economic intelligence...economic intelligence: u.s. consumer confidence key takeaways (week of...

E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE:U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

WEEK OF 01/06/2020 - 01/12/2020


Morning Consult uses the same 5 questions that the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers uses to measure consumer sentiment.1

QUESTION #1 : PERSONAL FINANCES – CURRENT CONDITION

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days.

Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

QUESTION #2: PERSONAL FINANCES – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

QUESTION #3: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

QUESTION #4: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

QUESTION #5: CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS

About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television,

and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

MONTH L Y : U N I V E R S I T Y O F M I C H I G A N

The Survey of Consumers is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 600 cellular phone interviews with adults living in households in the coterminous United States. Preliminary results are released mid-month based on the first two weeks of interviews, which reflects about two thirds of the full monthly sample.

DA I L Y : M O R N I N G C O N S U L T

The Economic Intelligence Survey is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 7,500 daily and 210,000 monthly online interviews with adults living in households across the entire United States. Final results are released daily, which allows for unprecedented analysis of breaking news across geographic regions, economic variables, and demographic characteristics.

M E T H O D O L O G Y

Overall, the methodology used to measure trends in the economic expectations of consumers is in a state of flux. Rapid changes in technology and social media are unlikely to slow anytime soon. It is hard to imagine that in 10 or 20 years the measurement methodology will not have been transformed in some as yet undetermined ways. The fast pace of technological and social change must be confronted with a robust research methodology that preserves a consistent series of high quality measurements on economic expectations.

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PROFESSOR RICHARD CURTIN 7TH JOINT EC / OECD WORKSHOP: NOVEMBER 30, 2015

WHY WE CREATED MORNING CONSULT ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE

Frequency + Scale = Key Improvements

Same Standard Questions Used to Calculate U.S. Consumer Confidence Indices

1. See University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, "Index Calculations.". Available at https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770 2


T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

Key TakeawaysWeekly Dashboard

2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

6-Week Snapshot: U.S. Daily Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Indices Over Time

C O N S U M E R I N D I C E S

Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC)

I N D I V I D U A L Q U E S T I O N S

Personal Finances: Current ConditionsPersonal Finances: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 5 Year ExpectationsCurrent Buying Conditions

M E T H O D O L O G Y

67

8

9

10

112437

5053565962

66


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



KEY TAKEAWAYS(Week of 01/06/2020 - 01/12/2020)

6

As tensions with Iran escalated last week, U.S. consumer confidence continued to fall. But after the president’s Wednesday declaration that our country is “ready to embrace peace with all who seek it,” confidence stabilized and rebounded across all demographic and geographic groups.

Today marks the signing of an official trade agreement between the U.S. and China, but if the agreement deviates from expectations, consumer confidence has the potential to take a step backwards.

• Consumer Confidence Stabilizes Following President Trump’s Speech to the Nation on Iran: Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) fell to 112.8 for the week ending on Jan. 12, marking the first weekly decline since early October 2019. While consumer confidence continued to fall early in the week as tensions with Iran heightened, it rebounded on Thursday following the president’s address to the nation on Wednesday. As of Jan. 12, consumer confidence is now stable and remains elevated relative to the past two years. (Slides 8 and 9)

• Reaction to Iran Transcends Demographics: Virtually all American consumers reacted negatively to the U.S.- Iran conflict regardless of age, education, gender, race, income or wealth. In fact, reactions across party lines, political ideologies and geographies were not only essentially identical but even more similar than across other demographics. This week’s data reinforces that in times of heightened geopolitical tensions, Americans still view the world through the same lens. (Slides 13-15, 20-23)

• Wall Street Is More Optimistic than Consumers: Consumers reacted more strongly last week to the U.S.-Iran conflict than financial markets. The Dow shrugged off heightened geopolitical tensions to break 29,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 quickly stabilized after an initial fall. By comparison, consumer expectations of business conditions over the next year fell by more than 3 points last week. In a broader context, both consumer confidence and stock markets remain elevated by historical standards. (Slide 57)

• U.S.-China Signing Ceremony Poses Downside Risk: The U.S. and China are set to sign the phase-one trade deal today, offering the first opportunity to see its details. Markets, commentators and consumers have already incorporated the basic terms of the deal into their future expectations, but if there’s any variance from the expected, consumer confidence may take a step backwards.


