ETHERNET ROADMAP

UPDATE

Scott Kipp

skipp@brocade.com

October 2014

1

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in this presentation are

the views of the presenter and not of the

Ethernet Alliance.

2

Ethernet Roadmap Updates

• Since the August meeting, several standards are being

worked on in IEEE 802.3

• 25GbE Study Group met for the first time

• 25GBASE-T Call for Interest (CFI) was announced

• Next Generation Enterprise Access BASE-T PHY CFI announced

• If these pass, we could have 5 new speeds being

developed simultaneously:

1. 2.5GbE

2. 5GbE

3. 25GbE

4. 50GbE

5. 400GbE 10/10/2014 3

>1B Ports Shipped in 2014!

Ethernet

Switch

Ports1

Router

Ports2

Controllers

and

Adapters3

PoE

Devices4

Access

Ports5

Total

2004 195M 1.2M 110M* 8.9M 62M 377M

2014 452M 1.8M 294M 98M 129M 974M

1. Dell’Oro Ethernet Switch Layer 2+3 Report, July 2014

2. Dell’Oro Routers Report, July 2014

3. Dell’Oro Controller and Adapter Report, January 2012

4. Based on PoE switch ports from Dell’Oro Ethernet Switch Layer 2+3 Report, July 2014

5. Dell’Oro Access Five Year Forecast, July 2014

* 2006 values since 2004 values weren’t available

Probably another 100M ports on widgets, TVs, video games and other equipment in

2014.

With Internet of things and vehicular applications expected to ship 100s of Millions of

ports by the end of the decade, Ethernet will surpass 1.5B Ports/year by 2020.

Over 7 Billion Ethernet ports shipped in last decade!

Ethernet Alliance Roadmap

Find more at:

www.ethernetalliance.org/subcommittees/roadmapping-subcommittee/

Name Speed Date Initial

Standard Ratified

10Mb/s Ethernet 10 Mb/s 1983

100Mb/s Ethernet 100Mb/s 1995

Gigabit Ethernet 1 Gb/s 1998

10 Gigabit Ethernet 10 Gb/s 2002

25 Gigabit Ethernet 25Gb/s 2016 (est)*

40 Gigabit Ethernet 40 Gb/s 2010

100 Gigabit Ethernet 100 Gb/s 2010

400 Gigabit Ethernet 400 Gb/s 2017 (est.)**

*Estimated on a 2-year standardization process that started with the CFI in July 2014

**Estimated on a 4-year standardization process that started with the CFI in March 2013

Ethernet Speeds – Log

1T

100G

10G

1G

100M

1990 2000 2010 2020

Initial Standard Completed

400G

100GbE

40GbE

Sp

ee

d (

b/s)

GbE

10GbE

100 Mb/s

Ethernet

400GbE

40G

25GbE

2.5GbE

5GbE

50GbE

Key:

Ethernet

Speed

Speed in

Development

Why 2.5G to 50G?

• Installed base of CAT5E cabling driving 2.5GBASE-T

• 10GBASE-T doesn’t support 100m of CAT5E

• Installed base, new technology and low cost of SFP+ driving

25GbE

• Serial lanes lower cost than parallel lanes of 40GbE

• 40GBASE-T looks very challenging, but 25GBASE-T looks

easier

• 100GbE still prohibitively expensive for many users

• 1X40GbE SFP+ should deliver good bandwidth/$ compared

with 40GbE QSFP+ (4X10G)

• Can 50GbE SFP+ be deliver better bandwidth/$ too?

Figure from Upcoming 2.5G CFI

10/10/2014 8

Why 25G Now?

• Best cost/Gbps soon

• Technology is ready

• ASICs are port limited, so need more Gb/s/port

64 10GbE port ASIC enables

48 SFP+ and 4 QSFP+

640Gb/s of Throughput

128 25GbE port ASIC enables

32 QSFP+

3.2 Tb/s of Throughput

640Gb/s 64 Ports

of 10G

3.2 Tb/s 128 Ports

of 25G 5X

More

5X The Calories

McDonald’s

Hamburger

-250 calories

Burger King’s

Triple Whopper with

Cheese

-1250 calories

1000X The Storage

10/10/2014 11

2014

512GB!

2003

512MB

How Long are Bits and Frames?

