a smaller surplus owing to the lower trade balance from the increase in merchandise imports value, and the decline in travel receipts. The capital and financial accounts posted a deficit from both the asset and the liability positions. However, the overall stability remained sound.

Details of the economic conditions are as follows:

The number of foreign tourist arrivals severely contracted at 76.4 percent compared to the same period last year in all nationalities. This was a consequence of an implementation of international travel restriction measures in many countries including Thailand in order to contain the spread of the COVID-19. Overall, the deterioration of the number of foreign tourists have a severe impact on tourism-related businesses, especially hotel and restaurant as well as passenger transportation.

The value of merchandise exports contracted by 2.2 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, exports value contracted by 6.5 percent, higher than the previous month, in several categories. In particular, exports of automotive and parts, machinery and equipment and petroleum-related products significantly contracted. This was partly due to lockdown measures in many countries, resulting in the significantly drop in economic activities and demand from trading partners, coupled with the contraction export price in tandem with a high contraction in global crude oil prices. However, exports of some products expanded such as electronic products, agro-manufacturing and electrical appliances.

Private consumption indicators contracted from the same period last year in almost all spending categories, due to weakening supporting factors including household income, employment and consumer confidence. This was coupled with the effect of the decline in traveling and spending outside caused by the control measures and concern over the COVID-19 outbreak. Only spending on necessary consumer goods and household electricity usage continued to expand. Manufacturing production further contracted in line with weakening domestic and external demand.

Private investment indicators contracted at a higher rate from the same period last year, from investment in machinery and equipment as well as construction. This was consistent with softening domestic and external demand as well as deteriorated business sentiment from the COVID-19 outbreak.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

2

The value of merchandise imports turned to expand by 4.4 percent from the same period last year after highly contracted in the previous month. Excluding gold, imports value expanded by 1.3 percent from imports of raw materials and intermediate goods especially from China. After China eased some lockdown measures, imports of some products turned into expansion. Moreover, imports of crude oil expanded due to the contracts before the COVID-19 outbreak. Nevertheless, imports of consumer goods and capital goods continued to contract in line with weakening economic activities

Public spending, excluding transfers, turned into expansion for the first time in 5 months, due to the disbursement after the enactment of the FY2020 budget. Current expenditures expanded from purchases on goods and services and compensation of civil servants. Meanwhile, capital expenditures expanded by both the central government and state enterprise.

On the stability front, some indicators deteriorated. Headline inflation became negative for the first time since June 2017, due to the sharp contraction in energy prices following global crude oil prices. Core inflation and raw food inflation remained positive but decreased from the previous month. Labor market was more vulnerable. The current account registered a smaller surplus owing to lower trade balance from the increase in merchandise imports value, and the decline in travel receipts. The capital and financial accounts posted a deficit from both the asset and the liability positions. However, the overall stability remained sound.

Overall economic activities in the first quarter of 2020 contracted from the same period last year. The COVID-19 outbreak severely affected both external and domestic demand particularly the tourism sector which sharply contracted. Merchandise exports excluding gold continued to contract. Private consumption indicators softened due to weakening household income and confidence. Only spending on necessary consumer goods still expanded. Public spending continued to contract as a result of the delayed enactment of the FY2020 budget. As a consequence of the decline in economic activities, manufacturing production and private investment indicators contracted. On the stability front, headline inflation slightly increased from the previous quarter on the back of core inflation and energy prices due to the low base effect last year. Labor market was more vulnerable. The current account register a smaller surplus as travel receipts sharply dropped. The capital and financial accounts recorded a deficit from both the asset and the liability positions.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

3

2.1 Supply

Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

60708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share 016R 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP %MoM sa

Food & Beverages Automotives - Passenger Cars - Commercial Vehicles - Engine Petroleum Chemicals Rubbers & Plastics Cement & Construction IC & Semiconductors Electrical Appliances Textiles & Apparels Hard Disk Drive Others MPI MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

Capacity Utilization (SA)

MPI Classified by Export Share

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

-3.2 %

-6.2 %-5.9 %

%MoM sa

Farm Income(%YoY)

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar

Nominal farm incomeP 1.2 2.0 3.8 -1.7

Agricultural productionP -0.7 -6.3 -9.6

Agricultural price

1.9 8.8

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Farm income contracted from the same period last year due to agricultural outputs affected by the drought. Manufacturing production contracted, hitting the lowest rate since the 2011 great flood, due to weak domestic and external demand. Service sector contracted at a higher rate, especially in tourism-related businesses, as COVID-19 control measures were implemented in many countries including Thailand.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

4

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)

Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Transport (8%) Information (5%)Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Hotel & Restaurant (10%) Professional Services (4%)

Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

(%)Share 016R

2019 2020

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP

Food & Beverages

Automotives

Petroleum

Chemicals

Rubbers & Plastics

Cement & Construction

IC & Semiconductors

Electrical Appliances

Textiles & Apparels

Hard Disk Drive

Others

CAPU sa

Capacity Utilization (sa)

Source: Office of Industrial Economics

Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

%MoM sa

-6.5 %

20.5 %

-1.1 %

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

5

Newly Launched Propertiesin Bangkok and Vicinity Area

11 7

18

05

1015202530354045

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019Q1

2020Q1

Low-rise residents Condominium Total

Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Thousand units,sa

Q1/2020

New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area*

97

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019 Q1

2020 Q1

Low-rise residents Condominium Total

* seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandSource: Bank of Thailand

Q1/2020Thousand units,sa

Preliminary

Housing Price index

142156

180176

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019 Q1

2020 Q1

Single house Townhouse

Condominium Land

Source Mortgage loan reported by commercial banks, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Index (Jan2009 = 100) Q1/2020

Preliminary

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

6

2.2 Domestic Demand

90100110120130140150160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, sa (RHS)Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

% YoY 2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) 3 -2.1 -2.2 -1.7 0.9

Construction Materials Index 3 -0.9 3.2 -2.6 -3.8

Real Imports of Capital Goods 3 -9.2 2 -10.8 0.1

Real Domestic Machinery Sales 3 2 0.2 .5 -1.3 -2.5

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 3 -11.7 -8.0 -2.2

Private Investment Index -6.6 -6.9 -7.8 -1.0

Private Investment Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

30405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

6080100120140160180

8090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

%YoY 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1P Feb MarP %MoM sa

Non-durables index 3 3.1 5 1.2 1.1 6 0.7 -0.6Semi-durables index 1 7 8 -1.1 -2.7 -1.2 3.3Durables index 3 -12.0 8.7 22.0 -12.8Services index 3.0 1 3 1 -9.5 -8.2 -21.1 -11.5

less Net tourist spending 3 3 3 -40.6 -48.5 75.0 -26.7

PCI 5 3 4 6 3 1.9 2.0 5.4 -0.6 -4.8

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Source: Bank of Thailand

Private consumption indicators contracted for the first time in five years in most spending categories. Private investment indicators contracted significantly from the same period last year, due to weak external and domestic demand. Meanwhile, public spending, excluding transfers, rebounded owing to gradual reimbursement after the enactment of FY2020 budget.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

7

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

Mar13.9%

Mar12.2%

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

0

10

20

30

40

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

Mar11.1%

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019

FY2019 FY2020Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jan Feb Mar

Revenue 2,513 2,538 615 551 777 595 649 537 199 165 173(%YoY) (6.8) (1.0) (12.8) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.3) (5.5) (-2.5) (-4.0) (-3.2) (0.0)Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 924 719 654 679 796 758 216 186 356(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (-2.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (5.4) (-26.4) (-6.9) (58.0)Budgetary B/L -368 -437 -309 -168 124 -83 -147 -221 -17 -21 -182Non-Budgetary B/L -28 127 -28 -21 123 53 -126 -15 10 -2 -23Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -337 -190 247 -30 -273 -236 -8 -23 -205Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -274 -178 313 -20 -207 -227 -5 -23 -200Net Financing 506 190 84 99 -38 45 76 111 29 28 54Treasury B/L 633 513 380 289 497 513 316 872 338 342 191

Source : Bank of Thailand

Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)

40

50

60

Jan 2014

Jul Jan 2015

Jul Jan 2016

Jul Jan 2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)

Jun 20 43.6

Mar 20

Business Sentiment Index

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

707580859095

100105

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)

Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

8

2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector

The current account registered a lower surplus from both the trade balance, as the value of merchandise imports rose after the Chinese government eased the lockdown measures, and the substantially lower travel receipt. Meanwhile, the capital and financial accounts posted a deficit from both the asset and the liability positions.

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

US (Mar) Euro Area* (Feb) Japan (Feb)

G3 Retail Sales

Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg

Index (Jan 2015 = 100)

Mar 20

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PHINDOMYTHTW

CN

SGKR

Feb 2020 = 20.3 Bn USDEx. gold = 18.8 Bn USD

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarMar

(%MoM)

Agriculture . . -3.6 -13.4 -8.9 -17.8 . . . . Fishery . . -12.0 -1.2 -2.9 0.5 . 2. . . Manufacturing . . -3.5 -4.2 -4.9 -3.5 . .2 .2 .