WEEKLY DASHBOARD(Week of 01/06/2020 - 01/12/2020)

Value Weekly Change* Intraweek Volatility 30-Day Trend

ICS (Consumer Sentiment) 112.8 ↓ 2.0 Stable Increasing

ICE (Future Expectations) 113.2 ↓ 2.1 Stable Increasing

ICC (Current Conditions) 112.2 ↓ 1.7 Stable Increasing

Personal Finances: Current Conditions 103.7 ↓ 1.6 Stable Increasing

Personal Finances: 12 Month Expectations 129.6 ↓ 1.2 Stable Increasing

Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations 111.3 ↓ 3.2 Elevated Increasing

Business Conditions: 5 Year Expectations 98.6 ↓ 2.0 Elevated Increasing

Current Buying Conditions 120.8 ↓ 1.8 Elevated Increasing

*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 7


10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

8/1/19: Trump confirms increase in tariffs on Chinese goods

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods3/1/18: U.S.

trade war begins

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20

Index of Consumer Sentiment (Jan 1, 2018 – Jan 12, 2020)

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods

10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

3/1/19: U.S. trade war begins

8/14/19: 10-2 yield curve inverts

11/15/19: All yield curves uninvert

10/11/19: US announces “phase one” trade deal with China

8/1/19: Trump confirms tariff increase on Chinese goods

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Inde

x (O

nlin

e)

Morning Consult Daily Morning Consult Monthly

7,500/day 210,000/month

University of Michigan Monthly

600/month

Michigan Index (P

hone)

Note: There are three primary reasons why Morning Consult and the University of Michigan appear on different axes: (1) Michigan deflates its values so that 1966 serves as its base year, which is not appropriate for Morning Consult’s data; (2) a higher percentage of survey respondents answer “Don’t Know” or “No Opinion” in Morning Consult’s Economic Intelligence Survey, thus providing a richer data set in terms of measuring respondents’ uncertainty; and (3) Morning Consult’s dramatically larger sample sizes reduce a mean-adjusted measure of variance.

8

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

01/02/20:US kills Iranian general


6-Week Snapshot Analysis: Daily U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

9

110.3

111.5

111.1110.6

111.4

111.5

112.7

111.4

113.2

112

111.4

112.9

111.2

112.3

112.3 112.2

112

112.8112.8

112.2

111.4111.1

111.6

112.8111.8

112.8112.2

111.5

113.3113.9

113

112.8113.4

114 113.9

114.7115.2

113.9

115

114.5

115.1

115.9

114.7

114.9

113.4

112.4112.1

111.6

112.7

113.8 113.5

113.3

106

109

113

117

94

96

100

102

11/22/19

11/25/19

11/28/19

12/0

1/19

12/0

4/19

12/0

7/19

12/10

/19

12/13

/19

12/16

/19

12/19

/19

12/2

2/19

12/2

5/19

12/2

8/19

12/3

1/19

01/03/2

0

01/06/2

0

01/09/2

0

01/12/2

0

Morning Consult Daily (7,500/day)

University of Michigan Monthly (600/month)

12/6/19: November jobs report beats expectations

12/13/19: US and China announce completion of “Phase One” trade deal

12/20/19: November household income gains beat expectations

01/02/20: US kills Iranian general and oil prices increase

01/08/20: President Trump announces U.S. “ready to embrace peace”

01/07/20: Iran counterstrikes bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops


CONSUMER INDICES(7-Day Moving Average Over Past 365 Days)

10

100

105

110

115

120

Feb-2019

Mar-2

019

Apr-2019

May-2

019

Jun-2

019

Jul-2

019

Aug-2019

Sep-2019

Oct-2019

Nov-2019

Dec-2019

Jan-2

020

ICC (Current Conditions) ICE (Future Expectations) ICS (Consumer Sentiment)


INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)



INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT ( ICS ) OVER T IME(Weekly)

W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W

112.8 114.8 104.5(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/12/2020)

