education report - knight frank · the education sector in dubai is now at a tipping point, with...

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Dubai 2018 / 2019

Education Report

A F F O R DA B I L I T Y

R E G U L AT O RY C H A N G E S

E VO L U T I O N O F S U P P LY

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In a matter of a few decades, the emirate of Dubai has witnessed rapid transformation from a trading port, to a regional innovation hub underpinned by provision of quality infrastructure and world class educational institutions.

Through the efforts of Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), the quality of education in Dubai has significantly improved, now featuring many internationally recognised operators offering 16 different curricula to cater to the requirements of an increasingly multinational population.

In tandem with this transformation we have seen a broad range of developments which we will look to cover in this report. These topics include:

Shehzad Jamal Partner — Education Consultancy+971 56 4101 [email protected]

Introduction

Affordability is relative!To test our hypothesis - Affordability is relative to distance and time - Knight Frank carried out a survey with prominent education service providers to gauge their understanding of this concept.

Key components of this section:

• Parameters of an affordable school

• Testing distance or time as a measure under current and future market conditions

• Implications for education service providers and real estate developers

• Tuition fee, heat map and enrolment density map

• Affordability is relative! We go beyond simply measuring affordability (in terms of monetary value) to examining it within the context of distance / time. Education experts views have been considered which allowed us to frame the parameters of ‘affordable schooling’ and redefine traditional concepts of catchment areas in Dubai.

• Key regulatory changes In this section Clyde & Co set out a high level overview of some of the key regulatory developments which affect the private school sector in Dubai and which increase the compliance obligations on operators and new entrants to the market.

• Historical evolution of supply Supply of education institutions for five key curricula has been analysed and mapped since 1997.

I hope you will enjoy this paper and wish all stakeholders success in the years to come.

Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report.

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DUBAI EDUCATION MARKET REVIEW 2018 / 2019 DUBAI EDUCATION MARKET REVIEW 2018 / 2019

Affordability is relative!The education sector in Dubai is now at a tipping point, with aggressive marketing and tuition fee discounts symptomatic of an oversupply of schools. Pressure is expected to increase with a further 13 schools slated to open this academic year, bringing the total number of private schools in Dubai to 207.

With this drastic increase in choice, the market is now tipped in favour of consumers who are demanding quality education at lower price points. However, affordability has never been uniformly defined, nor do we know if meeting these demands is possible?

the underlying factor which defines affordability, is growing in importance and was tested in our survey. Our key findings are presented below:

Distance/time: The participants were requested to place the students in three brackets a) 0 to 5km b) 5 to 10km and c) 10km ++

• The number of students fell evenly between the three brackets with 34% students residing <5 km (Figure 1)

• When international branded schools, or schools with a unique offering were excluded, the number of students in bracket (a) increased to 46% (the assumption is that people will travel a longer distance for the unique attribute)

• When price sensitive schools were eliminated (tuition fees less than AED 33k for Year 13) the percentage of students residing in 0-5 km distance from the school increased to 53%

Catchment: 70% of participants agreed that they have witnessed a decline in their schools’ catchment diameter due to greater choice available. This is supported by the fact that the second most popular reason for students leaving schools is to move to a school closer to home, with relocation given as the primary reason. (Figure 2)

Lessons learnedThe survey contained other items as well, but we noticed that each participant was drawing from their own experiences which did not necessarily tally with the rest. However, what stands out from the survey is that the population of most relevance lies within a 5 km radius of the school, unless the school has a

FIGURE 1

The influence of distance or time on catchment area

34% 34%

33%

30%46%

23%

21%

53%

27%

Total sample

Excluding foreign branded schools and schools with USP’s

Removing price sensitive schools

Source: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle East

0-5 km 5-10 km 10 km ++

The education sector is now maturing, with 16 curricula available, price points that range from a few thousand dirhams to schools that have an approved fees of more than AED 100,000 annually and internationally-branded operators commonplace. Demand for international brands and schools to provide something out of the ordinary has driven the desire for better quality education, by a growing number of population, perceived to have large disposable income.

In the last 5 years the majority of new school openings have driven up average tuition fees. A recent report by HSBC, ranked UAE school fees as the second highest in the world, behind only Hong Kong. Furthermore, against a stagnated rate of growth in the economy, many schools have missed their student enrollment targets as supply has started to outstrip demand.

With more choice and increasing tuition fee levels, parents are inevitably seeking value for money, bringing the issue of affordable education under the spotlight.

In 2018, stakeholders reacted to market conditions in the following manner:

• Private education service providers invested in costly marketing campaigns including outdoor advertising, radio and print, and introduced disruptive pricing by reducing tuition fees, introducing discounts, and implementing various scholarship schemes.

