F a s t F o rw a r d 1 0 Ye a r s : F a c t , F i c t i o n & F a i l u r e

I N T R O D U C T I O N

Global Cyber Security Strategist for SolarWinds

DEF CON SOC Goon

Cyber Security writer for Huffington Post & others

Lead Architect for Cyber Centurion (UK) and Cyber Titian (Canada)

IAN TRUMP@phat_hobbit <- Please Follow Me!

Ian trump@solarwinds com

2 0 1 7 – B o t n e t Wa r s a n d t h e E vo l u t i o n o f R a n s o m w a r e

Botnet and Ransomware

Evolution

• Cybersecurity Market Reaches $75 Billion In 2015, expected to reach $170 Billion By 2020 (Forbes)

• Cyber Crime Costs Projected To Reach $2 Trillion by 2019 (Forbes)

• Internet value chain is expected to grow at 11 per cent per annum over the next five years, which will lead the total value of the internet value chain to grow from $3.5 trillion in 2015 to $5.8 trillion by 2020 (GMSA/AT Kearney)

• ‘Anna-senpai’ leaked the source code for Mirai (Sep 2016)

• Dyn DNS DDOS (Oct 2016)

• Deutsche Telekom – 900K Device DOS (Nov 2016)

• 'Methbot' – $5M per day (Dec 2016)

• ‘Brickerbot’ – Device Destruction (Apr 2017)

2 0 1 8 – M a s s C a s u a l t y I n c i d e n t

M a s s c a s u a l t y i n c i d e n t , s ys t e m f a i l u r e s a u t o n o m o u s

t r a n s p o r t a t i o n & c r i t i c a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e

K a s p e r s k y I n d u s t r i a l C o n t r o l S y s t e m s V u l n e r a b i l i t i e s S t a t i s t i c s 2 0 1 5

M a s s c a s u a l t y i n c i d e n t , s ys t e m f a i l u r e s a u t o n o m o u s

t r a n s p o r t a t i o n & c r i t i c a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e

M a s s c a s u a l t y i n c i d e n t , s ys t e m f a i l u r e s a u t o n o m o u s

t r a n s p o r t a t i o n & c r i t i c a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e

K a s p e r s k y I n d u s t r i a l C o n t r o l S y s t e m s V u l n e r a b i l i t i e s S t a t i s t i c s 2 0 1 5

2 0 1 9 – F i r s t C yb e r w a r

Simultaneous cyber-attacks

in the Balkans, indo-

china and middle-east,

f irst mass causality incident

attributed to crit ical

infrastructure attacks.

• Pipeline Explosions (BTC pipeline explosion 2008?)

• Shamoon & Shamoon2 (Saudi Amoco 2012 & 2016)

• Haifa, Israel Tunnel Lights (2013)

• Maroochy Shire Council, Queensland, Australia (2001)

• TriCk, TeaMpOisoN, Cyber-Caliphate, DDoS (distributed denial of services attacks), malware, ransomware attacks.

• Hollywood Presbyterian Medical Center At Scale?

2 0 2 0 – F i r s t C yb e r We a p o n s Tr e a t y i s S i g n e d b y N e a r l y a l l U N

C o u n t r i e s – S o m e A b s t a i n

Cyberwarfare Treaty

• Snowden – NSA & 5 Eyes Surveillance & Offensive Cyber

• Shadow Brokers – NSA Offensive Cyber

• WikiLeaks – CIA Offensive Cyber

• Civilian Organization Vulnerability Disclosure Policy

• Military/Government Vulnerability Disclosure Policy

• General Data Protection Regulation V2?

• World CERT ?

2 0 2 1 – S e c o n d C yb e r Wa r

AI is Blamed for Launching Global Attacks

• From Hive, 2017

• Demi Hassabis, a leading creator of advanced artificial intelligence.

• Elon Musk, latest rush to embrace artificial intelligence scares him. And he thinks you should be frightened too.

• Shane Legg, stated flatly, “I think human extinction will probably occur, and technology will likely play a part in this.”

R o b o t E s c a p e s , t o d o W h a t , E x a c t l y?

2 0 2 2 – S o c i a l H a c k t a v i s m

S o c i a l H a c k t i v i s m r i s e s a s a r e s u l t o f g l o b a l f o o d s h o r t a g e s , c l i m a t e c r i s i s a n d g l o b a l w e a l t h d i s p a r i t y – C yb e r I n s u r g e n c y b e g i n s

General Motors Co. has connected about a quarter of

its 30,000 factory robots to the internet, and the largest

U.S. automaker already is reaping the benefits of less

down time.

In the last two years, GM has avoided 100 potential

failures of vehicle- assembling robots by analyzing

data they sent to external servers in the cloud, Mark

Franks, director of global automation, said at a

conference in Chicago on Monday.

Connectivity is preventing assembly line interruptions

and robot replacements that can take as long as eight

hours.

