Neg Cards

1NC

Offcase

1NC DA 1Expanding gambling in Florida violates the exclusivity of the Seminole gaming compact ending the compact.Rosica 13, James, Tampa Tribune staff writer, 10/5/13, “State eyes gambling expansion gingerly, fears losing Seminole money,” http://tbo.com/news/business/state-eyes-gambling-expansion-gingerly-fears-losing-seminole-money-20131005/, Accessed 7/26/14

TALLAHASSEE — Money is addictive, and a cool $200 million or so a year is usually impossible to resist. ¶ But that’s what

your state lawmakers could be passing up if they choose to expand gambling in Florida. ¶ The state’s deal with the Seminole Tribe of Florida guarantees it a minimum $ 1 billion cut of revenue from the tribe’s gambling income over five years. The tribe operates Tampa’s Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino and other gambling facilities across the state.¶ But

the agreement , known as the Seminole Compact, also guarantees the Seminoles exclusive rights to offer Las Vegas-

style gambling outside Miami-Dade and Broward counties. If they lose that exclusivity through expanded gambling, the Seminoles don’t have to pay another dime. ¶ Their 2013-14 payment alone is estimated at $233 million, with $226 million going to the state and $7 million to local governments.¶ With a new study suggesting a minor economic lift overall from more gambling in Florida, lawmakers may have to think hard before pulling the trigger on new gambling.¶ The study and comments from upcoming public workshops are supposed to be blueprints for a big gambling bill during the 2014 legislative session, including whether to allow Las Vegas-style destination casino-resorts.¶ Last year, a bill died in the Legislature that would have permitted the construction of three destination hotel-casinos in South Florida.¶ The Senate gaming committee is scheduled to meet Monday to discuss a working draft of the gambling report, authored by New Jersey-based consultant Spectrum Gaming Group. The final version is due Nov. 1. The public workshop closest to Tampa is 3

p.m. Oct. 30 at the George Jenkins High School auditorium in Lakeland.¶ ***¶ Spectrum suggests “that the introduction of casinos,

whether standalone destination resorts, or addition of slot machines at existing parimutuels, will lead to modest economic benefits,” its report said.¶ T he part of the compact that gives the Seminoles the right to offer certain card games, such as blackjack, expires in 2015 unless reauthorized. They do not want to let it go and are willing to spend big to keep it, recently contributing $500,000 to Gov. Rick Scott’s re-election, for example.¶ “The Seminole Tribe worked for two decades to secure a gaming compact with the state of Florida that provided a more stable future for the Tribe and its members and allowed for significant sharing of gaming revenue with the state,” tribal spokesman Gary Bitner said. “The tribe wants to maintain that steady, stable course through 2015 and beyond.”¶ State Sen. Bill Galvano, a Bradenton Republican who represents parts of Hillsborough County, sits on the gaming committee and worked on the compact when he served in the House.¶ “These issues are so complex and there are so many competing interests; it’s not something you can rush,” Galvano said. “The idea is to really understand the gaming industries within the state of Florida and their potentials. Also, the gaming laws are not uniform; they’ve been put together piecemeal.”¶ The problem with cleaning up the regulations is

that any changes could run afoul of the compact. ¶ “A change to the compact is not something that can be

accomplished overnight,” Galvano said. “You’re talking about a negotiation between two sovereigns … and (it) has to have federal approval.”

Seminole casino revenue is key to Everglade restoration and protectionCattelino 09, Jessica, associate professor of anthropology at UCLA and a member in the School of Social Science at IAS in 2008-09; previously, she was an assistant professor of anthropology at the University of Chicago, Wrote a book about Seminoles, May 2009, “Florida Seminoles and the Cultural Politics of the Everglades,” https://www.sss.ias.edu/files/papers/paper36.pdf, Accessed 7/28/14

The water compact ushered in a new era of Seminole control over natural resources and of increased interdependency among the Tribe, the State of Florida, federal agencies, and the South Florida Water Management District. Although the compact was a serious compromise, it resulted in tribal bureaucratic control and technical expertise that would buttress subsequent environmental claims (see Clow and Sutton 2001). Craig Tepper, a non-Seminole soil conservationist who directs the Tribe’s Environmental Resource Management Department, operates offices at Hollywood, Big Cypress, and Brighton that employed approximately thirty people in 2009. In the wake of the water rights compact, he explained, his department took responsibility for reservation water sampling and quality assessment, research, surveying, maintenance of large

systems (dikes, pump stations), and issuance of well permits. His staff regulates on-reservation water use, oversees cleanup of underground fuel tanks and other

pollutants, participates in federal wetlands protection programs, and consults in planning for tribal development projects (August 31, 2000). The federal Environmental Protection Agency has delegated to the Tribe the authority to implement the Clean Water Act within the Tribe’s jurisdiction, and so the Tribe sets and enforces it own water quality standards, much like a state would. Technical language and red tape abound, whether in tribal council resolutions about water monitoring or small-font Environmental Impact Statements published and generally ignored in just about every issue of the widely-read Seminole Tribune. Other departments now establish and enforce hunting and fishing regulations, although the scope of permissible Seminole hunting became a hotly-contested issue in the mid-1980s, when then-Tribal Chairman James Billie was arrested and tried for killing an endangered Florida panther for religious purposes. Jim Shore, general counsel, acknowledged to me that many Seminoles stand at a distance from the compact and related legal issues because “The general Seminole public doesn’t feel as though they are part of the destruction of the environment.” They don’t necessarily care about the compact, he added, and they may feel as though they shouldn’t have to worry about cleaning up after others (December 6, 2000). No doubt in reference to its bureaucratic demands, chairman James Billie once in a tribal council meeting referred to the compact as a pain in his behind (March 8, 2001).

The water compact has given the Tribe unprecedented control over the movement of water on its lands, not just over boundaries but over quantity, distribution, timing, quality. These are the four key terms used in Everglades restoration circles to describe the components of “getting the water right.” Increased control over water movement has brought the Tribe into new relations of negotiation and

cooperation with other large land managers. 16 It is through this interdependency that Seminoles have secured a prominent place at the environmental negotiating table , a position they leverage to protect and extend their interests, but also from which their interests develop in the first place.

In 1999, the Tribe partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to undertake a major water conservation project at Big Cypress that incorporated storage, quality treatment, conveyance, and flood control. This was the largest-ever joint effort by

the Corps and an American Indian tribal government and, in order to secure decision-making power, the Seminole Tribe provided matching

funds of $25 million. Local newspaper coverage noted that the Tribe was directing casino revenues toward environmental stewardship , and Seminoles emphasized that gaming finally was enabling them to regain control over their territory and its environmental quality . A January 2002

groundbreaking ceremony featured speeches by elected tribal leaders and readings by Seminole children about the importance of protecting the Everglades (Weinberg 2002). Councilman Max Osceola, Jr. told The Miami Herald: “It’s ironic that the military forced us here and pushed us here [to South Florida], and now the military is working hand in hand with us” (Cabral 2002). Such intergovernmental collaboration represents a shift from hostility and neglect to cooperation, a change made possible only after Seminoles had legally secured their water rights and achieved gaming-based economic and political power. In 2000, Congress authorized the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP), an extraordinarily complicated multi-component project, which, at estimated tens of billions of dollars, is the world’s largest ecological restoration project and is touted as a model and a test of America’s commitment to its future.

CERP’s logo includes text about the effort’s many partners and mentions “tribal partners” along with federal and regional agencies and other governments. Though not as prominent in this effort as their Miccosukee neighbors, Seminoles are at the table again, staking a claim to this massive ecological,

social, and political experiment. Theories of sovereignty often unduly privilege autonomy, but in the era of Everglades restoration, Seminoles’ increasing interdependency with other governments in natural resource management facilitates their sovereignty claims.1

Everglades restoration key to prevent extinction and serves as a global environmental modelTowery and Regalado 09 [Chris – U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Nanciann – U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Getting the Water Right, July-August themilitaryengineer.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=62]

Industrial initiatives, so often hailed as “progress,” have come at a price. Much of Florida’s native landscape was dramatically changed; perhaps the most severely damaged was the Everglades . The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)

is one of the principal agencies in a joint effort to restore the Everglades, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), the world’s largest restoration

project ever. The plan is designed to create a sustainable future for the state and its residents. It will not only

restore much of the South Florida ecosystem , but it also will enhance urban and agricultural water supplies.

This task is not easily accomplished . It will take many years to complete and success will require that all involved use cutting-edge science and engineering. The plan is likely to have a major impact on both the future of the environment and the future of our country. It stands to be a model for all succeeding restoration

efforts ; it stands to alter man’s symbiotic relationship with nature; and it stands to change the way in which agencies like

USACE do business. Ultimately, CERP may even influence man’s ability to survive on Earth .

1NC CP 1The United States Congress should establish an independent study commission empowered to submit recommendations to Congress for online gambling legalization. Congress will allow 60 days to pass the result of the commission’s study overriding recommendations by a two-thirds majority. If Congress doesn’t vote within the specified period, those recommendations will become law. The commission should recommend to Congress that the United States legalize nearly all online gambling in the United States.The CP solves the case and is distinct from the planPolson 6, Sarah, Staff Writer for PokerListings.com – one of the largest online poker guides in the world, 6/5/06, “Congressman submits alternate online gaming legislation,” http://www.pokerlistings.com/congressman-submits-alternate-online-gaming-legislation-6707, Accessed 7/10/14

Representative Jon Porter, with the help of fellow Nevada Congressmen Jim Gibbons and Shelley Berkley as original co-sponsors, has

introduced the Internet Gambling Study Commission Act in Congress which will establish a commission to

examine the impact of online gambling. This legislation is being introduced as an alternative to the

current bills making their way through Congress that would effectively ban online gambling. "With technology constantly evolving, we need a much better understanding of online gambling before Congress makes any rash decisions about its future," Porter said. "By establishing a bipartisan, independent study commission, we'll make sure we have all of the facts laid out on the table before considering any possible next steps." The legislation will specifically set up a bipartisan Internet Gambling Study Commission consisting of nine appointed members who'll be responsible for conducting an extensive, comprehensive study of Internet gambling, including the existing legal framework that governs activities and transactions. Within 18 months, that commission will submit their findings and recommendations to the President and Congress for administrative or legislative action. The new proposal follows closely on the heals of a survey of online gamblers that showed 70% of respondents starting gambling online in the past two years, and the American Gaming Association's (AGA) call for an investigation by Congress into online gambling. "The American people clearly want to gamble on the Internet," said Frank Fahrenkopf of the

AGA. "The question is, what's the best way to protect them? Is it better to have them offshore or would it be better to license, regulate and tax them here? That's what a commission should look at." The AGA also released a paper as part of their 10th Anniversary Research Series May 23 discussing the implications of Internet gambling in which the

author, Washington D.C. based attorney David Stewart, supports the creation of a Congressional commission to study the

issue. He wrote, "A study commission approach could develop an effective, comprehensive legislative approach that would address the complex and often conflicting policies now in place, as well as the general confusion about the legal issues surrounding Internet gambling."

1NC DA 2Will pass – Obama’s capital is key – must avoid random new fights with demsSUR 1 – 7 – 15 Columnist for the Stanford Daily [Debnil Sur, Free trade: A site of potential bipartisanship?, http://www.stanforddaily.com/2015/01/07/trade-a-site-of-potential-bipartisanship/]

This week represents the start of the 114th Congress, and to say that recent sessions have been polarized is an understatement. Voting has been divided among partisan lines at an unprecedented scale, correspondingly generating historic levels of gridlock and record lows for laws enacted. Almost 400 bills passed by the Republican-dominated House of Representatives, some of which even had bipartisan support, died at the desk of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D, NV).

While Republican control of both the House and the Senate will likely end such disconnect, it also sets up two years of political paralysis between the executive and legislative branches – potentially continuing the bitterly partisan politics

that have plagued Congress. Both politicians and analysts have pointed to international trade policy as a

potential site of bipartisan agreement with enormous economic benefits. However, it’s imperative that action be

taken on such issues early in the current Congressional cycle to avoid being derailed by continuing

partisan bickering .

Interestingly, the new Republican majority in the Senate will bring in leadership more aligned with President

Obama’s views on trade . Republicans already back trade promotion authority (TPA) legislation, which would let Congress consider proposed free trade agreements on an expedited basis once the President’s team finishes negotiations. By assuring other nations that

Congress cannot undermine the President’s agreements, approving TPA would make it easier for U.S. negotiators to complete the deals. Yet

since 2008, Democrats Reid and Nancy Pelosi, both previously free trade skeptics, have opposed such authority. On the other hand, incoming Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has expressed a belief that “potential for agreement” exists on trade issues.

Such agreement would come at a welcome time for the United States. The most important ongoing trade negotiations that would be affected include the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with Asian nations and the

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the European Union. Both could significantly improve America’s economic vitality and image abroad. The former, involving the United States and eleven Asian nations, would be the largest trade deal ever completed, with close to 40 percent of the world’s GDP represented at the negotiating table. According to a recent Peterson Institute report, a deal could increase annual global income by $295 billion ($78 billion for the U.S.) by 2025. Improving trade relations is essential to deepening America’s relationships with rising regional powers and regional multilateral institutions, thus lending more credibility to President Obama’s ongoing “pivot to Asia.” Without the agreement, the shift today is purely military; peace in a tense region that is vital to the global economy requires deeper economic integration, rather than more troops and missiles. Expanding America’s trade ties will thus only increase regional stability.

In addition to eliminating already low tariffs between the U.S. and EU, the latter deal would harmonize regulations generally considered to be “non-tariff trade barriers,” like car and pharmaceutical safety standards. Continued tariff reductions could create huge savings for companies that do the most transatlantic trade, resulting in 0.5 percent annual increases to the U.S. and EU GDPs by 2027. Stimulating struggling economies in the eurozone can also benefit America’s geopolitical interests in the region. For instance, expediting currently-stalled liquefied natural gas export deals could reduce countries’ dependence on Russian energy and strengthen joint U.S.-EU sanctions on the adventurous Putin regime. Such deepened isolation may help deter further aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere.

Unfortunately, despite the litany of potential benefits, passage of TPA legislation is far from guaranteed . Republican House

Speaker John Boehner has said the White House needs to rally support from at least 50 House Democrats to get the bill through the lower chamber – a difficult task, considering that many of the trade-friendly Democrats lost to Republicans in the last election.The recent Democratic opposition to the omnibus spending bill, which barely passed, illustrates the strength of these intraparty detractors. Plus, even if the votes can be had, the upcoming presidential campaign may see Democratic support again grow scarce as the 2016 election moves ever closer.

With both foreign policy and the economy turning the corner, President Obama must capitalize upon his sudden strength

and use it to broker a deal a s s oon a s p ossible . With the Republican Senate poised to unveil legislation in coming weeks,

the window of opportunity has arrived . International officials from TPP countries have stated that the first six months of 2015 will be critical to finish up talks and hammer out details. Thus, it is imperative to pass domestic legislation sooner , rather than later. Effective leadership and support from the President can avoid election year politics and the partisanship that has plagued contemporary Congress . On the other hand,

starting the year by picking the wrong fight , such as environmental conservation or health care, could destroy compromise and tank the president’s political capital altogether.

A new year provides new opportunities for compromise. Trade promotion authority could provide a sustainable basis for America’s economic

health and international relations. The ball is in the President’s court – it’s up to him to play it correctly.

Plan’s massively unpopular—but commission shield the linkSchwartz 14, David, PhD, Director of UNLV’s Center for Gaming Research, “The Online Gaming Debate: Not So Fast, Congress,” http://vegasseven.com/2014/04/01/online-gaming-debate-fast-congress/, Accessed 7/2/14

As I write this, a bill that would recriminalize online gaming—even where U.S. states have sanctioned and regulated it—has been introduced into Congress. Should the bill pass as written, the online gaming industries of Nevada, New Jersey and Delaware, representing millions of dollars in investment and thousands of hours of regulatory effort, would be switched off immediately. I find it hard to believe that Senate Majority

Leader Harry Reid could let that happen. At the same time, those who have pledged to “roll back” online gaming won’t just surrender. This is one more controversy most incumbents would be glad to duck. Rolling back online gaming where it exists now would almost surely result in a lengthy and costly legal battle between states and the federal government, and is bound to satisfy nearly no one: Those who don’t like gambling will want it reduced further,

and those who don’t want the government to tell them how to gamble will be outraged. With both sides ratcheting up their lobbying, though, it seems that Congress is painting itself into a corner without a way forward or compromise that will satisfy everyone. But maybe there is. A new national gambling study commission would help lawmakers genuinely learn more about the subject, and provide valuable short-term political cover for everyone. There are precedents here: Congress has studied gambling several times; the first national look at the topic, the 1950-52 Kefauver Committee, primarily considered illegal gambling and resulted in laws that restricted the transportation of slot machines and taxed sports betting—both attempts to stifle gambling, illegal and legal. The second major investigation, the 1974-76 Commission to Review the National Policy on Gambling, took place just as states were moving into the business via lotteries. While it expressed some reservations about illegal gambling, the commission concluded that states were qualified to choose for themselves their level of gambling, and even cautioned the federal government not to “hinder” state efforts to legalize it. The most recent major study, the National Gambling Impact Study Commission, met from 1997 to 1999, as states were legalizing commercial casinos and signing compacts to facilitate tribal gaming. Initially, those in the industry feared that this group—with a healthy representation of known gambling opponents—would initiate federal action against casinos. Ultimately, however, the commission delivered a balanced report that recognized the potential of casino gaming as a positive force. That commission filed its final report 15 years ago. Since then, the gambling world has gone through revolutionary changes. Las Vegas is no longer the global leader in gaming; casino proliferation has increased; and, of course, online play has promised to

transform not just casinos, but lotteries and horse-race betting as well. In other words, gambling in America has changed at least as much between 1999 and 2014 as it did between 1976 and 1999. A new look at the industry— a thorough investigation and discussion—might be the only way to develop a coherent national policy. Right now, to the extent that there is a coherent policy, it’s being shaped in fits and starts. Legislators are reacting (or not reacting) to messages from competing interest groups, with little chance to divine the true nature of the choices facing us, the needs of the country or the wishes of

the electorate. A national study of gambling, in which full-time staffers could dig through the hype and hysteria to assemble a body of knowledge that accurately reflects where the country is (and where it can go, for better or worse) would give lawmakers something on which to base their votes.

Congress has to approve or deny all compactsLEGAL DICTIONARY no date [http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Interstate+Compact]

Interstate Compact

A voluntary arrangement between two or more states that is designed to solve their common problems and that becomes part of the laws of each state.

Interstate compacts in the United States were first used by the American colonies to settle boundary disputes. After the American Revolution, states continued to use interstate compacts to meet their various needs. Although these compacts were necessary for peaceful interaction between the states, they posed a threat to the future of the United States: if states were allowed to form powerful coalitions, they might be tempted to break away from the rest of the country and fracture the Union.

Under Article I, Section 10, Clause 3, of the U.S. Constitution, " No State shall, without the Consent of Congress … enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State ." This clause, the Interstate Compact Clause, was adopted with no debate. Moreover, it received only cursory discussion in subsequent papers written by the Constitution's Framers, so its purpose and scope were not developed.

Most courts followed the lead of Justice Joseph Story (1779–1845), of the Supreme Court, an influential legal commentator of the nineteenth

century. According to Story, the clause was meant to protect the supremacy of the federal government. With this

general principle as guidance, courts interpreted the clause to give Congress the power to nullify an interstate compact if it frustrated federal aims.

Over the years, four steps have evolved to guide courts in their review of interstate compact cases. First, there must be an agreement between two or more states. If no concerted effort is actually undertaken by two or more states, Congress has no power to review the state actions under the Interstate Compact Clause. In determining whether there is an agreement, the court may ask whether the states have officially formed a joint organization, whether a state's action is conditioned on action by another state, and whether any state is free to modify its position without consulting other states.

If the court finds that there is an agreement, the court will examine the agreement to determine whether it infringes on federal sovereignty. Not all interstate compacts infringe on federal supremacy. The question the court asks is whether the agreement between the states interferes with federal statutes or initiatives. For example, consider the federal legislation that outlaws certain automatic and semiautomatic assault weapons: title XI of the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act (Pub. L. No. 103-322, 108 Stat. 1807 [codified as amended in scattered sections of 42 U.S.C.A.]). The purpose of the legislation is to limit firearm ownership. An interstate compact that legalized the banned assault weapons, and thus expanded firearm ownership, would infringe on the federal statute, whereas an interstate compact that outlawed additional assault weapons, and thus further limited firearm ownership, would not infringe on the federal statute.

If an interstate compact is found to infringe on federal initiatives, the court will then determine

whether Congress has given its approval for the compact . Congress may grant approval before or after a

compact is formed. Congress may also give indirect approval to a compact. For example, Congress may give its tacit approval to a compact on state boundaries if it subsequently approves the federal elections, appointments, and tax schemes of the states.

Finally, Congress may seek to amend or change an interstate compact after it has been approved. Congress may amend a compact or completely revoke its approval of a compact. Congress may also grant its approval with conditions attached.

The most common interstate compacts concern agreements to share natural resources, such as water; build regional electric power sources; share parks and parkways; conserve fish and wildlife; protect air quality; manage radioactive and other hazardous wastes; control natural disasters, such as floods; share educational resources and facilities; share police and fire departments; and grant reciprocity for driver's licenses.

Congress has passed statutes that require prior congressional approval for many such compacts.