10/10/2014 12

Data Rate Bit time

speed of light

in glass bit length bit length frame length

bits/second picoS/bit m/s m/bit inches/bit m/frame

1GFC 1,062,500,000 941 200,000,000 0.188 7.41 3975.53

2GFC 2,125,000,000 471 200,000,000 0.094 3.71 1987.76

4GFC 4,250,000,000 235 200,000,000 0.047 1.85 993.88

8GFC 8,500,000,000 118 200,000,000 0.024 0.93 496.94

16GFC 14,025,000,000 71 200,000,000 0.014 0.56 248.47

32GFC 28,050,000,000 36 200,000,000 0.007 0.28 124.24

100fs

My Master’s

Thesis at LLNL 0.1 300,000,000 0.000030 0.001181

A 1GFC Frame is about 4km long and a 1GFC bit is 7.41” long

A 32GFC Frame is about 125 m and a 32GFC bit is about ¼” long

25GbE Standards

• Current 25GbE Study Group has following objectives:

• Backplanes like 802.3bj

• 3m of Twinax

• 5m of Twinax

• 100m like 100GBASE-SR4

• 25GBASE-T CFI coming next month

• Don’t know what distance or cabling yet?

• 40GBASE-T defined for 30m over CAT8 – in letter ballot

10/10/2014 13 www.ethernetalliance.org

Electrical Interface Speeds

100G

10G

1G

100M

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

IEEE Standard Completed

Ele

ctr

ica

l La

ne

Sp

ee

d (

b/s)

Gigabit Ethernet (no

electrical standard for

1 Gb/s) in 1998

XFP MSA

standardizes XFI

10Gb/s in 2005

Fast Ethernet

standardizes

100 Mb/s in

1995

10X/3 Years

= 116%/year

10X/7 Years

= 39%/year

2.5X/9 Years

= 11%/year

802.3bj standardizing

CR4 4X25Gb/s in 2014

Key:

Ethernet Speed

Future Speed

8X50G

1X40G

nX100G

When will the next speeds arrive?

100GBASE-CR4 in

2014

11% CAGR is Fairly Slow

100G

50G

40G

25G

10G

2000 2010 2020 2030

Standard Completed

Ele

ctr

ica

l La

ne

Sp

ee

d (

b/s)

XFP MSA

standardizes XFI

10Gb/s in 2005

100G in 2027

8X50G in

2020?

400GbE Task Force

voted to do 8X50G

electrical by 2017

Key:

Ethernet Speed

Future Speed

40G Serial

in 2018?

2.5X/9 Years

= 11%/year

100GBASE-CR4 in

2014

20% CAGR is Great!

100G

50G

40G

25G

10G

2000 2010 2020 2030

Standard Completed

Ele

ctr

ica

l La

ne

Sp

ee

d (

b/s)

SFP+ MSA

standardizes SFI

10Gb/s in 2009

100G in 2020

8X50G in

2017?

Key:

Ethernet Speed

Future Speed

40G Serial

in 2016?

2.5X/5 Years

= 20%/year

PCB 1

How far will 40G Serial go?

• Bandwidth Length Product depends on Media

PHY SFP+

PCB

PHY SFP+

PCB Loss 1 Media Loss PCB Loss 2

Speed Reach with PCB

Loss =10dB

MMF

Reach

(OM3)

BASE-T Cable

Distance

1G 20-36” 550m 100m on CAT5

10G 10-15” 300m 100m on CAT6A

25G 4-6” 100m ??

40G ?? 70m? 30m on CAT8

50G ??? 50m? ??

One example of an Ethernet Link

It’s Only Getting Harder

• Higher speeds equal higher loss and power or shorter distances

CAUI-4 (4X25G) Chip to Module Insertion Loss

10dB @ 25Gb/s

(12.89GHz)

>20dB @ 40Gb/s

(20GHz)

50Gb/s is off the chart

unless advanced

modulation is used

(12.89GHz with PAM-4)

When will we get 100Gb/s

signaling?

Where’s the Debate?

• Should we standardize 40GbE Serial in SFP+?

• Should we standardize 50GbE Serial in SFP+?

• Should we standardize 100GbE Serial in SFP+?

• 4X100GbE QSFP112 should combine to 400GbE

• 400GbE has many options:

• Should 8X50G Electrical Interface be NRZ or PAM-4

• Should optics be 8X50G or 4X100G l and what encoding (NRZ,

PAM-4, DMT, CAP, QAM)?

• Many BASE-T questions to be discussed later…

10G Recap – SFP+ and QSFP+ Win! Before 25GbE and 50GbE Came Along

100M

10M

1M

100K

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

2010 SFP+

Becomes the

Clear Winner

2015 SFP+

surpasses 10M!

2016 40G

QSFP+ >1M

Based on LightCounting Forecasts

XFP and Others

never reach

critical mass

Mo

du

les S

old

/ Y

ea

r

How does 25GbE Affect this?

100M

10M

1M

100K

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

40GbE

QSFP+

Based on LightCounting Forecasts until 2016

Mo

du

les S

old

/ Y

ea

r

10GbE SFP+

New 10GbE and 40GbE

forecasts reduced

because of 25GbE and

100gbE

25GbE

SFP28

100GbE

QSFP28

40G – Will SFP+ win?

100M

10M

1M

100K

2010 2015 2020 2025

Will 40G SFP40

surpasses 1M?

