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Indonesia Food Security Monitoring Bulletin Special Focus: La Niña Volume 3 August 2016

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Page 1: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

IndonesiaFoodSecurityMonitoringBulletinSpecialFocus:La Niña

Volume3August2016

Page 2: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

Keymessages1. ALaNiñawilllikelystartinAugustorSeptember20161 andwillcontinueintothe lastquarterof20162,causing

wetterthannormalweatherconditions.

2. TheIndonesiaWeatherandMeteorologyBureau(BMKG)predictsunusuallyhighrainfallwillcontinueuntilSeptember2016inmostofthecountry.RainfalllevelsinJava,theeasternareasofSulawesi,centralPapuaandsouthern KalimantanandSumatramayincreasesignificantlybyupto200percent.

3. DuringpastLaNiñaevents,Indonesiaexperiencedabovenormalrainfall,especiallyacrossJava,Maluku,Sulawesi andthesouthern areasofSumatra,KalimantanandPapua,causingheavyrainsandhigherthannormalrainfallthatledtoincreasedoccurrenceoffloodsandlandslidesevents.Duringthe2010and2011LaNiña,779people losttheirlifeand2857wereinjuredduetofloods.

4. TheimpactofweatherchangesassociatedwithLaNiñaonfoodsecurityisdifficulttopredict.Historically,increasedrainfallnegativelyimpactedagriculturalproductioninsomeareasandpositivelyinothers.However,theweatherchangestendtoweighheavilyonfoodaccess,stressingfoodandlivelihoodssecuritysituationofthemostvulnerablegroups.

5. CurrentweatherandthepossibleLaNiñaconditions increasetheriskofmorefrequentandintensefloodeventsandlandslides.Inthecomingrainyseasonthismaymeanmorecausalitiesanddamage,andmayimpactfoodaccessbydisruptingtravelnetworksandfoodstorage,andhealthandnutritionstatusbyhigherriskofwater-bornediseases.

1http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current2BasedontheNINO3.4region,wherechangesinlocalsea-surfacetemperature are importantforshiftingthelargeregionofrainfalltypicallylocatedinthefarwesternPacific.http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/Diagnostics.html3http://bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat/Informasi_Iklim/Prakiraan_Iklim/Prakiraan_Hujan_Bulanan.bmkg

Page 3: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

IntroductionThis is the third of a series of quarterly monitoring bulletinson the impact of weather extremes on food security inIndonesia. The first and second bulletin are available online:http://www.wfp.org/content/indonesia-food-security-monitoring-2015 and the current issue is available online:http://www.bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat/Informasi_Iklim/Buletin.bmkg.

In the first section of this issue, current and historical climateevents and their impact on weather in Indonesia betweenJuly and September are examined. A significantportion of thecurrent analysis is derived from the Indonesian Agency forMeteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) andColumbia University’s International Research Institute forClimate and Society.

The next section focuses on historical impacts of weatherchanges associated with La Niña on disasters occurrence. Thefollowing section then examines other historical impacts suchas on agricultural productionand rice prices.

Finally, a weather outlook section for the next three monthsconcludes this roundof the bulletin.

ListofmapsandanalysisThebulletincontainsthefollowingmapsandanalyses:

1. Changeinrainfallassociatedwithadecreaseinseasurfacetemperature

2. HistoricalLaNiñaevents3. LaNiña1998and2010andrainfallanomalyforJuly-

August–September4. RainfallanomalyforJuly20165. NumberofdayssincelastrainfallforJuly20166. Floodandlandslidesevents7. HistoricalimpactofLaNiñaonriceandmaize8. HistoricalimpactoncoffeeandpriceofriceduringLa

Niñayears9. PotentialplantingareasinAugust201610. Rainfalloutlookforthenextthreemonths

Page 4: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

LaNiñaandtheIndonesiancontext

AfteraverystrongElNiñoeventin2015andearly2016,currentanalysisoftheElNiñoSouthernOscillation(ENSO) indicatesalikelyLaNiñaeventwithweakintensityinthesecondhalfof2016.Historicaltrendshowsthereisa40percentchanceLaNiñadevelopsafteranElNiñoevent.Typically,LaNiñamaturesfromJulyandpeaksbetweenDecemberandFebruary.LaNiñaconditionscanlastupto2years,thoughcommonlypersistbetween9to17months.

