evolution and resilience of the nuclear nonproliferation system
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Evolution and Resilience of the Nuclear Nonproliferation System. Arian L. Pregenzer November 3, 2013. The goal of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) is to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. The nuclear nonproliferation system includes a range of multilateral and bilateral measures. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Evolution and Resilience of the Nuclear Nonproliferation System
Arian L. PregenzerNovember 3, 2013
The goal of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) is to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS)
Commit not to assist other states to acquire or develop nuclear weapons
Commit not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons and to implement IAEA safeguards
All agree not to export nuclear equipment or material to NNWS except under safeguards
All agree to facilitate exchange of peaceful nuclear technology
All agree to work towards future nuclear (and total) disarmament
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The nuclear nonproliferation system includes a range of multilateral and bilateral measures
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NPT
Export Control (sensitive nuclear technology)
Detection and interdiction
Capacity buildingTechnical assistance
Material and weapon security
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards
Limitations on highly enriched uranium and plutonium
Border and port security
Diplomacy
Security Alliances
SanctionsArms Control
Nonproliferation system has been largely successful. But what will happen next?
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?1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 20500
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40
60 Nuclear Weapon States
Nuclear Energy States
Enrichment States
?
Thresholds in the nonproliferation system?
5Capability
Dem
and Region to Avoid
1945 2030?
Evolution of Nonproliferation Strategies1945 - 1990
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Unilateral military strikesInternational Export Controls
Security AlliancesNPT / IAEA SafeguardsDiplomacy
Classify information
Hiro
shim
a/N
agas
aki
Sovi
et N
W T
ests
Indi
an N
W T
est
Evolution of Nonproliferation Strategies1991 - 2001
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IAEA Additional ProtocolRegional Security
Cooperative Threat Reduction
Unilateral military strikesInternational Export Controls
Security AlliancesNPT / IAEA SafeguardsDiplomacy
Classify information
Hiro
shim
a/N
agas
aki
Sovi
et N
W T
ests
Indi
an N
W T
est
End
of U
SSR
Innovative Strategies of the 1990sCooperative Threat Reduction
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Warhead Safety and Security
Protection of Nuclear Material and Facilities
Dismantlement of Russian Submarine
Disassembly of Missile Launch Tube
Innovative Strategies of the 1990sThe Cooperative Monitoring Center
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Nuclear Safety Data Exchange (Northeast Asia)
Meteorological Data Gathering and Exchange (Israel/PA)
Cooperative Aerial Monitoring Cooperative Border CrossingsNaval Confidence Building Measures
Cooperative Disease Surveillance(Middle East)
India / Pakistan
Evolution of Nonproliferation StrategiesPost 2001
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Nuclear Reductions
Military StrikesMissile DefenseDetection / Interdiction (PSI)IAEA
Additional Protocol Capacity
BuildingRegional Security
Cooperative Threat Reduction
Unilateral military strikesInternational Export Controls
Security AlliancesNPT / IAEA SafeguardsDiplomacy
Classify information
Hiro
shim
a/N
agas
aki
Sovi
et N
W T
ests
Indi
an N
W T
est
End
of U
SSR
Sept
embe
r 11
Innovative Strategies of the 2000sThe Proliferation Security Initiative:
Goals Stop trafficking WMD-related
materials and technologies Framework
No formal secretariat Coalition of “willing”
Methods Exchange of information and
best practices Exercises
Participation 10 states (2003) > 100 states (2013)
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41-country exercise off Japan in 2007
Can concepts of systems resilience be applied to the nonproliferation system?
Resilience is a measure of a system’s ability to absorb continuous and unpredictable change and maintain its vital functions
Strategies for resilience will emphasize general capabilities to deal with unknown hazards
Resilient systems constantly evolve to maintain function in a changing environment
Resilient systems are functionally diverse
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The Adaptive Cycle and Systems Resilience
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growth
conservation
grow
th release
A resilient system continues to perform its vital functions as it moves through the adaptive cycle over time.
reorganization
reorganization
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Where is the nonproliferation system?
Arms Control
Military StrikesMissile Defense
Capacity BuildingDetection /
Interdiction (PSI)
Cooperative Threat Reduction
???
IAEA Additional protocol
Export ControlsMilitary Strikes
Security AlliancesNPT / IAEA SafeguardsDiplomacyInformation
classification
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What can be done to enhance resilience of the nonproliferation system?
Acknowledge that not all determined states can be prevented from developing nuclear weapons
Fewer intellectual and economic resources to “prevention”
Emphasize general international capabilities that increase overall security and can respond to “point failures” Nuclear emergency / incident response Missile defense Standards for nuclear weapons security
Apply systems thinking more rigorously to nonproliferation Clarify processes Understand feedbacks
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Systems Analysis: Understanding FeedbacksModeling the Nonproliferation System
• Benefits Clarify thinking
about system processes
Account for feedbacks and unintended consequences
• Cautions Unknown
interactions Difficult to
quantify
See “A Systems Approach to Assessing Nonproliferation Strategies,” A. Pregenzer, S. DeLand, R. Glass, W. Beyeler, A. Ames, A. Williams; http://www.sandia.gov/CasosEngineering/docs/Nonproliferation%20Model%20INMM%205-30-11_SAND2011_3768C.pdf
Final Thought: Nonproliferation system interacts with other systems at larger and smaller scales.
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Country Space Globe
Year
T
ime
Cen
tury
Nonproliferation System
Global Order / International Security
State NW Programs