export value thai export to major destinations asian ...€¦ · 1 75 85 95 105 115 125 jan 2015...

12
1 75 85 95 105 115 125 Jan 2015 Jul Jan 2016 Jul Jan 2017 Jul Jan 2018 Jul Jan 2019 Jul Jan 2020 Thai Export to Major Destinations 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Jan 2015 Jul Jan 2016 Jul Jan 2017 Jul Jan 2018 Jul Jan 2019 Jul Jan 2020 Asian Export Performance Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) EU Japan* China ASEAN5 ME * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods ** ex other manufacturing products US** Feb 2020 = 20.3 Bn USD Ex. gold = 18.8 Bn USD %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data. Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data %YoY Share 2019 2019 P 2019 P 2020 P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Mar (%MoM) Agriculture 6.8 -8.4 -3.6 -13.4 -8.9 -17.8 -10.5 -10.1 -6.4 8.9 Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -12.0 -1.2 -2.9 0.5 -6.7 2.0 -8.3 -3.3 Manufacturing 87.8 -3.9 -3.5 -4.2 -4.9 -3.5 -3.0 -9.2 1.2 3.5 Agro-manufacturing 12.7 -0.0 -2.3 2.2 -0.7 5.2 3.3 3.8 3.4 -1.0 Electronics 14.2 -6.5 -10.4 -2.7 -6.0 0.8 5.3 5.0 11.9 9.5 Electrical Appliances 5.5 1.3 -1.3 4.3 2.8 5.9 5.9 4.2 2.9 -0.9 Automotive 15.1 -3.3 -3.2 -3.3 -0.5 -6.3 -7.2 1.2 -21.2 -14.0 Machinery & Equipment 8.4 -6.3 -4.8 -7.7 -7.2 -8.2 -8.9 -6.3 -15.9 -5.9 Petroleum Related 11.4 -15.0 -10.5 -19.3 -17.9 -20.7 -9.9 -8.8 -13.6 -6.1 Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -3.2 -4.0 -2.5 -0.0 -4.9 1.5 3.6 -2.2 -2.8 Ex. Gold -4.8 -4.9 -4.7 -4.8 -4.7 -3.1 -1.3 -6.5 -2.1 Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related -3.3 -4.1 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 -2.2 -0.3 -5.5 -1.6 Export Value Mar 2020 = 20.9 Bn USD Ex. gold = 19.6 Bn USD 1) ( ) represents export share in 2018 2) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018; Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%) 3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development 4) Data exclude Aircrafts, ships, floating structures, and locomotive sector Export by Firm Size Index sa, 3mma (2015=100) CLMV Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand PH INDO MY TH TW CN SG KR 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Total Large Exporter (52%) Medium Exporter (32%) Small Exporter (16%) Mar 20

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Page 1: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ...€¦ · 1 75 85 95 105 115 125 Jan 2015 JulJan 2016 JulJan 2017 JulJan 2018 JulJan 2019 JulJan 2020 Thai Export to Major Destinations

1

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Thai Export to Major Destinations

60708090

100110120130140150160

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

EUJapan*

China

ASEAN5

ME

* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods** ex other manufacturing products

US**

Feb 2020 = 20.3 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 18.8 Bn USD

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare

20192019P

2019P2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarMar

(%MoM)

Agriculture 6.8 -8.4 -3.6 -13.4 -8.9 -17.8 -10.5 -10.1 -6.4 8.9Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -12.0 -1.2 -2.9 0.5 -6.7 2.0 -8.3 -3.3Manufacturing 87.8 -3.9 -3.5 -4.2 -4.9 -3.5 -3.0 -9.2 1.2 3.5

Agro-manufacturing 12.7 -0.0 -2.3 2.2 -0.7 5.2 3.3 3.8 3.4 -1.0Electronics 14.2 -6.5 -10.4 -2.7 -6.0 0.8 5.3 5.0 11.9 9.5Electrical

