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ETS IMPASSE IS EUROPE FACING A REAL EMISSION IMPOSSIBLE? ENVIRONMENT P32

SUPERJET CRASH Probe uncovers catalogue of mistakes by crew and others that led to fatal accident in Indonesia 10

GULF-DREAM US airframer releases new patent drawings of Whisper supersonic business jet concept 19

2013 FORECASTS

WHAT’S ON APPROACH?Our 17 predictions for a year in aerospace

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COMPOSITESINNOVATION

BENEFITS

REDUCED FUEL CONSUMPTION

GREATER FATIGUE RESISTANCE

The model airplanes Burt Rutan played with as a child helped inspire innovation that transformed the aerospace industry. For his fi rst aircraft designs, Rutan drew on his experience with the light, plastic-and-foam models. Though his goal was simplicity and ease of construction, Rutan’s creations helped usher in the composites era in aircraft construction. His radical concepts–from the ahead-of-its-time Beechcraft Starship to the out-of-this-world SpaceShipOne–pushed the conceptual envelope, freeing aviation from the straightjacket of derivative design. The cumulative environmental impact of Rutan’s infl uence is literally incalculable. But there can be no doubt: the planet breathes easier thanks to the countless effi ciencies he pioneered.

Photo courtesy of Mark Greenberg Photography © 2004

“Simplicity and effi ciency drive great aircraft design. It’s not an accident that the best designs also are the most environmentally friendly.”

— Burt Rutan FOUNDER / CHAIRMAN EMERITUS,

SCALED COMPOSITES

BURT RUTAN COMPOSITES VIRTUOSO

8-14 January 2013 | Flight International | 3flightglobal.com

FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

VOLUME 183 NUMBER 5372 8-14 JANUARY 2013

Space

X, R

ex

Featu

resSpaceX makes giant leap with Grasshopper launch P8.

Authorities order immediate action by Tu-204 operators following Red Wings fatal overrun P7

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FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

ETS IMPASSE IS EUROPE FACING A REAL EMISSION IMPOSSIBLE? ENVIRONMENT P32

SUPERJET CRASH Probe uncovers catalogue of mistakes by crew and others that led to fatal accident in Indonesia 10

GULF-DREAM US airframer releases new patent drawings of Whisper supersonic business jet concept 19

2013 FORECASTS

WHAT’S ON APPROACH?Our 17 predictions for a year in aerospace

£3.30

8-14 JANUARY 2013

PIC OF THE WEEK YOUR PHOTOGRAPH HEREAirSpace user Lloyd H posted this shot of a UK Royal Air Force Panavia Tornado GR4. The fighter bears a “Shiny Two” livery marking the centenary of 2 Sqn, which is based at RAF Marham in Norfolk. Open a gallery in flightglobal.com’s AirSpace community for a chance to feature here

Lloyd

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m/AirS

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flightglobal.com/imageoftheday

NEXT WEEK SAFETY REVIEWThere were some high-profile tragedies, but overall 2012 was an exceptionally good year in airline safety. Was it a fluke? We subject the figures to expert analysis

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NEWS THIS WEEK 6 Beijing confirms Y-20 development

7 One last chance to reach defence cut compromise. Airbus hits A380 delivery target

8 Al Baker seeks damages for Doha airport hold-ups

9 Global airliner accident rate reaches historic low in 2012. Airbus Military considers variants as C295 flies with winglet modification

AIR TRANSPORT 10 Silenced warnings doomed Superjet

12 United delays 787 expansion to calm reliability concerns. Crew deployed 777F’s reversers before go-around

13 ATR keen to satisfy 90-seat audience. Landing 747 clipped van’s roof after tower lost track

DEFENCE 14 Alenia eyes position in FCAS alliance.

New Delhi signs $3 billion deals for fighters and transport helicopters

15 Eurofighter lifted by Oman contract

16 Belgian NH90 operations to take off, after first delivery

GENERAL AVIATION 17 Australia looks for tankers to tackle next

year’s fires. G20 summit prompts pitch for Brisbane helipads

BUSINESS AVIATION 18 Middle Eastern luxury role mooted for SIA

A340-500s. Lineage 1000 on the radar for Russia’s rich elite

19 Gulfstream rejigs supersonic business jet design. Bell appeals to FAA over weight exception for 429

BUSINESS 20 EU member states move to ease the

crowding skies

REGULARS5 Comment 38 Straight & Level37 Letters40 Classified 43 Jobs 47 Working Week 44 JOB OF THE WEEK Nagacorp, general

manager, Phnom Penh, Cambodia

COVER STORY22 FORECASTS The big questions What

news can you expect to read in our pages over the coming year? Our in-house experts were bold or foolish enough to play Nostradamus for a predictions package spanning air transport, defence, business aviation and spaceflight

FEATURES32 ENVIRONMENT Stop the clocks

Europe has put its emissions trading system on hold for a year, pressuring the industry to agree a global alternative to the scheme. Will it happen? We explore

John M

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COVER IMAGEThis shot of Long Beach airport’s control tower was shared by John Murphy; visit flickr.com/kingair42 to view his gallery. In our 2013 forecasts feature, we take a look at what is on the horizon for aerospace.See Cover Story P22

flightglobal.com

CONTENTS

THE WEEK ON THE WEBflightglobal.com

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Vote at flightglobal.com/poll

Find all these items at flightglobal.com/wotw

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

45%

Dead cert He’d better dust off his chequebook

Roughly 50:50

23% 32%

Total votes: 2,014

This week, we ask for your thoughts on China’s ambitions to design latest-generation military aircraft: Matter of time – formidable player by 2020s Will still rely on reverse engineering It’s all window dressing

In our festive edition, we said: Richard Branson is willing to bet £1m that the Virgin Atlantic brand will still be around in five years. You said:

HIGH FLIERSThe top five stories for the week just gone:1 Chinese Y-20 revealed in new online pictures

2 Lufthansa cancels order for 747-8I test aircraft

3 Allegiant cancels A319 deal with Cebu Pacific

4 US Navy moves to purchase up to 72 Boeing P-8s

5 Pilots killed as Red Wings Tu-204 crashes on Moscow highway

Our Image of the Day blog carried a shot of a Supermarine

Spitfire captured by Keith Campbell at RAF Waddington – that

same happy hunting ground in which the photographer, whose

AirSpace handle is sunshine

band, snared the image that

was victorious in our latest

annual cover competition. The

moodily lit Second World War-era fighter (left) is part of

the Royal Air Force’s Battle of

Britain Memorial Flight aerial display group. On Asian Skies,

Greg Waldron was plunged into melancholy by the sight of

Kingfisher’s first-class lounge at New Delhi’s Indira Gandhi

International Airport. “Though the carrier seems adamant about resuming service at some point, its abandoned lounge

presents a gloomy, run-down prospect,” he wrote. And, in

reference to a sign for “Kingfishe first oung” (sic), he added: “I

swear I didn’t steal the missing letters for souvenirs.”

Will the A350 fly in 2013? Will a

business jet finally go super-sonic? Will the F-35 feel the

budget axe? And will Virgin Galactic take tourists into

space? As is traditional in the

season of dark days and long

nights, Flight International’s resi-

dent experts have been gazing

into a crystal ball to bring you

answers – or brave attempts at

answers – to all the big ques-

tions on the year’s aerospace agenda. These were gathered

together in our annual forecasts

package (P22) by Dan Thisdell, whose video presentations on

our “findings” can be viewed at

flightglobal.com/forecasts2013

IN THIS ISSUECompanies listedAgustaWestland ...........................................19Air Bagan .......................................................6Airbus ......................................6, 7, 17, 18, 21Airbus Military ......................................6, 9, 21Air Methods ...................................................6Alenia Aermacchi .........................................14Ametek ........................................................21AMR ............................................................21Antonov ...................................................6, 16Arabasco .....................................................18Atlas Táxi Aéreo ............................................17ATR ..............................................................13Aviastar .......................................................12Avio ...............................................................9BAE Systems .........................................14, 15Bell Helicopter .........................................6, 19Boeing .........................6, 7, 12, 13, 15, 18, 21Bombardier .......................................6, 11, 13Boutsen Aviation ..........................................21British Airways ..........................................7, 20CAE .............................................................14CHC Helicopter ............................................19China Cargo Airlines .....................................12Dassault ................................................14, 21Diamond Aircraft ..........................................17Elbit Systems .........................................14, 16Embraer .................................................11, 18Emirates ........................................................7Eurocopter .............................................16, 19Eurofighter ...................................................15ExecuJet ......................................................18Firefly ..........................................................13Fokker............................................................6General Electric .............................................9Gulfstream ...............................................6, 19Hindustan Aeronautics .................................14Honeywell ......................................................6Ilyushin ..........................................................6Indonesian Aerospace .................................11Irkut .............................................................12Jet Aviation ..................................................18Korea Aerospace Industries ..........................21Korean Air ....................................................21Lao Central Airlines ......................................11Lockheed Martin ......................................7, 16Lufthansa ......................................................8NasJet .........................................................18NH Industries ...............................................16Northrop Grumman ......................................15Piaggio Aero ...................................................6Pratt & Whitney ..............................................9Qatar Airways ...........................................8, 12Raytheon .....................................................15Red Wings .....................................................7Rolls-Royce ....................................................6Russian Helicopters ...............................14, 17Saab .............................................................6Saudia Private Aviation ................................18Selex Galileo ................................................14Sikorsky .........................................................7Singapore Airlines ........................................18Sky Aviation .................................................11SpaceX ..........................................................8Sukhoi .............................................10, 11, 14Sundance Helicopters ....................................6Tekhnologia .................................................12Thales ..........................................................21Tupolev ................................................6, 7, 15United Aircraft ..............................................11United Airlines .............................................12United Technologies .....................................21VT Aerospace ...............................................21Wings Air .....................................................13Xian ...............................................................6Yakutia .........................................................11

4 | Flight International | 8-14 January 2013

Download the Military Simulator Census online now.www.flightglobal.com/milisim

High-fidelity maritime patrol aircraft simulators and training systems.

COMMENT


For commentary on the latest developments in US defence aviation programmes, consult our blog The Dew Line at flightglobal.com/dewline See This Week P9

Pain now or pain laterEleventh-hour machinations secured a compromise on US tax policy but only delayed a D-Day for defence spending. And when it comes, activation of the sequester could deliver a disaster

spending by a decentralised appropriations process. In that context, sequestration was supposed to activate automatic budget cuts if approved spending levels ex-ceeded a predetermined cap, but, in practice, legisla-tors simply suspended the rule rather than face the consequences of their own lack of discipline.

Sequestration was revived in August 2011 when Congress almost defaulted on federal debt rather than agree to make concessions on spending cuts with the Obama administration. The Budget Control Act of 2011 required a select committee of lawmakers to agree at least $1.2 trillion in cuts by November 2011, but the group failed. That activated the provision requiring the Treasury to begin sequestering authorised funds to fed-eral agencies totalling $1.2 trillion over 10 years.

The US military should be expected to review spend-ing levels nearly four years after completing one war in Iraq and winding down another in Afghanistan. But the arbitrary, across-the-board reductions imposed by se-questration are not the way to do it.

Were there any doubts, the timid and short-sighted compromise deal that averted the “fiscal cliff” on

1 January proved that the legislative machinery of Washington DC will remain broken for some time, with potentially disastrous consequences for US aerospace.

The deal achieved some clarity over near-term tax policy, but only delayed a day of reckoning for defence spending from the effects of a plainly ill-conceived budget-cutting drill known as “sequestration”.

Moreover, achieving consensus on a sensible ap-proach to reducing US defence spending intelligently is not likely to become easier during the interim.

On New Year’s Eve, a now permanently gridlocked US legislature postponed the sequestration trigger by two months in order to resolve a raging and previously intractable dispute over tax policy.

But in two months’ time, there could be an even more passionate disagreement over raising the federal debt ceiling, set to reach crisis point around that time.

That might leave the military’s budget planners in a scenario perhaps even worse than if the budget seques-ter had already been activated, and not knowing until mid-way through the fiscal year whether or not be-tween 9.4 to 11.4% of the defence budget must some-how be wiped from the ledger by year-end.

It was never supposed to be like this. As a budget-cutting device, the concept of sequestration was invent-ed by Congress in the mid-1980s to curtail deficit See This Week P7

Budget planners will not knowthe extent of needed cuts untilmidway through the fiscal year

First, the good news...

with one every 1.4 million. Since, over that two-year period, the industry did not implement any safety measures that could account for such a dramatic im-provement, the conclusion is that the 2012 figures are a fluke, and the 2013 figures, when we review them in a year’s time, are likely to look like a step backward.

As in recent years, 2012 accidents were almost all precipitated by pilot misjudgements or mismanage-ment. Pilots are the system’s goalkeeper, but the system keeps banging own-goals past them. The solution can only be a fundamental review of the knowledge and skills needed by the modern airline pilot – but, trou-blingly, no such review is happening.

According to Flightglobal’s Ascend consultancy, 2012 was an anomalous year for world airline safe-

ty. It was so good compared with all previous years that it is unlikely to be equalled for some time, let alone beaten, Ascend predicts.

That does not mean airline safety performance will inevitably get worse. Indeed, it will probably continue, albeit gradually, to get better, but only according to a five-year – or even decade – moving average.

The logic behind this reasoning is simple. The fig-ures, derived according to commonly accepted criteria for airline fatal accident rates, imply that 2012 was al-most twice as safe as 2011, the respective rates being one fatal accident every 2.3 million flights compared

How 2012 was a freak year for safety

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THIS WEEK

flightglobal.com6 | Flight International | 8-14 January 2013

For a round-up of our latest online news, feature and multimedia content visit flightglobal.com/wotw

cjoby.

net

BOEING ON COURSE TO REGAIN DELIVERIES CROWNAIRLINERS Boeing has announced it delivered 601 commercial

aircraft in 2012, setting a high bar for Airbus to exceed to maintain

its decade-old lead on yearly output totals. The US-based airframer

has trailed Airbus on deliveries of commercial transports in every

year since 2002, but stepped up output in 2012 as demand for new,

more efficient aircraft soared. Airbus has yet to release 2012 results

but would have had to deliver 86 aircraft in December to overcome

Boeing’s lead. Airbus averaged a monthly delivery rate of about 47

aircraft through November.

UNNAMED BUYER BOOSTS LEARJET 75 BACKLOGORDER An undisclosed customer has ordered six Bombardier

Learjet 75s worth a combined $81 million at list prices, the

Canadian airframer says. The deal increases the order backlog for

the super-light category jet to 11 aircraft, including five for London Air

Services, as revealed by Flightglobal’s Ascend Online Fleets data-

base. Launched in May, the model updates the airframe of the

Learjet 45XR with improved Honeywell TF731 turbofan engines.

SYRIA ACCUSED OF MODIFYING MIG-21 FLEETTHREAT Syria has adapted some of its air force’s Mikoyan MiG-21

fighters to be flown unmanned, and to a carry a “deadly volume” of

chemical warfare agents, Israeli intelligence analysts have claimed.

Sources suggest a Syrian MiG-21, which was flown to Jordan by a

defecting pilot in June 2012, had been fitted with a remote-control

system, and was also capable of dispensing chemical weapons.

AIR METHODS TO GROW WITH BELL 407GX BUYROTORCRAFT US emergency medical services provider Air

Methods has ordered 20 Bell 407GX helicopters to support “future

growth opportunities”. The single-engined aircraft will be dedicated

to air medical transport for critically ill and injured patients. Air

Methods also completed its acquisition of Las Vegas-based aerial

services operator Sundance Helicopters on 31 December.

KAZAKH AN-72 CRASH KILLS 27ACCIDENT An Antonov An-72 transport crashed in southern

Kazakhstan on 25 December, killing all seven crew members and 20

passengers. The military aircraft was being flown between Astana

and Shymkent at the time of the accident, which the National

Security Committee says occurred about 10.8nm (20km) from its

planned destination when making a landing approach.

SAAB SIGNS P180 MPA EQUIPMENT DEALDEVELOPMENT Saab has been awarded a €15.5 million ($20.3

million) contract to integrate surveillance and mission equipment

with a maritime patrol derivative of Piaggio Aero’s P180 Avanti II.

Deliveries will be completed between 2012 and 2015, with

Piaggio planning to fly the first of two prototype aircraft in 2014.

AIR BAGAN LOSES FOKKER 100 IN LANDING ACCIDENTACCIDENT A fatal crash of an Air Bagan Fokker 100 regional jet near

Heho airport in Myanmar on 25 December left two people dead.

Operating as flight W9-011 from Yangon to Mandalay, with 65 pas-

sengers and six crew, the aircraft came down on agricultural land

near the airport, the airline says. One passenger was killed in the

accident and a further eight injured, it says. A further fatality was

sustained on the ground.

BRIEFING

China has officially confirmed it is developing the Xian Y-20

strategic transport following the emergence of images on Chinese defence sites during the last week of 2012.

“We are developing large trans-port aircraft on our own to im-prove the capability of air trans-port,” China’s defence ministry says. “The advanced long-range carrier is being developed to serve the military modernisation drive, as well as to meet demands in dis-aster relief work and humanitarian aid in emergency situations.”