Agro-manufacturing 2. . -2.3 2.2 -0.7 5.2 . . . . Electronics .2 . -10.4 -2.7 -6.0 0.8 . . . . Electrical

Appliances . . -1.3 4.3 2.8 5.9 . .2 2. .

Automotive . . -3.2 -3.3 -0.5 -6.3 .2 .2 2 .2 . Machinery & Equipment . . -4.8 -7.7 -7.2 -8.2 . . . .

Petroleum Related . . -10.5 -19.3 -17.9 -20.7 . . . . Total (BOP Basis) . .2 -4.0 -2.5 -0.0 -4.9 . . 2.2 2.

Ex. Gold . -4.9 -4.7 -4.8 -4.7 . . . 2. Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related . -4.1 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 2.2 . . .

Export ValueMar 2020 = 20.9 Bn USDEx. gold = 19.6 Bn USD

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarMar

(%MoM)

Consumer . 2. 0.9 4.3 8.9 0.1 . . . . Raw material & Intermediate . . -3.3 -10.3 -7.0 -13.6 . . . .

o/w Fuel . .2 -1.2 -20.0 -11.5 -28.2 . . . . o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel . . -4.1 -6.1 -5.1 -7.2 2. . . .

Capital 2 . 2. -7.1 3.0 4.1 2.0 . 2. . .

Others . . 6.5 -15.8 -29.3 3.8 . . . 2 .

Total (BOP Basis) . . -3.5 -7.2 -6.8 -7.6 . . . .

Ex. Gold . -2.4 -5.5 -2.6 -8.3 . . . . Ex.

Gold&Fuel 2. -2.6 -2.0 -0.5 -3.6 2. . . . %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. 2/ Import of consumer goods In July includes temporarily imported jewellery for exhibition but is excluded in the total import value in BOP basis due to no changes in ownership.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueFeb 2020 = 14.9 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 14.5 Bn USD

Mar 2020 = 18.6 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 17.6 Bn USD

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

9

Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE YTD1. Assets 2 2 TDI 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 2- Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2 2

Thai portfolio investment 2 22 2 - Equity security investment 2 - Debt security investment 2 2

Loans 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 22 - Deposits abroad 2 2

2. Liabilities 2 2 2 2 FDI 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2

Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 22 22 - Equity security investment 2 2 2 2 - Debt security investment 2 2 2 2 2 2

Loans 2 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 2 2- Trade credits 2 2 2 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2

Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2 2 2

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE YTD

Trade Balance 2 . 2. . . . . . 2. .

Exports (f.o.b.) 2 . 2 . 22. . .2 . 2 . 2 . .

%YoY .2 . 2. . . . . 2.2 .

Imports (f.o.b.) 2 . . . . .2 2. . . 2.

%YoY . . .2 . . . . . .

Net Services, Income & Transfers . .2 . . . . . . .

Current Account . . 2 . . . . . . .

Capital and Financial Account 2. . . . . . . . .

Overall Balance . . . . . . . . .

%YoY (Share in 2019)

20192019 2020

%MoMsaH1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP

China (27.6%) . . . . . . . .2 .

Malaysia (10.5%) . . . . .2 2. . .2 .

Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)

. . . . . . . . .

Russia (3.7%) . . . 2. . . . . 2 .

Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)

. . . 2. . . . . .

India (5.0%) 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . . 2 . . .

Others (9.6%) . . . . 2. .2 2 . . . Total(million persons)

.2 (39.8)

. (19.8)

. (20.0)

.2 .

. (10.3)

. (6.7)

2. (2.1)

. (0.8)

.

Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

10

2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions

Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.

Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

-120-80-40

04080

120160200240280

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20

MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)

BusinessHousehold

%

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Billion baht

Changes in Total Corporate Financing

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

Mar 20P

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y

Government Bond Yields

Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA

As of 24 Apr 20

0.750.92

0.70

1.24

0.55

Commercial Bank Interest Rates*% p.a. 2018 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q /19 Q4/19 Mar 20 24 Apr 20

-month deposit rate

Average of 5 largest Thai banks**

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MLR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MRR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

1.37

1.46

1.11

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.46

8.54

1.42

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.47

8.54

1.46

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.50

8.54

1.4

1.

1.1

6.28

7.31

7.58

8.

8.54

1.33

1.51

1.11

6.08

7.31

7.59

8.