12

106.1105

104.5

106.7

109.4

108.6

109.7

109.7

110.5

109.5

110.3

111

110.7 110.7

111

111.7112.6

111.1

110.3

110 110109.9

110.4

111.4

111

112.3

111.7111.8

111.8

111.7

109.6

107.7

107.3107

107.7

108.3

107.7

108.5108.4

108.2 108.4

109.1109.3110.2

110.8

111.3111.8

112112.1

112.7

114

114.8

112.8

105

110

115

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0


KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(01/06/2020 - 01/12/2020)



Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low

Demo: Age

18-24 113.7 ↓ 0.9 115.8 108.2

25-34 116.9 ↓ 2.7 119.5 110.0

35-44 115.3 ↓ 0.6 115.9 105.0

45-54 112.2 ↓ 1.9 114.1 103.2

55-64 110.0 ↓ 3.4 113.5 101.0

65+ 109.7 ↓ 1.7 111.3 100.0

Demo: Gender

Male 118.6 ↓ 1.1 119.6 110.5

Female 107.4 ↓ 2.8 110.2 98.9






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 106.9 ↓ 1.7 108.6 99.1

$50K-$100K 119.4 ↓ 1.6 121.1 110.9

$100K+ 124.6 ↓ 1.8 126.4 116.0

$100K-$150K 123.7 ↓ 2.6 126.4 115.4

$150-$200K 125.4 ↓ 2.2 128.6 114.3

$200-$250K 124.8 ↑ 0.6 129.6 110.6

$250K+ 129.5 ↑ 3.7 131.8 115.7






Demo: Education

Less Than College 112.2 ↓ 2.0 114.2 104.2

Bachelor's Degree 115.6 ↓ 1.7 117.3 106.0

Post-Grad 111.7 ↓ 2.0 113.7 102.2

Demo: Race/Ethnicity

African American 110.1 ↓ 2.4 113.4 98.5

Hispanic 113.6 ↓ 2.2 116.1 105.0

Other 108.3 ↓ 2.5 110.7 102.4

White 113.3 ↓ 1.8 115.1 105.4






Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)

Educational Services 114.7 ↓ 1.7 116.4 99.9

Financial Activities 127.6 ↑ 2.5 127.6 112.9

Health Care 118.1 ↓ 1.3 119.4 107.1

Information 120.3 ↓ 2.2 122.5 111.0

Leisure and Hospitality 110.6 ↓ 1.4 119.9 98.3

Professional and Business Services 120.2 ↓ 0.4 120.6 107.3

Real Estate and Property 128.2 ↑ 6.9 134.1 114.2

Retail Trade 116.7 ↓ 2.3 119.1 107.8

Transportation 123.7 ↓ 1.4 127.5 112.3






Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)

Agriculture 122.8 ↓ 2.0 130.8 109.6

Construction 125.6 ↓ 0.4 131.0 118.1

Manufacturing 125.0 ↓ 1.1 127.3 117.0

Demo: Employment Industry (Other)