“If we can avoid a disruption in our manufacturing, we

can save ourselves a significant amount of money,”

Franks said at an International Federation of Robotics

roundtable.

Bloomberg, April 4, 2017

Global Warming

Data 2007 to 2015 – Trend analysis

• Large impact of one additional industrial robot

• One robot reduces employment by 7 jobs

• One robot per thousand workers reduces wages by

1.6%

• Industrial robots expected to increase to 4.5-6

million by 2025.

Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo, "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets"

G l o b a l Wa r m i n g + U n e m p l o ym e n t + R o b o t s = G e o p o l i t i c a l

S t r e s s / S o c i e t a l F r a c t u r e

• The number of workers in vulnerable employment is projected to grow by 11 million per

year, with Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa being the most affected.

• The number of unemployed persons globally in 2017 is forecast to stand at just over 201

million – with an additional rise of 2.7 million expected in 2018 – as the pace of labor force

growth outstrips job creation.

-IPS April, 2017

2 0 2 3 – I n t e r n e t i s P a r t i t i o n e d i n t o Tr u s t e d & U n t r u s t e d

The Identity Problem?

Solved.

Connect the Human

Brain.

• Elon Musk wants to connect brains to computers

• “neural lace” technology – the implanting of tiny electrodes into the brain that could be used to give direct computing capabilities.

• He said a “merger of biological intelligence and machine intelligence” would be necessary for humans to stay economically valuable.

Guardian, March, 2017

• Dharmendra Modha head of the SyNAPSE project -The brain has 38 petaflops of processing power & 3,584 terabytes of memory.

Scientific America , 2009

• Markus Diesmann and Abigail Morrison succeeded in creating an artificial neural network of 1.73 billion nerve cells connected by 10.4 trillion synapses.

• 40 minutes with the combined muscle of 82,944 processors in [a] K [super] computer to get just 1 second of biological brain processing time.

• While running, the simulation ate up about 1PB of system memory as each synapse was modeled individually.

Extream Tech, 2013

Build a New

Internet on the Rubble of the Old.

• 2011 Keith Alexander, also have floated the concept of a ".secure" network for critical services such as banking that would be walled off from the public Web.

• RSA infosec conference in San Francisco, Olaf Kolkman, the Internet Society’s chief internet technology officer, and Bruce Schneier, IBM Resilient’s CTO found themselves in an unlikely alliance on the matter of IoT security.

• Essentially, Kolkman has called for strict industry requirements to bring IoT defenses up to scratch. Schneier, an anti-regulation libertarian, agrees, yes, it's time to draw up rules for internet-connected gadgets.

RSA Conference, 2017

2 0 2 4 – S e c o n d C yb e r Wa r e n d s

2 0 2 5 – T h e Tr u s t e d N e tw o r k B r i n g s n e w F o u n d P r o s p e r i t y f o r

B u s i n e s s

• Economic models go down in flames, replaced by new models

• Access to the “trusted” network will require a direct human brain network connection to communicate.

• May even use IPV6, #LOL

• AI Wrangler (Manage and Organize AI Avatars)

• Cyber BladeRunner (Hunt Rogue AI)

• Neural Interface Security Analyst (Cra CraDebugger)

• PAN (Planetary Area Network) Architect

• “We need to achieve the right balance between maintaining an open and accessible Internet and having the right security mechanisms in place that enables a secure online environment.”

Mark Buell, Regional Director North America, Internet Society, 2016

You are Your

Identity.

2 0 2 6 – M a r s a n d M o o n C o l o n i e s a r e C o n n e c t e d t o t h e “ Tr u s t e d ”

N e tw o r k O n l y.

UN mandates “trusted”

network access

point of presence in

all countries.

• Hard to argue against the need for a layer 2+ solution for security - eDemocracy, online financial transactions, medical information, etc.

• Hard to argue that identity is necessary or even required for all Internet activity - whistle blowing, law enforcement investigations, etc.

• The European parliament has urged the drafting of a set of regulations to govern the use and creation of robots and artificial intelligence, including a form of “electronic personhood” to ensure rights and responsibilities for the most capable AI.

• The proposed legal status for robots would be analogous to corporate personhood, which allows firms to take part in legal cases both as the plaintiff and respondent.

Guardian, 2017

2 0 2 7 – 2 n dC yb e r We a p o n s Tr e a t y i s A d o p t e d a n d S i g n e d

The untrusted

network is a wasteland where only the Yahoo

search engine can be found….

But, maybe it wont matter, maybe we will have to rebuild anyway

• 1859 the Carrington event

• In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the U.S. alone at $0.6–2.6 trillion.

• Just two years ago, on July 23, 2012, we had a near miss from two giant clouds of charged particles that the sun had belched out in our direction.

• Pete Riley, a senior heliophysics scientist at NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, names a sobering figure: there is at 12 per cent chance it will happen within the next decade.

Geekquinox , 2014

Q & A