energy alert 2008 has the climate change debate · pdf filedr john ledger energy alert 2008....

Energy Alert2008

HAS THE CLIMATE CHANGEDEBATE DISTRACTED US FROM

OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES?OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES?

John LedgerJohn LedgerDr John LedgerDr John Ledger Energy Alert 2008Energy Alert 2008

gg

Global WarmingGlobal Warming –– All the RageAll the RageGlobal Warming Global Warming All the Rage All the Rage

Climate change and Climate change and related subjects takerelated subjects takerelated subjects take related subjects take up a disproportionate up a disproportionate amount of humanamount of humanamount of human amount of human energy and attentionenergy and attention

Other importantOther importantOther important Other important issues have dropped issues have dropped off the agendaoff the agendaoff the agendaoff the agenda

Some basic flaws in Some basic flaws in li i hli i hclimate science haveclimate science have

been papered overbeen papered over

Dr John LedgerDr John Ledger Energy Alert 2008Energy Alert 2008

Global WarmingGlobal Warming –– All the DramaAll the DramaG oba Wa gG oba Wa g t e a at e a a

The polarization ofThe polarization ofThe polarization of The polarization of opinions on climate opinions on climate h h l d ih h l d ichange has resulted in a change has resulted in a

divided scientific divided scientific community.community.

Modern temperatureModern temperatureModern temperature Modern temperature records show clearly that records show clearly that t t h bt t h btemperatures have beentemperatures have beenrisingrising

What is not clear is the What is not clear is the role of human activitiesrole of human activities


role of human activitiesrole of human activities

Dr Mann’s Hockey Stick Dr Mann’s Hockey Stick -- 19981998


Dr Mann’s Hockey Stick CriticsDr Mann’s Hockey Stick Criticsyy

Top graph is tree ringTop graph is tree ringTop graph is tree ring Top graph is tree ring proxies using Mann’s proxies using Mann’s

h d lh d lmethodologymethodology

Lower graph is the sameLower graph is the sameLower graph is the same Lower graph is the same data using the “correct” data using the “correct” methodology (accordingmethodology (accordingmethodology (according methodology (according to the critics)to the critics)

They say the hockey stick They say the hockey stick is a product of the is a product of the ppstatistical methodologystatistical methodology


IPCC’s view of temperatures in 1990 before the IPCC’s view of temperatures in 1990 before the H k Sti k bli ti i 1998H k Sti k bli ti i 1998Hockey Stick publication in 1998Hockey Stick publication in 1998


IPCC’s view of temperatures nowIPCC’s view of temperatures nowpp


Medieval Warm Period Censored?Medieval Warm Period Censored?


Another view: Another view: www.icecap.uswww.icecap.uspp


Some views from the Wegman reportSome views from the Wegman reportg pg p

QQ -- How central is the work of Dr Mann andHow central is the work of Dr Mann andQQ How central is the work of Dr Mann and How central is the work of Dr Mann and his associates to the consensus on the his associates to the consensus on the t t d?t t d?temperature record?temperature record?

AA –– The work has been politicized by the IPCCThe work has been politicized by the IPCCp yp yand other public forums and has generated an and other public forums and has generated an unfortunate level of consensus in the publicunfortunate level of consensus in the publicunfortunate level of consensus in the public unfortunate level of consensus in the public and political sectors and has been accepted to and political sectors and has been accepted to

l t t t th Withi th h l ll t t t th Withi th h l la large extent as truth. Within the scholarlya large extent as truth. Within the scholarlycommunity and in certain conservative community and in certain conservative sectors of the popular press, there is at least sectors of the popular press, there is at least some level of skepticism.some level of skepticism.


some level of skepticism.some level of skepticism.

The relationship between increasing temperatures The relationship between increasing temperatures and weather is far from clearand weather is far from clear –– indeed ambiguousindeed ambiguousand weather is far from clear and weather is far from clear indeed ambiguous.indeed ambiguous.All “unusual” weather is simplistically ascribed to All “unusual” weather is simplistically ascribed to

climate change Politicians and journalistsclimate change Politicians and journalistsclimate change. Politicians and journalists climate change. Politicians and journalists generally have no understanding of the long term generally have no understanding of the long term

i bili f i f ll di bili f i f ll dvariability of rainfall and temperaturevariability of rainfall and temperature


Has South Africa’s Climate Changed?Has South Africa’s Climate Changed?Has South Africa s Climate Changed?Has South Africa s Climate Changed?

S th Af i h th l t t f i f llS th Af i h th l t t f i f llSouth Africa has the longest set of rainfallSouth Africa has the longest set of rainfalldata for the continent.data for the continent.

