economic intelligence - morning consult€¦ · 29/01/2020 · economic intelligence: u.s....

E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE:U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

WEEK OF 01/20/2020 - 01/26/2020


Morning Consult uses the same 5 questions that the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers uses to measure consumer sentiment.1

QUESTION #1 : PERSONAL FINANCES – CURRENT CONDITION

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days.

Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

QUESTION #2: PERSONAL FINANCES – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

QUESTION #3: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

QUESTION #4: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

QUESTION #5: CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS

About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television,

and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

MONTH L Y : U N I V E R S I T Y O F M I C H I G A N

The Survey of Consumers is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 600 cellular phone interviews with adults living in households in the coterminous United States. Preliminary results are released mid-month based on the first two weeks of interviews, which reflects about two thirds of the full monthly sample.

DA I L Y : M O R N I N G C O N S U L T

The Economic Intelligence Survey is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 7,500 daily and 210,000 monthly online interviews with adults living in households across the entire United States. Final results are released daily, which allows for unprecedented analysis of breaking news across geographic regions, economic variables, and demographic characteristics.

M E T H O D O L O G Y

Overall, the methodology used to measure trends in the economic expectations of consumers is in a state of flux. Rapid changes in technology and social media are unlikely to slow anytime soon. It is hard to imagine that in 10 or 20 years the measurement methodology will not have been transformed in some as yet undetermined ways. The fast pace of technological and social change must be confronted with a robust research methodology that preserves a consistent series of high quality measurements on economic expectations.

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PROFESSOR RICHARD CURTIN 7TH JOINT EC / OECD WORKSHOP: NOVEMBER 30, 2015

WHY WE CREATED MORNING CONSULT ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE

Frequency + Scale = Key Improvements

Same Standard Questions Used to Calculate U.S. Consumer Confidence Indices

1. See University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, "Index Calculations.". Available at https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770 2


T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

Key TakeawaysWeekly Dashboard

2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

6-Week Snapshot: U.S. Daily Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Indices Over Time

C O N S U M E R I N D I C E S

Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC)

I N D I V I D U A L Q U E S T I O N S

Personal Finances: Current ConditionsPersonal Finances: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 5 Year ExpectationsCurrent Buying Conditions

M E T H O D O L O G Y

67

8

9

10

122538

5154576063

67

2-Year Trend Analysis: Fed Districts 11


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



KEY TAKEAWAYS(Week of 01/20/2020 - 01/26/2020)

• U.S. Consumer Confidence Continues to Rise – Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) increased last week to 114.5, with consumers’ expectations of business conditions setting new 52-week highs. While the year began with negative consumer reactions to tensions with Iran, confidence for January is currently set to increase to 113.9. (Slides 7, 8, 58 and 61)

• No Coronavirus Impact on Confidence Yet – While markets closed lower on Monday amid fears of the coronavirus, those fears have yet to materially affect the economic outlook of U.S. consumers. This past week’s daily data exhibits volatility in line with historical averages over the past two years. Anxieties on Wall Street may ultimately exert downward pressure on consumer confidence, however, markets rebounded Tuesday. However, short of a full-blown epidemic in the U.S., there is no immediate reason to believe the coronavirus poses a long-term threat to consumers’ finances or the country’s economic outlook. (Slide 9)

• Fed Sets Rates Against Backdrop of Upbeat Consumers – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, Jan. 28, with four new voting members representing the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia, Cleveland, Minneapolis and Dallas. At first glance, consumers across the 12 districts appear to view the economy differently. For example, there is an 11-point spread between consumers in Boston and Atlanta in Morning Consult’s January ICS. However, consumers’ reactions over time are remarkably similar, particularly during periods of financial stress and uncertainty, such as the stock-market selloff in December 2018 and the trade war escalation in August and September 2019. Since the FOMC last met in December, consumer confidence is higher across all 12 districts, supporting an upbeat consensus view of consumer confidence. (Slide 11)

6

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Morning-Consult-Economic-Intelligence_01.15.20.pdf


WEEKLY DASHBOARD(Week of 01/20/2020 - 01/26/2020)

Value Weekly Change* Intraweek Volatility 30-Day Trend

ICS (Consumer Sentiment) 114.5 ↑ 0.6 Stable Increasing

ICE (Future Expectations) 115.4 ↑ 0.9 Stable Decreasing

ICC (Current Conditions) 113.3 ↑ 0.3 Elevated Decreasing

Personal Finances: Current Conditions 104.6 ↓ 0.2 Elevated Decreasing

Personal Finances: 12 Month Expectations 130.7 ↑ 0.6 Stable Increasing

Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations 114.7 ↑ 0.9 Stable Decreasing