TPA is key to the Asia pivotScott Miller 14, Scholl Chair in International Business at CSIS, and Paul Nadeau, program manager and research associate with the Scholl Chair at CSIS, “TPP Is More than a Trade Agreement,” Jan 31 2014, http://csis.org/publication/tpp-more-trade-agreement

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid made news this week when he said that “everyone would be well advised not to push (Trade Promotion Authority, TPA) right

now.” Because trade agreements negotiated by the United States practically require TPA to be concluded , Senator

Reid’s comments were described as “putting the brakes” on the President’s trade agenda until after the midterm elections in November.¶ Senator Reid’s comments should not have been surprising or even troubling. When asked if he would bring TPA to the Senate floor, Reid replied with “We’ll see,” leaving the possibility on the table. That trade critics are pleased with Senator Reid’s comments and that business groups are not isn’t news. President Obama expressed support for trade agreements during the State of the Union address, but not much more than a name-check and not enough to provide political cover to Democrats who might consider supporting TPA. With Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other Republicans openly advocating TPA, the issue was probably due to get some push-back from Democrats. Tactically, this makes sense because no Democrat in a contested seat (and Senator Reid has many to protect) for the November elections stands to gain from TPA or the deals that it would accelerate, chiefly the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).¶ Who gains the most now from TPA and the resulting TPP agreement? The White House. This isn’t because of the immediate economic benefits to the United States, or because it provides a template for future

large-scale, comprehensive trade agreements, or because the President has advanced the most ambitious trade agenda since the early 1990s.¶ The White

House needs TPA because the TPP is the “pivot to Asia.” The military realignment is important, but the repositioning is mostly

relative, driven by drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Pivot is a political and economic realignment that aims to

improve cooperation and integration among the U nited S tates and East Asia . Then-secretary of state Hillary Clinton

said this explicitly in her Foreign Policy article, “America’s Pacific Century,” when she wrote “[O]pen markets in Asia provide the United States with unprecedented opportunities for investment, trade, and access to cutting-edge technology. Our economic recovery at home will depend on exports and the ability of American firms to tap into the vast and growing consumer base of Asia.” Military presence was only one out of the six courses of action that Secretary Clinton used to define

the Asia Pivot, while the TPP is arguably the key ingredient of three (deepening America's relationships with rising powers, including China; engaging with regional multilateral institutions; expanding trade and investment). If solving the financial crisis and passing health care reform were President Obama’s key domestic policy victories, then the Asia Pivot is primed to be the area where he beneficially changes the course of U.S. foreign policy (the discussions with Iran are still too nascent to determine how far reaching they will become).¶ Today,

there are tensions among Asia’s large powers, and the U nited S tates is likely the single entity that

can influence the situation. The U nited S tates and Asia need each other and TPP is the vehicle that

can functionally, economically, and politically help bind them together . The Members of Congress and staff that have

drafted the TPA bill have put admirable effort into legislation. Trade negotiators working on TPP have been equally tireless. But TPP, and Asia, cannot wait forever.

Many in Asia are already concerned that the Pivot was only superficial and that United States is already

moving on. If TPA and TPP remain framed as a trade issue, with all of the political baggage that comes with that, the Administration risks putting TPP on ice

for 2014.¶ Alternatively, the Administration can influence perceptions by framing the TPP as a strategic goal that will be the cornerstone of the Asia Pivot. This

would reassure U.S. partners in Asia and answer domestic critics who argue that the Pivot lacks substance. Moreover, it would give the

President an achievable goal in advance of his April trip to Asia.

Pivot prevents nuclear war Colby 11 – Elbridge Colby, research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, served as policy advisor to the Secretary of Defense’s Representative to the New START talks, expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, August 10, 2011, “Why the U.S. Needs its Liberal Empire,” The Diplomat, online: http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/2/?print=yes

But the pendulum shouldn’t be allowed to swing too far toward an incautious retrenchment. For our problem hasn’t been overseas

commitments and interventions as such, but the kinds of interventions. The US alliance and partnership structure, what the late William

Odom called the United States’ ‘liberal empire’ that includes a substantial military presence and a willingness to use it in the defence of US and allied interests, remains a vital component of US security and global stability and prosperity. This system of voluntary and consensual cooperation under US leadership, particularly in the security realm,

constitutes a formidable bloc defending the liberal international order.¶ But, in part due to poor decision-making

in Washington, this system is under strain, particularly in East Asia, where the security situation has become tenser even as the region continues to become the centre of the global economy.¶ A nuclear North Korea’s violent behaviour threatens South Korea and Japan, as well as US forces on the peninsula; Pyongyang’s development of a road mobile Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, moreover, brings into sight the day

when North Korea could threaten the United States itself with nuclear attack, a prospect that will further imperil stability

in the region.¶ More broadly, the rise of China – and especially its rapid and opaque military build-up – combined with its increasing

assertiveness in regional disputes is troubling to the United States and its allies and partners across the region. Particularly relevant to the US military presence in the western Pacific is the development of Beijing’s anti-access and area denial capabilities, including the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, more capable anti-ship cruise missiles, attack submarines, attack aircraft, smart mines, torpedoes, and other assets.¶

While Beijing remains a constructive contributor on a range of matters, these capabilities will give China the growing power to deny the

United States the ability to operate effectively in the western Pacific, and thus the potential to undermine the US-guaranteed security substructure that has defined littoral East Asia since World War II. Even if China says today it won’t exploit this growing capability, who can tell what tomorrow or the next day will bring?¶ Naturally, US efforts to build up forces in the western Pacific in response to future Chinese force improvements must be coupled with efforts to engage Beijing as a responsible stakeholder; indeed, a strengthened but

appropriately restrained military posture will enable rather than detract from such engagement. ¶ In short, the United States must increase its involvement in East Asia rather than decrease it . Simply maintaining the military balance in

the western Pacific will, however, involve substantial investments to improve US capabilities. It will also require augmented contributions to the common defence by US allies that have long enjoyed low defence budgets under the US security umbrella.

This won’t be cheap , for these requirements can’t be met simply by incremental additions to the existing posture, but will have to

include advances in air, naval, space, cyber, and other expensive high-tech capabilities.¶ Yet such efforts are vital, for East Asia represents the economic future , and it s strategic developments will determine which country or countries

set the international rules that shape that economic future. Conversely, US interventions in the Middle East and, to a lesser degree, in south-eastern Europe have been driven by far more ambitious and aspirational conceptions

of the national interest, encompassing the proposition that failing or illiberally governed peripheral states

can contribute to an instability that nurtures terrorism and impedes economic growth. Regardless of whether this proposition is

true, the effort is rightly seen by the new political tide not to be worth the benefits gained . Moreover, the United States can

scale (and has scaled) back nation-building plans in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans without undermining its vital interests in ensuring the free flow of oil and in preventing terrorism.¶ The lesson to be drawn from recent years is not, then, that the United States should scale back or shun overseas commitments as such, but rather that we must be more discriminating in making and acting upon them. A total US unwillingness to intervene would pull the rug out from under the US-led structure, leaving the international system prey to disorder at the least, and at worst

to chaos or dominance by others who could not be counted on to look out for US interests.¶ We need to focus on making the right interventions, not forswearing them completely. In practice, this means a more substantial focus on East Asia

and the serious security challenges there, and less emphasis on the Middle East. ¶ This isn’t to say that the United States should be unwilling to intervene in the Middle East. Rather, it is to say that our interventions there should be more tightly connected to concrete

objectives such as protecting the free flow of oil from the region, preventing terrorist attacks against the United States and its

allies, and forestalling or, if necessary, containing nuclear proliferation as opposed to the more idealistic aspirations to transform

the region’s societies. ¶ These more concrete objectives can be better met by the more judicious and economical use of our military power. More broadly, however, it means a shift in US emphasis away from the greater Middle East toward the Asia-Pacific region, which dwarfs the former in economic and military potential and in the

dynamism of its societies. The Asia-Pacific region, with its hard-charging economies and growing presence on the global stage, is where the future of the international security and economic system will be set, and it is there that Washington

needs to focus its attention, especially in light of rising regional security challenges. ¶ In light of US budgetary pressures , including

the hundreds of billions in ‘security’ related money to be cut as part of the debt ceiling deal, it’s doubly important that US security dollars be allocated to the most pressing tasks – shoring up the US position in the most important region of the

world, the Asia -Pacific . It will also require restraint in expenditure on those challenges and regions that don’t touch so directly on the future of US security and prosperity. ¶ As Americans debate the proper US global role in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and Iraq and Afghanistan, they would do well to direct their ire not at overseas commitments and

intervention as such, but rather at those not tied to core US interests and the sustainment and adaptation of the ‘liberal empire’ that we have constructed and maintained since World War II.¶ Defenders of our important overseas links and activities should clearly distinguish their cause from the hyperactive and barely restrained approach represented by those who, unsatisfied with seeing the United States tied down in three

Middle Eastern countries, seek intervention in yet more, such as Syria. Indeed, those who refuse to scale back US interventions in the Middle East or call for still more are directly contributing to the weak ening of US commitments in East Asia, given strategic developments in the region and a sharply constrained budgetary environment in Washington.¶ We can no longer afford, either strategically or financially, to

squander our power in unnecessary and ill-advised interventions and nation-building efforts. The ability and will to intervene is too important to be so wasted.

1NC CP 2Text: The United States should legalize the placing of bets by citizens of the United States on any website not based in the United States that agrees to meet standards set by self-regulating industry entities, and subscribes to an international dispute resolution agreement. The United States should legalize the transmission of bets to these operators by relevant financial entities.

Online gambling occurs at the location where the operator providing the service has physical infrastructure --- legalizing online gambling in the United States means allowing both the placing of bets and the reception of those bets by operators based in the U.S. Bernhard Maier, March 2010. LLB (Hons) 2008 Southampton University, LLM (Distinction) 2009 University College London. “How Has the Law Attempted to Tackle the Borderless Nature of the Internet?” International Journal of Law and Information Technology 18.2, p. 142-175.

In Britain, the Gambling Act 2005 has introduced a licensing scheme using a connecting factor similar to that adopted

by article 4(1)(c) of the Data Protection Directive. Essentially, the Act makes licensing for providers of gambling facilities in accordance with its provisions compulsory171. However, as for the provision of facilities for remote172 gambling, section 36(3) states that the licensing scheme shall only apply ‘if at least one piece of equipment used in the provision of the facilities is situated in Great Britain .’173 In other words,

even though providers established in Britain will be subject to the licensing requirement when offering their services to customers abroad, providers established in a different jurisdiction will only be caught by the regime if there is a physical link with the territory .

The personal computer of a customer taking advantage of a gambling website whose provider is physically established abroad is explicitly excluded from constituting such a link.174 Effectively, this means

that where there is no physical connection with Great Britain apart from the website being available to customers on British soil, the government has decided to defer regulation of these activities to the jurisdiction in which the provider is physically established.

Unfortunately, there is ambiguity concerning this deference within the wording of the Act itself. The Explanatory Notes to the Draft Bill explained that ‘a person providing gambling by means of remote communication, who has no relevant equipment within Great Britain, will not fall within the scope of the draft Bill or any of its provisions, even if people within Great Britain can receive the gambling he is providing.’175 As Kohl points out176, this assertion is inconsistent with the wording of the Act as section 36(3) itself states that it is the licensing requirement enunciated in section 33 that only applies to the provision of facilities for remote gambling if at least one piece of equipment is situated in Great Britain. Also, section 46(1) makes it an offence to invite, cause or permit a child or young person to gamble177 and the wording used suggests that the section applies to domestic and foreign providers alike. Following the narrow interpretation of section 36(3), one must presume that a provider physically established abroad would be committing an offence by providing a website accessible on British territory allowing a child or young person to gamble or even advertising on a site known to be frequently visited by minors.

5.4 U.S. Law

Instead of attempting to regulate online gambling, the U.S. has taken an approach of outright prohibition.178 The three main criminal statutes having this effect before 2006 were the Wire Act of 1961, the Travel Act and the Illegal Gambling Business Act.179 In October 2006, a further controversial180 federal statute was enacted which was specifically aimed at limiting ‘U.S. access to Internet gambling sites hosted on offshore servers.’181 To accomplish this goal, it effectively prevents ‘Internet gambling businesses from accepting credit, electronic funds transfers, checks, or drafts from U.S. Internet gamblers [and] holds financial institutions responsible that knowingly act as intermediate agents between the Internet gaming business and gamblers.’182

As the above provisions then outline, it is very difficult to legally supply online gambling services to U.S. citizens on U.S. territory via the Internet. Returning to the principle identified in Chapter II, this can certainly, to some extent, be described as an act of regulatory overreaching, only this time applied in a quite different context. Effectively prohibiting any form of online gambling to reach U.S. territory subjects every provider in the world to U.S. law, provided it has customers on U.S. soil amongst its clientele. Even though there have been numerous183 high profile arrests of individuals related to the provision of offshore gambling services, it appears that at this stage in time the ‘small amount of federal case law […] is not sufficient to form a comprehensive pattern’184 regarding the prosecution of foreign providers.

Furthermore, it is essential to underline that it is an established principle of international law that ‘failing the existence of a permissive rule to the contrary [a state] may not exercise its power in any form on the territory of another state.’185 However, international law does not prohibit ‘a state from exercising jurisdiction in its own territory, in respect of a case which relates to acts which have taken place abroad.’186 Accordingly, there is the possibility of the U.S. legitimately enforcing their criminal law by prosecuting individuals responsible for enterprises making available online gambling facilities on U.S. territory if these persons enter American sovereign territory. Given the economic and political might of the U.S., it appears187 that many major gambling providers have chosen to implement steps so as to avoid U.S. customers and the liability associated with them.

The net result of the prohibition is therefore the construction of artificial borders through regulation drafted to prevent online gambling services from abroad to reach U.S. customers. On the surface, this is justified with altruistic motives such as the protection of minors. However, the real motivation behind the measures undoubtedly is the protection of tax revenues and the traditional gambling industry from the competition posed by this new form of borderless entertainment.

U.S. gambling law has also had severe detrimental effects on other economies seeking to offer their services to customers in America. In the trade dispute brought against the U.S. before the World Trade Organization, the small Caribbean island state Antigua alleged ‘that U.S. efforts to prohibit Internet gambling, such as laws criminalizing the taking of offshore bets, caused the decline of [Antigua’s] gambling industry’188and that this was contrary to commitments of the U.S. under the General Agreement on Trade and Services (GATS).189 After a first ruling in Antigua's favour190, an appeal panel confirmed that indeed some of the U.S. gambling laws constituted disguised restrictions on trade and were therefore inconsistent with WTO commitments.191 Interestingly, the panel also rejected the U.S. contention that the measures in question fell under one of the exemptions of the treaty because even though they were on their surface necessary to protect public morals, they did not apply to national and foreign providers alike.192 Effectively, the U.S. could not justify why in certain circumstances local providers could offer remote gambling services when Antiguan companies were not allowed to do so. Because of the U.S. failure to ensure full compliance with the panel findings, the dispute between the two countries continues until the day.193

Concluding, it seems that one can sympathise with the argument that the protection of public morals should not be capable of being overridden by international trade commitments. On the other hand, where this protection is merely held out to distract from the ulterior motive of protecting the national economy in the form of tax revenues, international bodies such as the WTO should not be hesitant to remind the U.S. that it, after all, is the biggest proponent of the concept of capitalistic free exchange.194

5.5 Conclusion

From this brief analysis it can be seen that there are a number of different regulatory approaches to gambling, each of which has its merits and demerits. The EU decision to exclude gambling from the country of origin approach in the E-Commerce Directive was taken before the advent of the commercial Internet as we know it today and its adequacy in the light of modern technology can certainly be challenged. However, given the complexity of the different national legal systems based on different moral but also economic arguments, it remains questionable whether adopting a country of origin approach such as the one to be found in the ECD would be workable in practice. The approach adopted by the UK, namely to make licensing applicable to remote gambling providers only if they have a physical link with the territory on its surface certainly seems a wise one to take. After all, it implicitly acknowledges that regulation of providers established abroad is at best utopian. Nevertheless, as can be seen from the inconsistencies in the wording, despite the initial deference this concept too seeks to retain its ultimate control over harmful content having effects on sovereign territory. Having drawn up only very few of the countless problems involved in the U.S. prohibition of online gambling, one could easily see that erecting artificial borders through regulation to tackle the Internet's ubiquitous and seamless nature does not make for a viable long-term solution.

CHAPTER VI

6 Analysis – Reflection

Having looked at various areas in which the law has attempted to tackle the borderless nature of the Internet, a variety of common themes can be extracted. Jurisdiction has been allocated to and exercised by the forum of the country of origin, in most contexts this place being the location of establishment. Also, the physical location of equipment used for a given activity has been used as a connecting factor. Furthermore, the place envisaged or targeted by actions has been emphasised. In addition, reference has been made to localities in which material was accessed or, for the purposes of the relevant law ‘published.’ Finally, the territory on which an act produced its effects has also been vested with jurisdiction over the perpetrators of the relevant act. Perhaps the most controversial concept illustrated was the erection of ‘artificial’ borders through regulation. In the case of gambling, these borders amount to trade barriers which deter and prevent the free flow of information and thereby obstruct the development of cross-border commerce and wholly undermine the borderless nature of the Internet. Each of the above concepts has its merits and demerits and must be visualised in the context of its respective underlying policy objective.

6.1 Country of Origin

Given that the country of origin model has been utilised in ways only subtly differing from each other, it comes as no surprise that its meaning and scope have troubled commentators.195 Ideally, as the Electronic Commerce Directive has done, the concept makes certain activities subject to the law in which the persons or entities responsible are established. The gist of this notion is that its effectiveness and desirability really depend on harmonisation.196 Only if the substantive laws of the country in which the perpetrator of whatever activity is physically located assumes jurisdiction are broadly equivalent197 to the laws of the place in which the activity had its effect can adverse consequences on the rights and interests of the latter's residents and industry be prevented.198

Although not a rule for determining the forum as such, the single publication rule to be found in American jurisprudence is also an interesting concept worth mentioning here. On an inter-state level, it allows potential claims in a number of states to be entrusted to only one jurisdiction; the place where the “global” cause of action arises. Despite seemingly practical on a national level, the notion does not appear to be a desirable one for the implementation on a global scale given the significant differences in national substantive laws around the world. Most likely, it will therefore remain to be a peculiarity of multi-jurisdictional defamation cases within the US alone.

One can at this stage contrast the European system established by the combined effect of Article 5(3) of the Brussels Regulation and the Shevillruling. Here, even though there is an incentive for the plaintiff to sue in the Member State in which the defendant is established, an alternative route is provided in which the plaintiff can sue in the place where harm was done to his or her reputation for the damage done within that forum. Limited exclusively to the EU, this rule has its foundations in reciprocity. Judgments rendered in one European jurisdiction will be recognised and enforced in any other European jurisdiction without the need to resort to complicated formal procedures. Such reciprocity being absent on the international plane, the usefulness of this particular mechanism is therefore limited to dealing with the borderless nature of the Internet within the borders of the European Union.

As regards data protection and privacy, within the EU both article 29(6) and article 4(1)(a) have the effect of allocating jurisdiction to the courts of the forum in which the data controller is established. This, within Europe has the advantage of preventing a multiplicity of suits as well as to give established data controllers certainty as to their liability. No such mechanism regarding the allocation of jurisdiction existing199 between European and other fora, other concepts of determining jurisdiction had to be found.

6.1.1 Location of equipment

The next concept makes the location of the processing equipment used 200 the decisive connection to allocate jurisdiction. In the context of data protection, it was aimed at protecting individuals within the European Union

from the misuse of their data by controllers established outside the Community. Viewing cookies and their like as qualifying, this connection became very broad in scope and raised familiar issues such as unpredictability, liability under a multitude of legal systems and the most obvious one, enforcement. The additional provision prohibiting data exports into countries not deemed to provide adequate protection deviates from a pure concept of allocating jurisdiction according to the location of the equipment. Even though their interplay is not entirely certain, the latter's structure on its surface provides a mechanism for artificially erecting borders in cyberspace so as to prevent data from illegitimately being extracted from within the Community.

In the context of online gambling, using the connecting factor equipment was aimed at giving effect to the British policy angle that the regulated activity is taking place where the operator is based.201 The legislation treats the location of equipment for the provision of gambling services as decisive for the application of the licensing requirement and thus jurisdiction. However, if that link with the territory is absent, the regime defers regulation to the country where the provider is established. In other words, the concept again includes elements of a nuanced country of origin approach. Excluding from this deference the protection of minors, the regulation also adds the connecting factor of an effect had within the territory as theoretically enabling the courts of the forum to exercise jurisdiction over the foreign provider so as to protect its most vulnerable citizens.

Allowing foreign operators with self-regulated certification and dispute resolution solves.Katherine A. Valasek, 2007. B.A., Political Science, Drew University; J.D. Candidate, Michigan State University College of Law, 2008. “WINNING THE JACKPOT: A FRAMEWORK FOR SUCCESSFUL INTERNATIONAL REGULATION OF ONLINE GAMBLING AND THE VALUE OF THE SELF-REGULATING ENTITIES,” Michigan State Law Review, 2007 MICH. ST. L. REV. 753, http://msulawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Valasek.pdf.

The U nited S tates could then take a step no other country has taken. It could allow gambling on any international website that agrees to meet the standards established by the United States and the self- regulating entities, and subscribes to an international dispute resolution agreement. Then, much like the

ILO’s monitoring of labor standards in Cambodia, the selfregulating entities should monitor the websites to ensure that they are meet- ing the now internationally established standards. 216 Like the standards

established in Cambodia, certification should be voluntary and there should be no formal punishment for failure to meet the standards, save a revocation of certification. 217 Compliance and certification would bring to international websites the benefit of the United States Internet gambling market .

CONCLUSION

Regulating Internet gambling is possible as evidenced by the increased number of nations beginning to do so. The creation of self-regulating entities within the Internet gambling community shows the desire of Internet gambling sites to become legitimate business entities. The knowledge these entities have and the progress they have made in developing standards should be used when creating a regulatory scheme. However, selfregulating entities alone are insufficient to create effective regulation, as they have no mechanism for enforcing compliance. The United States government should use existing standards to begin regulating, rather than prohibiting, Internet gambling. The federal government should establish criteria for certification based on the self-regulating entities’ standards and allow United States citizens to gamble on Internet sites that meet these standards and are certified by these self-regulating entities.

