Eve Gruntfest ecg@uccs.eduNorman, OK September 17,2008

Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm -Based Warnings:

A collaboration between stakeholders, the National Weather Service & the

Hazardous Weather TestbedW R A P U P

Motivation Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next generation forecasting tools – better ways to communicate what we know in more sophisticated ways

WAS way – developing with little interaction with folks outside the lab

IS way – bring in forecasters, emergency managers, private sector to assure more socially relevant new tools

Participants

• Forecasters – representing a variety of geographic regions • Emergency managers – local & federal agencies represented• Private sector representatives moving in tandem with government partners• Researchers – geographers, anthropologist with relevant expertise•Many National Weather Center folks – from labs, grad students•Others who want to see how this experiment develops - National Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere), NOAA research folks

Interesting that so many National Weather Center folks found new info learning about, visiting in the Hazardous Weather Testbed

Cross section of users - WAS * ISers & non WAS * ISers

GREAT payoff for small NOAA investment – many participants came on their own funds, and we stretched our small budget creatively W O W -- what a braintrust

YOU are all so busy & worked so hard for 2.5 days Very thoughtful c r I s p y presentations Considerate of the variety of backgrounds

Hazardous Weather Testbed folks were very brave to engage in this experiment

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Getting into each others heads TWO way street (many intersections) When do you begin to warn?

What about impacts incorporated into warnings – life for weeks without power

We agree we need new verification measures – Karen reminds us how culture bound we are by thinking we HAVE to have them

What about probabilistic verification?

What about longer/shorter lead times?

Weather is only one factor people take into account when they make decisions

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Emergency managers clued us in on the many elements of their jobs

Rebecca Jennings at the federal level

Christina Muller at the county level (can’t be tokens – need to be part of all phases of projects)

Imagining the world without the constraints of the term jail of : probability of detection, watches, warning, false alarm?

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Forecasting the weather is a difficult job

Is the challenge of getting effective messages any more/less difficult?

What resources are necessary

What are the first steps?

Not taking advantage of existing research findings

Challenge of everyday weather vs. severe weather

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Workshop objectives1. Introduce new technologies & directions to

a diverse spectrum of potential future collaborators.

2. Define & address the broad spectrum of end-user needs from the super-user to diverse segments of the general public - focus on emergency managers, hospitals & individuals with higher vulnerability as well as private industry

3. Clarify & suggest new ways to communicate uncertainty & storm information - focus on graphic representations of storm timelines & uncertainty and communication through new & emerging technologies

4.Define new measures of success to assess service. Change concepts of storm verification including close calls & false alarms

5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the Experimental Warning Program design for spring experiments with stakeholders goals

6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the culture within all levels of the National Weather Service to facilitate operational implementation

7.Create visibility & consider possible future funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather Testbed activities & stakeholder interactions that help with move The National Weather Service from WAS to IS

Workshop objectives

Ground rules Advanced WAS * IS is not like any other

workshop

We did pretty well on the acronyms

GREAT Meeting & mingling to foster new collaborations & projects

Minimized glazed eyeballs

We heard from almost everyone

Next steps building on our bold experiment

?

Possible next steps --Possibilities for WAS * IS activities

WAS * ISers develop a course to build capacity in social science

Hold the course for social scientists

WAS *IS workshop for TEXAS, Southern region National Weather Service?

Other central regional NOAA activities?

R E S O U R C E S

Why not a Cooperative NOAA Institute on society & weather (Dave Schultz named it Center for Society and Weather C-SAW)?

Or

INSISTING that there are social scientists (plural) working at the existing Cooperative Institutes

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WAS * IS means changing from WAS to IS

WAS physical scientistgoes to WAS * IS workshop

Moving from WAS to IS…is not an instant connection with human behavior modellers or eyeball monitors. BEWARE the simple techno –fix!

Taking the HAZARDOUS Weather TESTBEDBUS on TOUR

Lots of creative

suggestions

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Hazardous Weather Testbed Bus

National Weather ServicePrivate forecasters

Local Communities

The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model - Bring social science into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways

Meteorologists, Hydrologists

Universities

Research Centers

Hazardous Weather Testbed

Broadcast meteorologists

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WAS*ISWAS*ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

Thanks to Kristin Kuhlman and Kelly Lynn for

handling the hundreds of details that let us enjoy a seamless workshop

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@ The NationalWeather Center

SSWIM TeamUniversity of Oklahoma

LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE OPPORTUNITIES TO WORK TOGETHER WITH WAS * ISERS!