Market opportunities for peaches and nectarines

Department ofPrimary Industries andRegional Development

1055

/20

Market opportunities for peaches and

nectarines1 from Western Australia

Introduction

Peach and nectarine production extends from Manjimup to Gingin, with Perth Hills

being the major production region. Global demand for this group of fruits is

increasing as evidenced by the rise in imports during the past decade. Green field

developments with the possibility of production expansion and improved market

access protocols arising from free trade agreements place WA in a position to supply

this growing global market.

Export opportunities are analysed based on the current production season and the

capacity to supply during this season. Australian imports occur during the third

quarter2. It is uncertain to what extent the production season in WA could be

extended. According to experts in the field, production in September is a possibility;

however, production any earlier than this is highly improbable. On this basis, there is

likely to be limited opportunity to displace imported product with WA-grown produce.

Export market opportunities

Opportunities identified in this report are based on the analysis of current and

historical import trends in international markets. The analysis considers time trends

on import quantity, value, price, competitive tariffs for Australia, market concentration

of imports, comparative distance advantage, seasonal opportunities, extent of

competition and non-tariff market access barriers.

A snapshot summary of peach and nectarine trade is provided in the table below.

1 HS code 080930 2 The numbers are based on calendar year, not financial year. Hence, the four quarters are Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep and Oct-Dec.

Snapshot of peach and nectarine trade (2018)

Global import value $3.37 billion Global import quantity 1,957,655 tons Top five exporters Spain, Italy, Chile, US, Greece Top five importers Germany, France, Russia UK, Italy Share of top five exporters 66% Share of top five importers 43% WA’s production season Nov-Feb Share of Australia in global exports3 1.8% Position of Australia in global exports 12 2 year CAGR of global import value 4.3% 2 year CAGR of global import quantity -1.8% 2 year CAGR of global import unit value 3.9% 5 year CAGR of global import value 3.9% 5 year CAGR of global import quantity 1.0% 5 year CAGR of global import unit value 6.2%

Overview of selected markets Market with highest import value Germany Market with highest import price Japan Market with highest growth in import value (2 years) China Market with highest growth in import quantity (2 years) China Market with highest growth in import price (2 years) Indonesia Market with highest growth in import value (5 years) Indonesia Market with highest growth in import quantity (5years) Indonesia Market with highest growth in import price (5 years) Kuwait

3 Share increased to 2.3% and position is 9th in 2019.

Other features of export markets Global imports of peaches and nectarines are slowly increasing. A few countries are selected from the list of importers based on their import value and price. Some countries (such as Vietnam) are excluded due to lack of reliable information. Import growth shows a gradual shift from the traditional importing countries to new destinations. European countries are traditionally the major importers of peaches and nectarines. Germany is the largest importer followed by France. Import growth is either declining or stagnated in most of these traditional importers. Average prices of imports are not very promising, but there are specific premium segments - though not for large volume. Spain is the major supply competitor in these countries. Australian export of peaches and nectarines grew by 50% between 2017 and 2018 reaching $50m, led by Victoria. WA has just under 1% share in national exports. WA peaches are exported at slightly higher price than the national average, while WA nectarines are sold at a price of almost two thirds of that of the national average. China is the major destination for Australian product, while Singapore is the major importer of WA product. Detailed analysis of the importing markets indicate that Western Australia has a distance as well as tariff disadvantage in most of the European and American countries compared to competitors. Their usual heavy importing period is the third quarter, which is beyond the supply capability from current production locations in Western Australia. However, considering the large volume imported globally, it would be worth exploring the possibility of exporting from WA in the first quarter, specifically targeting the premium segment, if it is cost competitive. Asian and Middle East countries traditionally are not heavy importers of peaches and nectarines. Asian countries are not present among the top ten importers. However, imports are growing very fast in Asian countries and the prices of imports are promising in most cases. Countries such as China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are major Asian importers and Japan and Indonesia pay high price for imports. The major import season for China and Hong Kong is the first quarter, which coincides with the WA supply season. Moreover, Australia has distance and tariff advantage in some of the Asian countries compared to selected competitors. No major market access issues prevail in any major potential markets. Accessibility is unknown in some markets, and import protocols may yet need to be developed. More details on potential importing countries are given in Appendix – I.

Import replacement opportunities Australia imported approximately 2 300 tonnes of peaches and nectarines valued at $15m in 2017/18. Peaches and nectarines are the eighth biggest fruit import category to Australia. Globally, Australia is not a large importer of this category of fruits.

