IIASA

Factors responsible for emission changes 1960-2020

Henning Wuester(at IIASA, May to August 2000)

IIASA

Motivation:Understanding changes in emissions

SO2 emissions per capita

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Asia

Europe

USA

IIASA

The environmental Kuznets curve

SO2 emissions P.C. vs. P.C. income in Europe

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0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

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0.09

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

GDP p.c.

SO

2 e

mis

sio

n p

.c.

IIASA

Environmental Effects: acidification

1960

1980

2020

IIASA

Data for 1960-2020

• Use of RAINS database for SO2 and NOx

• Need to work across 2 versions of the RAINS model Use of official emission data to adjust RAINS model data for ammonia

• Extend scenario up to 2020 using results of “shared analysis” and Gothenburg ceilings

IIASA

Differences (> 10%) between RAINS and national estimates

All 36 countires

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2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

SO2 NOx SO2 NOx SO2 NOx SO2 NOx

1980 1985 1990 1995

No

. of

cou

ntr

ies

RAINS is higher RAINS is low er

21 sample countries

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2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

SO2 NOx SO2 NOx SO2 NOx SO2 NOx

1980 1985 1990 1995

RAINS is higher RAINS is low er

IIASA

The scenario up to 2010

The following Signatories to the Gothenburg Protocol and will not automatically meet the Protocol emission ceilings in 2010:

For SO2: Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,

France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Ukraine and United Kingdom.

For NOx: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark,

Germany, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden and United Kingdom.

IIASA

The scenario up to 2020

The following Signatories to the Gothenburg Protocol and will not automatically remain below the Protocol emission ceilings in 2020:

For SO2:. Only Austria and the Netherlands (and only

minor additional abatement effort (of 1-4 kt) required)

For NOx:. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Latvia,

Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia (due to large growth in the transport sector)

IIASA

Decomposition of emission changes -Four main determinants:

1. Control measures: Difference between controlled and (hypothetical) uncontrolled emissions as given by RAINS

2. Energy consumption: increase/decrease in overall energy consumption

3. Structural change: change in the share of different fuels

4. Changes within a sector/fuel category: Technological changes, changes in sulphur content, changes in specific fuel mixes within a category

IIASA

Decomposition of emission changes -The 12 sector/fuel categories:

PP solidPP liquidPP gasIND/CON solidIND/CON liquidIND/CON gasDOM solidDOM liquidDOM gas

Transport, diesel and coal TRANS MD, coalTransport, petrol and gas TRANS LF, gasProcess and others PROC, others

Power plant sector:

Industry and conversion sector

Domestic sector

IIASA

SO2 emissions: European total 1960-2020 (Avoided emissions compared to hypothetical levels due to

energy growth)

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10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SO

2 e

mis

sio

n (

kt p

.a.)

Reductions dueto controlmeasures

Reductions dueto changeswithin sectors

Red. due tochanges inenergystructure

Actual SO2emissions

IIASA

SO2 emissions compared to 1980: European total

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10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SO

2 e

mis

sio

ns (kt p

.a.) Reductions due

to controlmeasures

Reductions dueto changeswithin sectors

Red. due tochanges inenergystructureActual SO2emissions

IIASA

Factors influencing SO2 emission changes 1960-2020

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

SO

2 e

mis

sio

n c

han

ge (

kt

p.a

.)

Growth in TRANS

Growth in DOM

Growth in IND/CON

Growth in PP

Control measures

Change in relative share ofliquids

Technological change

Change in relative share ofsolids

IIASA

SO2 emissions compared to 1960: Netherlands

0

100

200

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400

500

600

700

800

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SO

2 e

mis

sio

n (

kt

p.a

.) Reductions dueto controlmeasures

Reductions dueto changeswithin sectors

Red. due tochanges inenergy structure

Actual SO2emissions

IIASA

SO2 emissions compared to 1960: United Kingdom

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SO

2 E

mis

sio

ns (

kt

p.a

.) Reductions dueto controlmeasures

Reductions dueto changeswithin sectors

Red. due tochanges inenergy structure

Actual SO2emissions

IIASA

SO2 emissions compared to 1960: Poland

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SO

2 e

mis

sio

ns (

kt

p.a

.) Reductions dueto controlmeasures

Reductions dueto changeswithin sectors

Red. due tochanges inenergy structure

Actual SO2emissions

IIASA

SO2 emissions compared to 1980: Former GDR/Germany new Länder

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(k

t p

.a.) Reductions due

to controlmeasures

Reductions dueto changeswithin sectors

Red. due tochanges inenergy structure

Actual SO2emissions

IIASA

NOx emissions compared to 1960: European total

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NO

x em

issio

ns

(kt

p.a

.)

Reduction dueto controlmeasures

Red. due tochanges inenergy structure

Reduction dueto changeswithin sectors

Actual NOxemissions

IIASA

NOx emissions: European total 1990-2020 (Avoided emissions compared to hypothetical levels due

to energy growth)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NO

x e

mis

sio

ns (

kt

p.a

.)

Total actual NOx emissions Red. due to changes in energy consumption

Reduction due to technological changes Reduction due to control measures

IIASA

Factors influencing NOx emission changes 1960-2020

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-2000

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2000

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10000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

NO

x e

mis

sio

n c

han

ge (

kt

p.a

.)

Energy growth in TRANS

Change in share of trans.petrol

Change in share of trans.diesel

Others

Change in share of gas

Change in share ofliquids

Change in share of solids

Technological change

Control measures

IIASA

Some general conclusions

• Structural change has contributed significantly to emission reductions of SO2 and much less so for NOx.

• Changes in the energy structure increased NOx emissions in the 1990s.

• Abatement measures become increasingly important at the European level on a whole.

• Differences between countries are large, but they are expected to decrease as countries move towards reaching the Gothenburg Protocol ceilings: also those that relied on changing energy structures or energy savings will have to take targeted abatement measures.

IIASA

Further work

• Explaining country differences - importance of the transboundary factor?

• Revisiting the ‘environmental Kuznets curve’ based on the different factors responsible for emission changes

• Improve graphic visualisation of the factors when they overlap