Poor quality images of the first aircraft reveal a four-engined, high-wing transport with a T-tail that appears to be sized between a Boeing C-17 and Airbus Mili-tary’s A400M.

The aircraft is equipped with jet engines with a lower bypass ratio fan inlet – possibly the same Soloviev D-30s that currently power Tupolev Tu-154Ms and Il-yushin Il-76Ds. The production

version of the Y-20 is expected to transition to high-bypass ratio, Chinese-made WS-20 engines, depending on their availability.

The defence ministry has given no indication as to when the Y-20 will be deployed, saying only that “research and development of the large transport aircraft is going for-ward as planned”. However, Chi-nese aviation websites speculate that AVIC subsidiary Xian – which specialises in commercial and military transports – could launch flight testing later this year. If the Y-20 is transitioned into produc-tion, it will join a rapidly growing transport fleet for the Chinese air force, which currently operates the Il-76 as a strategic transport.

Chinese confirmation of the development programme is unu-sual, since Beijing is typically si-lent about the development of new aircraft, numerous examples of which have emerged during the past several years via images on the internet.

TRANSPORTS GREG WALDRON SINGAPORE

Beijing confirms Y-20 developmentChina says long-range airlifter will serve modernisation drive

Images reveal a four-engined, high-wing strategic transport

Gulfstream hails G650 milestonesAPPROVALS KATE SARSFIELD LONDON

Gulfstream’s G650 programme marked three notable mile-

stones in late 2012. On 20 Decem-ber the airframer handed over the first fully outfitted ultra-long-range business jet to an undis-closed customer as the US Feder-al Aviation Administration granted production certification for the top-of-the-range aircraft.

The following day the G650 se-cured European certification.

The landmarks complete a near five-year development and flight-test process for the Rolls-Royce BR725-powered aircraft. Gulf-stream hoped to deliver 17 G650s by the end of 2012 but said in early December the figure would be re-duced “somewhat”.

THIS WEEK


SpaceX makes giant leap with GrasshopperTHIS WEEK P8

Russian authorities have or-dered immediate action by

Tupolev Tu-204 operators in the wake of a fatal overrun by a Red Wings aircraft at Moscow Vnuko-vo, and an incident involving a sister aircraft a week before.

Interstate Aviation Committee investigators have yet to deter-mine why flight WZ9268, a ferry service from Pardubice, careered off the end of Vnukovo’s 3,060m (10,000ft) runway 19 on 29 De-cember. But federal aviation regu-lator Rosaviatsia has ordered a temporary amendment to the op-erating manual regarding use of thrust-reversers on the type, warning pilots to check for early indications that the reverser sys-tem is operating correctly.

After touchdown, with the throttle reduced to idle and the spoilers deployed, the thrust-re-verse control lever should nor-

INVESTIGATION DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Tu-204 thrust-reverser check orderedRussia initiates operating manual amendment warning pilots to be vigilant in wake of fatal overrun by Red Wings aircraft

Airbus achieved its target of 30 A380 deliveries in 2012, in-

cluding 13 in the final quarter alone. The airframer confirms it has reached the total but has yet to indicate the number it intends to deliver in 2013.

Delivery of the final aircraft for 2012 brings the global fleet to 97 of the double-deck type, but also takes the backlog down to 160 – the lowest figure at any point since A380 deliveries began in October 2007.

Parent company EADS stated in July that it expected the deliv-

ery total to fall below 30 during 2013 as Airbus coped with the knock-on effects of a wing-rib cracking problem.

Deliveries of the A380 this year have been heavily back-loaded to the second half. The airframer had only handed over 10 in the first six months of 2012.

Its target of 30 included 11 to Middle Eastern operator Emir-ates, which has ordered a total of 90. There are nine A380 opera-tors, with British Airways set to become a new recipient of the type in 2013.

A380 DELIVERIES

Year Delivered Net ordered End-year backlog

2007 1 33 188

2008 12 9 185

2009 10 4 179

2010 18 32 193

2011 26 19 186

2012 30 4* 160*

2013 Less than 30** - -

* Provisional figure **EADS forecast

mally be moved initially to the “small reverse” position. The en-gine instrument panel should in-dicate that the thrust-reverse lock has opened and then – with the symbol “REV” in green text – that the reverser is active.

The manual specifically warns the crew to check the reverser is

active, with the presence of the green “REV” indication, before committing to maximum reverse thrust. If the indication does not appear after the control lever has been moved to the “small reverse” position, the warning says, the pi-lots should “immediately” disen-gage the lever and continue the

roll-out without reverse thrust. Three cockpit crew and two flight attendants were killed when the aircraft (RA-64047) struck the em-bankment of the M3 arterial high-way, about 200m beyond the run-way end. The other three occupants were seriously injured.

Weather information for the time of the accident indicates light snow showers but good vis-ibility. Measurements at Moscow Vnukovo taken 15min after the accident showed a runway fric-tion coefficient of 0.63, which the Interstate Aviation Committee says “meets the requirements for landing the aircraft type”.

Another Red Wings Tu-204 overrun at Novosibirsk, on 20 De-cember, had already drawn regu-lators’ attention to weight-on-wheels switches on the landing gear, and the possible effect on thrust reversers. Five crew were killed in the accident at Moscow Vnukovo

FLEETS

Airbus hits A380 delivery targetBUDGETS STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

One last chance to reach defence cut compromise

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The US military and other agencies still face spending

cuts estimated at more than $108 billion in FY2013 alone, but were spared immediate action as a re-sult of the fiscal compromise achieved on 2 January between the Obama Administration and Republicans in Congress.

The deal that led to higher tax rates on Americans earning more than $400,000 per year also de-layed a round of mandatory budget cuts – known as the se-quester provision – for two months. Sequestration is a legis-lative device inserted into the Budget Control Act in August 2011, which mandated $1.2 tril-lion in automatic spending cuts on 3 January after the two US po-litical factions failed to agree on a compromise deal last November.

In October, Congressional ap-propriators warned the budget

cuts in FY2013 alone could re-duce procurement of five Boeing CH-47s, eight Sikorsky UH-60s, a total of five F/A-18E/Fs and EA-18Gs, one Boeing P-8A Posei-don and four Lockheed Martin F-35s. The same process could also force the Federal Aviation Administration to cut 2,200 jobs.

Instead, the 2 January agreement delays sequestration for two months, giving Congress one more chance to reach a compromise on cuts. The two-month postpone-ment is financed by an agreement to reduce spending by $12 billion, with the cuts divided equally be-tween defence and non-defence accounts in the federal budget. But after so much gridlock, it is unclear if a compromise can be achieved by 1 March, while more sensitive issues such as raising the debt ceil-ing must also be accomplished in roughly the same period.

THIS WEEK


For a round-up of our latest online news, feature and multimedia content visit flightglobal.com/wotw

Qatar Airways has filed a $600 million legal claim against an

airport construction firm as the fallout from the delay to the open-ing of the New Doha International airport (NDIA) begins.

The airport, which will initially handle 28 milllion passengers an-nually, was originally due to open in December. But Qatar Airways chief executive Akbar Al Baker does not now expect the airline to move into the new airport until the second half of 2013.

“Operational trials of the new airport have been ongoing since the summer as everything was in place, but incomplete airport lounges proved a serious set-back,” says Al Baker.

Qatar Airways, which is set to be the airport operator when it opens, has now filed a legal claim against German-Emirati joint-venture con-struction company Lindner Depa Interiors (LDI). It says LDI had un-dertaken to complete the construc-

One of the most ambitious de-velopment projects in space-

flight took a giant leap last month when SpaceX achieved a 29s flight to a height of 40m – and safely back to the launch pad – with its Grasshopper rocket, a bid to develop a fully reusable verti-cal take-off and vertical landing launch vehicle.

Grasshopper – 10 storeys tall and consisting of a Falcon 9 first stage, Merlin 1D engine, four steel legs with hydraulic dampers and a steel support structure – had “flown” for a few seconds to as high as 5.4m, with a brief hover be-fore landing. A series of succes-sively more sophisticated tests will be carried out at SpaceX’s develop-ment facility in McGregor, Texas, during the next few months.

SpaceX chief Elon Musk says Grasshopper is only the first in a series of projects that he hopes will result in 100% reusability for SpaceX vehicles. Speaking at the Royal Aeronautical Society in London in November – where he showed a video of one of the first Grasshopper test flights, to just a metre or so – Musk said he hoped to be bringing back the first stage from SpaceX flights “in the next

Lufthansa has cancelled a Boeing 747-8I order, reducing its firm

commitment for the type to 19.The aircraft in question,

RC021, which is registered N6067U, was part of Boeing’s three-strong flight-test fleet and used to test cabin systems.

It has been furnished with Lufthansa’s passenger interior and painted in Lufthansa’s basic colour scheme.

The aircraft was scheduled to be delivered as the carrier’s fifth 747-8I last year.

But Lufthansa revealed during the summer that it would only take four aircraft in 2012. Boeing wanted to keep the aircraft for in-ternal purposes for two years, says the airline, and asked to “re-lieve” the delivery schedule.

Lufthansa says it has decided to cancel its order for RC021 “purely due to reasons of flexibility” but that the remaining balance of 15 747-8Is will be delivered as planned until 2015. The airline adds that it might order a “factory-new” 747-8I at a later stage.

tion of 19 airport lounges at the air-port by the summer of 2012 in a $250 million contract, but failed to complete the project on time.

“We have been badly affected as an airline with the delay im-pacting Qatar Airways’ expan-sion plans that include new air-craft deliveries and opening up new routes at the rate we want to and more importantly causing a lot of inconvenience to our pas-sengers in addition to the revenue losses to the airline and its sub-sidiaries,” says Al Baker.

LDI, however, hit back, issuing a statement in which it says it has never had a contract or relation-ship with Qatar Airways. LDI says it is in arbitration proceed-ings with the NDIA, with whom it was contracted to work.

LDI adds it was denied full ac-cess to the project site for the first nine months of the 16 months project. “This delay, combined with NDIA’s refusal to pay accelera-tion costs recommended by its own management consultancy, meant LDI was unable to start all interior contracting work on site as planned. As a result, LDI was una-ble to meet its original contract completion date,” it says.

year or two”, and promised “soon” to unveil a new version of his Dragon cargo or crew capsule capable of landing vertically, on legs. In October 2012 SpaceX began a series of contracted Inter-national Space Station resupply flights, and brought material back from the ISS in a splash-landing Dragon capsule.

Musk added that his full-reusa-bility timetable was “five to six years”, although he confessed that “could be famous last words”. Moreover, he said to the RAeS gathering, he expected that as Grasshopper testing continues, “there will be a few craters along the way”.

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X

Aircraft RC021 is already fitted with a Lufthansa cabin

Musk promises further projects

DELIVERY MICHAEL GUBISCH LONDON

Lufthansa drops order for fifth 747-8ICarrier says remaining 15-strong backlog is unchanged despite cancellation of aircraft Boeing wanted to keep for two years

CONSTRUCTION GRAHAM DUNN LONDON

Al Baker seeks damages for Doha airport hold-ups

TECHNOLOGY DAN THISDELL LONDON

SpaceX makes giant leap with Grasshopper

“Incomplete airport lounges proved a serious setback”AKBAR AL BAKER Chief executive, Qatar Airways

THIS WEEK


Silenced warnings doomed SuperjetAIR TRANSPORT P10

Airbus Military has conducted the first test flight of a potential

future enhancement for its C295 medium transport, with winglets intended to deliver “improved hot and high runway performance, in-creased range and endurance, and reduced operating costs”.

Performed from the company’s San Pablo site in Seville, Spain, on 21 December 2012, the sortie will be followed by other data-gather-ing flights, says Airbus Military.

One potential candidate to re-ceive the winglets is a special mission version of the C295, which will carry an Elta Systems-sourced airborne early warning and control mission system.

Airbus Military last year con-ducted aerodynamic test flights

Pratt & Whitney says it is re-viewing its options after Gen-

eral Electric announced an agree-ment to buy Italian engine parts maker Avio, which is a critical supplier to both companies.

“We’re evaluating this transac-tion and determining the best course of action for our busi-ness,” P&W says. “Until we’ve completed our evaluation it is in-appropriate to speculate on any potential implications.”

The $4.3 billion acquisition of Avio’s non-space business by GE, which is pending government ap-provals, could create an unusual competitive dynamic with P&W.

In addition to supplying key components of GE engines, Avio also is a major supplier to P&W. Avio’s contributions include the fan drive gear system for the PW1524G powering the Bombar-dier CSeries, the merits of which have been criticised by Avio’s po-tential new owners at GE.

GE and Snecma are equal part-ners in the CFM International joint venture that produces the competi-tor to P&W’s geared turbofan – the Leap series. Avio is also a major partner to Snecma in building components on the Leap engines.

Aerospace companies often compete and collaborate on differ-ent projects even at the level of the original equipment manufacturer. GE and P&W compete in the nar-rowbody sector, but collaborate on the Airbus A380’s GP7200 engine.

GE says it expects Avio to keep its portfolio of existing customers after the acquisition closes.

“It is common for engine man-ufacturers to supply components for other engine manufacturers,” GE says.

World airline safety in 2012 was exceptionally good

whichever way the statistics are cut, particularly in terms of acci-dent rates, but also in simple ac-cident numbers.

Paul Hayes, senior safety ana-lyst at Flightglobal consultancy Ascend, has warned, however, that the rate is probably “a bit of a fluke”, and that the figures for 2013 may be less good without actually indicating a reversal in real airline safety.

A single year’s world airline safety statistics, particularly when there are so few fatal or se-rious airline accidents, is not sta-tistically significant except as part of a longer-term trend, Hayes notes. Nevertheless, he adds, 2012 has reinforced a favourable trend in an emphatic manner.

Flightglobal figures show there were 21 fatal airline accidents in

Ascend’s Special Bulletin ana-lysing airline safety performance last year says: “2012 was another good year for safety, with the fatal accident rate falling from about one per 1.4 million flights overall in 2011 to one per 2.3 million flights in 2012.

“On this basis, 2012 was cer-tainly the safest year ever and, on the face of it, 65% safer than 2011, which itself had been labelled ‘the safest year ever’. However, unfor-tunately, we do not believe that the world’s airlines have suddenly become this much safer and 2012’s accident rate, perhaps, should be considered more of a fluke than the new norm.”

A complete 2012 airline acci-dent listing, with a full analysis of airline operational standards and current safety concerns, will be published in Flight International’s 15-21 January edition.

2012, resulting in a total of 425 deaths. This compares with re-spective figures in 2011 of 32 and 514. Flight International’s statisti-cal sample produces figures that vary slightly from those from other

of a demonstrator aircraft featur-ing a fixed rotodome, with the same platform also used for the recent activity.

The design is operated by, or on order for, a total of 16 nations, as recorded by Flightglobal’s MiliCAS database.

Airbus M

ilita

ry

Other data-gathering flights are set to follow the winglet test

SAFETY DAVID LEARMOUNT LONDON

Global airliner accident rate reaches historic low in 2012Expert commends favourable trend while warning against reading too much into figures

ENHANCEMENTS CRAIG HOYLE LONDON

Airbus Military considers variants as C295 flies with winglet modification

POWERPLANTS

GE purchase of Avio leaves P&W scratching head

There were 21 fatal airline accidents in 2012, resulting in a total of 425 deaths, compared with 32 and 514 in 2011

sources even if they tell much the same story. They take account of all fatal airline accidents whether they involve Western- or Eastern-built aircraft, and include aircraft of all weights, sizes and engine types, in passenger and non-pas-senger airline operations.

“We’re evaluating this transaction and determining the best course of action”PRATT & WHITNEY

AIR TRANSPORT


Check out our collection of online dynamic aircraft profiles for the latest news, images and information on civil and military programmes at flightglobal.com/profiles

Investigators probing the fatal Sukhoi Superjet 100 demon-

strator crash in Indonesia have indicated that incorrect coding of the aircraft as a fighter influenced the crucial decision to allow it to descend to low altitude in a mountainous region. But the crew’s failure to monitor a hold-ing orbit put the twinjet on a col-lision course with Mount Salak, and the captain’s silencing of ter-rain-avoidance warnings – believ-ing them to be erroneous – sealed the aircraft’s fate.

National Transportation Safety Committee investigators found that the chain of events leading to the 9 May 2012 accident began with a change of departure run-way at Jakarta Halim Perdanaku-suma airport. The Superjet’s ear-lier demonstration that day had used runway 24, but the ill-fated flight took off from runway 06 at 14:20 local time and turned right to intercept radial 200 from the airport’s VOR beacon.

It climbed to 10,000ft (3,050m) for a short flight planned over

Bogor but the NTSC points out that available charts on board the aircraft “did not contain” infor-mation relating to the Bogor area and the surrounding terrain.

Cockpit-voice recordings show that the Superjet’s captain ex-plained to another individual on board that the switch to runway 06 required the flight to bleed al-titude to avoid being too high for the approach. To lose the excess altitude, the crew requested a de-scent to 6,000ft and a right-hand orbit as the aircraft headed south from Jakarta. However, NTSC in-vestigators discovered that the Ja-karta air traffic controller oversee-ing the flight was unaware that the aircraft was an airliner, be-cause it had been wrongly coded as a Sukhoi Su-30 fighter to cir-cumvent a database limitation.