Industry regulation, however, needs to go further than domestic regulation within the United States or any other country.

Unfortunately, the United States is not eager to join the rest of the international community in accepting Internet gambling as a legitimate business. As such, countries continue to create separate methods of regulating Internet gambling, leaving the jurisdictional problems on Internet gambling unsolved, if not more complicated.

Instead, the United States should help establish a cohesive, crossjurisdictional regulatory scheme, and open the door to legal,

international gambling. Additionally, the U nited S tates should expand the definition of legal Internet gambling to include any international site that meets the minimum American standards , is certified by the self-regulating entities, and agrees to international criteria for dispute resolution.

UK model proves the CP solves trade --- can be harsher against domestic providers.Lorraine Harrington, 2007. Candidate for J.D., 2008, University of Arizona, James E. Rogers College of Law; B.S. Mathematics, 2005, University of Nevada, Reno. “LOADED DICE: DO NATIONAL INTERNET GAMING STATUTES VIOLATE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION FAIR TRADE ACCESS STANDARDS?” Arizona Journal of International & Comparative Law 24.3, http://www.arizonajournal.org/ajicl/archive/AJICL2007/5.%20Harrington%20Text%209x6.pdf.

The U.K. Gambling Act 2005 sets higher regulatory standards for local service providers . 384 To obtain a remote operating license, a local provider must satisfy all mandatory conditions imposed by governmental regulations, and any individual license conditions imposed by the Gambling Commission. 385 In contrast, all a foreign service operator has to do to avoid regulatory requirements is not locate his remote gambling equipment 386 within U.K.-controlled territory. 387 There are no grounds upon which a foreign service provider would be able to show lack of fair market access in comparison to a local provider.

V. CONCLUSION

When determining if they are in compliance with the WTO requirements of fair-market access for foreign service providers, WTO Members should evaluate not only their federal regulations, but any legislation passed by state or local authorities that impacts online gambling activities. Even if a Member plans to raise a defensive public morals claim under Article XVI, the Member must first show that equal market access was granted to all gambling service providers.

Countries that do not currently provide the same level of access to local and foreign online gambling service providers have several options when deciding how to achieve compliance. They can expand coverage to permit foreign providers to enter the market, restrict the market so that local providers can no longer provide services, or remove the market entirely by limiting gambling activities to nonInternet channels. Or, as shown by the United States’ actions in the past year, they may elect to remain noncompliant and instead pay trade sanctions to the petitioner. While this may be economically feasible when the noncompliant country is significantly larger than the petitioner, the number of countries offering online gambling services suggests that this is not a viable long-term solution.

Legalization of U.S. operators would crush the European market.Siddiqi 10, Ishaq, Wall Street Journal Financial Markets Analyst, 9/20/10, “Online Gambling Awaits U.S. Move,” http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB20001424052748704858304575497350423397366, Accessed 7/22/14

The closure of the U.S. online-gambling market highlighted the regulatory and legal risk of the online-gaming industry for many investors. PartyGaming's

shares fell nearly 70% when it exited the U.S. market after the gambling act passed. But online-gambling operators outside the U.S. reoriented themselves to focus on non-U.S. markets.¶ That move

has paid off. In recent weeks, Ireland's PaddyPower PLS.DB +0.77% PLC and the U.K.'s William Hill WMH.LN +1.11% PLC said strong World Cup

gambling revenue helped sustain business in the face of the economic downturn.¶ One risk in U.S. legalization for European online-gambling operations would be the likely entry into the online market by Las Vegas casino behmoths. Las Vegas Sands LVS +2.30% (market

value $19 billion), Wynn Resorts WYNN +2.36% ($10 billion) and MGM Resorts ($4 billion) all dwarf

the main European players. ¶ "Although this could be good for foreign players, it would mean creditable

[domestic] competitors will appear overnight," which would make it tougher for foreign

players to get their foot in the market, said Daniel Pasini, portfolio manager of ACPI Investment Managers¶ Richard

Greenwood, a fund manager at Bedlam Asset Management, believes the American market will eventually open up, because online gambling is both a global trend and an "easy voluntary tax generator in harsh fiscal times."¶ Analyst Simon Davies at Collins Stewart said Italy's Lottomatica would benefit if online gambling were legalized in the U.S., due to its acquisition of Gtech, a U.S. gambling company.¶ "The PartyGaming/Bwin

entity will also benefit" due to size and product offerings, Mr. Davies said. "In order for other European players to benefit from U.S. legislation, they would need to offer business- to-business software to U.S. companies via joint ventures. It would be

expensive to enter the U.S. market, so operators would have to merge in order to benefit."

Key to Europe’s Economy – Britain's leading the rest of Europe.Pfanner 10, Eric, Senior corporate correspondent Wall Street Journal, 7/27/10, “Europe Unleashes Online Gambling to Fill Coffers,” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/28/technology/28eurogamble.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&, Accessed 7/25/14

PARIS — Across Europe, cash-strapped governments looking for ways to reduce

yawning budget gaps are embracing online gambling , a source of revenue they once viewed

with wary skepticism.¶ While U.S. opposition to Internet betting has centered on concerns about gambling addiction, European politicians previously objected for a different reason: liberalizing the practice, they feared, would undermine state-sponsored lottery monopolies and gambling operators.¶ But more and more gamblers are spurning land-based casinos

anyway, and logging on to Internet poker and sports betting sites — many of them based in places that are out of reach of tax collectors. As public finances worsen, governments are trying to bring this once-shadowy

business into the mainstream of Europe’s digital economy, where it can be regulated

and taxed. ¶ “What’s happened is a realization that you can’t uninvent the Internet,” said David Trunkfield, a consultant at

PricewaterhouseCoopers. “People are gaming online. You either try to regulate and tax it, or people

are going to go to the offshore operators, where you don’t get any revenue.”¶ France, which only four

years ago jailed the top executives of an Austrian Internet gambling company, Bwin, when they visited France, last month permitted private companies like Bwin to start taking bets online, in competition with publicly owned gambling

sites. Denmark approved legislation in June authorizing a similar shift. Greece plans within weeks to introduce a bill legalizing online gambling, which is currently banned.¶

Others considering liberalization include Switzerland, Spain and Germany. They are all

following Britain , which in 2005 became the first big country in Europe to confer respectability on the business, and Italy,

which has been phasing in legalized Internet betting over the past three years.¶ Europe has grown into the biggest online gambling market in the world, accounting for an estimated $12.5 billion of the industry’s $ 29.3 billion total revenue this year, according to H2 Gambling

Capital, a consulting firm. If all of that activity were taxed, it could potentially raise billions every year, though the exact amount is hard to predict, given uncertainty over the tax rates that might be applied.¶ The growth online contrasts with the state of the old-fashioned casino business in many European countries. In France, for instance, land-based casinos have suffered double-digit revenue declines in recent years. In Britain, plans for a giant, Las Vegas-style casino in Manchester were scrapped two years ago, and even the country’s

ubiquitous betting shops have started to suffer.¶ In other big gambling markets like the United States

and China, online betting is also widely practiced, though officially banned. A U.S. law banning financial transactions related to online gambling, which was passed in 2006, took full effect this year.

European economic collapse causes multiple scenarios of global war.Wright 12, Thomas, fellow with the Managing Global Order at the Brookings Institution, Summer 2012, “What if Europe Fails?” The Washington Quarterly, http://csis.org/files/publication/twq12SummerWright.pdf, Accessed 7/25/14

Yet, verbal warnings from nervous leaders and economists aside, there has been remarkably little analysis of what the end of European integration might mean for Europe and the rest of the world. This article does not predict that failure will occur it only seeks to explain the geopolitical

implications if it does. The severity and trajectory of the crisis since 2008 suggest that failure is a high-

impact event with a non-trivial probability. It may not occur, but it certainly merits serious analysis. Failure is widely

seen as an imminent danger.¶ Would the failure of the Euro really mean the beginning of the end of democracy in Europe? Could the global economy survive without a vibrant European economy? What would European architecture look like after the end of European integration? What are the implications for

the United States, China, and the Middle East? Since the international order has been primarily a Western

construction, with Europe as a key pillar, would the disintegration of the European Union or

the Eurozone have lasting and deleterious effects on world politics in the coming decade? ¶ Thinking through and prioritizing the consequences of a failed Europe yield five of the utmost importance.

First, the most immediate casualty of the failure of the European project would be the global economy. A disorderly collapse (as opposed to an orderly failure, which will

be explained shortly) would probably trigger a new depression and could lead to the unraveling of economic integration as countries introduce protectionist measures to limit the contagion effects of a collapse. Bare survival would

drag down Europe’s economy and would generate increasing and dangerous levels of volatility in the international economic order. ¶ Second, the geopolitical consequences of an economic crisis depend not

just on the severity of the crisis but also the geopolitical climate in which it occurs. Europe’s geopolitical climate is as healthy as can be reasonably expected. This would prevent a simple repeat of the 1930s in Europe, which has been

one of the more alarming predictions from some observers, although certain new and fragile democracies in Europe might come under pressure. ¶ Third, failure would cement Germany’s rise as the leading country in Europe and as an indispensable hub in the European Union and Eurozone, if they continue to exist, but anti-Germanism would become a more potent force in politics on the European periphery. ¶ Fourth, economic downturn as a result of disintegration would undermine political authority in those parts of the world

where the legitimacy of governments is shallow, and it would exacerbate international tensions where the geopolitical climate is relatively malign. The places most at risk are the Middle East and China. ¶ Fifth, disintegration would weaken Europe on the world stage– it would severely damage the transatlantic alliance, both by sapping its resources and by diverting Europe’s

attention to its internal crisis– and would, finally, undermine the multilateral order. ¶ Taking these five implications in their totality, one thing is clear. Failure will badly damage Europe and the international order, but some types of failure–most notably a disorderly collapse–are worse than others.

Currently, the pain is concentrated on the so-called European periphery (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Ireland). Disorderly collapse would affect all European countries, as well as North America and East Asia. If a solution to the Eurocrisis is perceived as beyond reach, leaders of the major powers will shift their priorities to managing failure in order to contain its effects. This will be strenuously resisted on the periphery, which is already experiencing extremely high levels of

pain and does not want to accept the permanence of the status quo. Consequently, their electorates will become more risk-acceptant and will pressure Germany and other core member states to accommodate them through financial transfers and assistance in exchange for not deliberately

triggering a break-up. This bitter split will divide and largely define a failing Europe. Absent movement toward a solution, EU politics is about to take an ugly turn.

Laundering

1NC LaunderingOther countries make laundering inevitable.Stutz 14, Howard, 4/28, Las Vegas Review Journal, http://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/report-s-author-says-both-sides-misrepresent-study-web-gambling-money, Accessed 6/9/14

The author of a new report on the use of Internet gaming for money laundering activities said Monday the findings of the study have been misrepresented by both anti-online wagering activists and pro-Web gaming backers. The white paper — “Jackpot! Money Laundering Through Online Gambling” — was released last week by cyber security firm McAfee, which

supplies Internet safety software for businesses and home computers. The paper immediately fueled heated rhetoric over its conclusions. “I feel like I kicked a hornets’ nest,” Raj Samani, chief technology officer of McAfee and lead author of the

report, said in a phone interview from his offices in London. “Unfortunately, there has been some angry debate over the report. The reality is the most of (the discussions) are irrelevant to the findings.” Samani and his co-

authors said online gaming was “the most prominent method” used by cybercriminals to launder money. McAfee highlighted six different efforts jurisdictions could take to halt the activity. “Greater collaboration between law enforcement agencies to target unlicensed gambling sites is required, particularly with those that operate outside the visible Internet,” the

report stated. In an interview, Samani said cybercriminals will attempt to launder money through several means, with online gaming being a popular source. However, Samani said

the small U.S. -based regulated Internet gaming operations “are just a drop of water

in the ocean” when looking at the realm of the online wagering universe. Cybercriminals in the U.S., he said,

look to unregulated websites in foreign jurisdictions, to launder money. “In any jurisdiction criminals can circumvent any obstacle used to block their access,” Samani said. “You put in regulations, the criminals will find another vehicle.” Samani said the report was written as a follow-up to a McAfee study on cyber crime that was produced a year ago. The findings were seized upon by both opponents and proponents of legalized Internet gaming in U.S. Three states — Nevada, New Jersey and Delaware — have laws that legalize forms of Internet wagering. Some 10 states are exploring the idea. Meanwhile, in Congress there two competing bills that would legalize and regulate Internet gaming and an opposing bill that would outlaw the activity. In a statement Monday, the Coalition to Stop Internet Gaming, which is funded by Las Vegas Sands Corp. Chairman Sheldon Adelson, said the McAfee report backed up previous warnings by the Federal Bureau of Investigation that Internet gambling will lead to money laundering by terrorists and other criminal groups. “In the world that proponents of Internet gambling want to impose on the rest of us, there will be 50 different laws regulating Internet gambling sites, and innocent Americans could find themselves gambling with dangerous criminals or terrorists and unknowingly help them move money,” the coalition said in a statement. Alison Harden, a spokeswoman for the Coalition for Consumer and Online Protection, which is funded by MGM Resorts International, Caesars Entertainment Corp, and the American Gaming Association, said the McAfee study showed banning Internet wagering would lead to additional unregulated websites. “(The authors) repeatedly argue that licensed sites provide more protection for Americans, and that unlicensed black market sites present the biggest concern for criminal activity,” Harden said in an emailed statement. “In fact, they say that, ‘requiring licenses for gambling operators is an important approach,’ in dealing with the problem.” Samani said he spoke with representatives of both sides of the issue after the report was released, but he refused to debate publicly with either party. “You can’t make an argument in 140 characters,” Samani said in reference to several Twitter feuds that were fueled by the report. “We didn’t have any skin in the game, so to speak. To be fair, we saw both sides of the story.” While Samani said regulated Internet gaming can help stem some of the illegal activity, the report said, “For every licensed online gambling site, there could be up to nine unlicensed online gambling sites.” Gaming Control Board Chairman A.G. Burnett read the report and said Monday he disagreed with one finding concerning money launderers using Bitcoin and other online currencies. “Nevada does not allow the use of crypto currencies when it comes to gaming,” Burnett said. He said

Nevada addressed money laundering issues when the state drafted its online gaming regulations. “The standards created are as tough or tougher than the standards for land-based operators,” Burnett said.

“We have minimized the risk by very rigorous auditing, accounting and enforcement standards.” Samani said money launderers are more likely to avoid American sites because of the small number of Internet locations.

Recent Congressional bill massively amped efforts to fight money laundering.Chon 13, Gina, U.S. Regulatory Correspondent for Financial Times, 10/23/13, “US Congress moves to tighten money laundering laws,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/10f997ea-3bfd-11e3-9851-00144feab7de.html#axzz3AinOXzQj, Accessed 8/18/14

Efforts to fight money laundering and empty shell companies would be strengthened by two bills introduced in the US Congress on Wednesday, by giving federal regulators enhanced powers to hold bank executives personally responsible for misdeeds. ¶ The move in the US House of Representatives comes after banks had to pay at least $5bn in fines and settlements to resolve allegations of laundering money for drug cartels, Iranian clients and the Cuban government. However, no bank executives have been indicted in those cases.¶

Tackling shadowy shell companies was also on the agenda of the G8 meeting of the world’s largest economies in June. British prime minister David Cameron in particular pushed for the true beneficial ownership of companies to be revealed through registries, which would crack down on companies trying to evade taxes.¶ In the US, senators pointed to Apple’s tax practices as a reason why loopholes needed to be eliminated. In May, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations issued a report on Apple, saying the company avoided paying taxes on $44bn in income by using by using a “complex web of offshore entities”.¶ Apple denied those claims, arguing

that it is probably the largest corporate taxpayer in the US and that its international affiliates are not “shell companies”.¶ The House bill on shell companies would require the true ownership of a firm be identified when it is incorporated . The White House said earlier this year that it would push for such legislation as part of its G8 pledge. In August, the Senate introduced a similar measure that requires companies to disclose their ultimate or real owners when the firm is established. It also mandates that those companies

keep the ownership information up to date.¶ In addition to holding bank executives personally responsible, the House anti-money laundering

bill backed by representatives Maxine Waters and Carolyn Maloney gives authorities more power to ban individuals from the industry if they violate anti-money laundering laws . ¶ It also raises the cap on the maximum prison term for individuals convicted of evading an anti-money laundering programme from five years to 20 years. The legislation requires the justice department to explain to Congress decisions that lead to monetary settlements instead of

pursuing prison terms.¶ The bill would also enhance the authority of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, giving it civil litigation authority instead of having to rely on the justice department to pursue legal prosecution.¶

Corporate governance standards would also be strengthened by requiring senior bank management to certify receipt of compliance reports that identify deficiencies. Regulators would have to issue rules prohibiting pay structures that jeopardise compliance, and banks must include clawback compensation provisions for legal violations.

Plan causes laundering – even legalized gaming can be used Thackston and Grinols 13, James: Florida-based independent software engineer with a background in the aerospace, manufacturing and energy industries, Earl: distinguished professor of economics at Baylor University, former senior economist for the President's Council of Economic Advisers, and author of Gambling In America: Costs and Benefits, “Column: Online gambling is a strategic national threat,” http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/columns/column-online-gambling-is-a-strategic-national-threat/2151317, Accessed 7/28/14

Online gambling, now operating from U.S.-based websites, is the new face of gambling expansion. We should not be

naive, however. Beyond the known social costs of gambling, there is now the threat from online criminal activity, money laundering and, potentially, even al-Qaida funding. What is happening?¶ Pandora's box was unwittingly opened by the Justice Department in a December 2011 opinion that — erroneously, we believe —

declared that the Wire Act of 1961 applies solely to sports betting, and thus appearing to open the door to other online gambling.¶ Expansion followed. Nevada now has two online poker sites operating; Delaware launched its gambling website with blackjack,

roulette, slots and poker on Oct. 31; and New Jersey will launch on Nov. 21.¶ Remote gambling is fundamentally different from brick-and-mortar casino gambling because the website operator never has complete control. Using technology undetectable to website operators and their regulators, it is possible for gamblers to play games

from physical locations that are not what they seem. We know, because we have done it. ¶ Recently,

House Energy and Commerce Committee staff and others in the Capitol Hill office of U.S. Rep. Gregg Harper, R-Miss.,

witnessed a demonstration in which a single remote computer took control of two computers and used them as alias machines to play poker online. The Harper demonstration showed the tech nology and techniques that terror and crime organizations could use to operate untraceable money laundering built on a highly liquid legalized online poker industry — just the environment that will result from the spread of poker online. One of us set up a website — undetectablelaundering.com — to help communicate the

problem to a broader audience.¶ No one should doubt the ability of criminals to exploit the inherent weakness in online gambling. A drug cartel could arrange for buyers' machines to be remotely linked and lose to the aliased cartel machines. Drug buyers would not even need to play from their own machines. Illegal drug money would appear to be legal online winnings. ¶ A single poker game takes just a few hours to transfer $5 million as was recently demonstrated — legally — by American player Brian Hastings with his Swedish competitor half a world away. An established al-Qaida poker network could extract from the United

States enough untraceable money in six days to fund an operation like the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center.¶

The threat is real. Last month a Texas lawyer was found guilty of trying to launder $ 600 million in drug money for a Mexican cartel. Caesar's Entertainment is currently under investigation by the Justice Department and IRS, accused of money laundering and Bank Secrecy Act violations.¶ In December 2012, the FBI's Tampa field office asked us to take down the website explaining the threat. We complied. This May, special agents at FBI headquarters in Washington responsible for enforcing the Wire Act and all

other federal gambling laws were briefed on the vulnerability. In July, a Senate Commerce Committee hearing seemed to reinforce concerns.

Rep. C.W. Bill Young wrote a letter of concern to FBI director Robert Mueller on Aug. 7.¶ But since then action seems to have stalled. And the threat moves on. ¶ With the passing of Young, we have put the website back up and joined together in hopes of spurring action. Since it remains true that gambling regulations in Nevada, Delaware and New Jersey are no match for determined terrorists and criminals, we feel duty-bound as responsible citizens to ensure knowledge of the threat reaches as many

policymakers as possible.¶ We have proved it is possible to make money laundering undetectable. Gambling should be firmly restricted to stay offline.

AT: CyberCyberwar isn’t an existential threat—best studies proveJason HEALEY, Director of the Cyber Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council, 13 [“No, Cyberwarfare Isn't as Dangerous as Nuclear War,” March 20, 2013, www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/03/20/cyber-attacks-not-yet-an-existential-threat-to-the-us]

America does not face an existential cyberthreat today, despite recent warnings . Our cybervulnerabilities are

undoubtedly grave and the threats we face are severe but far from comparable to nuclear war .

The most recent alarms come in a Defense Science Board report on how to make military cybersystems more resilient against advanced threats (in short, Russia or China). It warned that the "cyber threat is serious, with potential consequences similar in some ways to the nuclear threat of the Cold War." Such fears were also expressed by Adm. Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in 2011. He called cyber "The single biggest existential threat that's out there" because "cyber actually more than theoretically, can attack our infrastructure, our financial systems."

While it is true that cyber attacks might do these things, it is also true they have not only never

happened but are far more difficult to accomplish than mainstream thinking believes . The consequences

from cyber threats may be similar in some ways to nuclear, as the Science Board concluded, but mostly, they are incredibly dissimilar.