Appliances 5.5 1.3 -1.3 4.3 2.8 5.9 5.9 4.2 2.9 -0.9

Automotive 15.1 -3.3 -3.2 -3.3 -0.5 -6.3 -7.2 1.2 -21.2 -14.0Machinery &

Equipment 8.4 -6.3 -4.8 -7.7 -7.2 -8.2 -8.9 -6.3 -15.9 -5.9

Petroleum Related 11.4 -15.0 -10.5 -19.3 -17.9 -20.7 -9.9 -8.8 -13.6 -6.1Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -3.2 -4.0 -2.5 -0.0 -4.9 1.5 3.6 -2.2 -2.8

Ex. Gold -4.8 -4.9 -4.7 -4.8 -4.7 -3.1 -1.3 -6.5 -2.1Ex. Gold &

Petroleum Related -3.3 -4.1 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 -2.2 -0.3 -5.5 -1.6

Export ValueMar 2020 = 20.9 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 19.6 Bn USD

1) ( ) represents export share in 20182) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018;

Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%)3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development4) Data exclude Aircrafts, ships, floating structures, and locomotive sector

Export by Firm SizeIndex sa, 3mma (2015=100)

CLMV

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PHINDOMY

THTW

CN

SGKR

9095

100105110115120125130

Jan-

15

Jun-

15

Nov

-15

Apr-1

6

Sep-

16

Feb-

17

Jul-1

7

Dec-

17

May

-18

Oct

-18

Mar

-19

Aug-

19

Jan-

20

TotalLarge Exporter (52%)Medium Exporter (32%)Small Exporter (16%)

Mar 20

Page 2: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ...€¦ · 1 75 85 95 105 115 125 Jan 2015 JulJan 2016 JulJan 2017 JulJan 2018 JulJan 2019 JulJan 2020 Thai Export to Major Destinations

2

Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Value Quantity Price

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

%YoYShare

20192019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarMar

(%MoM)

Consumer 11.1 2.6 0.9 4.3 8.9 0.1 -1.5 -9.0 -5.9 4.4

Raw material &

Intermediate54.8 -6.8 -3.3 -10.3 -7.0 -13.6 -0.1 -6.8 6.4 13.3

o/w Fuel 14.9 -11.2 -1.2 -20.0 -11.5 -28.2 4.9 -13.4 9.6 34.1

o/w Raw mat &

Interm ex. Fuel 39.9 -5.1 -4.1 -6.1 -5.1 -7.2 -2.1 -4.0 5.0 6.0

Capital 23.5 -2.1 -7.1 3.0 4.1 2.0 -4.1 -12.8 -7.6 31.8

Others 10.7 -5.6 6.5 -15.8 -29.3 3.8 -6.4 36.8 69.1 25.1

Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -5.4 -3.5 -7.2 -6.8 -7.6 -0.9 -7.8 4.4 17.8

Ex. Gold -3.9 -2.4 -5.5 -2.6 -8.3 -1.4 -7.8 1.3 13.8

Ex.

Gold&Fuel-2.3 -2.6 -2.0 -0.5 -3.6 -2.8 -6.5 -0.6 9.8

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. 2/ Import of consumer goods In July includes temporarily imported jewellery for exhibition but is excluded in the total import value in BOP basis due to no changes in ownership.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueFeb 2020 = 14.9 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 14.5 Bn USD

Mar 2020 = 18.6 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 17.6 Bn USD

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3

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Industrial Electricity Consumption*

Quantity of Imported Raw Materials

Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share2016R 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP %MoM

sa

Food & Beverages 19.9 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 1.2 -2.9 -11.0 -7.7 -19.2 -7.0Automotives 13.9 -5.6 2.1 -12.9 -5.6 -20.0 -18.8 -18.6 -24.3 -5.9

- Passenger Cars 4.8 -5.4 3.6 -13.6 -6.8 -20.3 -19.9 -17.3 -22.1 -5.2

- Commercial Vehicles 7.2 -5.6 2.4 -13.4 -4.7 -21.6 -18.8 -20.6 -26.7 -4.6

- Engine 1.3 -7.5 -4.7 -10.2 -5.8 -14.7 -14.4 -12.5 -21.2 -7.4

Petroleum 9.6 -5.7 0.2 -11.4 -7.4 -15.2 -4.3 -0.4 -8.7 -6.6Chemicals 9.2 0.2 -0.6 1.1 1.6 0.6 -0.2 1.7 0.0 3.6Rubbers & Plastics 8.9 -7.2 -5.6 -8.8 -9.7 -7.9 -5.5 -2.6 -7.6 -4.1Cement & Construction 5.5 -1.2 0.2 -2.6 -3.8 -1.4 -0.1 6.1 -5.6 -8.3

