Experimental  Harmful  Algal  Bloom  and  Hypoxia  Forecasts  for  Lake  Erie    

Mark  D.  Rowe1,  E.  J.  Anderson2,  S.  A.  Ruberg2,  S.  Moegling3,  D.  Beletsky1,  H.  Zhang1,T.  H.  Johengen1,  C.  A.  Stow2      1University  of  Michigan,  Coopera6ve  Ins6tute  for  Great  Lakes  Research  2NOAA  Great  Lakes  Environmental  Research  Laboratory  3Cleveland  Division  of  Water  

Photo:  Gus  Chan,  The  Plain  Dealer  

Two  projects  

•  Experimental  Lake  Erie  Harmful  Algal  Bloom  Tracker  (HAB  Tracker)  –  Development  funded  by  the  Great  Lakes  RestoraIon  

IniIaIve  and  NOAA  GLERL  

•  Experimental  Lake  Erie  Hypoxia  Forecast  (LEOFS  Hypoxia)  –  Development  funded  by  NOAA  Coastal  Hypoxia  Research  

Program  

Research  to  OperaIons  at  NOAA  

hOps://hmt.noaa.gov/news/2013/092013.html  

NOAA  research  labs  and  partners  

HAB  BulleIn  transiIoned  to  operaIons  this  year  

hOps://Idesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/lakeerie_bulleIns/bulleIn_current.pdf  

HAB  Tracker  development  Imeline  •  2014  

–  First  version  of  model  on  GLERL  website  

•  2015  –  Model  linked  to  next  generaIon  Great  Lakes  Coastal  ForecasIng  

System  hydrodynamic  model  (FVCOM)  

•  2016  –  Model  updated  to  simulate  verIcal  distribuIon  of  buoyant  Microcys6s  

colonies  –  Model  skill  assessment  conducted                        (Rowe  et  al.  2016.  Journal  of  Geophysical  Research  –  Oceans,  121,  doi:10.1002/2016JC011720.)  

–  User  feedback  solicited  •  2017  

–  Website  presentaIon  updated  according  to  user  feedback  

•  2019:  TransiIon  to  operaIons  at  NOAA  

hOps://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/HABs_and_Hypoxia/habTracker.html  

OperaLonal  Lake  Erie  Hypoxia  ForecasLng    for  Public  Water  Systems  Decision  Support  

 Project  goal  Develop  a  model  that  can  forecast  episodes  of  hypoxia  at  water  intakes  on  Lake  Erie  that  is  suitable  for  transiIon  to  operaIonal  use  at  NOAA    University  of  Michigan  CIGLR  Mark  D.  Rowe,  Dmitry  Beletsky,  Hongyan  Zhang,  Thomas  H.  Johengen      NOAA  GLERL  Craig  A.  Stow,  Eric  J.  Anderson,  Steve  A.  Ruberg,  Doran  M.  Mason      Collaborators  ScoO  Moegling      Cleveland  Division  of  Water  Paris  D.  Collingsworth    Purdue  University  Richard  T.  Kraus      US  Geological  Survey  Ed  M.  Verhamme      LimnoTech    This  research  is  funded  by  the  NaIonal  Oceanic  and  Atmospheric  AdministraIon  NaIonal  Centers  for  Coastal  Ocean  Science  Center  for  Sponsored  Coastal  Ocean  Research  under  award  NA16NOS4780209  to  University  of  Michigan  and  NOAA  GLERL  

Hypoxia  forecast  development  Imeline  •  2017-­‐2020  

–  Development  and  evaluaIon  of  physical  dissolved  oxygen  model  –  Field  data  collecIon  –  User  feedback  and  needs  assessment  –  Development  and  evaluaIon  of  biophysical  dissolved  oxygen  model  –  Evaluate  and  improve  Lake  Erie  hydrodynamic  model  

•  2021  –  TransiIon  to  operaIons  at  NOAA  (if  users  request  it)  

Developing  the  Lake  Erie  Hypoxia  Forecast  Model  We  need  your  input!    

•  What:  A  focus  group  @  your  plant  to  help  develop  a  hypoxia  forecast  model  that  supports  your  plant’s  informaIon  needs  

•  When:    Schedule  your  plant’s  focus  group  between    •  November  –  December,  2017  

How  to  get  involved:    Contact  Mark  Rowe,  or    Devin  Gill.    

Devin  Gill  deving@umich.edu  (734)  741-­‐2283    

Analysis  of  2017  hypoxia  events  

July  4  July  18  July  30  

Processes  that  influence  hypoxia  

•  Thickness  of  the  hypolimnion  (cold  boOom  layer  of  the  lake)  –  A  thin  hypolimnion  is  depleted  of  oxygen  more  quickly  than  a  thick  

one,  assuming  uniform  rates  of  biochemical  oxygen  demand  –  If  the  epilimnion  (surface  layer)  is  in  contact  with  the  boOom,  hypoxia  

will  not  be  present  

•  Hypolimnion  thickness  is  influenced  by  upwelling/downwelling  –  Upwelling/Downwelling  is  driven  by  wind,  and  modified  by  

Earth’s  rotaIon  and  the  shape  of  the  lake  basin  

A  few  conceptual  diagrams  

Influence  of  wind  and  Earth’s  rotaIon  on  upwelling/downwelling  

Surface  currents  are  shiled  to  the  right  of  wind  direcIon  (Ekman  transport)  

hOp://oceanmoIon.org/html/background/upwelling-­‐and-­‐downwelling.htm  

At  the  coast,  Ekman  transport  causes  upwelling/downwelling  

Ocean  CirculaIon.  1989.  Oxford:  Pergamon  Press.  

Circular  wind  moIon  elevates  or  supresses  the  thermocline  

Analysis  of  2017  hypoxia  events  

July  4  July  18  July  30  

Cleveland   Port  Glasgow,  Ontario  

Cleveland   Port  Glasgow,  Ontario  

Morgan  (45176)  

Wind  Farm

 

Dead  Zon

e  bu

oy  

(451

64)  

Environm

ent  

Canada  buo

y  

Forecast  of  July  4-­‐6  upwelling  event  provided  on  June  29  

hOps://www.glerl.noaa.gov//res/HABs_and_Hypoxia/hypoxiaWarningSystem.html  

Analysis  of  2017  hypoxia  events  

July  4  July  18  July  30  

Forecast  of  July  18-­‐19  upwelling  event  provided  on  July  17  

hOps://www.glerl.noaa.gov//res/HABs_and_Hypoxia/hypoxiaWarningSystem.html  

Analysis  of  2017  hypoxia  events  

July  4  July  18  July  30  

Forecast  of  July  30  upwelling  event  provided  on  July  29  

hOps://www.glerl.noaa.gov//res/HABs_and_Hypoxia/hypoxiaWarningSystem.html  

Forecast  of  July  30  upwelling  event  provided  on  July  29  

hOps://www.glerl.noaa.gov//res/HABs_and_Hypoxia/hypoxiaWarningSystem.html  

Summary  •  Physical  dissolved  oxygen  model  is  showing  promise  in  

simulaIng    –  SpaIal  paOerns  of  hypoxia  –  Upwelling  events  

•  PredicIons  at  specific  water  intakes  are  challenging  

•  Further  evaluaIon  and  improvement  of  hydrodynamic  and  hypoxia  models  is  ongoing.  

•  We  propose  to  visit  plants  in  November-­‐December  for  addiIonal  needs  assessment  and  feedback:  Devin  Gill