There is no evidence at all of any There is no evidence at all of any ti bl d t f lti bl d t f l t (t (noticeable departure from longnoticeable departure from long--term (21term (21

year) cycles of dry and wet years.year) cycles of dry and wet years.y ) y y yy ) y y y

Climate change proponents say the Climate change proponents say the j i h h d ill lj i h h d ill lprojections they have made will only startprojections they have made will only start

being felt at the end of the 21being felt at the end of the 21stst CenturyCenturybeing felt at the end of the 21being felt at the end of the 21 CenturyCentury

Why should we believe them?Why should we believe them?


Has the Obsession ith Global ClimateHas the Obsession ith Global ClimateHas the Obsession with Global Climate Has the Obsession with Global Climate Change blinkered us to other problems?Change blinkered us to other problems?Change blinkered us to other problems?Change blinkered us to other problems?

The reliance of our economy on electricity?The reliance of our economy on electricity?

Th li f il?Th li f il?The reliance of our economy on oil?The reliance of our economy on oil?

The declining agricultural sector?The declining agricultural sector?The declining agricultural sector?The declining agricultural sector?

The growing human population?The growing human population?g g p pg g p p

The depletion of marine resources?The depletion of marine resources?

The degradation of fresh water ecosystems?The degradation of fresh water ecosystems?


South Africa’s ElectricitySouth Africa’s Electricity88% from Burning Fossil Fuel88% from Burning Fossil Fuel


Giant CoalGiant Coal--fired Stationsfired StationsMpumalanga HighveldMpumalanga Highveld


S th Af i E MiS th Af i E MiSouth African Energy MixSouth African Energy Mix –– 20052005

Base load generationBase load generation

ll fi d t ti 66 MWfi d t ti 66 MW13 coal13 coal--fired stations: 32,066 MWfired stations: 32,066 MW

1 nuclear power station: 1,800 MW1 nuclear power station: 1,800 MW1 nuclear power station: 1,800 MW1 nuclear power station: 1,800 MW

Peak load generationPeak load generation

6 hydro6 hydro--electric stations: 600 MWelectric stations: 600 MW6 hydro6 hydro--electric stations: 600 MWelectric stations: 600 MW

2 gas turbine stations: 342 MW2 gas turbine stations: 342 MW

2 pumped storage schemes: 1,400 MW 2 pumped storage schemes: 1,400 MW


The Environmental CostThe Environmental Costof Electricity from Coalof Electricity from Coal

For every Kilowatt hour (kWh)For every Kilowatt hour (kWh)

0.54 kg of coal is burnt0.54 kg of coal is burnt0.54 kg of coal is burnt0.54 kg of coal is burnt

1.4 liters of water is used1.4 liters of water is used

160 gm of ash produced160 gm of ash produced

0 98 kg of Carbon Dioxide released0 98 kg of Carbon Dioxide released0.98 kg of Carbon Dioxide released0.98 kg of Carbon Dioxide released

8.46 g of Sulphur Dioxide released8.46 g of Sulphur Dioxide released

4.21 g Nitrous Oxide released4.21 g Nitrous Oxide released


Sustaining economic growthSustaining economic growthg gg g


S t i i i th ???S t i i i th ???Sustaining economic growth ???Sustaining economic growth ???

Government refused Eskom permission to Government refused Eskom permission to b ild ti l tb ild ti l tbuild new generating plantbuild new generating plant

Said IPPs would provide new capacitySaid IPPs would provide new capacitySaid IPPs would provide new capacity Said IPPs would provide new capacity

But no IPPs interested in competing with But no IPPs interested in competing with Eskom’s low pricesEskom’s low prices

At l t st tAt l t st tAt a very late stage, governmentAt a very late stage, governmentannounced programme to build new plantannounced programme to build new plantp g pp g p


Thi t t i i 200Thi t t i i 200Things start going wrong in 2007Things start going wrong in 2007

KoebergKoeberg –– generator failure generator failure –– Cape Town Cape Town dd bi ti !bi ti !goes downgoes down –– big time!big time!