How about

50GbE SFP50?

QSFP+ Up to 2016 Based on LightCounting Forecasts

Mo

du

les S

old

/ Y

ea

r

40GbE

QSFP+

100G – QSFP28 then SFP+?

10M

1M

100K

10K

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mo

du

les S

old

/ Y

ea

r

100G SFP+

Takes off

When?

Based on General Trends

CFP and others

never produce

>1M/year

100G QSFP28

expected to be winner

Scale Shifted

to 10K!

100GbE Challenges

1 2

Challenging the Industry

• The Ethernet Alliance has created two challenges

related to 100GbE:

See Details at:

http://www.ethernetalliance.org/subcommitt

ees/roadmap-subcommittee/

1. The Holy Cup of

100GbE Lambda

2. The Holy Grail of

100GbE SFP+

400G – Still Developing

10M

1M

100K

10K

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Does 3rd Gen

(4X100G) 400GbE

QSFP100 happen

within 10 years?

Based on General Trends

1st Gen (16X25G)

400GbE CDP, CDFP,

embedded optics and

others?

Will 2nd Gen 400GbE

(8X50G) CFP2 become

the Clear Winner?

Scale Shifted

to 10K!

Mo

du

les S

old

/ Y

ea

r

Ethernet Speeds 2010-2025

Key:

Ethernet

Speeds

Ethernet

Electrical

Interfaces

Future

Speeds

Stretched

Symbols =

Time

Tolerance

1T

100G

10G

1G

400G

40G

25G

4x10.3125G

-XLAUI

10X10.3125G

–CAUI-10, CPPI

2010 2015 2020 2025

Technology Availability

100GbE

10X10G

40GbE

4X10G

Sp

ee

d (

b/s)

CDAUI-16

16x25.8G

400GbE

16X25G

CAUI-4

4x25.8G

100GbE

4X25G

40GbE

XLAUI-1

1X40G

100GbE

CAUI-1

nX100G

TbE

10X100G

1.6TbE

16X100G

400GbE

4X100G

CDAUI-8

8X50G

400GbE

8X50G

50GbE

LAUI-1

1X50G

25GbE

XXVAUI

1x25.8G

Where’s the Debate?

• What modulation should be used for 50Gb/s?

• NRZ and PAM-4 both could work, but which will dominate?

• Where should the 50G Electrical be used?

• 2nd Gen 400GbE (8X50G) is a given

• Should we do 3rd Gen 100GbE (2X50G)?

• Should we have 2nd Gen 50GbE (1X50G)?

• 1st Gen 50GbE (2X25GbE) is in 25G Ethernet Consortium

• When will 100G Optics be used?

• 4X100GbE being debated in 400GbE (802.3bs) now

• 100GbE QSFP28 Single Lambda not far away

• 100GbE SFP+ is out a ways

The Rate Debate is Next Week!

• Where: Santa Clara Convention Center

• When: Next Thursday, October 16th

• http://www.ethernetalliance.org/the-rate-debate/

10/10/2014 28

Time

Topic

Speaker(s)

9:10am Ethernet Alliance Roadmap

Intro

Scott Kipp, Ethernet Alliance

President (Brocade)

9:30am Networking Data Rates inside

the Data Centers Alan Weckel, Dell’Oro Group

9:50am Server Diversity: Why One

Speed Is No Longer Enough Dave Chalupsky, Intel

10:10am

Implications of the Next

Signaling Rate on Ethernet

Speeds

Kapil Shrikhande, Dell

10:30am Lane Rates Rob Stone, Broadcom

10:50am Break

11:05am Discussion on Sessions Scott Kipp, Ethernet Alliance

President (Brocade)

11:35am Guest Speaker Gavin Cato, Dell

Morning Agenda

Afternoon Agenda

10/10/2014 30

Time

Topic

Speaker(s)

1:00pm Data Center Fabrics Thomas Scheibe, Cisco

1:25pm Introduction of Session Scott Kipp, Ethernet Alliance

President (Brocade)

1:30pm Faster – 56Gb/s Standardization

Efforts at the OIF

David Stauffer, Kandou Bus

Nathan Tracy, TE Connectivity

1:50pm The Impact of Ethernet Rates on

Optics Mitch Fields, Avago

2:10pm 50Gb/s: The Next Unifying Per

Lane Rate Chris Cole, Finisar

2:30pm Discussion on Session Scott Kipp, Ethernet Alliance

President (Brocade)

2:55pm Break

3:15pm BASE-T Panel: 2.5 to 25G Dave Chalupsky, Intel

4:00pm Flexible Ethernet Rates for Router

to Transport Stephen Trowbridge, Alcatel Lucent

5:00pm Wrap-up John D’Ambrosia, Dell

5:30pm Networking Reception All

THANK YOU

31