Future of gas and biogas in Ireland

Brian Ó Gallachóir and Jerry Murphy

IEA ETSAP Workshop, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Jan 30 2017

UCC Green Campus

• world’s first green flag campus

• world’s 1st university to achieve the ISO 50001 standard

• 4th in world in the UI World Green Metric University Rankings 2015

• Environmental Research Institute 2000

• SFI MaREI Centre 2015

SFI MaREI Centre

Energy Systems Modelling

Paul Deane (Integrated Systems)

Alessandro Chiodi (Energy Systems)

James Glynn (Energy & Economy)

Maurizio Gargiulo (Energy & Economy)

Sean Collins (EU Power System)

Fiac Gaffney (Electricity Market)

Steve Pye (Policy Uncertainty)

Maitiú Ó Ciaráin (EU Electricity & Gas)

Diarmuid Foley (EU Nuclear)

Laura Mehigan (Decentralisation)

Economic Opportunities

Fionn Rogan (Energy Innovation)

Ian Hughes (Innovation and Transition)

Mitra K. Delivand (Innovation Systems)

Tarun Sharma (Energy Systems)

Gideon Fadiran (Value Chain Analysis)

Xiufeng Yue (Resilient Energy Systems)

Alessia Elia (Innovation Systems)

Camella Bailey (Innovation Policy)

Energy Policy

Emer Dennehy (Energy Efficiency)

Matthew Clancy (Renewable Policy)

Eamonn Mulholland (Transport)

Advertised (Simulating Measures)

Clare Watson (Community Engagement)

Tomas MacUidhir (Energy Demand)

Emma Hanley (Energy Policy Scenarios)

Donna Gartland (District Heating)

Kathleen Krah (Spatial Heat Analysis)

Advertised (Agencies and intermediaries)

UCC Energy Policy and Modelling Group (29)

Brian Ó Gallachóir Principal Investigator

Research Outputs 2014 - 2016

• 23 peer reviewed journal papers

• 17 peer reviewed conference papers

• 12 book chapters

• 10 research project reports

• 92 invited presentations

• Blogs – 4,000 view 2016

• 6 Newspaper articles (4 op-eds)

• 3,000 tweets (12k impressions Dec)

Informing national climate action legislation

Informing Energy White Paper

Climate and Air Quality Interface

Climate and Air Ireland -

Synergies and Tensions

A GAINS Ireland and Irish TIMES

analysis

Andrew Kellya, Alessandro Chiodib, Miao Fua,

J.P. Deaneb, Brian P. Ó Gallachóirb

a EnvEcon, Dublin, Ireland

b Energy Policy and Modelling Group, Environmental Research

Institute, University College Cork, Ireland

Policy questions and UCC Energy Models

• what is the appropriate mitigation target for Ireland?

• Irish TIMES energy systems modelling – least cost technology roadmap

• what emissions reductions will specific policy measures deliver?

• LEAP_Ireland simulation modelling – policy roadmaps

• how confident are we that policy measures will deliver?

• scrutiny and ex-post analysis of enabling measures

• what are the implications for the power system and gas system of increased RES?

• PLEXOS electricity and gas modelling

UCC Energy Models

TIMES integrated energy systems modelling Irish TIMES (scenarios to 2020, 2030 and 2030)TIAM-UCC – TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (Global TIMES) implications for energy system and economy of mitigation GHG Targets and Technology Roadmaps

PLEXOS integrated electricity, gas and water modellingPLEXOS-IE model of IrelandPLEXOS-EU-28 model of European Unionimplications of RES-E on electricity and gas systems and marketsElectricity and gas markets and system operation

Sectoral energy demand simulation modelsCARStock, ArDEM, LEAP_IEimpacts and effectiveness of policy measuresPolicy roadmaps

Title

How Elements Interact In PLEXOS 7.3

Power Heat Gas Water

Power Plants

Gas Fields

Heat Plants

Water Plants

Ireland’s Low Carbon Pathway to 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