• The Dubai Government issued a freeze on both private school fees and rents (for those schools that rent land from its Knowledge Fund) for academic year 2018/19.

These strategies were aimed at alleviating worries of operators and parents alike, by reducing the burden of both fees and rents. These actions can be termed as stop gap measures. They don’t tackle the underlying issue of how

to develop schools that are affordable in the long-term.

Affordability is relative!Arriving at a universally accepted tuition fee for the private sector that would be considered affordable by all, is an impossible task. This is because affordability is not one-dimensional, which is why Knight Frank went beyond simply measuring affordability in terms of monetary value, to rather examining it within the context of distance, or time i.e 5 km or 15 minutes travel.

In Q2 2018, we conducted a survey with education service providers; representing 58 large, small, branded and local private schools in Dubai, using the UK curriculum to enable comparisons. The aim was two-fold:

1. To define affordable schools (price points and facilities)

2. To identify whether distance and/ or time is a relevant measure for affordability

It is important to note, the overarching condition to this survey was that responses must take into account that the quality of education is to be maintained.

Defining affordable schools (Key findings)Participants were unanimous in their belief that providing affordable education is challenging, but confirmed it should be accessible to communities and relative to an individual’s income.

Tuition fees:

• Year 1: 80% mentioned tuition fees should be less than AED 33k, and 56% indicated that tuition fee should be in the range of AED 18k to 28k

• Year 7: 77% mentioned tuition fees should be less than AED 41k, and 44% indicated that tuition fee should be in the range of AED 33k to 46k

• Year 13: 70% of participants believed tuition fees should be equal or less than AED 60k

School parameters:

• Number of students: 2,000 to 3,000, with class sizes ranging from 25 to 30

• Plot size: many plot sizes were quoted but 30,000 sq m was quoted the most

• BUA to plot ratio: optimally 0.8 sq m to 1.0 sq m

Facilities:

• Essential: Cafeteria, multi-purpose hall and outdoor swimming pool were identified as being essential for an affordable school

• Can be excluded: auditoriums, tennis courts and indoor swimming pools

Salaries:

• Teacher salaries: the range between the highest and lowest basic salary was in excess of AED 7,000

• Headmaster salary: salary ranges were fairly consistent

Testing distance or time as a measure under current and future market conditionsWith an increasing number of different types of schools available, parents have more choice and are seeking greater value for money. Under this current scenario, we believe that our hypothesis on distance and catchment area, being

unique USP. The following two pages include Dubai’s education sector maps, presenting the current situation of tuition fee price points and student density across Dubai.

We expect catchment areas to continue reducing, driven by the increase in the number of schools and choices available. It will be what makes the school most attractive, with the exception of schools that offer certain USPs, which can still command a wider radius because they are serving a particular target market. However, as competition continues to increase, even these schools will most likely rely more on catchment area than the USP they are offering.

Education service providers and real estate developers both have lessons to draw from this:

• Education service providers: Target market is the one on their doorstep. Therefore, new schools and existing schools considering repositioning should invest in undertaking a catchment area analysis to understand population size, income profile, nationality mix, competition and above all, requirement of residents, as it will help the school create a value proposition, which in turn will ensure long-term profitability.

• Real estate developers: Master planned communities during their planning phase need to consider the target market for their development. This will help determine the type and size of school and attract an appropriate education service provider. Empirical evidence suggests that planning for the right school positively affects other real estate offerings by way of improved occupancy and yields.

FIGURE 2

Has your school catchment decreased over time?


YesNoCan’t say

70%20%10%

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Using data published by KHDA, Knight Frank’s GIS Team has constructed a heat map to show the spread of schools in Dubai by seven broad fee brackets (Figure 3) ranging from fees which fall below AED 23,000 per annum (dark blue) to fees which are above AED 63,000 per annum (dark red).

Looking at the heat map there are a few areas where the concentration of the highest fee schools is acceptable given the income profiles of these communities. This is particularly the case for the vast majority of these schools which are in the top 20% of the market (by fees) where occupancy is around 77% (if schools that commenced operations in academic year 2017/18 are removed, then the occupancy level increases to 84%). As noted earlier in this report, this number is slightly distorted by the fact that some of these schools have USPs which will attract demand from a wider catchment area, meaning the impact of the 5 km is not as relevant under current circumstances.

Additionally, there are a large number of schools which are priced towards the higher fee brackets of AED 52,001 and above and are located in what are known to be middle income communities. As a result of this mispricing, we have seen that occupancy in the AED 52,000 to AED 83,000 price point stands at around 69% compared to 84% in price points below this level. As the number of schools in Dubai continue to grow, pressure may increase on these schools that are located in middle income communities.

