flexible stocking for ranchers tool for ......flexible stocking for ranchers dr. justin derner...
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FLEXIBLE STOCKING FOR RANCHERSDR. JUSTIN DERNER
USDA-ARSRangeland Resources and
Systems Research UnitCheyenne, WY/Fort Collins,
CO
TOOL FOR DROUGHT FLEXIBILITY
HAILEY WILMER, JUSTIN DERNER, DAVID AUGUSTINE
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1. The problem: matching forage supply with demand2. One strategy: What and how of flexible stocking3. Economic analysis4. More climate tools for ranchers
FLEXIBILITY: TOOLS AND STRATEGIES
ROAD MAP
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RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE
THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Central Plains Experimental Range, CO
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Annu
al P
reci
pita
tion
(inch
es)
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
Mean: 13.40Max: 22.88 (1967)Min: 4.31 (1964)
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80
63
47
42
27
24
15
Reduce herd size
Purchase feed
Wean early
Rent pasture
Move livestock location
Sell retained yearlings
Place livestock in feedlot
Drought ResponsePercent of ranchers (WY)
Source: Survey of Wyoming Ranchers 2012, N= 307Kachergis et al. Ecosphere 5(6):77.
RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE
THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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48
47
28
22
16
Conservative Stocking
Rest Pasture
Incorporte Yearlings
Grassbank
Use weather predictions to adjust stocking rate
Drought PreparationPercent of ranchers (WY)
Source: Survey of Wyoming Ranchers 2012, N= 307Kachergis et al. Ecosphere 5(6):77.
RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE
THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE
TAKE HOME MESSAGE: RANCHERS NEED PROACTIVE STRATEGIES
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Can drought be an opportunity as well as
a challenge?
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1. Anticipate it with conservative stocking rates2. Predict variability using weather and climate forecasting3. Track variability with flexible stocking strategies4. Use spatial variability that already exists in the landscape5. Create spatial variability to enhance benefits of grassbanking
WORKING WITH VARIABILITY
BUILDING FLEXIBILITY TO DROUGHT
Source: Derner and Augustine, 2016. Rangelands, 38(4), 211-215. Open Access online: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2016.05.002
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PREDICT VARIABILITY
FORECASTS AND TOOLS
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FORECASTS AND TOOLS
PREDICT VARIABILITY
PREDICT IT
US DROUGHT MONITOR
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PREDICT VARIABILITY
FORECASTS AND TOOLS
PREDICT IT
US SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK
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PREDICT VARIABILITY
FORECASTS AND TOOLS
PREDICT IT
SEASONAL FORECASTS
PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE
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PREDICT IT
LONGER TERM CLIMATOLOGICAL
INFLUENES
WARM PHASE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) WARM PHASE ATLANTIC
MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION
PREDICT VARIABILITY
FORECASTS AND TOOLS
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NOAA INFO ON PDO
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
PREDICT VARIABILITY
FORECASTS AND TOOLS
Chen et al. 2017
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PREDICT VARIABILITY
GRASSCAST COMING SOON
PREDICT IT
GRASSLAND PRODUCTIVITY FORECAST
FOR GREAT PLAINS
Brought to you by:• Justin Derner and Dannele
Peck, USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub
• William (Bill) Parton Colorado State University
• Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center
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TRACK VARIABILITY
WITH FLEXIBLE STOCKING
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STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING
TRACK VARIABILITY
1. INCORPORATE YEARLINGS INTO COW-CALF OPERATIONS
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STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING
TRACK VARIABILITY
2. RETAIN MORE HEIFER CALVES IN THE FALL
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3. DRY COW GRAZING IN LATE SPRING AND SUMMER
STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING
TRACK VARIABILITY
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FLEXIBLE STOCKING PREDICTED TO DOUBLE ECONOMIC RETURNS
WITH HIGH QUALITY FORECASTSConservative Stocking, Cow-Calf only
Flexible Stocking, Cow Calf plusYearling
Annual net returns $55,126 $115,221
Advantage of flexible, cow-calf plus yearling $60,095 (109%)
Source: Torell et al 2010 Rangeland Ecology and Management 63: 415-425
ALLEN TORELL
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TRACK VARIABILITY
STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKINGSeason Cow-calf only
“Normal to Wet”
Fall Sell steer calves; Keep heifers for replacements;Sell open cows
Early-spring Consider resting pastures;Breed all replacement heifers
Mid-summer Relax about range conditions;Worry about cattle markets
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TRACK VARIABILITY
STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKINGSeason Cow-calf only
“Normal to Wet”Cow-calf only
“Dry”
Fall Sell steer calves; Keep heifers for replacements;Sell open cows
Sell steer calves and deeper cut of heifers; Sell open cows and poor performers
Early-spring Consider resting pastures;Breed all replacement heifers
Synchronize breeding and preg test after 21 days to identify non-pregnant females to sell
Mid-summer Relax about range conditions;Worry about cattle markets
Early wean calves to reduce forage demand;Sell more cows from base herd
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TRACK VARIABILITY
STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKINGSeason Cow-calf only
“Normal to Wet”Cow-calf with yearlings
“Normal to Wet”
Fall Sell steer calves; Keep heifers for replacements;Sell open cows
Sell yearlings;Retain all steer and heifer calves;Sell open cows
Early-spring Consider resting pastures;Breed all replacement heifers
Consider resting pastures or adding additional yearlings or dry cows;Breed all replacement heifers
Mid-summer Relax about range conditions;Worry about cattle markets
Relax about range conditions;Worry about cattle markets
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TRACK VARIABILITY
STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKINGSeason Cow-calf only
“Dry”Cow-calf with yearlings
“Dry”
Fall Sell steer calves and deeper cut of heifers; Sell open cows and poor performers
Sell yearlings and bottom cut of all calves; Sell open cows and poor performers
Early-spring Synchronize breeding and preg test after 21 days to identify non-pregnant females to sell
Sell rest of steers calves (no yearlings);Synchronize breeding and preg test after 21 days to identify non-pregnant females to sell
Mid-summer Early wean calves to reduce forage demand;Sell more cows from base herd
Early wean calves to reduce forage demand;Keep more of base cow herd
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MOBILITY AND GRASSBANKING
USE AND CREATE VARIABILITY
M. Hess
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MOBILITY AND GRASSBANKING
USE AND CREATE VARIABILITY
Adaptive Grazing Management at the Central Plains Experimental Range
2014: 7 of 10 pastures grazed; 3 rested2015: 4 of 10 pastures grazed; 6 rested2016: 7 of 10 pastures grazed; 3 rested2017: 9 of 10 pastures grazed; 1 rested
Rested
Rested
Sept 9 August 8
Rested
May 16
May 30 July 23
June 20July 8
+460 lbs/ac
+90 lbs/ac
+440 lbs/ac
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TIPS FOR ADAPTATION
STAY INFORMED AND STAY ON TOP OF DROUGHT
• Check seasonal predictions and climate patterns
• Check seasonal temperature forecast
• Update forage estimate periodically in spring
Tolleson, 2917
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•Local Cooperative Extension•Local FSA office•Local NRCS office•Univeristy of Nebraska-Lincoln Drought planning information
http://drought.unl.edu/ranchplan/Overview.aspx
DROUGHT PLANNING AND COPING
RESOURCES AND INFORMATION
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DON’T GET CAUGHT IN A RUT
STAY FLEXIBLE, STAY PROFITABLE
[email protected]: (307) 772-2433 x.113
cell: (307) 631-5928
QUESTIONS? JUSTIN DERNER
USDA-ARS RANGELAND SCIENTIST