Business Conditions: 5 Year Expectations 100.7 ↑ 1.2 Stable Increasing

Current Buying Conditions 122.0 ↑ 0.7 Stable Decreasing

*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 7


10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

8/1/19: Trump confirms increase in tariffs on Chinese goods

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods3/1/18: U.S.

trade war begins

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20

Index of Consumer Sentiment (Jan 1, 2018 – Jan 26, 2020)

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods

10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

3/1/19: U.S. trade war begins

8/14/19: 10-2 yield curve inverts

11/15/19: All yield curves uninvert

10/11/19: US announces “phase one” trade deal with China

8/1/19: Trump confirms tariff increase on Chinese goods

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Inde

x (O

nlin

e)

Morning Consult Daily Morning Consult Monthly

7,500/day 210,000/month

University of Michigan Monthly

600/month

Michigan Index (P

hone)

Note: There are three primary reasons why Morning Consult and the University of Michigan appear on different axes: (1) Michigan deflates its values so that 1966 serves as its base year, which is not appropriate for Morning Consult’s data; (2) a higher percentage of survey respondents answer “Don’t Know” or “No Opinion” in Morning Consult’s Economic Intelligence Survey, thus providing a richer data set in terms of measuring respondents’ uncertainty; and (3) Morning Consult’s dramatically larger sample sizes reduce a mean-adjusted measure of variance.

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

01/02/20:US kills Iranian general

8


6-Week Snapshot Analysis: Daily U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

9

110.3

111.5

111.1110.6

111.4

111.5

112.7

111.4

113.2

112

111.4

112.9

111.2

112.3112.3

112.2112

112.8 112.8

112.2

111.4

111.1111.6

112.8

111.8112.8

112.2

111.5

113.3113.9

113

112.8

113.4

114

113.9

114.7

115.2

113.9

115114.5

115.1

115.9

114.7

114.9

113.4112.4

112.1111.6

112.7

113.8

113.5

113.3

114.3

113.4

114.6

113.9

112.2

114.1

114.8

115115.3

114.1

114.9

113.3

114.1

115.1

106

109

113

117

94

96

100

102

11/22/19

11/25/19

11/28/19

12/0

1/19

12/0

4/19

12/0

7/19

12/10

/19

12/13

/19

12/16

/19

12/19

/19

12/2

2/19

12/2

5/19

12/2

8/19

12/3

1/19

01/03/2

0

01/06/2

0

01/09/2

0

01/12/2

0

01/15/2

0

01/18/2

0

01/21/2

0

01/24/2

0

01/27/2

0

Morning Consult Daily (7,500/day)

University of Michigan Monthly (600/month)

12/6/19: November jobs report beats expectations

12/13/19: US and China announce completion of “Phase One” trade deal

12/20/19: November household income gains beat expectations

01/08/20: President Trump announces U.S. “ready to embrace peace”

01/08/20: Iran counterstrikes bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops

01/15/20: U.S. and China sign phase one trade deal

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Inde

x (O

nlin

e)M

ichigan Index (Phone)


CONSUMER INDICES(7-Day Moving Average Over Past 365 Days)

10

100

105

110

115

120

Feb-2019

Mar-2

019

Apr-2019

May-2

019

Jun-2

019

Jul-2

019

Aug-2019

Sep-2019

Oct-2019

Nov-2019

Dec-2019

Jan-2

020

Feb-2020

ICC (Current Conditions) ICE (Future Expectations) ICS (Consumer Sentiment)


Two-Year Trend Analysis: Fed Districts

11

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1/1/

182/

1/18

3/1/

184/

1/18

5/1/

186/

1/18

7/1/

188/

1/18

9/1/

1810

/1/1

811

/1/1

812

/1/1

81/

1/19

2/1/

193/

1/19

4/1/

195/

1/19

6/1/

197/

1/19

8/1/

199/

1/19

10/1

/19

11/1

/19

12/1

/19

1/1/

20

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2/1/

18

3/1/

18

4/1/

18

5/1/

18

6/1/

18

7/1/

18

8/1/

18

9/1/

18

10/1

/18

11/1

/18

12/1

/18

1/1/

19

2/1/

19

3/1/

19

4/1/

19

5/1/

19

6/1/

19

7/1/

19

8/1/

19

9/1/

19

10/1

/19

11/1

/19

12/1

/19

1/1/

20

ICS (Monthly) Change in ICS (M-o-M)Values above 0 indicate monthly increases


INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)



INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT ( ICS ) OVER T IME(Weekly)

W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W

114.5 114.8 106.7(12/30/2019) (01/27/2019)(As of 01/26/2020)

12

105.6

106.7

109.4108.6

109.7 109.7

110.5

109.5 110.3

111

110.7 110.7

111

111.7112.6

111.1

110.3

110 110 109.9

110.4

111.4

111

112.3

111.7

111.8 111.8

111.7

109.6

107.7

107.3 107

107.7

108.3

107.7

108.5108.4

108.2108.4

109.1109.3110.2

110.8

111.3111.8

112112.1

112.7

114

114.8

112.8

113.9

114.5

114.5

114.5

106

110

114

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0


KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(01/20/2020 - 01/26/2020)



Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low

Demo: Age

18-24 115.9 ↑ 0.6 115.9 108.9

25-34 119.0 ↑ 2.0 119.5 111.0

35-44 116.3 ↓ 0.8 117.1 106.8

45-54 114.0 ↑ 0.8 114.1 105.7

55-64 111.6 ↑ 1.3 113.5 103.9

65+ 111.4 ↓ 0.1 111.6 102.2

Demo: Gender

Male 119.6 ↓ 0.1 119.8 111.3

Female 109.8 ↑ 1.4 110.2 101.8






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 108.7 ↑ 1.3 108.7 101.2

$50K-$100K 120.5 ↓ 0.1 121.1 111.7

$100K+ 127.3 ↓ 0.3 127.6 116.0

$100K-$150K 125.6 ↓ 2.0 127.6 115.6

$150-$200K 129.2 ↑ 2.2 129.2 114.3

$200-$250K 130.0 ↑ 3.6 130.0 110.6

$250K+ 134.0 ↑ 3.4 134.0 115.7






Demo: Education

Less Than College 113.9 ↑ 0.9 114.2 106.8

Bachelor's Degree 117.1 0.0 117.3 106.9

Post-Grad 113.8 ↑ 0.1 113.8 102.5

Demo: Race/Ethnicity

African American 112.5 ↑ 1.2 113.4 101.5

Hispanic 116.2 ↑ 1.9 116.2 107.5

Other 108.9 ↑ 0.1 110.7 102.4

White 114.8 ↑ 0.3 115.1 107.4






Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)

Educational Services 115.9 ↑ 2.4 116.4 105.3

Financial Activities 126.5 ↓ 0.2 127.6 112.9

Health Care 119.7 ↑ 2.8 119.7 108.9

Information 122.6 ↓ 0.2 122.7 111.2

Leisure and Hospitality 115.5 ↑ 4.2 119.9 98.3

Professional and Business Services 121.3 ↑ 1.5 121.3 107.9

Real Estate and Property 123.5 ↓ 5.7 134.1 114.2

Retail Trade 119.9 ↑ 0.5 119.9 108.1

Transportation 124.8 ↑ 1.8 127.5 113.3






Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)

Agriculture 129.7 ↑ 9.8 130.8 109.6

Construction 127.8 ↓ 1.3 131.0 118.1

Manufacturing 125.4 ↓ 1.1 127.3 117.0

Demo: Employment Industry (Other)