NSW is the major importing state, with about 65% share in import value and 56% share in imported quantity. Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland are the other importing states. Imports occur mainly from June to August.

Details on import analysis

Australian imports of peaches and nectarines are declining, even though this is the

eighth largest fruit import category.

Trends suggest a decline in both value and quantity in all states, prices increased in

New South Wales and Western Australia. Even with a 38% decline in quantity, price

increased by just five percent, leaving a 34% decline in value.

Most of the imports are from June to August, with almost one third of the imports

during June. Imports start in May and end in September. Hence extending the

production season to replace import may be further investigated.

South Australia, Tasmania and Northern Territory are not importing peaches and

nectarines from overseas based on the current trade information. Imports by other

states could be supplied to these states, or there is no out of season consumption in

these states.

More details on the imports by Australia and by different states are given in

Appendix–II.

Replacement of supply from the Eastern states

Very few peaches and nectarines are supplied to WA from the East through Market

City, and did not trigger the threshold criteria for this analysis (minimum $1m worth of

trade). Information on supply direct to supermarkets from the Eastern states was not

available. Data from Perth’s wholesale market reveals that early season product

from Carnarvon received a higher price - in line with that of Eastern state products.

Agents at the wholesale market confirmed this.

Conclusions

Analysis of current domestic and export markets helped in approximating the

potential demand opportunities for peaches and nectarines in both of these markets.

The domestic market may not have the capacity to absorb a large amount of fruit

even if it is an off-season supply. Current import levels are just around $10-$15

million and declining, in terms of both quantity and value. WA would need an

additional production of around 2 000 tonnes from May to September (June to

August is the heavy import period) to replace the imports completely. Extending the

season to produce high quality fruits from May to August is unlikely.

To the contrary, the trends in international import markets are promising in both

quantity and value. Even though there are individual variations, European markets

are the major consuming regions of peaches and nectarines. Consumption growth is

declining in that region, while it is increasing in South East Asia. Improved market

access and reduced tariffs may help in accessing those emerging markets.

Expanding the market to China, which is the biggest destination for the Australian

industry at 43% of the exports, might help WA industry. The attraction of the China,

despite being a protocol market is that it is an expanding premium market.

APPENDIX-I

Export market opportunities- details

Australian exports 2018

Australian destination0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

Australian export unit value$/kg

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0

Australian export value in $m

Bahrain

Canada

China

France

French Polynesia

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Italy

Kuwait

Lebanon

Malaysia

Netherlands

New Caledonia

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

United Arab Emirates

20.9

0.3

1.8

0.1

0.1

4.7

0.1

0.3

0.1

1.8

0.0

2.5

0.2

0.2

1.0

0.8

3.4

5.9

0.3

0.3

5.4

3.3

4.8

4.2

5.7

3.1

4.6

3.6

4.4

5.4

3.2

2.4

3.5

8.1

3.1

2.7

3.0

2.3

4.0

3.5

4.6

3.2

Australia exported 13,466tonnes of peaches andnectarines valued at $50m in2018. Of these 58% byquantity and 56% by value arenectarines and rest arepeaches. Nectarines areexported at an FOB price of$3.56/kg and peaches at$4/kg.

China is the largestdestination for Australianexports. Victoria is the majorexporting state with a share of86% nationally, followed byNew South Wales.

Exports have grown by 50%from about $34m to $50between 2017 and 2018.Growth is mainly from theexport to China, which hasalmost 42% share in nationalexport value.

Australian export unit value$/kgAustralian export value in $m

WA exports 2018

WA destination0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0

WA export unit value$/kg

0.0 0.1 0.2

WA export value in $m

Brunei Darussalam

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Malaysia

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

United Arab Emirates

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.3

2.8

3.7

3.9

3.2

2.8

3.5

2.6

WA exported 123 tonnes of peaches and nectarines at a value of $0.4m in 2018, forming just under 1% of the exports nationally. Of these, 39% by value and 52% by quantity arenectarines and the rest are peaches. Nectarines are exported at an FOB price of $2.42/kg and peaches at $4.15/kg. Prices of nectarines are 32% lower than the Australian average,while that of peaches are 4% higher than the national average.

Singapore is the major export destination wth a share of 64%. UAE, the major destination for WA strawberries, is the second major destination for peaches and nectarines. WA does nothave a presence in China which is the largest export destination nationally.