Defense 123.9 ↓ 9.8 137.7 108.1

Other 114.7 ↓ 1.2 116.7 108.7

Public Administration 122.4 ↑ 20.6 127.5 97.1






Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder

Total 123.3 ↓ 0.6 124.2 113.4

Businesses with 1-5 Employees 117.6 ↓ 1.1 120.4 108.0


Businesses with 21-100 Employees 132.6 ↑ 6.2 139.0 113.9

Businesses with More than 101 Employees 156.1 ↑ 4.1 157.5 122.5

Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development

Works in Sales or Business Development 120.5 ↓ 3.4 123.9 114.0






Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics

Total 121.4 0.0 121.8 112.7





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 122.6 ↑ 2.7 123.8 110.3

Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 125.2 ↑ 0.2 126.0 108.7






Demo: Housing Assets

Homeowners 116.3 ↓ 1.9 118.2 107.4

Renters 109.1 ↓ 1.6 110.7 101.5

Other 103.6 ↓ 3.4 107.0 97.6

Demo: Equity Market Investments

$50K+ 120.6 ↓ 1.7 122.7 111.4

Less than $50K 118.4 ↓ 1.3 119.7 109.3

None 107.6 ↓ 1.9 109.6 99.9

Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments

Total 121.8 ↓ 2.0 123.9 112.0






Demo: Daily Media Consumers

The New York Times 108.5 ↑ 4.3 114.3 92.4

The Wall Street Journal 124.0 ↑ 1.8 132.1 105.4

Fox News Channel 141.6 ↑ 1.7 144.9 127.6

CNN 98.7 ↓ 5.0 105.1 90.4

MSNBC 92.9 ↓ 1.7 102.5 85.2

Twitter 117.8 ↓ 1.1 118.9 108.9

Facebook 114.3 ↓ 2.0 116.3 105.4






Demo: Political Ideology

Conservative 137.3 ↓ 1.2 138.5 127.6

Liberal 95.2 ↓ 2.1 97.3 87.3

Moderate 106.8 ↓ 2.4 109.2 99.2

Demo: Trump Approval

Approve 140.2 ↓ 1.4 141.6 134.5

Disapprove 92.1 ↓ 2.3 94.4 84.1

Demo: 2016 Presidential Election

Republican Donald Trump 142.2 ↓ 1.1 143.3 133.8

Democrat Hillary Clinton 90.1 ↓ 2.5 92.6 80.9

Someone Else 99.3 ↓ 3.2 102.6 92.6


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/06/2020 - 01/12/2020)

ICS


Federal Reserve Districts

Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value103.9 to 109.9109.9 to 111.3111.3 to 115.5115.5 to 118.7

Districts ValueWeekly

Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 103.9 ↓ 2.4 107.0 97.6

New York (2) 111.5 ↓ 0.3 112.0 102.9

Philadelphia (3) 109.2 ↓ 3.7 113.0 100.1

Cleveland (4) 111.4 ↓ 1.4 112.8 103.5

Richmond (5) 115.2 ↓ 2.4 117.6 106.2

Atlanta (6) 118.7 ↓ 2.2 120.9 110.2

Chicago (7) 110.9 ↓ 2.5 113.4 102.3

St. Louis (8) 116.4 ↓ 0.3 117.8 104.2

Minneapolis (9) 110.1 ↓ 2.7 114.4 102.7

Kansas City (10) 111.3 ↓ 1.6 112.9 104.2

Dallas (11) 118.4 ↓ 0.7 119.8 108.2

San Francisco (12) 109.5 ↓ 2.5 112.0 101.3


INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)



INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS ( ICE ) OVER T IME(Weekly)


113.2 115.3 104.4(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/12/2020)

