economic intelligence - morning consult · 2020. 5. 1. · economic intelligence: u.s. consumer...

E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE:U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

WEEK OF 02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020


Morning Consult uses the same 5 questions that the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers uses to measure consumer sentiment.1

QUESTION #1 : PERSONAL FINANCES – CURRENT CONDITION

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days.

Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

QUESTION #2: PERSONAL FINANCES – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

QUESTION #3: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

QUESTION #4: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

QUESTION #5: CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS

About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television,

and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

MONTH L Y : U N I V E R S I T Y O F M I C H I G A N

The Survey of Consumers is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 600 cellular phone interviews with adults living in households in the coterminous United States. Preliminary results are released mid-month based on the first two weeks of interviews, which reflects about two thirds of the full monthly sample.

DA I L Y : M O R N I N G C O N S U L T

The Economic Intelligence Survey is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 7,500 daily and 210,000 monthly online interviews with adults living in households across the entire United States. Final results are released daily, which allows for unprecedented analysis of breaking news across geographic regions, economic variables, and demographic characteristics.

M E T H O D O L O G Y

Overall, the methodology used to measure trends in the economic expectations of consumers is in a state of flux. Rapid changes in technology and social media are unlikely to slow anytime soon. It is hard to imagine that in 10 or 20 years the measurement methodology will not have been transformed in some as yet undetermined ways. The fast pace of technological and social change must be confronted with a robust research methodology that preserves a consistent series of high quality measurements on economic expectations.

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PROFESSOR RICHARD CURTIN 7TH JOINT EC / OECD WORKSHOP: NOVEMBER 30, 2015

WHY WE CREATED MORNING CONSULT ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE

Frequency + Scale = Key Improvements

Same Standard Questions Used to Calculate U.S. Consumer Confidence Indices

1. See University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, "Index Calculations.". Available at https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770 2


T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

Key TakeawaysWeekly Dashboard

2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

6-Week Snapshot: U.S. Daily Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Indices Over Time

C O N S U M E R I N D I C E S

Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC)

I N D I V I D U A L Q U E S T I O N S

Personal Finances: Current ConditionsPersonal Finances: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 5 Year ExpectationsCurrent Buying Conditions

M E T H O D O L O G Y

57

8

9

10

112437

5053565962

65


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



KEY TAKEAWAYS(Week of 02/03/2020 - 02/09/2020)

U.S. consumer confidence slightly declined last week as coronavirus fears escalated and concerns about the outbreak began to drive down stock prices. Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) fell 0.6 points and currently stands at 114.8, which is close to where it started at the beginning of the year.

• This week’s drop is less than half the magnitude of the week-over-week decline that followed the height of the U.S.-Iran conflict in early January, and confidence remains elevated compared to August-September 2019. (Slide 6)

• Consumers are most concerned about future economic performance, particularly U.S. businesses. Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE), which measures performance of future business and personal financial expectations, fell 0.8 points to 115.3. The dip was particularly pronounced among those who work in the financial and transportation sectors, dropping 4.7 and 4.9 points, respectively. (Slide 19)

• Consumers’ expectations of business conditions 12 months and five years into the future suffered the most this past week, both of which fell 1.2 points. Global businesses are struggling to address disruptions to their supply chains, and Wall Street investors are increasingly nervous that such disturbances will harm corporate profits.

• As previously reported, U.S. consumers primarily view the coronavirus as a risk to global economic growth, than a risk to U.S. economic growth and finally as a risk to economic growth in their local economies. This week’s data is consistent with those findings. The coronavirus has yet to affect U.S. job or wage growth and consumers’ views of their personal financial conditions remained essentially unchanged.

• The daily ICS fell 2.1 points from Tuesday to Thursday before stabilizing and then rebounding over the weekend. This rebound alleviates concerns of a freefall in consumer confidence in the near term, but falling stock prices are likely to continue to exert downward pressure on consumer confidence in the coming weeks. In the medium term, the coronavirus outbreak may end up harming consumers via weaker business confidence and slower business investment.

