general election: one year out

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

General Election One year out


Welcome:

Sir Robert

Worcester Founder of MORI

3

Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 12th May 2014

Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus,

ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus

Reid, Ashcroft

-30

-15

0

15

30

232425262728293031323334353637

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-1

3

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Co

nserv

ati

ve v

ote

sh

are

EOI % +/-

+3

32%

-3

Proximity

to 32%

Number of

polls % of polls

+/-3ppt 444/

497 89%

+/-2ppt 388/

497 78%

+/-1ppt 261/

497 53%

Vote share trendline: R2 = 0.0049

EOI impact on vote share: R2 = 0.0782

Economic Optimism Up, Conservative Vote Share Static

“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”

“Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over

the next twelve months?”


Professor

Roger Mortimore Professor of Public Opinion and Political

Analysis at Institute of Contemporary British

History, King's College London


The Election:

One Year Out

Roger Mortimore Professor of Public Opinion and Political

Analysis at Institute of Contemporary British

History, King's College London

6 The most unpredictable election in living memory?

What are the precedents?

– The last time a government increased its vote share after

more than two years in office - 1955

– (It has only happened twice since 1900)

– The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall

majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931

– Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832

Marginal seats

General election 2010 Overall majority

326 seats

Marginal seats

General election 2010

306

258

57

Marginal seats

To win in 2015

306

258

57

Conservatives

need 20 gains

Labour need

68 gains

Marginal seats

To win in 2015

306

258

57

Conservatives

need 1.9%

swing

Labour need

5.0% swing

11 A 5% swing is big, but not impossibly big

Source: House of Commons Library

Swings at general elections

2.8 1.1

1.7 1.2

4.8

5.4 4.0

1.8 3.2

5.1

11.3

3.0

2.7

0.9 2.1

1.8 2.0

10.2

1945

1951

1959

1966

1974 (Feb)

1979

1987

1997

2005

Swing to Con

Swing to Lab

12

May change my mind Definitely decided

81%

18%

Increasing volatility of the voters

Q Have you definitely decided to vote for xxx party or is there a chance you may change your mind before

you vote?

Base: All British adults 18+ naming one of the three main parties Source: Ipsos MORI

62%

35%

Don’t know

21-25

April

2005 54% 45%

25-27

March

1992

23

April

2010

13

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

Voting intentions and turnout

% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

Voting intentions and turnout

% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”


How voters decide

16 How voters decide

Policies

Party Local

candidates

Leaders

Perceptions, not facts,

make public opinion

17 The political triangle: trends

Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to [each]?

Base: British adults aged 18+ giving a voting intention (c.700 in each survey, 1,210 in February 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI

LEADERS of the party

PARTY as a whole

POLICIES of the party




44 47

41 42

46

35 33 34

32 31

21 20 23 24 24

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014


PARTY as a whole


Me

an

sco

res o

ut o

f 1

0 c

on

ve

rte

d to

pe

rce

nta

ge

s




44 47

41 42

46

40 38

35 33 34

32 31

39 38

21 20 23 24 24

21 22

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014


PARTY as a whole


Me

an

sco

res o

ut o

f 1

0 c

on

ve

rte

d to

pe

rce

nta

ge

s




44 47

41 42

46

40 38

41

35 33 34

32 31

39 38

26

21 20 23 24 24

21 22

33

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014


PARTY as a whole


Me

an

sco

res o

ut o

f 1

0 c

on

ve

rte

d to

pe

rce

nta

ge

s

21

…pointing out what was

wrong with the policies and

personalities in other parties

…putting forward their

own policies and

personalities

80%

14% 1%

Negative campaigning

Which of the following comes closest to your views?