Eighty years ago, the generals of the U.S. Army Air Corps were sure that their bombers would easily topple other countries and cause their

populations to panic, claims which did not stand up to reality. A study of the 25-year history of cyber conflict, by the Atlantic Council and Cyber Conflict Studies Association, has shown a similar dynamic where the impact of

disruptive cyberattacks has been consistently overestimated .

Rather than theorizing about future cyberwars or extrapolating from today's concerns, the history of cyberconflict that have actually been fought, shows that cyber incidents have so far tended to have effects that are either widespread but fleeting or persistent but narrowly

focused. No attacks , so far, have been both widespread and persistent. There have been no

authenticated cases of anyone dying from a cyber attack. Any widespread disruptions , even the 2007

disruption against Estonia, have been short-lived causing no significant GDP loss.

Moreover, as with conflict in other domains, cyberattacks can take down many targets but keeping them down over time in the face of determined defenses has so far been out of the range of all but the most dangerous adversaries such as Russia and China. Of course, if the United States is in a conflict with those nations, cyber will be the least important of the existential threats policymakers should be worrying

about. Plutonium trumps bytes in a shooting war.

This is not all good news. Policymakers have recognized the problems since at least 1998 with little significant progress. Worse, the threats and

vulnerabilities are getting steadily more worrying. Still, experts have been warning of a cyber Pearl Harbor for 20 of

the 70 years since the actual Pearl Harbor .

The transfer of U.S. trade secrets through Chinese cyber espionage could someday accumulate into an existential threat. But it doesn't seem so seem just yet, with only handwaving estimates of annual losses of 0.1 to 0.5 percent to the total

U.S. GDP of around $15 trillion. That's bad, but it doesn't add up to an existential crisis or "economic cyberwar."

AT: Nuke TerrorNo risk of nuclear terrorTopychkanov 1/25/14 (Pyotr PhD in History, Associate in the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, “Nuclear Terrorism: Bogeyman or Real Threat?”, http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=3045&active_id_11=39#top)

Nuclear terrorism involves using fissile weapons-grade materials: Uranium-235 enriched to over 90% and plutonium-239 with an isotopic purity of at least 94%. According to current estimates, in the five countries that have nuclear weapons, building a nuclear device requires 8kg of plutonium or 25kg of highly-enriched uranium (HEU); although some specialists suggest 4kg to 5kg of plutonium or 16kg of HEU would be sufficient. With 20% enriched uranium, it would take 800kg of material to reach the critical mass needed for a nuclear explosion, which is believed to be technically implausible [3].

Obtaining fissile weapons grade materials is no easy matter for terrorists , chiefly for the following reasons.

Enriching uranium or producing the necessary quantity of plutonium requires scientific and

technological facilities that no terrorist organisation has .

Acquiring the necessary quantities of fissile weapons-grade materials on the black market would

require the relevant supply, which is not currently there (the IAEA receives about 150-200 reports from Member States

each year of fissile materials that are lost, stolen or otherwise out of their control, but, first, most incidents are unrelated to weapons-grade uranium or plutonium and, secondly, in all reported incidents the fissile materials are returned under proper control ).

Should terrorists nevertheless succeed in obtaining the requisite quantity of weapons-grade uranium or plutonium, as a study commissioned in 1977 by US Congress showed, a small group of people who had never had any access to classified information could develop and build a primitive nuclear explosive device [4]. To do so, according to estimates at that time, they would need up to US$ 1 million, a medium-size workshop, at least one specialist who is conversant with the relevant literature, and an engineer.

Today, some solutions are within an easier reach for terrorists compared to the 1970s, largely thanks to information technologies. However,

any active application of such technologies leads to higher risk of detection . Queries regarding nuclear weapons development made using internet browsers can be traced by intelligence services [5].

Importantly, nuclear devices built under such conditions can hardly be expected to be reliable , since

given the lack of specialists , high-precision equipment, and testing capabilities, it would be difficult to

avoid errors during the development or assembly of any such device . In addition, handling major

amounts of cash or sourcing fissile weapons-grade materials in the required quantities would

inevitably put the terrorist cell on the radars of the intelligence services of a number of countries . As a result, having risked substantial amounts of money and possible detection, an organisation planning to commit an act of nuclear terrorism would have to accept that the outcome is uncertain, at best.

AT: Retal

No RetalNo US nuclear retaliationNeely 13—Meggaen Neely, The George Washington University Master of Arts (M.A.), Security Policy Studies 2012—2014 (expected) Baylor University Master of Arts (M.A.), Public Policy and Administration 2010—2012, Richard D. Huff Distinguished Masters Student in Political Science (2012) Baylor University Bachelor of Arts (B.A.), Political Science and Government, Research Assistant, Elliott School at George Washington University, Research Intern, Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Communications Intern at Federation of American Scientists Graduate Assistant at Department of Political Science, Baylor University [March 21, 2013, “Doubting Deterrence of Nuclear Terrorism,” http://csis.org/blog/doubting-deterrence-nuclear-terrorism]

Because of the difficulty of deterring transnational actors, many deterrence advocates shift the focus to deterring state sponsors of nuclear terrorism. The argument applies whether or not the state intended to assist nuclear terrorists. If terrorists obtain a nuclear weapon or fissile

materials from a state, the theory goes, then the United States will track the weapon’s country of origin using nuclear forensics, and retaliate against that country. If this is U.S. policy, advocates predict that states will be deterred from assisting terrorists with their nuclear ambitions. Yet, let’s think about the series of events that would play out if a terrorist organization detonated a weapon in the U nited States. Let’s assume forensics confirmed the weapon’s origin, and let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that country was Pakistan.

Would the United States then retaliate with a nuclear strike? If a nuclear attack occurs within the next four years (a

reasonable length of time for such predictions concerning current international and domestic politics), it seems unlikely . Why? First,

there’s the problem of time . Though nuclear forensics is useful, it takes time to analyze the data and determine the country of origin. Any justified response upon a state sponsor would not be swift. Second,

even if the U nited States proved the country of origin, it would then be difficult to determine that Pakistan willingly and intentionally sponsored nuclear terrorism . If Pakistan did, then nuclear retaliation might be

justified. However, if Pakistan did not, nuclear retaliation over unsecured nuclear materials would be a disproportionate response and potentially further detrimental. Should the United States launch a nuclear strike at Pakistan, Islamabad could see this as an initial hostility by the United States, and respond adversely. An obvious choice, given current tensions in South Asia, is for Pakistan to retaliate against a U.S. nuclear launch on its territory by initiating conflict with India, which could turn nuclear and

increase the exchanges of nuclear weapons. Hence, it seems more likely that, after the international outrage at a

terrorist group’s nuclear detonation, the U nited S tates would attempt to stop the bleeding without a

nuclear strike . Instead, some choices might include deploying forces to track down those that supported the suicide terrorists that detonated the weapon, pressuring Pakistan to exert its sovereignty over fringe regions such as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, and increasing the number of drone strikes in Waziristan. Given the initial attack, such measures might understandably seem more of a concession than the retaliation called for by deterrence models, even more so by the American public. This is not an argument against those technologies associated with nuclear forensics. The United States and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

should continue their development and distribution. Instead, I question the presumed American response that is promulgated by deterrence advocates. By looking at possibilities for a U.S. response to nuclear

terrorism, a situation in which we assume that deterrence has failed, we cast doubt on the likelihood

of a U.S. retaliatory nuclear strike and hence cast doubt on the credibility of a U.S. retaliatory nuclear strike as a deterrent. Would the United States launch a nuclear weapon now unless it was sure of another state’s intentional

sponsorship of nuclear terrorism? Any reasonable doubt of sponsorship might stay the U nited States’ nuclear hand.

Given the opaqueness of countries’ intentions, reasonable doubt over sponsorship is inevitable to

some degree. Other countries are probably aware of U.S. hesitance in response to terrorists’ use of nuclear

weapons. If this thought experiment is true, then the communication required for credible retaliatory strikes under deterrence of nuclear terrorism is missing.

Liberalization

1NCIHA/betting on horse races is the key issue in the WTO dispute.Nelson Rose and Rebecca Bolin, December 2012. Professor of Law, Whittier Law School; Visiting Professor, University of Macau; and Resident Fellow, Yale Law School. “Game On for Internet Gambling: With Federal Approval, States Line Up to Place Their Bets,” Connecticut Law Review 45.2, http://connecticutlawreview.org/files/2013/01/RoseBolin.GameOnforInternetGambling.45Conn.L.Rev_.653.pdf.

One of the ironies of the DOJ Memorandum is that it does nothing to clarify the problem created by Antigua’s successful challenge of American federal law at the WTO. The WTO held that the U.S. was discriminating against Antigua ’s Internet racebooks because Congress enacted the IHA , but there was no comparable International Horseracing Act . In practice, there is actually quite a bit of betting across national borders, including Americans betting on races in Canada and Hong Kong, and Canadians and Mexicans betting on races in the

U.S. But these bets technically do violate the Wire Act, and do not fall under the IHA , which has detailed definitions of what constitutes a “state” for interstate horseracing. 223 The DOJ’s declaration that the Wire Act is limited to cross-border betting on sports and races does nothing to solve the problems created by the WTO decision , since that was based on the Wire Act prohibiting Antigua’s racebooks from taking online bets from America. It should also be noted that the WTO stated, in dicta, that even U.S. state laws violate America’s GATS commitment to accept legal gambling from other countries that signed that treaty. 224 President Bush unilaterally abrogated that treaty commitment, but it is not clear whether he had the power to change the treaties of the United States without Senate approval.

WTO useless - Bali package is false optimism, super powers will always trump, regionalism train is rollingPALO 1 – 2 – 15 The Dollar Business [Bidhu Bhushan Palo, WTO GRAPPLES WITH GROWING CHALLENGES AS IT TURNS 20, https://www.thedollarbusiness.com/wto-grapples-with-growing-challenges-as-it-turns-20/]

He also added that, “Moreover, at our 9th Ministerial Conference in Bali in 2013, we took our first major step forward in updating multilateral

trade rules. The measures agreed in Bali were a real breakthrough for the WTO, and they will provide a significant economic boost. In December 2014 WTO Members came together to recommit to implementing all aspects of the Bali package.”

And that’s where the disappointment lies .

The fact that the WTO arrived at a consensus on the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), hailed as the biggest

breakthrough since its inception by the WTO, after a delay of around six months from the July 31, 2014 deadline, and over a year

after members agreed to adopt it, shows that frustration is something the WTO has to get accustomed to in coming years.

Azevêdo also claimed that the WTO has played a crucial role in strengthening world trade and resolve trade disputes. However, why has it failed to take notice that Pakistan has not granted the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India for 20 years now? And why could it not resolve India’s concerns over food security programmes when the matter was resolved miraculously between India and USA in late 2014?

Azevêdo said that WTO has provided a bulwark against protectionism , but why was it mum when several countries and major economies such as USA, Russia, and EU used trade restrictions as a weapon in 2014 . Why is it quiet over the decline in oil and commodity prices and its impact on global trade?

The truth is that 2014 was a mirror that showed a not so flattering picture of the organisation which boasts of

“all or none” as its hallmark. In 2014, the WTO was , at best, an organisation that could do nothing but hope

and be held hostage to decisions of the superpowers .

There are more challenges for the WTO this year. So far, we have seen that politics wins over trade . And

there is a real concern that politics may become more powerful in 2015 . Regional agreements such APEC, BRICS,

ASEAN, SAARC and TPP have all been in focus for members in 2014 and are expected to knock multilateralism off the table in 2015.

In Azevêdo’s own words, 2015 is set to be an eventful year for the WTO. He plans to hold the 10th Ministerial Conference in Nairobi in December 2015. The 5th Global Review of Aid for Trade will be held in June-July this year. However, what’s interesting is that the WTO plans to

implement all aspects of the Bali package and address other issues of the Doha Development Agenda by July 2015. Six months from now will be a good time to evaluate the status of the WTO, its promise to developing and least developed countries, and its place in a world that is witnessing an economic and political reset.

No impact to GATSThornberg and Edwards 2011 (Christopher [PhD] and Frances [JD]; Failure of Trade Liberalization: A Study of the GATS Negotiation; Journal of International Business and Law Volume 10 | Issue 2; kdf)

The very existence of scheduling by itself created a sort of transparency in that it created a knowledge of which members were and were not willing to negotiate in good faith. The GATS can at least be seen as a starting point for the opening of markets to the international trade in

services. However, without a formal requirement tying the GATS to the GATT -not just for the purposes of negotiation, but also for the purposes of uniformity in treatment and approach-and without any enforcement mechanism by which to encourage more active participation by member nations of the WTO, it may be that the progressive liberalization of trade in services through the GATS will be muddled and slow at best. The end result may be that nations may find themselves no better off than if they had simply negotiated with other nations independent of the WTO , and may be made even worse off if the necessary provision of Most Favored Nation status to non-committing members actively discourages some nations from removing barriers to

international service trade. To date, negotiations under the GATS and the GATT still remain separated . Despite the obvious problems with the GATS , the WTO held to a commitment not to link the GATS and the GATT . The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development secretariat noted that the GATS negotiations have not created the hoped-for balance of the obligations and rights of member nations and there has been little headway in assisting developing countries to increase service exports.53 One review by Choike indicated that "any claim that the GATS protects public services must be met at least with some skepticism." 54 It is further noted that GATS regulations and negotiations "must undergo a radical transformation if they are to benefit the world's poorest citizens. The GATS, it is argued, is not a "'development-friendly agreement'. . . but rather an instrument wielded by the industrialized world to steadily curb the chances of development of the poorest countries, through successive rounds of negotiations."5 5

AT: GWCongress won’t allow any multilateral commitmentsPillar 12/15/14 - Professor of security studies @ Georgetown University for security studies [Paul R. Pillar (28 years at the Central Intelligence Agency) “Finally, US Leadership on Global Warming,” Consortium News, December 15, 2014, pg. http://tinyurl.com/qadu9nn

Now consider the attitudes toward the United States exhibited at the current negotiations on climate change at Lima Peru, as reported by Coral Davenport in the New York Times. An important part of the context, one that has made a huge difference from how the United States was regarded in earlier multilateral negotiations on the

climate problem, is that the U nited S tates has recently reached a path-breaking

agreement with mega-polluter China on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases,

and the Obama administration has not just talked the talk but also walked the walk

with new regulations to curb emissions from coal-fired power plants .

A result has been “cheers, applause, thanks and praise” for U.S. negotiators . “The U.S. is now credible on climate change,” says the French ambassador who is his

country’s lead diplomat on the subject. Says a leading United Nations official with responsibilities on the

subject, “Countries got weary of negotiations with the U.S.; it got tough in negotiations, but it didn’t deliver. Now the U.S. has policies in place to deliver on its word.” Delegates praised the personal involvement in the current talks of Secretary of State John Kerry.

This is true leadership in action. There certainly is a shared interest. Keeping the planet habitable is an interest that is as widely shared, and as important, as one can get.

The U nited S tates is leading both by setting an example in doing its necessary part and through

active diplomacy aimed at persuading others to do their parts.

That leadership has changed the political and diplomatic climate in a way that, as

indicated by the atmosphere at the Lima conference, significantly enhances the

chance of meaningful multilateral action to slow the deterioration of the

earth’s climate and atmosphere.

Back here in Washington, some of those who are quick to criticize the administration in the name of calling for more U.S. leadership are revealing how inconsistent they are by retreating into a small-minded

focus on next year’s financial returns for coal mines in Kentucky. If such people use their voting power in the next Congress to overturn what the administration has done

regarding restrictions on emissions, they will have struck a blow against U.S.

leadership .

WTO can’t solve warming – carbon leakage--leakage: any carbon constraints just mean we re-locate companies to developing countries without caps

Low & Marceau 11 (Patrick Low WTO Gabrielle Marceau WTO Julia Reinaud Institute for Industrial Productivity Manuscript date: 12 January 2011, ‘World Trade Organization Economic Research and Statistics Division”, )

Abstract

As governments increasingly adopt policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, concern has grown

on two fronts. First , carbon leakage can occur when mitigation policies are not the same across

countries and producers seek to locate in jurisdictions where production costs are least affected by

emission constraints . The risk of carbon leakage raises questions about the efficacy of climate change policies in a global sense.

Secondly, it is precisely the cost-related consequences of differential mitigation policies that feed industry concerns about competitiveness . We thus have a link between environmental and

competitiveness perspectives that fuses climate change and trade regimes in potentially problematic

ways as governments contemplate trade actions to manage the environmental and/or competitiveness

consequences of differential climate change policies. On the trade side of this relationship, we have the reality that the

GATT/WTO rules were not originally drafted to accommodate climate change policies and concerns . The

purpose of this paper is to analyze the relevance of certain WTO rules to the interface between climate change and trade, focusing in particular on border measures, technical regulations on trade, standards and labelling, and subsidies and countervailing duties.

It concludes that in the absence of clear international understandings on how to manage the climate

change and trade interface, we run the risk of a clash that compromises the effectiveness of climate

change policies as well as the potential gains from specialization through trade.

<rest of paper skipped, omitted in the card>

VI. CONCLUSIONS

Policies to mitigate climate change are not costless . They inevitably have an impact on relative costs

and returns among economic activities at the national and international level. The size of these effects depends on a range of factors, including the relative level of mitigation efforts among countries, the degree of uniformity of different jurisdictions in the approach to combating climate change, the efficiency of the measures adopted, and the contribution of innovation and

technological discovery. All these elements feed into the competitiveness consequences of climate change

policies. The focus of this paper has been on the nature of the response to these consequences on the part of governments, and the implications of that response for the interaction between the climate change policy and trade policy.

Different levels and types of climate change mitigation

/// MARKED ///

effort among countries have direct environmental consequences because of leakage . The international mobility of resources and the presence of trade mean that carbon constraints in one

country can lead to the relocation of economic activity to another country where carbon constraints

are less costly . If countries were to accept carbon emission constraints at the national level, sectoral leakage could be neutralized

through adjustments in carbon constraints anywhere else in the economy chosen by a government. That would mean that the leakage problem was addressed from a purely environmental perspective, but in the context of inter-sectoral resource shifts among countries. The only way to ensure the absence of inter-sectoral consequences would be with an internationally uniform climate mitigation policy such as a carbon tax or a unified carbon price based on auctioned emission permits. Neither of these policies are likely to see the light of day.

It is against this reality that consideration of the competitiveness consequences of climate change mitigation

policies is inevitable . Carbon leakage and competitiveness concerns appear inseparable in practical terms.

One can think of a spectrum of alternative ways of reacting to this reality. The view at one end of the spectrum is simply to recognize that there

will be competitiveness effects as the global community faces up to climate change. Once the externality is internalized , i t is

just a matter of comparative advantage - economic activities shift location across frontiers all the time

as a result of changes in relative efficiency. That is the history of economic progress in an

internationalized economy . At the other end of the spectrum is the view that climate change policies should result in no changes in

relative levels of competitiveness. If national climate change mitigation efforts have different sectoral impacts,

these should be accounted for in trade policy.

The essential question is where governments might settle on this spectrum. The optimum spot would be one that maximizes climate change policy effectiveness, minimizes economic costs and minimizes international friction through the attainment of a stable understanding of how trade policy and climate change policy should interact. It is the last of these issues upon which the paper primarily focuses.

In broad terms, two approaches are available for addressing the competitiveness consequences of climate change policy from a pure competitiveness perspective. First, governments may attempt to raise the cost of imports through adjustments at the border to neutralize additional domestic production costs incurred by sectors as a result of GHG emission reduction policies. Second, they may use subsidies to lessen the competitiveness consequences of carbon constraint costs, thus relieving pressure on border adjustment measures. In practice, governments might resort to a combination of these approaches, and each of them has been analyzed in this paper.

The ability to compare alternatives and outcomes is at the heart of any effort to shape policies that

address regime differences. Comparisons among policies are also central to legal determinations of

WTO -consistency. One challenge in thinking about a trade policy context for policies aimed at fixing climate is that the latter are frequently

directed at the plant or firm level in given sectors. Except where the base for a climate change mitigation policy is consumption and a product

(e.g. a tax on fuel consumption), this complicates determinations in the WTO because in that context most of

the measures affect products, not production entities or facilities.

A related problem is the need for comparability between different kinds of measures deployed to reduce GHG emissions. If one country prefers regulation to taxation or cap-and-trade, for example, some notion of equivalence is required. Two kinds of equivalence are relevant. One is "comparable effectiveness", which looks at the environmental side of the equation.

Governments are virtually certain to deploy different means of mitigating GHG emissions and there is a range of circumstances where policymakers need to know the relative effectiveness of the alternatives. The other kind of equivalence relates to competitiveness and is the cost equivalence of alternative GHG emission control policies. These may be determined in some instances through price or price-equivalent differences attributable to given climate change policies.

Given the fact that governments rely on price and non-price interventions , as well as different kinds of non-price

intervention, methodologies are required to make comparisons. This requires operating assumptions and will never be

perfect . This is regardless, for example, of whether the effort to make a comparison is between a regulatory intervention and a market-revealed carbon price generated through a cap and trade regime, or is between distinct non-price policies.

2NC

2NC Perm do the CP(1NC) Online gambling occurs at the location where the operator providing the service has physical infrastructure --- legalizing online gambling in the United States means allowing both the placing of bets and the reception of those bets by operators based in the U.S. Bernhard Maier, March 2010. LLB (Hons) 2008 Southampton University, LLM (Distinction) 2009 University College London. “How Has the Law Attempted to Tackle the Borderless Nature of the Internet?” International Journal of Law and Information Technology 18.2, p. 142-175.

In Britain, the Gambling Act 2005 has introduced a licensing scheme using a connecting factor similar to that adopted

by article 4(1)(c) of the Data Protection Directive. Essentially, the Act makes licensing for providers of gambling facilities in accordance with its provisions compulsory171. However, as for the provision of facilities for remote172 gambling, section 36(3) states that the licensing scheme shall only apply ‘if at least one piece of equipment used in the provision of the facilities is situated in Great Britain .’173 In other words,

even though providers established in Britain will be subject to the licensing requirement when offering their services to customers abroad, providers established in a different jurisdiction will only be caught by the regime if there is a physical link with the territory .