IC & Semiconductors 5.5 -5.8 -3.1 -8.4 -12.2 -4.1 1.4 5.4 2.3 -0.9

Electrical Appliances 3.8 5.0 5.0 4.9 1.9 8.0 5.8 7.4 0.7 -3.6Textiles & Apparels 3.5 -7.2 -4.8 -9.5 -8.9 -10.0 -4.6 1.2 -10.1 -9.7Hard Disk Drive 3.4 -5.3 -14.3 3.8 0.5 7.3 6.9 -1.1 10.2 4.7

Others 16.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -6.2 -5.1 -4.5 -2.4 -9.8 -5.5

MPI 100.0 -3.6 -1.8 -5.5 -4.2 -6.8 -6.6 -4.2 -11.2 -4.6

MPI sa ∆% from last

period100.0 - -2.8 -3.0 -1.8 -2.8 -1.2 -0.8 -4.6 -

Capacity Utilization (SA) - 66.0 67.4 64.7 65.7 63.7 63.8 64.6 61.8 -

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

-3.2 %

-6.2 %-5.9 %

%MoM sa

%MoM sa

-6.5 %

20.5 %

-1.1 %

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4

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

707580859095

100105

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Construction Materials Index

Permitted Construction Area (RHS)

Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100) Index sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

% YoY 20192019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -3.9 -1.2 -6.5 -6.2 -6.9 -2.1 -2.2 -1.7 0.9

Construction Materials Index -0.6 1.4 -2.6 -3.4 -1.9 -0.9 3.2 -2.6 -3.8

Real Imports of Capital Goods -1.0 0.1 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -9.2 -15.2 -10.8 0.1

Real Domestic Machinery Sales -5.5 -3.8 -7.2 -5.6 -8.9 0.2 1.5 -1.3 -2.5

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment -3.0 2.4 -8.7 -2.5 -15.4 -11.7 -8.4 -8.0 -2.2

Private Investment Index -2.7 -1.2 -4.1 -2.7 -5.2 -6.6 -6.9 -7.8 -1.0

Private Investment Indicators

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value);

(3) Equity : new issuance at par value

Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht

-150-100-50

050

100150200

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

2017 2018 2019 2020

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5

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

Mar

13.9%

Mar

12.2%

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

0

10

20

30

40

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

Mar

11.1%

Billion baht FY2018 FY2019FY2019 FY2020

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jan Feb Mar

Revenue 2,513 2,538 615 551 777 595 649 537 199 165 173

(%YoY) (6.8) (1.0) (12.8) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.3) (5.5) (-2.5) (-4.0) (-3.2) (0.0)

Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 924 719 654 679 796 758 216 186 356

(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (-2.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (5.4) (-26.4) (-6.9) (58.0)

Budgetary B/L -368 -437 -309 -168 124 -83 -147 -221 -17 -21 -182

Non-Budgetary B/L -28 127 -28 -21 123 53 -126 -15 10 -2 -23

Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -337 -190 247 -30 -273 -236 -8 -23 -205

Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -274 -178 313 -20 -207 -227 -5 -23 -200

Net Financing 506 190 84 99 -38 45 76 111 29 28 54

Treasury B/L 633 513 380 289 497 513 316 872 338 342 191

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6

%YoY 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1P Feb MarP%MoM

sa

Non-durables index 2.3 3.1 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 0.7 -0.6

Semi-durables index 0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -2.7 -1.2 3.3Durables index -2.0 2.7 -6.2 -3.1 -8.8 -12.0 -8.7 -22.0 -12.8

Services index 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.1 3.1 -9.5 -8.2 -21.1 -11.5

(less) Net tourist spending 0.0 -0.3 0.3 3.2 -2.4 -40.6 -48.5 -75.0 -26.7

PCI 2.5 3.4 1.6 1.3 1.9 2.0 5.4 -0.6 -4.8

90100110120130140150160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, sa (RHS)Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Index sa, 3mma

