economic projections & overviewhealthcare/social assistance jobs: history and forecast page 23...

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency

Economic Projections & Overview

Department of Employment, Training

& Rehabilitation

Don Soderberg, Director

Dennis Perea, Deputy Director

Bill Anderson, Chief Economist

David Schmidt, Supervising Economist

Alex Capello, Economist

Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau and

presented to the Employment Security Council, Oct. 2016


Following 3 Months of Increases, Jobless

Rate Heads Down in August NV vs. the U.S. unemployment rate (SA)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

Page 1


The Jobless Rate for Vets has been Lower

than the Total Rate During the Recovery unemployment rate for Nevada Vets vs. total (12-month moving average)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Total Rate Veterans' Rate

Page 2


Nearly Six Years of Consistent Growth Pushes

Nevada Employment to a Record High

Page 3


Job Growth at Strongest Pace in Nearly a

Year job growth (SA; year-over-year)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

'14 '15 '16

pe

rcen

t cha

ng

e

job

s

Jobs Pct. Change

Page 4


Small Biz Jobs at All-Time High for IQ; Gains

Recorded in Each of Past 21 Quarters employment in establishments with less than 100 workers

450,000

470,000

490,000

510,000

530,000

550,000

570,000

590,000

610,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Page 5


Nevada Job Growth Exceeds Nation in 49

Straight Months; 2.9% vs. 1.7% in August job growth (year-over-year)

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

Page 6


Silver State Job Growth Stronger than in 40

Other States in IQ job growth rankings (# of states with slower private sector job growth than NV)

50

46

14

20 0

14

24

38

4948

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD

Page 7


Vast Majority of Employment Growth

Concentrated in Full-Time Positions FT vs. PT employment; (12-month moving average)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Full-Time Part-Time

Page 8


107,500 Full-Time Job Ads vs. 14,000 Part-Time Online Job Postings in Nevada (last twelve months, from Burning Glass/Labor

Insight)

Page 9


Nevada Wages at $875/Week in 2016:IQ; A

Record-High for the Qtr.; Up 1.2% Over 2015 Nevada average weekly wages

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Pe

rcen

tag

e C

ha

ng

e

Ave

rag

e W

ee

kly

Wa

ge

Percentage Change Average Weekly Wage

Page 10


New-Hire Earnings Approximately 2/3rds of

Overall Average…a Consistent Relationship new-hire monthly earnings vs. total average earnings

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Total Average Earnings New-Hire Earnings

Page 11


Earnings for Jobs Lost are Just Slightly

Higher than Those for New Hires average monthly earnings for jobs lost vs. new-hire earnings

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

New-Hire Earnings Earnings for Jobs Lost

Page 12


Job Gains>Losses in 21 Straight Quarters;

2015:IVQ Net Gain Strongest in a Decade private sector gross job gains vs. gross job losses (SA)

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

net jobs gross job gains gross job losses

Page 13


Opening Gains>Closing Losses Last 17

Quarters; Net Gain=3,400 in 2015:IVQ gross job gains vs. gross job losses in opening & closing establishments (SA)

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

net jobs gross job gains (openings) gross job losses (closings)

Page 14


Trade/Transportation, Construction,

Healthcare, and PBS Lead the Way YTD job growth by supersector (year-over-year)

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Mining/Logging

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government

Leisure/Hospitality

Professional/Business Services

Education/Health Services

Construction

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Page 15


At Nearly 68K, # of Employers at Record

High; Up vs. Yr.-Ago in 20 Straight Qtrs. number of Nevada employers

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

66,000

68,000

70,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Page 16


Personal Income Growth Hovering in the Mid-

Single Digits in the Silver State Nevada personal income

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Pe

rcen

tag

e C

ha

ng

ePe

rso

na

l In

com

e

Percentage Change Personal Income

Page 17


The Silver State’s GDP Growth Exceeded the

Nation’s in Eight of the Past Nine Quarters gross domestic product

$112,000

$114,000

$116,000

$118,000

$120,000

$122,000

$124,000

$126,000

$128,000

$130,000

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ

2013 2014 2015

Millions of 2009$

Year

-Ove

r-Ye

ar G

row

th

Nevada U.S. Nevada GDP

Page 18


Job Levels Exceed Pre-Recession Peak by

86K at Year-End 2019 Total Jobs: History and Forecast

Page 19


By the End of 2019, 43K Construction Jobs

Added Since Bottoming Out Construction Jobs: History and Forecast

Page 20


Growth to Strengthen for Manufacturing Jobs;

10,600 New Jobs through 2019 Manufacturing Jobs: History and Forecast

Page 21


Retail Trade Should Continue Adding About

1,600 Jobs Annually Retail Trade Jobs: History and Forecast

Page 22


Expectations are for an Additional 3,800

Healthcare Jobs per Year Healthcare/Social Assistance Jobs: History and Forecast

Page 23


AFS Jobs Have Reached Historical High;

More than 16K Additional Jobs Expected Accommodation/Food Services Jobs: History and Forecast

Page 24


NV’s Unemployment Rate Trending

Down...6.1% in ‘16; 5.4% in ‘17; 5.1% in ‘18 Unemployment Rate: History and Forecast

Page 25

economic projections & overviewhealthcare/social assistance jobs: history and forecast page 23...

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