Adecrease inseasurfacetemperature(SST)inthePacificOcean,whichassociateswithLaNiñaevents,heavilyaffectsweatherconditionsinIndonesia.ThemapaboveshowschangesinrainfalllevelswithaonedegreedeclineinSST.Darkgreen areasrepresentan80mmincreaseinmonthlyprecipitationlevels.

Change in monthly rainfall with10C decrease in sea surfacetemperature in NINO 3.4 region

Source:IRIforClimateandSocietyhttp://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Page 5: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

LaNiñainIndonesia- currentconditionsandhistoricaltrends

EarlyJuly STTvalueswerejustbelowzero,indicatingneutralconditions. ThecurrentENSOpredictionmodels showthatENSOneutralconditions willlikelypersistthroughoutJuly andtransitionintoLaNiñainlateAugustorSeptember.Thesedevelopments resembleatransitionfromElNiñotoLaNiñain1998,ayearwhenaverystrongElNiñowasfollowedbyamoderateLaNiña.Thegraphontherightshows acomparisonofseasurfacetemperaturesin1997/1998and2015/2016.

ThemostrecentLaNiñaeventoccurredin2010-2011,whenafteramoderateandshortElNiño, amoderateLaNiñadeveloped in2010,transitionedintoweakandneutralENSOconditions andreturnedtoweakLaNiñainthesecondhalfof2011. -2

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La N iña 2010- 2012SST

SST

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0

ElNiño/LaNiña1997-1999and2015-2016

1997-1999 2015-2016

Page 6: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

1998and2010LaNiñaeventsandrainfallanomaly

Typically, LaNiñaisassociatedwithincreasedrainfall,higherstormsurgesandhightides.In1998and2010IndonesiawasaffectedbyLaNiñaevents,whichdeveloped afteranElNiñoinbothyears.

TheLaNiñaeventsinbothyearsbroughtmorerainfallfromJulyandwetterthannormalconditionspersisteduntilDecember.Duringtherainyseason, normallystartinginOctober,therainfallcouldincreasetwotimes.

Page 7: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

Rainfallanomaly PercentofAverage,July2016

Thisyear,partsofIndonesiahavealreadybeenwetterthannormalsinceMayandunusually highrainfallcontinueduntilJuly asdemonstratedonthemapabove.The2016dryseasonhasstarted1to2monthslateinalmosthalfthecountryandmanyareashavebeenexperiencingaso-called ‘wetdryseason’.Southern partsofIndonesia havebeenaffectedbyabnormally hightidesandlargewaves,reachingupto5meters.Themaponthefollowingpage,showingthenumber ofdayswithoutrain,indicatesthattherewereveryfewdayswithoutrainfall,inspiteofthisnormally beingthedryseasonformostofthecountry.LaNiñaconditions arelikelytopersistuntilearlynextyearandthismayleadtomoreintensestormsandheavyrainsinthecomingrainyseason, causingmoreflooding, landerosion andlandslides.

Page 8: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

Numberofdayssincelastrainfall asof10July2016TropicalweatherandclimatepatternssuchMadden-JulianOscillation,monsoonandnegativeIndianOceanDipolearecontributingtotheweatheranomaliescurrentlyaffectingIndonesia.

Inthesecondhalfof2016,apartfromthepotentialLaNiña,IndianOceanDipole(IOD)islikelytoremainnegative.TheIODhasbeennegativesinceJuneandthelatestforecastsshowtheseconditionsarelikelytopersistuntilNovember2016.AnegativeIODtypicallybringsmorerainsfromthewest.

