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© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #1
Global Final Building Heating and Cooling Energy Use until 2050
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #2
Final Building Heating and Cooling Energy Demand Scenarios until 2050
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #3
Building Final and Primary Energy Use in Selected Countries in 2003
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000Commercial
Residential
USJapanEU-15China IndiaBrazil
Prim
aryAE
C(TWh)
Building site energy consumption, 2003
0
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%heat
electricity
biomass
natural gas
petroleum
coal
USJapanEU-15IndiaChinaBrazil
Residential building’s site energy by fuel, 2003
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000Commercial
Residential
USJapanEU-15China IndiaBrazil
Prim
aryAEC
(TWh)
Building primary energy consumption, 2003
0
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%heat
electricity
biomass
natural gas
petroleum
coal
USJapanEU-15IndiaChinaBrazil
Commercial building’s site energy by fuel
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #4
Total Annual Final Energy Use In The Residential and Commercial/Public Sectors
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #5
Final Heating and Cooling Specific Energy Consumption by Region and Building Type
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
100
200
300 Centrally Planned
Asia
0
100
200
300Africa
0
100
200
300Latin
America
0
100
200
300Middle East
0
100
200
300Pacific Asia 0
100
200
300 South Asia
0
100
200
300 Former Soviet Union
0
100
200
300Pacific OECD
0
100
200
300 Eastern Europe
0
100
200
300North America
0
100
200
300 Western Europe
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #6
Primary Energy Use in US Commercial and Residential Buildings
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #7
Share of Consumption Categories in Total Energy Use
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #8
Share of End-Uses by Appliance in Electricity Consumption in Delhi, India
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #9
Residential Energy Use in Different Developed Countries
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #10
Electricity Consumption of Air-Conditioning in 25 Flats of a Residential Building in Beijing
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #11
Trend of Total Building Final Energy Use per m2 in USA and Japan as Compared to China
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #12
World Total Final Energy Consumption by Fuel in the Residential (left) and Commercial and Public (right) Sectors
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #13
Direct and Indirect Primary Energy Use of the Average US Citizen
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0 20 40 60 80 100
Food & Beverages
Restaurants,Hotels
Alcohol,Tobacco
PrivateTransport
Building construction
Furniture, Equipment, Maintenance
Utilities
Recreation, Culture
Micellenaous Goods and Services
Clothing/Footwear
Communications
Health
Education
GJ per capita and year
Direct
Energy losses
Indirect
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 50 100 150
Ope
ratin
g ene
rgy [
kWh/
m2 y
]
Embodied energy [kWh/m2y]
Residential Buildings
Commercial Buildings
Primary Embodied and Operating Energy of Buildings
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #15
Annualized Operational Energy Use vs. Annualized Embodied Energy Use for Polystyrene Insulation of Differing Thickness
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #16
GHG Emissions Associated with the Purchase, Use and Disposal of Electric and Electronic Equipment in Norwegian Households
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #17
COP Values Of Air Conditioners in Japan Over Time
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
'70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05
CO
P Va
lue
Heating Cooling
Introduction of Top Runner
approach
‘07
5.35
4.85
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #18
A Biolite Stove
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #19
Energy Base Building
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #20
Learning Curve Showing the Progressive Decrease in the Incremental Cost of Meeting the Passive House Standard for the Central Unit of Row Houses
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #21
World Space Heating and Cooling Final Energy Use
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PWh/year
Sub-Optimal State of the Art
32.5%
-46.4%79%
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #22
Space Heating and Cooling Final Energy Use
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/year
OECD90 ASIA REF LAC AFR
State of the art scenario Sub-optimal scenario
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #23
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearNorth AMerica
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearNorth AMerica
Sub - Optimal Scenario
NewRetrofitStandard
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/year
Western EuropeState of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearWestern Europe
Sub-Optimal Scenario
New
Retrofit
Standard
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/YearPAcific OECD
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/Year
PAcific OECDSub-Optimal Scenario
New
Retrofit
Standard
Comparison of the Two GEA Building Scenarios – OECD90
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #24
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearCentrally Planned AsiaSub-Optimal Scenario
NewRetrofitStandard
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearCentrally Planned Asia
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearSouth ASia
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/year
South ASiaSub-Optimal Scenario
NewRetrofitStandard
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearPacific ASia
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearPacific ASia
Sub-Optimal Scenario
NewRetrofitStandard
Comparison of the Two GEA Building Scenarios – ASIA
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #25
Comparison of the Two GEA Building Scenarios – REF
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
220
05
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearFormer Soviet Union
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearFormer Soviet UnionSub-Optimal Scenario
NewRetrofitStandard
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/year Eastern EUropeSub-Optimal Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/year
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #26
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearMiddle East and Africa
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearMiddle East and AfricaSub-Optimal Scenario
NewRetrofitStandard
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearLatin AMerica
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearLatin AMerica
Sub-Optimal Scenario
NewRetrofitStandard
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearAFRica
State of the Art Scenario
Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PWh/yearAFRica
Sub-Optimal Scenario
NewRetrofitStandard
Comparison of the Two GEA Building Scenarios – MEA, LAC and AFR
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #27
Cumulative Undiscounted Investment Costs and Energy Cost Savings
Energy End-Use: Buildings
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #28
Thermal Energy Use in the Global Building Sector
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3520
0520
50 "S
UB"
2050
"LO
W"
2005
2050
"Sup
ply"
2050
"Mix
"20
50 "E
ffici
ency
"20
0520
50 "B
AU"
2050
"Fac
tor 4
"20
0820
35 "C
urre
nt"
2035
"New
"20
0520
50 "S
low
"20
50 "F
ast"
2005
2050
"Slo
w"
2050
"Fas
t"20
0720
35 "B
ase"
2035
"Blu
e"20
0520
50 "B
ase"
2050
"Blu
eMap
"20
0520
30 "R
EF"
2030
"ALT
"
PWh
GEA-3CSEP
GEA WEO10Harvey
Low GDP
Harvey High GDP
WEO06ETP10 ETP08Laustsen
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #29
Appliance Electricity Demand in Base Case and High Efficiency Scenario
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh
Television
Standby
Refrigeration
Oven
Washing Machine
Fan
Efficiency Scenario
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #30
Average Values of Total Costs by Quality Of Fittings
Energy End-Use: Buildings
0
5
10
15
20
25
Overall costs
Energy cost
HighMediumLow
htnom/2
m/oruE
Quality
5.7% 5.8% 4.9%