Net tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Bank of Thailand

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Page 7: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ...€¦ · 1 75 85 95 105 115 125 Jan 2015 JulJan 2016 JulJan 2017 JulJan 2018 JulJan 2019 JulJan 2020 Thai Export to Major Destinations

7

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of ThailandSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

30405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total Current

Next 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

-1.7

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan2017

Apr Jul2017

Oct Jan2018

Apr Jul2018

Oct Jan2019

Apr Jul2019

Oct Jan2020

Paddy Rice Sugarcane CassavaRubber Fruit Oil PalmLivestock Shrimp OthersTotal Farm Income

Farm Income

Contribution to Growth: Farm Income%YoY

(%YoY) 20192019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar

Nominal farm

incomeP1.2 1.7 1.0 3.7 -0.4 2.0 3.8 -1.7

Agricultural

productionP-0.7 0.8 -1.8 1.4 -3.8 -6.3 -4.5 -9.6

Agricultural

price1.9 0.9 2.9 2.3 3.5 8.8 8.7 8.7

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: NSO, Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

0

0

0

0

0

0

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Non-Farm Real Total Earning%YoY

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8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

20192019 2020

YTDH1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP

No. of tourists (’000) 39,797 19,769 20,028 9,696 10,332 6,692 2,062 819 6,692

%YoY 4.2 1.8 6.8 7.2 6.4 -38.0 -42.8 -76.4 -38.0

%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - -6.4 -9.4 -39.0 -42.8 -50.7 -

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: ( ) denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2019 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

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9

Labor Market Indicators

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

%YOY2019 2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar

Unemployment rate

(sa)1.0 1.0 1.0

1.0

(1.0)

1.0

(1.0)

1.0

(1.0)

1.1

(1.1)

1.0

(1.0)

Employed persons (%YoY)

(%QoQ, %MoMsa3mma)-0.7 0.3 -1.7

-2.1

(-1.3)

-1.1

(0.7)

-0.7

(0.1)

-0.4

(0.2)

-1.2

(-0.2)

Underemployment rate 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8

EmploymentThousand persons sa, 3mma

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)

Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS)

Not in Labor Force (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Not in Labor Force (sa) (RHS)

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

Thousand persons sa, 3mma

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY

Mar-0.54%

Mar0.54%

( ) Share in Core Inflation

( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

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10

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2019P2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE YTD

Trade Balance 26.6 12.7 13.9 8.0 5.9 8.0 5.4 2.3 8.0

Exports (f.o.b.) 243.0 120.5 122.5 63.3 59.2 60.9 20.3 20.9 60.9

%YoY -3.2 -4.0 -2.5 0.0 -4.9 1.5 3.6 -2.2 1.5

Imports (f.o.b.) 216.4 107.8 108.6 55.3 53.2 52.8 14.9 18.6 52.8

%YoY -5.4 -3.5 -7.2 -6.8 -7.6 -0.9 -7.8 4.4 -0.9

Net Services, Income & Transfers 11.3 5.2 6.1 1.7 4.4 1.5 0.0 -1.6 1.5

Current Account 37.9 17.9 20.0 9.7 10.3 9.5 5.4 0.7 9.5

Capital and Financial Account -12.9 -7.6 -5.3 -1.1 -4.1 -5.3 -4.4 -3.1 -5.3

Overall Balance 13.6 5.6 8.0 6.8 1.3 4.5 -0.6 -0.8 4.5

Page 11: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ...€¦ · 1 75 85 95 105 115 125 Jan 2015 JulJan 2016 JulJan 2017 JulJan 2018 JulJan 2019 JulJan 2020 Thai Export to Major Destinations

11

Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE YTD1. Assets -16,549 -9,348 -7,201 -219 -6,981 -1,966 -1,341 -969 -1,966TDI -14,017 -8,256 -5,761 -3,909 -1,852 -3,495 -473 -1,742 -3,495- Equity -3,627 -3,176 -451 -389 -62 -1,752 -267 -1,141 -1,752- Reinvestment of earnings -971 -752 -219 -207 -12 -375 -125 -125 -375