5


6

WEEKLY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

7/7/19

7/14/1

9

7/21/1

9

7/28/

19

8/4/1

9

8/11/

19

8/18

/19

8/25

/199/

1/19

9/8/

19

9/15

/19

9/22

/19

9/29

/19

10/6/

19

10/13

/19

10/20

/19

10/27

/19

11/3/1

9

11/10

/19

11/17/

19

11/24

/19

12/1/

19

12/8

/19

12/15

/19

12/2

2/19

12/2

9/19

1/5/2

0

1/12/

20

1/19/

20

1/26/

20

2/2/

20

2/9/

20

2/16

/20

2/23

/20

Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations


WEEKLY DASHBOARD(Week of 02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)

Value Weekly Change* Intraweek Volatility 30-Day Trend

ICS (Consumer Sentiment) 114.8 ↓ 0.6 Stable Increasing

ICE (Future Expectations) 115.3 ↓ 0.8 Stable Increasing

ICC (Current Conditions) 114.0 ↓ 0.3 Elevated Increasing

Personal Finances: Current Conditions 105.5 ↓ 0.4 Stable Increasing

Personal Finances: 12 Month Expectations 129.8 ↓ 0.1 Stable Decreasing

Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations 114.9 ↓ 1.2 Stable Increasing

Business Conditions: 5 Year Expectations 101.2 ↓ 1.2 Stable Increasing

Current Buying Conditions 122.5 ↓ 0.3 Elevated Increasing

*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 7


10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

8/1/19: Trump confirms increase in tariffs on Chinese goods

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods3/1/18: U.S.

trade war begins

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20

Index of Consumer Sentiment (Jan 1, 2018 – Feb 23, 2020)

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods

10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

3/1/19: U.S. trade war begins

8/14/19: 10-2 yield curve inverts

11/15/19: All yield curves uninvert

10/11/19: US announces “phase one” trade deal with China

8/1/19: Trump confirms tariff increase on Chinese goods

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Inde

x (O

nlin

e)

Morning Consult Daily Morning Consult Monthly

7,500/day 210,000/month

University of Michigan Monthly

600/month

Michigan Index (P

hone)

Note: There are three primary reasons why Morning Consult and the University of Michigan appear on different axes: (1) Michigan deflates its values so that 1966 serves as its base year, which is not appropriate for Morning Consult’s data; (2) a higher percentage of survey respondents answer “Don’t Know” or “No Opinion” in Morning Consult’s Economic Intelligence Survey, thus providing a richer data set in terms of measuring respondents’ uncertainty; and (3) Morning Consult’s dramatically larger sample sizes reduce a mean-adjusted measure of variance.

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

01/02/20:US kills Iranian general

8


6-Week Snapshot Analysis: Daily U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

9

113.3

113.9

113

112.8113.4

114

113.9

114.7

115.2

113.9

115114.5115.1

115.9

114.7

114.9

113.4

112.4

112.1 111.6

112.7

113.8113.5 113.3

114.4113.4

114.6

113.9

112.2

114.1

114.8

115.1115.3

114.1

114.9

113.3

114.2

115.1

114.9

112.9

114.1

115.1

113.2113.8 114.2

114.6 114.5

115.9

114.1

117.1

115.4

116.8

114.9

114.6

116.4

115.9

115 115

116 115.9

114.7

113.8 114.1

114.5

115.2115.2

107

111

114

118

94

96

100

102

12/19

/19

12/2

2/19

12/2

5/19

12/2

8/19

12/3

1/19

01/0

3/20

01/0

6/20

01/0

9/20

01/12

/20

01/15

/20

01/18

/20

01/2

1/20

01/2

4/20

01/2

7/20

01/3

0/20

02/0

2/20

02/0

5/20

02/0

8/20

02/11

/20

02/14

/20

02/17

/20

02/2

0/20

02/2

3/20

Morning Consult Daily (7,500/day)

University of Michigan Monthly (600/month)

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Inde

x (O

nlin

e)M

ichigan Index (Phone)

01/02/20: U.S. fatally attacks Iranian commander Soleimani

01/08/20: President Trump announces U.S. “ready to embrace peace”

01/15/20: U.S. and China sign phase one trade deal

01/30/20: WHO declares coronavirus epidemic global emergency

02/07/20: 225k jobs in Jan beats expectations


CONSUMER INDICES(7-Day Moving Average Over Past 365 Days)

10

100

105

110

115

120

Mar-2

019

Apr-2

019

May-2

019

Jun-

2019

Jul-2

019

Aug-

2019

Sep-

2019

Oct-2

019

Nov-2

019

Dec-2

019

Jan-

2020

Feb-

2020

Mar-2

020

ICC (Current Conditions) ICE (Future Expectations) ICS (Consumer Sentiment)


INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)



INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT ( ICS ) OVER T IME(Weekly)

W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W

114.8 115.5 107.0(02/03/2020) (08/26/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)