1

* EachpointonthemaprepresentsanobservationatBMKGfieldstation

*

Page 9: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

ImpactsofpreviousLaNiña

Page 10: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

FloodeventsbyprovinceLandslidesbyprovinceLaNiñaandimpactonlivelihoods Floods

Duringthemostrecent LaNiñain2010-2011,theweatherextremes relatedtothephenomenon ledtoanincreased occurrence offloodevents.Inlate2010,whenLaNiñawasatitsstrongest, thenumber offloodsincreased 1.7timescompared totheaveragenumber offloodssince2009.Thenumberofdeadandmissingwas3timeshigher(607),andthenumber ofinjured peopleroseto2588,whiletheaverageis471.

Thisyear,thenumberoffloodevents(442)asof26Julyhasalmostreached theannualaverageoffloodssince2009.Theincreasedoccurrence offloodsthisyearisnot associatedwith LaNiñayet,butwithotherweatherandclimateeventspresented intheprevioussection.However,therainfall anomalymapforthe2010-2011LaNiñaeventonpage5showsacorrelation betweentheincreasednumber offloodsandtheareaswithabovenormalrainfall.

Intheareaswithinadequate sanitation, morefloodeventsandheavyrainsmayresultinoutbreaksofwater-borne diseases,increasinghealthandnutritionrisks.

Impactsoffloods inIndonesia

Year Floodevents Dead&missing Injured

2009 381 309 3832010 990 608 2588

2011 554 171 269

2012 540 108 772013 683 184 1052014 559 107 2542015 492 39 15

2016(asof26July) 442 62 84

Averagenumberofannualfloods eventsbyprovincefor2009-2016

020406080100120140160180200

Aceh

Sumut

Sumbar

Riau

Jambi

Sumsel

Bengkulu

Lampu

ngBabel

Kepri

Jakarta

Jabar

Jateng

Yogyakarta

Jatim

Banten Bali

NTB NTT

Kalbar

Kalteng

Kalsel

Kaltim

Kaltara

Sulut

Sulteng

Sulsel

Sultra

Goron

talo

Sulbar

Maluku

Malut

Papu

aPapb

ar

Floodeventsbyprovince

2010 2011 Avg06-15

Page 11: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

LaNiñaandimpactonlivelihoods Landslides

Occurrence oflandslidesduringthe2010-2011 LaNiñaalsoincreased, though notassignificantlyasfloods.Inlate2010,thenumberoflandslidesreached400whiletheaverageoccurrence oflandslidessince2009is379.Thenumber ofinjured peopledoubled, fromtheaverage153to300andthenumberofdeadwas1.4timeshigherin2010.

Thegraphsonthisandthepreviouspageshowthatthemostsignificantincreaseintheoccurrence offloodsandlandslideevents,both intotal numberofeventsandcompared to10yearsaverage,wasinCentral, EastandWestJavaprovinces.SouthSumatra,SouthSulawesiandSulawesiTenggara,andSouthKalimantanalsoshowhigheroccurrence offloodsduringLaNiñayears.

Thisyear,asof26July2016, 261landslides occurredacrossIndonesia.Theincreasing probability ofLaNiñastartinginAugust/September2016mightmeanmorefloodsandlandslideseventswilloccur, causingfurtherlosses.

ImpactsoflandslidesinIndonesia

Year Landslidesevents Dead&missing Injured

2009 238 76 2062010 400 266 3082011 329 171 1112012 291 119 802013 296 190 1332014 600 372 2212015 504 157 120

2016(until26July) 261 111 46

Averagenumberofannuallandslides eventsbyprovincefor2009-2016

020406080

100120140160180200

Aceh

Sumut

Sumbar

Riau

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Sumsel

Bengkulu

Lampu

ngBabel

Kepri

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Jabar

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Yogyakarta

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NTB NTT

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Kalteng

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Kaltim

Kaltara

Sulut

Sulteng

Sulsel

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Goron

talo

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Malut

Papu

aPapb

ar

Landslidesbyprovince

2010 2011 Avg06-15

Page 12: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

LaNiñaandimpactonlivelihoodsandfoodsecurity Rice

Theincreasedrainfallin2011andlate2010,coincidingwithplantingforthe2011mainpaddyseason,hadanoverallnegativebutrelativelysmallimpactonthe2011nationalpaddyproduction.Thetotal2011paddyproduction wasonly2percent (1.1milliontons)lowerthanthe2010production, and5percent (3.4milliontons)lowerthantheplannedproduction.