FIGURE 3

Academic year 2016/2017

Esri, HERE, Garmin, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community

Av. Year 6/7 Fees Per Annum (AED)

<23,00023,001 - 30,00030,001 - 36,00036,001 - 43,000

43,001 - 52,00052,001 - 63,000>63,000

ACADEMIC CITY

PALM JUMEIRAH

DUBAI MARINA

JUMEIRAH LAKES TOWERS

JUMEIRAH ISLANDS

JEBEL ALI

JEBEL ALI VILLAGE

DUBAI SPORTS CITY

ARABIAN RANCHES

DUBAI INVESTMENT PARK

JUMEIRAH VILLAGE CIRCLE

DUBAI MEDIA CITY

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

AL BARSHA

BARSHA HEIGHTS

EMIRATES LIVING

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY

DOWNTOWN

DEIRA ISLANDS

AL KARAMA

BUR DUBAI

NAD AL SHEBA

WADI AL SAFA

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DUBAI SILICON OASISINTERNATIONAL CITY

AL QUOZ

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

AL QUSAIS

AL TWAR

AL NAHDA

MUHAISNAH

RASHIDIYA

AL WARQA

DEIRA

AL MAMZAR

THE WORLD ISLANDS


Average tuition fee heat map

< 23,000

23,001-30,000

30,001-36,000

36,001-43,000

43,001-52,000

52,001-63,000

>63,000

Tuition Fee (average year 6 & 7), in AED

DUBAI EDUCATION MARKET REVIEW 2018 / 2019

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Esri, HERE, Garmin, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community

Number of Students< 1,0001,001 to 2,0002,001 to 3,000

3,001 to 4,000> 4,000

ACADEMIC CITY

THE WORLD ISLANDS

PALM JUMEIRAH

DUBAI MARINA


JUMEIRAH ISLANDS

JEBEL ALI

JEBEL ALI VILLAGE

DUBAI SPORTS CITY

ARABIAN RANCHES

DUBAI INVESTMENT PARK


DUBAI MEDIA CITY

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

AL BARSHA

BARSHA HEIGHTS

EMIRATES LIVING

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY

DOWNTOWN

DEIRA ISLANDS

AL KARAMA

BUR DUBAI

NAD AL SHEBA

WADI AL SAFA

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DUBAI SILICON OASISINTERNATIONAL CITY

AL QUOZ

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

AL QUSAIS

AL TWAR

AL NAHDA

MUHAISNAH

RASHIDIYA

AL WARQA

DEIRA

AL MAMZAR

Figure 4 shows the density of number of students per school in Dubai. We have used five broad ranges with the dark blue circles showing schools which have less than 1,000 students and the dark red circles reflecting schools which have over 4,000 students.

First, we note that almost 90% of schools in Dubai have total student numbers below 3,000 and 61% have total student numbers below 1,500 students. There is also a clear trend in schools which fall in the fee brackets of AED 36,000 and below, these schools are likely to have a higher total student population. We can see this is the case in the majority of schools in areas such as Bur Dubai, Deira and International City. Whereas schools where fees are in the higher brackets (over AED 63,000) tend to have a enrolments of 1,000 students or fewer. Furthermore, in this higher fee bracket where the school is not a foreign branded school we see this number fall even further.

We also note that occupancy on average, is significantly higher in schools where the student capacity is higher. Schools which have a capacity of up to 1,500 students have recorded occupancy at 76%. Schools having a total student population higher than this, recorded occupancy of over 92%.

The data clearly shows that affordability is relative to the community. Schools with fee points matching the community income profile are maintaining high enrolment and occupancy, and these schools are likely to record a desirable level of profitability.


FIGURE 4

Academic year 2016/2017

Student enrolment density

< 1,000

1,001-2,000

2,001-3,000

3,001-4,000

> 4,000

Number of students


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Key regulatory changes impacting the education sector

Delivering an affordable school comes with its own challenges. The K-12 sector in the UAE is heavily regulated and this affects both the operation of schools and the establishment of new schools. The regulations apply regardless of the school fees to be charged, and there is an increasing cost associated with regulatory compliance that an affordable school operator will need to take into account. This section highlights some of the key regulatory developments that are relevant to the private K-12 sector.

International Branded Schools in DubaiWhere an operator or investor is looking to establish a school in Dubai that will operate under an existing international school brand, the following restrictions and requirements apply.