% o

f 1

99

0 C

O2

em

issi

on

s

Power Sector

Transformation

Residential

Services

Industrial Processes

Industry

Transport

Agriculture (Energy)

BAU

Ireland’s Energy System 2050 (BaU)

TFC

200 TWh

Elec 17%

Ireland’s Energy System 2050 (-80% CO2)

TFC

136 TWh

Elec 25%

Scenario analysis to address uncertainty

• Irish TIMES finds least cost pathway to meet energy service demands and policy constraints

• Assumptions in all scenarios- macro drivers from ESRI economic projections – fuel prices from IEA WEO 2012 – technology dbase from PET, DECC, JRC –

1. BaU – business as usual – unlikely but useful reference

2. CO2-80 – 80% reduction in 1990 CO2 emissions by 2050

3. No CCS – CO2-80 but with no CCS option

4. No BioImp – CO2-80 but with no bioenergy imports allowed

5. ILUC- – CO2-80 but indirect land use emissions accounted for

Story of Electricity Generation to 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20

10

BaU

CO

2-8

0

No

CC

S

No

Bio

Imp

ILU

C-

. 2050

TWh

Other

Import/Export

Renewables

Gas CCS

Coal CCS

Gas

Oil

Coal+Peat

Gas and biogas scenarios in 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

10

BaU

CO

2-8

0

No

CC

S

No

Bio

Imp

ILU

C-

. 2050

TWh

TRA-Biogas

TRA-Gas

RSD-Biogas

RSD-Gas

SRV-Biogas

SRV-Gas

IND-Biogas

IND-Gas

SUP-Gas

AGR-Gas

ELC-Biogas & Waste

ELC-Gas CCS

ELC-Gas

(Distribution) gas and biogas scenarios in 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

452

01

0

BaU

CO

2-8

0

No

CC

S

No

Bio

Imp

ILU

C-

. 2050

TWh

TRA-Biogas

TRA-Gas

RSD-Biogas

RSD-Gas

SRV-Biogas

SRV-Gas

IND-Biogas

IND-Gas

SUP-Gas

AGR-Gas

Gas in Ireland’s Future is influenced by many factors

CCS

Bioenergy policy

Security of Supply

Agriculture

ElectrificationDomestic Heating

EU Policy

ILUC

Fuel Switching

6 European gas grids have committed to 100% green gas in the gas grid by 2050

Green Gas

Green Gas

TRL 7-9

TRL 6

TRL 4,5

TRL 3,4

Initiation of Industry

Green Gas from residues, slurriesand grass

TRL 7-9 residues, slurries and grass

TRL 7-9 residues, slurries and grass

TRL 7-9 residues, slurries and grass

Grass is a perennialGrass lands sequester carbonGrass can be outside food fuel debateGrass is ligno-cellulosic? Grass is a second generation gaseous biofuel which can be used in NGVsNatural Gas Grid can be distribution system.

TRL 7-9 residues, slurries and grass

Grass to transport fuel

harvest silage storage

macerator

Source: energiewerkstatt, IEA and personal photos

anaerobic

digester

weigh bridge

Biogas service station Scrubbing &

storage

TRL 7-9 residues, slurries and grass

Maize Grass

Methane yield m3 . ha-1 5,748 4,303

GJ . ha-1 217 163

Process energy demand for digestion GJ. ha-1 33 24

Energy requirement in cropping GJ. ha-1 17 17

Total energy requirement GJ. ha-1 50 41

Net energy yield GJ.ha-1 167 122

Output (GJ.ha-1)Input (tot. Energy)

4.3 4.0

Net energy yield per hectare of crops

TRL 7-9 residues, slurries and grass

Second stage of Industry

Green Gas from gasification ofwoody crops

TRL 6 Gasification of woody crops

Gothenburg Biomass Gasification Project (GoBiGas)

