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Energy Cris is Is There A Way Out???

Aymen Ijaz

Scorching summer heat coupled with excruciating 18-20 hours scheduled andunscheduled power outages have brought the protesters onto the streets all across thecountry. The energy crisis which sprouted in 2007-2008, turning into a serious problemin 2009-2010 hampering the state economy last year, has hit again this year with thepeak demand of 17,000 MW of electricity. Presently, the hand production is only9,000-10,000 MW leading to the average shortfall of around 7000MW, thus resulting inimmense load shedding in rural and urban areas.Few of the genuine reasons behind such shortages firstly include: low hydro poweravailability due to drop in power production at Tarbela, where only 9 out of 15 units areoperational because of dead drop in water level. Second from 1990s to 2005 a pricehike of 30% to 70% in the furnace oil (mainly used fuel source to produce thermalelectricity) and lastly the governments inability to pay the fuel cost to the IndependentPower Producers (IPPs) and rental plants creating a high circular debt of around Rs.400 billion. Pakistan State Oil (PSO) made 40% cuts in supplying furnace oil togeneration companies like Hubco, Kot Addu Power Company and the Karachi ElectricSupply Company (KESC) which resulted in decline in Wapdas thermal powerproduction. The government has recently provided the PSO with Rs.3 billion to relievethe circular debt and continue the FO supplies to the generating companies.

The National Energy Conference held in April 2012, dashed down public hopes whichwas nothing but an opportunity for the ill fated politicians to whine and blame theprevious governments for their false energy policies. However, focus should be onenergy generation than on energy preservation. Ironically, the nation is perturbed withenergy crisis while our leaders have their own agendas to work on. Statements of ourleaders are depressing enough to add up in chaotic situation, for instance, PunjabChief Minister Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif recently said that the energy crisis was theresult of plundering of corrupt leaders and any dent in Punjab economy due to energycrisis could result in a major blow to entire economy. According to him, Punjabcontributes an overwhelming share in the GDP. Similarly, Pakistan Muslim League (Q)leader Chaudhry Parvez Elahi has said that so-called Khadam-e-A'ala was responsiblefor the electricity load shedding in Punjab. On a serious note, by opposing the Shujat'sformula in the Energy Conference, Punjab CM Shahbaz Sharif has clearly showninsincerity with the people of Punjab. Tehrik-e-Insaaf protesters are also busy incarrying out rallies against the government negligence towards ongoing energy crisisand power outrages in the country.

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Realistically speaking, energy crisis is not an incurable problem. Number of foreignassistance has been offered to Pakistan to overcome this ever increasing problem of power crisis. The World Bank has allocated $1.8 billion for Pakistan's developmentprojects and has agreed to finance construction of a multi-year Dasu dam, with a 1500MW power generation capacity, in Kohistan area on Indus River. In the line of same

crisis, there is an Iranian offer of 1,000 MW of energy supply. Later the government isready to make a deal with Iran to increase this supply to 4000 MW. Two significantGas Pipeline projects like TAPI (Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India) and Iran-Pakistan (IP) are under way for energy production in Pakistan. Pak-India Energy Tradeis a positive initiative through which Pakistan can get 35% cheaper oil.

Pakistan has potential for trade with Brazil, one of the worlds largest hydel powersgenerating country, in the field of alternative energy and hydel power generation. TheUS funded $250 million project, Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Productivity ImprovementProgram Project ((PIPIPP) is aimed at maximum productivity of energy out of irrigationwater. Pakistan is collaborating with China particularly in civilian nuclear energy and

hydro power generation projects. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani at Boao Forumfor Asia called for setting up an umbrella of "Pakistan-China Power Cooperation". InSindh, 1200 MW imported Coal Fired Project and 250 MW Wind Power Project areready to be launched with Malaysian assistance to meet Pakistans future electricityneeds. Similarly, a South Korean firm has also pledged to provide 300 megawatts of electricity by solar means.

At Domestic level, three mega power projects have been approved by the governmentin order to generate electricity in Khyber Pakhtunkhuwah. Sarhad Hydel DevelopmentOrganization (SHYDO) has recently approved 36.6 Megawatt power project at DaralKhwar, 153 megawatt power projects in Mataltan (Swat) and 84 megawatt projects atLavi (Chitral). Another hydropower project of Tarbela IV will enhance Pakistansenergy security by adding low-carbon for power generation. According to the sources,the Punjab government is also planning to start a short-term plan of generating 5,000megawatts of additional electricity by operating Nandipur Thermal Power Project, andutilizing sugarcane waste. The government should provide sufficient funds for theDasu power project, Diamer Bhasha dam, Munda dam, Gomal Zam, Satpara powerproject and Kurram Tungi dam to generate electricity.

The Finance Minister, Abdul Hafeez Sheikh, has promised the release of Rs 900million for the Thar Coal gasification project to initially produce 100MW of electricitythrough coal conversion into gas. Similarly, the Thar coal reserves have the potentialto generate 50,000 megawatts of electricity. Pakistan also possesses a large solarenergy potential as it lies on global solar energy belt. The Ministry of Water and Powerhas issued nine Letters of Intent (LOIs) to different Solar Independent PowerProducers (IPPs) to produce cumulative capacity of 228 MW electricity through solarprojects established at different places in Punjab, Southern Punjab, Sindh, Cholistan,

Taxila, Kasur, District Thatta and Lodhran.At Public level, steps should be taken to conserve electricity by using innovativeheating and cooking systems having high potential for saving energy. Usage of lightswith solar photovoltaic technology coupled with light-emitting diode (LED) could be a

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viable option to deal with dilemma of energy shortfall. One of the noted US scientistsDr Raziq Yaqub has called for modernizing the existing power grid in Pakistan to helpmeet the countrys growing energy demand. The Pakistan Council for RenewableEnergy (PCRET) has already taken initiative to search the potential of renewableenergy sources for commercial and household use. In the back drop of all such

expected productive measures and development projects in the energy sector by thegovernment at foreign, domestic and public level, the prevalent pessimism andfrustration could be overcome regarding energy crisis. Political will and viable NationalEnergy policy are the best alternative solutions to bottle the genie of this lingeringenergy crisis. The practical implementation of all the above mentioned initiatives is theonly imperative solution to find a way out of this energy crisis which seems to begetting intense with each passing day.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)