The existing international school needs to be involved in the licensing process, regardless of whether they will have ownership in the Dubai school. The governing body of the school will also need to provide a commitment to KHDA (by way of a board resolution) that it will be responsible for a list of specific education matters, that termination and closure of the Dubai school is subject to KHDA approval, and that the school will be responsible for settling financial disputes in relation to parents and staff on termination.

Understandably this can cause some concerns with school governors, and we have assisted a large number of school governing boards to understand the implications of this resolution and its impact on the school and the governors.

The school will want to ensure they have the right to influence the Dubai school or make it comply with KHDA requirements. We are seeing an increasing trend of international schools taking a minority

stake in the Dubai school to mitigate any perceived risk flowing from the board resolution, and we expect this to continue.

The KHDA also has restrictions on the closing of schools, or the termination of brand licence agreements, as they do not want the international school to walk away, or the Dubai school to close, without their approval. The main purpose of this is the welfare and safety of the students.

Teacher Licensing and Good Conduct CertificatesIn the first quarter of 2018, the UAE Government launched the Teacher Licensing System (TLS), with the aim of ensuring both a high quality and ‘uniform’ standard of teaching staff within the region, notwithstanding the fact that teachers’ qualifications in the UAE are estimated to be from around 180 countries across the world.

The TLS is being rolled out in phases but will become mandatory for every teacher in the UAE in 2021. In order to obtain their Licence (issued by the Ministry of Education), teachers will have to sit exams and undertake professional development training across four ‘standards’ – (i) Professional and Ethical

“Operators and Investors need to understand the regulatory framework in Dubai to ensure compliance. This affects not just the operations of the school, but also the structures available to establish the school in the first place.”

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This section presents a summary analysis of 5 key curricula along with the locations of schools in 1997, 2007 and 2017. The curricula analysed are:

• UK Curriculum Schools

• Indian Curriculum Schools

• American Curriculum Schools

• IB Curriculum Schools

• Ministry of Education Curriculum Schools

Historical evolution of supply


Conduct, (ii) Professional Knowledge, (iii) Professional Practice and (iv) Professional Growth. Teachers with qualifications from certain jurisdictions (namely UK, Ireland, US, New Zealand, Canada and Australia) will be exempt from (ii), (iii) and (iv), however will need to participate in the training and take the exam in Professional and Ethical Conduct.

Schools themselves will have to meet the costs of the training and exams for their teachers although the fees have not yet been announced.

In order to obtain the license, it was recently announced that teachers will also be required to obtain a good conduct certificate from the police department of the country where they last taught. This requirement also applies to those currently teaching in the UAE. As the TLS is in its nascent phase, there has been limited information released in relation to the requirements. For example, the consequences if certain jurisdictions are unable to provide the required certification are unclear. We expect these aspects to be clarified soon.

School Fee FreezeIn June 2018, the Dubai Executive Council announced that private schools in Dubai would not be permitted to raise their school fees for the academic year 2018/2019. The announcement came at a late stage in the academic calendar after issuance of KHDA approvals to schools in relation to fee increases.

aim to ensure safe transportation for students. The Dubai Roads and Traffic Authority has, for example, issued the Guiding Manual of School Transport in the Emirate of Dubai which sets out the expected standards and obligations of transport operators and schools.

It is anticipated that more legislation that is prescriptive will be enacted in the near future. In the meantime, schools must ensure that they undertake sufficient due diligence when appointing a third party transport provider.

Data ProtectionData protection remains a hot topic globally, and the UAE is no exception. Although privacy laws are being developed, those working and living in the UAE are becoming more aware of the risks of not protecting their own data. It is only a matter of time until substantive regulations are enacted and now is the time to start implementing best practice.

In particular, schools should be mindful of the way in which they collect information about pupils, employees, parents, governors and others. It may be that consent requirements will be introduced in line with data protection laws globally, whereby those giving their information must expressly give consent for the information to be used for a particular purpose. Schools may also need to consider whether staff will need further training on data protection matters, and whether information about pupils can be given readily, even to their parents.

“Operators and Investors need to understand the regulatory framework in Dubai to ensure compliance. This affects not just the operations of the school, but also the structures available to establish the school in the first place.”

While the ruling was welcomed by parents, it has caused practical challenges for schools who had already forecasted and/or implemented their 2018/2019 financial budgets on the basis of a fee increase. As a general rule of thumb, the better a school performs in the annual KHDA inspection, the more likely they are to be awarded the right to increase their fees. Additionally, school fees in Dubai have, historically, risen year on year.