Smallerharvestedarea,loweryieldsandmorepestoutbreaksarethekeycontributingfactorsforthisdecline.Attacksbybrowngrasshopper,amajorricepestwhichthrivesinwetterconditions,arenormallywidespreadduringLaNiñayears1.Intotal,floodsandpestsanddiseasesin2011damagedaround1.13millionhaofpaddy. In2009itwas0.9millionha.

Thehigherprecipitationlevelsalsohadapositiveimpactonproduction- especiallyfordrierareas.NusaTenggaraBarat,whichnormallyreceiveslessthan2000mmofrainoncroplandannually,producedsurplusin2011,whilein2010therewasasignificantdeficit.

1Susanti,E.etal.(2010)UtilizationofClimateInformation forDevelopment of EarlyWarningSystemforBrownPlantHopper Attacks onRice.Indones ianJournal ofAgriculture, Vol 3(1),2010

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Paddyareaharvested,2010-2012

2010 2011 2012

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SulawesiSelatan

SumateraSelatan

SumateraUtara

Lampung

SumateraBarat

NusaTenggaraBarat

KalimantanSelatan

Thegapbetweenactualandplannedpaddyproduction in2010and2011,toppaddyproducingprovinces,percentage

2011 2010

Page 13: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

LaNiñaandimpactonlivelihoodsandfoodsecurity Maize

Thedecreasein2011nationalmaizeproductionwasslightlyhigher,reaching6percentcomparedtothe2010maizeproduction.Higherrainfallresultinginsmallerplantedarea,withmorethan400.000hectares(10percent)reduction intheareaplantedandmorepestanddiseaseoutbreaksarethemainreasonsforthelower2011production levels.

Theactualmaizeproduction in2011was21.7percent,equivalentto4.8milliontons,behind theplannedproduction. Javaisland,producingmorethan50percentofIndonesia’smaize,cultivated19.5percent(2.2milliontons)lessmaizethanplannedin2011.In2010 thegapwas1.9percent.

Aswithrice,NusaTenggaraBaratshowspositiveproduction trend,with8.7percent,or35.4thousand tonsmoremaizeproducedthanplanned.Ayearbefore,theprovincewas30percentbehindtheplanned target.

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Maizeareaharvested,2010-2012

2010 2011 2012

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3.Lampung4.SulawesiSelatan5.SumateraUtara

6.JawaBarat7.NTB8.NTT

9.Gorontalo10.SumateraBarat

Thegapbetweenactualandplannedmaizeproductionin2010and2011,topmaizeproducingprovinces

2011 2010%difference fromplannedmaizeproduction

Page 14: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

LaNiñaandimpactonlivelihoodsandfoodsecurity

CoffeeProductionTheweatherchangesinlate2010and2011negativelyaffectedthe2011coffeeproduction, whichdeclinedby7percentcomparedtothepreviousyear,andwas10percentbehind theplannedproduction. Higherrainfallandcloudcoverageimpactedthecriticalphasesofcoffeegrowing- bloominginlate2010,followingcherry ripeningandharvestinginthefirsthalfof2011.Largeplantedareasremainedimmature(15percent,186000ha)andweredamaged(11percent,139000ha),andthematuredplantsproducedbeansoflowerquality.

Coffeeproduction isaprimaryincomesourceforaround1.9millionfarminghouseholdsandaveragecoffeeexportsinthelast5yearsreachedaround1.08billionUSDannually.

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Target Production

Coffeeproduction2010-2012

PricesofRiceInthepreviousLaNiñaepisodes,pricesofricerosemoresteeplyaroundseasonalpeaksthaninnormalyears.AnotherunusualpriceincreaseoccurredbetweenMayandAugust2010and2011,whenretailricepricesroseby7.5percentand5.4respectively.Typically,theincreasebetweenMayandAugustwouldbeverysmall,around1percent.

ThecombinedeffectsofthereducedagriculturalproductionandhigherricepricesareindicativeofanegativeimpactofweatherchangesassociatedwithLaNiñaonagriculturallivelihoods.Agricultureisaprimarysourceofincomefor32.88percentIndonesiansandofthese41.33percenteatfood fromownproduction.Decreaseinproductionandhigherpricesmeanfoodforconsumptionandincomeofagriculturalhouseholdsmaybereducedandcannegativelyaffectlivelihoodsandfoodsecurityofvulnerablegroups.

Page 15: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

PlantingpotentialinAugust2016

Page 16: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

Estimatesofplantingpotentialinthe2016thirdseasonPotentialareaavailable forplanting inAugust2016Abovenormalrainfallduringthe2016dryseasonhascreatedanopportunity forthethirdseasonplantinginareasthatwouldnormallyhaveonly twoseasons.Thethirdgrowingseasonaccountsforaround21percentofannualriceproductionandisusuallydependentonirrigationwater.

Themaponthispageshowspotentialplantingareaforthreefoodcrops.TheestimatesarebasedontheharvestpotentialinAugustandtheAugustrainfallforecastinthecentralandwesternpartsofJavaandsouthernareasofSumatra.Orangecolorrepresentsareaswiththepredicted50- 100mmofmonthly rainfallrange,whichissuitableforpulses.Redareasindicatepotentialforplantingshortcyclepaddyorpulses,withthepredicted100-150mmrainfallrange.Potentialareaforpaddyplanting,requiringmorethan150mmofmonthlyrainfall,isindicatedingreen.

Page 17: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

Estimatesofplantingpotentialinthe2016thirdseason

UsingsatelliteimagerytoestimateplantingpotentialinAugust2016

ByanalyzingsatelliteimagesofthegrowingseasoninApril,estimatesofharvestingpotentialinAugustforallofIndonesiaaremade.CombinedwiththeAugustrainfallforecast,plantingpotentialisidentifiedforthethreefoodcrops,usingthespecificwaterrequirementforeachcropsgroup.Atnationallevel,Augustplantingpotentialforpaddyandshortcyclepaddyvarietyisaround220thousandhectareshighercomparedtothe5-yearsaverage.Theactualplantingareawillhoweverdependonothervariablesnotcaptured inthisestimates,suchaswaterandpestanddiseasesmanagementandavailabilityofshortcyclepaddyseedsinAugust.

Thetableon therightlistsprovinceswithmorethan1thousandhectaresofplantingpotentialforthethreefoodcropsasestimatedbyusingtheabovemethodology.

538 482

286

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Average (2010-2014)* 2016**

Thousandsha

PlantingareaforpaddyinAugust

Paddy Shortcyclepaddy/secondarycrops*Datasource:BPS**Estimatedplantingpotentialusingsatelliteimagery

Province Secondarycrops

Shortcyclepaddy/secondarycrops

Paddy

HectaresAceh 16,662 17,458 20,561SumateraUtara 0 295 34,347SumateraBarat 635 2,791 23,007Riau 0 0 6,201Jambi 0 608 10,722SumateraSelatan 0 12,019 88,609Bengkulu 0 27 12,367Lampung 1,287 71,612 8,796JawaBarat 83,695 46,865 5,689JawaTengah 65,900 59,425 1,882JawaTimur 3,616 0 0Banten 2,802 23,051 14,271Bali 4,387 0 0KalimantanBarat 0 0 29,741KalimantanTengah 0 35 23,060KalimantanSelatan 0 186 39,580KalimantanTimur 0 110 6,835SulawesiUtara 3,220 7,630 754SulawesiTengah 540 4,424 10,873SulawesiSelatan 14,675 26,468 126,982SulawesiTenggara 526 4,038 4,510Gorontalo 794 4,531 2,139SulawesiBarat 83 3,323 5,516Maluku 357 563 1,361MalukuUtara 0 0 1,755

Page 18: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

Weatheroutlook

Page 19: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

Rainfall anomaly prediction forAugust- October 2016

These maps are produced by the Indonesian Agency forMeteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG). Theyshow predictions of rainfall anomaly where yellow representsnormal rainfall and light green to dark green shows abovenormal rainfall. The month of August shows a continuingtrend of wetter than normal conditions across large parts ofIndonesia with the largest deviations across Java, the easternareas of Sulawesi, central Papua and southern Kalimantanand Sumatra. In September and October above normalrainfall is predicted to spread all across Indonesia with anexception parts of Papua, the Nusa Tenggaras, and northernSumatraandKalimantan.