8.44

0.75

1.26

0.84

5.93

7.22

7.41

6.64

8.24

8.32

0.75

1.21

0.74

5.53

6.77

7.02

6.24

7.25

8.03

End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya

Source: Bank of Thailand

Compared with the previous month, total corporate financing accelerated due to an increase in business credits. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in March 2020 and the NEER depreciated from the previous month.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

11

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

% p.a.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

29-D

ec-1

730

-Jan-

1827

-Feb

-18

28-M

ar-1

830

-Apr

-18

30-M

ay-1

827

-Jun-

1825

-Jul-1

827

-Aug

-18

24-S

ep-1

824

-Oct

-18

21-N

ov-1

821

-Dec

-18

22-Ja

n-19

20-F

eb-1

920

-Mar

-19

22-A

pr-1

923

-May

-19

21-Ju

n-19

19-Ju

l-19

20-A

ug-1

917

-Sep

-19

16-O

ct-1

914

-Nov

-19

16-D

ec-1

915

-Jan-

2013

-Feb

-20

12-M

ar-2

010

-Apr

-20

HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD

As of 24 Apr 2020

Regional Exchange Rate Volatility

-9.6%

-4.6%-4.0% -3.1% -2.5%

-2.0% -1.9%-0.5% -0.5% -0.3%

0.1%1.4% 2.4%

-3.4%

0.3%

-2.3%

-1.2% -1.7%-0.3%-0.6%

0.6%

-0.6% -0.8%

0.1%

-1.7%

-0.4%

-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%

IDR GBP INR MYR THB KRW SGD PHP VND CNY TWD EUR JPY

Avg of Mar 20 compared to avg of Feb 20

Avg of Apr 20 compared to avg of Mar 20

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Exchange Rate Movement

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132

29-D

ec-1

7

16-F

eb-1

8

5-Ap

r-18

28-M

ay-1

8

13-Ju

l-18

3-Se

p-18

19-O

ct-1

8

7-De

c-18

28-Ja

n-19

15-M

ar-1

9

8-M

ay-1

9

26-Ju

n-19

14-A

ug-1

9

30-S

ep-1

9

18-N

ov-1

9

8-Ja

n-20

25-F

eb-2

0

13-A

pr-2

0

NEER25

USDTHB (RHS)

Note: Monthly average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)

Appreciation

Apr USDTHB = 32.66NEER25 = 120.51

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

12

2.5 Financial Stability

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)

Headline inflation contribution%YoY

Mar-0.54%( ) Share in Headline Inflation

80859095

100105110115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%)Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%)

Employment Index

Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing Census.( ) denotes share in total employment

Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014=100)

0.5

1.0

1.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2018 2019 2020

Unemployment Rate%

Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing CensusSource: Labor Force Survey, NSO

Unemployment rate (Feb = 1.1 % ; Mar = 1.0%)Unemployment rate (sa) (Feb = 1.1 % ; Mar = 1.0%)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 16% of total jobless claims

Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33 %, SA %, SA

Jobless Claims

Note: Employees who contribute to social security system (Section ) account for % of total employment.

Source: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand

EmploymentThousand persons sa, 3mma

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS)Not in Labor Force (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Not in Labor Force (sa) (RHS)

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

Thousand persons sa, 3mma

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Core inflation contribution%YoY

Mar0.54%

( ) Share in Core Inflation

Headline inflation became negative for the first time in 33 months, following the shrink in energy prices. Labor market was more vulnerable. External stability remained resilient, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

13

External Stability Indicators

Criteria 2019P2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE

Solvency Indicators

Current Account / GDP (%)

Debt / GDP (%) < /

Debt / XGS1/ (%) < / 53.0

Debt Service Ratio (%) 6.8 6.7 0 7.5

Liquidity Indicators

Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time 3.9

Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times 10.1

ST Debt / Total Debt (%) 34.5

Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)

Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

External Debt Outstanding

Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Billion USD 2019P 2019P 2020P Change Mar20-Feb20H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE

1. General government 2. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 4. Other Sectors

- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit

5. Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%)

The Number of Firms and Employees Registered for the Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75)

Note: The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.

Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour

33,46542,051 40,102

22,842

39,303

92,264

Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

Firms Employees

114 163 161 113 153

445

42

44

46

48

50

52

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total Non-Agricutural Manufacturing ConstructionTrade Service

Non-Agricultural Labors’ Average Working HoursHour

SA 3MMA

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

14

3. Link to related statistics and contents

Agricultural sector

Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices

Agricultural production: Agricultural products

More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th

Manufacturing sector

Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)

Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate

More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th

Real estate sector

Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)

More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance

Central government revenue: Government revenue

Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)

Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)

More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th

Labor market

Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)

Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)

Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)

More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

15

Inflation

Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)

More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th

Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index

Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report

Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2020

16

Contact

Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637

Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650

Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300

Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096

Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647

Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639

Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877

The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147

External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726

Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186

Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090

Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645

Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636