It is not yet known whether the school fee freeze will be extended to the next academic year, or whether it will be replicated to other Emirates. Many schools have escalating rent charges in their operating leases with landlords, and now is the time for schools and landlords to look at those arrangements to ensure the sustainability of the school during the coming period.

School TransportEducation institutions naturally have extensive obligations in relation to the health and safety of their students. Safety obligations on school transport have become an increasingly topical issue following the occurrence of a number of tragic events.

Notwithstanding the fact that they may use an external provider, schools themselves remain responsible for the health and safety of their pupils and employees on school transport. Throughout the course of 2018, the UAE has launched a number of initiatives that

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UK Curriculum Schools Penetration of UK Schools in Dubai

FIGURE 5

Academic year 2016/2017 snapshotFIGURE 6

Number of students and schools by DSIB curriculum rating

FIGURE 7

Number of students & schools by year 6 & 7 fee brackets, AED

Number of schools (branches excluded)

Number of students

New schools established since 2007

Number of students attending schools with rating good and above

Number of schools with improved DSIB rating

Weighted average fee in AED*

SchoolsStudents

74

93,771

34

67,462

3

37,071

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

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30

25

20

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10

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20,000

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16

14

12

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6

4

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FIGURE 8

Number of students vs total

TotalUK

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

30%CONTRIBUTION

34%

20

09

/10

20

10/1

1

20

11/1

2

20

12/1

3

20

13/1

4

20

14/1

5

20

15/1

6

20

16/1

7

CAGR: 5.9%

CAGR: 7.4%

FIGURE 9

1997

FIGURE 11

2017

Source: Knight Frank Middle East

FIGURE 10

2007

Source: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle EastSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle East Students Number of schools (RHS)

ACADEMIC CITY

THE WORLD ISLANDS

PALM JUMEIRAH

DUBAI MARINA


JUMEIRAH ISLANDS

JEBEL ALI

JEBEL ALI VILLAGE

DUBAI SPORTS CITY

ARABIAN RANCHES

DUBAI INVESTMENT

PARK


DUBAI MEDIA CITY

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

AL BARSHA

BARSHA HEIGHTS

EMIRATES LIVING BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY

DOWNTOWN

DEIRA ISLANDS

AL KARAMA

BUR DUBAI

NAD AL SHEBA

WADI AL SAFA

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DUBAI SILICON OASIS

INTERNATIONAL CITY

AL QUOZ

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

AL QUSAIS

AL TWAR

AL NAHDA

MUHAISNAH

RASHIDIYA

AL WARQA

DEIRA

AL MAMZAR

MIRDIF

THE WORLD ISLANDS


AL QUOZ

BARSHA HEIGHTS

JUMEIRAH LAKES

TOWERSAL BARSHA

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

DEIRA ISLANDS

DEIRAAL KARAMA

DUBAI FESTIVAL

CITYNAD AL SHEBA

AL MAMZAR

AL QUSAIS

MUHAISNAHRASHIDIYA

MIRDIF

AL WARQA

INTERNATIONAL CITYDUBAI SILICON

OASIS

ACADEMIC CITY

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

ARABIAN RANCHES

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DOWNTOWN

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI MARINA

PALM JUMEIRAH

THE WORLD ISLANDS


AL QUOZ

BARSHA HEIGHTS

JUMEIRAH LAKES

TOWERSAL BARSHA

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

DEIRA ISLANDS

DEIRAAL KARAMA

DUBAI FESTIVAL

CITYNAD AL SHEBA

AL MAMZAR

AL QUSAIS

MUHAISNAHRASHIDIYA

MIRDIF

AL WARQA


OASIS

ACADEMIC CITY

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

ARABIAN RANCHES

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DOWNTOWN

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI MARINA

PALM JUMEIRAH

UK curriculum schools are the most prominent in Dubai, in terms of the number of students (34%) and number of schools (39%). What makes the UK curriculum appealing to the Dubai market?

• Global standardised curriculum and examination system that eases transferability between schools and countries – a factor that is appealing to the expatriate community.

• It caters to almost the entire socio-economic spectrum of society, with tuition fees ranging from a few thousand Dirhams annually to schools in excess of AED 90,000 per annum.

• UK branded schools aim to provide students similar educational experiences in terms of quality.

In academic year 2018/19, six schools will be introduced to the system, increasing the number of schools to 85.

