México2018

EconomicContext │ 2018

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lars

Mexico GDP 1993-2018 (Billions U.S. dollars)

#2Latin America

#13Income per Capita in

Latin America & Caribbean

#15World Wide (1,100B)

According to International Monetary FundAccording to International Monetary Fund

Mexico ranking according to the International Monetary Fund

Exchange rate (2018) 18.80-19.20 18.80-19.20 18.80-20.60

Exchange rate (2019) 18.50-19.00 18.50-19.00 19.00-21.10

GDP growth (2018) 1.8-2.3% 1.8-2.3% 1.8-2.3%

GDP growth (2019) 2.0-2.5% 2.0-2.5% -0.1–2.5%

ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS FOR CANDIDATES 2018-2019

4.09%Inflation

2.28%GDP

Growth

18.86Exchange

Rate

ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS 2018 (BANK OF MEXICO)

Source: OECD, Bank of Mexico and brokerage firm Finamex

Source: Bank of Mexico, 2018

General Elections │ 2018

Mexicans will go to the polls to elect:– 1 new president.– 128 federal senators– 500 federal deputies.– 9 state governors.

as well as mayors and state congressional representatives.

Presidential CandidateJOSÉ ANTONIO MEADE KURIBEÑA

PUBLIC SECTOR EXPERIENCEEnergy Secretary (PAN), Treasury Secretary (PAN), Foreign Secretary

(PRI), Social Secretary (PRI), Treasury Secretary (PRI)

ACCOMPLISMENTS• Main negotiator of Treasury to obtain approval of the Congress for the Fiscal

Reform in the second PAN administration.• As Social Secretary he led the National Inclusion Strategy and offer results to lift

more tan 2 million Mexicans out of poverty.• As Treasury Secretary he faced an adverse international economic evironment

and devised a strategy to reduce the country’s debt, despite the fall in oil prices.

NEGATIVES• Increase on Gas Prices

Presidential CandidateRICARDO ANAYA CORTÉS

PUBLIC SECTOR EXPERIENCEMember and former president of the PAN, Federal Deputy in the LXII Legislature ofthe Congress of the Union in Mexico, President of the Chamber of Deputies inMexico and leader of the Parliamentary Group (PAN), Representative (PAN) inCongress of the Union of Mexico.

ACCOMPLISMENTS AS DEPUTY• Supported and defended the approval of 14 constitutional reforms thrown by the

Pact for Mexico.• Participated in 35 legislative initiatives of his parlamentary group. (25 discarted,

10 approved).• Of those 35 proposals, most of wich are public administrative, fiscal and the

initiative to bankarize the support of social programs, 21 subscribed.• Reform to Article 2-A and adition to Article 2-B to the Law on Value Added Tax,

wich was approved on 2013 and fixed 20% on sweetened drinks.• Reform to Article 2 of the Constitution, wich states that indigenous women shall

enjoy and exercise their right to vote and be voted on equal terms with men.

NEGATIVESHas competed for a popular election charge and lost.

Presidential CandidateÁNDRES MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR

PUBLIC SECTOR EXPERIENCEPresident of PRI in Tabasco (1983), President of PRD in Tabasco (1989), President of PRDnational (1996-1999), Head of Government of Mexico City (2000-2005), President of theNational Regeneration Movement (2015-2017).

ACCOMPLISMENTS AS HEAD OF GOVERMENT OF MEXICO CITY• GPD experience a significal growth.

• From 1.17 B of Pesos to 1.61 B of Pesos. Source: National System of Information & Integration of Markets.

• Poverty decreassed.• From 5.8% to 5.4% in 4 years. Source: National Council for the Evaluation of Social

Development Policy.

• Inhabitants of the capital began to be beneficiaries of social programs such as aid forthe elderly and single mothers, among others.

NEGATIVES OF HIS ADMINISTRATION• Public debt increased.

• From $32 thousand 788 million pesos to $41 thousand 439 million pesos.Source: Public Finances Studies Center

VIEWS ON MEXICOSTAX, ENERGY & POLÍTICAL REFORM

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ISSUESAIRPORTS

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ISSUESECONOMY

Salary recovery.Free Zone Regime in northern

states.IVA (VAT) 16% to 8% in borders

areas.No new taxes or increases.

Public spending as a tool for development.

Create Special Economic Zones.Pay equity.

Continue the strategy of the previous government with the

reforms.

Rethink spending policies.Universal Basic Income.Reform pension system.

Special border tax regime

ISSUESNAFTA

NAFTA negotiations in the hands of thenext government.Keep the same negotiating team forNAFTA negotiations..

Trade, NAFTA – U.S. Mexico relations In favor of NAFTA

Pro Continuity

In favor of NAFTA.Favors a joint strategy between

Mexico and Canada.Relations based on respect.

Dialogue with the United States can be of great benefit to both nations

ISSUESBORDERS

Improve development and generatejobs in states with the most migrationtowards the US.Promote a new immigration policywith high standards of integrity,transparency and efficiency.

Cooperation, promotion and protection with modern and agile

border crossings

We cannot leave a state like Baja California to it fate in the face of the

reality of migration. It will receive all the support so that

we can jointly address the issue.

ISSUESREAL STATE

Financing for housing it must be consideredas growth instrument national, being driventhrough instruments of stock markets andmarket mortgages; creation of fundsindividual guarantee especially for the sectorinformal, in coordination with other sectorsand orders government.

Vertical housing, model that must prevail(2015).

Expand access to housing for all. Promotefirm housing with dignified spaces andservices.

Formulate a housing policy with a humanrights focus, to that Mexicans enjoy decenthousing, of quality housing with communitycoexistence and access to the internet.

Implement a National Housing System, andincrease the number of credits that may beavailable to their beneficiaries.

ISSUESOIL REFINERIES

ISSUESOIL REFINERIES

JOSÉ ANTONIO MEADE KURIBEÑAA refinery when its finished generates moreor less tan 30 Jobs. What Mexico needs its toreconfigure the existing ones, wich is how weexpand its refinig capacity.

ÁNDRES MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADORLópez Obrador said on Friday 09. “By themiddle of the next presidential term, we’regoing to stop buying gasoline, we’re going toproduce gasoline in Mexico.”

López Obrador wants to completely haltexports of crude oil.

López Obrador wants to build one or twonew refineries, which would each cost about$6 billion and take approximately three yearsto construct.

RICARDO ANAYA CORTÉSSo what are we going to do is rather with onehand to bet on clean energy and instead ofthinking about building new refineries, wewill support and strengthen those that wealready have, starting of course, by the Tularefinery.

ISSUESCUSTOMS

• In Mexico, 31 foreign trade operations are carried out per minute.• 95% of them through customs agents.• Mexico trades around 752 billion US dollars.• It collects in the customs almost 43 billion dollars in 2017.

- Secretary of Finance and Public Credit

ISSUESCUSTOMS

JOSÉ ANTONIO MEADE KURIBEÑAIs a challenge with weapons and here in BajaCalifornia is where the customs are, thecrossings, it is an issue that has to be takencare of, there is a matter of cash andresources in the hands of crime, it must befought with greater efficiency.

ÁNDRES MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADORMove the Mexican customs south of theborder with the United States from 20 to 100kilometers.

RICARDO ANAYA CORTÉSPromote a new program of cooperation inthe area of security between Mexico-UnitedStates, under the approach of reducingviolence and citizen security, which dealswith the same importance the illicit trafficsfrom both sides of the border (narcotics fromMexico to the United States, and weaponsfrom the United States to Mexico).

ISSUESIMPORTS / EXPORTS

$136,373.54

$185,448.52

$327,375.07

$114,059.68 $112,788.74

$194,959.42

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M exico-United States merchandise trade (2001-2007)

E xp or ts to U. S I m por t s f rom U. S.

Assured in 2017 that the creationof a new legal figure in favor ofcustoms agents is advancing, wichimplies granting legal certainty totheir investments, as well as theircontinuity, wich will be reflected ina more efficient trade.

López Obrador wants to completely halt exports of crude oil.

ISSUESPORTS & HARBOUR

The ports of Salina Cruz and Coatzacualcos will berehabilitated to communicate the countries of Asia with theEast Coast of the United States to move across the Atlantic, inaddition throught the corridor will be assembling factories forwork.

In the Budget of Expenditures of the Federation (PEF) wasincluded, in the annex 37 of the Branch 8, the project For theSouth-Southeast Productive Development and Special EconomicZones, with 174 million 100 thousand pesos; Paradise of theinfrastructure plans in Puerto Chiapas was allocated 40 millionpesos and 38 million 500 thousand pesos for Coatzacoalcos.

Feb. 2017 The port of Manzanillo will have a maritime bridge toconnect the two customs offices and thus streamline theprocesses necessary for the trade of this fiscal area.

Demographics ISSUESDEMOGRAPHICS

OraculusPOLLS of POLLS

Mitofsky’s Polls

Goverment Approval Presidential Approval

Approve Disapprove

Mitofsky’s Polls

6% of Mexicans approves the currentgoverment

País Disapprove Approves

México 93% 6%

Chile 78% 17%

Colombia 82% 18%

Venezuela 73% 25%

Perú 67% 25%

Brasil 54% 28%