12

109.7

109.7

110.5

109.5110.3

111

110.7 110.7

111

111.7112.6

111.1

110.3

110 110 109.9

110.4

111.4

111

112.3

111.7111.8 111.8

111.7

109.6

107.7

107.3 107

107.7108.3

107.7

108.5108.4

108.2

108.4109.1109.3110.2

110.8

111.3111.8 112

112.1

112.7114

114.8

112.8

113.9

114.6

114

115.5115.4

114.8

108

112

116

03/0

1/19

04/0

1/19

05/0

1/19

06/0

1/19

07/0

1/19

08/0

1/19

09/0

1/19

10/0

1/19

11/01

/19

12/0

1/19

01/0

1/20

02/0

1/20


KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)



Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low

Demo: Age

18-24 115.9 ↑ 0.4 117.4 109.5

25-34 118.7 ↓ 0.6 119.7 111.0

35-44 117.6 ↓ 0.1 117.7 108.6

45-54 114.1 ↓ 0.3 114.7 105.7

55-64 112.7 ↓ 1.0 113.7 103.9

65+ 110.8 ↓ 1.8 112.5 102.2

Demo: Gender

Male 120.4 ↓ 0.5 121.0 111.3

Female 109.5 ↓ 0.7 110.5 102.5






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 108.3 ↓ 0.7 109.3 102.6

$50K-$100K 121.7 ↓ 0.1 121.7 111.7

$100K+ 128.2 ↓ 1.2 129.5 116.0

$100K-$150K 127.5 ↓ 1.3 128.7 115.6

$150-$200K 130.1 ↓ 1.2 131.3 114.3

$200-$250K 124.8 ↓ 3.3 131.1 110.6

$250K+ 133.7 ↑ 1.4 134.5 115.7






Demo: Education

Less Than College 114.3 ↓ 0.8 115.2 107.7

Bachelor's Degree 116.9 ↓ 0.2 117.3 106.9

Post-Grad 114.0 ↓ 0.2 114.6 102.5

Demo: Race/Ethnicity

African American 111.3 ↓ 1.3 113.4 104.2

Hispanic 115.4 0.0 116.3 108.1

Other 109.6 ↓ 1.0 110.7 102.4

White 115.5 ↓ 0.6 116.2 107.4






Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)

Educational Services 116.4 ↑ 1.1 117.2 105.3

Financial Activities 127.4 ↓ 4.3 131.7 112.9

Health Care 118.5 ↑ 0.8 120.0 108.9

Information 123.3 ↓ 1.9 125.2 111.2

Leisure and Hospitality 115.3 ↑ 1.8 119.9 98.3

Professional and Business Services 122.0 ↓ 1.3 123.3 107.9

Real Estate and Property 127.8 ↑ 2.7 134.1 114.2

Retail Trade 120.4 ↓ 0.2 120.6 109.0

Transportation 124.4 ↓ 4.0 128.4 113.3






Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)

Agriculture 124.4 ↑ 3.9 130.8 109.6

Construction 131.4 ↑ 2.0 131.4 121.3

Manufacturing 127.2 ↓ 1.9 129.1 117.0

Demo: Employment Industry (Other)