25

105.5

104.6

104.4

106.7

110

108.8

109.7

109.8110.5

109.4

110.2

110.9

110.2110.4

110.9

112

113.3

111.3

110.3

109.9

110.1

109.7

110.4

111.4

111

112.8

112112 112

111.6

109.6

107

106.2 106.3107.1

107.8

107.1

108.1

108.1

108.2108.1

109.4

109.6111111.2

111.7112112.6

113113.5

114.2

115.3

113.2

105

110

115

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0






Demo: Age

18-24 115.3 ↓ 0.2 117.6 108.4

25-34 120.1 ↓ 2.3 122.4 111.9

35-44 117.6 ↓ 0.8 118.3 106.6

45-54 113.2 ↓ 2.8 116.0 104.3

55-64 108.6 ↓ 4.1 112.7 99.4

65+ 106.4 ↓ 1.7 108.0 96.3

Demo: Gender

Male 119.4 ↓ 0.7 120.1 110.3

Female 107.3 ↓ 3.5 110.8 98.7






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 108.7 ↓ 2.0 110.7 100.4

$50K-$100K 118.6 ↓ 1.7 120.3 109.0

$100K+ 121.1 ↓ 2.2 123.3 110.4

$100K-$150K 120.9 ↓ 2.8 123.8 110.3

$150-$200K 121.1 ↓ 3.1 124.7 108.1

$200-$250K 117.7 ↓ 0.6 124.8 103.4

$250K+ 125.7 ↑ 3.8 128.6 108.9






Demo: Education



Post-Grad 108.4 ↓ 2.4 110.8 97.8



Hispanic 115.1 ↓ 2.2 118.1 106.0

Other 108.6 ↓ 2.7 111.3 100.2

White 113.3 ↓ 2.0 115.2 104.9









Health Care 117.9 ↓ 2.8 120.7 105.5

Information 118.7 ↓ 2.9 121.8 108.6


Professional and Business Services 118.6 ↑ 0.1 119.0 104.3


Retail Trade 118.9 ↓ 0.8 120.6 108.2

Transportation 126.1 ↓ 1.4 130.8 112.8







Agriculture 126.6 ↓ 2.9 135.8 108.7

Construction 129.0 ↑ 0.6 133.9 119.6

Manufacturing 125.9 ↓ 1.8 127.7 115.3


Defense 123.0 ↓ 6.9 134.1 106.2

Other 115.4 ↓ 1.3 117.0 107.3








Total 124.8 ↓ 0.2 125.5 113.8













Total 123.0 ↑ 0.1 123.5 112.1






Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 124.9 ↓ 1.0 127.0 106.3







Homeowners 115.3 ↓ 2.2 117.5 106.2

Renters 111.0 ↓ 1.7 112.7 102.5

Other 107.0 ↓ 3.6 110.6 100.2


$50K+ 116.7 ↓ 2.2 118.9 107.1

Less than $50K 119.3 ↓ 1.3 120.6 108.9

None 109.8 ↓ 2.1 112.0 101.5


Total 117.7 ↓ 2.3 120.0 107.5









Fox News Channel 142.2 ↑ 1.1 146.4 130.0

CNN 95.4 ↓ 4.3 101.7 84.8

MSNBC 87.4 ↓ 3.0 98.1 79.0

Twitter 117.8 ↓ 0.9 118.6 107.7

Facebook 115.2 ↓ 2.3 117.5 105.8







Conservative 140.1 ↓ 1.3 141.3 129.6

Liberal 92.2 ↓ 2.3 94.7 83.1

Moderate 106.3 ↓ 2.5 108.9 98.6


Approve 144.4 ↓ 1.2 145.5 138.8

Disapprove 89.1 ↓ 2.8 91.8 80.3




Someone Else 97.1 ↓ 4.5 101.6 90.3


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/06/2020 - 01/12/2020)

ICE



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value103.0 to 110.2110.2 to 111.1111.1 to 116.7116.7 to 120.1


Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 103.0 ↓ 2.6 105.7 95.5

New York (2) 110.5 ↓ 1.2 112.2 101.8

Philadelphia (3) 108.9 ↓ 3.4 112.4 98.8

Cleveland (4) 111.1 ↓ 1.3 112.5 102.9

Richmond (5) 115.5 ↓ 3.0 118.5 105.6

Atlanta (6) 120.1 ↓ 2.3 122.4 111.5

Chicago (7) 110.7 ↓ 2.9 113.6 100.9

St. Louis (8) 117.9 ↓ 0.7 118.7 104.2

Minneapolis (9) 110.7 ↓ 1.3 114.0 99.8

Kansas City (10) 112.4 ↓ 1.3 113.7 104.6

Dallas (11) 119.6 ↓ 1.7 121.8 109.7

San Francisco (12) 109.8 ↓ 2.1 112.0 100.8


INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)



INDEX OF CURRENT CONDIT IONS ( ICC) OVER T IME(Weekly)


112.2 114.0 104.5(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/12/2020)