Flight-data personnel at Jakar-ta, having received a flight plan for the Superjet’s demonstration, assigned the incorrect code be-cause the database being used did not include the new twinjet.

When Jakarta control initially

accepted responsibility for the Superjet flight, the controller checked the aircraft type through his radar display.

Because of the coding, the data indicated that the aircraft was an Su-30. The controller believed the aircraft was a military fighter flying to the Bogor region for a test flight. Bogor is the location of

the Atang Sanjaya military train-ing area, which has an upper air-space limit of 6,000ft – the height to which the Superjet had re-quested descent.

“The [controller] assumed that a military aircraft was eligible to fly in this area,” the NTSC adds. “As a result, [he] approved the

aircraft to descend to 6,000ft.” During the day’s first demonstra-tion flight, the Superjet had turned left, northeast of Mount Salak, to start heading back to Ja-karta. But the second flight’s right-hand orbit took it directly north of the peak.

Ironically, as the aircraft orbit-ed, the captain demonstrated the terrain-awareness function to a customer representative in the cockpit, at a point in the turn when the terrain ahead was rela-tively flat. There was “no prob-lem with terrain at this moment”, the captain said.

To keep the aircraft orbiting, the pilot sequentially adjusted the heading selector – setting it to 333˚, then 033˚, 103˚, 150˚ and 174˚. Investigators believe the crew became distracted by dis-cussions with the customer rep-resentative about fuel consump-tion, and did not notice when the Superjet dutifully rolled out onto the last heading selected, 174˚, which took it south towards Mount Salak.

Serg

ey

Doly

a

Captured during its ill-fated departure from Jakarta, the prototype twinjet had been erroneously coded as a military Su-30 fighter

INVESTIGATION DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Silenced warnings doomed SuperjetPilots failed to maintain tight orbit after descent and put Sukhoi’s demonstrator aircraft on collision course with mountain

Ironically, as the aircraft orbited, the captain demonstrated the terrain-awareness function to a customer in the cockpit

AIR TRANSPORT


United delays 787 expansion to calm reliability concernsAIR TRANSPORT P12

SAFETY

Crew did not attempt evasive action

Investigators have found no evi-

dence that the pilots of a Sukhoi

Superjet 100 that crashed in

Indonesia attempted any evasive

manoeuvre before the jet collided

with terrain. Simulation analysis fol-

lowing the 9 May accident on Mount

Salak shows the collision was inevi-

table during the final 14s of flight.

Recorded flight data shows the air-

craft had been maintaining an alti-

tude of 6,000ft (1,830m) but was

unintentionally left to drift towards

the mountain after the distracted

crew failed to keep the jet turning in

a clockwise holding orbit.

The last 2min of radio altimeter

information shows steadily rising

terrain below the aircraft after it ex-

ited the orbit – travelling south for

4nm (7.4km) on the last heading

selected by the crew – while the pi-

lots discussed a return route to

Jakarta. This closure rate steepened

after the pilots belatedly set a new

heading, intending to turn the air-

craft northwest but effectively steer-

ing it towards the peak.

Although the nearest weather

station was 7nm away, pilot conver-

sation suggests the presence of

heavy cloud. “It is reasonable to

conclude that the cloud cover pre-

vented the pilots being able to see

the mountainous terrain,” says the

Indonesian National Transportation

Safety Committee. It notes the crew

was preparing to request descent to

1,600ft, further illustrating they were

unaware of looming high ground.

The terrain-awareness warning

system sounded several alerts – in-

cluding a “pull up” – but the crew

switched it off 10s later, believing it to

be spurious. Flight-control data shows

no evidence of evasive manoeuvring

during the first 24s after the warning,

during which escape would have been

possible. For the 14s beyond this, the

inquiry says, any pilot action “would

not successfully avoid collision with

terrain”. Seven seconds before im-

pact, the captain briefly flicked the

sidestick back – a momentary input

that disconnected the autopilot – but

the inquiry determined this “could not

be an indication of an attempted

escape action”.

Keep up to date with aviation safety at our dedicated channel: flightglobal.com/safety

Uncertainty over sales prospects

for the Sukhoi Superjet has re-

ceded after completion of the

Indonesian investigation and

vindication of the aircraft’s tech-

nical integrity.

Indonesia’s Sky Aviation has

signed a delivery and accept-

ance agreement for its first

Superjet, serial number 95022,

which will be delivered and put

into operation during January.

The airframer is interested in

Indonesian co-operation on

Superjet manufacture, but the

extent of any partnership has yet

to be determined.

United Aircraft president

Mikhail Pogosyan, speaking dur-

ing a Moscow briefing in

December, said there was poten-

tial value from the involvement of

Indonesian Aerospace in the

programme. “I have inspected

its plant,” he says, adding that it

supplies other airframers. “It

has mastered the quality stand-

ards of prominent Western man-

ufacturers. Sukhoi is interested

in co-operation with it.”

Pogosyan says discussions

have been held on manufactur-

ing Superjet airframe parts and

sub-assemblies. But he says any

industrial co-operation would not

be intended as a political tool to

obtain additional sales to

Indonesian customers. Laotian

authorities have also validated

the Superjet’s type certificate,

clearing the way for delivery to

customer Lao Central Airlines.

The carrier, previously known

as Phongsavanh Airlines, agreed

to acquire three Superjets and

Sukhoi says the first will arrive in

early 2013. “We are glad Sukhoi

Superjet 100 has been recog-

nised by the countries of south-

east Asia,” says Igor Vinogradov,

Sukhoi first vice-president for

development and certification.

“This will allow us to deliver the

aircraft to Laos.”

Russian carrier Yakutia became

the third customer to deploy the

Superjet after it received its first

aircraft, 95019, on 18 December.

The delivery follows tests and ap-

proval to use the aircraft for high-

latitude operations.

Yakutia intends to take two of

the type, configured with eight

business-class and 85 economy-

class seats. The second will ar-

rive in the first quarter of this

year. General director Ivan Prostit

says the Superjet will operate

routes from Yakutsk to

Khabarovsk, Blagoveshchensk,

Vladivostok and other cities in

the far east of Russia.

Sukhoi says it gained supple-

mental type certification for high-

latitude operations – up to 78˚

north – in November 2012.

“Flight tests proved the proper

functioning of the aircraft avion-

ics, most notably the inertial ref-

erence system and the satellite

navigation systems,” it adds.

The Superjet faces potential

competition from rival 90-seat

aircraft on its home territory fol-

lowing Russian certification ap-

proval for the Bombardier

CRJ900 and Embraer 190.

Additional reporting by Vladimir Karnozov, Moscowand Mavis Toh, Singapore

Indonesian deliveries begin after crash probe vindicates twinjet

Yaku

tsk

airport

Yakutia became the third operator of the type in December

This “prolonged conversation”, unrelated to the flight, and a sub-sequent exchange about the head-ing to return to Jakarta preoccu-pied the crew, says the NTSC. “Consequently, the aircraft unin-tentionally exited the orbit.”

By the time the pilots adjusted the heading selector again, to 325˚, nearly a minute had passed since the aircraft left the orbit. This new heading turned the air-craft into the mountain peak, gen-erating terrain-avoidance warn-ings, which the pilots disregarded as being false.

The aircraft’s warning system called “terrain ahead, pull up” about 38s before the crash, and the alert “avoid terrain” sounded six times. But the NTSC says: “The [captain] inhibited the [ter-rain-warning] system, assuming the warning was a problem on the database.” Seven seconds before impact with the mountain, the aircraft’s warning systems also alerted the pilot to the landing-gear not being deployed.

Analysis by the NTSC suggests

the aircraft might have been able to avoid the impact up to 24s after the initial terrain warning.

About 6min after the request to descend to 6,000ft, the Superjet struck a steep slope on Mount Salak, at a speed of about 200kt (370km/h), and disintegrated. There were no survivors among the 45 occupants.

The Superjet had been taking part in an Asian tour for custom-ers of the type, including Indone-sian operator Sky Aviation.

Jakarta’s radar service had not established a minimum altitude for vectoring aircraft in certain areas, says the inquiry, and its system was not equipped with functioning minimum safe alti-tude warnings for the area sur-rounding Mount Salak.

It adds: “The crew were not aware of the mountainous area surrounding the flightpath due to various factors, resulting in disre-garding the [terrain] warning.”

AIR TRANSPORT


Check out our collection of online dynamic aircraft profiles for the latest news, images and information on civil and military programmes at flightglobal.com/profiles

Russian airframer Aviastar has completed assembly of the

first major fuselage section for the Irkut MS-21 medium-range twin-jet. The aft fuselage segment has been built for the static-test pro-gramme and will be sent to Latvi-an capital Riga to undergo pres-surisation testing on a local rig.

These tests will involve 300,000 test cycles, each lasting about 5min, whereby the fuselage section is pressurised and vented to validate its design service life of 60,000 flights, says Irkut direc-tor Sergei Milyukov.

Ulyanovsk-based Aviastar is re-sponsible for the manufacture of about 1,300 items for MS-21 air-frames and it has produced test ex-amples of some 900 primary parts. MS-21 airframe designer Sergei Savin says a portion of these has been handed to the Central Aero-hydrodynamics Institute for struc-tural testing. “Other parts are being checked for lightning and static electricity protection at the Gromov Flight Test Institute,” he adds.

Aviastar intends to build the first MS-21 carbonfibre tail as-sembly this year using materials and moulds supplied by compos-ite specialist Tekhnologia.

Danish investigators have con-cluded a Chinese Boeing 777

freighter struck its tail twice after a bounced landing and that its crew opted to go around even though reverse thrust had already been activated.

The aircraft, operated by China Cargo Airlines, bounced three times as it touched down at Co-penhagen after a flight from Shanghai on 17 April 2011. It had landed with a descent rate of 160ft/min (0.81m/s) at an air-speed of 143kt (265km/h), some 5kt below the reference speed for its 252t landing weight.

After the 777F bounced for the third time the speedbrake handle

United Airlines has delayed the launch of the majority of

its planned international flights with the Boeing 787 as it works with the airframer to improve air-craft reliability.

The Chicago-based Star Alli-ance carrier will begin flights between Los Angeles and Tokyo Narita on 3 January as planned but has delayed the launch of flights between Hou-ston Intercontinental and Lagos, London Heathrow and Amsterdam, according to an employee newsletter.

Service to Lagos will begin in “late January” instead of 3 Janu-ary, and London on 1 March in-stead of 4 February. Amsterdam flights, originally scheduled for 4 December 2012, have been put back to 24 February.

United still plans to begin flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai Pudong on 30 March, and between Denver and Tokyo on 31 March.

“By delaying the [Lagos] and [Heathrow] service, we will use

this additional time to work with Boeing to continue to improve the reliability of the aircraft,” says the airline.

Boeing has been investigating an electrical system malfunction that caused a United 787 to divert and make an emergency landing

in New Orleans on 4 December, as well as an electrical problem that grounded a Qatar Airways 787 during its delivery flight in the same month.

was activated, deploying the ground spoilers and the thrust re-versers on the General Electric GE90 engines.

The reversers deployed during the space of 11s but as the aircraft decelerated its pitch gradually in-creased to 10.5˚, enough to cause its tail to strike the runway.

Danish investigation authority HCL says this initial impact re-sulted from the pilot failing to keep the pitch under control by applying light forward pressure on the control column. As the pitch-up attitude increased, the pilot opted to abort the landing, despite the thrust-reversers hav-ing already been deployed.

Boeing’s flightcrew training manual for the 777F states that a full-stop landing “must be made” once reverse thrust is initiated after touchdown. But the HCL says the combination of the bounced landing, and the limited forward view caused by the pitch-up, “probably caused an uncer-tainty” regarding the runway available to stop the jet.

HCL analysis, however, shows there was some 1,700m (5,600ft) of runway remaining at the point the go-around was initiated.

“It is the opinion of the [inves-tigators] that the remaining run-way was sufficient and safe to make a full stop,” it adds.

During the go-around, with re-versers and spoilers stowed, the aircraft was rotated to a pitch of 10.2˚, which resulted in a second tail-strike, prolonged as the pitch continued to increase to 11.9˚. The aircraft became airborne with 760m of runway remaining.

HCL says the tail-strikes inflict-ed substantial damage to the lower fuselage. Several sections of fuse-lage skin were split through to the interior and the rear pressure bulk-head’s frame was worn. The air-craft returned to make a safe land-ing on the same runway.

United A

irlin

es

Boeing initially thought generator units were behind the problem

OPERATIONS EDWARD RUSSELL WASHINGTON DC

United delays 787 expansion to calm reliability concernsNew international services put on hold while carrier and airframer address electrical issue

Crew deployed 777F’s reversers before go-aroundSAFETY DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

TESTING TOM ZAITSEV MOSCOW

MS-21 fuselage section emerges

For in-depth coverage of carriers throughout the world, go toflightglobal.com/airlines

Keep up to date with aviation safety at our dedicated channel: flightglobal.com/safety

AIR TRANSPORT


Eurofighter lifted by Oman contractDEFENCE P15

ATR has received strong interest from clients regarding a 90-

seat turboprop and is waiting for the company’s shareholders, EADS and Alenia Aermacchi, to give the go-ahead to launch the project.

“We’ve finished our major part of the work, and now the ball is in the camp of the shareholders,” ATR chief executive Filippo Bag-nato said during inauguration of its training facility in Singapore.

“The aircraft is not a modifica-tion. It’s a completely new air-craft. The overall philosophy is the same but the wings, landing

Luxembourg’s air navigation service failed to keep track of

a maintenance vehicle before it was hit by a landing Boeing 747 freighter in low-visibility condi-tions, investigators have found.

Electrical maintenance person-nel had been working on cen-treline lights and parked a van on Luxembourg’s runway 24, 340m (1,100ft) from the threshold. The crew ran for cover when they heard the Cargolux 747-400F car-rying out a Category IIIb approach after arriving from Barcelona on 21 January 2010.

Fog had reduced runway visual range to 350m and, although one of the pilots briefly saw the van, the sighting came too late to take evasive action. One of the 747’s right-hand main-gear tyres hit the

gear, fuselage, everything will be bigger,” he added.

While the turboprop manufac-turer has conducted a feasibility study in readiness for a decision, the limitation of engineering re-sources resulting from EADS’s focus on the crucial Airbus A320neo and A350 programmes means a new turboprop might not be approved in the near term.

“We’re in regular contact with our customers and there is defi-nitely strong demand for the 90-seater turboprop,” Bagnato says, adding that he expects a

new aircraft could take five years to receive certification.

The airframer has a clear project for the larger turboprop and is re-fining the design, adds ATR senior vice-president for product support and services Lilian Brayle.

Lion Air president Rusdi Kira-na, whose regional subsidiary Wings Air will be the largest ATR operator, says he is “definitely in-terested” in the larger turboprop as it will be “more economical”. He is also open to switching from jets to turboprops on some routes to cut costs. “Now the trend is for

the aircraft to go bigger and big-ger, with the lack of pilots, con-gestion and growing market,” Kirana says. “The question is, is ATR willing to take the risk? If Bombardier comes up with a 90-seater, I will take it for sure. Of course, if ATR does it, I’m happier because of the commonality.”

Malaysia Airlines turboprop operator Firefly has also said it is keen to be a launch customer for a larger turboprop. Rival Bombar-dier had previously indicated it could develop a larger version of the 70-seat Q400.

roof of the van during the flare. The pilots were unaware of the collision and the jet touched down safely, with only cuts to the tyre.

Luxembourg’s Administration of Technical Investigations says a shortage of resources led air navi-gation service ANA to schedule centreline lighting maintenance during normal operating hours. But it adds that the decision to pursue this work in low-visibility conditions, without hampering air traffic, “gave priority to flight operations over safety aspects”.

The van had been cleared on to the runway 22min before the col-lision. Two tower personnel said the van was instructed to vacate the runway while the 747 was still 6-8min from landing. “However, the [air traffic control] recordings

show no trace of a communication during that specific period of time,” says the inquiry, adding that no communication was cap-tured from the ground frequency between the van being cleared to enter the runway and the accident. The inquiry could not determine whether tower controllers used memory aids to mark the van’s presence on the runway.

Tower controllers said they re-

ceived a “carrier wave” audio sig-nal on the ground frequency and assumed this meant the vehicle had vacated the area, but the in-quiry could not establish the exist-ence of the signal. Read-back pro-cedures to confirm the van had left the runway were not applied.

Controllers could not see the col-lision and were only made aware by the 747 pilot after landing. One maintenance engineer said he “ran for his life”. Luxembourg airport had no surface surveillance equip-ment and investigators say proce-dures governing access of vehicles to the runway in low-visibility con-ditions were “inadequate”. There was a “lack of adequate co-ordina-tion” between the control tower and the maintenance department, the inquiry adds.