The personal computer of a customer taking advantage of a gambling website whose provider is physically established abroad is explicitly excluded from constituting such a link.174 Effectively, this means

that where there is no physical connection with Great Britain apart from the website being available to customers on British soil, the government has decided to defer regulation of these activities to the jurisdiction in which the provider is physically established.

Unfortunately, there is ambiguity concerning this deference within the wording of the Act itself. The Explanatory Notes to the Draft Bill explained that ‘a person providing gambling by means of remote communication, who has no relevant equipment within Great Britain, will not fall within the scope of the draft Bill or any of its provisions, even if people within Great Britain can receive the gambling he is providing.’175 As Kohl points out176, this assertion is inconsistent with the wording of the Act as section 36(3) itself states that it is the licensing requirement enunciated in section 33 that only applies to the provision of facilities for remote gambling if at least one piece of equipment is situated in Great Britain. Also, section 46(1) makes it an offence to invite, cause or permit a child or young person to gamble177 and the wording used suggests that the section applies to domestic and foreign providers alike. Following the narrow interpretation of section 36(3), one must presume that a provider physically established abroad would be committing an offence by providing a website accessible on British territory allowing a child or young person to gamble or even advertising on a site known to be frequently visited by minors.

5.4 U.S. Law

Instead of attempting to regulate online gambling, the U.S. has taken an approach of outright prohibition.178 The three main criminal statutes having this effect before 2006 were the Wire Act of 1961, the Travel Act and the Illegal Gambling Business Act.179 In October 2006, a further controversial180 federal statute was enacted which was specifically aimed at limiting ‘U.S. access to Internet gambling sites hosted on offshore servers.’181 To accomplish this goal, it effectively prevents ‘Internet gambling businesses from accepting credit, electronic funds transfers, checks, or drafts from U.S. Internet gamblers [and] holds financial institutions responsible that knowingly act as intermediate agents between the Internet gaming business and gamblers.’182

As the above provisions then outline, it is very difficult to legally supply online gambling services to U.S. citizens on U.S. territory via the Internet. Returning to the principle identified in Chapter II, this can certainly, to some extent, be described as an act of regulatory overreaching, only this time applied in a quite different context. Effectively prohibiting any form of online gambling to reach U.S. territory subjects every provider in the world to U.S. law, provided it has customers on U.S. soil amongst its clientele. Even though there have been numerous183 high profile arrests of individuals related to the provision of offshore gambling services, it appears that at this stage in time the ‘small amount of federal case law […] is not sufficient to form a comprehensive pattern’184 regarding the prosecution of foreign providers.

Furthermore, it is essential to underline that it is an established principle of international law that ‘failing the existence of a permissive rule to the contrary [a state] may not exercise its power in any form on the territory of another state.’185 However, international law does not prohibit ‘a state from exercising jurisdiction in its own territory, in respect of a case which relates to acts which have taken place abroad.’186 Accordingly, there is the possibility of the U.S. legitimately enforcing their criminal law by prosecuting individuals responsible for enterprises making available online gambling facilities on U.S. territory if these persons enter American sovereign territory. Given the economic and political might of the U.S., it appears187 that many major gambling providers have chosen to implement steps so as to avoid U.S. customers and the liability associated with them.

The net result of the prohibition is therefore the construction of artificial borders through regulation drafted to prevent online gambling services from abroad to reach U.S. customers. On the surface, this is justified with altruistic motives such as the protection of minors. However, the real motivation behind the measures undoubtedly is the protection of tax revenues and the traditional gambling industry from the competition posed by this new form of borderless entertainment.

U.S. gambling law has also had severe detrimental effects on other economies seeking to offer their services to customers in America. In the trade dispute brought against the U.S. before the World Trade Organization, the small Caribbean island state Antigua alleged ‘that U.S. efforts to prohibit Internet gambling, such as laws criminalizing the taking of offshore bets, caused the decline of [Antigua’s] gambling industry’188and that this was contrary to commitments of the U.S. under the General Agreement on Trade and Services (GATS).189 After a first ruling in Antigua's favour190, an appeal panel confirmed that indeed some of the U.S. gambling laws constituted disguised restrictions on trade and were therefore inconsistent with WTO

commitments.191 Interestingly, the panel also rejected the U.S. contention that the measures in question fell under one of the exemptions of the treaty because even though they were on their surface necessary to protect public morals, they did not apply to national and foreign providers alike.192 Effectively, the U.S. could not justify why in certain circumstances local providers could offer remote gambling services when Antiguan companies were not allowed to do so. Because of the U.S. failure to ensure full compliance with the panel findings, the dispute between the two countries continues until the day.193

Concluding, it seems that one can sympathise with the argument that the protection of public morals should not be capable of being overridden by international trade commitments. On the other hand, where this protection is merely held out to distract from the ulterior motive of protecting the national economy in the form of tax revenues, international bodies such as the WTO should not be hesitant to remind the U.S. that it, after all, is the biggest proponent of the concept of capitalistic free exchange.194

5.5 Conclusion

From this brief analysis it can be seen that there are a number of different regulatory approaches to gambling, each of which has its merits and demerits. The EU decision to exclude gambling from the country of origin approach in the E-Commerce Directive was taken before the advent of the commercial Internet as we know it today and its adequacy in the light of modern technology can certainly be challenged. However, given the complexity of the different national legal systems based on different moral but also economic arguments, it remains questionable whether adopting a country of origin approach such as the one to be found in the ECD would be workable in practice. The approach adopted by the UK, namely to make licensing applicable to remote gambling providers only if they have a physical link with the territory on its surface certainly seems a wise one to take. After all, it implicitly acknowledges that regulation of providers established abroad is at best utopian. Nevertheless, as can be seen from the inconsistencies in the wording, despite the initial deference this concept too seeks to retain its ultimate control over harmful content having effects on sovereign territory. Having drawn up only very few of the countless problems involved in the U.S. prohibition of online gambling, one could easily see that erecting artificial borders through regulation to tackle the Internet's ubiquitous and seamless nature does not make for a viable long-term solution.

CHAPTER VI

6 Analysis – Reflection

Having looked at various areas in which the law has attempted to tackle the borderless nature of the Internet, a variety of common themes can be extracted. Jurisdiction has been allocated to and exercised by the forum of the country of origin, in most contexts this place being the location of establishment. Also, the physical location of equipment used for a given activity has been used as a connecting factor. Furthermore, the place envisaged or targeted by actions has been emphasised. In addition, reference has been made to localities in which material was accessed or, for the purposes of the relevant law ‘published.’ Finally, the territory on which an act produced its effects has also been vested with jurisdiction over the perpetrators of the relevant act. Perhaps the most controversial concept illustrated was the erection of ‘artificial’ borders through regulation. In the case of gambling, these borders amount to trade barriers which deter and prevent the free flow of information and thereby obstruct the development of cross-border commerce and wholly undermine the borderless nature of the Internet. Each of the above concepts has its merits and demerits and must be visualised in the context of its respective underlying policy objective.

6.1 Country of Origin

Given that the country of origin model has been utilised in ways only subtly differing from each other, it comes as no surprise that its meaning and scope have troubled commentators.195 Ideally, as the Electronic Commerce Directive has done, the concept makes certain activities subject to the law in which the persons or entities responsible are established. The gist of this notion is that its effectiveness and desirability really depend on harmonisation.196 Only if the substantive laws of the country in which the perpetrator of whatever activity is physically located assumes jurisdiction are broadly equivalent197 to the laws of the place in which the activity had its effect can adverse consequences on the rights and interests of the latter's residents and industry be prevented.198

Although not a rule for determining the forum as such, the single publication rule to be found in American jurisprudence is also an interesting concept worth mentioning here. On an inter-state level, it allows potential claims in a number of states to be entrusted to only one jurisdiction; the place where the “global” cause of action arises. Despite seemingly practical on a national level, the notion does not appear to be a desirable one for the implementation on a global scale given the significant differences in national substantive laws around the world. Most likely, it will therefore remain to be a peculiarity of multi-jurisdictional defamation cases within the US alone.

One can at this stage contrast the European system established by the combined effect of Article 5(3) of the Brussels Regulation and the Shevillruling. Here, even though there is an incentive for the plaintiff to sue in the Member State in which the defendant is established, an alternative route is provided in which the plaintiff can sue in the place where harm was done to his or her reputation for the damage done within that forum. Limited exclusively to the EU, this rule has its foundations in reciprocity. Judgments rendered in one European jurisdiction will be recognised and enforced in any other European jurisdiction without the need to resort to complicated formal procedures. Such reciprocity being absent on the international plane, the usefulness of this particular mechanism is therefore limited to dealing with the borderless nature of the Internet within the borders of the European Union.

As regards data protection and privacy, within the EU both article 29(6) and article 4(1)(a) have the effect of allocating jurisdiction to the courts of the forum in which the data controller is established. This, within Europe has the advantage of preventing a multiplicity of suits as well as to give established data controllers certainty as to their liability. No such mechanism regarding the allocation of jurisdiction existing199 between European and other fora, other concepts of determining jurisdiction had to be found.

6.1.1 Location of equipment

The next concept makes the location of the processing equipment used 200 the decisive connection to allocate jurisdiction. In the context of data protection, it was aimed at protecting individuals within the European Union from the misuse of their data by controllers established outside the Community. Viewing cookies and their like as qualifying, this connection became very broad in scope and raised familiar issues such as unpredictability, liability under a multitude of legal systems and the most obvious one, enforcement. The additional provision prohibiting data exports into countries not deemed to provide adequate protection deviates from a pure concept of allocating jurisdiction according to the location of the equipment. Even though their interplay is not entirely certain, the latter's structure on its surface provides a mechanism for artificially erecting borders in cyberspace so as to prevent data from illegitimately being extracted from within the Community.

In the context of online gambling, using the connecting factor equipment was aimed at giving effect to the British policy angle that the regulated activity is taking place where the operator is based.201 The

legislation treats the location of equipment for the provision of gambling services as decisive for the application of the licensing requirement and thus jurisdiction. However, if that link with the territory is absent, the regime defers regulation to the country where the provider is established. In other words, the concept again includes elements of a nuanced country of origin approach. Excluding from this deference the protection of minors, the regulation also adds the connecting factor of an effect had within the territory as theoretically enabling the courts of the forum to exercise jurisdiction over the foreign provider so as to protect its most vulnerable citizens.

U.S. court rulings agree --- the gambling transaction occurs both at the location of the bet and of the operator.Pedro Raventós and Sandro Zolezzi, March 2011. INCAE Business School, Apartado Postal 960-4050, Alajuela, Costa Rica; and CINDE, Plaza Roble, Escazú, Costa Rica. “Sportsbooks and politicians: Place your bet!” Journal of Business Research 64.3, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014829630900304X.

Online gambling has raised complicated issues of jurisdiction , particularly in the U.S ., one of the few

countries that outlaw sports gambling outright. In March of 1998, authorities charged Jay Cohen, the operator of a sportsbook in Antigua, with violating the Wire Act. In his defense, Cohen argued that the bets took place in Antigua where they were legal. The court sentenced him to 21 months in jail, arguing that the transaction takes place both in the U.S. and in Antigua.

Gambling takes place both at the location where the bet is placed and the terminal location where it’s received.Chuck Humphrey, 10/13/2006. Attorney specializing in gambling law matters. He is the author and Webmaster of Gambling-Law-US.com, a leading source for information on U.S. State and Federal gambling laws, BBA, MBA and J.D (cum laude) degrees, all from the University of Michigan. “Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006,” Gambling Law US, http://www.gambling-law-us.com/Federal-Laws/internet-gambling-ban.htm.

Unlawful Internet gambling is defined as :

placing, receiving or transmitting a bet

by means of the Internet

but only if that bet is unlawful under any other federal or state law applicable in the place where the bet is initiated, received or otherwise made.

excluded from the coverage of "unlawful Internet gambling" are

waypoints along the World Wide Web that are only incidental to the places where the electronic transmission of the bet or wager is initiated and finally received.

online bets made solely within a single state under an enabling statute passed by that state. [Note: there are no such enabling laws at this time.]

online bets made solely on or among Indian tribal lands under enabling laws adopted by the affected tribes and approved by the National Indian Gaming Commission. [Note: no such laws have been adopted or approved at this time.]

online bets made under the Interstate Horseracing Act. [Note: online interstate bets on horse races where such bets are legal at both ends of the online connection have been permitted under that law since 2000.]

The new law, therefore, only applies to online gambling operators who violate other existing state or federal anti-gambling laws. Some commentators on this aspect of the Act conclude that since there are only a handful of states that expressly ban Internet gambling, this law has not accomplished very much.

The better view is that all of the online gambling sportsbooks, casinos and cardrooms violate existing anti-gambling laws of every one of the fifty states. This is because:

The gambling is legally deemed to take place simultaneously at both ends of the Internet connection .

Under applicable state laws these interactive online gambling Websites are deemed to be doing business in the states in which the players are located when they make a bet.

The general anti-gambling laws of every state criminalize the operation of unlicensed gambling like the sportsbooks, casinos and cardrooms that are covered by the new law.

Nearly all means ALL with one or two exceptions --- we can’t PIC out of deuce to seven triple draw; but we can obviously exclude a FULL THIRD of the topic area.Rodgers and Cooper, 06 – professor of counseling at Strathclyde University (Brian and Mick, “Proposed Scoring Scheme for Qualitative Thematic Analysis”, www.strath.ac.uk/Departments/counsunit/docs/art_QTA.doc)

Drawing on the work of psychotherapy researchers Robert Elliott, Clara Hill and colleagues, the following scheme has been proposed for the write up of qualitative thematic analysis when describing the ‘weighting’ of codes or categories (i.e. the number of interviews that the

code/category appeared in). The intention is to use ‘plain English’ terms to describe the frequency of occurrence. For example the term ‘around half’ is used to describe 50% plus or minus one interview, and ‘ nearly all’ is used to describe 100% minus one or two interviews.

2NC Solves TradeWTO violations are explicitly about the exclusion of foreign operators from taking bets in the U.S. market --- CP solves.Mattia V. Corsiglia Murawski, 2008. J.D. Candidate 2008, Santa Clara University School of Law, B.A. Political Science and Legal Theory 2005, Wheaton College MA. “The Online Gambling Wager: Domestic and International Implications of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006,” Santa Clara Law Review 48.2, 48 Santa Clara L. Rev. 441, http://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1119&context=lawreview.

In 2003, Antigua requested a dispute settlement panel before the WTO in order to determine whether it had suffered economic damages as a result of U.S. anti-gambling laws. 48 The general legal question

was whether U.S. state or federal laws breached the GATS commitment of nondiscrimination by

prohibiting offshore online gambling operators from taking bets from the U nited S tates . 49 In

November 2004, the WTO issued its first panel report and both the United States and Antigua appealed.1 50 On appeal, the United States argued that an exception found in GATS Article XIV applied in the case. 5 ' Article XIV allows governments to act contrary to the GATS agreement when it is "necessary to protect public morals or to maintain public order." 5 2 GATS Article XIV limits this exception by letting countries invoke it "only where a genuine and sufficiently serious threat is posed to one of the fundamental interests of society." 5 3 According to the United States, its laws were reasonable because they were necessary to combat money laundering, fraud, compulsive gambling, underage gambling, and organized crime. 5 The WTO Appellate Body partially agreed. 51 5 In 2005, it ruled that the United States could restrict Internet gambling because there was a connection between the remote supply of gambling services and dangers to the American public. 56 Both countries claimed victory after the decision. 157 The United States pointed out that the decision allowed itself and other WTO members to maintain restrictions on Internet gambling because such laws protect "public morals." 5 ' Antigua countered, arguing that the decision was beneficial for foreign countries because it would require the United States to bring its laws into conformity with

international law. 159 Nevertheless, the decision was not a decisive win for the United States. 6 ° The WTO recognized

the U nited S tates' concerns regarding offshore operators accepting bets from U.S. users as legitimate , yet it did not find a nexus between the supply of Internet gambling services and the danger to U.S. citizens.' 6 ' To determine the legitimacy of the U.S. concerns, the WTO considered factors such as the volume, speed, ease of access, breadth of international reach, near anonymity, and isolated environment. 62 In addition, the WTO specifically rejected the U.S. argument that the threat of organized crime was significant. 63 The WTO explained that there was insufficient evidence to support the argument that online gambling was more pervious to the involvement of organized crime

than other forms of gambling.'" The U nited S tates was also unable to show that it did not ban offshore operators from a gambling market in which domestic operators were permitted. 65 The United States was unable to rebut the perceived inconsistencies in the 2000 Interstate Horseracing Act (Horseracing Act). 166 The Horseracing Act allows interstate betting by users as long as the betting is legal in both states. 167 According to the WTO, allowing interstate

betting while expressly barring offshore operators discriminated against foreign jurisdictions . 68 Thus, the WTO determined that the Horseracing Act violates rules of nondiscrimination, and that other gambling

prohibitions restricting the ability of foreign firms' access to the U.S. market are also invalid. 69

The WTO allows regulation as long as it’s not discriminatory against foreign operators. Given that the CP allows NO domestic operators, minimal regulatory standards for foreign operators don’t discriminate because all foreign operators face the same standards. The CP certainly doesn’t favor domestic operators. Joost Pauwelyn, 2005. Associate Professor, Duke University School of Law. “Rien ne Va Plus? Distinguishing domestic regulation from market access in GATT and GATS,” World Trade Review, 4.2, http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1725&context=faculty_scholarship.

On 7 April 2005, the World Trade Organization (WTO) condemned the United States for banning online gambling. 1 It did so at the request of one of the smallest countries in the world, Antigua and Barbuda. Antigua brought its complaint to the WTO after Jay Cohen, a US citizen and operator of an internet sports-book service based in Antigua, was jailed in the United States for the remote supply of gambling services in violation of the 1961 US Wire Communications Act. 2 This paper does not address whether the United States did, indeed, make specific commitments for gambling services under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). 3 Nor does it deal with the panel’s controversial rejection of the US defense (only partly reversed by the Appellate Body) that its gambling laws are ‘necessary to protect public morals or to maintain public order’. 4 The question of whether the United States, either in law or effect, discriminates against foreign gambling suppliers is also left open. 5 Instead, the paper raises a systemic argument of considerable importance for the future of the GATS. It runs as follows. Even if the United States did make specific commitments on gambling, the US ban on remote gambling is not, as both the panel and the Appellate Body found, a ‘market access restriction’ that is, in principle, prohibited under Article XVI of GATS. Rather, it is a ‘domestic regulation’ subject to Articles VI and XVII of GATS, more particularly, a technical standard applying to both foreign and US suppliers that prescribes how gambling services must be performed in the United States. To construe trade-related policies as market access restrictions, whilst they are in fact domestic regulation – as, in my view, occurred in US – Gambling – has major legal consequences. In contrast to more integrated trade liberalization schemes such as the European

Union or the United States, 6 both the GATS and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) make crucial distinctions between market access restrictions and domestic regulation. In essence, where commitments are

made, market access restrictions are, in principle, prohibited. 7 Domestic regulati on, in contrast , is subject to broad regulatory autonomy and , as a rule, violates GATT or GATS only when it discriminates against imports. Notwithstanding this basic distinction in two of the main pillars of the WTO, the boundaries between market access and domestic regulation remain unsettled. This paper is an attempt to draw those boundaries using, in particular, the example of the US – Gambling case. Far beyond the specifics of the Gambling dispute, a correct classification of policy instruments under WTO law is important for a wide range of market interventions, be it to protect public morals, health, the environment, or national security. Driven to its logical conclusion, the approach in US – Gambling risks WTO intrusion into the regulatory freedom of WTO Members far beyond what was originally agreed to in the WTO Treaty. 8 The classification is crucial also for ongoing negotiations on disciplines for domestic regulation under Article VI:4 of GATS. Essentially, if the scope of market access restrictions under Article XVI of GATS were defined too broadly, as risks being the case after US – Gambling, scores of domestic regulations would already be prohibited and the ongoing negotiations would lose much of their purpose. Section 2 of this paper explains the distinction between market access and domestic regulation. It highlights similarities – as well as some crucial differences – between GATT and GATS, and contrasts the WTO approach with the more integrated systems of EC and US law where the distinction is largely absent. Section 3 elaborates on how the two disciplines are circumscribed and interact, first in GATT, then in GATS. At this juncture, additional differences between the GATT and GATS become apparent. To provide a concrete example, Section 4 applies the position defended in this paper to the US laws in the Gambling dispute. Section 5 summarizes the paper’s main findings. 2. The distinction between market access and domestic regulation Both GATT and GATS make important distinctions between types of government policies that may restrict trade. Those distinctions are not merely legal niceties. They reflect both economic and political preferences of certain types of policies over others and lead to drastically different disciplines and restrictions on the regulatory autonomy of WTO Members. Depending solely on how a government measure is categorized, the measure may therefore be permitted or prohibited under WTO law. Put differently, when misinterpreting those distinctions (as, in my view, the Panel and the Appellate Body did in US – Gambling), the risk is that WTO violations are found where the drafters of the WTO treaty envisaged broad regulatory autonomy. 2.1 Market access versus domestic regulation under GATT Under GATT the crucial dividing line amongst policy instruments affecting trade is between, on the one hand, measures imposed at the border or on importation and, on the other hand, measures affecting imports once they have cleared customs. The former – often referred to as ‘border measures’ or ‘market access restrictions’ –

are covered by Articles II and XI of GATT, addressing, respectively, custom duties and other duties or charges imposed on or in connection with importation (Article II) and quantitative import prohibitions or restrictions (Article XI). The latter – commonly referred to as ‘behind the border measures’ or ‘domestic regulation’ – are dealt with in Article III addressing internal taxation (such as VAT or sales taxes) and other internal regulations (such as safety requirements or sales regulations). The legal

consequences linked to those GATT distinctions are vital. Most importantly, whilst market access measures taking the form of quantitative restrictions are, in principle, prohibited (pursuant to Article XI), GATT parties reserved their sovereign prerogative to set domestic regulation , be it internal taxes, safety standards, or sales requirements, on the sole condition that such regulation does not favor domestic products over imports (pursuant to Article III). Put differently, when a measure is found to be a border measure subject to Article XI, it is

prima facie prohibited. In contrast, when the measure is qualified as a domestic regulation under Article III, it can only be found afoul of GATT rules when it is discriminatory. 9 Sound economic and political reasons for the GATT distinction between market access and domestic regulation are readily available. In economic terms, border or market access measures – be it custom duties or import quotas – by definition only apply to imports and can therefore be presumed to be imposed for protectionist purposes. Since protectionist measures are, in general, economically wasteful and harmful to both foreign producers and domestic consumers, there is a strong case to prohibit them or, at least, to gradually reduce them (as is

the case for tariffs). 10 Domestic regulation, in contrast, most often serves legitimate , non-protectionist

purposes , be it consumer protection, safety, or health . As a result, it made sense for the GATT to

overrule domestic regulation only when it is proven to be protectionist, more particularly, when it

discriminates against imports , that is, when it imposes so-called deadweight costs on foreign firms that are not imposed on domestic firms.11

NB

2NC linkU.S. prohibition on operators has turned Europe into the epicenter of online gambling.The Economist 09 Online gambling in Europe Stacking the deck Prohibition of online gambling is driven by a desire to protect revenues, not consumers Jul 16th 2009http://www.economist.com/node/14034920

WHO says Europe cannot produce internet giants? In one area of online commerce, at least, its companies dominate the world. Betfair, an online-betting exchange based in London, has been called the eBay of sports betting (see article), and the vast

majority of the websites that allow people to play poker and other games of chance or skill for real money are based in Europe.

