esa sw application – november 2005 esa space weather application initiative a. hilgers, a. glover,...

ESA SW Application – November 2005ESA SW Application – November 2005

ESA Space WeatherESA Space WeatherApplication initiativeApplication initiative

A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. DalySpace Environments and Effects Sectioin,

ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands

C. de Matos and F. OngaroEUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris


• SCI– Ulysses– Cluster– SOHO– …

• EO– GMES– Meteosat– Metop– SWARM

• EUI– Telecom– Galileo

• TEC– Space Env and Effects– Radio Propagation

• OPS– Satellite tracking– Drag– Anomaly analysis

• DG-V– Astronomy sc scientific

operations• Other…


Historical Background of ESA involvement

• 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather.• 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe.• 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop.• 1999-2001: ESA feasibility study on a Space Weather Programme.• 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team.• 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management board =>Rejected

(Quantification of value of service for sustainability and need more scientific basis).• 2001: Start preparation of ESA-PP, COST724, and other…• 2003: ESA SW pilot-project formally starts.• 2003: COST 724 starts.• 2005: COST 296 starts (follows from COST 271).


Where we stand in Nov 2005 • Overall European harmonisation/coordination: SWWT• Organisation of the scientific community (through COST Organisation of the scientific community (through COST

296, COST724).296, COST724).• Coordinated service investigation/evaluation in Europe -

SWENET (Starts: April 2003 – ends: Mars 2006).• International relations: ISES, COSPAR PSW & PRBEM,

ILWS, CAWSES, IHY.


Coordinated Service Investigation

• Space Weather European Network (SWENET)Space Weather European Network (SWENET):– Network of 29 service development activities (SDAs): 16

ESA co-funded SDA applications activities began on 1st

April 2003 + 13 independently funded activities.– Common support (portal, service provision, data access), ommon support (portal, service provision, data access),

evaluation method, modelling.evaluation method, modelling.• Independent benefit assessmentIndependent benefit assessment is establishing the economic

and other benefits of the services (Contract with SEA).• Investigation of future sustainable structure for service

provision.


SWENET as a sample for study

• Represents ~5 M€ investment incl. 2 € from ESA GSP.• Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or

developers from 9 member states or from other ESA programme.developers from 9 member states or from other ESA programme.• Questions to address:

– users (and their requirements)?– currently realistic (sustainable) services?– Need for specific space elements?– Value of coordinated approach?– Overall organisation requirements?


Organisation of the Review/Discussion

• Monday:– SWENET infrastructure (P. Beltrami, Eta-max)– Ionospheric effects session (reporter: L. Cander, RAL).– Effects on aircraft and spacecraft (reporter: A. Hilgers, ESA)– Ground effects (reporter: R. Pirjola, FMI & CNS).– Solar monitoring and magnetic indices (reporter: M. Messeroti, TSO).– Cost/benefit analysis study status (T. Woodward, SEA)

• All the week: Scientific sessions and Business meetings (COST, SWWT-TWG)

• Friday: Agency activities – Round table – SWWT meeting.


Users and user domains(in EUROPE)

• Broad community of users (incl. Broad community of users (incl. military).military).

• Can be organised as follows:Can be organised as follows:1.1. Ground geomagnetic effectsGround geomagnetic effects2.2. Ionospheric perturbations of Ionospheric perturbations of

radio signal (comms, nav).radio signal (comms, nav).3.3. Direct space environment Direct space environment

effects on spacecraft.effects on spacecraft.4. SDA’s with general purpose

services with broad class of users (usually solar/indices,…).

• + airline

Industry

National Agencies

Public & Tourism

Scientific Institutes

Military


Sustainability of ServicesPreliminary analysis of SDA business Plan

• Currently real but small Market.– Cost/benefit analysis study status (T. Woodward, SEA)

• Significant growth might be expected in Nav and SC effects domain area (including manned mission).

• Government/Agency funding seems still required.• Research activity is still required:

– fundamental aspect– science of the observation (modelling, data assimilation, monitoring,

prediction,…).


Space Element as required by services (Preliminary).

Measurement Users Hitchhiker Dedicated

Ionosphere Com, Nav

METOP S/C-A LEO const

Rad GEO S/C MTG MTG

Rad GTO S/C X-HH S/C–B GTO

Rad LEO S/C METOP METOP

Rad MEO Nav Galileo x 5 Galileo x 5

Solar Wind All + sci - S/C-C at L1

Solar disk & corona

Sc-op + sci

MTG S/C-D at LEO SS or GEO


Need for coordination (Preliminary)

• Data from multiple sources often required.Data from multiple sources often required.