WA export unit value$/kgWA export value in $m

Global exports 2018

Exporting countries

Spain

Italy

Chile

United States

of America

Greece

China

Turkey

Jordan

France

Uzbekistan

Netherlands

Australia

South Africa

Hong Kong,

China

Germany

Serbia

Lithuania

Japan

Portugal

Egypt

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

Value ($m) of exports of top 20 countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Unit value of export ($/kg)

1,250

257

184 180131 121 117

71 66 58 56 53 51 45 38 35 27 21 21 20

1.42

1.91

2.55

12.41

1.69 1.641.91

0.82 0.92

2.57

0.90

2.28

3.82

2.762.35

1.991.48

0.67

1.951.57

Top 20 exporters

Spain is the largest exporter of peaches and nectarines. Japan has the highest export price among the top twenty exporters, which is more than triple the average price received byAustralia. Australia ranks 12th in export value and receives the second highest price after Japan.

20 1,250

Global imports 2018

Importing countries

Germany France Russia UK Italy Poland USA Netherlan..Canada Belarus Belgium HongKong

China Switzerla..Portugal Mexico Taiwan Austria Romania Lithuania0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Import value ($m)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Unit value of import ($/kg)

532.7

290.9278.0

181.0 176.6

148.0130.3

113.9101.7

88.4 88.0 83.5 78.2 72.2 72.0 63.8 61.4 53.5 50.8 47.4

1.951.85

1.26

2.28

1.53 1.49

3.44

2.04

2.76

1.51

2.14

3.41

3.61

2.53

1.07

2.06

4.14

2.01

1.14

0.95

Top twenty importers

Germany is the largest importer of peaches and nectarines by value. Highest price is paid by Taiwan among the top twenty importers. Australia has a trade surplus as our exports aremore than imports.

Import trends of selected countriesImporters

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Imported value AUDm

0K 50K 100K 150K 200K 250K 300K

Imported quantity (t)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Unit value AUD/kg

Australia

Canada

China

France

Germany

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Japan

Kuwait

Malaysia

Mauritius

New Zealand

Singapore

Switzerland

Taiwan

Thailand

UAE

UK

USA

101.7

290.9

532.7

181.0

130.3

13.0

78.2

83.5

12.8

15.1

72.2

61.4

26.3

1.3

2.0

5.7

1.2

1.7

1.1

157,112

272,640

36,791

21,672

24,499

28,504

14,842

11,408

79,236

37,915

2,204

3,898

1,607

3,349

202

282

444

587

276

5.9

2.8

3.6

1.9

2.0

3.4

6.6

7.2

3.3

3.5

2.7

2.9

4.5

2.5

4.1

4.1

2.3

2.3

3.4

A few countries are selected from the list of importers based on their import value and price. Countries listed above import more than $1m worth of peaches and nectarines. Somecountries (such as Viet Nam) are excluded due to lack of reliable information.

Apart from Japan and Australia; Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand are premium importers. Germany and France are the major importing countries. Among South east Asiancountries, quantity of imports are high in Hong Kong, China and Taiwan.

Import trends of selected countries (contd..)Importers

0% 500%

CAGR value 2 years

0% 100% 200%

CAGR value 5 years

0% 500%

CAGR quantity 2 years

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150%

CAGR quantity 5 years

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

CAGR price 2 years

-50% 0% 50% 100%

CAGR price 5 years

Australia

Canada

China

France

Germany

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Japan

Kuwait

Malaysia

Mauritius

New Zealand

Singapore

Switzerland

Taiwan

Thailand

UAE

UK

USA

World

546.4%

-21.2%

30.1%

75.6%

64.3%

21.3%

20.2%

13.5%

-3.1%

-0.6%

-2.0%

-0.9%

-3.8%

-9.9%

-1.4%

-5.9%

5.0%

7.9%

4.3%

166.3%

21.6%

15.0%

48.6%

12.7%

13.6%

33.3%

13.6%

-1.8%

2.3%

2.9%

2.4%

8.5%

0.7%

4.2%

2.4%

3.9%

607.5%

-38.3%

-13.3%

-26.0%

-14.2%

-10.1%

-10.4%

36.0%

17.2%

57.3%

23.1%

-8.6%

-4.1%

-3.2%

-1.5%

-4.6%

-1.8%

9.0%

5.8%

102.0%

-11.7%

13.9%

20.5%

10.3%

29.1%

-5.3%

-1.3%

-2.4%

-7.2%

-3.4%

-2.0%

1.1%

7.2%

9.5%

0.5%

1.0%

13.2%

31.8%

30.3%

23.3%

12.3%

13.1%

-1.6%

8.0%

1.8%

2.4%

6.7%

5.1%

3.7%

3.1%

3.3%

1.7%

4.5%

3.9%

21.5%

49.8%

96.6%

11.0%

-8.6%

-4.4%

-2.4%

6.0%

3.7%

8.4%

4.5%

4.2%

4.4%

2.0%

3.9%

6.5%

5.0%

9.7%

5.0%

6.2%

China is a fast growing import market. Import price is growing in Indonesia and Kuwait. However quantity of imports declined in Kuwait. Value growth in the short term is more in Asiancountries (except Taiwan and Thailand) while it is either declining or stagnant in European countries and America.