Base: 1,018 adults aged 18+ across 57 marginal constituencies in Great Britain, 23-26 April 2010 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI

25%

64%

8%

Don’t know

Is being

fought

Should be

fought

The election should be fought by the parties/is being fought by the parties…

Neither

Both

22 What the voters say they don’t like –

negative campaigning

23 Positive and negative perceptions - 2010

Base: 1,253 GB adults aged 18+, 18-20 April 2010 Source: Mortimore et al (2014), IJMR

Q. In general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?

EFFECT ON SATISFACTION WITH THE LEADER (Multivariate regression analysis)

Trustworthy Not trustworthy Don’t know

No significant

difference

Odds of being

dissatisfied

3 times as high

No significant

difference

Odds of being

dissatisfied

8 times as high

And finally

25 Government lead in the polls – one year out

2015

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

One year out


2015

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

One year out

In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when

one party had a narrow poll lead one year out,


2015

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

One year out

In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when

one party had a narrow poll lead one year out,

THE OTHER PARTY WON


Thank you

Roger Mortimore Professor of Public Opinion and

Political Analysis at Institute of

Contemporary British History, King's

College London


Ben Page Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI


One Year from

the Election…

Ben Page

Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI

@benatipsosmori


8%

10%

13%

14%

11%

14%

15%

24%

31%

33%

47%

Defence/Foreign

Housing

Poverty/Inequality

Inflation/Prices

Pensions/Benefits

Education/Schools

Crime/Law & order

NHS/Hospitals

Unemployment

Race/Immigration

Economy/Economic situation

The Issues…

Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?

Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index


9%

10%

10%

12%

12%

13%

14%

23%

30%

39%

45%

8%

10%

13%

14%

11%

14%

15%

24%

31%

33%

47%

Defence/Foreign

Housing

Poverty/Inequality

Inflation/Prices

Pensions/Benefits

Education/Schools

Crime/Law & order

NHS/Hospitals

Unemployment

Race/Immigration

Economy/Economic situation

…in the marginals? Hello Nigel!

Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?

Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

All GB

Marginal seats


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ju

n-9

7S

ep

-97

Dec-9

7M

ar-

98

Ju

n-9

8S

ep

-98

De

c-9

8M

ar-

99

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

De

c-9

9M

ar-

00

Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

De

c-0

0M

ar-

01

Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

Dec-0

1M

ar-

02

Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

De

c-0

2M

ar-

03

Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

De

c-0

3M

ar-

04

Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

De

c-0

4M

ar-

05

Ju

n-0

5S

ep-0

5D

ec-0

5M

ar-

06

Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

De

c-0

6M

ar-

07

Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

De

c-0

7M

ar-

08

Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

De

c-0

8M

ar-

09

Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

De

c-0

9M

ar-

10

Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

De

c-1

0M

ar-

11

Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

De

c-1

1M

ar-

12

Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

De

c-1

2M

ar-

13

Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

De

c-1

3M

ar-

14

Economic Optimism reaches record levels…

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-56 -48

+23

Ind

ex

(g

et

be

tte

r m

inu

s g

et

wo

rse)

-64

+35



…but few think it has benefited them

As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5% compared to the same time last

year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far?


Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013

Don’t know

3%

11%

36%

48%

1%

A great deal

None at all

14%

84%


…leads to “none of the above”?

% who think .... would be the same under a Labour/Conservative government

Base: 1,003 British adults aged 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour government Conservative government

The number of immigrants

entering Britain 49% 52% The amount of tax you

personally pay 43% 52% Living standards for you

personally 56% 56%


Which brings

us to.....


UKIP: out of touch (for some) but touching a nerve

Now thinking about UKIP, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?


27%

26%

16%

25%

10%

9%

24%

15%

16%

19%

7%

6%

UKIP is a party thatis out of touch withthe modern world

UKIP is highlightingimportant issues

which other partiesaren't taking

seriously enough

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

40%

34%

43%

51%

Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014

Including 52% of Conservatives

and 44% of Labour voters


Targeting?


Newark?