Defense 127.5 ↑ 1.5 137.7 108.1

Other 117.2 ↑ 0.5 117.2 108.7

Public Administration 115.2 ↓ 4.7 132.6 97.1






Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder

Total 126.8 ↑ 0.6 126.8 114.9

Businesses with 1-5 Employees 121.6 ↑ 1.8 121.6 110.7


Businesses with 21-100 Employees 136.7 ↓ 1.8 139.0 113.9

Businesses with More than 101 Employees 149.5 ↓ 6.4 157.5 122.5

Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development

Works in Sales or Business Development 125.8 ↑ 2.0 125.8 114.2






Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics

Total 123.0 ↑ 0.1 123.5 112.7





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 123.4 ↓ 2.3 125.7 110.3

Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 120.7 ↑ 0.5 126.0 108.7






Demo: Housing Assets

Homeowners 118.7 ↓ 0.8 119.4 109.5

Renters 110.3 ↓ 0.7 111.1 104.0

Other 106.2 ↑ 0.9 108.0 101.8

Demo: Equity Market Investments

$50K+ 124.0 ↓ 0.3 124.3 112.5

Less than $50K 119.0 ↓ 1.6 120.6 109.9

None 109.3 ↓ 0.4 110.6 103.3

Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments

Total 125.4 ↓ 0.1 125.5 113.2






Demo: Daily Media Consumers

The New York Times 115.4 ↑ 4.4 120.3 93.0

The Wall Street Journal 127.2 ↓ 8.4 135.5 108.6

Fox News Channel 143.3 ↓ 0.3 145.0 133.3

CNN 102.8 ↓ 0.4 105.1 90.9

MSNBC 97.7 ↓ 0.7 102.5 85.2

Twitter 119.8 ↑ 0.8 120.4 109.7

Facebook 116.7 ↓ 0.5 117.1 108.5






Demo: Political Ideology

Conservative 140.1 ↓ 0.2 140.3 131.1

Liberal 96.6 ↓ 0.3 98.0 87.7

Moderate 109.1 ↓ 0.6 109.7 100.9

Demo: Trump Approval

Approve 143.4 ↑ 0.2 143.4 135.6

Disapprove 92.9 ↓ 0.3 94.4 85.5

Demo: 2016 Presidential Election

Republican Donald Trump 145.7 ↓ 0.4 146.1 136.7

Democrat Hillary Clinton 91.5 ↓ 0.9 92.8 82.1

Someone Else 103.0 ↑ 0.2 103.0 93.7


FED D ISTR ICTS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)

ICS


Federal Reserve Districts

Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value108.6 to 111.8111.8 to 112.8112.8 to 118.2118.2 to 121.6

Districts ValueWeekly

Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 108.6 ↑ 2.7 108.6 97.6

New York (2) 112.4 ↓ 1.1 113.5 103.9

Philadelphia (3) 112.8 ↑ 0.5 115.2 103.5

Cleveland (4) 112.8 ↓ 2.6 115.4 104.7

Richmond (5) 118.6 ↑ 0.8 118.7 109.7

Atlanta (6) 121.6 ↓ 0.2 122.1 113.2

Chicago (7) 111.5 ↓ 1.1 113.5 103.8

St. Louis (8) 117.7 ↑ 1.6 117.8 107.1

Minneapolis (9) 112.2 ↓ 1.7 115.3 102.7

Kansas City (10) 114.3 ↑ 0.6 114.3 105.9

Dallas (11) 119.0 ↓ 0.3 120.1 111.3

San Francisco (12) 111.0 ↓ 2.4 113.4 103.3


INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)



INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS ( ICE ) OVER T IME(Weekly)


115.3 116.3 106.2(02/03/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)