AIRFRAMES MAVIS TOH SINGAPORE

ATR keen to satisfy 90-seat audienceTurboprop manufacturer yet to convince shareholders despite Asian regional carriers’ interest in potential larger aircraft

Landing 747 clipped van’s roof after tower lost trackINVESTIGATION DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Luxe

mbourg

AET

Engineers “ran for their lives”

Passenger Convenience Quicker Aircraft Turns

737NG Stowage Bin

DEFENCE


For free access to Flightglobal’s Defence e-newsletter visit flightglobal.com/ defencenewsletter

Italy’s Alenia Aermacchi is keen to become involved in the Fu-

ture Combat Air System (FCAS) demonstrator programme being jointly developed by the UK and France via their aerospace cham-pions BAE Systems and Dassault Aviation. Alenia Aermacchi chief executive Giuseppe Giordo be-lieves the Franco-British alliance created by the Lancaster House treaty of November 2010 “is not a closed one”, and that the nations may be willing to “consider other partners to enter it”.

However, Giordo cautions that Alenia would only be willing to join if it was given equal billing with the two other manufacturers. “Clearly we will not enter with a secondary role. If the French and British can understand that another party can enter at the same level [as BAE Systems and Dassault] this will be a sound approach.”

India has concluded two major deals to acquire additional

fighters and helicopters, with un-official estimates putting the com-bined value of the transactions at about $3 billion.

Hindustan Aeronautics signed a deal with the defence ministry for an additional batch of 42 locally as-sembled Sukhoi Su-30MKI fight-ers. New Delhi had previously placed orders for a combined 272 of the type, including HAL-com-pleted examples, and has received at least 120. An industry source says the Indian air force has plans to eventually operate up to 350 of the multirole aircraft.

Russian state arms export com-pany Rosoboronexport also signed an agreement to supply an additional consignment of Mil Mi-17V5 transport helicopters during an official visit to the na-

Alenia Aermacchi has been awarded a $140 million con-

tract by Elbit Systems for its part of a shared logistics support deal linked to 30 M-346I advanced jet trainers which have been ordered for use by the Israeli air force.

Services to be provided will in-clude supply, maintenance and overhaul, with the deal believed to be for 20 years.

In July, Israel placed contracts worth about $975 million to cover aircraft deliveries, plus an initial package of training and logistics and technical support services. Final assembly work on the first aircraft will begin early this year at Alenia’s Venegono site, with deliveries to start in mid-2014.

The M-346I will use Elbit’s em-bedded virtual avionics system, with the company also supplying a ground-based training system with partners including Alenia, CAE and Selex Galileo.

For more about unmanned air vehicle operations, visitflightglobal.com/uav

tion by president Vladimir Putin on 26 December. Russian Heli-copters says the order falls under an 80-unit deal signed in 2008.

Russian Helicopters has also agreed to form a joint venture with private Indian firm Elcom

Systems Group linked to Kamov and Mil helicopters. The entity will first produce components for the Ka-226T in India, but could later be expanded to perform final assembly and flight-test activities, Russian Helicopters says.

The Italian authorities are talk-ing to their British and French counterparts, as well as other gov-ernments across Europe, to iden-tify “which is the best alliance” for Alenia’s involvement, he adds.

Giordo was speaking at an event marking the second flight of

the Dassault-led Neuron from Is-tres in southern France on 19 De-cember. Produced by six Europe-an nations and aerospace companies including Alenia, the Neuron is a stealthy unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) tech-nology demonstrator.

The possibility was also raised that BAE could become involved in the Neuron, bringing with it technology developed for the UK’s Taranis UCAV demonstrator programme. However, Dassault chief executive Charles Edel-stenne plays down this possibili-ty: “The Neuron programme has a certain number of partners and we have to go to the end of it. It is out of the question to bring in an-other partner.” BAE and Dassault, he says, will instead draw on their experiences from Neuron and Taranis to “inform” the de-sign of the FCAS.

Nonetheless, Edelstenne re-mains open to the potential of other countries becoming in-volved. “Others will join or not join in the future,” he says.

UNMANNED SYSTEMS DOMINIC PERRY ISTRES

Alenia eyes position in FCAS allianceItalian manufacturer keen to help develop demonstrator programme but only on equal terms with Franco-British partners

ACQUISITIONS GREG WALDRON SINGAPORE

New Delhi signs $3 billion deals for fighters and transport helicopters

Additional Mi-17V5 rotorcraft will enter air force service

The Neuron demonstrator is currently involved in flight testing

Russia

n H

elic

opte

rs

Dassault

LOGISTICS

Elbit to share M-346 support

DEFENCE


NH90 operations to take off, after first deliveryDEFENCE P16

Oman will become the seventh nation to field the Eurofighter

Typhoon, having signed a long-expected contract for 12 of the type in late December.

Omani interest in the Typhoon first became public in mid-2008, but the sale was the subject of protracted discussions between the nation, the UK government and Eurofighter partner company BAE Systems.

BAE says deliveries of Mus-cat’s Tranche 3 fighters will com-mence during 2017, with the deal including a provision to equip the type with an active electroni-cally scanned array (AESA) radar now being developed by the Eu-roradar consortium.

Announced on 21 December, the sale also includes eight Hawk advanced jet trainers, plus BAE’s provision of in-service support

to the Royal Air Force of Oman during its future operation of both fleets.

The Eurofighter consortium has so far delivered more than 340 air-craft to the air forces of partner na-tions Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, plus export users Austria and Saudi Arabia. Its new order from Oman represents its first sale of the type in five years, since Riy-adh signed a 72-aircraft deal, also via the UK government.

Muscat’s selection of the new-generation Hawk follows previ-ous orders for the variant from the UK Royal Air Force and Saudi Arabia, the latter of which will receive 22 examples from 2016. It also takes BAE’s total number of Hawks sold to 998 units.

Meanwhile, BAE has revealed that price continues to be the key hurdle in completing the remain-

ing 48 Typhoons contained within its existing Project Salam deal with Riyadh. The company has so far delivered 24 aircraft assembled at its Warton site in Lancashire.

BAE on 20 December said that further aircraft are being complet-ed for delivery in 2013, and that

outstanding issues relate to price rather than timing. The original deal was based on 2005 economic conditions, but a re-pricing of the 12-year contract for aircraft, sup-port, maintenance, upgrades and training has been under discus-sion for two years. The sides are also discussing a Saudi request to have its last 24 examples adapted for the subsequent insertion of Tranche 3 capabilities, such as the AESA sensor and advanced air-launched weapons.

The UK company says both parties remain committed to the Salam deal, but warns that a fail-ure to resolve the contractual issue before its full year results an-nouncement on 21 February will affect underlying earnings.

The Indian navy has taken de-livery of its first Boeing 737-

based P-8I maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare aircraft, as the US Navy has initiated a process that could lead to a multi-year order for up to 72 P-8As.

India is obtaining eight P-8Is under a $3.9 billion deal signed in January 2009, with the type to

replace its navy’s Tupolev Tu-142s. Two more aircraft will be delivered during 2013, while Boeing says it is also “progressing on schedule” in assembling the customer’s next two examples.

The USN is seeking to transition its P-8A acquisition programme from annual purchases to a multi-year format between fiscal year

2015 and FY2019, according to an acquisition notice released on 21 December. The service, which re-ceived its first of a planned 117 production examples in March 2012, requires the approval of the Department of Defense and US Congress to make the shift. Additional reporting by Zach Rosenberg in Washington DC

UNMANNED SYSTEMS

Seoul ponders RQ-4 purchase

DELIVERIES GREG WALDRON SINGAPORE

Boeing ramps up Indian P-8I project

South Korea has requested in-formation on a possible $1.2

billion purchase of four Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk un-manned air vehicles, plus associ-ated equipment and services.

The US Defense Security Coop-eration Agency notified Congress on 24 December of the potential transaction, referring to the air-craft as Block 30(I) examples. However, the type would carry the Raytheon enhanced integrated sensor suite; standard equipment on the earlier Block 20 version flown by the US Air Force.

Seoul’s request is the latest step in a long process as it has repeat-edly declined such a transaction over cost and reliability concerns.

The USA operates Global Hawks and other surveillance as-sets over the Korean Peninsula, but will transition overall com-mand of forces in the area to the South Korean military in 2015.

ORDERS DAN THISDELL LONDON GREG WALDRON SINGAPORE

Eurofighter lifted by Oman contractMuscat to receive 12 Tranche 3 combat aircraft from 2017, with BAE also to supply eight Hawk advanced jet trainers

Kats

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The UK led the Typhoon offer

For commentary on the latest global defence news, go to flightglobal.com/dewline

Boein

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Two more of the maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare aircraft should be accepted in 2013

DEFENCE


For free access to Flightglobal’s Defence e-newsletter visit flightglobal.com/ defencenewsletter

Poland’s air force has with-drawn the last of its Antonov

An-2 utility aircraft from use, al-most 60 years after fielding the biplane type. A retirement cere-mony was held at the service’s 42nd air base in Radom-Sadków in mid-December.

Warsaw’s first Soviet-manufac-tured An-2 was delivered in 1951 but its air force formally declared the transport as having entered service in September 1956, when the first An-2T was presented in its camouflage markings.

The Polish Aviation Works in Mielec started licensed manufac-turing of the PZL An-2 in 1960, and delivered 138 examples to the nation’s armed forces by 2002. Poland’s last 10 examples were transferred to Radom for training purposes in 2009, before the de-fence ministry announced last year that their duties would be as-sumed using PZL Mielec M28 Bryza twin-turboprops.

The Israeli air force has award-ed Elbit Systems a roughly

$90 million contract to supply it with additional Hermes 900 un-manned air systems within the next three years. Announced in late December, the deal also in-cludes the company’s provision of UAS maintenance services over an eight-year period.

Building on a launch order for the type signed in May 2010, the Hermes 900 commitment was among a raft of deals made be-tween the air force and Elbit in

Belgium has accepted its first of eight NH90 helicopters

from NH Industries partner com-pany Eurocopter.

One of four to be produced for the Belgian Air Component in the tactical transport helicopter con-figuration, the rotorcraft was de-livered at Eurocopter’s Marignane site near Marseille on 21 Decem-ber. Manufactured in the NH90’s final operational configuration

Keep up to date with all the defence news from Israel atflightglobal.com/ariel-view

standard, the asset will enter use soon, with the first Belgian pilots and technicians having begun training on the type in July 2012.

Belgium’s other four NH90s will be produced in the NATO frigate helicopter (NFH) variant. Two will be embarked aboard naval vessels, while the remain-der will replace Westland Sea Kings in providing search and rescue services.

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End for biplane after 60 years

NH Industries says it has so far delivered 133 NH90s to operators in 14 countries

air force’s Boeing F-15 and Lock-heed F-16 combat aircraft during the next four years, plus advanced observation and long-range target acquisition systems and battle management system avionics for combat helicopters. The company will also provide continued virtu-al training for Israeli fighter pilots and operational and maintenance services at its flight academy under a six-year pact.

late December. Under the first of these, the company is to upgrade the service’s Lockheed Martin C-130H fleet, with the work to ex-tend the tactical transport’s oper-ating life and significantly improve its mission capabilities.

Elbit will integrate digital avion-ics equipment in place of obsolete analogue systems, and says the en-hancements will reduce operating costs and improve flight safety, particularly in adverse weather conditions and during precision and low-level night flying.

Israel has an active inventory of 16 Hercules, as recorded by Flightglobal’s MiliCAS database, including six C-130H transports and four KC-130H tankers. Six older E-model examples are to be retired from use, with the first of three new-generation C-130Js to be received during 2013. The air force has recently begun talks with Lockheed about a possible follow-on order for three more.

Other deals worth a combined $190 million will see Elbit supply electronic warfare systems for the

Israeli air force awards upgrade, UAV deals to ElbitCONTRACTS ARIE EGOZI TEL AVIV

Meanwhile, Eurocopter has also handed over the French navy’s first NFH-variant NH90 completed in a “Step B” version. An enhancement over the seven examples already operated by the service, the model features improved capability in performing anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare tasks.

NH Industries says it has so far delivered 133 NH90s to operators in 14 countries.

ROTORCRAFT CRAIG HOYLE LONDON

Belgian NH90 operations to take off, after first deliveryEurocopter hands over first of eight aircraft as French navy also accepts “Step B” NFH variant

SERVICE

Polish air force retires last An-2

GENERAL AVIATION


Embraer Lineage 1000 on the radar for Russia’s rich eliteBUSINESS AVIATION P18

Australia’s National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC)

has begun the tender process to-wards securing the provision of a number of key services from the 2013-14 fire season onwards.

An invitation to tender for the supply of aerial fire-fighting serv-ices – including rotary- and fixed-wing firebombing – was issued on 11 November and closed on 6 December. The three-year con-tract is expected to be awarded by the end of May 2013, according to the tender document.

Following on from this, in late November the NAFC put out a request for proposals for the pro-vision of large fixed-wing air tankers which closes in early January 2013.

The RFP is aimed at fixed-wing aircraft capable of delivering at least 5,000 litres of fire suppres-sant or retardant in one load. If the proposals are considered suitable, the process could con-tinue to the tender stage, says the NAFC.

Two further tenders will be is-

sued in 2013, it says. The first, for the provision of light fixed-wing aircraft in a reconnaissance role, will be advertised in early 2013 and the second, requesting data integration services for its aircraft tracking system, will follow by mid-year.

NAFC is the central organisa-tion established by Australia’s states and territories to procure aerial firefighting resources. In the last fire season, 2011-12, the NAFC contracted a national fleet of 52 aircraft.

Brisbane City Council and the Queensland government

have unveiled plans for twin heli-pads to be built on the Brisbane River ahead of the G20 summit due to take place in the Austral-ian city in November 2014.

The administrations are seek-ing expressions of interest to lead the project, which is expected to

cost A$3.8-A$9 million ($3.99-$9.43 million).

The twin helipads will sit side by side. Construction would need to start in early 2014 for comple-tion by the middle of the year. The facility will have to be able to withstand floods like those that hit the city in January 2011.

Brisbane central business dis-

trict has not had a helipad since 2005, when a single pad on the river was dismantled following an accident the previous year when a helicopter crashed into the river.

Meanwhile, opposition is mounting regarding a proposed floating heliport to be located in Sydney Harbour.

Newcastle Helicopters pro-posed to operate tourist flights from the floating heliport, having secured the exclusive distribution rights in Australia of the Cubisys-tem floating pontoon and platform system. However, residents and local councils have complained that the plan was approved with-out proper consultation.

Diamond Aircraft has tested on the DA42 what it consid-

ers the first fly-by-wire system for an aircraft in the general avia-tion category.

The four-axis fly-by-wire sys-tem was flown on the twin-en-gined aircraft as part of the small aircraft future avionics architec-ture (SAFAR) research project, which is funded by the EU, Dia-mond says.

The DA42 control system is designed to prevent pilots from accidentally overstressing the aerodynamic or structural char-acteristics of the aircraft, Dia-mond says. A computer inter-prets inputs by the pilot, and signals the control surfaces with the optimal movement.

Fly-by-wire technology is a critical step in Diamond’s ulti-mate goal to introduce more so-phisticated safety features in the DA42, including automatic take-off, flight and landing.

Airbus introduced fly-by-wire in commercial aircraft with the A320 in the late 1980s, and it has since been adapted for smaller air-craft, including the Bell 525 and the midsize Embraer Legacy 500.

Meanwhile, Diamond’s dis-tributor for Australia and New Zealand, Hawker Pacific, has sold a DA42NG to flight training school Australian Wings Acade-my, which will complement the Queensland company’s fleet of single-engined DA40s.

Brazilian operator Atlas Táxi Aéreo has become the first

export customer for the Kamov Ka-62 following an order for seven of the medium twin-

engined type and options for seven more.

Deliveries will be staggered over 12 months, beginning in early 2015.

Under the terms of the con-tract, Atlas Táxi and the Obo-ronprom subsidiary will jointly establish a service centre in Brazil, which will support the Russian Helicopters fleet within the country.

Atlas Táxi already operates Mil Mi-171A1 medium twins for offshore transportation.

Meanwhile, the helicopter manufacturer’s Ka-32A11BC has secured Australian certification, paving the way for the twin- engined type to be deployed for search and rescue and fire-fighting missions throughout the country.

G20 summit prompts pitch for Brisbane helipadsINFRASTRUCTURE EMMA KELLY PERTH

CONTRACT

Australia looks for tankers to tackle next year’s firesBody set up to pool resources issues tender request for large fixed-wing water bombers

Deliveries of the twin-engined Ka-62 will begin in early 2015

TECHNOLOGY

Diamond tests fly-by-wire kit on DA42 twin

Atlas Táxi deal launches Ka-62 exportsDELIVERY KATE SARSFIELD LONDON

Russia

n H

elic

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BUSINESS AVIATION


Keep up to date with all the latest business and general aviation news at flightglobal.com/bizav

Boeing is confident that it can convince almost all Boeing

747 VIP customers to buy the -8 variant of the jumbo.

There are around 25 of the older variants of the 747 – including the -200, -300, -400 and SP – in service, says Boeing Business Jets president Capt Steve Taylor. Most are in the Middle East, and some have been in service for more than 20 years and need to be replaced gradually over the next few years, he adds.

“The 747 remains the best air-craft in this large-aircraft VIP seg-ment, which is targeted at the heads of states, especially in the Middle East,” says Taylor. “This replacement programme is not an immediate thing and will evolve slowly. But we are confident that the vast majority of these aircraft will be replaced by the 747-8.”