In part, this is because that is where the market is: Europeans place some 40% of all online wagers. A bigger reason , however, is America's prohibition of online gambling . With its love of horse racing, sports and casinos, and its world-beating technology industry, America ought to be the natural home of this burgeoning field. But it has arrested industry entrepreneurs and ordered banks to halt payments to online-gambling firms . In June the European Commission grumbled that American restrictions on European online-gambling firms break World Trade Organisation rules.

Digital economyIt’s not just tax revenues --- online gambling is a key driver of Europe’s overall digital economy --- creates critical IT growth that helps stave off financial crisis.Unibet, 2011. Founding member of the European Gaming and Betting Association. “Consultation on the European Commission’s Green Paper “On online gambling in the Internal Market”,” http://www.unibetgroupplc.com/pages/1014/Unibet%20Group%20Plc%202011%20-%20Green%20Paper%20submission.pdf.

Online gambling is an essential driver and part of European e-commerce and the digital economy . We

strongly believe that, as such, it cannot be viewed outside of this context and that policy makers should recognise its potential as a global leading digital industry with important spill-over effects into Europe’s economy . In Malta, for instance, the online gambling industry has been the driving force behind a material improvement in the quality of ICT infrastructure and a reduction of the cost of broadband by more than 50%. In doing so it has helped to define and shape domestic policy in Malta. The online gambling industry is one

of the true success stories of European e-commerce: it drives innovation and contributes to the development of

highly skilled smart jobs in Europe, as well as to research into, and innovation in, crucial areas such as data privacy, IT security, e-identification and e-payments. It is a driver behind issues that have been singled out

by the European Commission as critical, for example, in the context of the EU’s Digital Agenda. The best example of this

untapped growth is the presence of leading ICT gaming companies in Stockholm providing mainly highly

innovative B2B solutions for B2C gaming operators across the world. This Stockholm ICT cluster can be best compared to the ‘Silicon Valley’ of the global digital gaming industry. In May 2011, Professor Henrik Jordal of the Swedish Institute of Industrial Economics presented the European Parliament with a report entitled ‘Sweden’s digital growth industry: New perspectives on the need for a re-regulated gaming market’. While historical gambling monopolies have experienced only single digit growth (if not actually stagnated),

the report indentifies strong double-digit year-on-year growth with, for instance, an average employment growth of 35% (compared with 9% for local monopolies). The results can be seen in Figure 1 below. The

high pace of growth in the online gambling industry translat es into the creation of new work

opportunities for European citizens. This contribution to strengthening the EU job market is critical , especially in the midst of a financial crisis. The online gambling industry contributes to the creation of

highly skilled, ‘smart jobs’ in Europe . For example, the online gambling industry works with many companies specialising in digital technologies which use the latest know-how to provide live betting and other live experiences for customers, such as the live casino. In developing the range of products offered by online gaming companies , demand for workers is created in areas of web technology including design, architecture and mobile applications8.

Europe BrinkEurope shoring up economy now but on the brink of recession --- would trigger Eurozone crisis.Reuters, 10/11/2014. “Europe growth pact floated as euro zone recession fears mount,” http://www.cnbc.com/id/102080087.

Heeding global calls for action to shore up Europe's sagging economy, euro zone's top finance official proposed a new growth pact on Friday to break a policy logjam and spur reforms by rewarding countries with cheap funds and leeway on budget targets.

The I nternational M onetary F und , which cut its global growth forecasts for the third time this year this week,

flagged Europe's weakness as the top concern , a sentiment echoed by many policymakers, economists and investors.

European officials in Washington for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings sought to dispel the gloom, with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi talking about a delay, not an end, to the region's recovery.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the chairman of euro zone's finance ministers, used the forum to propose a new "growth deal" for Europe offering nations embarking on ambitious economic reforms more fiscal wiggle room and low-interest EU funds.

"There is no reason for this gloominess about Europe," Dijsselbloem told Reuters. "Those countries that have actually implemented the strategy and done the reforms, have returned to growth, in southern Europe, in the Baltics, in Ireland. Which once again proves that reforms do not hurt growth, but help recovery quite quickly."

It would take months of political negotiations for the proposed pact to take shape. In the meantime, a steady stream of poor economic data looks set to keep Europe's partners on edge .

"The biggest risk to the global economy at the moment .. . is the risk of the euro zone falling back into

recession and into crisis ," British finance minister George Osborne told reporters.

Case

No SolveE-commerce is stuck on definitional fights over “goods,” “services,” and intellectual propertyClarke 05 C. Trevor Clarke, World Intellectual Property Organization, LLM in the Law of Information Technology, Chapter: “Intellectual property, e-commerce, Competition policy, and internet Governance” from Drake, William J., ed. Reforming internet governance: Perspectives from the working group on internet governance (WGIG). No. 12. United Nations Publications, 2005. http://www.wgig.org/docs/book/C_Trevor_Clarke%20.pdf

The work is wide ranging across these five bodies. However, progress has been slow, mainly because members have not been able to agree on a classification for electronically delivered products . The rules governing trade in goods fall under the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) while the rules governing trade in services fall under the GATS. The fact that neither “goods” nor “services” are defined in the GATT and GATS respectively seriously complicates the

already complicated matter of the electronically delivered product . The WTO recognizes that it is products previously traded only as physical goods but are now also tradable as digital information that presents the challenges.

Now WTO rules treat goods and services differently. With the exclusion of a few specific “exemptions”, GATT rules focus on the binding reduction of tariffs applied to all members. On the other hand, GATS rules do not yet address tariff reduction and are mainly the result of bilateral negotiations where each member can retain considerable flexibility in the way its services are progressively liberalized. Also customs duties are rarely imposed on services.

While the WTO continues to support the avoidance of border taxes on “electronic transmissions” which presumably refers to products ‘shipped’ electronically. It must be noted that import duties and border taxes are important sources of revenue for most developing countries. Currently, most goods ordered using e-

commerce are delivered by traditional means and are therefore accessible for inspection and charging as appropriate. However, a rapidly increasing volume and variety of soft goods : music, movies, books, architectural and engineering drawings etc are being shipped electronically and delivered over the Internet. The physical equivalent of some of these products are already recognized as goods and do have Harmonized System22 tariff codes identifying the physical characteristics of the media while ignoring its contents.

In 1995 the WTO Committee on Customs Valuation adopted a 1984 Tokyo Round Committee decision which permits members to levy taxes either on the value of the “carrier media” i.e. tape, diskette etc., or on the combined value of the carrier media and its contents i.e. software, movies etc. 23 So electronic ordering and physical delivery does not present a problem.

However, it is the electronic delivery that continues to present challenges in the WTO where the means of delivery

and the content of the “package” come into conflict. The notion of the ‘importation’ of the data bits has given rise to the idea of “intangible goods” as a solution! 24

Also complicating the governance issue is the existence of intellectual property in both goods and services.

Consequently, the application of Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) 25 rules may defy any general solution to e-commerce disciplines in trade .

They have to renegotiate GATS firstNancy J. King, J.D., MST. Associate Professor, College of Business, Oregon State University, and Kishani

Kalupahana, LL.M, LL.B. Affiliate Faculty, College of Business, Oregon State University, ’07

Also significantly, U.S.-Gambling is the first WTO dispute to directly address the application of GATS rules to regulatory barriers restricting the

cross-border supply of e-services. 31 But while it resolves some of the general issues with regard to the scope of

GATS rules to e-services,3 2 U.S.-Gambling also reinforces the uncertainties of a relatively

undeveloped GATS legal framework .3 3 In U.S.Gambling, both dispute settlement panels labored to establish that a U.S. ban on

online gambling and betting services, which placed limitations on the cross-border supply of electronic gambling and betting services, was a prohibited quantitative restriction under specific U.S. commitments on market access. 34 Given that the present rules do not satisfactorily define the boundaries between measures that ought to be classified as market access restrictions and those that are subject to a more limited review under the general provisions in GATS on domestic regulations, the WTO Dispute Settlement Panels' interpretation of the regulatory reach of GATS rules in the dynamic context of cross-border e-services trade is inevitably controversial. 35 U.S.-Gambling reflects the prevailing uncertainty as to the dividing line between prohibited and permissible domestic regulation. It also indicates that GATS rules on domestic regulation may be less than effective in preventing the more pervasive and less transparent regulatory barriers from nullifying the liberalization

gains obtained through negotiations. Accordingly, this Article argues that as long as GATS disciplines on domestic

regulation remain undefined, there is little hope that these boundaries will be resolved with the

degree of precision and certainty that is required to respond to the unique issues arising with regard

to the domestic regulation of electronically delivered cross-border services .

Developing Countries / Jensen Re-HighlightJensen = same argJensen 12

[J. Bradford Jensen, Professor of Economics and International Business at the McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, 19 November 2012, “Global trade in services: Fear, facts, and offshoring,” Vox: Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists, p. http://www.voxeu.org/article/global-trade-services-fear-facts-and-offshoring //wyo-tjc]

Should the US, or indeed the EU, Japan, Canada, or Australia, fear increased trade in services? As the ‘Really Good Friends of Services’ discussions gain

momentum in Geneva, it seems an important time to ask1. Fear of the unknown Much of this concern is driven by the unknown. Which services are

tradeable? Which services will become tradeable tomorrow? How many jobs are in tradeable services? Which service jobs are likely to face competition from low-wage, labour-abundant

countries such as India? Answers to these and other questions about services are hard to come by. One reason is the lack of detailed official statistical data on services in general and trade in services in particular.

Addressing a gap in the data To address this data gap, I have developed a methodology to identify ‘tradeable services’ using domestic production data for the US (Jensen 2011). The methodology relies on the intuition that services that are nontradable will usually be

distributed with demand. For example, think of barber shops, beauty salons, grocery stores and divorce lawyers. On the other hand, services that exhibit

geographic concentration in production, such as software, movies, financial services, and research

and development activities, are traded within the US and thus tradeable internationally . The developed world

needn’t fear trade in services The US, and the rest of the developed world, should not fear increased trade in

services. To the contrary, the US and the EU should be aggressively seeking to liberalise policy

impediments to service trade in order to take advantage of the many opportunities that expanded service trade offers. Trade in services as an opportunity One outstanding opportunity is presented by the enormous infrastructure boom that the developing world will undertake over the next 20 years . Building masses of infrastructure will require inputs from a wide array of engineering, technical, and other business services in which US firms are highly competitive. As an organising principle and motivating focus for service trade liberalisation, the US should set a goal of ensuring the ability of US service firms and workers to compete fairly for participation in what is an historic undertaking. The service sector in the US The service sector is a large and growing contributor to the US economy, employing a majority of American workers. The business service sector alone, which includes, among many others, information, financial, scientific, and managerial services, accounts for 25% of employment in the US – more than twice as many jobs as the manufacturing sector. Employment in the business service sector increased almost 30% over the past decade, while manufacturing employment decreased by over 20%. Figure 1. Source: 2007 Economic Census and Census of Government and 2006 Occupational Employment Survey. The popular perception that most service jobs are ‘bad jobs with low wages’ is wrong. In fact, the business service sector pays significantly higher wages and salaries on average than the manufacturing sector. Average annual wages in business services are more than 22% higher than average wages in manufacturing. US trade surplus in services US trade in services is growing, for both imports and exports. The share of employment in tradeable services activities is large, potentially exposing a large share of the US workforce to foreign competition. Service exports have doubled over the past decade and, although service imports have also increased significantly over the same period, the US consistently runs a trade surplus in services – in contrast to its sizeable trade deficit in goods. Many services are potentially internationally tradeable Many service activities (engineering and architecture services, project management services, movie and music recording production, software production, and research and development services, to cite a few examples) appear to be ‘traded’ within the US and are therefore at least potentially tradeable internationally. Approximately 14% of the US workforce is in service industries that this book classifies as tradeable. In contrast, only about 10% of the workforce is in manufacturing. When workers in tradeable occupations, such as computer programmers in the banking industry, or medical transcriptionists in the healthcare industry, within non-tradeable industries are included, the share of the workforce in tradeable service activities is even higher. Figure 4. Employment shares for tradeable industries Source: Author’s calculations using 2007 American Community Survey High-skill jobs aren’t likely to be lost Even though these jobs pay high wages, they are not likely to be lost to low-wage countries. Indeed, precisely because they are high-skill, high-wage jobs, they are jobs that the US is likely to retain and that can support exports. In short, the US has comparative advantage in high-skill, high-wage manufacturing activities. Table 1. Worker characteristics for select industries Source: Author’s calculations using 2007 American Community Survey Yet, in spite of having a comparative advantage in business services and globally competitive business service firms, US service firm participation in exporting lags significantly behind export participation in the manufacturing sector. About 25% of manufacturing plants export; in business services only one in 20 establishments export. Looking at exports-to-sales ratios in manufacturing, about 20% of manufacturing sales are exported; in tradable business services, less than 5% of sales are exported. Implications for US trade policy What do these findings imply for US trade policy? Although the US has a comparative advantage in services, turning that advantage into real economic benefits for US firms and workers is not automatic. A number of large and fast-growing economies around the world are less open to service trade than the US. Liberalising service trade with these countries is sure to be difficult, because it means not just reducing tariffs and other border controls as was the case with trade in manufactures, but instead fighting through a tangle of regulations, licensing requirements, and other countries’ internal barriers. Figure 5. Restrictiveness of services trade policies by GDP per

capita, 2005 Note: GDP per capita, PPP is in constant 2005 USD. Source: Gootiiz and Mattoo (2009). The coming infrastructure boom But the historic opportunity that increased service trade represents, in particular because of the coming infrastructure boom – over $20 trillion by some estimates – in the developing world, justifies the effort required. Other developed economies

also have comparative advantage in services and would be natural partners with the US in persuading the large, fast-growing countries with high service barriers to liberalise. The US,

working through the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), should join with other developed countries in

pushing for further liberalisation of business services, to ensure that US service firms and workers

have the opportunity to compete in the coming infrastructure boom . Much of the spending for infrastructure in the coming boom

is likely to be controlled or financed, at least in part, by governments -- national, regional, and local. Those governments are sure to be subject to political pressure to favour domestic producers when granting. This makes guaranteeing equal treatment in government procurement a crucial issue for foreign service providers. WTO Government Procurement The WTO’s Government Procurement Agreement was negotiated with the intention of reducing preferences to domestic firms in public procurement and opening public works spending to international

trade. Its coverage was extended tenfold in the subsequent Uruguay Round , but this large sum obscures the fact that to date only a

relative handful of countries have signed the agreement, virtually all of them in the developed

world . In particular, none of the large developing countries expected to account for the bulk of

infrastructure spending in coming decades, that is, Brazil, China, India, and Russia, are participants in

the agreement. The US, again in cooperation with other developed countries, should strongly encourage large and fast-growing countries to sign on to the WTO Government

Procurement Agreement. The US needn’t fear trade in services So, should the US fear increased trade in services? No. Indeed, quite the contrary; the US and the developed world should embrace trade in services and aggressively pursue liberalisation in the services sector.

AT: Heg Internal LinkThis is the worst internal link to American hegemony their gerritsen evidence says that “there could be a fundmanetal change in the global balance of power” why would that result in the collapse the the United States American primacy or mean that our military can’t function? I have no idea. This evidence is non uniqued by the past 4 years, it’s about the status quo Obama spending programsGerritsen 9 [Eric J. Gerritsen, Principal of Global Internet Advisors, a Silicon Valley-based international strategy consulting firm which helps Internet companies devise revenue strategies in fast-growing international Internet markets, with particular focus on Asia, “The Global Infrastructure Boom of 2009-2015: Strategic Economic Consequences for America, China and the Global Economy,” Working Paper #48, Collaboratory for Research on Global Projects, March 2009 //wyo-tjc] Emory = Green

The amounts of infrastructure money about to slosh into the world economy defy imagination : The

Obama Administration will spend $150 billion of its $787 billion stimulus plan on infrastructure and is

expected to add to that; China has pledged $585 billion and stands ready to do more; India is

expected to spend $500 billion on infrastructure over from now till 2015; the EU $252 billion; Japan

$129 billion; Canada $12 billion; Australia $4.7 billion, Singapore $13.8 billion; Germany $42 billion;

and so on. CIBC World Markets estimates total infrastructure spending over the next 20 years at $35

trillion . Some $3 trillion of fiscal adrenalin will be injected into the global economy in the next 24 months alone. The only other time in human history when this much money has moved this quickly into the global economy was during WW II and that event of course reset the world order for the next

60 years , with America at the helm . Depending on how this money gets spent there could be a

fundamental change in the global balance of power . Most pre-2008 long-term global economic

trendlines need to be thrown out. This great infrastructure boom will create winners and losers . Losers will squander infrastructure spending on corruption and ineptitude. Winners will create powerful new engines of economic growth for generations to come based on new energy, globally competitive health care, and strong educations.

Laundering

2NC Laundering InevitableLaundering’s inevitable –

1. Other countries – the US is just a drop in the bucket – criminals look for unregulated websites in foreign jurisdictions to circumvent obstacles and find more websites.

2. Their studies are flawed – their claims are based off a misrepresented whitepaper according to its author – that’s Stutz.

3. Only .5 percent of laundering is from online poker.Lee 14, Jacqueline, 1/7/14, “Bing Blang Blaow: Online Poker Could Open Money Laundering Floodgates for Terrorism,” http://www.mobilecommerceinsider.com/topics/mobilecommerceinsider/articles/365753-bing-blang-blaow-online-poker-could-open-money.htm, Accessed 6/9/14

Those in favor of legalizing online gambling argue that online poker is a poor tool for money laundering. Friedrich Georg Schneider, an Austrian economist who works for Johannes Kepler University, told the European Parliament in 2013 that both casino and online gambling count for just 0.5 percent of all money laundering activity. Schneider also pointed out that online poker was a particularly poor vehicle for money laundering because of the high transaction costs and relatively small sums. Point of fairness—no mention was made of potential money laundering through anonymous virtual currencies like Bitcoin. The issue boils down to whether or not federal and state governments should legalize its citizens' vices and then reap the tax benefits. Governments heavily tax alcohol and cigarettes. Many states already have casinos or lotteries, and Colorado has even legalized the sale of recreational marijuana. Unfortunately, national governments have cried "wolf" about terrorism so many times that it's hard to take their online poker threats seriously. Just recently, the federal government revealed that it had spied on online fantasy games like World of Warcraft out of fear that terrorists would use their gnome avatars to plot attacks against America. Online gambling could prove to be another government cash cow. America just has to ponder whether the reward outweighs the money laundering risk.