Turnout = 71.5%

2010 GE

53.9%

22.3%

20.0%

3.8%

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

2014 Europeans

Turnout = 36.1%

31.2%

21.4% 6.1%

32.4%

8.9%

NB constituency profiles not exactly the same between parliamentary and European election boundaries


Only 51% of

voters for UKIP in

the European

elections say they

are likely to vote

for them in 2015

4,286 online interviews with people voting in European

Parliament elections 22-23 May 2014, lordashcroftpolls.com

Only 18% of

people in key

marginals say they

have received

campaign activity

from UKIP.......

....although this

rises to over

40% in:

• Dudley North

• Morley &

Outwood

• Great Grimsby

• Halifax

26,025 telephone interviews in 26 marginal constituencies 31

March – 18 May 2014, lordashcroftpolls.com

Will it last?


Four challenges

for the

Conservatives


The system is

massively against

them (see Roger) 1 Their vote share

(see Bob) 2


Remain the MOST

disliked party 3


Struggle outside the South

38%

23%

16%

16%

7%


The north is very red

28%

45%

10%

13% 4%


Not a “women problem”, but a younger women

problem “How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*

*All certain to vote


27 29

37

23 26

35 32

35 31

45 45

35

14 11

8 11 12 11

13 13 17

7 7 11

18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+

Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP

Men Women

Base 2,571British adults 18+ certain to vote, January – May 2014


The rise of UKIP 4


UKIP still picking up most from Conservatives – Pig

wrestling any one?

2014 UKIP Vote

Base: 300 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – May 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

35%

11% 13%

22%

4%

15%

2010 Con (or 13% of 2010Con vote)

2010 Labour (or 4% of2010 Labour vote)

2010 LibDem (or 9% of2010 LibDem vote)

2010 UKIP

2010 Other

2010 DNV/too young etc


Three challenges

for Labour


Their vote share too.... 1


0

10

20

30

40

50

Nov-0

3

Feb-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Aug

-04

No

v-0

4

Feb-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Aug

-05

Nov-0

5

Feb-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Aug

-06

Nov-0

6

Feb-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Aug

-07

Nov-0

7

Feb-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Aug

-08

No

v-0

8

Feb-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Aug

-09

No

v-0

9

Feb-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Aug

-10

Nov-1

0

Feb-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov-1

1

Feb-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

No

v-1

2

Feb-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

No

v-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour’s lead in decline….

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

34%

9%

31%

11%

Labour 2012

average: 41%

Labour 2014

average: 37%


Credibility of Ed

Miliband 2


Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low......

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on


Credibility on the

economy 3


The Conservatives hold the mantle of economic

credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

Dec-9

9M

ar-0

0Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

Dec-0

0M

ar-0

1Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

Dec-0

1M

ar-0

2Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

Dec-0

2M

ar-0

3Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

Dec-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

Dec-0

4M

ar-0

5Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

Dec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

Dec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

Dec-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

Dec-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

Dec-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

Dec-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

Dec-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

Dec-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-1

4


The Conservatives hold the mantle of economic

credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

Dec-9

9M

ar-0

0Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

Dec-0

0M

ar-0

1Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

Dec-0

1M

ar-0

2Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

Dec-0

2M

ar-0

3Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

Dec-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

Dec-0

4M

ar-0

5Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

Dec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

Dec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

Dec-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

Dec-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

Dec-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

Dec-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

Dec-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

Dec-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-1

4

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP


Lib Dems

suffering – but

will still have

many more MPs

than UKIP


…but are their supporters giving up?

How important, if at all, is it to you personally who wins the next General Election?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014

0 20 40 60

Liberal Democrat

UKIP

Conservative

Labour

24%

51%

51%

57%

%Very important


2015: The “War of the Weak”?

In 1993: 83% identify with one of

the three main parties

Now: 67% - 2015 even more

unpredictable than ever!


Thank you

[email protected]

+44 20 7347 3000

@benatipsosmori


James

O’Shaughnessy Chief Policy Adviser at Portland

Communications


Miranda Green Editor of The Day


Matthew Taylor Chief Executive of the

Royal Society of Arts


Q&A from audience


Thank you…

general election: one year out

News & Politics