Boeing has sold nine 747-8s in the VIP configuration and will have delivered seven by the end of 2012. Rival Airbus has not been as successful with its attempts to pro-pose the A380 as a potential 747 replacement in the VIP segment, having sold only one aircraft to a customer who has not managed to find a completion centre.

“The reality is that the A380 is not very successful as a VIP air-craft,” says Taylor. “We really do not view it as a significant com-petitor to our product.”

Airbus is in talks with poten-tial customers in the Middle

East about offering the Singapore Airlines A340-500s that it is buying back as reconfigured VVIP aircraft.

The European airframer ac-quired the five aircraft as part of a deal that saw SIA order addi-tional A350-900 and A380 pas-senger aircraft.

The first SIA A340-500 will re-turn to Airbus in the fourth quar-ter of 2013, giving the company enough time to talk to potential customers about the aircraft, which is likely to include the new Gala cabin concept.

“The A340-500s are being tar-geted at the VVIP market,” says François Chazelle, vice-president for Airbus Corporate Jets. “They are large and have a long range, and are perfect for this. In the VVIP configuration, they can go even further than the flights be-tween Singapore and New York that SIA operated.

“We have spoken to potential outfitters and will be able to gauge the response from the potential customers in the coming months. There is some time before the air-craft arrive and that gives us time to work out the design and config-uration. It can then take around 12

to 18 months before the aircraft are delivered to the customers.”

Chazelle estimates that around one-third of Airbus corporate jet deliveries are to the Middle East, which he says helps the company to offset any potential slowdown in other parts of the world.

“We have more growth in China than the Middle East, but the Middle East is strong and sta-ble and the orders keep on com-ing,” he says. “That is why we have a big presence both [in the Middle East] and in China. We don’t want to be like some of our competitors, who have all their eggs in one basket.”

ExecuJet and NasJet are gear-ing up to open their fixed-

base operation at King Khalid International airport in Riyadh in the first quarter of 2013.

The venture marks the first foray into the Saudi Arabian mar-ket for ExecuJet and the launch of Saudi charter operator NasJet’s FBO ambitions.

“We plan to expand our part-nership to other airports in the

Kingdom,” says Hardy Sohanpal, head of marketing at NasJet. “First we will concentrate on getting the Riyadh FBO up and running. Then we [will] explore other op-portunities,” he adds.

The partners expect to handle around 4,000 business aircraft in their first year of operation, up to 2,000 of which will come from existing ExecuJet and NasJet traf-fic. Neither is fazed by the stiff

competition from other aircraft and passenger handlers at Riyadh airport – Saudia Private Aviation, Arabasco and Jet Aviation.

“There is plenty of business coming into Riyadh from within the region and internationally,” Sohanpal says. He attributes this in part to the trillion dollars of invesment being pumped into the city to fund a host of ambi-tious projects.

Embraer’s Lineage 1000 has clinched Russian validation,

paving the way for super-large business jet customers to register and operate Embraer’s top-of-the range type in the country.

“Embraer has already received strong market acceptance in Rus-sia, with more than 40 Legacy 600s and 650s owned by Russian customers now flying in the re-gion today,” the Brazilian air-framer says.

According to Flightglobal’s As-cend Online database, the Lineage 1000 fleet totals 13 worldwide.

Embraer is confident that the line-leading aircraft will be well received in Russia – where the

population of very high net-worth individuals retains a healthy appetite for large-cabin business jets.

“The Lineage 1000 provides a balance of performance, intelli-gent luxury and high reliability,” says Embraer.

“Its range – 8,334km [4,490nm] with four passengers – assures the aircraft’s capability to fly non-stop from Moscow to New York,” it adds.

ExecuJet and NasJet fixed on RiyadhAIRPORTS KATE SARSFIELD DUBAI

With four passengers, the aircraft’s range exceeds 8,300km

Lineage 1000 on the radar for Russia’s rich eliteCERTIFICATION KATE SARSFIELD LONDON

CONVERSION SIVA GOVINDASAMY SINGAPORE

Middle Eastern luxury role mooted for SIA A340-500sAirframer targets potential clients in region ahead of first aircraft’s return in late 2013

AIRLINERS

‘Nearly all’ 747 VIP customers will move to -8

Em

bra

er

BUSINESS AVIATION


Help on the ground to ease crowding in Europe’s skiesBUSINESS P20

Bell Helicopter has petitioned the US Federal Aviation Ad-

ministration to reconsider the agency’s decision to deny an ex-emption from a gross weight limit for the Bell 429.

The appeal comes after the com-pany’s warning that the market for the Bell 429 could be substantially reduced in the USA if the FAA up-holds its decision in August to re-strict the medium-twin to a 3,175kg (7,000lb) weight limit under Part 27 safety standards.

The FAA will open a 120-day consultation period on 18 Decem-ber, allowing the public and Bell’s competitors to submit views and information about the petition.

Bell argued when it applied for the 227kg exemption that the standard forces operators to fly the Bell 429 with fewer passen-gers or less safety equipment.

But Bell’s competitors, includ-ing AgustaWestland, opposed Bell’s exemption, saying it would create an unfair advantage. The FAA later denied the request.

That decision put US regula-tors at odds with several airwor-thiness authorities that have al-ready approved the change for the Bell 429. Transport Canada ap-proved the original exemption re-quest submitted by Bell Helicop-ter, which manufactures the Bell 429 near Montreal.

Bell has already delivered ex-amples of the increased gross weight Bell 429 under the Trans-port Canada exemption. But the FAA’s denial means Bell cannot deliver aircraft that do no meet the Part 27 weight limit to customers in the US market, which must continue to operate the lighter-weight version of the aircraft.

Gulfstream has released new drawings of a supersonic

business jet design in patent ap-plication forms, revealing fea-tures such as a telescoping nose, highly sloped fuselage and varia-ble-geometry wings.

The drawings, from patent fil-ings in April and August, emerge less than two months after a Gulf-stream executive said the compa-ny was “very close” to overcom-ing the noise problem preventing commercial supersonic aircraft from flying over populated areas.

They also reveal a configura-tion significantly evolved from Gulfstream drawings released in 2007 and 2009 for a concept air-craft identified in trademark ap-plications as the Whisper. In July, Gulfstream resubmitted an appli-cation for the Whisper trademark, describing its intended use for a supersonic aircraft featuring quiet-boom technology.

Gulfstream has also been as-

signed an experimental aircraft designation by the US Air Force for an undisclosed supersonic aircraft called the X-54.

Previous versions of Gulf-stream’s supersonic aircraft con-cept featured a long, slender nose, a conventional fuselage cross-sec-tion that peaks just aft of the cock-pit and fixed-geometry wings.

In the latest drawings, the tele-scoping nose – a legacy of the company’s Quiet Spike experi-ments – appears to be thicker and is divided into six distinct sec-tions at full extension.

A side-view drawing reveals a highly sloped fuselage that peaks slightly aft of the leading edge of a highly swept wing. The top-view drawing shows the mid-fu-selage-mounted wing also sweeps forward by as much as 30˚. A cabin section is shown with five oval windows, one fewer than the 13.7m (45.1ft) interior cabin length of the Gulfstream G450. Canadian operator CHC Heli-

copter has seen its safety record take a minor knock as a result of the 22 October ditching of one of its Eurocopter EC225s in the North Sea, but maintains its overall per-formance is still industry-leading.

Speaking on a fiscal year second-quarter conference call in Decem-ber, chief executive and president William Amelio said the company’s rolling five-year safety average is now 0.36 per 100,000 flight hours, up from 0.23 in the previous three quarters. But this is still well below the average for the offshore transport sector of 1.8 per 100,000h.

Following the incident, UK and

Norwegian civil aviation regulators banned the type from overwater flights. Since then Vancouver-based CHC has been working with Eurocopter to bring its EC225 fleet back into service. The airframer has given a February deadline to im-plement a solution, but Amelio ad-mits this target could be missed.

“We’re hopeful that we’ll have a solution and we’ll be able to get the majority of the aircraft back up and flying again, but as you can imagine this is a highly technical problem and there is some con-cern that it could slip a bit,” he says. “We are hopeful that it will happen in February.”

Extended

Retracted

SOURCE: Flightglobal

GULFSTREAM SUPERSONIC AIRCRAFT

INNOVATION STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

Gulfstream rejigs supersonic designLatest Whisper patent drawings reveal major changes as manufacturer seeks solution to sonic boom problem

SAFETY DOMINIC PERRY LONDON

EC225 ditch spoils CHC record

REGULATION STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

Bell appeals to FAA over weight exception for 429

Tim

Bic

heno-B

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n

Download the Business Aviation Simulator Census now at www.flightglobal.com/BizAvSimCensus

BUSINESS


Good week

Bad week

Aircraft finance is among the sectors covered by our premium news and data service Flightglobal Pro: flightglobal.com/pro

Good week

Bad week

MILAN City-owned air-

port operator SEA has

been hit with a €360

million-plus-interest bill

for breaching European

state aid rules, after

Brussels determined aid

granted between 2002

and 2010 to its ground

handling subsidiary gave

it an unfair advantage

over unsubsidised rivals.

Linate and Malpensa

airports operator SEA

– 71% owned by the city

of Milan and other public

shareholders – has been

ordered to pay the sum,

with interest, back to the

Italian government.

INDIA Aerospace could

replace information

technology as India’s

sunshine sector over the

next five years on the

back of a jobs and in-

vestment boom as the

country pushes to

modernise its military

aviation capabilities.

But, warns Sanjay Kumar,

managing director of

French high-technology

engineering consultancy

Altran’s India operation,

a critical shortage of

qualified people and

other key capabilities

could still leave aero-

space in the shade.

AIR TRAFFIC DAN THISDELL LONDON

Can we slot you in?Crowding in Europe’s busy skies may yet be eased – thanks to some help on the ground

The European Union’s bid to increase the capacity of its air-

ways by replacing its patchwork of national air traffic management districts with a so-called “single European sky” of much larger functional airspace blocks may have hit the buffers – but Brussels can at least welcome progress to-wards a more down-to-earth re-form which, it believes, could ac-commodate 24 million more passengers a year by 2025.

As the 4 December deadline for EU member states to legislate for a shift to functional airspace blocks came and went with little sign of progress, the European Parliament voted to support a Commission proposal to create a free and transparent market in secondary slot trading in all EU countries. MEPs stopped short of backing a further proposal to tighten up the “use it or lose it” rules, but this Brussels plan to leverage market power to make more slots available for realloca-tion after each summer and win-ter flight schedule could, pending acceptance by member states, be a reality by the end of 2015.

The idea is to specifically allow transparent secondary trading of slots between airlines. Current regulations dating to 1993 neither provide for secondary trading nor specifically ban it, but in practice the UK is the only EU country with a secondary market, al-though it scores low on the trans-parency scale. The Commission also wants airlines to use 10-day slot series 85% of the time or see the slots revert to the allocation pool at the end of the season.

The European Parliament, however, is backing the current use-it-or-lose-it rule’s 80% and five-day standards. But it did vote to strengthen proposals on the in-dependence of slot co-ordinators. In any case, there will be no change to the current rules for al-locating, at no charge, unused slots at the end of each season.

The 80%/five-day versus 85%/ 10-day question could be signifi-

Let’s make a deal

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cant, and it is unclear whether the higher standard could still make its way into the final package. Brussels says the 80/five “grand-father clause” leaves capacity un-used while five major hubs – Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, London Heathrow, London Gatwick and Milan Linate – are at saturation point. By 2030, it adds, the prob-lem will affect 19 key European airports, including Paris Charles de Gaulle, Warsaw, Athens, Vi-enna and Barcelona, with delays hitting half of all flights.

NO WASTE OF SPACEWhat is clear, though, is that a transparent secondary trading re-gime should help Europe’s air-ports work far closer to capacity. James Cole, director of Airport Co-ordination, which manages the slot pool for UK airports as well as Dubai International, says London Heathrow sees between six and 12 trades a year, but be-lieves a more transparent system would lubricate the market.

The plan calls for publication of yearly transaction summaries rather than data on each trade, but Cole believes the new system would help airlines decide whether they should trade or fly.

Cole adds that the initial mar-ket response to the establishment of a formally sanctioned and transparent trading regime may be more slot leasing by carriers that may not use them but don’t want to give them up. At Heath-

row, the slots market is a mix of sales and leasing, but in the US, Cole notes, the buy-sell market “quickly degenerated” into a mostly leasing market.

Aviation consultant and former British Airways executive John Strickland says Heathrow trading has certainly helped carriers es-tablish new slots for US services, helping to set a balance between allowing new entrants and giving airlines the certainty of long-term, stable scheduled operations.

However, he adds, keeping the current 80% use-it-or-lose-it rule may be wise, because a higher standard could lead airlines to operate uneconomic services simply to hang on to positions.

One interesting outcome of a transparent trading system, says Cole, could be airlines starting to carry a value for these scarce as-sets on their balance sheets. Valu-ing Heathrow slots is difficult today partly because the market is opaque and partly because there are so few trades, he says.

But these scarce assets seem to be worth big money. Although the figure was quoted at the abso-lute height of the pre-crisis mar-ket and must have been for peak-time positions, Cole notes that the advent of the US-Europe open skies agreement led one US air-line to value four pairs of Paris slots at $209 million.

LAX has a big plan for handling more traffic – and A380s:flightglobal.com/lax

BUSINESS


What will happen in 2013? Our experts give their forecastsSPECIAL REPORT P22

VIGNERON OUT AS FRANCE, DASSAULT LOSE FAITHMANAGEMENT Thales boss Luc Vigneron has resigned, having

“acknowledged the absence of support” of the group’s two main

shareholders, the French state and Dassault Aviation, which hold

27% and 26%, respectively. His replacement is Jean-Bernard Lévy, a

French industry veteran and civil servant. The sudden departure of

Vigneron, who was appointed chief executive in May 2009 and was

due to serve until May 2014, surprised analysts, who have been

watching him drive an apparently successful turnaround at the

electronic systems maker. Thales lost €92 million ($121 million)

before interest and taxes in 2010, but saw a profit of €749 million in

2011. The 2010 performance included a charge of €700 million

against supply contracts with the Airbus Military A400M, the Turkish

Meltern maritime patrol aircraft and a Danish ticketing project.

UTC CONTINUES GOODRICH SELL-OFFSRESTRUCTURING Pratt & Whitney, Sikorsky and Hamilton

Sundstrand parent United Technologies has sold three of the non-

aerospace businesses of its Hamilton Sundstrand division to BC

Partners and The Carlyle Group for $3.46 billion. The sale was part

of an ongoing refocusing of the corporation – which also owns

Carrier air conditioning and Otis lifts – around its aerospace and

building systems businesses. The proceeds from the sale will be

used to repay a portion of the debt incurred to finance the $18.4

billion acquisition of Goodrich, which closed earlier in 2012.

KOREA AEROSPACE SHARE SALE BACK ON HOLDPRIVATISATION Korean Air has dropped out of the bidding for a

stake in Korea Aerospace Industries, leaving the aircraft manufac-

turer’s share sale on hold for a second time, because Korean law

requires at least two bidders. With only Hyundai Heavy Industries

now interested, the attempt by six shareholders including a state

holding company to offload a combined 41.75% stake and give KAI a

dominant owner to streamline decision-making is on hold.

ST ENGINEERING BOLSTERS CABIN CAPABILITY ACQUISITION ST Engineering’s VT Aerospace subsidiary is to ex-

pand its maintenance and cabin refurbishment capability with the

S$16 million ($13.1 million) acquisition of US cabin reconfiguration

specialist Volant Aerospace. Volant, formerly known as International

Aero Interiors, will operate as a wholly-owned subsidiary of VT.

MOOG DEAL MAKES MORE SPACEELECTRONICS Control systems maker Moog has bought space-

flight electronics and aerospace software designer Broad Reach

Engineering of Golden, Colorado, for $43 million plus another $5

million linked to financial targets.

BRUSSELS CLEARS QATAR FOR HEATHROW MOVECOMPETITION The European Commission has cleared Qatar

Holding to join Ferrovial, Canadian fund manager Caisse de dépôt et

placement du Québec and the Singapore government’s Baker Street

Investments as a shareholder in Heathrow Airport Holdings.

AMETEK BUYS INTO MIAMI DEVICE REPAIRMAINTENANCE Electronic instruments and electromechanical

devices maker Ametek has acquired the Miami-based, Federal

Aviation Administration-certified aviation repair operations of Aero

Components International and Avtech Avionics and Instruments,

both privately owned.

BUSINESS BRIEFSPEOPLE MOVESThe latest news on the key industry appointments

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“I hope you share my optimism and can feel the recovery that’s started”

Trappier: top Falconer

Larson: stars in her eyes

predecessor Tom Enders as chairman of the charitable Airbus Corporate Foundation. Boeing veteran Michael Kurth now heads unmanned airborne systems in St Louis; he is being replaced as director of Boeing Defence UK by David Pitchforth, who moves from Boeing’s UK rotorcraft support unit. Karim Hijazi, a helicopter and fixed-wing pilot and former Piaggio salesman, has joined Boutsen Aviation as Dubai sales representative. Astrophysicist Michelle Larson now heads Chicago’s Adler Planetarium and its research and educational outreach programmes.