Global positionImporters Top 5 importers

0.00% 4.00% 8.00% 12.00% 16.00%

Share in world import (%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Rank

Germany Spain (74%), Italy (201%), Chile (2%), France (2%), Greece (1%)

France Spain (88%), Germany (4%), Morocco (3.5%), Italy (2%), France (0.9%)

UK Spain (57%), South Africa (19%), Germany (9%), Italy (6%), Chile (4%)

USA Chile (99.8%)

Canada US (77%), Chile (17%), Spain (2.7%), Australia (2.4%), Argentina(0.2%)

Hong Kong Chile (49%), Japan (26%), Australia (16%), USA (4%), China (4%)

China Chile (69%), Australia (30%, Spain (1.3%)

Switzerland Spain (66%), Italy (22%), France (9%), Chile (2%), Morocco (1%)

Taiwan US(78%), Chile (15%), Japan (6%), Australia (.4%), New Zealand (.2%)

UAE South Africa (28%), Australia (25%), Tunisia (16%), Spain (9%), Jordan (5%)

Kuwait Lebanon (54%), Australia (17%), Jordan (11%), South Africa (8%), US(3%)

Singapore Australia(42%), USA (21%), Spain (12%), China (10%), Japan (7%)

Malaysia Australia (57%), Spain (12%), US (9%), Korea (5%), Japan (5%)

Japan US (100%)

New Zealand US(100%)

Indonesia Australia (36%), US (33%), China (17%), Korea (8%), Japan (4%)

Mauritius South Africa (69%), Spain (30%), Turkey (1%)

Thailand Japan (51%), Australia (25%), US (12%), China (10%), Korea (2%)

15.80%

8.60%

5.40%

3.90%

3.00%

2.50%

2.30%

2.10%

1.80%

0.80%

0.40%

0.40%

0.20%

0.10%

0.10%

0.00%

1

2

4

7

9

12

13

14

17

28

40

37

50

69

71

72

73

77

No Asian or Middle east countries are within the top ten importers. China and Hong Kong have a combined share of almost 5% in world imports.

CompetitionImporters Suppliers during 1st qtr Suppliers during 2nd quarter Suppliers during 3rd quarter Suppliers during 4th quarter

Canada Chile (93%), Australia (5%) USA (98%) USA (95%), Spain (5%)

China Chile (76%), Australia (23%), Spain (2%) Chile (93%), Australia (7%) Australia (99%)

France Spain (42%), South Africa (25%), Chile (11%).Netherlands (10%) Spain (85%), Morocco (7%), Germany (5%) Spain (92%), Italy (3%), Germany (3%) Spain (81%), South Africa (4%), Italy (4%), France (3%)

Germany Chile (55%), South Africa (23%), Netherlands(13%), Italy (7%), Spain (2%) Spain (83%), Italy (11%), Chile (2%) Spain (72%), Italy (25%) Spain (81%), Italy (15%)

HongKong Chile (75%), Australia (21%) Japan (36%), Chile (32%), Australia (10%), China (6%),

Spain (5%) Japan (74%), US (11%), South Korea (7%) Australia (66%), Japan (16%), US (4%), South Korea(4%)

Indonesia Australia (100%) US (44%), China (43%), Australia (9%) US (58%), South Korea (22%), Japan (12%) Australia (72%), China (17%), South Korea (4%), US (4%)

Japan . US (100%) US (100%)

Kuwait Australia (76%), South Africa (23%) Egypt (59%), Jordan (22%), US (4%), Tunisia (4%) Tunisia (61%), Jordan (18%), Lebanon (13%) Australia (55%), South Africa (18%), Jordan (13%),Lebanon (6%), Iran (4%)

Malaysia Australia (91%), South Africa (6%) Spain (39%), US (25%), Turkey (12%), Australia (7%) Spain (26%), US (23%), South Korea (20%), Japan (17%),China (10%) Australia (86%), China (5%), Chile (3%)

Mauritius South Africa (100%) South Africa (89%), Spain (7%) Spain (92%), Turkey (4%) South Africa (88%), Spain (11%)

