Environment and climate: The space perspective

Dr. Simonetta Cheli

Head, Coordination Office of the ESA Earth Observation Programmes

21 December 2011, Rome

Point of departure: Earth from space

• Called a “fragile oasis”, Earth is our home with finite resources• Powered by the Sun• Newly “discovered” with the advent of the space age

The human race: ever growing

• According to the UN Population Reference Bureau, the world’s population is reaching the new milestone of 7 Billion in October 2011• The speed of growth is alarming, with estimated 9 Billion by mid-century

The human footprint: not just a metaphor

Credit: University of Heidelberg

Example 1: The global distribution of NO2 as an indicator of atmospheric pollution. Data are based on observations from Envisat. Correlation with human settlements

and (industrial) activity.

The human footprint: not just a metaphor

Example 2: Artificial surface patterns as result of human land use for agriculture / food production (Phoenix, Arizona; and Imperial Valley [USA]).

The human footprint: not just a metaphor

Credit: University of Sheffield

Example 3: Traces of human activity in hostile environments – soil irrigation in the southern Sahara as seen by the Envisat mission (detail).

Pollution over mega-cities

Smog over south-east China, © NASA Earth Observatory

The vantage of outer space

Credit: University of Sheffield

The advantage of satellite observations from space:

Perpetual observations

Global coverage

Short revisit cycles and long-term data sets

“Accessibility” through over-flight

Newest measurement technologies

International cooperation

In orbit: ESA Earth Observation missions

17 missions in space by 2015

More than 4000 projects worldwide use their data – increasing further

More than 100 Terabyte of data per year

30 partner missions

The discovery of the “System Earth”: Earth systems science

Earth system science seeks to integrate various fields of scientific study to understand the Earth as a system.

It considers interaction between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere (geosphere), biosphere, and cryosphere.

The IPCC Report 2007

– a 3.4°C increase in annual temperature (up to 3.7°C in spring), and

– a 23% decrease in winter rainfall, and

– a 13% decrease in spring rainfall

Precipitation: decrease in arid regions and increase in wet areas

Storms: significantly stronger

Sea level rise: up to 48cm until 2100

Global temperature increase between + 2.4 and 6.4 degrees until 2100

Point of departure: A changing environment

Surface air temperature anomalies for southern Africa until 2100

Africa: Predictions for the southern African region (averaged):

GMES: Global Monitoring for Environment & Security

Flagship programme of EU and ESA: European independency and contribution to GEO

The Sentinel-Satellites and partner missions will provide long-term space observations

7 satellite launches between 2013 and 2015 Services for a multitude of users and benefits

for all European citizens & beyond EC discusses extension of GMES Africa Open and Free Data Policy planned

The work of science communities and ESA for 11 selected ECVs has started

ESA is coordinating the programme at international level, e.g. with EUMETSAT and EU

The Climate Change Summits in Copenhagen & Cancun have underlined the importance of this activity

The “ESA Climate Change Initiative”

Surface temperature changes based on natural forcings only (blue) or natural and anthropogenic forcings (pink); observation average (black)

Source: IPCC 2007

UN Development Goals

Water: the “ blue gold” of the 21st century

The geopolitics of climate change: stability, security of supply

Access to and use of energy

From global warming to global warring

Climate Change: a threat to security – demanding better preparedness

Climate Change and Security: an inherent link

Climate variations influence: agricultural productivity resource availability health risk migration patternsand ultimately conflict level of societies* ‘2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility’, Büntgen et al., Science, 2011

A recent study in NATURE (Hsiang et al., Aug. 2011) found that in El Nino years, twice as many civil wars occurred on global level, suggesting that there is a link

between climatic developments and societal stress levels.

Civil conflicts and climate: an association

Example: The Dafur Crisis – assistance from orbit

• Satellite maps and geographical information products directly for users in the field• Use of ten sensors from nine spacecraft• Envisat's ASAR identifies roads, shows land relief and is sensitive to the presence of water• Maps are produced within 10-12 hours of satellite image acquisition• Information is supplied to NGOs to intervene more effectively

Conclusions

Spaceship Earth: not only a metaphor

Climate and environmental variations have a fundamental impact on how we live, behave and plan our actions

Worsening conditions lead to stress on societies

Space technologies help to assess the state of the planet and understand its functioning

Space applications help the sustainable management of food and water resources and to release stress on societies

ESRIN – the ESA centre in Italy

Some 30.000 visitors per year and a wealth of international scientific conferences

642 staff and contractors are working on site

– Earth Observation– Vega Department– Corporate Informatics– Telecommunications– Contracts, Site, Personnel,

Communication– ASI Science Data Centre– ESA Security Office