At Falcon business jet and Rafale fighters maker Dassault Aviation, Eric Trappier will succeed longstanding chairman and chief executive Charles Edelstenne, who retires on 8 January. Trappier, a telecoms engineer by training who joined the Dassault design office in 1984 and is currently executive VP international, will be supported by chief operating officer Loïk Segalen, who was previously director general of economic and social affairs. Edelstenne, who reaches the statutory retirement age of 65 on 9 January, will remain a director. Airbus boss Fabrice Brégier has followed

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Chief executive of American Airlines parent AMR

TOM HORTON hails a pilots’ contract deal in a

letter to employees that signals the beginning of

the end of Chapter 11 bankruptcy – and a

possible merger with US Airways

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flightglobal.com

FORECASTSSPECIAL REPORT


Will 2013 bring the hotly anticipated first flights of new civil airliners? Where might the big aircraft orders come from? Can we expect an F-35 programme rethink? Who will be acquired, and by whom? And will tourists make it to space? Anybody who actually knows what’s going to happen this year should probably be busy turning foresight into big bucks rather than telling everybody, but with new-year spirits running high and hope springing eternal, we have put the critical questions to our resident experts. No warranty, express or implied...

THE BIG QUESTIONS

QUESTIONS24 Will the Airbus A350 fly this year? 25 Who will launch an all-new 90-seat turboprop? 25 Can we expect China to flex its military-air muscles at the

Paris air show? 25 What will happen to the price of oil? 26 Will this be the year somebody finally launches a

supersonic business jet? 26 Will the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747-8 get any new

customers in 2013? 27 Have we finally seen the end of the Hawker business jet?

27 What kind of accidents can we expect in 2013? 27 Can we expect a big strategic M&A move from EADS? 28 Will cancellations take a bite out of the Airbus and

Boeing backlogs? 28 Will Virgin Galactic carry passengers to space in 2013? 29 Is Boeing going to launch the greatly anticipated 777X? 29 Will London Heathrow get the nod for a third runway? 30 Will Congress finally axe the Lockheed Martin F-35? 30 Is zero airline accidents within our grasp? 31 Will US airlines unleash a wave of regional jet orders? 31 Will Airbus Military make A400M deliveries in 2013?

flightglobal.com 8-14 January 2013 | Flight International | 23


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MAKING THE HEADLINES IN 2013...

Airbus’s highlight of 2013 ought to be its first maiden flight of an all-new aircraft in eight years, when the A350-900 begins its critical airborne test regime. And, indeed, the first flight-test prototype was rolled out of the final assembly line in December, and shifted to a new station for hydraulic testing before its Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines are installed.

But while the A350’s unveiling as something closely resembling a complete aircraft will reassure customers to a certain extent, Airbus has yet to convince that it can keep the first-flight schedule on course. When the process of auto-

mating drilling for the A350’s wings ran into problems, Airbus slipped the entry-into-service date for the twinjet into the second half of 2014. That delay might not push back the schedule for the first flight, although Airbus has not ventured a more precise timeframe than “mid-2013”.

Airbus will, however, be fully aware of the publicity potential of having the aircraft fly into the Paris air show – very much its home game – and not least because this year’s event, in June, is the landmark 50th. But the airframer has resisted rushing the A350, insisting that it will clear each development phase only

when it passes a maturity threshold, to avoid the embarrassing backtracking and delays that burdened A380 production.

History tells us that even if A350 progression is smooth enough for the aircraft to put in a star appearance at Paris, the margin to maintain a delivery schedule for the second half of 2014 will be tight. Boeing conducted the first flight of its 787 in December 2009 and delivered the first aircraft, to All Nippon Airways, in September 2011 – 21 months later. Airbus took two and a half years to deliver the initial A380 to Singapore Airlines after it first flew in April 2005.

WILL THE A350 FLY THIS YEAR?

Airbus



The Shenyang J-15 fighter would be the star of the show, but, in a nutshell, there is no way it will be at Paris. There are only a few flying ex-amples for testing aboard the aircraft carrier Liaoning, and it’s all but inconceivable that China would be marketing this machine to any-body else – how many countries have carriers that can operate a big jet like this?

However, it is not beyond imagination that the far less ambitious Chengdu/Pakistan Aeronautical Complex JF-17 will make its Paris debut. After appearing at Farnborough in 2010, it missed Paris in 2011 and, despite years of sales talks with several countries, it has yet to secure any international customers other than Pakistan.

More intriguingly, at the recent Zhuhai air show a model was on display labelled “Ad-vanced Fighter Concept”, which bore a striking

resemblance to the aircraft Chinese bloggers commonly refer to as the Shenyang J-31. One flying prototype is thought to exist, and AVIC has said the J-31 is being proposed for export, so it will be interesting to see if it is promoted at Paris – just possibly, AVIC may be looking for foreign partners to help with development.

The concept on display at Zhuhai featured low observable characteristics, such as cant-ed tails and internal weapons bays and two engines with no thrust vectoring. There also appears to be no accommodation for a lift fan, the salient feature of the Lockheed Martin F-35B that had a profound influence on the de-sign of both the conventional take-off and land-ing F-35A and aircraft carrier-capable F-35C. Such a fighter might be hawked as an alterna-tive to the Sukhoi T-50, although China has yet to produce a reliable fighter engine.

The chances are, nobody will – but pressure

from airline customers might conjure up a

2013 launch of a product that regional aircraft

makers agree will eventually be a necessity.

Once, Bombardier spoke openly of introduc-

ing a 90-seat stretch of the Q400 by 2014.

That date slipped to 2015, and the variant is

now not expected until the end of the decade.

It is not surprising the Q400X is not a top pri-

ority for Bombardier. With two different CSeries

models, three Learjet models, and two Global

business jet models in development, Bombar-

dier’s reluctance to add a product to a market

sector that averages about 100 total deliver-

ies a year may be understandable.

As a joint venture of Alenia Aermacchi and

EADS, ATR appears to face similar resource

constraints in launching a 90-seater. Unlike

Bombardier, ATR does not appear to have the

option of stretching the ATR 72, a model that

first appeared in the late 1980s. The 90-seat

ATR aircraft may also require a new, higher-

speed wing, along with an extended fuselage.

Despite hopeful statements by ATR officials

in 2011, EADS executives made it clear engi-

neering resources to support an “ATR 92”

would not be available soon and there would

be no programme launch in 2012. However, at

EADS’ annual media day in March, it will be

interesting to see if the non-Italian half of the

ATR joint venture softens its stance.

Whatever the availability of engineering and

financial resources, for once the airframers

cannot complain about a lack of engines. The

CSeries is still waiting for engine certification

of the Pratt & Whitney PW1524G turbofan, but

Pratt & Whitney Canada has already launched

development of a next-generation turboprop

engine, in anticipation of market interest in a

90-seater. General Electric is moving even

faster with the CPX38, which is derived from

the GE38 powering the Sikorsky CH-53K.

As the target market for regional jets shifts

from 50 seats to between 70 and 90, demand

is growing for a larger turboprop.

CAN WE EXPECT CHINA TO FLEX ITS MILITARY-AIR MUSCLES AT THE PARIS AIR SHOW?

WHO WILL LAUNCH AN ALL-NEW 90-SEAT TURBOPROP?

Ouch. Between genuine supply-demand tension

and war drums in the Middle East and Iran,

there is no prospect of a respite. Bank of Ameri-

ca Merrill Lynch predicts a “stable but high”

$110 per barrel as the 2013 average price of

Brent Crude, whose level is tracked carefully by

jet kerosene. At $110/barrel, Brent would main-

tain the 2012 average that caused such pain

for airlines. BAML commodity strategist Sabine

Schels reckons Brent will not break $140/bar-

rel – within sight of its all-time high in the run-up

to the financial crisis in the summer of 2008 –

but sees it touching $120/barrel by end-June,

as continuing uncertainty over US government

fiscal policy leaves markets anxious.

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This year could see the A380 crack the US market,

probably with an order from Delta or United, which

will require the aircraft to connect hubs in the USA

to key hubs in Europe and North Asia.

Another A380 order is likely to come from China,

probably from China Eastern Airlines or Air China.

Growth rates mean at least one of these will join

China Southern Airlines in operating the aircraft.

Cathay Pacific is expected to decide this year on

an order for A380s or 747-8Is to replace the 747-

400s used on its dense routes. If the order goes to

Airbus, it will be another nail in the 747-8I’s coffin.

Carriers favour the 777-300ER as a replace-

ment for the 747-400, and if Boeing launches the

777X this year, airlines that have not ordered the

777 may skip to the next model without consider-

ing the 747-8I. The 747-8I’s best prospects will be

among the customers that have already ordered it

– Lufthansa, Arik Air, Korean Air and Air China.

WILL THE A380 AND 747-8 ACQUIRE ANY NEW CUSTOMERS IN 2013?

Not a chance. A clutch of ambitious players – Aerion, Dassault, General Dynamics, Gulfstream, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, NASA and others – have been working behind the scenes developing technologies that could eventually lead to a game-changing SSBJ as a successor to Concorde. However, no programme has moved much beyond the paper phase, so don’t expect a viable SSBJ to be launched until well into the next decade.

Demand is not the problem. There is no shortage of super-rich individuals who want to fly point to point in half the time a subsonic aircraft takes. An SSBJ price tag of $80 million to $100 million is at

least $20 million more than an ultra-long-range G650, but that is unlikely to put off determined buyers. In any case, much of the demand is likely to come from fleet buyers such as fractional ownership and block charter companies, which should lower the cost of ownership and access.

But the market is limited, so the stakes are high – and first-mover advantage might be vital. “This is a high-value, niche sector,” says aviation analyst Brian Foley. “Only a small portion of the market will be able to afford such an aircraft, so whoever is first to market will grab all the sales.”

Emissions and maintenance on high-performance engines remain challenges

to any SSBJ developer, but the biggest obstacle is the sonic boom. A 40-year-old US Federal Aviation Administration ban on supersonic flights over the continental USA was one reason Concorde never took off properly as a business proposition, and other countries have since followed suit.

Gulfstream says it will continue work on “mitigating” sonic boom, but concedes there is no business case for building an SSBJ without legislation enabling super-sonic flight over land. “If a rational rule for environmentally acceptable supersonic flight over land could be put in place, a supersonic airplane could exist in the next 20 years or so,” says Gulfstream.

WILL THIS BE THE YEAR SOMEBODY FINALLY LAUNCHES A SUPERSONIC BUSINESS JET?

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In a word, yes. Parent company Hawker Beechcraft

hopes to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy pro-

tection this year with a new identity as simply

Beechcraft and a vastly reduced product line con-

sisting solely of propeller-driven aircraft, including

the ubiquitous King Air series. With its multi-mis-

sion capabilities and global market appeal, this

twin-engined turboprop has been the lynchpin of

HBC’s product line throughout its history.

In contrast, there is a reason why sales of

Hawker business jets nosedived once the bubble

burst in 2008: these ageing and mission-limited

entry-level, light and midsize twin jets are being

outgunned in the market, so it is no surprise that

bankrupt HBC suspended production and put the

product line up for sale.

Analyst Brian Foley reckons that likely buyers

could emerge from China – which is seeking to

develop its aerospace industry – or from the oil-

rich countries of the Middle East, where “sover-

eign funds are looking to diversify their industries

beyond oil”. But even those options look worse

than unlikely.

As Teal Group aviation analyst Richard Aboula-

fia observes: “After decades of rumours, we have

seen exactly zero evidence that either China or a

Middle East state would be willing to buy and run

a legacy jet maker.” Hawker’s jet business is, of

course, available but Aboulafia asks: “What

would the acquirer gain? There would be signifi-

cant up-front cost and risk, it would be very diffi-

cult for regulatory reasons to move the factories

back home, and the prospects for big material

rewards would be quite limited.”

For established business aircraft manufactur-

ers, Hawker’s appeal is also just about zero. Das-

sault’s focus is on high-end business jets from

super-midsize upwards, while Bombardier has a

full range of business jets from the light-cabin

Learjet 70 upwards and has expressed no inter-

est in adding a product at the bottom of its range.

Gulfstream’s product line is focused on the top

half of the sector – from the midsize G150 to the

ultra-long-range G650. Embraer and Cessna al-

ready compete in the same marketplace as the

Hawker family and are investing heavily in new

products. Says Foley: “There is simply no room

for these orphaned aircraft.”

Runway excursions, particularly over-

runs, remain the most common of all

accidents, and despite more than five

years of attempts by organisations

such as the Flight Safety Foundation to

increase awareness of the risk, they will

still happen in 2013. The evidence is

that almost all runway excursions are

easily avoidable, because they involve

a decision to land from an unstabilised

approach, or to land on a contaminated

pavement without making sufficient

allowance for reduced braking action.

As safety overall continues to improve,

runway excursions still provide evidence

of a careless approach to landing, the

pilot’s assumption appearing to be

that providing the aircraft survives the

touchdown, the rest of the landing run

will be fine.

However, during 2013 there will be

few or even zero fatal accidents involving

globally known airlines operating the

latest generation of big jets (including

single-aisles). Any accidents that do

happen will almost exclusively involve

carriers familiar only in their region,

particularly in states with a less mature

economy or less stable government.

The difference? Some national aviation

authorities require that airlines exercise

a policy for the active management of

risk – and some do not.

No. The Airbus parent did, of course, light

up 2012 by trying to make the biggest

strategic move of all time by merging with

BAE Systems, but that move, knocked

back by politics, was atypical. Small acqui-

sitions will carry on where prudent, but

EADS has enough on its plate just looking

after itself during 2013: a new shareholder

deal between France, Germany and Spain

needs implementing, a new board needs

electing and the A350 needs assembling

and flying.

Meanwhile, cash reserves – which stood

at a whopping €11 billion-plus a year ago

– have been whittled down by operating

needs, and the new shareholder deal calls

for the company to dip further into the pile

to buy out stakeholders – notably France’s

Lagardère.

Pundits will continue to call for

European aerospace industry consolida-

tion, especially in France, but expect EADS

to revert to type and steer shy of trans-

formative deals.

HAVE WE FINALLY SEEN THE END OF THE HAWKER BUSINESS JET BRAND?

CAN WE EXPECT A BIG STRATEGIC M&A MOVE FROM EADS?

WHAT KIND OF ACCIDENTS CAN WE EXPECT IN 2013?H

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Another downturn in the big economies could be

a cue for airlines to do what they did not do in

2008/9 and shed obligations to spend large

sums of money, but the industry is remarkably re-

silient and airlines need more aircraft. IATA says

passenger traffic increased by a healthy 5.3% in

2012, and should add a further 4.5% in 2013.

Even for airlines facing a cash crisis, cancella-

tions will be a last-ditch solution. Delivery slots

can be delayed, and many lessors will do sale-

and-leaseback deals where there is a real need

for new aircraft. Where there are cancellations,

any available slots will be taken up by other carri-

ers, because demand is genuinely solid.

Asian carriers, particularly low-cost ones, will

take the lion’s share of new aircraft deliveries.

The likes of AirAsia and Lion Air have indicated

that their growth trajectories will accelerate over

the coming year; they will need more aircraft.

Another factor that will push airlines to find

the cash to stick to fleet-renewal plans is the

high fuel price. While prices eased towards the

end of 2012, they remain historically high, so re-

placing older types such as the Boeing 737 Clas-

sic and MD-80 series, is a survival imperative.

The trend of some carriers to replace their old-

est A320s and 737NGs before they hit heavy

maintenance checks will also ensure new aircraft

continue to roll off the line.

Lessors, which now account for a larger part

of the market for new aircraft, are also expected

to retain their orders as pressure placed on

them by the global financial crisis has eased.

Finance has become easier now, especially as

Asian banks have taken a bigger role in a market

once dominated by European banks. So, expect

lessors to place large orders to shore up delivery

positions for their clients, particularly if types

such as the 777X or 787-10X launch soon.

MAJOR ECONOMIES LOOK WOBBLY. WILL CANCELLATIONS TAKE A BITE OUT OF THE AIRBUS AND BOEING BACKLOGS?

Probably not. Virgin Galactic has been nothing if not cautious, evidenced by many years of unpowered glide testing and ground-based engine runs, and its SpaceShipTwo is still very much in development. At the moment there is only one of the six-passenger craft (nick-named VSS Eve, after chief investor Richard Branson’s mother) and the vehicle is hangared for integration with its hybrid-fuelled rocket motor. Despite the company’s assur-ances that it will move quickly once the motor is installed, Virgin Galactic has blown through several self-imposed deadlines before.

Safety is the company’s priority, of course. Branson and his family are slated to be on the first commercial flight, with other executives trailing. Because Virgin Galactic is the first and most prominent suborbital tourism com-pany, a disaster could cause the FAA to im-pose heavy safety requirements or scare away paying passengers.

A second SpaceShipTwo is under construc-tion, but is unlikely to join the fleet in 2013. It will have to undergo its own flight test regime.

Although Virgin Galactic may not fly human passengers, a robotic one might make it into space. At the 2012 Farnborough Air Show, the company announced the LauncherOne, a small liquid-fuelled satellite launcher.

