economic implications of changing food consumption patterns franco sassi phd oecd – health...
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ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
OF CHANGING FOOD
CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
Franco Sassi PhDOECD – Health Division
Rome, 14th November 2013
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UN High-level Meeting on NCDs
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Leading Risk Factors for HealthAttributable Mortality, 2004
Source: WHO, 2009
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2004 2015 20300
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
High income Higer-middle incomeLower-middle income Low income
Deaths from NCDsWorldwide, by Income Group
Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008
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Obesity: a Global Epidemic
India
China
Russia
OECD
Brazil
S Africa
UK
Mexico
% of adult population
0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
• In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas
• Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US
• Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China
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The OECD/WHO CDP Model
Physical activityadequate physical actinsuff .physical act
Body mass index
normal weightpre-obesityobesity
Blood pressurenormalhypertension
Cholesterolnormal
hypercholesterolemia
Glycaemianormaldiabetes
Cancers
Stroke
Ischemic heart
disease
Fatlow fat intakemedium fat intakehigh fat intake
Fibreadequate fibre intakelow fibre intake
Socio-economic statusupperlower
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A Comprehensive & Affordable Prevention Package
OECD Countries Emerging Economies
Mass media campaigns Mass media campaigns
Compulsory food labelling Compulsory food labelling
Industry self-regulation of food advertising to children
Government regulation of food advertising to children
Physician-dietician counselling Fiscal measures
School-based interventions
Canada Europe Brazil China
24.03 $/cap 22.45 $/cap 0.40 $/cap 0.20 $/cap
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What Can Prevention Achieve?
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Prevention Keeps HealthyYears of Life Free of NCDs
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 490
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
80000000
90000000
100000000
Time (years)
Mil
lion
lif
e ye
ars
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 490
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
80000000
90000000
100000000
Time (years)
Mil
lion
lif
e ye
ars
Europe China Brazil Canada
Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast) Cardiovascular diseases
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An Affordable Prevention Package
0
1
2
3
4
5
Tobacco useAlcohol use
US
$ p
er
head
4.5
1.2
0.4
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Prevention is a Good InvestmentImpact on Health Expenditure
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
EuropeCanadaBrazilChina
Time (years)
$ /
capit
a
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% Decrease Rrequired in Fat Consumption
COUNTRIES % decrease on average (2012-2021)
Argentina -0.9
Australia -1.4
Brazil -0.9
Canada -1.2
Chile -0.9
China -0.8
European Union -1.1
India -0.7
Japan -0.8
Korea -0.8
Mexico -1.4
New Zealand -1.4
Russian Federation -0.8
United States -1.4
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Scenario 1 Results
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Atlantic beef world price
% differ-ence
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Cheese world price% differ-ence
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-3
-2
-1
0
Vegetable oil world price
% differ-ence
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-3
-2
-1
0
Coarse grains world price
% difference
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SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines
EU NZL AUS USA BRA RUS ARG MEX CHN
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Reductions to meet 10% calorie intake
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Scenario2 Results
baseline scenario 10%
baseline scenario 10 %
Consumption Production
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Bovine consumption and production (kt)
USABRAE27CHN
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Pacific beef and veal price (USD/t)
baseline
scenario
Scenario2 Results
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Vegetable oil world price
baseline
scenario
Scenario2 Results
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Key Policy Implications
• Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues
• Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy
• Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains
• Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term