Evaluation of R&D at METI

Yoshiaki Tamanoue,1,2 Tetsuo Sugimura, 1 and Shigeki Okamoto1

1Technology Evaluation OfficeMinistry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan.

2AIST.

AEA2012 Minneapolis

Layout

1. Overview

2. Ex ante evaluation

1. Overview

Ministries conducting R&D

METI’s initiatives aimed at creating new industries and

markets

Solution of social issues: innovation in life sciences and renewable energy

Realization of the potential of creative industries

Development of the potential of small and medium–size businesses

Promotion of focused innovation from basic research to application

Integration of public data

Focus of R&D

Energy

CO2 reduction

Materials

Information technology

Medical instruments

Aerospace

R&D evaluation (1)

For improvement of R&D

For accountability to the nation

For better allocation of the budget

For better policy of METI

R&D evaluation (2)

METI commissions the evaluation subcommittee of the industrial structure council to discuss the results of R&D in light of expert opinions. Prof. Kobayashi is a member of this committee.

The evaluation results are publicized to the nation as well as taken into consideration for industrial policy planning and for budget allocation within METI.

R&D evaluation (3)

The evaluation subcommittee of the industrial structure council can publish a statement requiring the division to make improvements pertaining to specific issues.

The division publicizes the method of improvement, making it mandatory to commit itself to the statement.

R&D evaluation (4)

Ex ante evaluation (since FY 2010)

Interim evaluation (since FY 1998)

Ex post evaluation (since FY 1998)

2. Ex ante evaluation

Ex ante evaluation

Prior to the budget allocation request, proposals for new R&D projects under consideration are evaluated, the results of which are submitted to the budget office. Budget office of METI regards ex ante evaluation as indispensable, taking the results into consideration to determine whether or not to allocate the budget.

Preparation for ex ante evaluation

Before ex ante evaluation, the proposed projects are discussed with the division overseeing METI’s R&D, receiving various suggestions for improvements, such as measures for deregulation of laws, expansion of the market, creation of standards, or export of infrastructure.

Flowchart of the budget request process

Ministry of Finance

Budget & Account Division

Evaluation results

R&D Division

Industry Divisions

METI

Budget requests for FY 2013 (1)

Use of medium range thermal energy Wind energy power generationGeothermal energy power generationBiomass energy power generationSolar heat power generationSolid oxide fuel cellUtilization of hydrogenSuperconductive grid cableEnergy efficient processNovel light material (consolidation of 3 projects)Energy-efficient purification of low-grade copperInformation security for industrial machinesEnergy-efficient interactive display

Budget requests for FY 2013 (2)

Novel process for cast ironHigh-resolution nondestructive inspectionTailored drugs (consolidation of 3 projects)Nursing robotsSatellite technologyMiniaturization of high-resolution radarChemicals derived from inedible plantsEcological materialRecovery of rare metalsDevices for smart mobilityHeavy ion radiotherapyPromotion of high-tech startups

Budget requests for FY 2012Decommissioning of nuclear power plants (2 projects)Safety of nuclear power plants (2 projects)Autonomous robots for rescues after disastersApplication of IT to social systemsLow energy consuming electronicsEcological chemical processingEfficient magnetMiniature manufacturing processRecycling of rare metalsGenetic engineering for novel materialsTransfer of military technologyEfficient gas turbineOrganic solar batteryLithium ion batterySolid oxide fuel cellEnhanced oil recovery at maritime wellsPromotion of R&D in rural areasPromotion of R&D for small businesses

Budget requests for FY 2011

Standards for application of iPS cellsDevelopment of medical instrumentsLow energy consuming computer Lithium ion batteryNitric semiconductorFine processing of semiconductorsPhotoelectric hybrid circuitMaterial and process for printing (2 projects)Ecological chemical processMEMS sensorMembranes for separation of CO2

Efficient air conditioningSolar energy for houses

Evaluation of nano-materialsToxicity test of novel chemicalsNovel carbon fibersDatabase for prevention and diagnosis of diseasesProduction of crops in a contained factoryGuidelines for medical instrumentsEmbedded systemsNetwork-linked power controller Prediction of output from solar plantsMaritime power plantBatteries for smart gridProcessing of heavy oil (2 projects)Efficient hydrogen production

Ex ante evaluation indices

1. Necessity of the project (issues to solve)

2. Outcome

3. Strategy to realize the outcome

4. Management

5. Necessity of governmental support

1. Necessity of the project (issues to solve)

Social issues that may arise or deteriorate in the future are described.

The weaknesses of existing technology are stated.

As a means to solve the issue, the necessity of the proposed project is evaluated in comparison with existing or rival technologies.

2. Outcome

Social merit brought about by the realized outcome as well as the expected time of realization is described.

Economic effect of the outcome by solving issues as well as improving competence is described.

Appropriateness of outcome as well as expected time is evaluated.

3. Strategy to realize the outcome

The coordination between R&D and business is required to maximize the outcome.

Cooperation with other ministries is required.

Results of previous projects should be used.

Regarding the consortium, the strategies to improve business, acquire and use IP, and establish international standards and a certification system as well as the expected contributors must be explained.

4. Management

Involvement of an excellent researcher as a project leader as well as users to promote the practical application of the technology is described.

Effective coordination amongst academia, competent companies, and government is required.

Overall management as well as its transparency is evaluated.

5. Necessity of governmental support

There is a requirement to explain why governmental support is necessary, for example, reasons that issues cannot be solved by private businesses alone, necessity of deregulation and support for introduction in the market, support from governments in other countries, benefit to the nation, or contribution to the administrative policy.

Suggestions by the committee

Cooperation with other ministries

Human resource development

Protection of intellectual properties

Matching of businesses from different industries

Creation of a vertically-integrated consortium

Strategic approaches to devising de facto standards

Necessity to target the international market owing to prospects of steep market growth as well as to support exports

Negative comments1. Insufficient analysis of the status quo Lack of analysis of market needs Bleak prospects for R&D: mature technology

2. Optimistic forecast An optimistic forecast of R&D progress, market expansion, and cost reduction. Omission of a feasibility test No logical explanation for a forecast of net increase in employment Premature demonstration test Budget too small, considering the target of the project

3. Other comments Subsidies for R&D of a particular company, not an industry Unclear solution to a problem No clear roadmap

Acknowledgement

Dr. Toyokazu Ishida

R&D division of METICurrent affiliation: AIST

Thank you for your attention