WILL VIRGIN GALACTIC CARRY PASSENGERS TO SPACE IN 2013?

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Not exactly. At least one aspect of Boeing’s strategy to replace the 17-year-old 777 family should become clear in 2013, but it will reveal little about the full scope and timing of the re-engining and re-winging programme. For those details, Boeing watchers may have the entire year to wait, maybe longer. Since General Electric was selected to power the 777-200LR and 777-300ER in 1999, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce have been shut out of one of the highest-selling widebody aircraft programmes of all time.

But GE’s grip on the 777 may change when Boeing decides whether to offer customers a choice of engines for the 777-8X and 777-9X. In November, a GKN Aerospace executive – and Rolls-Royce partner – told the market he understands

Boeing will decide the engine strategy for the 777X in early 2013.

Waiting in the wings are General Electric with the GE9X; Pratt & Whitney with an all-new core based on the fan drive gear system; and Rolls-Royce with the RB3025. Boeing could reselect the GE9X as the exclusive engine for the 777X or to offer customers a choice.

If Boeing makes a choice in early 2013, it will be the first in a long series of deci-sions that will define its next major new product. But the airframer appears to be in no rush to bring the successor to the 777-200LR and 777-300ER to market.

This was not always the plan. Until Jim Albaugh abruptly stepped down in June, Boeing had made it clear that a 777X launch decision would be complete by the

end of 2012. His successor, Ray Conner, almost immediately took the year-end launch goal off the table. By November, Boeing executives were adding the phrase “early in the next decade” to the forecast for the 777X’s entry into service.

The timing of Boeing’s authority to offer decision is significant. A less ambitious programme, such as the 737 Max – which includes a re-engining, new winglets and various updates – is due to enter service in 2017, about six years after Boeing’s board approved the programme.

Boeing is also considering an all-composite airfoil, the length of which may force investments in larger autoclaves and a new logistics network. Other tech-nologies tested on its ecoDemonstrator could be considered for the 777X family.

IS BOEING GOING TO LAUNCH THE GREATLY ANTICIPATED 777X?

WILL LONDON HEATHROW FINALLY GET THE NOD FOR A THIRD RUNWAY?Not a chance. This saga has lasted a genera-

tion, and while broad agreement is emerging

that “something must be done”, it will not hap-

pen in 2013. A committee has been formed to

study the matter, but the UK’s “all options are

on the table” Airports Commission will not pro-

duce a report until summer 2015 – after the

next general election. Meanwhile, the issue is a

possible government-breaker and will be avoid-

ed by the Conservatives and Lib-Dems.

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All nine partners on the Pentagon’s Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme will stick with the troubled fifth-generation fighter. Costs climb and technological challenges re-main, but the programme is “too big to fail”.

The most important customer is the US Air Force, which intends to buy 1,763 jets. The US Marine Corps and US Navy are slated to buy 680 aircraft. The US Department of Defense insists it will buy all the 2,443 jets planned, even if some of those purchases are delayed.

Given that the DoD is the most important

ally for each of those nine partners, interopera-bility is key. If the F-35 is the centrepiece of US tactical air forces, the partners need to be able to interoperate with them.

Also, as threats grow, the F-35’s stealth be-comes more important. If these nations want to take part in coalition warfare in any mean-ingful capacity, the F-35 is needed.

Given the cost of modern combat aircraft, the F-35 will remain in service for decades.

Many of the partners have invested large sums of money in the F-35 programme. If they

leave, those funds are forfeited, as are any in-dustrial benefits that each nation has accrued.

The countries that are tottering at the mo-ment, Canada and Australia, are still likely to proceed with their purchases. Canada’s govern-ment has invested too much political capital to back down and has adopted a muscular foreign policy. Australia is facing growing threats in the Pacific, and the Boeing F/A-18E/F will only be able to hold the threat at bay in the short term. In the long term, Australia has little choice but to buy the F-35. There are no alternatives.

LATE AND OVER BUDGET: WILL CONGRESS FINALLY AXE THE LOCKHEED MARTIN F-35?

AIRLINE SAFETY EASILY BROKE ALL RECORDS IN 2012 – SURELY ZERO ACCIDENTS IS WITHIN OUR GRASP? Sadly not. Further improvement in safety is dis-

tinctly possible, but we remain at risk of the un-

foreseeable. Examples include the US Airways

Hudson River ditching and the British Airways

Boeing 777 landing short of the runway at Hea-

throw in January 2008. Such incidents are rare,

but could happen in any year, including 2013.

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Yes. Three major airlines – Delta, United and

American – have reached agreements with their

respective pilots’ unions allowing them to add

larger 70- and 76-seat regional jets to replace

ageing 50-seaters that have high fuel costs. This

means US airlines will have a need for about

200 new, large regional aircraft orders when

2013 begins. While a few notable regional air-

craft orders did surface in 2012, United and

American firmed up their agreements only weeks

before the year-end. That means 2013 is shap-

ing up to be a big year for regional jet orders.

Delta was the first mainline carrier in the USA

to secure a labour agreement allowing it to move

toward the larger jets. To satisfy the new scope

clause, the airline struck a deal with Bombardier

in December to purchase 40 CRJ900 regional

jets and 30 options. These orders will allow the

airline to replace some 218 50-seater regional

jets with 70 76-seat jets.

Also in December, regional airline SkyWest

firmed up a letter of intent with Mitsubishi Re-

gional Jet for 100 MRJ90s – which are converti-

ble to the smaller MRJ70 – to be delivered be-

tween 2017 and 2020. While the scale of the

order is significant, the regional airline has indi-

cated that new scope clauses at the major air-

lines will create new opportunities for flying in

the near term before the first MRJ delivery. In the

airline’s third-quarter earnings call, SkyWest

president Bradford Rich told investors that the

airline was in “advanced and aggressive” discus-

sions with Bombardier and Embraer, which both

manufacture larger jets already in service.

In 2013, United and American will be the cen-

tre of focus for refleeting strategies. Embraer

said on 12 December that it expected American

parent AMR to submit a request for proposals.

WILL US AIRLINES UNLEASH A WAVE OF REGIONAL JET ORDERS IN 2013?

WILL AIRBUS MILITARY MAKE A400M DELIVERIES IN 2013, AND IF SO, WILL FRESH ORDERS ROLL IN?All being well, 2013 will finally see Airbus Military hand over its first production example of the A400M Atlas to the French air force. Scheduled to be completed before the end of the second quarter, the transfer of aircraft MSN7 will happen just over 10 years after Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Spain, Turkey and the UK approved a combined development and production contract for the A400M.

The handover will take place more than three years behind the original schedule of Oc-tober 2009, but will come only three months behind the revised contractual target agreed between EADS and its customers in April 2011 under a renegotiated deal, which also trimmed its launch orderbook from 180 to 170 aircraft.

Airbus Military has said the first production slots for new export customers will be available in 2016, so the 2013 Paris air show in June will offer an ideal opportunity to court potential buy-ers beyond current customer Malaysia.

The air forces of many nations took a look at the A400M during visits to Latin America, the Middle East and Asia in 2012, but it is uncer-tain how many will splash the cash soon.

A programme of function and reliability test-ing of a production-standard aircraft concluded in December, but a quoted first-quarter target for full civil certification is probably a firmer deadline for Airbus Military than for the Euro-pean Aviation Safety Agency.

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ENVIRONMENT

failing to act quickly enough. “The EU’s deci-sion to include aviation in the EU ETS was taken after ICAO explicitly decided in 2004 not to pursue a global instrument of its own,” Mary Veronica Tovsak Pleterski, director for European and international carbon markets in the Commission’s climate action unit, told Flight International.

It took the EU several years to complete the process of bringing aviation into the ETS, dur-ing which time ICAO appeared to make little or no progress on a global scheme, leading many in Europe to feel that the EU was justi-fied in its actions.

However, for many years little attention was paid to Brussels’ proposal to impose a cap on CO2 emissions for all aircraft arriving or depart-ing from EU airports and to reward low-carbon flights by allowing airlines to buy and sell car-bon allowances in the carbon market, except in the USA, which gave notice early on that it would take legal action against the scheme.

“The legislation has been around for a long time and the aviation industry did not take an


MIKE SCOTT LONDON

With the EU having frozen its controversial ETS scheme for aviation, will the industry keep its side of the bargain by creating a global arrangement to limit growing emissions?

STOP THE CLOCKS

“Finally, we have a chance to get an international regulation on emissions from aviation”CONNIE HEDEGAARD EU commissioner for climate action

Despite increasing pressure from other countries, the EU has always been staunch in its defence of the inclusion of aviation in its emissions trading

scheme (ETS). Then suddenly in November, it announced that it was “stopping the clock” on the scheme as a gesture of goodwill to allow the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to make progress on a global scheme.

So what prompted this change of heart and what does it mean for the sector?

It was as long ago as 2006 that the European Union proposed including aviation in the ETS and the plan was approved in 2008.

The EU moved because greenhouse gas emissions from the aviation sector are grow-ing rapidly at a time when emissions from many other sectors are falling. “The increase in emissions from aviation threatens to wipe out the gains in other industries,” says Tim Baines, a lawyer in the clean energy and cli-mate change team at Norton Rose.

By 2020, international aviation emissions, which currently account for 2-3% of global emissions, are projected to be around 70% higher than in 2005, even if fuel efficiency im-proves by 2% per year, says the European Commission. ICAO forecasts that by 2050 emissions could grow by a further 300-700%.

There is widespread agreement that the in-dustry’s emissions need to be tackled. But aviation was never included in the Kyoto Pro-tocol – instead it was left to ICAO, the UN body that governs aviation, to come up with a global scheme to cut the impact of flying. And even the EU says that the best way to do this is through a worldwide agreement, given the global nature of aviation and the fact that most of the industry’s emissions come from inter-national flights. “The EU has always been very clear: nobody wants an international framework tackling CO2 emissions from avia-tion more than we do,” says Connie Hede-gaard, EU Commissioner for Climate Action.

However, Brussels proposed its own uni-lateral scheme because it thought ICAO was

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ETS

active involvement,” says Baines. “Everyone thought it would die away. It was only when they had to fill in monitoring plans that it rocketed up the agenda.”

As the deadline for the legislation to take effect on 1 January 2012 approached, opposi-tion from airlines and governments became more virulent. The Air Transport Association of America, now known as Airlines for Amer-ica (A4A), supported by IATA and the Na-tional Airlines Council of Canada (NACC), took the EU to the European Court of Justice, claiming that the scheme was a violation of sovereignty and that it would cost airlines millions of dollars.

NEW BATTLEGROUNDSHowever, the ECJ declared that the EU plan was lawful and so the battle moved to other arenas. In the USA, Congress moved to ban US airlines from complying with the scheme – a move that President Obama recently signed in to law, to the disappointment and bemusement of the EU ,given that it had just announced its “stop the clock” measure.

As well as the USA, 23 countries including China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia said that the scheme violated their sovereignty, and at a meeting in Moscow in February, they agreed to co-ordinate any retaliatory action against European airlines. Russia, for exam-ple, said it might withdraw permission for European airlines to fly over Siberia. There was also a suggestion that other countries might follow the USA in creating national laws banning their airlines from complying with the EU measure.

Both China and India missed a deadline to file data related to the scheme, while India was threatening to make the inclusion of aviation in the ETS an issue at climate talks in Doha.

More seriously given Europe’s perilous eco-nomic situation, airlines in China started to delay the purchase of aircraft from Airbus, freezing orders worth some $14 billion. Ger-many’s aerospace policy co-ordinator Peter Hintze highlighted the fears of many in the European aerospace market at Berlin’s ILA air show in September.

“We feel we are being discriminated against,” he said. “We demand a global solu-tion from an industrial policy point of view because we could otherwise put ourselves at a disadvantage in major markets.”

Nonetheless, there seemed little prospect of the EU changing its stance. Bolstered by the ECJ decision, it appeared to be convinced of the strength of its case. Jos Delbeke, the Com-mission’s director general for climate action, for example, said that “the European Commis-sion has a constitutional obligation to enforce the law, and will do so”.

ICAO DECISIONSThen in October, Hedegaard signalled that a forthcoming ICAO Council meeting could herald a breakthrough, telling Reuters: “We think that there is a will on the part of the leadership of ICAO… paving the way for sub-stantial decisions to be taken at next year’s ICAO general assembly.”

And indeed, on 12 November, Hedegaard said that progress at ICAO meant that “final-ly, we have a chance to get an international regulation on emissions from aviation. In order to create a positive atmosphere around these negotiations, I’ve just recommended … that the EU stops the clock when it comes to enforcement of the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS to and from non-European coun-tries until after the ICAO general assembly next autumn.”

China Eastern Airlines ordered 60 Airbus aircraft after the EU froze its ETS scheme

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Russia threatened to ban European airlines

from flying over Sibera


ETS

Breaking stories from the air transport sector are available via our premium news and data service: flightglobal.com/pro

According to Hedegaard, the reason for the EU’s action is that the ICAO Council meeting in November agreed, among other things, that: a high-level policy group will be set up shortly; options for a regulatory market-based mechanism (MBM) will have to be re-duced from three to one; and there is an ex-plicit reference to the global MBM that the world now needs to agree on.

But many observers suggest that there is nothing particularly significant about the ICAO move, and that it does not justify Hede-gaard’s conviction that “a global solution for addressing the fast-growing emissions from international aviation is within reach at the upcoming ICAO assembly in 2013”.

Andreas Arvanitakis, director of advisory services at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon says that “nothing out of the ordinary hap-pened at the most recent ICAO meeting. It was just a hook to hang the announcement on.”

Nor is progress on a global scheme likely to accelerate, he suggests. “ICAO cannot just click its fingers and make this happen – and it is the very countries that complained most about the ETS that have been dragging their feet in ICAO. It’s completely cynical.”

The move came as a surprise, according to lawyers at Reed Smith, “because no alterna-tive scheme has yet been agreed by ICAO or its members, and certainly no alternative scheme is going to be in place for a few years yet”. It certainly upset environmental groups, who said the EU move took the pressure off ICAO to act and was an overreaction to some vague undertakings by ICAO.

“The EU has made a bigger gesture than was necessary by stopping its clock for one year, but there is no longer any excuse for inaction, and we hope ICAO’s ‘high-level group’ will

move quickly to develop a viable measure that is environmentally effective and addresses the concerns of developing nations,” says Bill Hemmings, aviation manager at European pressure group Transport & Environment.

CLEARING ROADBLOCKSICAO secretary general Raymond Benjamin says that “we welcome this initiative and want to collaborate on this”, while IATA says that “the EU announcement clears the way for progress at ICAO”.

“The EU scheme did focus minds and that was a good thing, but it went beyond that and became a roadblock,” adds IATA.

And in China, the world’s fastest-growing aviation market, China Eastern Airlines point-edly agreed a deal for 60 Airbus aircraft within a fortnight of the announcement, while China Southern signed up for 10 of the company’s A330s days later.

Yet the EU’s desire for urgency on the issue does not seem to have infected the industry or ICAO. IATA spokesman Chris Goater said that “the timing [of any solution] is less im-portant than the way it is implemented and that is one global scheme applied fairly across all operators”.

Meanwhile, Benjamin said: “We are not working under EU pressure. The EU is focus-ing on MBMs but that is only one focus of our work. Producing a global scheme by the next assembly is not realistic. What we have to do is answer whether it is feasible or not. We are 191 countries, not 27 [like the EU]. It is not easy to get agreement.”

Given that the EU climate commissioner was unequivocal that the ETS process would restart “if this exercise does not deliver”, it is unclear what will happen should the ICAO

process fail to satisfy the EU. An optimistic observer would say that if ICAO fails to make progress by this time next year, the EU will be able to “restart the clock” with its legitimacy enhanced, having given the global body the space and time to act.

“The European Commission would say: ‘We listened, we compromised – you have failed to do anything so we will go back to what we originally planned,’” says Baines.

The pessimistic view is that the EU has now effectively abandoned its unilateral ef-forts to cut emissions from aviation, not least since it has emerged that Hedegaard’s an-nouncement came in the face of strong pres-sure from the Airbus countries, particularly France. Arvanitakis says that “international aviation is out of the ETS”.

“The EU has lost all its negotiating power,” he adds. “You can’t stop the process but say ‘I reserve the right to get really cross in a year’s time’. It’s not credible”.

The threat is further diminished by the fact that US airlines are now prohibited by law from complying with the requirements of the ETS.

Ultimately, Hedegaard’s question after the meeting of ETS opponents in Moscow earlier this year remains hanging in the air. “We know that you don’t like it [the EU ETS], but what are your constructive proposals to reach a global agreement for the aviation sector?”

However, the suspicion remains that the EU has been forced into a climbdown that will put efforts to create a global scheme to tackle emissions from aviation back on the slow track.

The European Court of Justice declared the

EU scheme lawful

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OBITUARY


For an archive of Flight International stories in which Allen Novick was quoted, visit flightglobalimages.com/novick

Novick combined engineering expertise with intuition of market trends

He authored and executed a strategy to push Allison into the commnercial engine market in the 1980s and originated the manufacturer’s “common core” powerplant concept

Allen Novick

A llen “Al” Novick, who died of natural causes on 8 December 2012, helped to transform the fortunes of

engine maker Allison in the 1980s.In one four-year period from 1987 to 1990, Novick’s

talent as an engineer, savvy as a market strategist and ability to manage complex assignments came together to produce an impressive list of achievements.

