economic outlook 2016
TRANSCRIPT
Presented by Kenneth Hunter, MPASmall Business Committee
Sources for Information
Special Thank You!
Overview
National, State, Local Information
Past & Present Trends
What does the future hold?
The National Picture
2000q1, $12.359T
2014q4, $16.151T
2015q4, $16.455T
$10T
$11T
$12T
$13T
$14T
$15T
$16T
$17T
$18T
$19T
$20T
2000
q120
00q2
2000
q320
00q4
2001
q120
01q2
2001
q320
01q4
2002
q120
02q2
2002
q320
02q4
2003
q120
03q2
2003
q320
03q4
2004
q120
04q2
2004
q320
04q4
2005
q120
05q2
2005
q320
05q4
2006
q120
06q2
2006
q320
06q4
2007
q120
07q2
2007
q320
07q4
2008
q120
08q2
2008
q320
08q4
2009
q120
09q2
2009
q320
09q4
2010
q120
10q2
2010
q320
10q4
2011
q120
11q2
2011
q320
11q4
2012
q120
12q2
2012
q320
12q4
2013
q120
13q2
2013
q320
13q4
2014
q120
14q2
2014
q320
14q4
2015
q120
15q2
2015
q320
15q4
Real US GDP (Chained 2009 Dollars) Since 2000 (Annualized)
2014q4,2.5%
2015q4,1.9%
1980-2005 Average, 3.1%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2000
q120
00q2
2000
q320
00q4
2001
q120
01q2
2001
q320
01q4
2002
q120
02q2
2002
q320
02q4
2003
q120
03q2
2003
q320
03q4
2004
q120
04q2
2004
q320
04q4
2005
q120
05q2
2005
q320
05q4
2006
q120
06q2
2006
q320
06q4
2007
q120
07q2
2007
q320
07q4
2008
q120
08q2
2008
q320
08q4
2009
q120
09q2
2009
q320
09q4
2010
q120
10q2
2010
q320
10q4
2011
q120
11q2
2011
q320
11q4
2012
q120
12q2
2012
q320
12q4
2013
q120
13q2
2013
q320
13q4
2014
q120
14q2
2014
q320
14q4
2015
q120
15q2
2015
q320
15q4
Annual Change in Real GDP Since 2000 (Annualized)
Inflation “Depends”
Wild Ride for Oil & Fuel
How’s the Market?
Market Stress Remains Subdued
Low Treasury Yields Continue
National Job Market Continues Climb
National Hiring Improving
Labor Force “New Normal” Now “Normal”
How’s North Carolina?
2014Q3, $440.49B
2015Q3, $452.68B
$300B
$325B
$350B
$375B
$400B
$425B
$450B
$475B
$500B
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
Real NC GDP (Chained 2009 Dollars) Since 2005 (Annualized)
2.8%3.2%
17.1%19.4%
-5.2%6.8%
3.9%1.5%
4.0%-2.4%
6.2%0.1%
3.0%4.8%
7.2%3.3%
-1.7%2.6%2.6%
2.2%1.0%
0.0%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
All industry totalPrivate industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Mining
Utilities Construction
Manufacturing Wholesale trade
Retail trade Transportation and warehousing
Information Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, and technical services
Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and waste management services
Educational services Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services, except government
Government
Year-to-Year Change in NC Real GDP (3rd Quarter 2015)
What About Rocky Mount?
2014, $6.18B
$3B
$4B
$5B
$6B
$7B
$8B
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rocky Mount MSA Real GDP (Chained Dollars) Since 2001
4.3%
1.4%
3.8%
-1.5%
0.1%
4.8%
3.6%
2.5%
-0.7%
0.6%
4.6%
-1.4%
2.2%
5.9%
-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Asheville
Burlington
Durham-Chapel Hill
Fayetteville
Goldsboro
Greensboro-High Point
Greenville
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton
Jacksonville
New Bern
Raleigh
Rocky Mount
Wilmington
Winston-Salem
1-Year Change in MSA Real GDP (2014)
23,6
46
23,8
02
23,9
27
24,0
74
23,9
60
24,1
09
23,8
50
23,8
88
23,4
70
23,6
29 24
,379
24,3
92
24,0
54
21,9
72
21,7
65
21,9
23
22,1
00
21,8
47
21,8
11
21,4
87
21,5
05
21,1
77
21,5
15 22
,318
22,4
37
22,2
13
20K
21K
22K
23K
24K
25K
2014/12 2015/1 2015/2 2015/3 2015/4 2015/5 2015/6 2015/7 2015/8 2015/9 2015/10 2015/11 2015/12
Labor Force & Employment Levels,City of Rocky Mount, December 2014 to December 2015
Labor Force Employed
66,2
36
66,4
41
66,7
95
67,0
20
66,3
68
66,8
23
66,0
81
66,2
08
65,0
36
65,4
23 67
,682
68,0
33
67,1
33
61,5
46
60,9
67
61,4
08
61,9
13
61,1
89
61,0
79
60,1
87
60,2
39
59,3
08
60,2
55 62
,512
62,8
46
62,2
13
55K
60K
65K
70K
2014/12 2015/1 2015/2 2015/3 2015/4 2015/5 2015/6 2015/7 2015/8 2015/9 2015/10 2015/11 2015/12
Labor Force & Employment Levels,Rocky Mount MSA, December 2014 to December 2015
Labor Force Employed
4.8%
4.4%
4.3%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
3.1%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
-1.6
%
1.1%
1.1%
4.1%
3.2%
1.8%
1.0% 1.2% 1.5%
1.2% 1.3%
0.9%
1.0%
-2.7
%
0.2%
-0.4
%
-1.7
%
-1.4
%
-2.6
%
3.4%
3.4%
1.6%
0.4%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Char
lotte
Win
ston
-Sal
em
G'b
oro-
High
Poi
nt
Durh
am-C
H
Rale
igh
Burli
ngto
n
Ashe
ville
Gre
envi
lle
Wilm
ingt
on
Hick
ory
Faye
ttevi
lle
New
Ber
n
Jack
sonv
ille
Gol
dsbo
ro
Rock
y M
ount
MSA
City
of R
ocky
Mou
nt
NC C
ombi
ned
Met
ros
Stat
ewid
e
Change in Employment (as of December 2015)
12-Mth 6-Mth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2008
/1
2008
/7
2009
/1
2009
/7
2010
/1
2010
/7
2011
/1
2011
/7
2012
/1
2012
/7
2013
/1
2013
/7
2014
/1
2014
/7
2015
/1
2015
/7
Change in Employment Since January 2008(as of December 2015)
Rocky Mount MSA City of Rocky Mount NC Combined Metros Statewide
Change Since January 2008Rocky Mount MSA -5.6%City of Rocky Mount -9.4%NC Combined Metros 9.4%Statewide 5.6%
What’s the Outlook?
Business Activity
What do Small Businesses Think?
How About Consumers?
The Inequality Challenge
Challenges
Health Insurance/Medicaid
Infrastructure
Disruption
IEI FutureWork Disruption Index by County (February 2016)
