future freight flows: poten1al trends – near and...
TRANSCRIPT
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics ctl.mit.edu
FutureFreightFlows:Poten1alTrends–NearandFar
Chris Caplice ([email protected]) Director, MIT FreightLab
20 January 2017
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
FreightTransporta1onPlanningisHard.• Hardforshippers,• Harderforcarriers,• Hardestforgovernmentplanners!
n Infrastructureplanning1meframeisdecadesn Diverseandvocalcons1tuents(NIMBY,BANANA)n Palletsdon’tvoten Bothmodalandjurisdic1onalsilosn Revenuesourcesaredecreasingdrama1callyn Removedfromthesystemusers
These challenges were recognized by AASHTO and USDOT – resulting in the Future Freight Flows project.
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
TheFutureFreightFlowsProject
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
FFFProjectObjec1ves&Deliverables• TwoObjec1ves:
n “Providedecisionmakers[stateDOTs]withacri1caldrivingforcesbehindhigh-impacteconomicchangesandbusinesssourcingpaTernsthatmayeffecttheUSfreighttransporta1onsystem[intheyear2030&beyond].”
n “BeTerenableinformeddiscussionsofna1onal,mul1-state,state,andregionalfreightpolicyandsysteminvestmentpriori1es.
• ThreeDeliverables:n AnalysisofDrivingForcesn FutureScenariosn ToolkitforrunningaFutureFreightFlowWorkshops
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
So many potential futures, so little time . . .
5
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
FFF Thought Leaders
Candidate Forces& Uncertainties
12 Snapshot Scenarios
Brainstorming Session
Prioritization Workshop
Expert Practitioners
Analyze, Harmonize and Merge
Future Freight Flows Symposium
Stress maps Flow Impacts
Influence Matrices
Analyze and Merge
Freight Stakeholders
20 Candidate Forces
Distribute Survey
264 complete and usable responses
Stakeholders Survey
Scenario Generation
Identify key driving forces
Two structuring axes Develop
storylines Potential storylines
Test and Refine storylines
4 scenario skeletons Finalize scenarios
4 scenarios
MIT CTL Team
Supply chain professionals
Phase 1
Phase 2
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Strategyvs.FactorsvsForces
7
• Strategyn Thingsyoucontroln Solu1ons&approaches
• Factors(“Inside-out”)n Youcannotcontroln Youmaybeabletoinfluencen Directandobviouseffects
• Forces(“Outside-in”)n Youcannotcontroln Youcannotinfluencen Indirect,ambiguous&unknowneffects
A scenario is a set of driving forces
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Key Drivers 1. Global Trade 2. Resource Availability
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
FourFutureFreightFlowScenarios
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
• DigitalFreightMatching• Transporta1onManagementSystems• MobileCommunica1on• AutonomousTrucks
now +20years+5years+1year +10years
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
DigitalFreightMatching
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
UberforX
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
WhynotUberforFreight?
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Over $500M invested in these 67 start ups
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Thelast1meVCsthoughtfreightwassexy... >200 Transportation Electronic Marketplaces existed in 1999,
but essentially none survived in their original form.
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Thelast1meVCsthoughtfreightwassexy...
Source:Boyle,Marc(2000)Business-to-BusinessMarketplacesforFreightTransporta7on
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Most Recent Real Disruption?
Source: AAR and ATA
50.0$
60.0$
70.0$
80.0$
90.0$
100.0$
110.0$
1980$1982$1984$1986$1988$1990$1992$1994$1996$1998$2000$2002$2004$2006$2008$2010$
IndexofRevenueperMileforUS.TruckinginReal$
Deregulation
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Case of Rapid Change: Deregulation
Bifurcation of US Trucking Market
Source: Parming 2013
Predominant LTL
Predominant TL
Hybrid
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
DoestheUbermodelfit?
• Whatdowedowhenweuber?1. ContactasinglesourcethroughanApp2. “Real1me”visibilityofnearbyvehicles3. Matchedtooneofmul1pleunderlyingproviders4. Paymenthandledoffline,es1matedinadvance5. Pricingvariesbasedonsurging
IsUberjustFreightBrokerageforPassengers?
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
HowdotheMarketsCompare?PAX FRGT
CompeDDveMarket LocalMonopolies(taxis)
HighlyCompe11ve
NewCapacity Untapped/Part-Time NoneBusinessType C2C B2BServiceTypes Limited UnlimitedFrequencyofUse Occasional Repe11vePlanningLeadTime 0min 1-3DaysLengthofHaul VeryShort
(~6miles)MuchLonger(500miles+)
LoadingTime ~30seconds >1hourAsset/DriverType PersonalVehicle CommercialVehicle
Par1allyadaptedfromSa1shJindal(2016)
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Transporta1onPoroolioCon1nuum• Differentnetworksegmentsrequiredifferentrela1onships• Segmenta1onofnetworkandcarriersbyneeds• Con1nuumfromone-offtransac1onstoownership
n OwnershipofAssetsversusControlofAssetsn Responsibilityforu1liza1onn On-goingcommitment/responsibili1esn SharedRisk/Reward–Flexiblecontracts
Private Fleet
Spot Market
Dedicated Fleet
Core Carriers
Alternate Carriers
Use for most reliable and steady flows
Use for random & distressed traffic
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
ProposedvaluetobeTermatching
• Improvedvehicleu1liza1onn Es1matesinUS10%-30%emptymilesn Differsbylengthofhaul&carriersize
• Reducedtransac1onalinefficiencies(fric1on)n Streamlinematching,payment,no1fica1on,visibility,etc.
n Doesvisibilityofnearbytrucksaddvaluetoashipper?