38

107.1

105.4

104.5

106.6

108.5108.4

109.7 109.7

110.4

109.8

110.3

111.1

111.4

111.1111.1

111.2111.6

110.8110.2

110.1109.8

110.2

110.4

111.2 111

111.6

111.2111.4

111.6 111.9

109.7

108.8

109

108

108.7

109.1

108.6

109.2

108.8108.2

108.9

108.7

108.8 109.1

110.3 110.6

111.6 111.2

110.8

111.4

113.7114

112.2

102

105

108

111

114

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0






Demo: Age

18-24 111.4 ↓ 1.9 114.6 107.4

25-34 112.0 ↓ 3.2 115.2 107.3

35-44 111.8 ↓ 0.4 112.5 102.5

45-54 110.9 ↓ 0.5 113.1 101.5

55-64 112.2 ↓ 2.4 114.6 103.5

65+ 114.6 ↓ 1.7 116.3 105.4

Demo: Gender

Male 117.2 ↓ 1.7 118.9 110.3

Female 107.6 ↓ 1.8 109.4 99.2






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 104.2 ↓ 1.2 105.4 97.1

$50K-$100K 120.7 ↓ 1.6 122.3 113.0

$100K+ 129.9 ↓ 1.3 132.1 122.2

$100K-$150K 127.9 ↓ 2.4 130.3 121.1

$150-$200K 132.0 ↓ 0.8 136.3 121.1

$200-$250K 135.4 ↑ 2.6 136.9 121.5

$250K+ 135.2 ↑ 3.6 138.9 124.1






Demo: Education



Post-Grad 116.6 ↓ 1.3 117.9 107.1



Hispanic 111.4 ↓ 2.3 114.1 103.6

Other 107.8 ↓ 2.2 111.1 102.0

White 113.4 ↓ 1.5 114.9 105.7









Health Care 118.5 ↑ 1.0 118.5 109.4

Information 122.8 ↓ 1.1 124.2 112.6


Professional and Business Services 122.6 ↓ 1.0 123.6 108.6


Retail Trade 113.5 ↓ 4.6 118.1 106.9

Transportation 119.9 ↓ 1.4 123.2 110.3







Agriculture 117.0 ↓ 0.7 127.9 104.8

Construction 120.4 ↓ 2.0 127.5 115.7

Manufacturing 123.5 ↓ 0.1 127.1 118.1


Defense 125.3 ↓ 14.2 143.0 102.9

Other 113.7 ↓ 1.1 116.2 108.6








Total 121.0 ↓ 1.3 122.2 112.2













Total 119.0 ↓ 0.2 121.2 113.7






Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 125.7 ↑ 2.0 125.7 112.4







Homeowners 117.9 ↓ 1.5 119.5 109.2

Renters 106.2 ↓ 1.5 107.7 99.9

Other 98.5 ↓ 3.1 101.6 93.5


$50K+ 126.5 ↓ 1.0 128.3 117.0

Less than $50K 117.0 ↓ 1.3 118.3 110.0

None 104.4 ↓ 1.6 106.0 97.4


Total 127.8 ↓ 1.4 130.0 118.2









Fox News Channel 140.6 ↑ 2.6 142.6 123.7

CNN 103.5 ↓ 5.9 110.2 96.5

MSNBC 101.3 ↑ 0.2 109.1 92.3

Twitter 117.8 ↓ 1.5 119.3 109.9

Facebook 112.9 ↓ 1.7 114.5 104.8







Conservative 133.2 ↓ 1.0 134.3 124.3

Liberal 99.5 ↓ 1.8 101.3 92.8

Moderate 107.4 ↓ 2.3 109.7 100.2


Approve 133.9 ↓ 1.8 135.6 127.2

Disapprove 96.6 ↓ 1.6 98.2 89.7




Someone Else 102.6 ↓ 1.4 105.9 96.1


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/06/2020 - 01/12/2020)

ICC



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value105.3 to 109.3109.3 to 111.5111.5 to 113.8113.8 to 116.6


Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 105.3 ↓ 2.2 109.5 100.9

New York (2) 113.1 ↑ 1.1 113.1 104.1

Philadelphia (3) 109.7 ↓ 4.1 113.9 101.9

Cleveland (4) 111.8 ↓ 1.5 113.3 104.3

Richmond (5) 114.9 ↓ 1.5 116.4 107.0

Atlanta (6) 116.6 ↓ 1.9 118.6 108.2

Chicago (7) 111.3 ↓ 1.8 113.1 103.8

St. Louis (8) 114.0 ↑ 0.2 116.5 103.8

Minneapolis (9) 109.2 ↓ 4.8 114.9 104.3

Kansas City (10) 109.7 ↓ 2.0 112.0 102.6

Dallas (11) 116.6 ↑ 0.8 116.8 106.0

San Francisco (12) 109.0 ↓ 3.1 112.1 102.1


PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



PERSONAL F INANCES: CURRENT CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


103.7 105.4 97.6(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/12/2020)

