Emerging challenges of expanding medical supply in the UK

Dr Graham Willis, CfWI

If nothing changes by

2020

England will have at least

60%more medical consultants

The pay bill will rise by over

£2 billion

We still will not have enough

GPs

Some trainees starting out today will not get

jobs

Some specialties will have

too few consultants

some too many

Geographical inequalities will still

exist

The UK has never had consultant

unemployment

Nor a

consultant delivered service

A view from

Scotland...

Foundation Exit : Scottish Foundation Trainee Destinations

11%

4%

1%

55%

17%

12%

83%

No Information

No Job

Other

Working-Scotland

Working-OtherUK

Working-Overseas

Source : 2009/10 NES F2 Cohort Survey; N=689, 86.3% Response

Scottish Medical Graduate Opportunities 2011-2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

F2 output (IMGcorrected)

Projected GP,RT1 and corerecruitment

82

Entry to Specialty Training : Applicants 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nationality

Non EU

EU

UK

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Resident

Non EU

EU

UK

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Graduate

Non EU

OtherEU

OtherUK

Scotland

Source : NES Review of ST Applications 20101778 applicants, 2740 applications, 749 posts (Round 1)

Predicted changes in HCHS medical workforce in Scotland to 2019(If reshaping project is implemented)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Career Grade doctors Doctors in training Doctors with HCHS NTN

Trajectory if undergraduate numbers reduced from 2011

Is this a problem or an

opportunity?