foresight activities in new zealand
TRANSCRIPT
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Foresight Activities in
New Zealand
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(c) Future Thinkers
Online Video Interviews: World Futures
(July 2008 and July 2009)
Online Video Conversations: Ideas about the Future (December
2008)
James Duncan Reference Library(October 2009)
A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand
Project 2058 – The Method
Part
1:
R
esearc
h a
nd
An
aly
sis
Part
II:
Sce
nari
os
Part
III
: Str
ate
gy
(d) State of New Zealand’s Future
The Future of Infrastructure in New Zealand*
Report 9 Government-funded Science Under the Microscope (2011)
A: Report 10 The State of New Zealand’s Resources*
The Future of Food and Agriculture*
The State Sector: Looking Forward*
(b) National AssetsReport 1 A National Sustainable
Development Strategy (2007)
(a) Government
Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies
(2007)
Report 3 Supporting Local Government (2008)
Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development (2008)
Report 5 The Common Elements of an NSDS (2008)
C: National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand*
B: Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058 (2008)
Report 7 Exploring the Shared Goals of Māori (2010)
Report 8 Effective Māori Representation in Parliament (2010)
A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand (2011)
Online Video Interviews:World Futures
(2008,2009 and 2010)
Online Video Conversations: Ideas about the Future
(2008)
James Duncan Reference Library(2009)
(c) Ideas
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A: Park ScenariosNational Park Year Est. Area (km2)
Abel Tasman 1942 225
Mount Cook 1953 707
Arthur's Pass 1929 1144
Egmont 1900 335
Fiordland 1952 12519
Kahurangi 1996 4520
Mount Aspiring 1964 3555
Nelson Lakes 1956 1018
Paparoa 1987 306
Raikiura 2002 1500
Te Urewera 1954 2127
Tongariro 1887 796
Westland Tai Poutini
1960 1175
Whanganui 1986 742
Total Area in Parks 30669
11%
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As at 1 January 2040
Ministry for Recreation
Marilyn Fitty ParkThis is a public park. It is open 24/7 and you can make as much noise here as you like. It is all about fitness, hobbies, horses, bike tracks & fishing etc. Area: 450 km2
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Ministry for Economic Development
Coal Range ParkThis is a private park. Rights to remove its contents, whether it be trees or minerals, are auctioned every two years by the Ministry.Area: 1500 km2
As at 1 January 2040
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As at 1 January 2040
Ministry for Conservation
Happy Hiking ParkThis is a public park. It is open 24/7 but you can only walk, you cannot bring anything with wheels onto this land. It is for current and future generations.Area: 800000 km2
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Ministry for the Wilderness
Wild River ParkThis is a private park. It is opened to the general public only one weekend a year. Flora, fauna and non-human landscapes are strictly protected by the Ministry.Area: 1200000 km2
As at 1 January 2040
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Strategic Knowledge
Data
Information
B: New Zealand Scenarios
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Source: Treasury (2009) Challenges and Choices New Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Statement. Page 32
Example 1: Long-term Fiscal Position 2009
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Example 2: Population
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Ethnicity
Ethnic Share Of New Zealand Population (percent)Adapted from Statistics New Zealand, projections from series 6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2006 2016 2026
%
European & Other Māori Asian Pacific
8%
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20
40
100
60
0
80
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Alpine zone
Tussock
Scrub, wetlands and dunes
Exotic grassland
Settlements and crops
Exotic forest
Native forest
Tota
l la
nd
are
a
(%)
Main periodof Maori
expansion
Main periodof European expansion
Example 3: Management of Resources
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Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options)
Quantity(Value Add)
Quality(Assurance)
WaterAir
Soil
Implications: Agriculture
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Example 4: Energy Generation
Share of Total Energy Generation in 1980
oil6%
gas16%
coal20%
hydropower26%
geothermal22%
other renewables
0%
biomass6%
Share of Total Primary Energy Generation in 2008
oil19%
gas26%
coal19%
hydropower12%
geothermal17%
biomass6%
other renewables
1%
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Example 5: Earthquakes
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Wild Cards 15. Pandemic
16. Tsunami17. Drought18. Volcanoes and
earthquakes19. Astronomical
events 20. Extreme weather21. Terrorism,
Biological and chemical warfare
Drivers of Change
8. Political systems and institutions
9. Economic models10. Management of
ecosystems and resources
11. Infrastructure12. Security and conflict13. Technology14. Information,
learning and ideas
Policy Levers
1. Climate change2. Population and
demographics
3. Ecosystems and biodiversity
4. Energy5. Resources6. Values and beliefs7. Justice and
freedom
Primary Drivers
21 Drivers of Change
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Well World
NZ
Well
Poor
Poor
FailFail
Fail
Four Scenarios
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Resulting Themes
Responses from Powerful counties– Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or– Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet
Choices for Small counties– Option 1: Ignore– Option 2: Become an intelligent country
• Adapt (monitor closely what is happening)• Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc)• Build alliances and networks• Try to shape (lead by example)
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C: StrategyNZ: Mapping our FutureWorkshop March 2011
Pre-Workshop Nation Dates (220 events) Workbook (Report 12) Future Studies Course (Dr Peter Bishop)
WorkshopPart 1 – Setting the global contextPart 2 – Where New Zealand is todayPart 3 – Preparing strategy mapsPart 4 – Presenting and judging strategy mapsPart 5 – Three workstreamsPart 6 – Presentations
to Members of Parliament Post-Workshop Strategy Map (Report 13) Feedback (Working paper) Reflections by Participants (e-book)
Nation Dates (440 events)
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1. Communicating our Messagewww.StrategyNZ.co.nz
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Strategy Pyramid
*
*
*
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Group Exercise
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Vision, Advantage, Scope model
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Worksheet 1
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Worksheet 1 cont…
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Worksheet 2
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The Designers
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• New Zealand's Upper House met from 1865 to 1951• Second debating chamber - New Zealand equivalent of the British
House of Lords • Now used for formal occasions, in particular for the state opening
of Parliament
The Legislative Council Chamber
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Resulting Themes
• A place where talent wants to live• Bi-cultural and Multi-cultural New Zealand• Youth need a voice• 3 year election cycle is too short• Constitutional Review (See www.EmpowernNZ.co.nz)
• Need for a strategy• Degree of urgency• Need for greater participation
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Legislative Council Chamber
Thank You