NewZealand . US (100%) US (100%)

Singapore Australia (94%), New Zealand (5%) US (42%), Spain (26%), China (10%), Australia (9%) US (34%), Spain (20%), Japan (15%), China (15%), SouthKorea (19%) Australia (73%), China (16%), US (5%)

Switzerla..Chile (90%), Spain (3%), South Africa (3%),Australia (3%) Spain (80%), Italy (13%), France (4%) Spain (57%), Italy (29%), France (13%) Spain (63%), Italy (21%), Australia (10%), South Africa(5%)

Taiwan Chile (95%), Australia (3%) US (80%), Chile (17%), Japan (4%) US (93%), Japan (7%) US (100%)

Thailand Australia (100%) Japan (53%), USA (45%) Japan (74%), China (12%), US (11%) Australia (76%), China (18%), US (4%)

UK South Africa (65%), Chile (26%), Germany (4%),Netherlands (3%)

Spain (64%), germany (17%), Egypt (5%), South Africa(4%) Spain (74%), Germany (13%), Italy (11%) South Africa (50%), Spain (44%)

USA Chile (100%) Chile (64%), Mexico (21%), Canada (14%) Canada (100%) Chile (99%), Spain (1%)

Chile is the major competitor during WA supply period. South Africa is also a major supplier during this period.

Seasonal imports (1st and 2nd quarters)

Importers 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

Unit price during 1st quarter

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

Unit price during 2nd quarter

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

Import value during 1st quarter

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

Import value during 2nd quarter

Canada

China

France

Germany

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Japan

Kuwait

Malaysia

Mauritius

New Zealand

Singapore

Switzerland

Taiwan

Thailand

UAE

UK

USA

46.0

61.9

110.4

15.5

12.8

22.8

1.8

0.3

0.0

1.1

2.3

0.0

0.0

4.4

1.0

7.3

0.2

0.0

2.4

3.5

3.3

2.3

3.8

5.9

0.0

3.6

3.4

2.8

0.0

3.5

4.1

2.5

4.6

0.0

3.5

3.3

129.2

155.1

33.8

29.5

12.5

34.8

5.0

8.5

0.3

0.4

4.6

0.7

0.0

0.3

3.0

0.1

0.0

0.4

3.0

3.0

2.4

2.6

3.9

8.0

7.1

2.1

3.9

2.7

3.4

5.4

3.1

4.6

4.0

0.0

2.6

2.6

USA is the largest importer by value during WA supply period followed by china. Imports from USA become close to zero during second quarter.

Import value during 1st quarterImport value during 2nd quarterUnit price during 1st quarterUnit price during 2nd quarter

Seasonal imports (3rd and 4th quarters)

Importers 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Unit price during 3rd quarter

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0

Unit price during 4th quarter

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Import value during 3rd quarter

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Import value during 4th quarter

Canada

China

France

Germany

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Japan

Kuwait

Malaysia

Mauritius

New Zealand

Singapore

Switzerland

Taiwan

Thailand

UAE

UK

USA

78

154

340

44

24

41

43

0

0

2

7

1

0

1

5

1

0

0

1.9

2.4

0.0

1.6

1.8

8.9

7.9

7.3

1.5

4.3

2.4

2.8

5.5

2.2

4.8

4.0

0.0

0.5 14.4

36.0

8.5

30.5

8.3

8.2

3.3

0.2

0.0

1.5

1.2

0.0

0.2

2.5

0.3

1.3

0.1

0.0

1.0

2.9

5.9

1.7

4.9

4.4

0.0

2.1

2.9

3.1

0.0

4.0

2.9

3.9

5.3

0.0

3.0

3.7

UK and Canada import through out the season. UK's highest import is during the 4th quarter. Germany, which is the largest importer in the world, imports majority of the product duringthe third quarter.

Import value during 3rd quarterImport value during 4th quarterUnit price during 3rd quarterUnit price during 4th quarter