Defense 134.1 ↑ 5.7 137.7 108.1

Other 116.3 ↓ 0.2 116.7 108.7

Public Administration 117.4 ↓ 4.9 127.5 97.1






Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder

Total 123.8 ↓ 1.9 125.7 114.9

Businesses with 1-5 Employees 119.5 ↓ 0.1 120.4 110.7



Businesses with More than 101 Employees 149.4 ↓ 2.0 157.5 122.5

Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development

Works in Sales or Business Development 124.0 ↓ 0.3 124.3 114.2






Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics

Total 120.7 ↓ 1.7 122.4 112.7





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 120.5 ↑ 1.3 123.8 110.3

Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 119.7 ↓ 4.9 126.0 108.7






Demo: Housing Assets

Homeowners 117.9 0.0 118.2 109.5

Renters 110.8 ↑ 1.4 110.8 103.9

Other 106.4 ↑ 1.5 107.0 99.3

Demo: Equity Market Investments

$50K+ 122.9 ↓ 1.4 124.3 112.5

Less than $50K 119.1 ↑ 0.8 119.7 109.9

None 109.5 ↑ 1.5 109.6 102.5

Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments

Total 123.7 ↓ 1.6 125.3 113.2






Demo: Daily Media Consumers

The New York Times 110.7 ↓ 9.6 120.3 93.0

The Wall Street Journal 130.9 ↑ 0.5 132.1 108.6

Fox News Channel 142.3 ↑ 0.9 144.9 131.1

CNN 102.7 ↑ 5.1 105.1 90.9

MSNBC 97.8 ↓ 2.5 102.5 85.2

Twitter 118.1 ↓ 1.0 119.1 109.7

Facebook 115.8 ↑ 0.3 116.3 107.5






Demo: Political Ideology

Conservative 138.5 ↑ 0.8 138.5 129.6

Liberal 97.6 ↑ 1.4 97.6 87.7

Moderate 109.0 ↑ 0.2 109.2 100.9

Demo: Trump Approval

Approve 141.6 ↑ 0.6 141.6 135.6

Disapprove 94.2 ↑ 1.2 94.4 85.5

Demo: 2016 Presidential Election

Republican Donald Trump 143.8 ↑ 0.3 143.8 135.8

Democrat Hillary Clinton 92.8 ↑ 0.7 92.8 82.1

Someone Else 101.7 ↓ 0.4 102.6 93.3


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/20/2020 - 01/26/2020)

ICS


Federal Reserve Districts

Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value105.3 to 112.7112.7 to 114.3114.3 to 116.2116.2 to 122.1

Districts ValueWeekly

Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 105.3 ↑ 0.3 107.0 97.6

New York (2) 115.3 ↑ 5.3 115.3 103.9

Philadelphia (3) 114.2 ↑ 4.6 114.2 101.5

Cleveland (4) 109.4 ↓ 3.5 112.9 104.7

Richmond (5) 114.4 ↓ 2.8 117.6 108.3

Atlanta (6) 122.1 ↑ 1.4 122.1 112.0

Chicago (7) 113.0 ↑ 1.3 113.4 103.8

St. Louis (8) 115.6 ↓ 0.4 117.8 107.1

Minneapolis (9) 117.9 ↑ 7.6 117.9 102.7

Kansas City (10) 111.8 ↓ 1.2 113.0 104.5

Dallas (11) 121.7 ↑ 3.9 121.7 111.3

San Francisco (12) 114.0 ↑ 3.1 114.0 103.3


INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)



INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS ( ICE ) OVER T IME(Weekly)


115.4 115.4 106.2(01/20/2020) (01/27/2019)(As of 01/26/2020)