TRL 6 Gasification of woody crops

Thermal production of Biomethane

CO + 3H2 = CH4 +

H2O

CO2 + 4 H2= CH4 + 2H2O

2CO + 2H2 = CH4 + CO2

Typically ca. 65% energy efficiency

Gas upgrading

Removal of CO2

TRL 6 Gasification of woody crops

Plant Size MW 50

Land area (ha) 6800

Number of plants required 11

As a % Energy in Transport 5.5%

As a % of agricultural land 1.7%

cf. 170 grass, slurry digesters

TRL 6 Gasification of woody crops

TRL 7-9

TRL 6

TRL 4,5

TRL 3,4

Third stage of Industry

Green Gas from seaweed

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

Specific methane yields of Seaweed

S. Polyschides

A. Nodosum

L. Digitata

S. latissima

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

Seasonal Variation in composition of Laminaria Digitata

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

Seasonal Variation in biomethane yield from Laminaria Digitata

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

40

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

TRL 4-5 Seaweed

TRL 7-9

TRL 6

TRL 4,5

TRL 3,4Fourth stage of Industry

Green Gas from electricity

TRL 3,4 Green gas from electricity

P2G: Electrolysis followed by Methanation

Electrolysis: Electricity converted to H2 at 70- 90% ηMethanation: 4H2 + CO2 = CH4 + 2H2O at 80– 90%ηOverall: 55 - 80% η

2 MW Power-to-Gas unit (Falkenhagen, Germany). Hydrogen is injected into the grid without methanation

Windmill at a biogas facility. (Source: Xergi)

TRL 3,4 Green gas from electricity

TRL 3,4 Green gas from electricity

Collaborators and funders

Outputs - Multi-model economy …

Glynn J., Fortes P., Krook-Riekkola A., Labriet M., Vielle M., Kypreos S., Lehtilä A., Mischke P., Dai H., Gargiulo M., Helgesen P.I., Kober T., Summerton P., Merven B., Selosse S., Karlsson K., Strachan N., Ó Gallachóir B. 2015 ‘Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—National Perspectives. Chapter in SpringerBook Informing energy and climate policies using energy systems models’ pp 359-387

Gargiulo M., Curtis J., Glynn J., Fitgerald J. and Ó Gallachóir B. 2015 Comparing hard-linking (TIMES-MSA) and soft-linking (TIMES-HERMES) methodologies for quantifying economic impacts of mitigation. Proc. 68th

Semi-annual IEA ETSAP Workshop, October 22 – 23 2015, Sophia Antipolis, France.

Glynn J., Kypreos S., Lehtila A., Gargiulo M., Ó Gallachóir B.P. 2015 Optimal Equitable Burden Sharing –Modelling Global Macroeconomic Impacts of the Carbon Constrained Energy System Using ETSAP-TIAM-MSA. Proc. International Energy Workshop 2015 Abu Dhabi, June 3 2015.

Glynn J., Gargiulo M. and Ó Gallachóir B. 2014 Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system using ETSAP-TIAM MSA Proc International Association of Energy Economists 2014 Conference October 28 – 31, 2014 Rome, Italy.

Gargiulo M., Chiodi A., Deane P., Ó Gallachóir B. Impact of economic recession on the costs of climate mitigation. Proc 12th IAEE European Energy Conference, Energy Challenge and Environmental Sustainability, 9-12 September, Venice, Italy.

Outputs - Multi-model power system…

Deane J.P., Gracceva F.; Chiodi A.; Gargiulo M., and Ó Gallachóir B.P. 2015 Assessing Power System Security. A framework and a multi model approach. International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 73 Pages 283-297

Deane, Paul; Driscoll, Áine; O Gallachóir, Brian 2015 Quantifying the Impacts of National Renewable Electricity Ambitions using a North-West European Electricity Market Model Renewable Energy 80, August 01, 2015, Pages 604-609

Welsch M., Deane J.P., Howells M., Ó Gallachóir B.P., Rogan F., Bazilian M. And Rogner H.H. 2014 Incorporating Flexibility into long-term energy system models – A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland. Applied Energy, Vol 135 Pages 600-615.

