fgs 2012 - it's the end of the world as we know it (and i feel fine)
DESCRIPTION
Ben Garney discusses the future of Flash and what Flash developers can do to survive it - and why he's feeling strangely calm about all of it.TRANSCRIPT
It’s The End Of The WorldAs We Know It, And I Feel Fine.By Ben Garney
For latest slides & more info, visit http://bengarney.com/
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Introduction
• Who am I?
• What’s going on?
• Where are we going?
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Hill Valley, 1955
Saturday, March 3, 2012
GarageGames, 2006
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Saturday, March 3, 2012
Recent Events
• Adobe drops Flash in mobile browsers.
• Financial analyst call in January.
• Open sourcing Flex.
• Flash Player Roadmap last month.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Flash in the Market
• Flash has a great position.
• But right behind it...
• Corona, Moai, Unity
• Scaleform, Iggy, In-house tech.
• HTML5, Emscripten, Swiffy, Gordon
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Erosion
Saturday, March 3, 2012
The Flash Tripod
• Tools - Flash Builder, Flash Pro
• Runtime - Player, AIR
• Platform - SWF, AVM+, APIs
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Declining Assets
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“Declining” Outcomes
• Led to GG sale to IAC for ~$50M...
• Left and started PushButton Labs...
• Torque survived shutdown, still selling!
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“Declining Asset”is a label to help make decisions.
Not business reality.
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Back to Adobe...
• Writing on the wall.
• Long term winner: HTML5
• But Flash still lives....
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CommunitySaturday, March 3, 2012
Tech Communities
• Look out for the vocal minority.
• The people you hear from are emotionally invested.
• Users have a limited perspective.
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Reaction
• End of the world!
• Flash is dead!
• Wait, are we talking about our ex-girlfriend, or software?
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Reports Of My Death...
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Adobe’s Outs
• Replace Player with HTML5.
• Leverage tools to target JS.
• And the subtle play...
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Adobe’s Outs
• HTML5 is the future.
• Open standard.
• Public opinion supports it!
• Wide deployment.
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Adobe’s Outs
• HTML5 is the future?
• Vendor friction.
• Mixed priorities.
• JS is not great for large apps.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Adobe’s Outs
• Take advantage of HTML5 boom.
• Take Flash off the agenda...
• And let it fly under the radar.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Flash Outcomes
• Could die quietly...
• Could maximize revenue in mid-term...
• Could allow a renaissance.
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Future Proofing
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Build it,and they will come.
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Diversify.
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Platforms Die.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
(And I Feel Fine.)
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Conclusion
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Conclusion
• Flash is a “declining asset”...
• (Whatever that means.)
• Leverage Flash as long as you can!
• Your skillsets are not...
• Future proof yourself.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Conclusion
• Thanks for coming!
• http://bengarney.com
• @bengarney
• Questions?
Saturday, March 3, 2012