Huge business losses due to power cutsHuge business losses due to power cutsHuge business losses due to power cutsHuge business losses due to power cuts

No new capacity readyNo new capacity ready

Major political row boils over power lossMajor political row boils over power loss

i d d h k di d hi d d h k di d hSA reminded that Eskom predicted thatSA reminded that Eskom predicted thatthe country would run out of electricity inthe country would run out of electricity inthe country would run out of electricity in the country would run out of electricity in 20072007


Things keep going wrong in 2008Things keep going wrong in 2008Things keep going wrong in 2008Things keep going wrong in 2008

Serious loadSerious load--shedding experienced in January 2008shedding experienced in January 2008Serious loadSerious load shedding experienced in January 2008 shedding experienced in January 2008

Traffic chaos as rolling blackouts affect lightsTraffic chaos as rolling blackouts affect lights

Business and investor confidence sagsBusiness and investor confidence sags

Doubts about Eskom’s maintenance capacityDoubts about Eskom’s maintenance capacityDoubts about Eskom s maintenance capacityDoubts about Eskom s maintenance capacity

3000 MW of PLANNED outages3000 MW of PLANNED outages

5000 MW of UNPLANNED outages5000 MW of UNPLANNED outages

South Africans told to “use less electricity”South Africans told to “use less electricity”South Africans told to use less electricitySouth Africans told to use less electricity

MINES CLOSED BY LACK OF ELECTRICITY!MINES CLOSED BY LACK OF ELECTRICITY!


What is Eskom doing?What is Eskom doing?gg

Building two big new coal power stationsBuilding two big new coal power stationsBuilding two big new coal power stationsBuilding two big new coal power stations

“De“De--mothballing” three old power stationsmothballing” three old power stationsg pg p

Building Ingula Pumped Storage Scheme Building Ingula Pumped Storage Scheme

B ilt t OCGT it t Atl tiB ilt t OCGT it t Atl tiBuilt two OCGT units at AtlantisBuilt two OCGT units at Atlantis

Building one OCGT at Mossel BayBuilding one OCGT at Mossel BayBuilding one OCGT at Mossel BayBuilding one OCGT at Mossel Bay

Seeking proposals for new nuclear plantSeeking proposals for new nuclear plant

Building 100 MW wind farmBuilding 100 MW wind farm

Building 100 MW solar thermal plantBuilding 100 MW solar thermal plantBuilding 100 MW solar thermal plantBuilding 100 MW solar thermal plant

Rationing power Rationing power –– 10% cuts for all?10% cuts for all?


E kE k i i i i ?i i i i ?EskomEskom –– spinning or winning?spinning or winning?


The trouble with coal…..The trouble with coal…..

MedupiMedupi –– 4 500 MW4 500 MWMedupiMedupi 4 500 MW4 500 MW

KusileKusile –– 4 500 MW4 500 MW

CamdenCamden –– 1 600MW1 600MW

GrootvleiGrootvlei 1 200 MW1 200 MWGrootvleiGrootvlei –– 1 200 MW1 200 MW

KomatiKomati –– 1 000 MW1 000 MW

TotalTotal –– 12 800 MW of new fossil fuel burn12 800 MW of new fossil fuel burn

P blP bl b i l blb i l blProblem 1Problem 1 –– burning a valuable resourceburning a valuable resource

Problem 2Problem 2 –– global climate changeglobal climate changeProblem 2 Problem 2 global climate changeglobal climate change

Problem 3 Problem 3 –– threats to biodiversitythreats to biodiversity


The trouble with coal? It’s here to stay!The trouble with coal? It’s here to stay!


Global Electricity Generation Global Electricity Generation yy19701970 -- 20002000

35

40

25

30

15

20%

1970

5

10 2000

0Coal Hydro Oil Gas Nuclear

1970 38 4 21 24 5 12 1 3 31970 38.4 21 24.5 12.1 3.3

2000 38.4 17.9 8.9 31.6 17.1


Eskom’s Nuclear PlansEskom’s Nuclear Plans


P ti l i t tiP ti l i t tiPractical interventionsPractical interventions

Electricity will cost much more in futureElectricity will cost much more in future

Individuals and companies need to use Individuals and companies need to use lessless –– common rands and cents!common rands and cents!lessless common rands and cents!common rands and cents!

We need to survive regular power cutsWe need to survive regular power cuts

The problem will be with us for a long timeThe problem will be with us for a long time

h i kih i kiWe have an opportunity to start makingWe have an opportunity to start makingbetter use of renewable energybetter use of renewable energybetter use of renewable energybetter use of renewable energy

Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency –– means using lessmeans using less


Energy Efficiency (EE)Energy Efficiency (EE)Energy Efficiency (EE)Energy Efficiency (EE)

LightingLighting –– Compact Fluorescent LampsCompact Fluorescent Lamps

LightingLighting LEDsLEDs 3W = 11W = 60W3W = 11W = 60WLightingLighting –– LEDsLEDs -- 3W = 11W = 60W3W = 11W = 60W

AppliancesAppliances –– energy efficiency ratingsenergy efficiency ratingspppp gy y ggy y g

RefrigeratorsRefrigerators –– big consumers unless newbig consumers unless new

BuildingsBuildings –– no cost, low cost interventionsno cost, low cost interventions

B ildi sB ildi s d si d i s l tid si d i s l tiBuildingsBuildings –– design and insulationdesign and insulation

