geoshare workshop purdue, 11 sep 2014 what geoshare may do for us hermann lotze-campen
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Geoshare WorkshopPurdue, 11 Sep 2014
What Geoshare may do for us
Hermann Lotze-Campen
Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014
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Energy system
MAGICC(climate)
LPJmL (vegetation)
Climate change
Constraints (yields, water, land)
CO2
GHG emissionsAerosols
MAgPIE(land use)
Bioenergy costsLUC emissions
REMIND (energy)
Land use pattern
AlbedoExtreme eventsSea-level risey
Bioenergy demandCO2 price
Temp. change
Scenariosconstraints
Integrated Assessment Modelling at PIK
Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014
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Regional Demand
Population
Income / GDP
International Trade
Socio-Economic Data
- cost and investment data
Calories and Livestock Share
Self-Sufficiencies
ptb
1- ptb Comparative Advantage
Regional Supply
Biophysical inputs (LPJmL)
-crop yields-land / water constraints-vegetation and soil carbon
Cropping Patterns
Deforestation Rate
MAgPIE
Land Pools
based on FAO, IUCN and WRI
on 0.5° grid
on 0.5° grid
regional
Water Scarcity
Transport Costs (JRC)on 0.5° grid
MAgPIE overview
Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014
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MIP onclimate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2050
(AgMIP Global Economics Team)
Von Lampe et al., Ag.Econ. 2014
Nelson et al., PNAS, 2014
Special issue
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Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - data
• Acknowledging spatial and temporal variability (soil, water, productivity, climate impacts, emission factors, …)
• Bringing more geography into economics (land quality, transportation, market access) [e.g. precision farming]
• Linking monetary and biophysical dimensions
• Linking modelling outputs to poverty and food/nutrition security (where are the (poor) people?)
• Provision of (alternative) standardized input data sets
• Thinking beyond cropland: reducing uncertainties on all major landuse types (crop, pasture, forest, urban, …) and livestock
• Model validation, exploring of uncertainties, model improvement
• Harmonization of inputs for model intercomparisons
• Accessability, transparency, replicability of modelling results(e.g. AgMIP GlobEcon results, IAM SSP results)
(see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011)
Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014
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Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - workflows
• Integration of global and regional modelling approaches (e.g. on crop modelling, hydrology, CC adaptation) [and data sets]
• Linking local management options to large-scale assessments
• Standardizing the climate-biophysical-economics modelling chain for external users
• Linking the agriculture and energy sectors
• BUT: Who are the actual workflow users?
• Possible way forward: Provide "reduced" versions of complex models for selected workflows for external users?
• Can Geoshare/HUB be used for managing the AgMIP econ process?
• Options for distributed funding: e.g. German BMBF-funded project with link to Geoshare
(see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011)
Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014
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Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014
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AgMIP Global Economics modelling standards
• Definition of regions
• Definition of sectors/crop groups: wht, cgn, ric, osd, sug, CR5
• GDP, Population
• Agricultural productivity growth
• Conversion from grid to regions/countries
• Definition of output variables
• CSV files for inputs/outputs
• XLS pivot tables
• R code for post-processing
• Dropbox for data exchange
• Group management: provide inputs and collect outputs
• Needed: Software for iterative analysis/assessment of results