25

104.8

106.7

110

108.8

109.7

109.8110.5

109.4110.2

110.9

110.2 110.4

110.9

112

113.3

111.3

110.3

109.9

110.1

109.7

110.4

111.4

111

112.8

112112 112

111.6

109.6

107

106.2 106.3

107.1

107.8

107.1

108.1

108.1

108.2108.1

109.4109.6

111

111.2111.7

112

112.6113 113.5

114.2115.3

113.2

114.5

115.4

115.4

115.4

105

110

115

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0






Demo: Age

18-24 118.4 ↑ 1.5 118.4 109.4

25-34 122.6 ↑ 2.8 122.6 112.7

35-44 119.5 ↓ 0.3 119.8 108.8

45-54 115.3 ↑ 1.0 116.0 106.1

55-64 110.5 ↑ 1.2 112.7 101.6

65+ 108.0 ↓ 0.6 108.6 97.3

Demo: Gender

Male 120.8 ↑ 0.2 120.8 110.3

Female 110.3 ↑ 1.6 110.8 101.7






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 111.1 ↑ 1.7 111.1 102.8

$50K-$100K 119.9 0.0 120.3 109.2

$100K+ 124.4 ↓ 0.1 124.5 110.4

$100K-$150K 123.3 ↓ 1.7 124.9 110.3

$150-$200K 125.5 ↑ 1.8 125.5 108.1

$200-$250K 124.5 ↑ 2.4 124.8 103.4

$250K+ 129.9 ↑ 4.7 129.9 108.9






Demo: Education


Bachelor's Degree 116.1 ↑ 0.2 116.1 103.4

Post-Grad 110.9 ↑ 0.4 110.9 97.8



Hispanic 118.3 ↑ 2.6 118.3 107.9

Other 109.1 ↑ 0.1 111.3 100.2

White 115.1 ↑ 0.5 115.2 106.0







Educational Services 115.5 ↑ 4.2 115.5 102.8

Financial Activities 126.8 ↑ 1.0 126.8 110.7

Health Care 120.4 ↑ 4.0 120.7 107.3

Information 122.9 ↑ 0.8 122.9 108.6




Retail Trade 122.2 ↑ 1.1 122.2 108.2

Transportation 126.2 ↑ 1.7 130.8 113.6







Agriculture 132.1 ↑ 9.3 135.8 108.7

Construction 131.0 ↓ 0.1 133.9 119.6

Manufacturing 125.2 ↓ 2.2 127.7 115.3


Defense 135.1 ↑ 7.7 135.1 106.2

Other 117.4 ↑ 0.5 117.4 107.3








Total 126.1 ↓ 0.8 126.9 114.3

Businesses with 1-5 Employees 122.8 ↑ 1.6 122.8 112.0












Total 121.5 ↓ 1.4 123.5 112.1





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 120.4 ↑ 2.6 125.9 108.5








Homeowners 117.1 0.0 117.5 107.2

Renters 113.5 ↑ 2.0 113.5 104.5

Other 110.5 ↑ 2.0 110.6 102.2


$50K+ 119.4 ↓ 1.4 120.9 107.1

Less than $50K 120.3 ↑ 1.1 120.6 109.0

None 112.1 ↑ 1.8 112.1 104.2


Total 119.8 ↓ 2.0 121.8 107.5








The Wall Street Journal 129.1 ↓ 0.5 130.4 103.7

Fox News Channel 144.4 ↑ 0.3 146.4 132.2

CNN 100.3 ↑ 5.6 101.7 84.8

MSNBC 95.9 ↓ 0.4 98.1 79.0

Twitter 118.7 ↓ 1.0 119.7 107.7

Facebook 117.1 ↑ 0.5 117.5 108.1







Conservative 141.2 ↑ 0.9 141.3 132.4

Liberal 95.7 ↑ 2.1 95.7 83.1

Moderate 109.1 0.0 109.1 99.4


Approve 145.7 ↑ 0.8 145.7 139.5

Disapprove 92.2 ↑ 1.6 92.2 80.9




Someone Else 100.2 ↑ 0.2 101.6 90.3


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/20/2020 - 01/26/2020)

ICE



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value105.4 to 112.9112.9 to 114.8114.8 to 117.6117.6 to 123.3


Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 105.4 ↑ 2.3 105.7 95.5

New York (2) 114.9 ↑ 4.4 114.9 102.3

Philadelphia (3) 115.8 ↑ 6.0 115.8 101.3

Cleveland (4) 107.2 ↓ 5.8 113.0 103.3

Richmond (5) 114.8 ↓ 3.5 118.5 108.6

Atlanta (6) 123.3 ↑ 0.9 123.3 112.9

Chicago (7) 113.4 ↑ 2.6 113.6 102.0

St. Louis (8) 117.4 ↑ 0.4 118.7 106.4

Minneapolis (9) 118.2 ↑ 8.9 118.2 99.8

Kansas City (10) 111.4 ↓ 2.8 114.1 104.8

Dallas (11) 122.2 ↑ 2.4 122.2 111.9

San Francisco (12) 114.5 ↑ 3.2 114.5 101.7


INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)



INDEX OF CURRENT CONDIT IONS ( ICC) OVER T IME(Weekly)


113.3 114.0 106.6(12/30/2019) (01/28/2019)(As of 01/26/2020)