Page 20: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

Probability of more than 150 mm of rainfall for August-October 2016

These maps area also produced by BMKG and indicatepredictions of rainfall greater than 150 mm per month. 150 mmis the monthly rainfall level required for paddy production. Inthese maps, dark red indicates a higher probability of rainfallgreater than 150 mm while dark blue indicates a lowerprobability and white indicates no chance of rainfall greaterthan 150 mm. In August, there is a very high probability ofsignificant rainfall predicted for Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Papua andwestern areas of Sumatra. By October, BMKG forecasts that thenorthern parts of Indonesia and western areas of Java willexperience rainfall accumulation greater than 150 mm. Howeverthe Nusa Tenggaras are unlikely to reach more than 150 mm ofmonthly rainfall.

Page 21: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

StandardizedPrecipitationIndex July- September2016

ThestandardizedprecipitationIndex(SPI)onthemapaboveshows significantprobability ofchangesinrainfalllevelsbetweenJuly andSeptember2016,comparedtolonger-termaverageforthesametimeperiod.

SPI,whichidentifies bothprobability andintensityofdryorwetspells, isnormally usedtodetectareasathigherriskofdrought,butcanbealsousedforflood-risk identification.

TheSPIforJuly, AugustandSeptember2016shows thatlargepartsofIndonesia arelikelytoexperiencegreaterthannormalrainfalllevels,exceptfornorthernpartsofSumatra,westernKalimantan,andPapua,wherenormalislikely.

Page 22: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

MethodologyThe maps in this bulletin are largely based on satellite data which is theprocessed and used to create various indicators relating to weatherextremes and rainfall deviations.

Rainfall anomaly is a measure of lack or excess rainfall in a periodcompared to the average. Data is derived from the University of California,Santa Barbara and used to compute the anomaly. Thresholds for anomalyfollow a standard protocol. Data for rainfall anomaly is derived fromCHIRPS, a global precipitation dataset with high spatial and temporalresolution acquired through the Universityof California, Santa Barbara.

Days without rainfall is based BMKG dataset from direct observation. Thisdata is processed to determine the number of days since the last rainfall(were a day with rainfall is noted as one where more than 0.5mm ofprecipitation as observed). The number of days since the last rain isdetermined using a standard classification, also used by the IndonesiaWeather and Meteorology Bureau (BMKG).

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a normalized measure of rainfallanomaly which shows probabilistic significance of estimated rainfall in alocation. SPI presented in this bulletin uses direct observation data andforecast data from BMKG datasets and is calculated using standardizedmethod for SPI.

Impact of weather changes associated with La Niña on crop and coffeeproduction is assessed through a trend analysis, utilizing official data fromCentral Statistics Agency (BPS). Analysis of rice prices during La Niña yearsis a trend analysis, utilizing retail prices of medium quality rice from theMinistry of Trade data. Assessment on flood events and their impact isalso a trend analysis, using data from National Disaster ManagementAgency database.

Potential planting in August 2016 was estimated by importing MODIS datainto TIMESAT- a program for analyzing time-series satellite data. Theprogram conducts pixel-by-pixel classification of satellite images todetermine growing stage of crops. To estimate planting potential inAugust 2016, harvesting status was combined with rainfall forecast forAugust 2016 for all of Indonesia. The potential planting area for the threeanalyzed crops is classified based on specific water requirement for eachcrop group. Rainfall forecast data is providedby BMKG.

Contributors

Thisbulletinisproduced byatechnicalworkinggroupledbytheIndonesianAgencyforMeteorology,ClimatologyandGeophysics(BMKG)andconsistingoftheMinistryofAgriculture(FoodSecurityAgency,FoodCropsDepartment,IndonesianAgencyforAgriculturalResearchandDevelopment,InformationandDataCenter,HorticultureDepartment),theNationalInstituteofAeronauticsandSpace(LAPAN),NationalDisasterManagementAuthority (BNPB)andtheCentralBureauofStatistics(BPS).ThebulletinisdirectedbyProfessorRizaldi BoeroftheBogorAgriculturalUniversity(IPB).TheWorldFoodProgramme andFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsprovidetechnicalsupport, includingthegenerationofmapsanddataanalysis.

