The future of Communication Technology. What will Communication Technology look like in 2022?

By Brian Lewis

http://www.slideshare.net/bklewis55/final-project-by-brian-lewis-for-comm-tech

Computers (Electric) have come a long way since their invention. During the 1980’s, computers went from Terminal access to a Mainframe, to Personal Computer (PC’s). Since then, computers have continued to advance at a rapid rate. In the future, more people will be able to access their personal information in the “Cloud”. With Apple I Cloud, you can access all of your personal information from any apple device such as the new Apple Mac Pro Air or your Apple I Phone. All of your information will be stored on servers. You will no longer have to worry about backing up all of your information, all the time. How many times in the past has someone lost all the files because of a Personal Computers Crashing?

Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory

The Social Learning Theory is defined as how people learn from the behaviors of others. TV and the internet are power tools for learning by observation. For example, if a home owner has a slow leak in the bathroom sink, he can call a plumber or fix the faucet himself by watching a plumber on YouTube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YneOjcOnrw4

Gratification Theory and TV's of the Future

The Gratification Theory was developed by Katz in the 1970’s. This theory is defined by people who want and need Communication Technology to fulfill their personal need for pleasure. This is important information for companies that build TV’s such as Sony, Samsung and LG. A more specific example of this would be customers who purchase a TV with a 42 inch or larger screen. Clearly a family TV that is 60 inches wide is used for family pleasure and gratification. In the future TV’s will have everything you need for entertainment. TV’s of the future will become Smart TV’s. Smart TV’s will be used for watching movies (in 3-D), news, Video Phone, Video Arcade, and as computer. By the year 2022 more than likely the majority of America will own a Smart TV.

Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation Theory was developed in the 1960’s by Everett Rogers.There are five steps to this model, this is an example of how it works.

1. Knowledge- You just found out that Apple released the new IOS7 phone.2. Persuasion- How do you feel about this new product? Good or Bad.3. Accept or Reject the innovation. Will you go buy it? Are you motivated enough to buy?4. Implementation – You go and buy the Apple IOS7 Cell Phone. 5. Confirmation- The IOS7 is met or exceed you expectations.

In this example, if Apple had met the customer’s expectations than the they are more likely to have a loyal customer for years to come. The balancing act for corporations is sell a new product, without over selling it. If product was hyped up but did not exceed your expectations than they lost a loyal customer.

Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations

Apple new iOS 7 Google Nexus 4

Communication Technology Companies such as Apple and Google will compete against each other to create the most innovative communication technology ever. More than likely only a small segment of the over all population will rush to buy the newest phones from Apple and Google. The few that do will help to move the technology forward, so that majority will use this technology. This is an example of Critical Mass Theory. This communication technology will continue to improve well beyond 2022.

1980’s Cell Phones

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate

Early Adopters Innovators

1st Group of people to buy new product

Early Majority2nd Group of people to buy new product

Late Majority3rd Group of people to buy new product

LaggardsFinal Group of people to buy

new product

When the PC came out in the early 1980’s Moore Innovation model was used. Very few people actually bought a new PC computer. It is important to note that without the Early

Adopters Innovators and Early Majority companies such as IBM would not have made enough money to cover their operating expense and would have sell new products at a

loss. The new 3-D TV currently being sold now follows the Moore’s Innovation Rate Theory. 3-D TV’s would fall into the Early Majority . 3-D TV are new but are not the

majority in Sales. In 2022, 3-D TV will be standard on every TV.

Media System Dependency Theory

Is the relationship between the user and the Media that they are using. For example the “Cable Company”. Most of us use Cable TV but our needs or priorities, are different from the cable company. Six dimensions make up Media Systems Dependency Theory.

1. Social understanding, (learning about your environment)2. Self Understanding, (know yourself)3. Action Orientation, (understanding specific behaviors)4. Interaction Orientation, (understanding behaviors of others)5. Solitary Play, (providing entertainment to yourself) 6. Social Play (Media use for social interaction, like Facebook)

The Theory of the Long TailPo

pula

rity

HEAD

Long Tail

Products

The Long Tail Theory explains why rating of popular TV shows and movies would be considered a failure in years past. This is because people had less choices of media in years past. Today, with cable TV and the internet, people have a variety of programs which limits the amount of viewers because of the variety of Media. This also applies to traditional TV news networks such as ABC, CBS and NBC. Twenty years ago they were dominating the news. However today they still dominate the overall rating, but they are much lower due to CNN and Foxnews.

Education in the Future will help drive Communication Technology

“As more and more of the work in a society occurs online, it becomes possible to engage more and more learners in "teleapprenticeships." These are formal educational frameworks that engage people in learning through their remote participation in ongoing work settings.” (James Levin University of Illinois 2002).

The Umbrella PerspectiveThe Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology stems from Everett M Rogers and Sandra J Ball Rokeach, writings on communication technology. Rogers defined communication technology as “The hardware equipment, organizational structures and social values by which individuals collect, process and exchange information with other individuals(Grant and Meadows 2008).” Ball Rokeach, suggests that “communication media can be understood by analyzing dependency relations within and across levels of analysis, including the individual, organizational and system levels.” She also identifies “three systems for analysis: the media system, the political system and the economic system (Grant and Meadows 2008).” The hardware is the physical equipment related to the use of the technology. Software is defined as the information manipulated by the computer as well as the instructions used by the computer to manipulate the data (Grant and Meadows 2008).

Sources

http://www.google.com/search?q=technology+of+the+future&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=EpD6UaCaFLGq4AOk4YHoCg&sqi=2&ved=0CE4QsAQ&biw=1366&bih=639

http://www.google.com/nexus/

http://www.google.com/search?q=future+tv+2020+pictures&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=5xz8UfHFGtGt4AP2wIG4BA&ved=0CCoQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=639http://www.google.com/search?output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=picture+of+family+watching+tv&oq=picture+of+family+watching+tv&gs_l=hp.3..0j0i22i30l4.2039.17440.1.17928.44.35.2.0.0.3.2197.17466.6-1j7j1j3.12.0....0...1c.1.23.hp..33.11.11345.GKYNdfA-

http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy-ab&q=Personal+computer+in+the+1980&oq=Personal+computer+in+the+1980&gs_l=hp.3..0j0i22i30l3.791.7552.1.8020.16.12.0.0.0.3.1923.11392.6-1j3j4.8.0....0...1c.1.23.psy-

http://techland.time.com/2012/08/13/the-future-of-personal-computing-cloud-connected-screens-everywhere/http://www.apple.com/icloud/ www.apple.com

http://www.apple.com/macbook-air/

http://www.google.com/#output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=Picture+of+IBM+Mainframe+from+1980%27s&oq=Picture+of+IBM+Mainframe+from+1980%27s&gs_l=hp.3...1008.11937.1.12715.36.31.0.0.0.3.1875.24347.6-

http://www.houzz.com/ideabooks/2242148/list/How-Smart-TV-Will-Change-Your-Living-Room

http://wikicommedia.wikispaces.com/Umbrella+Perspective

http://faculty.education.illinois.edu/j-levin/2020-vision.html

http://www.google.com/search?biw=1518&bih=714&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=pictures+of+long+tailed+tiger&btnG=#biw=1518&bih=714&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=pictures+of+tiger&oq=pictures+of+tiger&gs