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
MyTake-Awayson“UberforFreight”• Moststartupsinthisspacehatethename!• Somestartupsdohavehaveimprovedfunc1onality...
n Evolu1onarymorethanrevolu1onary,n Servingtoincreasecustomerexpecta1ons,butn Worthwhilefunc1onalityisbeingincorporatedwithinTMSorbrokers.
• Demiseofbrokershasbeengreatlyexaggerated(again)n Middleman’sroleisgrowing,notbeingdiminishedn Promised“twoparty”transac1onsarereally“threeparty”n Poten1alconsolida1oninbrokeragespace–strongeconomiesofscale
• Areaforfit:Localreal-1me,on-demanddelivery
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Begsabiggerques1on...
ContractRate
SpotRate
Transporta1o
nRa
te($
/mile)
1me
Ifspotmarketwastotallyliquidandreliable,woulditleadtotheendofannualcontracts?
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
TMSTrends
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Gartner’sMagicQuadrantforTMS
Excel, Phone & Fax!
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
LatestTMSTrends• ConvergenceofSystems
n BridgingFunc1onsw Connec1ngtoWMS,OMS,IMS,etc.w Fixnginend-to-endsolu1onsw GrowthofSupplyChainPlaoorms
n Connec1nggapbetweenplanning&execu1onw Integra1ngreal-1mestatusintoexecu1onw Feedingexecu1onresultsbackintoplanningw Procurementtriggering(marketvs.schedulebased)
• Evolu1onofDeploymentn Finallyflippedfromself-hostedtoremotehostedn Longevolu1on:ASPtoSaaStoCloudn Differentflavorsofremotehos1ngn Fasterupgradesandrolloutofimprovements
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
MyTakeAwaysforTMSs• Thedecisionfortheshipperhasnotchanged,
n StandardprocessesversusCompe11veadvantagen ERPoff-the-shelfversusBestofBreed
• Thespeedofimplementa1oniss1llaproblem,n Gexngfaster(forvanillainstall)n Connec1ngcarriersiss1llthe1mesinkn Nostandardiza1onofformatordata
• MosthaveDigitalFreightMatchinganyway!n Privatemarketplacesn Dynamicandadap1vecarrierselec1on
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Example:CarrierSelec1onwith AutomatedEscala1on
Carrier
Accept?
OrderManagement
System
Load
No tLT>tMIN?
SelectAppropriate:(1)CarrierGroup&
(2)ClearingMechanism
No
Yes
CarrierCarrierCarrier
Offer
Response(s) OK?
Yes
Done
SelectCarrierfromRou1ngGuide
Tender
Tender
Yes
No
Transporta1onManagementSystem
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Num
ber o
f Car
riers
R
ange of Pricing
Primary
Step 1
Lane Backup
Step 2 Step 4
All Relevant Company Carriers
(Dynamic Prices)
All Relevant Company Carriers (Quoted Rates)
Step 3 Steps Step 5
Public Market
AutomatedEscala1onProcess
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
MobileCommunica1ons
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
MobileCommunica1ons
• Providingreal-1meaccesstodriversn Forshippers,carriers,brokers...n GPSbasedposi1oning-trackingn Visibilityversusexcep1onmanagement
• Connec1vitytothedriver......doshippersreallywantthisinforma1on?...docarriersreallywanttogivethisinforma1on?
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
ChallengesforMobileTracking• Howeasilycanreal-1meassettracking...
n GPSdatabemergedwithmilestoneEDIdata?n Betranslatedandmappedintoac1onableontheunderlyingordersandgoods?
n BeconvertedintobeTerpredic1ons?• ImpactofwidespreaduseofElectronicLogBooks?• Whathappenswithcompletetransparencytodrivers?
n Dissolu1onofcarriers?n Growthofalliances?n Growthoffreightbrokerage(UberFreight)?
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
AutonomousTrucks
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Shizfrom“If”to“What,When,&Where”• TheWhat...likeboilingafrog!
n Notabinarydecision...w NoAutoma1on(Level0)w Func1on-SpecificAutoma1on(Level1)w Combined-Func1onAutoma1on(Level2)w LimitedSelf-DrivingAutoma1on(Level3)w FullSelf-DrivingAutoma1on(Level4)
n SystemsinPlacew CollisionMi1ga1onSystemsw IntegratedSafetySystemsw LaneDepartureWarningw BlindSpotDetec1on
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Shizfrom“If”to“What,When,&Where”• TheWhen...fasterthanoriginallythought!
n FirstpaidautonomousdeliveryoccurredinColoradoinOctober2016.
n UberFreightOn-goingExperiments&Trialsw Ini1alwindowwas15yearstocommercialnon-pilotusew Releasingsozwareupdates2-3xweeklyandhardwareweeklyw Windowfornon-pilotcommercialuseshrinkingtosingleyears
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
From“If”to“What,When,Where,&How”• TheWhere...threeenvironmentsforfreight
n Longhaulcorridorsn Shorterhaullocalmoves/shuTlerunsn IntraFacility(Yard)moves
LongHaulShorterHaulIntra-Yard
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
LongerTerm...• DirectChanges
n Increasedsingledayrange(~1000miles)n UbiquitousnessofTLcombinedwithlowcostofIMn Lowerfuelcosts
• IndirectImpactsn Reduc1oninNa1onalDCs,increaseinlocalsn Concentratedcorridortrafficn Dissolu1onofTLcarrierstoindependentdrivingen11es
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
• DigitalFreightMatching• Transporta1onManagementSystems• MobileCommunica1on• AutonomousTrucks
now +20years+5years+1year +10years
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MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics
Questions, Comments, Suggestions?
“Wilson&Dexter–disrup1ngthedominantdesigndaily”YankeeGoldenRetrieverRescuedDogs(www.ygrr.org)