BehaviourBehaviour –– switch off lights, heaters etcswitch off lights, heaters etcBehaviourBehaviour switch off lights, heaters etcswitch off lights, heaters etc

TimersTimers –– for pumps and lights etcfor pumps and lights etc


Using less hot water means burningUsing less hot water means burningg gg gless coal less coal –– hihi--tech showerstech showers

Special design Special design based on based on turbulenceturbulenceengineeringengineeringprovides significantprovides significantprovides significant provides significant savings while still savings while still giving excellentgiving excellentgiving excellent giving excellent quality showerquality shower

CostCost –– about R350about R350


CostCost about R350about R350

Renewable Energy (RE)Renewable Energy (RE)Renewable Energy (RE)Renewable Energy (RE)

solarsolar--thermal generation thermal generation –– big plantsbig plants

wind generation wind generation –– uneven potentialuneven potential

bb l ll ll ll lbiogasbiogas –– not practical on small scalenot practical on small scale

photovoltaicsphotovoltaics EXPENSIVE!EXPENSIVE!photovoltaicsphotovoltaics -- EXPENSIVE!EXPENSIVE!

solar cookingsolar cooking –– HIGH POTENTIAL !HIGH POTENTIAL !solar cooking solar cooking HIGH POTENTIAL !HIGH POTENTIAL !

biomassbiomass –– very good for space heating !very good for space heating !

solar water heating solar water heating –– FIRST CHOICE !FIRST CHOICE !


Solar thermal Solar thermal –– big potentialbig potentialg pg p


WindWind


PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics –– electricity from lightelectricity from lightPhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics electricity from lightelectricity from light

Continuing high demand from Germany Continuing high demand from Germany d J f PVd J f PVand Japan for PV resourcesand Japan for PV resources

Global shortage of optical grade siliconGlobal shortage of optical grade siliconGlobal shortage of optical grade siliconGlobal shortage of optical grade silicon

This keeps prices highThis keeps prices high

FeedFeed--In Tariff working in EuropeIn Tariff working in Europe

b idi d l i l ib idi d l i l iLarge subsidies and legislationLarge subsidies and legislation

Too expensive for Africa at present exceptToo expensive for Africa at present exceptToo expensive for Africa at present except Too expensive for Africa at present except for offfor off--grid applications.grid applications.


PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics –– Island HomeIsland HomePhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics Island HomeIsland Home

36 x 80 watt modules generate 2880 watts36 x 80 watt modules generate 2880 watts

2 x evacuated tube SWH


PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics –– Island HomeIsland HomePhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics Island HomeIsland Home

Y ll bY ll bYellow boxesYellow boxescontrol systemcontrol systemyy

Sunny Boy and Sunny Boy and S I l dS I l dSunny IslandSunny Islandfrom SMAfrom SMA

5 000 watt 5 000 watt iiinverterinverter

Data logging &Data logging &Data logging & Data logging & recordingrecording


PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics –– Island HomeIsland Home

Battery bankBattery bankBattery bank Battery bank stores 19 200 stores 19 200 wattswatts

LPG gas forLPG gas forLPG gas for LPG gas for cooking and cooking and backup waterbackup waterheatingheatingheatingheating

System costSystem cost

R300 000R300 000


PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics –– Worth ConsideringWorth Consideringgg

World shortage of optical grade siliconWorld shortage of optical grade siliconWorld shortage of optical grade silicon World shortage of optical grade silicon will catch up in 2009.will catch up in 2009.

World production of photovoltaic modules World production of photovoltaic modules should meet global demand in 2010should meet global demand in 2010should meet global demand in 2010.should meet global demand in 2010.

The prices of PV should start falling byThe prices of PV should start falling byp g yp g ythen.then.

BUTBUT th j ti d b thth j ti d b thBUTBUT –– these projections were made by thethese projections were made by theSarasin Bank of Switzerland BEFORE the Sarasin Bank of Switzerland BEFORE the latest oil price increases!latest oil price increases!


Solar CookingSolar CookingSolar CookingSolar CookingSunstove and T16, rightSunstove and T16, right


Solar CookingSolar Cooking1.2 metre parabolic, hot bag1.2 metre parabolic, hot bag


Solar CookingSolar CookingSolar CookingSolar Cooking2 metre parabolic, Big Vrystaat Macrowave! 2 metre parabolic, Big Vrystaat Macrowave!


E t d T b S l W t H tE t d T b S l W t H tEvacuated Tube Solar Water HeatersEvacuated Tube Solar Water Heaters


Flat plate solar water heatersFlat plate solar water heatersFlat plate solar water heatersFlat plate solar water heaters


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