•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

Primary CTG

Secondary CTG

Tertiary CTG

Real GDP Growth

Q/Q SAAR and Percentage Points

Global Monthly April 2020

2

September 2019 April 2020

-100

-50

0

50

100

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Se

p-1

9

No

v-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Mar-

20

Percent Sri Lanka VietnamIsrael Finland

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-35

-28

-21

-14

-7

0

Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20

S&P 500

EM MSCI

EM spread (RHS)

US high-yield (RHS)

Percent Percentage points

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

20

05

20

06

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

20

19

20

20

Percent

3

September 2019 April 2020

80

100

120

140

90

100

110

120

Jan-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-19

Oct-

19

Jan-2

0

Apr-

20

ECB

BoJ

Federal Reserve (RHS)

January 2019=100

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

20-J

an

3-F

eb

17

-Fe

b

2-M

ar

16-M

ar

30-M

ar

13-A

pr

27

-Ap

r

Basis points (0 = January 20, 2020)Brazil

Indonesia

Mexico

Russian Federation

Turkey

South Africa

Argentina, RHS

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2018 2019 2020

China Rest of world

Percent, y/y

4

September 2019 April 2020

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

201901 201907 202001

GDPRetail salesIndustrial production

Percent

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

8-M

ar

13

-Ma

r

18-M

ar

23-M

ar

28-M

ar

2-A

pr

7-A

pr

12-A

pr

17-A

pr

22-A

pr

27-A

pr

Percent deviation from baseline

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57Days

New infections, 7 day average

ItalySpainEuro Area (others)

5

September 2019 April 2020

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2007

2008

20

09

2010

2011

2012

2013

20

14

2015

2016

20

17

2018

2019

2020

Difference

0

20

40

60

80

100

1-J

an

20-J

an

9-F

eb

29-F

eb

20

-Ma

r

9-A

pr

29-A

pr

Commodity exporters

Commodity importers

Index

35

40

45

50

55

Ja

n-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Se

p-1

9

No

v-1

9

Jan-2

0

Mar-

20

Index

Commodity exporters

Commodity importers

6

September 2019 April 2020

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01-J

an

11

-Ja

n

21

-Ja

n

31

-Ja

n

10

-Fe

b

20

-Fe

b

01

-Ma

r

11-M

ar

21

-Ma

r

31

-Ma

r

10

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

US$/bbl

Human-to human

transmission

confirmed

OPEC+ fail to

agree cuts

OPEC+ agrees

to new cuts

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

NYC subwayridership

China passengerjourneys

Percent

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

Oil

Coal

Natu

ral ru

bbe

r

Alu

min

um

Base

meta

ls

Tin

Corn

Soyb

ean

Go

ld

Percent

7

September 2019 April 2020

20

40

60

80

100

120

t t+10 t+20 t+30 t+40 t+50 t+60 t+70

9/11 GFC C-19

Index, 100 = t

-10

-5

0

5

10

Be

fore

During

Befo

re

During

Befo

re

During

Oil Metals Agriculture

Range Average 2020Percent

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Oil Metals Agriculture

1974-75 1980-82

1990-91 2008-09

Percent

8

September 2019 April 2020

(Percent change, y/y)

(Percent change y/y)

Recent releases: March 31, 2020 - April 30, 2020 Upcoming releases: May 1, 2020 - May 31, 2020

Country Date Indicator Period Actual Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous

United Kingdom 3/31/20 GDP Q4 1.1% 1.3% South Korea 5/3/20 CPI APR 1.0%

Indonesia 4/1/20 CPI MAR 3.0% 3.0% Turkey 5/4/20 CPI APR 11.9%

South Korea 4/1/20 CPI MAR 1.0% 1.1% Indonesia 5/6/20 GDP Q1 5.0%

Turkey 4/3/20 CPI MAR 11.9% 12.4% Brazil 5/8/20 CPI APR 3.3%

Brazil 4/9/20 CPI MAR 3.3% 4.0% China 5/11/20 CPI APR 4.4%

China 4/9/20 CPI MAR 4.4% 5.2% United Kingdom 5/12/20 GDP Q1 1.1%

United States 4/10/20 CPI MAR 1.5% 2.3% United States 5/12/20 CPI APR 1.5%

Turkey 4/13/20 IP FEB 10.5% 7.6% Euro Area 5/13/20 IP MAR -1.6%

France 4/15/20 CPI MAR 0.7% 1.5% Malaysia 5/13/20 GDP Q1 3.6%

Spain 4/15/20 CPI MAR 0.0% 0.7% France 5/15/20 CPI APR 0.7%

United States 4/15/20 IP MAR -5.5% 0.0% Germany 5/15/20 GDP Q1 0.5%

China 4/16/20 GDP Q1 -6.8% 6.0% Japan 5/17/20 GDP Q1 -0.7%

Germany 4/16/20 CPI MAR 1.3% 1.8% Thailand 5/18/20 GDP Q1 1.6%

Euro Area 4/17/20 CPI MAR 0.8% 1.2% Canada 5/20/20 CPI APR 0.8%

Japan 4/17/20 IP FEB -3.4% -2.5% Euro Area 5/20/20 CPI APR 0.8%

United States 4/29/20 GDP Q1 0.3% 2.3% United Kingdom 5/20/20 CPI APR 1.5%

Euro Area 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -3.3% 1.0% South Africa 5/27/20 CPI APR 4.1%

France 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -5.4% 0.9% South Korea 5/28/20 IP APR 7.1%

Italy 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -4.8% 0.1% Brazil 5/29/20 GDP Q1 1.7%

Mexico 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -1.6% -0.5% India 5/29/20 GDP Q1 4.7%

Spain 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -4.1% 1.8% Turkey 5/29/20 GDP Q1 6.0%