• Several SDA’s are generic (solar, indices,…).Several SDA’s are generic (solar, indices,…).

• International collaboration might be better performed International collaboration might be better performed through local coordination (ISES, SEC,…).through local coordination (ISES, SEC,…).

• Data access, services provision, some space elements, and Data access, services provision, some space elements, and some R&D (e.g., data assimilation, numerical modelling) some R&D (e.g., data assimilation, numerical modelling) can be mutualised.can be mutualised.


Conclusion • SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry).SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry).• Market small now Market small now in Europe and rely on US or ground based data..• Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space

flight).flight).• Various space elements options are possible with investment commensurate with market

size.• Refinement of market scenarios and cost benefit analysis is in progress (contract with SEA).• Possible undertaking for space elements need to be discussed after ESA council in

December (relevant to next council in 2007-2008).• S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal).S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal).• Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296.Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296.• Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E-STAR (TBC) and Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E-STAR (TBC) and

a possible ERA-Net.a possible ERA-Net.• Maintenance of overall coordinating structures (SWWT & SWENET) is under discussion

(Lefeuvre proposal to ESA).


BACKUP SLIDES


Discussion of space elements options

Option 0: No changeOption 0: No change

• User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case basis and with difficulties).basis and with difficulties).

• Cost: ~1-5 M Cost: ~1-5 M € /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M€ /Y (for non-ESA). /Y (for non-ESA).

• Market and related R&D: non space related market durably Market and related R&D: non space related market durably disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).


Discussion of options

Option 1: Hitchhikers on planned missionsOption 1: Hitchhikers on planned missions

• User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage.User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage.

• Cost: ~10 MCost: ~10 M€ /Y (for ESA) . /Y (for ESA) .

• Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and

Nav. via a programme or an inter-directorate activity; rapid improvement Nav. via a programme or an inter-directorate activity; rapid improvement

expected upstream and downstream.expected upstream and downstream.



Option 2: Hitchhikers + dedicated spacecraftOption 2: Hitchhikers + dedicated spacecraft

• User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and

forecasting capabilities.forecasting capabilities.

• Cost: ~200 MCost: ~200 M€/5 Y (through ESA). (through ESA).

• Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g. Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g.

like Meteosat or GMES).like Meteosat or GMES).



Option 3: Dedicated scientific programmeOption 3: Dedicated scientific programme

• User satisfaction: satisfies a scientific need (e.g. study of solar User satisfaction: satisfies a scientific need (e.g. study of solar

system change at > 10 years time scale).system change at > 10 years time scale).

• Cost: Minimum ~200 MCost: Minimum ~200 M€/5 Y (for space element). (for space element).

• Market and related R&D: N/A.Market and related R&D: N/A.

ESA SW Application – November 2005ESA SW Application – November 2005A possible way forward for spacecraft engineering issues:

Creation of a Network of Centres on Space Environment & Effects

• Networks of Centres are ways in which ESA and the members states’ Agencies coordinate work in a technical area at high level;

• It can potentially support greater coordination of space environment and effects activities in Europe, & lead to execution of an enduring, coordinated programme of– in-orbit technological experiments, – ground facilities, – analysis and modelling infrastructures,

ESA SW Application – November 2005ESA SW Application – November 2005SEENoC• scope of the domain:

– energetic particle radiation and its effects on systems, payloads and humans;– natural and induced plasma environments and their interactions with spacecraft; and resulting

effects on systems and payloads• specific responsibilities and activities:

– define and implement the framework for a reinforced co-ordination of present and future national and ESA resources;

– coordinate:• research and development ;• establishment and operation of facilities for supporting project development and R&D;• preparation and maintenance of engineering standards;

– capture details of activities being performed in Europe and elsewhere, highlight areas of concern, and establish priority requirements for actions taking account of end-user needs;

– establish and maintain a medium and long-term plan including activities related to:• flight opportunities for environments and effects investigations;• environments and effects models and computational tools;• environmental effects (radiation, plasma, etc.) evaluation;

– address budgetary issues in the context of resource optimization;– promote awareness of space environment effects issues;– define and develop the European role vis-à-vis other international entities;– coordinate a European programme of in-orbit technological experiments, ground facilities, and

analysis and modelling infrastructures.– liaise with other technical groups, such as ESCC/CTB/RGW, ECSS, SPINE, SWWT, capturing end

user needs and concerns.• STATUS: UNDER DISCUSSION IN ESA MANAGEMENT• PARTICIPATION IS SELF-FUNDED!

esa sw application – november 2005 esa space weather application initiative a. hilgers, a. glover,...

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