Embracing theory of change

Tom Randolph, Jane Poole and Michael Kidoido

ILRI Institute Planning Meeting4-7 October 2016

What is this talk about Theory of Change?

• Accountability and need to explain how our activities will lead to the impact we want

• We used to use logical framework (logframes)– Focus on activities and outputs with leaps of faith to objectives and

goals• Theory of Change framework adopted by CGIAR

– More emphasis on how outputs will translate into impact– Understanding how change will happen and assumptions we are making– Being mainstreamed for M&E and learning

Learn to talk the ToC !!

Theory ?!??! Isn’t that what science is about: explaining cause & effect??

Health warning

• No agreed standard interpretation or presentation

An art form – as many different interpretations as there are people working with ToC

Focus on the general spirit, not on the details

• Needs to explain:1. Our cause-effect logic2. Our responsibility3. How change happens at all levels

At the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)

Research

Economic principles +Remote sensing

Output

Index-based Insurance concept

Outcome

Inclusive commercial insurance product

Outcome

Poor livestock keepers are clients

Devel

opment

Outcome

Higher and more stable income

Impact

Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers

The GOALA possible SOLUTION

Research

Economic principles +Remote sensing

Output

Index-based Insurance concept

Outcome

Inclusive commercial insurance product

Outcome

Poor livestock keepers are clients

Devel

opment

Outcome

Higher and more stable income

Impact

Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers

The GOALA possible SOLUTION

At the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)

Research

Economic principles +Remote sensing

Output

Index-based Insurance concept

Outcome

Inclusive commercial insurance product

Outcome

Poor livestock keepers are clients

Devel

opment

Outcome

Higher and more stable income

Impact

Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers

• What evidence supports this theory?• If evidence is weak, what assumptions are we making?

Economic simulation modeling

Role of income smoothing in

poverty studies

Pastoralists perceive benefits and are

willing to pay repeatedly

Product can be profitable for

commercial companies

Pay-outs effectively smooth income

At the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)

Sphere of Interest

Sphere of InfluenceSphere of Control

Setting it in an Impact Pathway: How? Who?

Research

Economic principles +Remote sensing

Output

Index-based Insurance concept

Resea

rch Ou

tco

me

Inclusive commercial insurance product- Pilot- At scale

Dev

elop

me

nt Outco

me

Poor livestock keepers are clients- Pilot- At scale

Dev

elop

me

nt Outco

me

Higher and more stable income

Impact

Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers

Sphere of Interest

MEL for Development Effectiveness

Sphere of Influence

MEL for Research Use & Effectiveness

Sphere of Control

MEL for Research Relevance & Quality

STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT

SDGs

Sub-IDOs, IDOs, SLOs

Changes in policies and institutions

Foresight &

Initial stakeholder

engagement

Research,

innovations & service

s

Changes in

capacity (KAS) & aspiratio

ns

Changes in

practice

Direct/ indirect benefits

Improved well-being

& eco-system health

Rapid assessment and learning loops Credit: Tonya Scheutz, Indicators Task Force

Highlighting how change will happen

Strong growth systems

Fragile growth systems

High growth with externalitiesCorporate Services

People & Organizational Development

Communications and Knowledge Management

Business DevelopmentCapacity Development

Intellectual Property / LegalRegional Representation

Research Methods

Sustainable

Livestock

Systems

Policy, Value Chains

and Livelihoods

BECA

Impact at

Scale

Livestock

Genetics

Feed and

Forages Develop

ment

Animal and

Human Health

An initial ILRI theory of change

Sphere of control Sphere of influence Sphere of interest .

SO3: Increased capacities

SO1: Im

proved Practices

SO2: Increased investm

ent

What we do… Goals (Impacts) Outcomes

Improved Food &

Nutrition Security

Reduced Poverty

Develop, test, adapt and promote science-cased practices; Provide compelling

evidence in ways that persuade decision makers; increase capacity among ILRI key

stakeholders and the institution itself

Assumptions (Critical success factors) • Science is right• ILRI is able to influence decision makers • ILRI grows capacity• ILRI is fit for purpose • ILRI is able to secure sustainable funding

Sustainability

Increased productivity

Increased resilience

Improved food safety

Increased income &

employment

IDOs

Livestock CRP Flagship ToC

Why is it important for us to talk the ToC?

• Being applied to guide our planning at various levels: ILRI, programs, CRPs

• Makes us keep an eye on impact and how it will be achieved

• Plays to our training as scientists– Emphasizes the role of evidence– Challenge our assumptions

• Can make us more convinced ….. and more convincing!

Extracted from:Strategic overview of CGIAR Research programs Part I. Theories of Change and Impact Pathways (December 2012), ISPC

This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.

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