electricity and long-term decarbonization subtitle · 2017. 4. 20. · blanford, geoffrey subject:...
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© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Geoffrey J. Blanford, Ph.D.Electric Power Research Institute
Implications of Paris Second WorkshopTrondheim, Norway
6 March 2017
Electricity and Decarbonization
U.S. Perspective
2© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Electricity and Decarbonization
Current trajectory of US generation
Role of electric sector in economy-wide decarbonization
– Electrification
– Negative emissions
3© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al T
Wh
US Electric Sector Decarbonization: One Scenario
US-REGEN
(95% by 2050, electric sector only)
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro+
Wind
Solar
Gas-CCS
New
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Bill
ion
to
ns
CO
2
Reference (includes Clean Power Plan)
4© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al T
Wh
US Electric Sector Decarbonization: One Scenario
US-REGEN
(95% by 2050, electric sector only)
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro+
Wind
Solar
Gas-CCS
New
Assumes Clean Power Plan (CPP) through 2030 (coal gas, growing renewables)
CPP future is uncertain, but many drivers remain for these trends
After 2030, assumes least-cost compliance with a cap falling to near-zero levels by 2050
Key features of decarbonization:
– Wind > Solar
– Gas remains a large part of mix
– Gas-CCS beats coal-CCS (and bio-CCS)
– Nuclear gradually expands
Carbon price is $50/tCO2 until 2050, when it spikes to $170/tCO2 (despite controlling for investment end-effects)
5© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Where’s the carbon in the US economy?D
irec
t Em
issi
on
s (M
tCO
2)
[Other]Transportation Buildings Industry
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
6© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
US Direct CO2 emissions + Fossil Fuel Consumption
Ener
gy C
on
sum
pti
on
(q
uad
s)
Dir
ect
Emis
sio
ns
(MtC
O2)
Gas
Coal
Petroleum
CO2
Transportation Buildings Industry
0
5
10
15
20
25
[Other]
7© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
US Direct CO2 emissions + All Fuel Consumption
Ener
gy C
on
sum
pti
on
(q
uad
s)
Dir
ect
Emis
sio
ns
(MtC
O2)
Transportation Buildings Industry
CO2
0
5
10
15
20
25
[Other]
Gas
Coal
Petroleum
ElectricityBioenergy
8© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Non-Electric Energy CO2 Emissions in US
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fuel TransportDomestic AviationOther Transport
Heavy Trucks
Industry Boilers
Industry Process
Refining
Other Industry
Cars and Light Trucks
Water Heating/cooking
Space Heating
Half of non-electric emissions are in sectors with clear potential for deep electrification, subject to consumer behavior and significant system impacts (e.g. load shape)
Industry and heavy transport: also potential for electrification, but fewer opportunities / more barriers
9© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
“Paris and Beyond” scenarios in EPRI’s MERGE analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Bill
ion
tonn
es C
O2
equ
ival
ent
S1: Baseline
S2: NDC only | Base
S3: NDC + | Base
S4: NDC ++ | Base
S5: NDC ++ | Level 1
S6: NDC ++ | Level 2
S7: NDC ++ | Level 3
S8: 2 deg C post-2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Deg
rees
Cel
sius
abo
ve p
re-i
nd
ust
rial
a. Global Emissions b. Global Mean Temperature
2100
From “The Paris Agreement and Next Steps in Limiting Global Warming”, Rose et al (2017), Climatic Change, forthcoming
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Global Emissions in Ambitious Post-Paris Scenario
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
No Negative Emissions (dashed lines)
Total Emissions*
Energy CO2
Elec CO2
Non-Elec CO2
Bill
ion
to
nn
esC
O2
equ
ival
ent
* Excludes LU/LUC/F
11© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al T
Wh
US Electric Sector Decarbonization: US-REGEN vs MERGE
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al T
Wh
US-REGEN
(95% by 2050, electric sector only)
MERGE
(80% by 2050, economy-wide)
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro+
Wind
Solar
Gas-CCS
New
Coal-CCS
Bio-CCS
12© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Summary
Many drivers other than CPP for CPP-esque emissions reductions in US electric sector through 2030
– Gas price, renewable incentives, state and regional policies
However there remains a disconnect with Paris goals
– Rapid decarbonization will require new drivers
– Bio-CCS seems a remote possibility – other direct removal options?
– Electrification is promising pathway for other sectors but needs support
Research needs in modeling community
– Better linking of long-term global analysis to near-term sectoral actions
– More sophistication to accurately frame trade-offs among technologies
13© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity