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FTTH/B Market Panorama in Europe
FTTH Council EUROPE
FTTH Council Europe Webinar – May 12th, 2021
Roland Montagne
Principal Analyst, IDATE
+33 (0)4 67 14 44 26
Eric Joyce
Chair,Market Intelligence Committee
FTTH Council Europe
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 2Enlighten your digital future!
Agenda
1. Study Background
2. General overview and main trends
3. Who is leading the race towards full-fibre ?
4. European Ranking - September 2020
5. Key conclusions
6. Appendix
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
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Study
Background
1
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Methodology
ACTIONS
Results
▪ Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe
▪ Provide a complete summary of the status of FTTH/B in Europe measured during September 2020
Bottom-up methodology
Scope
• Analysis of 39 countries
• Data per player for FTTH/B and
other fibre-based architectures
• Key parameters study: technical,
financial, business model,
figures
• Desk research
• Direct contacts with leading
players and IDATE partners
within countries
• Information exchange with FTTH
Council Europe members
• Both quantitative and qualitative
data
• Market status in the country
• Strategic approach of involved
players
® IDATE DigiWorld 2020
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 5Enlighten your digital future!
Important Definitions
Homes Passed
Sockets
Subscribers
® IDATE DigiWorld 2020
Potential number of Premises which a Service Provider has capability to
connect to an FTTH/FTTB network in a service area. This definition excludes
premises that cannot be connected without further installation of substantial
fibre plant to reach the subscriber’s location.
Premises which are connected to a network and are already subscribed
Connection point of a single fibre service provider inside/outside a premises.
Possibility to have multiple sockets if the location is serviced by multiple
FTTH network operators in either coordinated or competitive overbuild
situations.
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2
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FTTH/B Market
Panorama
General overview &
Main trends
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FTTH/B Market PanoramaKey Figures
FTTH/B European market evolution (EU39)In terms of Homes Passed and Subscribers (2012-2020)
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
82million FTTH/B
Subscribers 183million FTTH/B
Homes Passed
FTTH/B in EU39* countries
September 2020 Update
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
Coverage rate
EU27+UK: 43.8% ( Up 4.4% )
EU39 : 52.5% ( Up 2.6% )
Take-up rate
EU27+UK: 46.9% ( Up 3.6% )
EU39 : 44.9% ( Up 1.9% )
EU27 countries
Other European
countries under study
Detailed FTTH/B Market
Panorama scope
* EU39 detailed composition:
• EU27 + United Kingdom
• 4 CIS countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine
• Iceland, Israel, North Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey
16 20
30 36 44
52 61
70 82
57 70
95 111
123 133
146
163
183
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
December2012
December2013
December2014
September2015
September2016
September2017
September2018
September2019
September2020
Mill
ion
FTTH/B Subscribers FTTH/B Homes Passed
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 8Enlighten your digital future!
Evolution of FTTH/B Subscribers (million)EU27+UK vs EU39 comparison
▪ Teleworking and need for robust connectivity during the pandemic led to increased subscription levels in the whole region (YoY)
▪ EU27+UK countries account for more than 56% of FTTH/B Subscriptions, an increasing trend over the years (53.7% at Sept 2019)
▪ With 98.3 million Homes Passed, more than half (54%) of FTTH deployments are performed inside EU27+UK countries (mainly
intensified due to COVID19 pandemic)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)EU27+UK vs EU39 comparison
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B Market PanoramaMarket trends (EU27+UK vs. EU39)
16.120.2
30.0
35.7
43.9
52.0
60.7
70.3
81.9
6.1 8.012.3
15.119.7
24.9
31.1
37.7
46.1
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
December2012
December2013
December2014
September2015
September2016
September2017
September2018
September2019
September2020
Mill
ions
FTTH/B Subscribers - EU39 FTTH/B Subscribers - EU27+UK
57.2
70.3
95.1
110.7
123.3133.4
145.7
163.3
182.5
24.028.8
39.5 44.053.1
60.169.4
82.3
98.3
December2012
December2013
December2014
September2015
September2016
September2017
September2018
September2019
September2020
FTTH/B Homes Passed - EU39 FTTH/B Homes Passed - EU27+UK
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Around 400 FTTH/B initiatives identified in EU39 by September 2020
▪ Reinforced commitment of Altnets towards FTTH expansion (e.g. in UK, Germany)
▪ Based on share - 39% of Connected Homes are passed by incumbents, versus 41%
in 2019 – showing Altnets increasing their market share this year.
▪ Municipalities/utilities and alternative ISPs cover many remote and isolated areas.
Further enhanced with public funds and incentives.
Breakdown of FTTH/B Homes Passed by type of player (%)Data comparison between Dec. 2011 and Sept. 2020
Breakdown in terms of FTTH/B Homes Passed
Top 5 European countries
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B Market PanoramaAltnets drive the FTTH race; incumbents progressively redefining their full-fibre strategies
BACK IN 2011 SEPTEMBER 2020
21%
71%
8%
Incumbents Alternative ISPs Municipalities/Utilities
1
2
3
4
5
Russia 49 millions
France
Spain
Ukraine
Italy
21.4 millions
15.9 millions
11.5 millions
11 millions
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
39%
57%
4%
Incumbents Alternative ISPs Municipalities/Utilities
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 10Enlighten your digital future!
FTTH/B Market
Panorama
Who is leading the race
towards full-fibre ?
3
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© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 11Enlighten your digital future!
EU27+UK ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed over time (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2020
5 fastest growing markets in EU27+UK
(in both volume and %)Data from Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020 (in terms of FTTH/B
Homes Passed)
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B Homes Passed EU27+UK Ranking
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
1
2
3
4
5
+ 4.6M
+ 2.8M
+ 2.7M
+ 1.7M
+ 963k
+ 155 %
+ 66 %
+ 64 %
+ 49 %
+ 35 %
-
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ions September 2015 September 2016 September 2017 September 2018 September 2019 September 2020
21.4M
(+4.6M yoy)
11M
(+2.8M yoy)
6.8M
(+2.7M yoy)
4.2M
(+1.7M yoy)
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 12Enlighten your digital future!
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed, countries with > 2 million homes passedData comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2020 (in million homes)
5 fastest growing markets (in both volume and %)Data from Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020 (in terms of FTTH/B
Homes Passed)
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B Homes Passed EU39 Ranking
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
1
2
3
4
5
+ 4.6M
+ 2.8M
+ 2.7M
+ 1.7M
+ 1.2M
+ 155 %
+ 110 %
+ 66 %
+ 64 %
+ 49 %
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mill
ions
September 2015 September 2016 September 2017 September 2018 September 2019 September 2020
21.4M
(+4.6M yoy)
11M
(+2.8M yoy)
6.8M
(+2.7M yoy) 4.2M
(+1.7M yoy)
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 13Enlighten your digital future!
5.6%
9.9%
15.1%
16.4%
21.2%
23.0%
33.3%
34.7%
39.3%
39.6%
41.0%
41.3%
43.8%
44.8%
49.5%
52.5%
55.8%
62.9%
68.8%
68.9%
70.0%
72.7%
72.9%
75.0%
76.5%
81.3%
83.0%
87.8%
89.9%
91.9%
Belgium
Greece
United Kingdom
Germany
Austria
Cyprus
Croatia
Czech Republic
Finland
Netherlands
Italy
Poland
EU27+UK
Hungary
Slovakia
EU39
Ireland
Estonia
Denmark
Slovenia
Luxembourg
France
Romania
Malta
Bulgaria
Sweden
Portugal
Spain
Lithuania
Latvia
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
European leaderboards – EU27+UKHalfway there: EU27+UK – 14/28 Countries now exceeding 50% of total homes passed with Full-fibre!
FTTH/B coverage* in EU27+UK as of September 2020(* Homes passed / Households)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 14Enlighten your digital future! ® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
European leaderboards – EU39Halfway there: EU39 – 20 countries now have more than 50% of total homes with Full-fibre!
FTTH/B coverage* as of September 2020(* Homes passed / Households)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
5.6%9.9%
15.1%16.4%
17.7%21.2%
23.0%31.6%
33.3%34.7%
39.3%39.6%
41.0%41.3%
43.4%43.8%43.8%44.1%
44.8%49.5%50.1%
52.5%55.8%
62.9%63.9%
68.8%68.9%
70.0%72.7%72.9%
75.0%76.5%
81.3%81.5%
83.0%86.3%
87.8%89.9%90.0%
91.9%92.0%
BelgiumGreece
United KingdomGermany
SerbiaAustriaCyprus
North MacedoniaCroatia
Czech RepublicFinland
NetherlandsItaly
PolandIsrael
EU27+UKTurkey
SwitzerlandHungarySlovakia
KazakhstanEU39
IrelandEstoniaUkraine
DenmarkSlovenia
LuxembourgFrance
RomaniaMalta
BulgariaSwedenNorway
PortugalRussiaSpain
LithuaniaIcelandLatvia
Belarus
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 15Enlighten your digital future!
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B coverage > 90%
FTTH/B coverage 75 – 90 %
FTTH/B coverage 50 – 75 %
FTTH/B coverage < 50 %
FTTH/B coverage* map - September 2020(* Homes passed / Households)
73%
88%
41%
16%
15%
81%
41%
83%
FTTH/B CoverageSummary map 90%
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
Coverage rate
EU27+UK: 43.8% ( Up 4.4% )
EU39 : 52.5% ( Up 2.6% )
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 16Enlighten your digital future!
EU27+UK ranking in terms of FTTH/B Sockets deployed over time (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2020
5 fastest growing markets (in volume and in %)Data from Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020 (in terms of FTTH/B
Sockets Deployed)
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B Sockets Deployed* EU27+UK Ranking
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
*FTTH/B Sockets Deployed: The connection point of a single
fibre service provider inside/outside a premises.
Multiple sockets are counted if the location is serviced by
multiple FTTH network operators.
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mill
ions
September 2015 September 2016 September 2017 September 2018 September 2019 September 2020
1
2
3
4
5
+ 24.6M
+ 10.2M
+ 3.9M
+ 2.7M
+ 2 M
+ 155 %
+ 66 %
+ 49 %
+ 46 %
+ 46 %
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 17Enlighten your digital future!
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Sockets deployed, countries with > 2 million sockets deployedData comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2020 (in million)
5 fastest growing markets (in volume and in %)Data from Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020 (in terms of FTTH/B
Sockets Deployed)
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B Sockets Deployed* EU39 Ranking
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
*FTTH/B Sockets Deployed: The connection point of a single
fibre service provider inside/outside a premises.
Multiple sockets are counted if the location is serviced by
multiple FTTH network operators.
1
2
3
4
5
+ 24.6M
+ 10.2M
+ 5.1M
+ 3.9M
+ 2.7M
+ 155 %
+ 110 %
+ 66 %
+ 49 %
+ 49 %
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mill
ions
September 2015 September 2016 September 2017 September 2018 September 2019 September 2020
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 18Enlighten your digital future!
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mill
ions September 2015 September 2016 September 2017 September 2018 September 2019 September 2020
EU27+UK ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions over time (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2020
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B SubscribersEU27+UK Ranking
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
5 fastest growing markets (in volume and in %)Data from Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020 (in terms of FTTH/B
Subscribers)
1
2
3
4
5
+ 2.8M
+ 1.4M
+ 694k
+ 482k
+ 460k
+ 55 %
+ 52 %
+ 42 %
+ 41 %
+ 40 %
10.3M
(+2.8M yoy)
11.3M
(+1.4M yoy)
2.04M
(+674k yoy)
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 19Enlighten your digital future!
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions over time, countries with > 1 million subscriptionsData comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2020 (in million)
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B SubscribersEU39 Ranking
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
1
2
3
4
5
+ 2.8M
+ 1.7M
+ 1.4M
+ 718k
+ 694k
+ 64 %
+ 55 %
+ 52 %
+ 44 %
+ 42 %
5 fastest growing markets (in volume and in %)Data from Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020 (in terms of FTTH/B
Subscribers)
-
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ions
September 2015 September 2016 September 2017 September 2018 September 2019 September 2020
10.3M
(+2.8M yoy)
11.3M
(+1.4M yoy)
2.04M
(+674k yoy)
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 20Enlighten your digital future!
FTTH/B take-up > 50%
FTTH/B take-up 30 – 40 %
FTTH/B take-up < 30 %
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
FTTH/B take-up 40 – 50 %
79%
48%
Spain71%
14%
30%
25%
Sweden
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
FTTH/B Take-upSummary map
60%
FTTH/B take-up* map - September 2020(* Homes passed / Households)
Take-up rate
EU27+UK: 46.9% ( Up 3.6% )
EU39 : 44.9% ( Up 1.9% )
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 21Enlighten your digital future!
Focus on microstates progress Summary
12,000 Homes Passed by Fibre
69 %*7,600 Fibre Subscribers
66 %*
Liechtenstein - 17,300 Households (2019)
* of total homes
9,500 Homes Passed by Fibre
60 %*500 Fibre Subscribers
3 %*
Monaco - 16,200 Households (2019)
* of total homes
6,500 Homes Passed by Fibre
56 %*5,500 Fibre Subscribers
48 %*
San Marino - 11,500 Households (2019)
* of total homes
45,000 Homes Passed by Fibre
100%*37,165 Fibre Subscribers
83 %*
Andorra - 45,000 Households (2019)
* of total homes
Source: IDATE estimations for FTTH Council EUROPE
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 22Enlighten your digital future!
Fibre improves customer experience
▪ Full-fibre connectivity is designed for residential usage to support an increasing demand for bandwidth-intensive services (such as TV
and video)
▪ Fibre is also a key enabler for businesses, facilitating Working From Home (WFH) situations, joining reliable connectivity with higher
upload bandwidth and reduced latency.
▪ This supports video-conferencing, cloud-based services and other real-time or bandwidth hungry applications now in demand.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
FTTH/B Penetration alongside Ookla Global Index - Fixed Upload Bandwidth
FTTH/B Penetration % Upload Speed Mbps
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
FTTH/B Penetration alongside Ookla Global Index - Latency
FTTH/B Penetration % Latency (ms)Sources: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPEOokla Speedtest Global Index March 2021
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 23Enlighten your digital future!
FTTH/B Market
Panorama
European Ranking
September 2020
4
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
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1.3%2.1%
3.7%4.9%5.2%
5.9%7.0%
7.7%
8.8%12.0%
12.2%12.9%
14.5%15.1%
17.6%
18.3%18.8%19.0%
20.5%23.2%23.3%
26.7%
29.2%31.7%32.2%
32.8%33.7%
35.0%39.1%
40.7%46.1%
47.3%50.2%
51.3%51.4%
61.8%
62.6%70.4%70.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Belgium
Austria
United Kingdom
Germany
Cyprus
Italy
Croatia
Israel
Serbia
Ireland
Ukraine
North Macedonia
Poland
Turkey
Kazakhstan
Malta
Czech Republic
Netherlands
EU27+UK
Hungary
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Slovakia
Estonia
Slovenia
Finland
Denmark
France
Romania
Russia
Latvia
Bulgaria
Portugal
Lithuania
Norway
Sweden
Spain
Belarus
Iceland
FTTH Subscribers
FTTB Subscribers
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
Penetration rates of European countries - September 2020(FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)
European Ranking FTTH/B Markets - September 2020
Including:
▪ Countries with more than 1% FTTH/B household penetration
▪ Economies with at least 125.000 Households
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 25Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
European Ranking – EU27+UKThe Road to Full Fibre – Who has the most work left to do?