38

106.8

106.6

108.5

108.4

109.7109.7

110.4

109.8

110.3

111.1

111.4

111.1 111.1

111.2 111.6

110.8

110.2110.1 109.8

110.2

110.4

111.2111111.6

111.2111.4

111.6111.9

109.7

108.8

109

108

108.7

109.1

108.6

109.2

108.8

108.2

108.9

108.7 108.8

109.1

110.3

110.6

111.6 111.2

110.8

111.4

113.7114

112.2

113.1

113.3

113.3113.3

104

108

112

116

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0






Demo: Age

18-24 112.0 ↓ 0.7 114.6 107.4

25-34 113.5 ↑ 0.7 115.2 107.7

35-44 111.6 ↓ 1.5 113.1 103.8

45-54 112.0 ↑ 0.7 113.1 104.7

55-64 113.3 ↑ 1.4 114.6 106.8

65+ 116.5 ↑ 0.5 116.5 108.1

Demo: Gender

Male 117.8 ↓ 0.6 118.9 111.6

Female 109.1 ↑ 1.1 109.4 101.9






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 105.2 ↑ 0.8 105.4 98.9

$50K-$100K 121.3 ↓ 0.2 122.3 115.3

$100K+ 131.8 ↓ 0.5 132.3 123.5

$100K-$150K 129.1 ↓ 2.4 131.5 122.8

$150-$200K 134.7 ↑ 2.7 136.3 123.8

$200-$250K 138.2 ↑ 5.3 138.2 121.5

$250K+ 140.1 ↑ 1.5 140.1 124.1






Demo: Education


Bachelor's Degree 118.7 ↓ 0.3 119.8 110.2

Post-Grad 118.1 ↓ 0.3 118.4 109.4



Hispanic 113.0 ↑ 0.9 114.1 106.8

Other 108.5 ↓ 0.1 111.1 102.1

White 114.3 ↓ 0.1 114.9 107.7







Educational Services 116.5 ↓ 0.3 118.5 108.3

Financial Activities 126.0 ↓ 1.9 128.8 115.2

Health Care 118.7 ↑ 1.1 118.7 110.3

Information 122.0 ↓ 1.6 124.2 113.7




Retail Trade 116.4 ↓ 0.4 118.1 106.9

Transportation 122.8 ↑ 2.0 123.2 110.3







Agriculture 126.2 ↑ 10.7 127.9 104.8

Construction 123.1 ↓ 3.0 127.5 115.7

Manufacturing 125.7 ↑ 0.7 127.1 118.1


Defense 132.5 ↑ 2.7 143.0 102.9

Other 114.6 ↓ 1.2 116.2 108.6








Total 120.3 ↓ 3.6 123.9 112.6



Businesses with 21-100 Employees 133.3 0.0 145.2 113.4










Total 119.5 ↓ 2.1 121.6 113.7





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 120.6 ↓ 0.6 125.4 113.1








Homeowners 119.1 0.0 119.5 111.5

Renters 106.8 ↑ 0.4 107.7 101.7

Other 100.3 ↑ 0.9 101.6 94.8


$50K+ 128.0 ↓ 1.3 129.3 118.2

Less than $50K 117.4 ↑ 0.5 118.3 111.2

None 105.5 ↑ 1.0 106.0 99.8


Total 129.5 ↓ 1.0 130.6 119.3








The Wall Street Journal 133.5 ↑ 2.1 140.3 114.5

Fox News Channel 139.2 ↑ 1.8 142.6 127.8

CNN 106.3 ↑ 4.4 110.2 98.4

MSNBC 100.7 ↓ 5.7 109.1 92.3

Twitter 117.3 ↓ 1.0 119.3 111.1

Facebook 113.9 0.0 114.5 106.8







Conservative 134.6 ↑ 0.7 134.6 125.5

Liberal 100.4 ↑ 0.3 101.3 94.3

Moderate 108.8 ↑ 0.5 109.7 102.6


Approve 135.4 ↑ 0.3 135.6 128.7

Disapprove 97.3 ↑ 0.7 98.2 91.8




Someone Else 104.1 ↓ 1.3 105.9 96.2


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/20/2020 - 01/26/2020)

ICC



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value105.2 to 112.4112.4 to 113.1113.1 to 116.2116.2 to 121.1


Change*52-Week

High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 105.2 ↓ 2.7 109.5 100.9

New York (2) 115.8 ↑ 6.6 115.8 106.0

Philadelphia (3) 111.7 ↑ 2.5 113.9 101.9

Cleveland (4) 112.7 0.0 113.3 106.2

Richmond (5) 113.9 ↓ 1.6 116.4 108.0

Atlanta (6) 120.4 ↑ 2.1 120.4 110.8

Chicago (7) 112.3 ↓ 0.6 113.1 105.6

St. Louis (8) 113.0 ↓ 1.6 116.5 105.9

Minneapolis (9) 117.3 ↑ 5.7 117.3 104.3

Kansas City (10) 112.4 ↑ 1.2 112.4 104.0

Dallas (11) 121.1 ↑ 6.2 121.1 109.9

San Francisco (12) 113.2 ↑ 2.9 113.2 104.9


PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



PERSONAL F INANCES: CURRENT CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


