energy and the future of humanityfaculty.uncfsu.edu/jmattox/energy/recyclique-2012.pdf · 2010 iea...
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Energy and the Future of Humanity John R. Mattox, Fayetteville State University (UNC-FSU)
Peak Oil Simplified
resource depleted
Time
Pro
duct
ion
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is
reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. The
concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the
combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.
Declining production
production gap!
Time
Pro
duct
ion
Peak oil in detail, 2003 Base Case Scenario
http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/
2010 IEA Annual Report specified that the global production peak for conventional oil was 2006
Hydrofracturing
Henry Jacoby, MIT Faculty member, published something to the effect of:
In treating shale gas as a "bridge" to a low carbon future there are risks to the
development of low-carbon technologies.
In the inaugrial edition of Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy
Air sampling by NOAA over Colorado Finds 4%
Methane Leakage, More Than Double Industry
Claims
2011 study by Tom Wigley of the Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) concluded:
The most important result, however, in accord with
the above authors, is that, unless leakage rates for
new methane can be kept below 2%, substituting gas
for coal is not an effective means for reducing the
magnitude of future climate change.
Energy Reserves and Resources
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
(Exa)J
Oil
Rsv
Oil
Res
Gas
Rsv
Gas
Res
Coal
Rsv
Coal
Res
Unconv
Conv
Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr) Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)
Oil 40-78 51-151
Gas 68-176 207-590
Coal 224 2160
Rsv=Reserves
Res=Resources
Atmospheric CO2
As of September 2012: 391 ppm
The Greenhouse Effect
Left map: sea ice extent (>15% ice). Right: sea ice concentration (%). Purple line: climatologic extent (1979-2000). Data: 17 September 2012.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado
IPCC 4th Report
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
850 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A2) 680 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A1B) 550 ppm CO2 in 2100 (B1) Year 2000 constant concentration 20th century
4oC
2100 CO2 conc.
B1: 550 ppm
A1B : 680
A2 : 850
Game Over for the Climate By JAMES HANSEN
GLOBAL warming isn’t a prediction. It is happening.
That is why I was so troubled to read a recent interview
with President Obama in Rolling Stone in which he said
that Canada would exploit the oil in its vast tar sands
reserves “regardless of what we do.”
If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be game
over for the climate. Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand
saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of
carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire
history…
Op-Ed Contribution, NY Times, May 9, 2012
Global Warming Status
1. Knowledge Gap Between - What is Understood (scientists)
- What is Known (public)
2. Planetary Emergency - Climate Inertia Warming in Pipeline
- Tipping Points Could Lose Control
3. Bad News & Good News - CO2 Already in Dangerous Zone
- Multiple Benefits of Solution
Climate Tipping Points
1. Ice Sheet Disintegration - Ocean Warming Ice Shelves Melt
Ice Streams Surge Disintegration
2. Species Extermination - Shifting Climate Zones, Multiple Stresses,
Species Interdependencies
3. Methane Hydrate ‘frozen methane’ - In Tundra & On Continental Shelves
- Depends On Ocean & Ice Sheets
China has the largest fossil fuel emissions today.
However, climate change is driven by cumulative emissions, so
developed nations, especially the U.S., have greatest responsibility.
Fee & Dividend
Fee: Collected at Domestic Mine/Port of Entry
Covers all Oil, Gas, Coal No Leakage
Dividend: Equal Shares to All Legal Residents
Not One Dime to the Government.
Merits:
Transparent. Market-based. Stimulates Innovation.
Does Not Enlarge Government.
Leaves Energy Decisions to Individuals.
A Conservative Energy & Climate Plan.
Hansen, Fig. 1. CO2 emissions by fossil fuels (1 ppm CO2 ~ 2.12 GtC).
• Solar
• Wind
• Nuclear
• Biomass
• Ocean/Tides
• Hydroelectric, Geothermal
Potential Carbon-Free Energy Sources
… a sensible transition energy plan will have to
emphasize energy conservation above all. It also
raises questions about the sustainability of growth
per se, both in terms of human population
numbers and economic activity.
from Richard Heinberg,
Report: Searching for a Miracle:
‘Net Energy’ Limits & the Fate of Industrial Society,
Post Carbon Institute & International Forum on Globalization -
September 2009
Look ma, I just lost 4000 lbs.
Advantages of a bicycle commute
200 lb passenger
10 lbs of freight
30 lb vehicle
200 lb passenger
10 lbs of freight
4295 lb vehicle
Auto/bicycle energy & carbon comparison
2 HP peak, 0.2 HP average for 40 minutes
(Professor Mattox commuting 5 miles to UNC-FSU),
uses 0.1 kWh of energy per round-trip.
Net carbon dioxide emission, NONE! (eating
food grown locally and sustainably).
Also helps to maintain health!
114 HP peak, 35 HP average for 20 minutes
(commuting 5 miles to UNC-FSU),
uses 9 kWh of energy per round-trip.
Carbon dioxide emission, 9.7 lbs per round-trip
(1,700 lbs per year, ~6000 tons per year for all
UNC-FSU faculty, staff, and students).