Percentage imports during different quartersImporters

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

% import during 1st quarter

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

% Import During 2nd Qtr

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

% Import During 3rd Qtr

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

% Import During 4th Qtr

Canada

China

France

Germany

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Japan

Kuwait

Malaysia

Mauritius

New Zealand

Singapore

Switzerland

Taiwan

Thailand

UK

USA

World

15.3%

82.4%

56.2%

22.0%

41.3%

27.8%

29.1%

11.4%

15.4%

13.3%

88.0%

11.1%

1.0%

2.4%

8.0%

1.4%

33.2%

44.0%

29.0%

10.4%

26.0%

18.0%

32.8%

12.5%

10.0%

22.0%

20.1%

41.0%

19.6%

11.1%

20.2%

29.9%

6.6%

0.3%

43.1%

53.0%

63.0%

29.4%

37.1%

82.0%

48.8%

25.3%

28.3%

78.0%

34.3%

57.1%

67.0%

61.4%

45.6%

52.2%

0.0%

0.0%

11.0%

14.9%

10.4%

21.0%

33.9%

16.6%

12.1%

20.9%

11.0%

8.4%

3.0%

6.0%

4.0%

0.4%

2.1%

6.8%

More than half of the total world imports are during the third quarter. Third quarter is the major import season of Germany, which is the largest importer in the world. Lowest import isduring the 4th quarter with a share of just under 7%.

Of the major Asian importers, China and Hong Kong import more than half during the first quarter which is WA's major exporting season. However, Taiwan imports mostly during thirdquarter.

Tariff details (2018)Importers Top 5 importers Tariff range Tariff for competitors

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%

Tariff for Australia

Canada US (77%), Chile (17%), Spain (2.7%), Australia (2.4%), Argentina(0.2%) 0-3.8% 0%

China Chile (69%), Australia (30%, Spain (1.3%) 0-70% Chile 0%, Spain 10%

France Spain (88%), Germany (4%), Morocco (3.5%), Italy (2%), France (0.9%) 0-17.6% 0%

Germany Spain (74%), Italy (201%), Chile (2%), France (2%), Greece (1%) 0-17.6% 0%

Hong Kong Chile (49%), Japan (26%), Australia (16%), USA (4%), China (4%) 0% 0%

Indonesia Australia (36%), US (33%), China (17%), Korea (8%), Japan (4%) 0-5% US 5%, others 0%

Japan US (100%) 0-6% 6%

Kuwait Lebanon (54%), Australia (17%), Jordan (11%), South Africa (8%), US(3%) 0% 0%

Malaysia Australia (57%), Spain (12%), US (9%), Korea (5%), Japan (5%) 0-5% Spain, US - 5%, Korea and Japan (5%)

Mauritius South Africa (69%), Spain (30%), Turkey (1%) 0% 0%

New Zealand US(100%) 0% 0%

Singapore Australia(42%), USA (21%), Spain (12%), China (10%), Japan (7%) 0% 0%

Switzerland Spain (66%), Italy (22%), France (9%), Chile (2%), Morocco (1%) 1.90% 1.90%

Taiwan US(78%), Chile (15%), Japan (6%), Australia (.4%), New Zealand (.2%) 0-50% 20%

Thailand Japan (51%), Australia (25%), US (12%), China (10%), Korea (2%) 0-40% US 40%, others 0%

UAE South Africa (28%), Australia (25%), Tunisia (16%), Spain (9%), Jordan (5%) 0% 0%

UK Spain (57%), South Africa (19%), Germany (9%), Italy (6%), Chile (4%) 0-17.6% 0%

USA Chile (99.8%) 0% 0%

0.0%

0.0%

17.6%

17.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.9%

20.0%

0.0%

0.0%

17.6%

0.0%

Australia has a tariff disadvantage in major European countries such as Germany, France and the UK. Compared to USA, there is a tariff advantage in some of the Asian countries.

Market concentration, distance advantage and market access

Importers

0.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.10Market concentration

-15K -10K -5K 0K 5K 10KDistance advantage

CanadaChinaFrance

GermanyHong KongIndonesiaJapanKuwaitMalaysiaMauritius

New ZealandSingaporeSwitzerlandTaiwanThailandUAEUKUSA

0.63

0.780.58

0.300.27

1.000.340.36

0.561.00

0.250.49

0.640.35

0.180.38

1.00

-12,762

-13,341-12,048

-12,707

-11,434

-5,886

-1,954

-8,812

7,974

5,0725,002

2,270

3,096

7,3294,407

6,247

-824

518

Market concentration and distance advantage

Herfindahl Index is a measure of market concentration. It ranges from 0 to 1. Value closer to 1 indicates less competition and increase in marketpower. Value closer to 0 indicates more number of competitors in the market. Concentration is high in the US, Japan and New Zealand becauseof a single supplier in the market.

Distance advantage is calculated by deducting the average distance of supplying countries to the destination market and distance of thedestination market from Perth.

Western Australia has a distance disadvantage in all of the European, American and Middle east countries.