4. Banks thump.Tharoor 14, Avinash, 1/17/14, “Banks Launder Billions of Illegal Cartel Money While Snubbing Legal Marijuana Businesses,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/avinash-tharoor/banks-cartel-money-laundering_b_4619464.html, Accessed 7/29/14

The failure of both the vigilantes and the army to quell the cartel's carnage is a direct result of the huge profits that the drug trade generates. Cartel leaders can continue hiring and arming their combatants because it's worth the expenditure; the illegal drug trade accounts for around 8 percent of all international trade. One of the primary reasons that cartels retain their enormous power is that well-known and popular banks are supporting their finances.¶ Bank of America, Western Union, and JP

Morgan, are among the institutions allegedly involved in the drug trade. Meanwhile, HSBC has admitted its laundering role, and evaded criminal prosecution by paying a fine of almost $2 billion. The lack of imprisonment of any bankers involved is indicative of the hypocritical nature of the drug war; an individual selling a few grams of drugs can face decades in prison, while a group of people that tacitly allow -- and profit from -- the trade of tons, escape incarceration.¶ The hypocrisy of the role that banks play in the drug trade is particularly disgraceful when considering the recent system of marijuana regulation that was introduced in Colorado. The state's legal marijuana business has proven to be highly lucrative, with $5 million made in the first week of 2014. However, at present, marijuana businesses cannot access essential banking services. Despite liberalization of marijuana laws in Colorado and elsewhere, the plant remains illegal at the federal level; this means that banks won't open accounts for marijuana businesses, so the majority of their transactions are cash-only. The movement of such large amounts of cash can be highly dangerous for business owners, and troublesome for both customers and tax collectors.¶ Earlier this week, several Colorado legislators made a bipartisan appeal to the federal government, requesting clear guidelines for marijuana businesses' regulation within the banking sector. Banks have avoided allowing these new companies to open accounts, ironically, for the fear of being penalized, or implicated as launderers. Essentially, the current banking system implicitly tolerates the handling of violent cartels' illegal assets, but blocks the legal and legitimate business of the Coloradan marijuana industry. ¶ The role that banks have played in the global drug trade has been partly responsible for widespread carnage and countless civilian deaths, particularly in Mexico. Now, as legal marijuana industries begin to emerge, and the war on drugs seems to slowly decelerate, the banking sector has an opportunity to redeem itself in this respect. Banks cannot undo the wrongs of the past, but they can create a fairer future for regulated trade within this expanding and legal new industry, and without supporting lawlessness.

5. So do Front companies.Novis and McDowell 1, John McDowell, Senior Policy Adviser, Gary Novis, Program Analyst, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, U.S. Department of State, “THE CONSEQUENCES OF MONEY LAUNDERING AND FINANCIAL CRIME,” Vol. 6, No. 2, May 2001, Accessed 7/11/14

Undermining the Legitimate Private Sector: One of the most serious microeconomic effects of money laundering is felt in the private sector. Money launderers often use front companies , which co-mingle the proceeds of illicit activity with legitimate funds, to hide the ill-gotten gains. In the United States, for example, organized crime has used pizza parlors to mask proceeds from heroin trafficking. These front companies have access to substantial illicit funds, allowing them to subsidize front company products and services at levels well below market rates.¶ In some cases, front companies are able to offer products at prices below what it costs the manufacturer to produce. ¶ Thus, front companies have a competitive advantage over legitimate firms that draw capital funds from financial markets. This makes it difficult, if not impossible, for legitimate business to compete against front companies with subsidized funding, a situation that can result in the crowding out of private sector business by criminal organizations. ¶

6. And Diamond trade.FATF 13, Financial Action Task Force, independent inter-governmental body that develops and promotes policies to protect the global financial system against money laundering, Oct 2013, “Money Laundering And Terrorist Financing Through Trade In Diamonds,” http://www.fatf-gafi.org/media/fatf/documents/reports/ML-TF-through-trade-in-diamonds.pdf, Accessed 7/29/14*ML = Money Laundering, TF = Terrorist Financing.

OVERVIEW OF DIAMONDS AND MONEY LAUNDERING AND TERRORIST FINANCING¶ That this report has highlighted the different and unique characteristics of diamonds and the diamond trade which make the industry vulnerable to ML and TF activities should not be taken to mean that the industry is more vulnerable relative to others. Nonetheless, it is important to keep in mind that the complexity of the international diamond trade means that the ML and TF vulnerabilities and risks may differ from one segment of the "pipeline" to another and from one jurisdiction to another. ¶ Beyond more conventional cases of ML, including the laundering of the proceeds of crime and the generation of criminal profits, some research 44 has shed light on the use of diamonds and diamond jewellery as an alternate currency by criminals. This is particularly notable in the case of diamonds used by criminal enterprises engaged in drug trafficking , (i.e., the trade of diamonds for drugs). Diamonds are also used by such criminals for wealth movement, storage and preservation, and use as a status symbol. ¶ It is useful to make a distinction between ML through the diamonds trade and laundering diamond proceeds of crime. The first type of activity is where a criminal will launder cash or other payment means acquired through predicate offences he commits45 by placing and layering through the diamonds trade. This can be done by conducting transactions with the proceeds of crime as if they were trade in diamonds where in fact the diamonds trade will only be used to transfer funds from one account to another, whether locally or internationally, or by purchasing diamonds with cash proceeds of crime and then selling the diamonds to obtain cash at a later date or a different location. ¶ The second type of activity is where illicit diamonds (e.g. stolen/robbed diamonds, or diamonds received as a form of payment for drugs) will be laundered by selling or trading the diamonds, by cutting/re-cutting and polishing the illicit diamonds etc.' so as to conceal their illicit source. In both cases the criminal has laundered proceeds of crime, but only in the former case we can formally speak about ML as such, i.e. money which is laundered through the trade. The diamond industry is a perfect example where both can occur.¶ This distinction may be lost among law enforcement practitioners, intelligence officers and industry representatives, who almost exclusively refer to ML as encompassing all processes related to the proceeds of crimes involving diamonds. However, with respect to the development of typologies, this distinction is very important, especially as it relates to the use of diamonds as alternate currencies and in remittance systems used by criminals. For example, Pablo Escobar laundering drug profits through jewellery stores in a massive ML scheme46. And in 2003, USD 150 million worth of diamonds were stolen from a central diamond vault in a single theft event47. In this case, selling the diamonds is profiting from the proceeds of crime. Both cases utilised the diamond market. ¶ TF can involve the use of unlawfully and lawfully provided funds to finance terrorism activities. Diamonds could therefore be used to finance terrorism in a scenario where a donor or financier purchases diamonds legitimately , using lawfully derived funds, and then transfers the diamonds to a terrorist or terrorist organisation who use the diamonds in exchange for equipment or cash intending to finance terrorist activities. ¶ Buying and selling diamonds within rough and

polished diamond markets is critical to understanding the vulnerabilities of the criminal use of diamonds, it is important to discuss the diamond and jewellery cycles. Diamonds are often reintroduced to the diamond market to be resold. The sale and resale of diamonds within the national and international diamond industry is a function of the diamond and jewellery cycle, which in turn provides an opportunity for laundering proceeds of crime. Illicit funds that are generated can be hidden, moved and entered into financial institutions or traded for other tangible assets within the diamond and jewellery cycle. The diamond industry may be a stepping stone for criminals who utilize these commodities to enter illicit funds into the banking system, whether in their own or in an offshore jurisdiction. ¶ This cycle is rather unique for commodities (although it also applies to precious metals and gemstones, to some extent), especially as the diamond remains in the same form from the time that it first enters the market after being cut and polished. The simplicity and ease with which diamonds can be purchased and sold, and the special characteristics of these precious stones, provides tremendous opportunity to exploit the commodity and the industry with regard to the laundering of the proceeds of crime.¶ In summary, the diamond supply chain at all of its stages, from production to consumption, can be the gateway to profitability, for laundering proceeds of crime, for ML or TF and for moving proceeds of crime into the financial system.

AT: Hunt

Cyberlaundering uniquely key to global terrorismHunt 11

[John Hunt (Lawyer—Florida Fifth District Court Of Appeal); “The new frontier of money laundering: how terrorist organizations use cyberlaundering to fund their activities, and how governments are trying to stop them”; Information & Communications Technology Law Volume 20, Issue 2, 2011; http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13600834.2011.578933#.VBCPjfldWSo] Emory = Greeen

For a terrorist organization seeking to launder money, the Internet and electronic currency provide excellent

tools for committing the crime efficiently. 26 As one author has stated, ‘[ c]yberlaundering is the safest way for

criminals to launder dirty money if the government cannot reconstruct the transactions of an audit trail’ . 27

The process of cyberlaundering mirrors the traditional methods, with the launderer ordinarily using the

three stages discussed above (i.e. placement, layering, and integration). 28 In addition to efficiency ,

cyberlaundering presents other benefits as well. One such benefit is that electronic currency allows terrorists to avoid the problems associated with physically transferring large sums of money, and allows criminal organizations to

make lightning fast transfers anywhere in the world . 29 Perhaps the greatest advantage cyberlaundering offers over traditional methods of money laundering is anonymity, since individuals may transfer electronic cash from

one location to another without ever having to complete a transaction in person. 30 This section will examine the concept of cyberlaundering, and discuss what role it will play in the future of money laundering. Before going into detail about cyberlaundering, it is helpful to provide a brief explanation of electronic currency, since the use of such currency is likely to increase in the coming years, and thus play an even more important role in future laundering schemes. 31 Electronic currency, as its name suggests, holds the same status as traditional hard currency in the world economy, except that it does not exist in a tangible form. 32 Some authors therefore call such currency the ‘greenback of the Internet’. 33 One method that allows individuals to take advantage of the benefits of electronic currency is through the use of stored value cards (SVCs), also known as ‘smart cards’, which are tangible cards (similar in appearance to phone cards) on which the user can store vast amounts of cash. 34 Individuals can load electronic currency onto their SVC at specialized vending machines, at the bank, at compatible ATMs, through the Internet, and even over the phone. 35 Electronic cash comes in three forms: one that operates within traditional financial institutions, such as banks; one that operates in a ‘tokenized’ system; and one that operates as a hybrid system. 36 Credit and debit cards continue to dominate online commerce in the US, but companies are beginning to develop a system for SVCs that could gain worldwide popularity. 37 Although this discussion provides only a cursory explanation of electronic currency and SVCs, it lays the foundation for a better understanding of cyberlaundering. In terms of the traditional three stages of money laundering, electronic currency and the Internet provide

ideal conditions for cyberlaunderers. 38 At the placement stage, cyberlaunderers benefit from the anonymity of the Internet and electronic currency, as there is no need for face-to-face transactions. 39 Launderers may thus make it past the

placement stage undetected, since they are able to avoid the strict reporting requirements imposed on

traditional financial institutions. 40 At the layering stage, the cyberlaunderer has the biggest use for the

Internet and its advantages over the traditional forms of layering in a laundering scheme. 41 If the

criminal can find an institution (e.g. a bank or online gambling site) that will permit him to set up an

account without face-to-face contact or without providing documentary evidence of identity, then it

would be extraordinarily difficult for the authorities to trace the account back to the cyberlaunderer.

42 The Internet provides an almost instantaneous method of transfer of electronic cash, and the transaction

can occur anywhere in the world where there is an Internet connection. 43 If the launderer can transfer electronic currency between

banks via the Internet, then authorities may find it nearly impossible to trace the funds back to the source. 44 Finally, the Internet also makes the integration of the cyberlaundered funds easier . For instance, an individual could establish an online gambling site and transfer funds from an online bank account (established using a false identity) to the online gambling

site; any proceeds of the gambling website would thus appear legitimate to authorities tracing the audit trail

of the profits. 45 This is the modern version of what the New York Mafia did in the 1920s when they opened Laundromats as fronts for their criminal activities. 46 The cyberlaunderer may also use legitimate bankers and lawyers to aid in the integration stage. 47 It is also possible that the cyberlaunderer could take advantage of debit cards issued by offshore banks, real estate transactions, and ‘fake loans from offshore companies’ to integrate the laundered funds back into the legitimate economy. 48

Once the laundered money passes through these stages, the criminal organization is free to use the funds to

further its aims . The next section will focus on how terrorist organizations utilize the Internet and cyberlaundering techniques to fund

their activities. This paper will then turn to the topic of how the US government, the UN, the G7, the OAS, and the COE have attempted to stem the laundering of money by terrorist organizations, and finally will discuss the future of measures aimed at stopping cyberlaundering. Given the threats posed by cyberlaundering to the financial industry and national security, it is vital that governmental organizations take steps to stem the use of new technologies by terrorist organizations. 49 4 Online terrorism: how terrorist organizations use the Internet and cyberlaundering to fund their activities Jump to section 1. Introduction 2 A brief history of money laundering and... 3. The new frontier of money laundering 4 Online terrorism: how terrorist organizations... 5 Attempts by national governments and... 6 The future of cyberlaundering: what... 7 Conclusion

Despite efforts by the governments of the US and its allies, terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas still maintain the ability to coordinate attacks and fund their activities. 50 One medium that

terrorist organizations are increasingly taking advantage of is the Internet. 51 There is evidence that terrorist organizations rely on

the Internet and related technologies to conduct their activities, which likely includes laundering money to legitimize their

funds. 52 Indeed, some observers believe that cyberlaundering and cyberterrorism may pose just as great a threat to

the stability of the global economy and global security as traditional w eapons of m ass d estruction . 53 Although

terrorist organizations may use the Internet for recruitment, training, and planning purposes as well, this section will focus on how such

organizations raise funds and legitimize those funds through cyberlaundering. 54 The Internet, with its anonymity, ease of use, and accessibility, permits terrorist organizations to avoid some of the dangers of conducting financial transactions through traditional channels . 55 To take one example of how successful terrorist organizations are in raising funds, consider

the case of al Qaeda. It is difficult to state with any certainty how much money al Qaeda raises every year; one estimate put the figure at $30 million in 2004, but that number is likely lower today. 56 Although certainly not all of the funds raised by al Qaeda pass through the

Internet, it is likely that the organization significantly relies on the Internet and cyberlaundering to help distribute its wealth. 57 Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations excel at adapting to changing circumstances, and of

maintaining their core financial stability, despite the best efforts of authorities. 58 In order to make these

adaptations and to take advantage of the Internet and other tech nologies, however, terrorist organizations must have reliable sources of funding . 59 Terrorist organizations rely on several sources to fund their activities. To provide some perspective, the CIA estimates that al Qaeda spent $30 million in the years leading up to the September 11 attacks for planning, recruitment, and other supportive purposes. 60 The CIA believes that much of the $30 million came from contributions from religious and charitable organizations. 61 One organization that provides a significant amount of support to al Qaeda is the Muslim Brotherhood, which ‘was founded in Egypt in 1928 as a religious organization’. 62 In addition to al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood also has ties to the Tamil Tigers, the Afghan mujahidin, and is considered by the US Treasury to be the ‘parent’ of Hamas. 63 More recently, terrorist organizations have turned to conventional crimes such as extortion, the selling of narcotics, and arms trafficking to fund their activities. 64 According to Mr David S. Cohen, the Assistant US Treasury Secretary for Terrorist Financing, the move into traditional criminal activities makes terrorist organizations ‘more vulnerable to detection by international law enforcement agencies … ’ 65 Although terrorist organizations have different motives than those who traditionally take part in the drug trade, there are many similarities between the activities of the two groups when one looks at their

reliance on drug trafficking for funding. 66 Terrorist groups also receive funds from investments in legitimate business. 67 Once the terrorist organizations receive the funds, they must ensure that they can spend the proceeds in economies around the world. Given that some of the funds obtained be terrorists come from legitimate sources, authorities may

have difficulty in tracing the funds or proving that the groups are committing the crime of money laundering. 68 Cyberlaundering and the

use of the Internet allow the organizations to launder and transfer money easily and quickly, and provide an alternative to traditional informal financial networks, such as hawalas. 69 The widespread availability of the Internet creates a convenient method for

terrorist organizations to transfer funds, both illegal and legal, to cells across the globe. 70 Using the cyberlaundering

techniques described above, terrorist groups can ensure that their coffers do not run dry . Although traditional

informal financial institutions are fast, inexpensive, reliable, convenient, and discreet, they do not share the Internet’s relative

lack of regulation and law enforcement observation. 71 In addition, the Internet allows terrorist financers to transfer

funds from the location of their choosing, without ever having to make a face-to-face transaction . 72 It is difficult to say

with certainty to what extent terrorist organizations use the Internet and cyberlaundering techniques to further their causes, but it is certain that the groups are taking full advantage of modern technology. 73 Although outside the scope of this paper, terrorist organizations may also

use the Internet for cyberterrorist attacks on governmental and financial infrastructures. 74 As one author stated, ’[t]errorists are able to do more damage with a keyboard than a bomb’. 75

AT: Cyber Teror

Respond with IT not with nukes – Lawson is a prof of communication. Doesn’t assume jack all. Grid’s resilientJim AVILA, Senior National Correspondent at ABC News, 12 [“A U.S. Blackout as Large as India’s? ‘Very Unlikely’,” http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/07/a-u-s-blackout-as-large-as-indias-very-unlikely/]

As India recovers from a blackout that left the world’s second-largest country — and more than 600 million residents — in the dark, a ripple of uncertainty moved through the Federal Regulatory Commission’s command center today in the U.S. The Indian crisis had some people asking about the vulnerability of America’s grid.

“What people really want to know today is, can something like India happen here? So if there is an outage or some problem in the Northeast, can it actually spread all the way to California,” John Wellinghoff, the commission’s chairman, told ABC News.

“It’s very , very unlikely that ultimately would happen .”

Wellinghoff said that first, the grid was divided in the middle of the nation. Engineers said that it also

was monitored more closely than ever. The grid is checked for line surges 30 times a second .

Since the Northeast blackout in 2003 — the largest in the U.S., which affected 55 million — 16,000 miles of new transmission

lines have been added to the grid .

And even though some lines in the Northeast are more than 70 years old, Wellinghoff said that the chances of a blackout like India’s were very low .

1NR

Politics

AT: We’re the StatesOnline gambling is sports betting, poker, casino games, bingo, and lotteries.Smita Deshmukh, 8/25/2014. SEO Executive at Transparency Market Research. “Online Gambling and Betting Market - 2014-2020,” https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140825054232-348360467-online-gambling-and-betting-market-2014-2020.

The online gambling and betting market is classified as sports betting, online poker, casino games including

games such as slot machines, online bingo, and online lottery . Though, casinos and land-based lottery dominate the gambling landscape, online real-money betting and gambling are growing rapidly across the world.

Nearly all means close to 100%.Lee, 85 – federal judge (William, CENTRAL STATES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS PENSION FUND, Plaintiff, v. BELLMONT TRUCKING CO., INC., Defendant, 610 F. Supp. 1505, 6/12, lexis)

In an attempt to ascertain the common [**15] meaning of the term "substantially," the court consulted several dictionaries. Many define the term as meaning "of ample or considerable amount, size, or quantity," see e.g., Random House Dictionary of the English Language, p. 1418. Webster's Third New International Dictionary, p. 2280, defines "substantially" as "being that specified to a large degree or in the main." Webster's goes on to list "massive" as the synonym of "substantially." These definitions indicate that the common meaning of the phrase

"substantially all" must be something which indicates "a large degree" o r "large amount" of all; the terms "almost all" or " nearly all," though admittedly imprecise, capture the essence of the phrase . If "substantially" is synonymous with "massive," then "substantially all" must mean some percentage which is very near 100%.

Only federal action can legalize online sports betting.John Mehaffey, 5/6/2014. “Horse Racing Socially Acceptable While Sports Betting and Poker Forced Underground,” US Poker, http://www.uspoker.com/blog/horse-racing-socially-acceptable-sports-betting/8004/.

Some reports draw publicity to the fact that the Kentucky Derby handle is larger than the amount Nevada sports books draw for the Super Bowl. Nevada sports books wrote $119 million in tickets for this year’s Super Bowl. The number is probably only about one percent of the total amount actually wagered on the game. The rest was wagered at online sports books or local bookies. The Kentucky Derby has a much wider reach through legal off-track betting facilities and regulated online sites. In other words, that comparison is apples and oranges.

One comparison that is valid is the hold on sports betting in Nevada. Straight bets have a juice of 4.5 percent. Exotics have a juice in the 15 percent range, depending on the wager. This is much lower than that of horse racing.

Churchill Downs does not get to keep all of the hold. It has a massive overhead. The venue has a large staff to pay for, as well as the grounds to keep. Kentucky takes 1.5-3.5 percent of the total handle for taxes. The horsemen’s purse also comes out of the hold.

Regardless, it was a big day for Churchill Downs and Kentucky and congratulations to them, but it brings up another point. Why is horse racing so acceptable, but sports betting so wrong?

The P rofessional and A mateur S ports P rotection A ct was enacted in 1992. It is being challenged by New Jersey. The state has already spent $2.8 million defending its right to offer sports betting. The U.S. Supreme Court is its last chance, otherwise, it will take an act from Congress to repeal the federal sports betting ban that only allows straight sports betting in Nevada and limited betting in Delaware, Montana and Oregon.

Violation—Poker is only 23% of online betting --- European market breakdown proves. We’ll submit this chart to the recordEuropean Commission, 10/23/2012. “Online gambling in the Internal Market,” Commission Staff Working Document, Accompanying the document Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Towards a comprehensive framework for online gambling, http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/gambling/docs/121023_online-gambling-staff-working-paper_en.pdf.

The online gambling market is growing though at a faster pace. With annual growth rates of almost 15% the market will most probably double in size between 2008 and 2013. However, with a market share of 10.9% online gambling is still a relatively small part of the overall market.

Compared to the overall gambling market the online gambling market shares are slightly different. Betting is the biggest sector followed by poker and casino games.

Florida DA

1NR Deal UQCompact will pass and gambling won’t be expanded in Florida.Batt 8/7, Tony, 2014, “Seminole Gaming Compact Awaits Winner Of Florida Governor’s Race,” http://www.floridagamingwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/GamblingComplianceSeminoleGaming2014-08-072.pdf, Accessed 10/8/14

But Bob Jarvis, a law professor at Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, said Florida and the

Seminoles have too much at stake in a new compact and “there’s no chance that a deal doesn’t get done.”

Echoing Dunbar, Jarvis said: “The legislature will ultimately decide what does and does not happen with the compact.”

Barry Richard, a Tallahassee attorney who represents the Seminoles, also dismissed the notion that the compact’s deadline will not be met.

“Money is money,” Richard said. “The compact is mutually beneficial to the state and the Seminole tribe."

By limiting casino gambling in Florida to the Seminoles, the compact is “one of the best bulwarks against the spread of gambling,” Richard said.