34,700,000
23,850,000
15,800,000
8,682,000
8,060,000
4,810,000
4,690,000
3,990,000
3,184,700
2,892,000
2,340,000
2,280,000
2,200,000
1,688,000
981,000
970,000
900,000
839,000
827,000
714,000
710,000
344,000
280,000
221,000
120,000
90,000
65,000
45,000
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000
Germany
United Kingdom
Italy
Poland
France
Netherlands
Belgium
Greece
Austria
Czech Republic
Romania
Hungary
Spain
Finland
Croatia
Slovakia
Sweden
Denmark
Ireland
Portugal
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Slovenia
Estonia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Latvia
Malta
Homes Left to Pass Homes Already Passed
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 26Enlighten your digital future!
FTTH/B Market
Panorama
Key conclusions
5
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 27Enlighten your digital future!
1
2
4
5
POSITIVE IMPACTS NEGATIVE IMPACTS
Data demand and bandwidth has intensified (due to COVID19 and
WFH situations), more operators focused on full-fibre networks to
sustain ongoing traffic increase
National authorities are fully involved in broadband
acceleration via FTTH, with new national programmes being
defined to reach Digital Agenda goals for 2025/2030.
Ongoing trend towards mutualized networks and network
sharing agreements in Europe will accelerate FTTH deployments
Continued investment from private financing groups for new and
existing network operators.
Variables affecting FTTH adoption Both positive and negative criteria should be considered
3
Progress in micro-trenching and cable design is less
intrusive/disruptive in cities and neighborhoods while new low
profile cable designs offer better aesthetics (indoors and
outdoors)
1
2
4
5
Gigabit Capable FWA (60Ghz) is becoming more common in
isolated areas, thus will delay FTTH deployments in some regions.
5G technology used in high spectrum bands (26 GHz) can directly
challenge FTTH in the fixed residential market
FTTH investments delayed in several areas due to direct
alternative technologies such as Cable (Docsis 3.1/4.0) and
G.Fast
Fibre Rollout Plans being delayed across Europe – some by up to 2
years. Removal of red tape and better central coordination can
tackle these delays.
Availability of skilled labor to build out new fibre networks is
beginning to be felt in late 2020. The growth expected in 2021 and
2022 will make this more pronounced.
3Misleading fibre advertising is still impacting FTTH subscriber
adoption. New demand for WFH applications in the home will help
differentiate FTTH further from FTTC as 2021 progresses.
® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 28Enlighten your digital future! ® IDATE DigiWorld 2021
Top 3 - Main movers in terms of Homes Passed in absolute numbers
Data comparison between Sept. 2019 and Sept. 2020
1 2 3
France
+ 4.6m
Italy
+ 2.8m
Germany
+ 2.7m
▪ FTTH/B networks are now covering more than half of total households in the EU39 region (53%): a key milestone on
the path towards full fibre connectivity across all of Europe.
▪ EU39 reaching 82 million FTTH subscriptions, with EU27+UK accounting for 56%.
▪ 183 million homes passed by full-fibre infrastructure in the total region, 98 million in EU27+UK.
FTTH/B reaching a
new level
▪ In many historical copper-based countries (UK, Germany, Italy), the whole telecom ecosystem has intensified its
efforts towards full-fibre connectivity, and the pandemic tends to accelerate both deployments and adoption. There is
still some distance to go with these 3 countries have ~60% of the remaining Homes to be passed in the EU27+UK!
▪ National authorities are even more involved in the digital transformation, in the wake of COVID-19 crisis, implying
revised national programmes, subsidies and a relevant policy framework to promote fibre expansion
▪ Underserved regions are also affected by the COVID pandemic and their need for reliable networks is now a clear
target for the ecosystem
Key lessons to be
learned
Key conclusionsRegional recap
Thank you for your Participation!
@FTTHCouncilEU
FTTH COUNCIL EUROPE
@FTTHCouncilEurope
@iWantFibre
FTTH Council Europe
www.ftthcouncil.eu
We connect technology, policy and finance
Roland Montagne
Principal Analyst, IDATE
+33 (0)4 67 14 44 26
Eric Joyce
Chair,Market Intelligence Committee
FTTH Council Europe