ECONOMIC MACRO FACTORS vs ADULTS’ LEARNING MOTIVATIONS  

Center for the Advancementof Women Foundation

Innovations  in Adult Learning IMAL

Grundtvig Learning Partnerships, 4th Partners Meeting

Zaragoza, 23-24 October 2014 

Learning Motivations: Macro Factors - POLAND

POLISH MACRO FACTORS POLISH MACRO FACTORS 

Socio-economic context – Poland (1) Socio-economic context – Poland (1) 

The post-WW II history of Poland splits in two phases: communist regime (since 1945) and III-rd Republic (since 1989). The WW II itself had a tremendous impact as well: Population: Poland lost 11 million (35%) of the population of 35 million: 6,03 million killed (17,3% -

the highest % of all countries), other 5 million either emigrated or had their citizenship changed due to borders changes as Poland lost 1/3 of it’s former territory

Economy: centrally planned economy led to total bancrupcy of the system, resulting in free eletions on the 4th of June 1989 & the victory of the SOLIDARITY; this happened behind the iron curtain, before the Berlin Wall fall, with 100 000 Russian troops still in the country....

Education & Science – to large extent disconnected from world developments and trends due to the political & budgetary constraints; strict limits on the number of students resulting in 1989 with only 7% of the population with tertiary education, preferential treatment of the working class offspring and restrcitions for these of intelligentsia.

So called People’s Democratic System – a distorted concept The institutional/legal systems – window dressing;dominating Communist Party rule

Therefore the overall statistics for Poland without breaking into age groups & analysis of particular circumstances dim and distort the picture

POLISH MACRO FACTORS POLISH MACRO FACTORS 

Socio-economic context – Poland (2) Socio-economic context – Poland (2)  Since joining the EU in 2004 Polish GDP grew from 39% EU

average to 68% in 2013; with purchasing power of 74%

GDP size-wise it is today the 8th economy in the UE

Budget surplus of 37% has been obtained for the Ist Quarter of 2014 and the government debt is 49,5% compared to 88% EU-28 average

Poland has not suffered from the crisis of 2008 to the extent experienced by all other EU countries, remaining „a green island” till today

„„green  island”  2009green  island”  2009

The % of population with tertiary education in the The % of population with tertiary education in the age group 30-34; Poland and EU 27 in the period age group 30-34; Poland and EU 27 in the period

2000-2010. (2000-2010. (Eurostat,March 2013Eurostat,March 2013) )

Figures and facts Figures and facts 

BUT: when we take a look from a different angle we see the magic of statistics. The so far achieved progress cannot continue at the same speed if some macro-factors do not change. 1.Polish economy is based on imported technologies .Little is invested in R&D by companies and the state, including in education2.The size of the economy takes the impressive 8th place, but productivity  is low , circa 60% of the EU average. 3.Education is not properly integrated with market needs and industry requirements 4.Low productivity equals low GDP per capita. With low productivity wages MUST be low. 5.Low productivity combined with high unemployment & low economic activity additionally affect the GDP per capita figure. 6.Open labour markets in EU instigate emigration.

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by sector, 2007 and 2012Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by sector, 2007 and 2012

Population, education & living conditonsPopulation, education & living conditons

Poland scores close the EU-28 average:

Age groups 15> & <65 respectively 15% & 14,2% as

compared to EU-28: 15,6% & 18,2%

Education attainment 3-6 levels: M 83,2 & F 84,6%; in

younger age group F much higher than M

Early leavers: M 7,9% & F 3,2%, one of the lowest

Birth rate: 1,30 - 1,58; Poland scores THE LOWEST

Life expectancy: M 72,7 & F 83,2 ( EU-28: 77,5 &

83,1)

Economic activity Economic activity 

In this aspect Poland with it’s figure of 60% has some work to do to reach the EU average of 64,1% ; (some tables show for Poland 64,8%! due to the methodological differences, for example age brackets 15-64 or 20-64).

Interestingly enough the female economic activity indicator is only 0,7% lower from UE average for women. It has increased in the last 6 years by nearly 10%.

Economic activity Economic activity 

Employment rates Employment rates 

Poland has managed to lower the unemployment rate to 9,9% ; this figure shows that shortages of workforce on the labour market are likely to surface in foreseable future

Roughly half of the unemployed are long-term

The unemployment rate among young people (15-24) for June 2014 is 23,1% , and dropped from 29,20% in March 2013.

GDP  per capita and salary level GDP  per capita and salary level 

• The figures in the next slide explain the correlation between opportunities for the young and the emigration phenomenen that among EU-28 has affected stronger only Romania (2,4 million people)

GDP per capita  &  salary level GDP per capita  &  salary level 

EMIGRATON EMIGRATON 

Since 2004 over 2 million, mainly young Nearly 10% of the Polish occupationally active population,

with familiesResults:

Accelerated population agingLoss for the state budget Growing deficit of the national social security system

(pensions)Lack of workforce in certain industries; not obvious for

the economy at large due to still high unemployment rateIN EFFECT : Slowing down economic growth

Emigration: motivationsEmigration: motivations

• Stability of work • Easier start and career development• Higher wages• Easier living & working conditions (services, social

systems/welfare states, bureacracy, legislation, courts etc.)

The most pressing challenges for PolandThe most pressing challenges for PolandGENERAL GOAL• to assure economic growth and good living/ working conditions for

the pulation at large SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES• To increase investment in R&D• To enhance coopertaion between busienss & educational

institutions• To increase the % of people economically active• To increase the % of 30-40 years old population with tertiary

education • To reduce emigration levels and instigate returns • To increase trust in various institutions

POLAND MACRO FACTORSPOLAND MACRO FACTORS

 Europe 2020 and national targets vs current situation Europe 2020 and national targets vs current situation

 Europe 2020 headline targets

Current situationin Poland (2012)

National 2020target in the

NRP

3% of EU's GDP to be invested in research

and development

1.26% (2010) 1.7%

75% of the population aged 20-64 should

be employed

64,8% (2012) 71%

Reducing early school leaving to lessthan 10%

5,4% (2012) 4,5%

At least 40% of 30-34 year oldcompleting tertiary or equivalenteducation

35.3% (2011) 45%

Reducing the number of people in or atrisk of poverty or exclusion by at least

20million

10,4 million people(2010)

1,5 million peoplelifted out of

poverty

Trust on InstitutionDo you in general trust the following institutions or not? 

(2012)Trust on Institution Do you in general trust the following 

institutions or not? (2012)

Institution YES NO Hard to say Institution YES NO Hard to say

The Grand Orchestra of Christmas Charity 89 7 4 Historical Memorial Institute 55 22 23

Polish Red Cross 81 10 9 Courts 45 44 11

Caritas 80 13 7 Civil servants 45 41 14

The Army 74 15 11 TV 44 49 8

Scouts 70 9 21 The Government 39 49 12

Roman Catholic Church 69 26 5 Large companies 35 35 30

The Police 65 28 7 Newspapers 34 55 11

The Ombudsman (woman! Irena Lipowicz) 60 16 24 Churches, other denominations 30 41 29

Local goverments 58 31 11 Labour Unions 29 36 35

EU 57 26 16 Upper & Lower Chambers of the Parliament 29 55 15

NATO 57 20 23 Political parties 20 65 15

The UN 57 17 26

Economic macro factors vs adults’ learning motivations, poland   

Thank you for your attention.

Anna Jancewicz