25

109.4

109.8

110.5

109.4

110.2110.9

110.2 110.4

110.9

112113.3

111.3

110.3

109.9

110.1

109.7

110.4

111.4111

112.8

112 112 112

111.6

109.6

107

106.2 106.3107.1

107.8

107.1

108.1

108.1

108.2 108.1

109.4 109.6

111

111.2111.7

112

112.6113

113.5

114.2

115.3

113.2

114.5

115.4

114.6

116.3

116.1

115.3

104

108

112

116

03/0

1/19

04/0

1/19

05/0

1/19

06/0

1/19

07/0

1/19

08/0

1/19

09/0

1/19

10/0

1/19

11/01

/19

12/0

1/19

01/0

1/20

02/0

1/20






Demo: Age

18-24 117.8 ↑ 0.7 119.3 110.3

25-34 122.0 ↓ 0.9 123.6 112.7

35-44 119.6 0.0 120.7 109.4

45-54 115.6 ↓ 0.5 116.1 106.1

55-64 111.7 ↓ 1.2 112.9 101.6

65+ 107.5 ↓ 2.4 109.9 97.3

Demo: Gender

Male 121.0 ↓ 1.0 122.0 110.3

Female 110.0 ↓ 0.7 111.4 101.7






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 110.3 ↓ 0.9 111.6 103.5

$50K-$100K 121.0 ↓ 0.2 121.2 109.2

$100K+ 124.9 ↓ 1.6 126.5 110.4

$100K-$150K 124.6 ↓ 1.6 126.2 110.3

$150-$200K 126.8 ↓ 1.0 128.9 108.1

$200-$250K 118.6 ↓ 4.9 125.5 103.4

$250K+ 129.5 ↑ 0.9 130.2 108.9






Demo: Education



Post-Grad 110.9 ↓ 0.1 112.1 97.8



Hispanic 116.7 ↑ 0.2 118.5 108.5

Other 109.5 ↓ 2.0 111.5 100.2

White 115.7 ↓ 1.0 116.7 106.0







Educational Services 115.6 ↑ 2.7 116.6 102.8


Health Care 117.7 ↑ 0.2 120.7 107.3

Information 122.9 ↓ 0.8 125.0 108.6


Professional and Business Services 122.1 0.0 122.1 104.3


Retail Trade 122.6 ↑ 0.6 122.6 108.2

Transportation 126.4 ↓ 4.9 131.3 113.6







Agriculture 127.5 ↑ 2.4 135.8 108.7

Construction 133.9 ↑ 1.1 134.9 121.7

Manufacturing 126.4 ↓ 3.6 130.0 115.3


Defense 128.7 ↑ 4.1 135.4 106.2

Other 117.5 ↑ 0.3 117.7 107.3








Total 127.9 ↑ 0.5 127.9 114.3






Works in Sales or Business Development 128.1 ↑ 3.9 128.1 114.0







Total 123.2 ↓ 0.5 124.1 112.1





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 122.2 ↓ 4.0 126.1 108.5








Homeowners 117.8 ↓ 1.0 118.8 107.2

Renters 112.4 ↓ 0.9 113.5 104.5

Other 110.4 ↑ 1.0 112.1 104.4


$50K+ 120.3 ↓ 0.6 121.0 107.1

Less than $50K 119.4 ↓ 2.1 121.6 109.0

None 111.9 ↓ 0.5 113.3 104.5


Total 121.4 ↓ 0.4 121.9 107.5









Fox News Channel 144.9 ↓ 0.1 146.9 133.8

CNN 100.4 ↑ 0.4 102.2 84.8

MSNBC 94.2 ↓ 0.2 98.6 79.0

Twitter 120.4 ↑ 1.2 120.7 107.7

Facebook 117.7 ↓ 0.7 118.5 108.2







Conservative 142.7 ↓ 0.3 143.2 132.7

Liberal 94.2 ↓ 0.4 95.8 83.1

Moderate 109.1 ↓ 0.8 109.9 99.4


Approve 147.3 ↓ 0.2 147.7 139.5

Disapprove 90.4 ↓ 0.3 92.2 80.9


Republican Donald Trump 148.6 ↓ 0.7 149.2 138.9


Someone Else 100.8 ↓ 0.9 101.7 90.3


FED D ISTR ICTS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)

ICE



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value107.4 to 111.8111.8 to 113.2113.2 to 119.4119.4 to 123.2


Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 107.4 ↑ 2.1 107.4 95.5

New York (2) 112.1 ↓ 0.9 113.2 102.3

Philadelphia (3) 113.8 ↑ 1.4 115.7 101.5

Cleveland (4) 112.6 ↓ 3.1 115.7 103.3

Richmond (5) 119.4 ↑ 1.0 119.9 109.3

Atlanta (6) 123.2 ↓ 0.2 123.9 113.1

Chicago (7) 111.0 ↓ 1.4 113.9 102.0

St. Louis (8) 119.5 ↑ 1.9 119.5 106.4

Minneapolis (9) 112.0 ↓ 2.0 116.0 99.8

Kansas City (10) 115.3 ↑ 0.5 115.3 105.5

Dallas (11) 121.5 ↓ 0.6 122.3 111.9

San Francisco (12) 110.9 ↓ 3.2 114.0 101.7


INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)



INDEX OF CURRENT CONDIT IONS ( ICC) OVER T IME(Weekly)


114.0 114.3 108.0(02/10/2020) (08/26/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)