Importers Status

Canada Available

China Available

France Unknown

Germany Available

Hong Kong Available

Indonesia Available

Japan Unknown

Kuwait Available

Malaysia Available

Mauritius Not known

New Zealand Unknown

Singapore Available

Switzerland Not Known

Taiwan Available

Thailand Available

UAE Available

UK Available

USA Unknown

Market access

APPENDIX-II

Import replacement opportunities - details

Monthly imports of peaches and nectarines to Australia

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Average

0

2

4

6

Value ($m)

5.1

6.3

2.9

0.1

0.0

0.0

3.5

5.0

3.2 3.4

1.8

0.3

3.8

3.5 4.1

1.6

0.0

0.1

0.9

4.9

3.9 4.6

2.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

1.6

4.6

Value

0

500

1000

Quantity (t) 823

534

4

449

1018

813

586

34

354

649

612

597

101

122

215

712

642

669

223

4122

339

793

689

Quantity

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

0K

5K

10K

Price ($/t)

613366527156

6537

6150

6249

65047752

5012

5247

5255

81988664

83489371

7420

5776

5502 69457690

715683489371

6323

5724

5669

Price

Peaches and nectarine imports to Australia through different states (2017/18)

WA$2.5m16.7%

VIC$2.1m14.0%

NSW$9.8m64.6%

QLD$0.7m4.6%

Value ($15m)

WA350t15.4%

VIC489t21.4%

NSW1,268t55.6%

QLD174t7.6%

Quantity (2280t)

Australia

NSW

QLD VIC WA

$0/t

$500/t

$1000/t

$1500/t

$2000/t

$2500/t

$3000/t

$3500/t

$4000/t

$4500/t

$5000/t

$5500/t

$6000/t

$6500/t

$7000/t

$7500/t

$8000/t

Price ($/t)

Australia$6632/t

QLD$4015/t

VIC$4343/t

WA$7230/t

NSW$7708/t

Price ($6632/t)

Comments

New South Wales is the largest importer ofpeaches and nectaines to Australia, with a shareof 65% by value of the national imports. NSW isfollowed by Western Australia in import value andby Victoria in import quantity.

Highest price of import is paid by New SouthWales at $7708/t which is 16% higher thanaverage import price of Australia. Lowest price ispaid by Queensland, which is 39% lower than theaverage Australian import price.

Monthly peaches and nectarine imports to Australia (2017/18) - source details

China New Zealand US

0

200

400

600

800

Quantity (t)

400 0 0 0 0 0 120 0 0 2 0 0

603

712

215

101

597

0 0

Quantity

China New Zealand US

0

2

4

Value ($m)

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

3.4

4.1

1.6

0.0

0.0

0.9

4.9

Value

China New Zealand US

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

0K

5K

10K

Price ($/t)

2138

9371

8348

5723

5776

7420 8664

8198

Price

Comments

Australia imported about 2300t of peachesand nectarines valued at $15m at anaverage price of $6632/tonne in 2017-18

New South Wales is the biggest importerwith a share of more than half by bothquantity and value.

The US is almost the sole supplier (99%)with negligible imports from New Zealandand China.

Eighty three percent of the imports are fromJune to August. Import starts in May andfinishes by September.

Value and quantity of imports declined by34% and 38% resepectively during the pastthree years, with a price increase of 5%.

Trends show a declining pattern.

Monthly peaches and nectarine imports to NSW

0

100

200

300

400

500

Quantity (t)

434

316

4

222

397

329

269

21

418

327 352

56

122

152

354

341

351

131

4122

208

390

332

Quantity

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Average

0

1

2

3

Value ($m)

2.8

2.2

0.0

1.4

2.5

2.0

2.3

0.2

1.2

2.2

1.8

3.2

0.5

0.1

0.0

1.2

2.4

2.3

2.8

0.9

0.00.1

0.00.1

1.3

2.4

2.0

Value

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Average

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

0K

5K

10K

Price ($/t) 63766859

7156

7532

6087

6232

5925

8740

7981

47945282

5485

9022

9162

83489371

8107

6780

6868 8046

8001

715683489371

7532

6329

6098

6093

Price

Monthly peaches and nectarine imports to NSW (2017/18) - supplier's details

0

100

200

300

400

Quantity (t)

20 122

352

56

152

354

321

Quantity

China New Zealand USA

0

1

2

3

Value ($m)

0.1

3.2

0.5

1.2

2.4

2.3

ValueJUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

0K

5K

10K

Price ($/t)

2,198

83489371

9022

9162

8107

6780

7157

Price

Comments

NSW imported about 1300 tonnes ofpeaches and nectarines worth about $10mat an average price of $7708/tonne in2017-18

Imports are mainly from June to August,with a share of 80%. Almost one third of theimports are during June.

