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Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,

Finnish Sawmills Owners Association

Global Megatrends in Container shipping

Rauma, 19 Sep 2017Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,

A proud heritage

2

Established in 1871 by a consortium of eleven Hamburg merchants, we have developed

from a conventional shipping company into an internationally operating transport and

logistics organization.

Today, the Hamburg Süd Group ranks among the 10 major providers of worldwide ocean

transport and is well-known for individual logistics solutions from a single source and

tailored to customers’ needs.

Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe, 3

Agenda

Market Environment & Fundamentals

Carriers, Trends & Development

Finnish Market Overview

Summary & Conclusions


Development of GDP Growth Projections2015 – 2018F (IMF)

4

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook October 2017


Growth in Container Transport / World Economic Growth2012-2018F (in %)

5

Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor December 2017; Int. Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook December 2017

2,5

5,1

3,7

4,75,0

6,5

3,23,4

3,63,53,5 3,73,6

3,2

2018F2017F20162015

1,4

201420132012

World Economic Growth

Container Transport Growth


Cellular Fleet Growth vs. Global Throughput2000-2018F (in %)

6

Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor February 2018

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

10

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

8

6

4

2

02011

15,4

2010

14,3

2009

13,1

2008

12,411,0

2006

9,6

2005

20,0

8,3

2004

7,3

2003

6,7

2002

6,2

2001

5,6

2000

5,0

23,0

in %in m TEU

22,3

2017F

21,1

2016

20,3

201520142007

18,4

2013

17,3

2012

16,3

2019F2018F

% Global Throughput GrowthFleet Capacity% Annual Cellular Capacity Growth


Global Container Throughput vs. GDP Growth (TEU-to-GDP Multiplier)

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-10%

5%

-5%

0%

10%

20%

15%

2020F

2019F

2018F

2017F

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

GDP multiplier

Global GDP growth %

Container throughput growth %

1990-1999 Avg. Multiplier: 3.4 2000-2008 Avg. Multiplier: 2.6 2010-2016

Avg. Multiplier: 1.4 2017F: 1.7

Source: Alphaliner Newsletter No. 42 – 2017


Dynamar Trade Growth FY 2017 vs. 2016 (in %)

8

1,9%

7,1%

4,7%

North

America

Europe

4,6%

Intra-

Regional

4,7% Ø 5,1%

Australasia

7,7%

5,5%

4,1%

Far East

0,4%

4,4%

5,9%

7,2%

Latin

America

3,8%

Middle

East/ISC

Africa, Sub

Sahara

8,6%

11,0%

5,2%

Import Growth FY ’17 vs. ‘16

Export Growth FY ’17 vs. ‘16

Source: Dynaliner Weekly 06 2018

Average

Growth


Development of SCFI (ex Shanghai)last 52 weeks

9

Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, week 09

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2017

USD / TEU

SCFI

Europe

South America EC

US West Coast

Australia / New Zealand

South Africa


Development of SCFI (ex Shanghai)last 52 weeks

10

Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, week 09

827

2309

626

772

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2017

USD/TEU

Europe South America EC US West Coast SCFI


Bunker Price Development vs. SCFI since 01/2016 (indexed)IFO 380 Rotterdam, MGO Rotterdam

11

Source: Platts Oilgram Bunkerwire, Shanghai Shipping Exchange

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18

IFO Rotterdam

MGO Rotterdam

SCFI


Bunker Price Development since 01/2016IFO 380 Rotterdam, MGO Rotterdam

12

Source: Platts Oilgram Bunkerwire

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18

US

D / t

IFO Rotterdam

MGO Rotterdam

07 March 2018MGO 578 USD/t

07 March 2018IFO 366 USD/t


Evolution of Idle Containership Fleet2008-2018

13

Source: AXS-Alphaliner Newsletter No. 7, 2018

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

Jan.

2010

Jan.

2011

Jan.

2012

Jan.

2017

Jan.

2016

Jan.

2015

Jan.

2014

Jan.

2018

Jan.

2009

Jul.

2008

Jan.

2013

0,9%65 vessels

m T

EU

NOO

Liner

11,7%572 vessels

NOO

Liner


Agenda



Finish Market Overview



Development of Newbuilding Orders and Deliveries*2009-2019F

15

Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor February 2018

NOO

Liner

*Forecast Figures are based on the current orderbook.

0,0

0,7

1,7

0,3

1,9

1,1

2,3

0,3

0,7

0,3

1,1

1,4

1,2 1,31,4

1,5

1,7

0,9

1,2

1,5

0,9

-

1

1

2

2

3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Orders (in m TEU)

Deliveries (in m TEU)


Carrier Consolidation – Outlook 2018*

Source: Alphaliner Top 100, 6th March 2018

4,5

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

Capacity in m

TE

U

COSCO

/ OOCL

SITCKMTCQASCX-Press

Feeders

Wan

Hai

HMMZIMPILYang

Ming

Ever-

green

Ocean

Network

Express

(3J)

Hapag-

Lloyd /

UASC

CMA

CGM

MSCMaersk

/ HSDG

Existing Fleet

Orderbook

16

*The proposed transactions are subject to regulatory approvals


Average operating margin Container Carrier* 2011-2017

5

3

-1-1

-8

-9

-6-6

-2

2

5

1

3

0

-2

-4

1

-1

-3

-1

5

1

-12

-11

-7

-6

0

Q3Q2Q1 Q3Q1 Q4Q2Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4 Q2Q2Q1Q4Q3 Q3Q1 Q3Q1Q4Q2

20162014201320122011 ‘17

*Average of: CMA CGM (incl. APL to 2Q 2016), CSCL (until 1Q 2016), EMC, Hanjin (until Q2 2016), Hapag-Lloyd

(incl. CSAV until 2014), HMM, KL, Maersk, MOL, NYK, WHL, YML, ZIM Source: AXS Alphaliner Newsletter No 48, 2017; Annual Reports

17

2015


Global schedule reliability Top 20 (+/- one day)

18

Source: SeaIntel

80%

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%

Wan Hai

Hamburg Sud

Evergreen

HMM

COSCO

OOCL

CMA CGM

MSC

Maersk Line

APL

ZIM

Hapag Lloyd

UASC

NYK

K Line

PIL

MOL

Yang Ming

Global Top 20 ranking 2017 (Jan-Dec)


Agenda






Finnish Market Overview (Seabury) – Focus on East Med &

Far East

20


Agenda






Summary & conclusions

22

◼ Long poor economical development has created a waive of mergers within the industry

◼ We will see fewer and stronger players within global containers markets

◼ More healthy results will enable carriers to focus the future investments more to

desperately needed digitalization and stabilize the balance sheet. Block Chain

◼ Geopolitical aspect. National carriers

◼ Ship size increasing both deep-sea and short sea (Feeder)

◼ Decreasing number of ports

◼ Keep Finland interesting market for the carriers


Disclaimer

All rights reserved, especially those of duplication and distribution as well as translation. No part of the contents is allowed

to be reproduced in any form without written consent of Hamburg Südamerikanische Dampfschifffahrts-Gesellschaft KG;

nor may it be processed, reproduced or distributed using electronic systems.

© 2017 Hamburg Süd

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