Deane J.P., Drayton G., Ó Gallachóir B.P. 2014 The impact of sub-hourly modelling in power systems with significant levels of renewable generation. Applied Energy Vol 113, Pages 152-158

Deane J.P., McKeogh E.J. and Ó Gallachóir B.P. 2013 Derivation of Intertemporal Targets for Large Pumped Hydro Energy Storage with Stochastic Optimisation. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems Vol. 28, pp 2147 – 2155

Deane J.P., Chiodi A., Gargiulo M. and Ó Gallachóir B.P. 2012 Soft-linking of a power systems model to and energy systems model. Energy Vol 42, Pages 303-312

Outputs - Multi-model GHG …

Chiodi A.; Donnellan T., Breen J., Hanrahan K., Gargiulo M., and Ó Gallachóir B.P. 2015 Integrating agriculture and energy within an energy systems models to assess GHG emissions reduction - a Methodological approach. Climate Policy Vol 16 215-236

Czyrnek-Delêtre M., Chiodi A., Murphy J.D. and Ó Gallachóir B. 2015 Impact of including land use change emissions from biofuels on GHG emissions reduction targets – the example of Ireland Proc 10th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES) September 27 -October 2 2015 Dubrovnik.

Chiodi A., Breen J., Donnellan T., Gargiulo M., Deane P, and Ó Gallachóir B. 2014 Land use competition between energy and food – the case of climate mitigation in Ireland Proc 14th International Association of Energy Economists European Conference October 28 – 31, 2014 Rome, Italy.

Chiodi A., Gargiulo M. and Ó Gallachóir B. P. 2012 Climate Change Mitigation - Don't forget about agriculture.Proc International Energy Workshop 2012 University of Capetown June 19 - 21, Capetown, South Africa.

Outputs - Multi-model policy measures …

Mulholland E., Rogan F. and Ó Gallachóir B. 2014 Soft-Linking a TIMES Model and Sectoral Simulation Model for Individual Policy Measures Proc. 66th Semi-annual IEA ETSAP Workshop, Copenhagen, Denmark, November 17 – 18 2014.

Daly H.E., Ramea K., Chiodi A., Yeh S., Gargiulo M., Ó Gallachóir B.P. 2014 Modelling modal choice behaviour within a linear energy system model Applied Energy 135 429-439

Rogan F., Cahill C., Daly H.E., Dineen D., Deane J.P., Heaps C., Welsch M., Howells M., Bazilian M., Ó GallachóirB.P. 2014 LEAPs and Bounds - A Hybrid Energy Demand and Constraint Optimized Model of the Irish Energy System. Energy Efficiency Vol 7, 441-466

Leinert S., Daly H.E., Hyde B., Ó Gallachóir B.P. 2013 Co-benefits? Not always. Quantifying the negative effect of a CO2-reducing car taxation policy on NOX emissions Energy Policy Vol 63, Pages 1151-1159

Daly H.E. and Ó Gallachóir B. P. 2012 Future Energy and Emissions Policy Scenarios in Ireland for Private Car Transport Energy Policy Vol 51, Pages 172 - 183.

Cahill C., and Ó Gallachóir B. P. 2012 Quantifying the savings of an industry energy efficiency programme. Energy Efficiency, 5 (2):211-224

Rogan F, Dennehy E, Daly H. E., Howley M. and Ó Gallachóir B. P. 2011 Impacts of an Emission Based Private Car Taxation Policy – One Year Ex-Post Analysis. Transportation Research Part A Vol 45, Pages 583-597

Future of gas and biogas in Ireland

Brian Ó Gallachóir and Jerry Murphy

IEA ETSAP Workshop, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Jan 30 2017