Source: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle EastSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle East

*Based on median fee range for year 6 & 7


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American Curriculum SchoolsFIGURE 13


FIGURE 15

Number of students vs totalFIGURE 14


25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

20

09

/10

20

10/1

1

20

11/1

2

20

12/1

3

20

13/1

4

20

14/1

5

20

15/1

6

20

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CAGR: 5.9%

CAGR: 3.0%

0-

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01-

20

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0

20

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1-3

0,0

00

30

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1-4

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80

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12

10

8

6

4

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0


Number of students



Number of schools with improved DSIB rating


34

48,257

8

23,476

3

29,495

22%CONTRIBUTION

18%

FIGURE 12


1997

FIGURE 18

2017


FIGURE 17

2007

ACADEMIC CITY

THE WORLD ISLANDS

PALM JUMEIRAH

DUBAI MARINA


JUMEIRAH ISLANDS

JEBEL ALI

JEBEL ALI VILLAGE

DUBAI SPORTS CITY

ARABIAN RANCHES

DUBAI INVESTMENT

PARK


DUBAI MEDIA CITY

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

AL BARSHA

BARSHA HEIGHTS


RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY

DOWNTOWN

DEIRA ISLANDS

AL KARAMA

BUR DUBAI

NAD AL SHEBA

WADI AL SAFA

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DUBAI SILICON OASIS

INTERNATIONAL CITY

AL QUOZ

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

AL QUSAIS

AL TWAR

AL NAHDA

MUHAISNAH

RASHIDIYA

AL WARQA

DEIRA

AL MAMZAR

MIRDIF

THE WORLD ISLANDS


AL QUOZ

BARSHA HEIGHTS

JUMEIRAH LAKES

TOWERSAL BARSHA

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

DEIRA ISLANDS

DEIRAAL KARAMA

DUBAI FESTIVAL

CITYNAD AL SHEBA

AL MAMZAR

AL QUSAIS

MUHAISNAHRASHIDIYA

MIRDIF

AL WARQA


OASIS

ACADEMIC CITY

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

ARABIAN RANCHES

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DOWNTOWN

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI MARINA

PALM JUMEIRAH

THE WORLD ISLANDS


AL QUOZ

BARSHA HEIGHTS

JUMEIRAH LAKES

TOWERSAL BARSHA

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

DEIRA ISLANDS

DEIRAAL KARAMA

DUBAI FESTIVAL

CITYNAD AL SHEBA

AL MAMZAR

AL QUSAIS

MUHAISNAHRASHIDIYA

MIRDIF

AL WARQA


OASIS

ACADEMIC CITY

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

ARABIAN RANCHES

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DOWNTOWN

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI MARINA

PALM JUMEIRAH

SchoolsStudents TotalAmericanSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle EastSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle East


The American curriculum schools have a market share of almost 18% for both the number of students and schools. In the last three academic years, student numbers were almost constant, which has resulted in a gradual decline in market share from 22% in academic year 2009/10 to 18% in 2016/17.

The majority of the schools have received a DSIB rating of “acceptable” and “good” with only one school maintaining an “outstanding” rating.

In academic year 2018/19, two schools will be introduced to the system, increasing the number of schools to 36.