38

110.1

109.7

110.4

109.8

110.3

111.1

111.4

111.1 111.1111.2

111.6

110.8

110.2

110.1 109.8

110.2

110.4

111.2 111

111.6

111.2111.4

111.6 111.9

109.7

108.8

109

108

108.7

109.1

108.6

109.2

108.8

108.2

108.9

108.7 108.8

109.1

110.3

110.6

111.6111.2

110.8

111.4

113.7

114

112.2

113.1

113.3113.2

114.2

114.3

114

108

111

114

117

03/0

1/19

04/0

1/19

05/0

1/19

06/0

1/19

07/0

1/19

08/0

1/19

09/0

1/19

10/0

1/19

11/01

/19

12/0

1/19

01/0

1/20

02/0

1/20






Demo: Age

18-24 113.2 ↑ 0.1 114.6 107.4

25-34 113.9 ↓ 0.1 115.2 107.9

35-44 114.7 ↓ 0.1 114.8 107.0

45-54 111.8 0.0 113.1 105.1

55-64 114.1 ↓ 0.8 114.9 106.9

65+ 115.7 ↓ 0.8 116.6 109.4

Demo: Gender

Male 119.6 ↑ 0.1 119.6 112.5

Female 108.8 ↓ 0.7 109.6 103.8






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 105.3 ↓ 0.4 105.9 100.9

$50K-$100K 122.7 ↑ 0.2 122.7 115.4

$100K+ 133.3 ↓ 0.7 134.0 124.1

$100K-$150K 131.8 ↓ 0.7 132.5 123.2

$150-$200K 135.1 ↓ 1.4 136.5 123.8

$200-$250K 134.2 ↓ 0.9 139.4 121.5

$250K+ 140.0 ↑ 2.1 140.8 124.6






Demo: Education



Post-Grad 118.6 ↓ 0.3 119.0 109.7



Hispanic 113.4 ↓ 0.3 114.1 106.9

Other 109.8 ↑ 0.4 111.1 105.1

White 115.3 ↓ 0.1 115.4 108.9







Educational Services 117.6 ↓ 1.4 119.1 108.3


Health Care 119.8 ↑ 1.6 120.6 110.3

Information 123.9 ↓ 3.6 127.5 114.4


Professional and Business Services 121.8 ↓ 3.3 125.1 112.7


Retail Trade 117.2 ↓ 1.3 118.5 109.5

Transportation 121.5 ↓ 2.6 124.1 110.3







Agriculture 119.8 ↑ 6.0 127.9 104.8

Construction 127.7 ↑ 3.3 127.7 119.2

Manufacturing 128.5 ↑ 0.6 128.5 118.1


Defense 125.6 ↓ 2.3 143.0 102.9

Other 116.9 ↑ 0.7 116.9 108.6








Total 125.1 ↑ 0.9 125.1 114.1






Works in Sales or Business Development 122.4 ↓ 0.8 123.9 113.8







Total 122.6 ↑ 1.1 122.6 113.7





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 125.3 ↑ 0.1 125.4 113.1








Homeowners 120.0 ↓ 0.4 120.4 112.9

Renters 107.3 ↓ 0.4 107.7 102.8

Other 99.9 ↑ 0.7 101.9 95.1


$50K+ 129.5 ↑ 0.1 129.5 120.2

Less than $50K 118.3 ↓ 0.8 119.1 111.2

None 105.5 ↓ 0.3 106.4 101.3


Total 131.2 ↑ 0.2 131.2 121.3









Fox News Channel 140.8 ↓ 0.6 142.6 130.0

CNN 106.4 ↓ 1.6 110.2 98.4

MSNBC 103.0 ↓ 1.3 109.1 92.3

Twitter 118.8 ↑ 0.1 120.0 111.1

Facebook 115.1 ↓ 0.2 115.3 108.5







Conservative 136.2 ↓ 0.1 136.2 127.7

Liberal 100.1 ↓ 0.3 101.3 94.3

Moderate 108.9 ↓ 0.4 109.7 103.1


Approve 137.5 ↑ 0.6 137.5 129.6

Disapprove 96.7 ↓ 0.2 98.2 91.8


Republican Donald Trump 141.5 0.0 141.5 132.2


Someone Else 106.2 ↑ 1.8 106.2 98.6


FED D ISTR ICTS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)

ICC



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value110.4 to 111.8111.8 to 112.8112.8 to 115.1115.1 to 119.4


Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 110.4 ↑ 3.5 110.4 100.9

New York (2) 112.8 ↓ 1.4 114.2 106.0

Philadelphia (3) 111.3 ↓ 0.8 114.4 104.9

Cleveland (4) 113.2 ↓ 1.7 115.0 106.2

Richmond (5) 117.5 ↑ 0.4 117.5 110.1

Atlanta (6) 119.4 ↓ 0.2 119.6 112.2

Chicago (7) 112.2 ↓ 0.5 113.1 106.4

St. Louis (8) 115.0 ↑ 1.0 116.5 105.9

Minneapolis (9) 112.6 ↓ 1.4 114.9 104.8

Kansas City (10) 112.6 ↑ 0.7 112.7 104.7

Dallas (11) 115.2 ↑ 0.1 117.8 110.3

San Francisco (12) 111.1 ↓ 1.2 112.3 104.9


PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



PERSONAL F INANCES: CURRENT CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


105.5 105.9 99.7(02/10/2020) (10/28/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)

51

103.1

101.1

102.3

101.6102

102.7

103.7

102.7

103103

103.3

102.7

102.6

101.9 101.8

102.5

102.6

103.3

102.6

103.4

103103.2

103.7104.2

101.6

100.9

101.4

100

101.2

101.3

100.5

101.3100.8

100 100.6

99.8 99.7

99.8

101.3 100.6

102.1

101.2

101

101.8

104.9

105.4

103.7

104.8 104.6

104.5

105.7 105.9

105.5

97.5

100.0

102.5

105.0

107.5

03/0

1/19

04/0

1/19

05/0

1/19

06/0

1/19

07/0

1/19

08/0

1/19

09/0

1/19

10/0

1/19

11/01

/19

12/0

1/19

01/0

1/20

02/0

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PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 109.1 ↑ 0.3 111.7 102.5

