Ecosystem Scale in Decision Making:Alaskan Arctic Lands

Dr. Wendy M. LoyaEcologist The Wilderness SocietyAnchorage, Alaska

Ecoregions & Management

Oil in Gas Leases in Alaskan Arctic

• Caribou fitted with GPS collars can be tracked by satellite throughout the year

• These data allow us to understand where caribou go, so we can find out why they go there

• We analyzed six years of data to identify areas supporting

calving & insect relief

Oil in Gas in Central Arctic of Alaska

• Caribou fitted with GPS collars can be tracked by satellite throughout the year

• These data allow us to understand where caribou go, so we can find out why they go there

• We analyzed six years of data to identify areas supporting

calving & insect reliefYokel et al. 2009

Wildlife Habitat in NPR-A

Some Decision Making Questions &Examples of Data and Methods

• How do species use the landscape and what habitats do they prefer?– e.g. Resource Selection Model that incorporates wildlife movement monitoring data

with habitat data at biologically relevant scale (e.g. patch and landscape)

• How will habitat selection be affected by development?– e.g. establish Disturbance Coefficients that incorporate wildlife responses to industrial

and other human activities

• How will development alter the landscape?– e.g. multiple plausible Scenarios for Future Development, including oil and gas, roads,

ports, etc.

• How will wild populations respond to development?– e.g. Population Viability Analysis incorporating habitat data, population data, carrying

capacity, disturbance coefficients, etc.

• How will communities respond? – e.g. Resource abundance & distribution, disturbance, economics, cultural traditions and

change.

Teshekpuk Lake,a naturally fragmented landscape

Yokel et al. 2010BLM & DU

Google

Teshekpuk Caribou Calving High Value Habitat (RSF) + Currently Leased Tracts

Scales/Data:•6 years of data•Five summer periods•41 female caribou•Habitat variables at Landscape & Patch scaleThis area provides:•nutritious grass-sedge meadows •later green-up /peak nutrition•slightly elevated, drier terrain

This size habitat is unique within NPRA

10% of calving habitat already leased Wilson, Prichard, Parrett, Person, Carroll, Smith, Rea & Yokel

(2012) Summer resource selection by the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd in Alaska. PloSOne 7:11

Development Model for NPR-A: Caribou Calving Habitat

• Conservative estimates based on Federal EIS (BLM/USGS)

• Uncertainty about how much habitat can be lost before population impacted

Data from Wilson et al. submitted

• Conservative estimates • Direct estimate of nest site loss, but

still difficult to determine population level impacts

Development Model for NPR-A: Passerine Nests

Data from Leibezeit et al 2009

Data from Wilson et al. submitted

Spatial

Temporal

Magnitude of Action

Historic DistributionLimited Data

Sub-PopulationRegional

Entire PopulationLarge footprintGlobal

IndividualSmall footprintLocal

Past/Current“Best Available Science”

Long Term MonitoringFuture ScenariosProjections

Minimal Maximum

Scales for Ecosystem Level Decision Making