104.6 105.4 98.9(12/30/2019) (01/28/2019)(As of 01/26/2020)

51

99.8

98.9

100.2

100

101.5

101.1

102.3

101.6102

102.7

103.7

102.7

103103

103.3

102.7

102.6

101.9 101.8

102.5

102.6

103.3

102.6

103.4

103

103.2103.7

104.2

101.6

100.9

101.4

100

101.2

101.3

100.5

101.3100.8

100

100.699.8

99.7 99.8

101.3

100.6

102.1

101.2

101

101.8

104.9

105.4

103.7

104.8

104.6

99

102

105

108

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 107.4 ↓ 0.6 111.7 102.5

25-34 107.9 ↑ 0.6 109.5 101.6

35-44 102.3 ↓ 2.5 105.7 97.3

45-54 102.9 ↑ 0.7 104.3 95.3

55-64 102.3 ↑ 0.1 103.5 95.4

65+ 105.3 0.0 105.4 96.6

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 94.3 ↑ 0.6 94.3 88.9

$50K-$100K 114.5 ↓ 1.2 115.8 109.2

$100K+ 128.3 ↓ 0.8 129.1 120.7

$100K-$150K 124.5 ↓ 2.7 127.2 119.2

$150-$200K 133.0 ↑ 3.0 133.0 121.2

$200-$250K 137.1 ↑ 2.7 138.6 118.8

$250K+ 138.5 ↑ 2.0 139.6 123.1


PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



PERSONAL F INANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


130.7 130.8 125.6(12/30/2019) (09/02/2019)(As of 01/26/2020)

54

125.8

127.2

128.9

127.7

128

127.8

128

127.7

128.9

129.3

129.2

128.3

129.1

130.2130.5

128.8

128.7

127.9

128.6

127.9

126.9

128.4

128.2

129.9

128.8 128.8

128.5128.6

127.8

126.8

126.1

125.8125.6

125.8

125.6

126.6

126.2

126.7

126.3

127.8

127.4

128.4 128.7

129

127.9

128.8

129.5129.5

129.4

130.8

129.6

130.1

130.7

125.0

127.5

130.0

132.5

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 143.2 ↑ 0.2 144.6 137.9

25-34 147.6 ↑ 2.5 149.3 143.3

35-44 139.8 ↓ 1.0 141.0 134.1

45-54 131.4 ↑ 1.4 131.6 124.0

55-64 120.1 ↑ 1.4 121.9 113.2

65+ 109.6 ↓ 0.9 110.5 102.3

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 127.7 ↑ 1.3 127.9 122.5

$50K-$100K 133.8 ↓ 0.9 134.7 127.8

$100K+ 137.6 ↑ 1.3 138.1 129.9

$100K-$150K 136.0 ↓ 0.2 138.1 130.0

$150-$200K 140.5 ↑ 2.6 142.0 128.9

$200-$250K 137.5 ↓ 0.1 142.0 128.7

$250K+ 142.6 ↑ 10.6 142.6 126.6


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


114.7 114.7 101.9(01/26/2020) (01/27/2019)(As of 01/26/2020)

57

100.3

102.3

106.7

105.5

106.9

107.1

108.4

107

108

109

107.8

108.7

109.2

110.2

112.5

109.6

107.4

107.5

107.1 107

109.1

109.9109.4

110.5110.7

110.9 111.3

109.8

106.8

103.1

101.9102.4

103.7

104.8 104.1

105.2 105.2

104.8

105.4

106.5107.5

108.9 109.3

110.2

110.9111.3

112

113.1

114114.5

111.3

113.7114.7

100

105

110

115

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 112.6 ↑ 0.8 113.3 101.5

25-34 116.9 ↑ 2.9 116.9 103.5

35-44 115.8 ↑ 0.8 115.8 100.7

45-54 113.4 0.0 114.4 101.8

55-64 112.7 ↑ 0.9 115.2 100.6

65+ 115.8 0.0 115.8 99.9

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 110.1 ↑ 1.7 110.1 98.6

$50K-$100K 119.6 ↑ 0.4 119.6 105.2

$100K+ 124.1 ↓ 1.1 125.1 104.3

$100K-$150K 122.3 ↓ 3.6 125.9 104.4

$150-$200K 126.9 ↑ 4.3 126.9 101.2

$200-$250K 124.1 ↑ 2.8 124.1 94.7

$250K+ 130.2 ↑ 1.2 130.7 102.3


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


100.7 100.7 90.6(01/26/2020) (01/27/2019)(As of 01/26/2020)