25-34 108.3 ↑ 0.9 109.5 101.6

35-44 107.3 ↓ 0.3 107.7 98.6

45-54 101.8 ↓ 1.2 104.3 95.7

55-64 103.2 ↓ 0.9 104.1 95.4

65+ 104.7 ↓ 0.5 105.8 96.6

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 94.3 ↓ 0.4 95.0 89.9

$50K-$100K 116.6 ↑ 0.3 116.6 109.2

$100K+ 130.9 ↓ 0.9 131.9 121.6

$100K-$150K 128.2 ↓ 1.3 129.6 119.2

$150-$200K 134.3 ↓ 0.4 134.7 122.3

$200-$250K 136.7 ↑ 1.8 139.8 120.1

$250K+ 138.6 ↓ 0.4 139.6 125.2


PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



PERSONAL F INANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


129.8 130.8 125.6(12/30/2019) (09/02/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)

54

127.2

127.8

128 127.7

128.9

129.3

129.2

128.3

129.1

130.2130.5

128.8

128.7

127.9

128.6

127.9

126.9

128.4

128.2

129.9

128.8 128.8

128.5128.6

127.8

126.8

126.1

125.8 125.6

125.8

125.6

126.6

126.2

126.7

126.3

127.8127.4

128.4128.7

129

127.9

128.8

129.5129.5

129.4

130.8

129.6130.2

130.7130.5

130.4

129.9129.8

125.0

127.5

130.0

132.5

03/0

1/19

04/0

1/19

05/0

1/19

06/0

1/19

07/0

1/19

08/0

1/19

09/0

1/19

10/0

1/19

11/01

/19

12/0

1/19

01/0

1/20

02/0

1/20



PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 141.5 ↑ 1.0 144.6 137.9

25-34 145.6 0.0 149.3 143.3

35-44 140.1 ↑ 1.4 141.0 134.1

45-54 129.8 ↓ 1.1 131.6 124.0

55-64 121.0 ↑ 0.3 121.9 113.2

65+ 108.5 ↓ 1.8 110.5 102.3

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 126.4 ↑ 0.2 127.9 122.5

$50K-$100K 133.6 ↑ 0.1 134.7 127.8

$100K+ 136.8 ↓ 1.7 138.5 129.9

$100K-$150K 136.2 ↓ 2.0 138.2 130.0

$150-$200K 138.2 ↓ 0.1 142.0 128.9

$200-$250K 135.1 ↓ 2.2 142.0 128.7

$250K+ 141.1 ↓ 2.1 143.1 126.7


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


114.9 116.2 101.9(02/03/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)

57

106.8

107.1

108.4

107

108

109

107.8

108.7109.2

110.2

112.5

109.6

107.4

107.5

107.1 107

109.1

109.9109.4

110.5110.7

110.9 111.3

109.8

106.8

103.1

101.9102.4

103.7

104.8 104.1

105.2105.2

104.8

105.4

106.5107.5

108.9 109.3

110.2110.9 111.3

112113.1

114114.5

111.3

113.8

114.7

113.5

116.2116.1

114.9

100

105

110

115

03/0

1/19

04/0

1/19

05/0

1/19

06/0

1/19

07/0

1/19

08/0

1/19

09/0

1/19

10/0

1/19

11/01

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12/0

1/19

01/0

1/20

02/0

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BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 114.4 ↑ 1.9 114.6 101.6

25-34 116.2 ↓ 1.5 117.7 103.5

35-44 115.6 ↓ 0.5 116.9 101.7

45-54 114.6 ↓ 0.8 115.4 101.8

55-64 113.8 ↓ 2.2 116.1 100.6

65+ 114.7 ↓ 2.7 117.4 99.9

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 109.7 ↓ 1.3 111.0 99.7

$50K-$100K 120.6 ↓ 0.8 121.5 105.2

$100K+ 125.4 ↓ 1.1 127.2 104.3

$100K-$150K 124.9 ↓ 1.3 126.6 104.4

$150-$200K 127.7 ↓ 1.0 129.7 101.2

$200-$250K 118.8 ↓ 3.5 126.6 94.7

$250K+ 129.8 ↑ 2.2 131.0 102.3


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


101.2 102.4 90.6(02/03/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)

