f.12 simulations
TRANSCRIPT
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Drill 1/8/13The MD license plate for a car consists of 3 letters followed by 3 numbers. If you can’t use I, O, or U for letters, how many different possible plates can be created?
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OBJECTIVEPerform probability simulations to model real-world situations involving uncertainty
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PROBABILITY SIMULATIONS
Tool: something you can use to simulate your experimentRule: What outcome is assigned to what
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SOME TOOLS
DiceCoinSpinnerRandom Number Generator (calculator)Others…
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EXAMPLEThere are 6 cars to choose from. What tool would you use to simulate the probability of choosing each car? What rule would you use?
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EXAMPLESuppose you are taking a True False quiz. What tool could be used to simulate the probability of each question? What rule would you use?
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Rules for Tools
It is always safe to use a random number generator.Take the percent you are given and turn it into a fraction.The bottom number tells you how many section to have in your spinner or how many numbers to choose from.The top number tells you how many represent good outcomes.
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DirectionsFor each following scenario design a simulation that can be used to determine the probability of the given outcome. Be sure to select a probability tool, decide on the rule, and describe the length and number of trials to determine the probability.
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Example
At Hershey Park, accountants have found that 60% of the admissions are for children between the ages of 10 and 16. Design a simulation that could be used to determine the probability that 5 guests are between the ages of 10 and 16.
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Example
There is a 50% chance that a baby that is born will be a girl. Design a simulation that could be used to determine the probability that a family with 4 kids has all boys.
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Example
Suppose there is a 35% chance that a student will have a pet cat. Design a simulation that could be used to determine the probability that 3 randomly chosen students will have a pet cat.
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PODMartin is planning a trip to Spain. They say that the rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain. Suppose there is a 70% chance that it will be sunny on any given day in Spain. Design a simulation that could be used to determine the probability that it will be sunny for all 7 days of Martin’s vacation.
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PODMartin is planning a trip to Spain. They say that the rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain. Suppose there is a 70% chance that it will be sunny on any given day in Spain. Design a simulation that could be used to determine the probability that it will be sunny for all 7 days of Martin’s vacation.
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PROBABILITY SIMULATIONS
Tool: ______________ __________________________________________Rule: ________________ _____________________
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SOME TOOLS
DiceCoinSpinnerRandom Number Generator (calculator)Others…
![Page 16: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
EXAMPLEThere are 6 cars to choose from. What tool would you use to simulate the probability of choosing each car? What rule would you use?
![Page 17: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
EXAMPLESuppose you are taking a True False quiz. What tool could be used to simulate the probability of each question? What rule would you use?
![Page 18: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Rules for Tools
It is always safe to use a random number generator.Take the percent you are given and turn it into a fraction.The bottom number tells you how many section to have in your spinner or how many numbers to choose from.The top number tells you how many represent good outcomes.
![Page 19: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Directions
For each following scenario design a simulation that can be used to determine the probability of the given outcome. Be sure to select a probability tool, decide on the rule, and describe the length and number of trials to determine the probability.
![Page 20: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Example
At Hershey Park, accountants have found that 60% of the admissions are for children between the ages of 10 and 16. Design a simulation that could be used to determine the probability that 5 guests are between the ages of 10 and 16.
![Page 21: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Example
There is a 50% chance that a baby that is born will be a girl. Design a simulation that could be used to determine the probability that a family with 4 kids has all boys.
![Page 23: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Example
Suppose there is a 35% chance that a student will have a pet cat. Design a simulation that could be used to determine the probability that 3 randomly chosen students will have a pet cat.
![Page 25: F.12 simulations](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081517/58f147961a28abd16a8b4585/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)