US is the major supplier with 98% share inimpot value. Negligible imports from NewZealand and China.

Nominal value of imports declined by 10%and quantity by 26% during the past threeyears. Nominal price has increased by 22%during this period.

Monthly peaches and nectarine imports to Western Australia

0

50

100

150

200

Quantity (t) 142

80

178

204

125

13

96

117

82

31

106

82

116

41

127

134

Quantity

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Average

0.0

0.5

1.0

Value ($m) 1.0

0.50.7

1.11.3

0.8

0.1

0.3

0.60.7 0.8

0.30.3

0.70.5

0.9

0.3

0.80.8

ValueJUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

0K

5K

10K

Price ($/t) 6811

6799

6476

6445

6249

66717376

58726408

6253

9472

8394

6069

61746596 7651

7523

6139

6342

6366

Price

Comments

Western Australia imported about 350tonnes of peaches and nectarines worthmore than $2.5m at an average price of$7230/tonne in 2017-18.

The US is the sole source of imports.

June to August, where 80% of the fruits areimported, is the major import period. Almostone third of the import is in June.

Nominal value of imports have declined by45% and quantity by 50% during the pastthree years. Price increased by 11% duringthis period.

Monthly peaches and nectarine imports to Victoria

0

100

200

300

Quantity (t)

140

83

282

157

162

99100 118

6

166185

140

45

182

148

Quantity

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Average

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Value ($m)

0.8

0.5

0.5

1.7

1.1

0.6

0.2

0.4

0.5 0.6

0.0

0.1

0.9

0.5 0.7

0.3

1.0

0.7

Value

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Average

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

0K

2K

4K

6K

8K

Price ($/t)

5827

6049

5978

7166

3402

5748

4518

4535 5,375

7,388

4,545

5,242

2,763

4764

61446448

5490

4729

Price

Comments

Victoria imported about 490 tonnesof peaches and nectarines worthmore than $2m at an average priceof $4343/tonne in 2017-18. Victoriais the second biggest importer byquantity.

The US is the sole source ofimports.

About 95% of the import is fromJune to August. Negligible importsin May and September.

Nominal value of imports havedeclined by 54% and quantity by33% during the past three years.Price also declined by 31% duringthis period.

Monthly peaches and nectarine imports to Queensland

0

50

100

150

Quantity (t)

107

55

161

122

3035

68

45

8

86

35

61

32

94

75

Quantity

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Average

0.0

0.5

1.0

Value ($m)

0.5

0.30.4

1.0

0.7

0.1

0.10.10.2 0.3

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.4

ValueJUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

0K

2K

4K

6K

8K

Price ($/t) 4644

6165

7705

59205941

2559

380037203495

68157225

2200

41554673

6695

5752

39474530

Price

Comments

Queensland is not a major importer ofpeaches and nectarines, importedabout 175 tonnes of peaches andnectarines worth only $0.7m at anaverage price of $4025/tonne in2017-18.

The US was almost the single source ofimports.

June, July and August are the majorimporting months with a share ofalmost 95%.

Nominal value of imports have declinedby 76% and nominal price by 32%during the past three years. Quantityhas declined by 65% during this period.The trend in import seems to bedeclining, as evidenced by a decline inquantity even with a decline in price.

Trends in the imports by different states (2015/16 to 2017/18)

-80.00%

-60.00%

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

-34.22%

-76.14%

-54.30%

-44.72%

-9.83%

Value

-60.00%

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

-37.56%

-26.09%

-65.08%

-33.46%

-50.25%

Quantity

Australia NSW QLD VIC WA

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

-31.66% -31.32%

21.99%

11.12%5.35%

Price

New South WalesHighest value and quantity importer, with 65% of the imports by value. However, both quantity and value of importcame down by 26% and 10% respectively, while the price increased by 22%.

Western AustraliaWA is the second biggest importer by value with a share of 17%. However value and quantity of imports declined by45% and 50% respectively, while the price increased by 11%.

VictoriaVictoria is the third biggest importer by value and second biggest by quantity. Value, quantity and price of importdeclined in Victoria.

QueenslandValue, quantity and price of imports declined in Queensland as well. Queensland expreienced the highest decline inimports.

JUL$3.5m23.4%

SEP$1.6m10.5%

JUN$4.9m32.3%

AUG$4.1m27.2%

MAY$0.9m5.8%

Monthly imports (2017/18)