51

99.6

98.4

97.6

98.9

100.2100

101.5

101.1

102.3

101.6102

102.7

103.7

102.7

103103

103.3

102.7102.6

101.9 101.8

102.5

102.6

103.3

102.6

103.4

103103.2

103.7104.2

101.6

100.9

101.4

100

101.2

101.3

100.5

101.3

100.8

100100.699.8

99.7 99.8

101.3100.6

102.1

101.2

101

101.8

104.9

105.4

103.7

97.5

100.0

102.5

105.0

107.5

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 105.6 ↓ 3.8 111.7 102.5

25-34 106.0 ↓ 3.4 109.5 101.6

35-44 104.0 0.0 105.7 97.3

45-54 102.0 ↑ 0.3 104.3 93.9

55-64 102.1 ↓ 1.3 103.5 94.1

65+ 103.3 ↓ 2.1 105.4 93.3

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 93.1 ↓ 1.2 94.3 88.0

$50K-$100K 114.3 ↓ 1.5 115.8 108.1

$100K+ 128.1 ↓ 0.1 128.7 120.7

$100K-$150K 125.1 ↓ 1.3 126.7 119.2

$150-$200K 130.9 ↑ 0.1 132.3 118.9

$200-$250K 138.6 ↑ 3.4 138.6 118.8

$250K+ 136.2 ↑ 6.4 139.6 123.1


PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



PERSONAL F INANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


129.6 130.8 125.6(12/30/2019) (09/02/2019)(As of 01/12/2020)

54

126.7

126.9

126.5

127.2

128.9

127.7

128127.8

128

127.7

128.9

129.3

129.2

128.3

129.1

130.2130.5

128.8

128.7

127.9

128.6

127.9

126.9

128.4

128.2

129.9

128.8 128.8

128.5

128.6

127.8

126.8

126.1

125.8125.6

125.8

125.6

126.6

126.2

126.7

126.3

127.8127.4

128.4128.7

129

127.9

128.8

129.5

129.5

129.4

130.8

129.6

125.0

127.5

130.0

132.5

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 142.1 ↑ 1.6 144.6 136.3

25-34 147.3 ↓ 1.5 149.3 143.3

35-44 140.2 ↑ 0.6 141.0 134.1

45-54 130.3 ↓ 1.0 131.6 124.0

55-64 117.8 ↓ 4.2 121.9 113.2

65+ 107.9 ↓ 1.2 109.1 102.3

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 126.4 ↓ 0.6 127.9 122.5

$50K-$100K 133.2 ↓ 1.6 134.7 127.8

$100K+ 136.4 ↓ 1.8 138.1 129.9

$100K-$150K 135.8 ↓ 2.1 138.1 130.0

$150-$200K 137.0 ↓ 4.9 142.0 128.9

$200-$250K 134.3 ↓ 0.2 142.0 127.3

$250K+ 140.8 ↑ 6.1 141.2 126.6


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


111.3 114.5 98.8(12/30/2019) (01/14/2019)(As of 01/12/2020)

57

100.298.8

98.8

102.3

106.7

105.5

106.9

107.1

108.4

107

108

109

107.8

108.7109.2

110.2

112.5

109.6

107.4

107.5

107.1107

109.1

109.9109.4

110.5110.7

110.9

111.3

109.8

106.8

103.1

101.9 102.4

103.7

104.8104.1

105.2

105.2

104.8105.4

106.5

107.5

108.9 109.3110.2 110.9

111.3112113.1

114

114.5

111.3

100

105

110

115

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 109.5 ↓ 2.4 113.3 101.1

25-34 111.8 ↓ 4.2 116.0 99.9

35-44 111.7 ↓ 1.8 113.5 96.5

45-54 110.1 ↓ 4.3 114.4 98.7

55-64 110.1 ↓ 5.1 115.2 96.1

65+ 113.7 ↓ 1.4 115.7 97.5

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 106.6 ↓ 3.5 110.1 95.2

$50K-$100K 117.2 ↓ 1.9 119.2 102.4

$100K+ 119.2 ↓ 3.5 123.2 104.3

$100K-$150K 118.7 ↓ 4.0 123.0 103.7

$150-$200K 119.1 ↓ 3.7 126.0 101.2

$200-$250K 117.0 ↓ 3.0 124.0 94.7

$250K+ 125.6 ↑ 1.0 130.7 102.3


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


98.6 100.6 88.0(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/12/2020)

60

89.6

88.2

88

90.6

94.4

93.294.1

94.395.1

93.4

93.894.4

93.794.1

94.5

95.8

96.9

95.6

94.894.4

94.5

94.3

95.2

96

95.3

97.9

96.7

96.4 96.3

96.3

94.1

91

90.6 90.8

91.9

92.7

91.792.4

92.9

93.1

92.6

93.893.9

95.695.6

95.9

97.2

97.7

97.4

97.9

99.2

100.6

98.6

90

95

100

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 94.3 ↑ 0.2 97.4 87.2

25-34 101.1 ↓ 1.3 102.5 89.0

35-44 100.8 ↓ 1.0 101.8 87.0

45-54 99.0 ↓ 3.1 102.1 87.6

55-64 97.9 ↓ 3.1 101.0 86.2

65+ 97.6 ↓ 2.4 100.0 87.9

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 93.2 ↓ 1.9 95.2 82.9

$50K-$100K 105.4 ↓ 1.5 106.9 93.5

$100K+ 107.8 ↓ 1.2 109.6 96.2

$100K-$150K 108.3 ↓ 2.4 110.7 96.4

$150-$200K 107.0 ↓ 0.8 110.7 92.1

$200-$250K 101.8 ↑ 1.4 114.1 84.6

$250K+ 110.6 ↑ 4.3 116.3 95.5


CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



CURRENT BUYING CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


120.8 122.5 111.5(12/23/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/12/2020)

63

114.5

112.4

111.5

114.2

116.7 116.7

118118.4

118.5

117.9

118.6

119.4

119.2

119.5

119.3

119.5 120

118.8

117.8

118.3

117.8 118118.3

119.2119.3

119.9

119.4

119.5

119.5119.5

117.8

116.8

116.6

116 116.1

116.9 116.7

117.1 116.7

116.4

117.1

117.5117.9

118.4

119.3

120.7121 121.2

120.6

121

122.5 122.5

120.8

110

115

120

125

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 117.2 0.0 118.6 109.4

25-34 118.0 ↓ 3.0 121.0 110.0

35-44 119.7 ↓ 0.8 120.5 107.7

45-54 119.8 ↓ 1.4 121.9 109.1

55-64 122.2 ↓ 3.5 125.8 112.9

65+ 125.8 ↓ 1.3 127.1 116.9

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 115.3 ↓ 1.2 116.6 106.1

$50K-$100K 127.1 ↓ 1.7 128.9 117.8

$100K+ 131.6 ↓ 2.4 136.2 123.2

$100K-$150K 130.8 ↓ 3.5 134.3 121.7

$150-$200K 133.1 ↓ 1.8 141.1 123.2

$200-$250K 132.3 ↑ 1.7 137.8 120.1

$250K+ 134.1 ↑ 0.8 139.8 121.7


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Sampling Method

Morning Consult Economic Intelligence interviews about 7,500 adults per day in the US. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience.

Survey Questions

Survey respondents answer the same five questions:

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

Data Processing

The data are then weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region according to US Census data. Weekly results aggregate daily surveys conducted from Monday through Sunday. Monthly results aggregate daily surveys conducted during the calendar month.

Relative Score and Index Calculations

The relative scores for each of the five questions reflect the percent of favorable replies minus the percent of unfavorable replies plus 100. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is a simple average of all five relative scores. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 2, 3 and 4. Finally, the Index of Current Conditions (ICC) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 1 and 5.

Intraweek Volatility and 30-Day Trend

Intraweek Volatility compares the day-to-day volatility within a given week to average intraweek volatility. “Stable” weeks are those with average or below average volatility. “Elevated” weeks are those with above average volatility. The 30-Day Trend captures the slope of the line of best fit for the past 30 days of smoothed daily data. All positive slopes are considered increasing trends, and all negative slopes are decreasing trends.

METHODOLOGY

66


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