60

94.2

94.395.1

93.4

93.894.4

93.7 94.194.5

95.8

96.9

95.6

94.8

94.4

94.5

94.3

95.2

96

95.3

97.9

96.7

96.4 96.396.3

94.1

91

90.690.8

91.9

92.7

91.792.4

92.9

93.1

92.6

93.893.9

95.695.6

95.9

97.2

97.7

97.4

97.9

99.2

100.6

98.6

99.6

100.8

99.8

102.4102.4

101.2

90

95

100

105

03/0

1/19

04/0

1/19

05/0

1/19

06/0

1/19

07/0

1/19

08/0

1/19

09/0

1/19

10/0

1/19

11/01

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12/0

1/19

01/0

1/20

02/0

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BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 97.4 ↓ 0.8 99.7 87.2

25-34 104.1 ↓ 1.2 105.3 89.7

35-44 103.0 ↓ 1.0 104.5 91.5

45-54 102.3 ↑ 0.5 103.4 90.5

55-64 100.2 ↓ 1.7 101.9 89.4

65+ 99.2 ↓ 2.7 101.9 89.9

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 94.8 ↓ 1.6 96.9 86.5

$50K-$100K 108.7 ↑ 0.1 108.7 94.7

$100K+ 112.4 ↓ 2.1 114.5 96.2

$100K-$150K 112.5 ↓ 1.7 114.3 96.4

$150-$200K 114.4 ↓ 2.0 117.6 92.1

$200-$250K 101.9 ↓ 9.0 114.1 84.6

$250K+ 117.5 ↑ 2.6 117.5 95.5


CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



CURRENT BUYING CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


122.5 122.8 116.0(02/10/2020) (08/26/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)

63

117.1

118.4

118.5

117.9

118.6

119.4

119.2

119.5

119.3

119.5120

118.8

117.8

118.3

117.8 118

118.3

119.2119.3

119.9

119.4

119.5

119.5119.5

117.8

116.8

116.6

116 116.1

116.9

116.7

117.1116.7

116.4

117.1

117.5 117.9

118.4

119.3

120.7

121121.2

120.6

121

122.5 122.5

120.8

121.4

122121.9

122.7 122.8

122.5

114

117

120

123

03/0

1/19

04/0

1/19

05/0

1/19

06/0

1/19

07/0

1/19

08/0

1/19

09/0

1/19

10/0

1/19

11/01

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12/0

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01/0

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02/0

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CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 117.3 ↓ 0.2 118.9 112.3

25-34 119.5 ↓ 1.1 121.0 113.2

35-44 122.0 ↑ 0.1 122.4 113.5

45-54 121.7 ↑ 1.2 122.2 114.0

55-64 125.1 ↓ 0.6 125.8 116.4

65+ 126.8 ↓ 1.0 127.9 120.6

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 116.3 ↓ 0.4 116.8 110.7

$50K-$100K 128.8 ↑ 0.1 128.9 120.9

$100K+ 135.6 ↓ 0.4 136.2 125.4

$100K-$150K 135.3 0.0 135.9 125.3

$150-$200K 135.9 ↓ 2.4 141.1 123.9

$200-$250K 131.7 ↓ 3.6 139.7 120.1

$250K+ 141.3 ↑ 4.5 142.2 121.7


Sampling Method

Morning Consult Economic Intelligence interviews about 7,500 adults per day in the US. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience.

Survey Questions

Survey respondents answer the same five questions:

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

Data Processing

The data are then weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region according to US Census data. Weekly results aggregate daily surveys conducted from Monday through Sunday. Monthly results aggregate daily surveys conducted during the calendar month.

Relative Score and Index Calculations

The relative scores for each of the five questions reflect the percent of favorable replies minus the percent of unfavorable replies plus 100. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is a simple average of all five relative scores. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 2, 3 and 4. Finally, the Index of Current Conditions (ICC) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 1 and 5.

Intraweek Volatility and 30-Day Trend

Intraweek Volatility compares the day-to-day volatility within a given week to average intraweek volatility. “Stable” weeks are those with average or below average volatility. “Elevated” weeks are those with above average volatility. The 30-Day Trend captures the slope of the line of best fit for the past 30 days of smoothed daily data. All positive slopes are considered increasing trends, and all negative slopes are decreasing trends.

METHODOLOGY

66


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economic intelligence - morning consult · 2020. 5. 1. · economic intelligence: u.s. consumer...

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