Thai portfolio investment -7,753 -1,873 -5,880 -2,622 -3,258 -171 -879 1,317 -171- Equity security investment -1,794 -121 -1,673 -788 -885 864 -463 1,895 864 - Debt security investment -5,959 -1,751 -4,207 -1,834 -2,373 -1,034 -415 -578 -1,034

Loans 828 1,237 -409 728 -1,137 -599 -183 323 -599Other investments 4,392 -457 4,849 5,584 -735 2,298 193 -867 2,298 - Trade credits -832 -590 -242 -264 22 531 164 -88 531 - Deposits abroad -435 -3,702 3,267 4,905 -1,637 1,493 196 -881 1,493

2. Liabilities 3,624 1,708 1,916 -923 2,839 -3,350 -3,045 -2,105 -3,350FDI 6,316 2,744 3,571 4,425 -854 3,676 272 2,296 3,676 - Equity 3,163 775 2,388 2,529 -142 1,912 72 1,476 1,912 - Reinvestment of earnings 3,889 2,629 1,260 87 1,173 1,576 525 525 1,576

Foreign portfolio investment -959 1,287 -2,247 -3,685 1,439 -6,229 -883 -5,568 -6,229- Equity security investment 42 840 -798 -1,117 319 -3,651 -652 -2,442 -3,651- Debt security investment -1,002 447 -1,449 -2,568 1,119 -2,578 -231 -3,126 -2,578

Loans 2,688 -1,064 3,752 801 2,952 135 -1,802 1,078 135 Other investments -4,421 -1,260 -3,161 -2,464 -697 -932 -633 89 -932- Trade credits -1,842 -623 -1,219 -1,313 95 -256 -463 33 -256- Deposits abroad 945 838 107 -101 208 664 71 623 664

Total financial flows (1+2) -12,925 -7,640 -5,285 -1,143 -4,142 -5,316 -4,386 -3,074 -5,316

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Page 12: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ...€¦ · 1 75 85 95 105 115 125 Jan 2015 JulJan 2016 JulJan 2017 JulJan 2018 JulJan 2019 JulJan 2020 Thai Export to Major Destinations

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Q12

019

Q22

019

Q32

019

Q42

019

Q12

020

Mar

-20

Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes

Mar 2020E

3.8

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

NEER REER USDTHB

Sources: Bank of Thailand and Reuters

% p.a. Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)

Index (Jan 2014 = 100)

Apr 2020(Average data

until 24 Apr 2020)THB Appreciation

Mar-20109.0

Apr-20118.0

Apr-20100.8

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

-9.6%

-4.6%-4.0% -3.1% -2.5%

-2.0% -1.9%

-0.5% -0.5% -0.3%

0.1%1.4% 2.4%

-3.4%

0.3%

-2.3%

-1.2%-1.7%

-0.3% -0.6%

0.6%

-0.6% -0.8%

0.1%

-1.7%

-0.4%

-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%

IDR GBP INR MYR THB KRW SGD PHP VND CNY TWD EUR JPY

Avg of Mar 20 compared to avg of Feb 20

Avg of Apr 20 compared to avg of Mar 20

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Exchange Rate Movement

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

29-D

ec-1

723

-Jan

-18

13-F

eb-1

87-

Mar

-18

28-M

ar-1

823

-Apr

-18

15-M

ay-1

86-

Jun-

1827

-Jun

-18

18-J

ul-1

810

-Aug

-18

3-Se

p-18

24-S

ep-1

816

-Oct

-18

7-N

ov-1

828

-Nov

-18

21-D

ec-1

815

-Jan

-19

5-Fe

b-19

27-F

eb-1

920

-Mar

-19

11-A

pr-1

98-

May

-19

30-M

ay-1

921

-Jun

-19

12-J

ul-1

95-

Aug-

1927

-Aug

-19

17-S

ep-1

98-

Oct

-19

31-O

ct-1

921

-Nov

-19

16-D

ec-1

98-

Jan-

2029

-Jan

-20

20-F

eb-2

012

-Mar

-20

2-Ap

r-20

24-A

pr-2

0

Latest data 24 Apr 2020