Only makes our link better – fiat of the plan collapses leverageKlas 14, Mary, capital bureau chief for the Miami Herald and co-bureau chief of the Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald Tallahassee Bureau, 4/12/14, “Gov. Rick Scott’s negotiations with Seminole Tribe could be a blueprint for gaming’s future in Florida,” http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article1962771.html#storylink=cp

And the most potent sign that the governor is talking: his office asked legislators to stop discussions of its gambling bills to avoid losing his leverage in the deal. That prompted House Speaker Will Weatherford last week to officially declare “lights are out” on gambling legislation for the session.

“The compact truly has become the cornerstone of gaming policy in the state of Florida,’’ said Sen. Bill Galvano, R-Bradenton, who helped negotiate the current compact but has not been invited to be part of this year’s discussion.

Extended after the election – they’re just taking a month long break.Rosica 8/11, James, 2014, “Scott, Seminoles gambling agreement not likely in the cards until after election,” http://www.naplesnews.com/news/state/scott-seminoles-gambling-agreement-not-likely-in-the-cards-until-after-election_04442417, Accessed 10/8/14

Big money hangs in the balance: The current deal guaranteed the state’s treasury $1 billion over five years from the tribe’s gambling revenue .

It’s still not clear whether Scott — whom legislative leaders have called “a great negotiator” — was at all involved in those early discussions.

The Governor’s Office has declined to answer questions about the Seminoles, including those submitted last week, other than repeating the assurance that the governor “will take the time needed to get the best deal for Floridians.”

For example, since news first broke of the talks, the tribe and Scott’s staff haven’t said who took part in the meetings, how many they had or what was discussed.

Richard has admitted he wasn’t in the room, but added if the negotiators had been close to a deal, “I would have known about it.”

“I think they just reached the point where, when it didn’t happen , it didn’t happen and they just stopped,” he said. “The governor went on to run his campaign and the tribe moved on to run their businesses.”

Everyone agreed to return to the negotiating table “after we know who the players are,” Richard said.

In other words, a new agreed-upon cut to the state won’t emerge till after the November election.

❖ ❖ ❖

In 2010, the state and tribe agreed to a compact funneling a cut of gambling money to the state in return for exclusive rights to offer blackjack and other card games. The card-game provision expires in mid-2015.

2NC Link – Online Gambling

Online gambling threatens tribes being excluded – causes tension and destroys revenue Di Gregory 10 Kevin V. Di Gregory, Law360 The Future Of U.S. Internet Gambling Regulation April 30, 2010 http://www.manatt.com/Articles/The-Future-Of-U-S--Internet-Gambling-Regulation.aspx#sthash.aq7WzYpZ.dpuf

Florida’s recent compact with the Seminoles places in stark relief the tension between legalized online gaming and tribal gaming . In that agreement, the Seminoles were given authorization to operate slot machines,

banked card games, and “any new game authorized by Florida law for any person for any purpose.”

The compact, recognizing the IGRA’s restriction of tribal gaming to tribal land, has a specific provision that would diminish the Seminoles revenue sharing obligation to the state if Florida legalizes online gaming . A bill had been introduced in the Florida

legislature to legalize online poker prior to the legislature’s approval of the compact, and other states, including California, are considering legalizing intrastate Internet poker.

At their convention in April, National Indian Gaming Association members debated Congressman Frank’s proposal and tabled a resolution to oppose it. His bill does

nothing to change the restriction in the IGRA. As is evidenced by the Seminole-Florida compact, tribes are concerned about their exclusion from the Internet gambling marketplace and its economic impact .

AT: No Impact EvergladesEverglades destruction = extinctionSFWMD, 2K [South Florida Water Management District, https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2294,4946833,2294_4946946&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL]

A: Biodiversity refers to the variety and variability of life, including the complex relationships among microorganism, insects, animals, plants and the air that we breathe. Diversity can be defined as the number of different items and their relative frequencies. For biological diversity, these items are organized at many levels, ranging from complete ecosystems to the biochemical structures that are the molecular basis of heredity. Thus, the term encompasses different ecosystems, species and genes. It is generally accepted that

human survival is dependent upon the conservation and preservation of this diversity of life. Q: Is the

Everglades a unique ecosystem? A: The Everglades includes many kinds of native ecosystems, including but limited to,

rivers, lakes, ponds, sawgrass marshes, tree islands, broad-leaved hammocks, sloughs and mangrove swamps. Forces of nature such as the sun, water, wind and fire have a profound effect on the development and lifecycles of various

ecosystems and their inhabitants. Subtle changes in elevation , which influence water depth and inundation periods, create the right conditions for various plant and animal communities throughout the Everglades. The Everglades, is indeed unique . As Marjory Stoneman Douglas wrote in her book The River of Grass, "There are no other Everglades in the world." Q: Is it technically possible to restore the Everglades? A: Yes, scientists believe it is possible to restore a portion of the original area close to original conditions. The Everglades today, comprising less than 50% of the pre-drainage Everglades, means that less water is needed. Having the right amount of water available, at the right times, and with the right water quality will still be a challenge, but an attainable one.

AT: Biotech ImpactBiotech industry expanding and resilientJohn D. Carroll 10, biotech analyst with 32 years of prize-winning experience in journalism, “E&Y: A resilient biotech industry registers its first profitable year” Apr 28 http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/e-y-resilient-biotech-industry-registers-its-first-profitable-year/2010-04-28

Ernst & Young has scanned the global biotech industry and found that established biotech hubs not only weathered 2009's scary economic downturn, they achieved a collective profitability for the very first time. But the big accounting firm wasn't ready to call for the champagne just yet.¶ The yawning gap between the industry's haves versus the have-nots is just as big as ever, small fish in the drug development pond face plenty of challenges obtaining operating cash and anyone trying to make it in

biotech today will need to clear a very high bar.¶ "Biotech companies have long confounded predictions on their ability to survive difficult economic conditions and 2009 was no different," says Glen Giovannetti, Ernst & Young's global biotechnology leader. "Companies will continue to face a challenging funding environment for the foreseeable future. The firms best poised for success are those that can seize the opportunities latent in the near-universal need for increased efficiency--from capital efficiency to new approaches to R&D and creative models for funding and partnering."¶ In an interview this morning,

Giovannetti told FierceBiotech that in the "New Normal" era, successful biotechs will learn how to distinguish themselves from the crowd. Mega-mergers have left fewer, and far more selective, buyers at the bargaining table. Venture capital groups have less cash on hand to invest. More of the VCs will use a project approach to development, selecting small teams to take a program to the point where they should either get wholly involved or just kill it. And developers will need to make a strong case early on that their therapeutic will be either significantly cheaper or much more effective than currently available meds.¶ The emphasis now,

says Giovannetti, is on "how will this technology really differentiate itself in the marketplace?"¶ E&Y's report includes some key highlights, including:¶ Established biotech centers in the U.S., Canada, Europe and Australia achieved an aggregate net profit of $3.7 billion for last year. That's well up from the $1.8 billion loss recorded in 2008.¶

Public biotech companies, led by a handful of star players, raised 42 percent more cash last year , with follow-on offerings ginning a considerable amount of that.

1NR Impact

Compacts key to Floridian educational funding – absent its revenue, state budget cuts are inevitable.FACC 9, Florida Association of Community Colleges, 4/24/9, “Community colleges endorse Seminole Compact for education,” Naples News, http://www.naplesnews.com/news/education/community-colleges-endorse-seminole-compact-educat, Accessed 7/27/14

TALLAHASSEE - Citing the critical need for funds to handle unprecedented enrollment growth, the Florida Association of Community Colleges declared its strong support today for the Seminole Compact negotiated by Gov. Charlie Crist.¶ "With Florida's budget facing desperate shortfalls in Lottery funds and

General Revenue, the Seminole Compact is the only new source of public revenues to protect higher

education in Florida," said Mike Brawer, executive director and CEO of the Florida Association of Community Colleges. "We urge the Legislature to pass the Compact and allow those funds to assure continued open access to our 28 colleges." ¶ The Compact would yield hundreds of millions to the state budget this year, with a minimum of $ 2.5 billion in additional funds over the next 25 years. ¶ Other education groups including the Florida Education Association, the Florida Association of District School Superintendents and the Florida School Boards Association have also endorsed the Seminole Compact as a ready solution to help stave off devastating cuts in education. ¶ There is no other plan under legislative consideration today that offers so many new jobs and so many needed dollars at a time when Florida is losing both.¶ The Seminole Tribe of Florida has committed to significant expansion at four of its casino complexes if the Florida Legislature ratifies the Compact, which will create 45,000 new Florida jobs that will stay in Florida and cannot be outsourced.¶ According to economic projections, the Compact will inject hundreds of millions of dollars into Florida's economy in the form of payrolls by direct employment by the Tribe, as well as millions more from construction jobs, development contracts and an economic multiplier effect that will ripple through thousands of businesses across Florida.

Floridian educational funding is key to the space industry and Florida’s economy.Gibson et al 11, Audrey, Committee on Military Affairs, Space, and Domestic Security, Sept. 2011, “Expanding Florida’s Role In The Space Industry,” http://www.flsenate.gov/PublishedContent/Session/2012/InterimReports/2012-135ms.pdf, Accessed 7/28/14

Space-related Research Programs in Florida¶ Florida State University Center of Excellence for Advanced Aero-Propulsion¶ The Florida State University Center of Excellence for Advanced Aero-Propulsion (FCAAP) is a consortium of four universities (Florida State University, Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, the University of Central Florida, and the University of Florida) which was established in 2008 with the following objective s: to help train and sustain the much needed, highly skilled aerospace industry workforce; to design and develop new tech nologies and products required to help sustain the aerospace industry; and to transition technology to applications in a timely and efficient manner.24¶ Since its creation with $14.5 million, the FCAAP has received $16.4 million in competitive grants, filed 15

invention disclosures, and has been awarded 8 licenses/options.25 Florida Space Institute/Florida Space Grant Consortium¶ The Florida Space Institute (FSI) was created in 1990 by the University of Central Florida (UCF), currently operates as a consortium of 10 higher education institutions in Florida, and is physically located at the Kennedy Space Center. The mission of FSI is “to support Florida’s space industry through university education, applied and basic research in space-related fields, and technical training.”¶

26 Its partners include the following public and private universities and community colleges:¶ University of Central Florida¶ Florida Institute of Technology¶ Broward College¶ Florida A&M University¶ Florida Atlantic University¶ University of South Florida¶ University of Miami¶ Brevard Community College¶ University of Florida¶ Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University¶ Space Florida recognizes an opportunity to enhance FSI abilities and identifies FSI as a potential research client who may relocate to the Space Life Sciences Laboratory (SLSL)27 or Exploration Park28 and provide expertise to entities that will need both payload and rocket launch support. 29¶ One critical responsibility for FSI is to administer the Florida Space Grant Consortium (FSGC). 30 FSGC is an affiliate of the National Space Grant College and Fellowship Program, which was formed in 1989 by NASA. FSGC’s mission is to provide grants, fellowships, and scholarships to students and educators within the S&E disciplines to diversity and expand Florida’s space industry.31¶ Center for Microgravity Research¶ Space Florida is partnering with the University of Central Florida (UCF) to establish a Center for Microgravity Research (Microgravity Center), with the goal of establishing Florida as an international destination for microgravity research. According to Space Florida, there are plans to establish the Microgravity Center at both UCF and the SLSL with the intention of attracting both U.S. and international clients who desire research in microgravity environments. Additionally, Space Florida envisions the Microgravity Center research to

stimulate both the sub-orbital and orbital rocket business and position Florida at the core of related activities.32 FAA Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation33¶ In August 2010, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) established the Air Transportation Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation (Center) and designated New Mexico State University as the lead institution. The Center is a partnership of academia, industry, and government, developed for the purpose of creating a world-class consortium that will address current and future challenges for commercial space transportation. Florida has a high representation in the Center in that 4 out of the 9 university members are Florida universities – Florida Institute of Technology, Florida State University, University of Central Florida, and University of Florida. There are currently 19 active Center-funded research projects and each Florida member university is involved in one or more of those projects.34¶ Future R&D Opportunities on Kennedy Space Center Property¶ With an altering and somewhat uncertain future mission of NASA, it is presumed that a number of NASA’s state-of-the art laboratories and facilities will become decommissioned or underutilized. Consequently, there may be an opportunity for universities in Florida to capitalize on their close proximity to the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and conduct R&D at the laboratories and facilities in which NASA identifies as decommissioned or underutilized. ¶ This potential partnership between NASA and the university research community in Florida could prove to be significantly beneficial to NASA, universities in Florida, and also the Florida economy. NASA envisions foster ing a strong commercial space industry presence at KSC facilities and launch pads once decisions have been made as to NASA’s utilization of the current infrastructure. In January 2011, NASA released a formal Notice of Availability and Request for Information to obtain input from the space industry on potential uses for the facilities that may become available in the near future. It is still uncertain at this time which facilities will be made available. According to NASA, the 45 KSC laboratories listed in the John F. Kennedy Space Center’s Core Technical Capabilities Catalog35 will

remain in full operation through fiscal year 2013.36¶ The Space Life Sciences Laboratory (SLSL) is a facility which may allow additional opportunities for university R&D activities. The SLSL, located on the grounds of KSC, was built in 2004 with $26.8 million in state appropriation to provide NASA with state-of-the art lab space to process science experiments or equipment that were headed for or returning from the International Space Station. Current SLSL tenants include the University of Florida, Florida Institute of Technology, and NASA. 37 While NASA has been the primary tenant of the SLSL, the shifting direction of NASA may require a smaller NASA presence in the SLSL, which may allow for greater university tenancy. ¶ Additionally, it is anticipated that Exploration Park, a high-tech research and office park being developed adjacent to the SLSL, will provide opportunities for future Florida academic R&D. Construction on Exploration Park began in March 2011 and it is expected to accommodate up to 450,000 square feet of research, lab, and office space.38 Exploration Park’s close proximity to NASA and U.S. Air Force launch facilities, payload processing, and technical labs, makes it “the ideal place to provide support to commercial launch initiatives, as well as NASA and U.S. Department of Defense missions.” 39¶ NASA’s Spinoff Capabilities¶ Since its inception in 1958, NASA has been responsible for ensuring its mission-specific research and development activities can be shared and applied beyond the space community.40 The U.S. can recognize a great return on investment in NASA R&D from the remarkable technological innovations that support the U.S. aerospace industry which are subsequently commercialized to meet alternative needs. A NASA technology that is transferred to the private or public sector for commercialization or for other uses is known as a NASA spin off, which is officially defined as a “commercially available product, service, or process that takes NASA-related technology and brings it to a broader audience.”41 NASA spinoff technologies, while originating from mission-specific R&D, transfer quite well into commercial products and benefit an array of fields such as health and medicine, transportation, public safety, consumer goods, environmental resources, and computer technology. ¶ NASA’s Innovative Partnership Program Office (IPP) is responsible for seeking out potential licenses and negotiating license agreements to transfer NASA technology.42 To promote NASA technologies and provide information on commercial applications of NASA technologies, IPP produces the annual Spinoff Magazine. Since 1976, NASA has annually issued this publication documenting the commercialization of NASA-generated technology, which has showcased 1,700 significant spinoffs that benefit the public every day. 43¶ Products, services, or processes that evolve into a NASA spinoff can have a significant impact on a local economy, creating jobs and efficiencies. An example of a spinoff that is being exploited in Florida with a promising potential for economic stimulation is an automobile prototype to be manufactured by the Florida-based company known as Rivian Motors. Rivian Motors is currently developing a 60 miles-per-gallon sports car with help from NASA engineers and hopes to deliver 1,200 jobs to Florida’s Space Coast.44¶ Other Emerging Opportunities for the Florida Space Industry¶ Space Tourism¶ Although the space tourism market has yet to develop in the U.S., Florida offers an optimal environment to support such an industry when the time comes. The 2010 Space Florida Spaceport Master Plan (Spaceport Plan) acknowledges the emerging market for U.S. commercial space tourism, which encompasses space travel to both orbital and suborbital levels.45 The Spaceport Plan provides the following description of commercial suborbital space tourism:¶ Typically the goal of suborbital space tourism is to take paying passengers up above an altitude of 100 km (62 miles), which is the internationally recognized boundary of space known as the Karman line, and then promptly return them back to earth. ¶ During this suborbital flight the passengers will experience a few minutes of weightlessness and be able to see the curvature of the earth along with the blackness of space.46¶ Achieving orbital space travel is much more difficult, which entails staying in space for a full orbit and

requires a significant velocity boost above that required for suborbital trips. Florida’s current spaceport infrastructure to accommodate space tourism activities includes the spaceports at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and at Cecil Field in Jacksonville.¶ 47 Space Florida’s vision for the future of space tourism in Florida involves the operation of three spaceports. To supplement Cecil Field Spaceport in north Florida and the Cape Canaveral Spaceport in central Florida, Space Florida envisions the utilization of a third not yet developed spaceport in south Florida to provide options for take-offs and landings contingent on weather conditions. Although developments are slow in the space tourism industry and the U.S. has yet to host such an event, experts suggest within the next few years the U.S. will experience advancement in this industry in which Florida will have the infrastructure, workforce, and the physical environment to support it.

Space industry k2 space col – outweighs all other impacts-resource wars -super volcanoes-air pollution-diseaseCollins and Autino, 10 - * Life & Environmental Science, Azabu University AND ** Andromeda Inc., Italy (Patrick and Adriano, “What the growth of a space tourism industry could contribute to employment, economic growth, environmental protection, education, culture and world peace,” Acta Astronautica 66 (2010) 1553–1562, science direct)

The major source of social friction, including international friction, has surely always been unequal access to resources. People fight to control the valuable resources on and under the land, and in and under the sea. The natural resources of Earth are limited in quantity, and economically accessible resources even more so. As the population grows, and demand grows for a higher material standard of living, industrial activity grows exponentially. The threat of resources becoming scarce has led to the concept of ‘‘Resource Wars’’. Having begun long ago with wars to control the gold and diamonds of Africa and South America, and oil in the Middle East, the current phase is at centre stage of world events today [37]. A particular danger of ‘‘resource wars ’’ is that , if the general public can be persuaded to support them, they may become impossible to stop as resources become increasingly scarce . Many commentators have noted the similarity of the language of US and UK government advocates of ‘‘war on terror’’ to the language of the novel ‘‘1984’’ which describes a dystopian future of endless, fraudulent war in which citizens are reduced to slaves.¶ 7.1. Expansion into near-Earth space is the only alternative to endless ‘‘resource wars’’¶ As an alternative to the ‘‘resource wars’’ already devastating many countries today, opening access to the unlimited resources of near-Earth space could clearly facilitate world peace and security . The US National Security Space Office, at the start of its report on the potential of space-based solar power (SSP) published in early 2007, stated: ‘‘Expanding human populations and declining natural resources are potential sources of local and strategic conflict in the 21st Century, and many see energy as the foremost threat to national security’’ [38]. The report ended by encouraging urgent research on the feasibility of SSP: ‘‘Considering the timescales that are involved, and the exponential growth of population and resource pressures within that same strategic period, it is imperative that this work for ‘‘drilling up’’ vs. drilling down for energy security begins immediately’’ [38].¶ Although the use of extra-terrestrial resources on a substantial scale may still be some decades

away, it is important to recognise that simply acknowledging its feasibility using known technology is the surest way of ending the threat of resource wars. That is, if it is assumed that the resources available for human use are limited to those on Earth, then it can be argued that resource wars are inescapable [22,37]. If, by contrast, it is assumed that the resources of space are economically accessible, this not only eliminates the need for resource wars, it can also preserve the benefits of civilisation which are being eroded today by ‘‘resource war-mongers’’, most notably the governments of the ‘‘Anglo-Saxon’’ countries and their ‘‘neo-con’’ advisers. It is also worth noting that the $1 trillion that these have already committed to wars in the Middle-East in the 21st century is orders of magnitude more than the public investment needed to aid companies sufficiently to start the commercial use of space resources.¶ Industrial and financial groups which profit from monopolistic control of terrestrial supplies of various natural resources, like those which profit from wars, have an economic interest in protecting their profitable situation. However, these groups’ continuing profits are justified neither by capitalism nor by democracy: they could be preserved only by maintaining the pretence that use of space resources is not feasible, and by preventing the development of low-cost space travel. Once the feasibility of low-cost space travel is understood, ‘‘resource wars’’ are clearly foolish as well as tragic. A visiting extra-terrestrial would be pityingly amused at the foolish antics of homo sapiens using longrange rockets to fight each other over dwindling terrestrial resources—rather than using the same rockets to travel in space and have the use of all the resources they need!¶ 7.2. High return in safety from extra-

terrestrial settlement¶ Investment in low-cost orbital access and other space infrastructure will

facilitate the establishment of settlements on the Moon, Mars, asteroids and in man-made space structures. In the first phase, development of new regulatory infrastructure in various Earth orbits, including property/usufruct rights, real estate, mortgage financing and insurance, traffic management, pilotage, policing and other services will enable the population living in Earth orbits to grow very large. Such activities aimed at making near-Earth space habitable are the logical extension of humans’ historical spread over the surface of the Earth. As trade spreads through near-Earth space, settlements are likely to follow, of which the inhabitants will add to the wealth of different cultures which humans have created in the many different environments in which they live.¶ Success of such extra-terrestrial settlements will have the additional benefit of reducing the danger of human extinction due to planet- wide or cosmic accidents [27]. These horrors include both man-made disasters such as nuclear war, plagues or growing pollution, and natural disasters such as super-volcanoes or asteroid impact. It is hard to think of any objective that is more important than preserving peace. Weapons developed in recent decades are so destructive, and have such horrific, long-term side-effects that their use should be discouraged as strongly as possible by the international community. Hence, reducing the incentive to use these weapons by rapidly developing the ability to use space-based resources on a large scale is surely equally important [11,16]. The achievement of this depends on low space travel costs which, at the present time, appear to be achievable only through the development of a vigorous space tourism industry.¶