Penetration of American Schools in Dubai



18 19

FIGURE 22

Number of students vs total

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

20

09

/10

20

10/1

1

20

11/1

2

20

12/1

3

20

13/1

4

20

14/1

5

20

15/1

6

20

16/1

7

No

e

valu

ati

on

Insp

ec

tio

n

up

co

min

g

We

ak

Ac

ce

pta

ble

Go

od

Ve

ry g

oo

d

Ou

tsta

nd

ing

30%CONTRIBUTION

29%

CAGR: 5.9%

CAGR: 5.5%

10,0

01-

20

,00

0

20

,00

1-3

0,0

00

30

,00

1-4

0,0

00

40

,00

1-5

0,0

00

50

,00

1-6

0,0

00

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

FIGURE 19

Academic year 2016/2017 snapshot


Number of students



Number of schools with improved DSIB rating 2016 vs 2017


33

79,579

16

41,150

nil

10,766

FIGURE 20


FIGURE 21


0-

10,0

00

FIGURE 23

1997

FIGURE 25

2017


FIGURE 24

2007

ACADEMIC CITY

THE WORLD ISLANDS

PALM JUMEIRAH

DUBAI MARINA


JUMEIRAH ISLANDS

JEBEL ALI

JEBEL ALI VILLAGE

DUBAI SPORTS CITY

ARABIAN RANCHES

DUBAI INVESTMENT

PARK


DUBAI MEDIA CITY

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

AL BARSHA

BARSHA HEIGHTS


RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY

DOWNTOWN

DEIRA ISLANDS

AL KARAMA

BUR DUBAI

NAD AL SHEBA

WADI AL SAFA

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DUBAI SILICON OASIS

INTERNATIONAL CITY

AL QUOZ

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

AL QUSAIS

AL TWAR

AL NAHDA

MUHAISNAH

RASHIDIYA

AL WARQA

DEIRA

AL MAMZAR

MIRDIF

THE WORLD ISLANDS


AL QUOZ

BARSHA HEIGHTS

JUMEIRAH LAKES

TOWERSAL BARSHA

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

DEIRA ISLANDS

DEIRAAL KARAMA

DUBAI FESTIVAL

CITYNAD AL SHEBA

AL MAMZAR

AL QUSAIS

MUHAISNAHRASHIDIYA

MIRDIF

AL WARQA


OASIS

ACADEMIC CITY

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

ARABIAN RANCHES

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DOWNTOWN

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI MARINA

PALM JUMEIRAH

THE WORLD ISLANDS


AL QUOZ

BARSHA HEIGHTS

JUMEIRAH LAKES

TOWERSAL BARSHA

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

DEIRA ISLANDS

DEIRAAL KARAMA

DUBAI FESTIVAL

CITYNAD AL SHEBA

AL MAMZAR

AL QUSAIS

MUHAISNAHRASHIDIYA

MIRDIF

AL WARQA


OASIS

ACADEMIC CITY

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

ARABIAN RANCHES

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DOWNTOWN

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI MARINA

PALM JUMEIRAH

SchoolsStudents TotalIndianSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle EastSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle East


Indian curriculum schools have maintained 30% of the student population. In terms of the number of students per school, Indian schools are usually twice the size of American or UK curriculum schools. Indian curriculum schools not only serve the Indian community, but also cater to the population of the subcontinent.

Factors that draw parents are:

• Standardised curriculum and examination system

• Competitive tuition fees - making it appealing to a wider population base

• High focus on core subjects

Indian branded schools aim to provide students similar education experiences in terms of quality. In the academic year 2018/19, two schools are to be introduced to the system, which will increase the number of schools to 36.

Indian Curriculum Schools Penetration of Indian Schools in Dubai



20 21

FIGURE 26



10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

40

,00

1-5

0,0

00

50

,00

1-6

0,0

00

60

,00

1-70

,00

0

70,0

01-

80

,00

0

80

,00

1-9

0,0

00

90

,00

1-10

0,0

00

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

5

4

3

2

1

0

8

6

4

2

0

Inspection upcoming

Good OutstandingVery good

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

20

09

/10

20

10/1

1

20

11/1

2

20

12/1

3

20

13/1

4

20

14/1

5

20

15/1

6

20

16/1

7

2%CONTRIBUTION

6%

CAGR: 5.9%

CAGR: 21.9%

CONTRIBUTION


Number of students

Number of new schools in last 5 years




11

13,232

9

12,624

2

65,517

FIGURE 29



FIGURE 30

2007

FIGURE 31

2017


THE WORLD ISLANDS

PALM JUMEIRAH

DUBAI MARINA


JUMEIRAH ISLANDS

JEBEL ALI

JEBEL ALI VILLAGE

DUBAI SPORTS CITY

ARABIAN RANCHES

DUBAI INVESTMENT

PARK


DUBAI MEDIA CITY

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

AL BARSHA

BARSHA HEIGHTS


RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY

DOWNTOWN

DEIRA ISLANDS

AL KARAMA

BUR DUBAI

NAD AL SHEBA

WADI AL SAFA

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS DUBAI SILICON

OASIS

INTERNATIONAL CITY

AL QUOZ

MUSHRIF

AL QUSAIS

AL TWAR

AL NAHDA

MUHAISNAH

RASHIDIYA

AL WARQA

DEIRA

AL MAMZAR

MIRDIF

THE WORLD ISLANDS

PALM JUMEIRAH

DUBAI MARINA


JUMEIRAH ISLANDS

JEBEL ALI

JEBEL ALI VILLAGE

DUBAI SPORTS CITY

ARABIAN RANCHES

DUBAI INVESTMENT

PARK


DUBAI MEDIA CITY

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

AL BARSHA

BARSHA HEIGHTS


RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY

DOWNTOWN

DEIRA ISLANDS

AL KARAMA

BUR DUBAI

NAD AL SHEBA

WADI AL SAFA

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS DUBAI SILICON

OASIS

INTERNATIONAL CITY

AL QUOZ

MUSHRIF

AL QUSAIS

AL TWAR

AL NAHDA

MUHAISNAH

RASHIDIYA

AL WARQA

DEIRA

AL MAMZAR

MIRDIF


SchoolsStudents TotalIBSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle EastSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle East

The International Baccalaureate is the fastest growing curricula within Dubai’s education space. It has witnessed a growth rate of 21.9% CAGR since academic year 2009/10, which led to market share increasing from 2% in academic year 2009/10, to 6% by 2016/2017.