The Allison/Rolls-Royce executive started the four-year run by earning a share of his first Collier Trophy in 1987. Over the next three years, he conceived and im-plemented a unique propulsion architecture that con-tributed to winning three more.

That was also the period when Novick authored the strategy that transformed Allison from a niche supplier to military airlifters and light helicopters. Under his guidance, its portfolio of turboshaft and turboprop en-gines expanded to regional jets, business jets, high-alti-tude unmanned air vehicles, more airlifters and a new class of operational aircraft called a tiltrotor.

More impressively, Novick entered all these markets using a single engine core, a technical feat that has not been repeated successfully ever since.

All this was achieved by the Brookline, Massachu-setts, native who arrived at Purdue University in 1960 with only a general interest in engineering. He recalled later that he decided to concentrate on aeronautics on a whim as he strolled by the university building. Novick remained at Purdue until 1972, receiving a doctorate in aeronautical engineering.

Novick then joined General Motors’ Detroit Diesel Al-lison division. As a rank-and-file engineer, he made his mark in 1982 when he co-authored a paper describing the design of a variable-geometry combustor with the rich-quench-lean process that would become the indus-try standard for low emissions of nitrous oxide.

MANAGING SUCCESSBut Novick’s biggest achievements came after he moved to the executive suite. In the mid-1980s, Allison tasked him to push the company into the commercial engine market – no simple task. It had been decades since Alli-son had built thousands of V-1710s for Second World War-era fighters and then J-33 turbojets at the beginning of the jet age. The company’s aviation portfolio had dwindled to supplying T56 turboprops for the Lock-heed C-130 and Model 250 turboshafts for light helicop-ters, such as the Bell 206 Jet Ranger.

Novick’s first move would prove a commercial dead-end, but that could not have been foreseen in 1985. Then, the idea of a propfan – also known as an unduct-ed fan – was considered an inevitable response by en-gine makers to rising fuel prices. But when fuel prices fell towards the end of the 1990s, Boeing dropped the propfan-powered 7J7 and McDonnell Douglas equipped the MD-90 with turbofans. Allison’s work on the prop-

fan enabled Novick to claim his first Collier Trophy in 1987, but the programme did not survive.

With the demise of the propfan, Novick’s engineers at Allison faced a dilemma. In the late 1980s, Novick’s market intuition had perceived a demand for new kind of airliner – a 50-seat regional jet to expand mainline feeder networks. At the same time, the US Marine Corps wanted to build a revolutionary aircraft called the Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey. There were also new airlifters on drawing boards in the US, Italy and Japan.

Allison did not have the resources to launch three en-gine development programmes, so Novick proposed the “common core” idea. One core would be developed to support the first application – the AE 1107 turboshaft engine powering the V-22 tiltrotor. It would then be adapted as the AE 2100 turboprop for the Lockheed Martin C-130J. A turbofan variant – the AE 3007 – then emerged for the ERJ-145 family of Embraer regional jets. Other applications followed, powering the Cessna Citation X and Teledyne Ryan RQ-4 Global Hawk. Novick’s common core did not convince every airframer – Bombardier selected the Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150 for the Q400 – but there were few misses.

The success of the common core was partly attribut-able to Novick’s intuition of market trends, but mostly to the engineering organisation he designed to execute his overall vision. He commissioned three teams, one each for the core or high-pressure section, one for the inlet of the turbofan and one for the gearbox and low-pressure turbine.

Even today, the family of engines developed from the common core share about 85% of the same part num-bers, a lasting tribute to Novick’s skills. Allen Novick, born 16 September 1942, died 8 December 2012

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LETTERS


[email protected]

We welcome your letters on any aspect of the aerospace industry. Please write to: The Editor, Flight International, Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 5AS, UK. Or email [email protected]

The opinions on this page do not necessarily represent those of the editor. Flight International cannot publish letters without name and address. Letters must be no more than 250 words in length.

FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

We welcome your letters on any aspect of the aerospace industry. Please write to: The Editor, Flight International, Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 5AS, UK. Or email [email protected]

The opinions on this page do not necessarily represent those of the editor. Letters without a full postal address sup-plied may not be published. Letters may also be published on flightglobal.com and must be no longer than 250 words.

FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

For more on the debate about Heathrow airport’s future, visit flightglobal.com/heathrow

So David Cameron wants a third runway at Heathrow, but [London mayor] Boris Johnson would pre-fer a four-runway “hub” airport in the Thames estuary. Whose view is right? Maybe neither.

New aircraft types will grow the number of routes served non-stop. Heathrow may lose some of its big share of hub traffic.

Where should we look for a major capacity increase? Not to Gatwick, where a single runway handles 50 movements an hour and the suggestion of a second runway has received the most hostile reaction in Sussex since the Battle of Hastings. Stansted handles about 18 million passen-gers a year – rather less than orig-inally expected. It has not been favoured by major airlines nor welcomed by local residents.

Attention shifts to Luton, cur-rently handling just short of 10 million passengers a year, its traf-fic limited by the length of its single runway. There is room for a parallel second runway to the south with projected flight paths over sparsely populated terrain. The airport is just two miles from

the M1 motorway. With a fast mainline railway to St Pancras and Moorgate, it is nearer to Lon-don in journey time than Gat-wick and Stansted. It has rail connection to such cities as Leicester, Nottingham and Derby. A shuttle to Heathrow could readily be provided.

Better use of Luton could boost capacity of the four airports to about 190 million passengers a year, a rise of 45% over 2011 lev-els. This compares with an esti-mated 150 million for the capaci-ty of the £50 billion Thames Hub.

Thus Britain has arguably the most crucial decision to make in recent transport history. It is be-tween a spectacular monolith of

an airport built at huge public ex-pense, either where nobody wants it or where it displeases a large number of West Londoners, or a project at a fraction of the cost that would better meet the needs of the air traveller and con-tribute more greatly to an effi-cient integrated transport system.Peter DetmoldBaie d’Urfé, Québec, Canada

Audits for allThe story “Latin airlines push for a small carrier safety initiative” (Flight International, 27 Novem-ber-3 December 2012) notes that there is a subgroup of non-IOSA airlines – including those ineligi-

ble for the IATA operational safe-ty audit programme – with an ac-cident rate four times higher than IOSA carriers. This causes alarm bells to ring in my head.

A proper audit will uncover safety, health and environment deficiencies. It will recommend how such deficiencies can be rectified. Timescales such as “immediate”, “as soon as possi-ble” and “when time and/or budget permits” are imposed. A further follow-up audit may be required to check progress.

IATA is denying help to the very organisations that need it.Peter GrayHelicopter and tiltrotor test pilot, Flight International

Redhill, UK

Motion secondedIt is pleasing to see John Farley writing so positively about auto-mation (Flight International, 11-17 December 2012). Progress towards even safer aviation is now held back by those who continue to argue against its de-ployment. A refined version of John’s emergency “glide land-ing” button could easily be in-stalled in every modern airliner. The safety case for every airport should identify all possible (and some “least-worst”) landing sites in advance. Possible glide trajec-tories could be computed in the background during all normal operations. The button to engage the “panic-autopilot” might have saved AF447 or assisted BA038 in its crash landing at Heathrow. How can it be safe to fly without such a simple device when air-craft routinely arrive and depart over major city centres?David ParkinsonGuildford, UK

Cracking the capacity nut

OPERATIONS

In defence of regulatorsWhile I compliment Peter Gray

on his letters, rotary assump-

tions do not always translate

to fixed wing. His latest (Flight International, 18 December

2012-7 January 2013) raises

an airworthiness issue, but

not the one put forward.

Air France suffered a “black

swan” event: a multiple pitot

failure. This caused the control-law reversion, so it was not per se

the autopilot failure. In a modern airliner, the computers have

enough data for the autopilot without pitot inputs. It is simply a mat-

ter of programming, but this has not been wanted, so manufactur-

ers produce aircraft to suit.

Lingering criteria from earlier generations of aircraft do not

consider the autopilot to be essential at all times. Since the

advent of the two-crew operation, autopilot functionality has not

been readdressed. Taking control may be forced on crew,

regardless of workload capacity or when their attention should be

focused elsewhere.

Pilots who complain about automation degrading their skills now

need to consider whether it is the chicken or the egg. What regula-

tors sign off is what the industry has decided is the required airwor-

thiness standard. As a test pilot, I have always found regulators to

be high-quality professionals. In the fixed-wing world, modern com-

puterised airliners are certainly not beyond their comprehension.

Chris Roberts Leatherhead, UK

Different assumptions apply

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flightglobal.com/jobsEMAIL [email protected] CALL +44 (20) 8652 4900 FAX +44 (20) 8652 4877

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Asst./Assoc. Professors of - Airline Operations- Aviation Acoustics- Air Transport Operations

Faculty/department: Aerospace EngineeringLevel: PhD degreeMaximum employment: 38 hours per weekDuration of contract: Tenure trackSalary scale: €3195 to €5920 per month gross

yourjobatTUDelft

Due to the continued growth within the Air Transport and Operations

(ATO) Section at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering there are a

number of Assistant/Associate Professor positions available in disciplines

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and airport airside operations. We are particularly open to enthusiastic

candidates who have high potential and want to work in a team

environment; preferably with a relevant PhD (or about to complete),

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particular application interest include the following:

Airline operations:

This post will develop world-class airline performance and support

expertise, supported by close collaboration with industry; including the

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Aviation acoustics:

The focus is on operational aircraft induced noise: including acoustic

modeling, performing acoustic experiments, and applied noise modelling

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Air transport operations:

The focus will be on the modeling, analysis, simulation and optimization

of air transport operations in relation to key performance metrics of

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Further information: www.jobsindelft.nl

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Recruitment headache?

Get express relief with THE industry job site

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One industry, one job sitePrint Online Mobile

Flight Crew:Instructors:Suitable candidates must have:

• Hold a valid and current (within the last 12 months) recognised Captains Type Rating on the

B767/B757.

• ICAO Licence acceptable to the Thailand Aviation Authorities.

• Current Class 1 Medical (must be valid for a minimum of 6 months on joining).

• Hold or have held an acceptable TRI (A) or SFI (A) Certification.

• Experienced on International Routes.

• Hold ICAO member country documentations which is acceptable to the Thailand Authority.

• Minimum total time 8,500 hours flying time on Multi Crew, Multi Engine Aircraft.

• Minimum 2,500 hours PIC time B767/B757 (left hand seat).

• Passport to be current for a minimum of 12 months on joining, with a minimum of 7 full

blank pages available.

• Be in possession of no aviation incidents / accidents report.

• No criminal record.

• Provide three references.

• ICAO Level 6 English.

• Completed An Approved “Core Course” or Train the Trainer Course.

Captains:Suitable candidates must have:

• ICAO Licence acceptable to the Thailand Aviation Authorities.

• Hold a valid and current (within the last 12 months) recognised Captains Type Rating on the

B767/B757.

• Current Class 1 Medical (must be valid for a minimum of 6 months on joining).

• Experience on International Routes.

• Hold ICAO member country documentations which is acceptable to the Thailand Authority.

• Minimum 7,000 hours total flight time (civil aircraft).

• Minimum 1,000 hours PIC time B767/B757 (left hand seat).

• Minimum 2,500 hours total time B767/B757.

• Minimum ICAO Level 4 English,(current for a minimum of one year on joining).





• Provide three references

First Officers:Suitable candidates must have:

• ICAO Licence acceptable to the Thailand Aviation Authority.

• Hold a valid and current (within the last 12 months) recognised Type Rating on the

B767/B757.

• Current minimum Class 2 Medical (must be valid for a minimum of 5 months on joining).

• Experience on International Routes.

• Hold documentation from a country which is acceptable to Thailand Authorities.

• Minimum 2,000 hours total flight time (civil aircraft).

• Minimum 500 hours total time B767/B757.

• Minimum ICAO Level 4 English,(current for a minimum of one year on joining).





• Provide three references.

If you meet the above requirements and wish to apply, please submit your CV

at [email protected] before the closing date on 20th

January 2013. Those Applicants who are shortlisted will be contacted.

On joining a successful Pass in both Air Law & Human Performance is

required by Thailand Aviation Authority in obtaining a Validation.

Pass a Drug and Alcohol Test.

Note: In the Email Subject Line Place Position You Are Applying For.

1. CV, containing a Passport Size Colour Photo.

2. Colour Copy of Passport (original size).

3. Colour Copy of Pilot Licence, [front and back] (original size).

4. Copy of Medical Certificate (original size).

5. Copy of Last Three Pages of Log Book (original size).

6. Copy of Last Simulator Training Session (original size).

7. Copy of Last Simulator Check Report (PPC) (original size).

8. Colour Copy of Current English Proficiency (original size).

Note: Maximum Size of Each Email To Be No Larger Than 20MB

The Newest Leisure Airline In Bangkok, Thailand, (Asia Pacific Airlines), Is Looking For Expressions Of InterestsFrom The Following Qualified Candidates For a Start Date In April 2013


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WORKING WEEK


Where are you from?Born in England, grew up in Rho-desia. I left before it officially be-came Zimbabwe. I served in the Rhodesian Air Force 7th Squadron as a flight engineer. I was then chief engineer for McAlpine Heli-copters, and after that I went to work with helicopters for Shriner Airways, in Nigeria. Then I went back to McAlpine for a short stint and came out to New Zealand in 1986 to set up a subsidiary for the company. Around 1990 McAlpine was bought by a New Zealand company, Wing Rotor, and we started our own partnership based out of North Shore airfield servic-ing and overhauling a variety of helicopters, namely Eurocopter AS350s, Hughes 500s, Bell 206s, and Robinson R22s and R44s. You called it Heli Services?We supported helicopter mainte-nance and flying operations in Cambodia and Somalia, until around 2003. My twins were born and I needed a change of career so we purchased our existing facility and started a flight training school. At the same time I developed the Helipod product line. We grew the line to encompass some 32 sup-plemental type certificates for vari-ous products, pods and spray sys-tems. Simplex basically purchased Helipod and they began to devel-op the manufacturing of the prod-uct line in the USA and we slowly wound down Helipod activities here in New Zealand.

Why design a new helicopter?The thought occurred to me that there was an opportunity for an experimental category six-seat single-engine turbine category of all-composite construction. It be-came patently obvious to me that there was no low-cost, low-main-tenance type of helicopter out there that didn’t suffer the effects of corrosion in its airframe.You are breaking ground with composites. We’ve been working with compos-ites for the last 17 years. We have the first helicopter in the world to be manufactured in this fashion. During the development of the processes we’ve taken about half a dozen patents related to the design and manufacturing process. Other manufacturers have, for several years now, been using composites in parts of their aircraft – predomi-

nantly secondary and tertiary structures. We believe we have an opportunity to revolutionise heli-copters for the future. Base kit price at this time is USD$395,000, with a quick-build option costing an additional $44,500.How was the first flight in July?It was a thrilling experience. I was the pilot. Early plans are proving out extremely well and we have not made any design changes from the original concept.Any growth problems?In essence it was a smooth tran-sition because we operated Heli-pod from here on Bawden Road [in Auckland], and the guys who had been manufacturing for Helipod basically transi-tioned straight across into the helicopter programme. Your wife is co-founder?The most important person in

the team would be Leanne, my good wife. She is now well known from her days at Helipod. She used to do the majority of the manufacturing. With the heli-copter programme Leanne has also been team leader.

I designed the shape, the profile and the operation environment, and we have a composite expert who is a former designer for a high-tech company in New Zea-land with experience designing Americas Cup and transpacific yachts. Our manufacturing engi-neers have developed gearboxes for wind farms and also manufac-ture transmissions for US compa-nies. Behind that we have electri-cal engineers to design the electrical systems that will provide very efficient systems operation and very good start characteristics. Do you play as well as work?We have a ping-pong table and a pool table and often sit down on a Friday afternoon and have a barbe-cue. It’s an opportunity for the guys to make suggestions on areas of improvement. It is this sort of culture that we are encouraging. ■

WORKING WEEK PETER MALONEY

Rethinking the helicopterPeter Maloney is president and founder of Composite Helicopters International in Auckland, New Zealand, which designed and manufactures the KC518 Adventourer all-composite six-seat turbine helicopter kit

Maloney has not looked back since moving to New Zealand in 1986

If you would like to feature in

Working Week, or you know

someone who does, email your

pitch to [email protected]

For more employee work experiences, pay a visit to flightglobal.com/workingweek

Opportunities in Design Engineeringwww.jobs.eads.com

Co-located with:

World Travel Catering& Onboard Services

9 – 11 April 2013Hamburg Messe , Germany

Organised by: In association with:

The destination forthe aircraft interiorsindustryAircraft Interiors Expo 20139-11 April 2013, Hamburg Messe, Germany

Aircraft Interiors Expo is the unrivalled launchpad for tomorrow’s designs in cabin interiors,in-fl ight entertainment, connectivity and passenger services.

Register your interest to attend at www.aircraftinteriorsexpo.com/fl ightint

flight international - 08-14 january 2013

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