60

88.2

90.6

94.4

93.2

94.1

94.395.1

93.4

93.894.4

93.7 94.1

94.5

95.8

96.9

95.6

94.894.4

94.5

94.3

95.2

96

95.3

97.9

96.7

96.4 96.396.3

94.1

91

90.6 90.8

91.9

92.7

91.792.4

92.9

93.1

92.6

93.893.9

95.695.6

95.997.2

97.7

97.4

97.999.2

100.6

98.6

99.5

100.7

90

95

100

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 99.5 ↑ 3.6 99.5 87.2

25-34 103.5 ↑ 3.0 103.5 89.7

35-44 102.7 ↓ 0.8 103.5 89.9

45-54 101.1 ↑ 1.5 102.1 90.5

55-64 98.6 ↑ 1.4 101.0 89.4

65+ 98.7 ↓ 0.8 100.0 89.9

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 95.4 ↑ 2.1 95.4 85.7

$50K-$100K 106.5 ↑ 0.3 106.9 94.7

$100K+ 111.5 ↓ 0.5 112.0 96.2

$100K-$150K 111.5 ↓ 1.2 112.7 96.4

$150-$200K 109.0 ↓ 1.4 110.7 92.1

$200-$250K 111.8 ↑ 4.6 114.1 84.6

$250K+ 116.9 ↑ 2.5 116.9 95.5


CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



CURRENT BUYING CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


122.0 122.5 114.2(12/23/2019) (01/27/2019)(As of 01/26/2020)

63

113.7

114.2

116.7 116.7

118

118.4118.5

117.9118.6

119.4

119.2

119.5

119.3

119.5120

118.8

117.8

118.3

117.8 118118.3

119.2119.3

119.9

119.4

119.5

119.5

119.5

117.8

116.8116.6

116 116.1

116.9

116.7

117.1116.7

116.4117.1

117.5

117.9118.4

119.3

120.7

121121.2

120.6

121

122.5 122.5

120.8121.3

122

115

120

125

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/0

1/19

11/01/1

9

12/0

1/19

01/01/2

0



CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 116.6 ↓ 0.8 118.6 110.9

25-34 119.1 ↑ 0.9 121.0 111.0

35-44 120.8 ↓ 0.6 121.4 110.4

45-54 121.0 ↑ 0.6 121.9 114.0

55-64 124.4 ↑ 2.7 125.8 116.4

65+ 127.7 ↑ 1.0 127.7 119.5

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 116.0 ↑ 1.0 116.6 108.9

$50K-$100K 128.1 ↑ 0.9 128.9 120.1

$100K+ 135.3 ↓ 0.2 136.2 125.4

$100K-$150K 133.6 ↓ 2.1 135.8 125.3

$150-$200K 136.3 ↑ 2.3 141.1 123.9

$200-$250K 139.4 ↑ 8.0 139.4 120.1

$250K+ 141.7 ↑ 0.9 141.7 121.7


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Sampling Method

Morning Consult Economic Intelligence interviews about 7,500 adults per day in the US. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience.

Survey Questions

Survey respondents answer the same five questions:

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

Data Processing

The data are then weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region according to US Census data. Weekly results aggregate daily surveys conducted from Monday through Sunday. Monthly results aggregate daily surveys conducted during the calendar month.

Relative Score and Index Calculations

The relative scores for each of the five questions reflect the percent of favorable replies minus the percent of unfavorable replies plus 100. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is a simple average of all five relative scores. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 2, 3 and 4. Finally, the Index of Current Conditions (ICC) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 1 and 5.

Intraweek Volatility and 30-Day Trend

Intraweek Volatility compares the day-to-day volatility within a given week to average intraweek volatility. “Stable” weeks are those with average or below average volatility. “Elevated” weeks are those with above average volatility. The 30-Day Trend captures the slope of the line of best fit for the past 30 days of smoothed daily data. All positive slopes are considered increasing trends, and all negative slopes are decreasing trends.

METHODOLOGY

66


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