Factors that draw parents to the system are:

• Standardised examination system that is internationally recognised

• It is considered as a system that will instil attributes of independent learning in children

• Certain US colleges provide credits to students who have sat through their IB examinations

International Baccalaureate Curriculum Schools Penetration of International Baccalaureate Schools in Dubai



22 23

FIGURE 33


12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

8

6

4

2

0

Acceptable

0-1

0,0

00

10,0

01-

20

,00

0

20

,00

1-3

0,0

00

Good

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

20

09

/10

9%

CONTRIBUTION

5%

20

10/1

1

20

11/1

2

20

12/1

3

20

13/1

4

20

14/1

5

20

15/1

6

20

16/1

7

CAGR: 5.9%

CAGR: -2.6%

FIGURE 32

Academic year 2016/2017 snapshot


Number of students

Number of new schools in last 5 years




11

13,678

Nil

2,949

1.00

6,518

FIGURE 35


Number of students and schools by Year 6 & 7 fee brackets

FIGURE 36

1997

FIGURE 38

2017


FIGURE 37

2007

ACADEMIC CITY

THE WORLD ISLANDS

PALM JUMEIRAH

DUBAI MARINA


JUMEIRAH ISLANDS

JEBEL ALI

JEBEL ALI VILLAGE

DUBAI SPORTS CITY

ARABIAN RANCHES

DUBAI INVESTMENT

PARK


DUBAI MEDIA CITY

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

AL BARSHA

BARSHA HEIGHTS


RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY

DOWNTOWN

DEIRA ISLANDS

AL KARAMA

BUR DUBAI

NAD AL SHEBA

WADI AL SAFA

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DUBAI SILICON OASIS

INTERNATIONAL CITY

AL QUOZ

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

AL QUSAIS

AL TWAR

AL NAHDA

MUHAISNAH

RASHIDIYA

AL WARQA

DEIRA

AL MAMZAR

THE WORLD ISLANDS


AL QUOZ

BARSHA HEIGHTS

JUMEIRAH LAKES

TOWERSAL BARSHA

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

DEIRA ISLANDS

DEIRAAL KARAMA

DUBAI FESTIVAL

CITYNAD AL SHEBA

AL MAMZAR

AL QUSAIS

MUHAISNAHRASHIDIYA

MIRDIF

AL WARQA


OASIS

ACADEMIC CITY

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

ARABIAN RANCHES

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DOWNTOWN

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI MARINA

PALM JUMEIRAH

THE WORLD ISLANDS


AL QUOZ

BARSHA HEIGHTS

JUMEIRAH LAKES

TOWERSAL BARSHA

AL SUFOUH JUMEIRAH

DEIRA ISLANDS

DEIRAAL KARAMA

DUBAI FESTIVAL

CITYNAD AL SHEBA

AL MAMZAR

AL QUSAIS

MUHAISNAHRASHIDIYA

MIRDIF

AL WARQA


OASIS

ACADEMIC CITY

MUSHRIF

AL KHAWANEEJ

ARABIAN RANCHES

UMM NAHADAL YALAYIS

DOWNTOWN

BUSINESS BAY

RAS AL KHOR

DUBAI MARINA

PALM JUMEIRAH


SchoolsStudents TotalPrivate MoESource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle EastSource: KHDA, Knight Frank Middle East

Designed to cater for UAE nationals’ requirements, the number of private Ministry of Education curriculum schools has declined from 15 in 2009/2010 to 11 in 2016/17, resulting in the number of students also declining, albeit marginally.

As time progresses, these schools are faced with increased competition as a result of improving standards in public sector schools and also options available to parents to enrol their children in schools offering western curricula.

Ministry of Education Curriculum Schools Penetration of Ministry of Education Schools in Dubai



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FIGURE 39

Number of private schools

FIGURE 40

Student population


90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

TOTAL

2009/2010

148 148 148 153 158 169 173 185 194 207

2010/2011

2011/2012

2012/2013

2014/2015

2015/2016

2013/2014

2016/2017

2017/2018

2018/2019

UK

American

Indian

Others

MoE

IB


120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

UK

Indian

American

Others

MoE

IB

2009/2010

2010/2011

2011/2012

2012/2013

2014/2015

2015/2016

2013/2014

2016/2017

2017/2018

TOTAL 182,818 193,323 207,118 225,099 243,715 255,235 265,299 273,599 281,432

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https://www.knightfrank.ae/research/dubai-offices-review-q1-2018-5531.aspx

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