Allcontentwithinthisbulletinisbasedupon themostcurrentavailabledata.Weatherconditionsareadynamicsituation,hencethecurrentrealitiesmaydifferfromwhatisdepicted inthisdocument.

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FloodandLandslidesResponse

1.IntotaltheNationalDisasterManagementAgency(BNPB)providedmorethanIDR1.13billion torespond tofloods andlandslides disastersinJune2016.

2.InWestSumatra,BNPBhandedoverIDR500million (USD37thousand) foremergencyresponseoperations.

3.Purworejo andBanjarnegara districtsinCentralJavadeclaredemergencyforperiodbetween19Juneand18July.BNPBhandedoverthedisasteron-callfunds ofIDR250million (USD19thousand)and theMinistry ofSocialAffairsdistributed cashassistanceforthefamiliesofthedeceasedatIDR15million(USD1,124) perperson andIDR2.5million (USD187)forinjuredpersons.

3.HeadofSangihe DistrictinNorthSulawesi declaredemergencybetween21Juneand4July.BNPBdistributed theironcallfunds ofIDR350million (USD26thousand) andtheMinistryofSocialAffairsdistributedcashassistanceforthefamilyofthedeceasedatIDR15million (USD1,124)perperson.

4.Inthedeclaredemergencyareas,theMinistry ofSocialAffairswillalsoprovidemealsfortheevacueesthreetimesaday,untiltheemergencyresponsephaseisdeactivated.

1. Continuemonitoringof:a) Weatherpatternsandrelateddisasters, itsimpact

onlivelihoods andnutritionalandhealthstatusinatriskandaffectedareas

b) Accesstofoodandpurchasingpower,throughimpactsoninfrastructure,foodprices(riceandothercommodities) andwages/income

c) Pestanddiseaseoutbreaks

2. Shareinformation totheatriskandaffectedcommunities:a) Accurateandactionableweatherinformationb) Earlywarningsforunusual flooding andlandslides

3. Provideservices atcommunity levelforatriskandaffectedareas:a) Improveirrigationsystemtopreparefor

managementofexcesswaterb) Agriculturalextension servicestoprovideadviceon

mostappropriatecropvarietiesc) Improvemanagementofsanitationfacilities

RecommendedAction

Page 24: Food Security Monitoring Bulletinun.or.id/elnino/images/download/FSMB-3rd-Edition-Special-Focus-La-Nina-en-comp.pdfKey messages 1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September

CentralBureauofStatistics(BPS)Jl.Dr.Sutomo 6-8Jakarta10710IndonesiaT.62-213841195,3842508,3810291|Fax.62-213857046

CenterofClimate,Agroclimate,andMaritimeClimateAgencyforMeteorology,ClimatologyandGeophysicsJl.Angkasa I,No.2Kemayoran |Jakarta10720IT.62-214246321|F.62-21 4246703

NationalDisasterManagementAuthority(BNPB)Gedung GRAHABNPBJalan Pramuka Kav.38,JakartaTimurT.62-2121281200|Fax.62-2121281200

WorldFoodProgrammeWisma Keiai 9thfloor|Jl.Jend Sudirman Kav.3|Jakarta10220T.62-215709004|F.62-215709001|[email protected]

FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsMenaraThamrin Building7thfloor|Jl.MH.Thamrin Kav.3|10250JakartaT.62-29802300|F.62-3900282|[email protected]

MinistryofAgricultureJl.RMHarsono No.3Ragunan |Jakarta12550T.62-217816652|F.62-217806938

RemoteSensingApplicationCentreIndonesiaNationalInstituteofAeronauticsandSpaceJl.Kalisari No.8,Pekayon,Pasar Rebo |Jakarta13710I T.62-218710065|Fax.62-218722733