global energy perspectives to 2050 and beyond - tu wien · global energy perspectives to 2050 and...
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NebojNebojšša Nakia NakiććenovienoviććVienna University of Technology Vienna University of Technology xx
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [email protected]@eeg.tuwien.ac.at
International Conference within Austrian EU PresidencyInternational Conference within Austrian EU PresidencyEnergy Paths Energy Paths –– Horizon 2050, Horizon 2050, PalaisPalais AuerspergAuersperg, Vienna , Vienna –– 6 March 20066 March 2006
Global Energy PerspectivesGlobal Energy Perspectivesto 2050 and Beyondto 2050 and Beyond
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##22 20062006
Global Energy ChallengesGlobal Energy Challenges
Access to modern forms of energy Access to modern forms of energy (a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)
Growing demand for Growing demand for energy servicesenergy services
Security and reliability of supply Security and reliability of supply
Deep CODeep CO22 and GHG reductionsand GHG reductions
Investment in R&D and deploymentInvestment in R&D and deployment
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##33 20062006
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##44 20062006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Poun
ds (2
000
£)/ m
lum
en-h
ours Gaslight
Kerosene-light
Electric-light PricePrice
Energy serviceEnergy service
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource: : Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource: : Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Tri
llion
lum
en-h
ours
Electric-light
Gaslight
United KingdomUnited Kingdom
Kerosine-light
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Tri
llion
lum
en-h
ours
Electric - light
Gaslight
United KingdomUnited Kingdom
Kerosine-light
3
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##55 20062006
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource: : Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource: : Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Tri
llion
lum
en-h
ours
Electric - light
Gaslight
United KingdomUnited Kingdom
Kerosine-light
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##66 20062006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Poun
ds (2
000
£)/ m
lum
en-h
ours Gaslight
Kerosene-light
Electric-light PricePrice
Energy serviceEnergy service
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource: : Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource: : Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Tri
llion
lum
en-h
ours
Electric-light
Gaslight
United KingdomUnited Kingdom
Kerosine-light
4
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##77 20062006
Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1850 1900 1950 2000
Prim
ary
Ener
gy (
EJ)
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Renewable
NuclearMicrochip
Steam motor
Gasolinetube
CommercialNuclear
Television
aviation
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
energy
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Variations of the EarthVariations of the Earth’’s Surface Temperatures Surface Temperaturefor the past 140 yearsfor the past 140 years
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##99 20062006
Summary of Scenario CharacteristicsSummary of Scenario Characteristics
x3x3x4x4
<x1<x1x3x3
x1.5x1.5x2.5x2.5
<x3<x3x4x4
x1.5x1.5
FactorFactor
120120--160160
4040x1000x10000.040.04Mobility Mobility (km/person/day)(km/person/day)
0.30.3
1313
0.30.3
11
18001800
6.46.4
420420
3030
66
20002000 20502050FactorFactor
x20x20
x30x30
x100x100
x6x6
55--1515
COCO2 2 Emissions (Emissions (GtCGtC))
600600--10401040
Primary Energy (EJ)Primary Energy (EJ)
8585--110110
GDP (trillion 1990 $)GDP (trillion 1990 $)
99Population (billion)Population (billion)
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1010 20062006
Global Final Energy by FormGlobal Final Energy by FormIIASA IPCC SRES ScenariosIIASA IPCC SRES Scenarios
B1, A2
B1
A1
B2
A2
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fina
l Ene
rgy
Shar
es (%
)
B2, A1
Grids (electricity, gas, district heat, hydrogen)
Liquids(oil products, methanol, ethanol)
Solids (biomass, coal)
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1111 20062006 14
Carbon Reservoirs
BiomassBiomass~500 ~500 GtCGtC
SoilsSoils~1,500 ~1,500 GtCGtC
Atmosphere 800 GtC (2004)
OilOil~270 ~270 GtCGtC
N. GasN. Gas~260 ~260 GtCGtC
Unconventional Fossil Fuels15,000 to 40,000 GtC
CoalCoal5,000 to 8,000 5,000 to 8,000 GtCGtC
Source: Edmonds, 2005Source: Edmonds, 2005
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1212 20062006
Methane HydrateMethane Hydrate
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1313 2006200616
0
10
20
30
Gas CC Coal Wind Hydro Nuclear Solar-Thermal
SolarPV
ELECTRICITY COSTSC
ENTS
PER
kW
h
Source: Kheshgi, Exxon Mobil (2002)
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1414 20062006
Evolution of Global Primary EnergyEvolution of Global Primary Energy
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Global Mean Temperature ChangeGlobal Mean Temperature ChangeSix illustrative SRES scenarios, full range Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range
s
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1616 20062006
The Innovation Chain
• Research and Development• Demonstration projects• Early deployment (cost buy-down)• Widespread dissemination
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1717 20062006
Brazil Brazil –– Ethanol Learning CurveEthanol Learning Curve
0
50
100
150
200
0 10 20 30
Cumulative production 106bbl
Producer price
Regression
Oil price
1978 1985 1988 1990 1995Data: Goldenberg, 1996
Cumulativesubsidy1billion $
0.6 billion $
30 % cost reductionfor each doublingof cum. production
0
50
100
150
200
0 10 20 30
Cumulative production 106bbl
Producer price
Regression
Oil price
1978 1985 1988 1990 1995Data: Goldenberg, 1996
Cumulativesubsidy1billion $
0.6 billion $0.3 billion $ ?
30 % cost reductionfor each doublingof cum. production
0
50
100
150
200
0 10 20 30
Cumulative production 106bbl
Producer price
Regression
Oil price
1978 1985 1988 1990 1995Data: Goldenberg, 1996
Cumulativesubsidy1billion $
0.6 billion $0.3 billion $ ?
30 % cost reductionfor each doublingof cum. production
0
50
100
150
200
0 10 20 30Cumulative production 10 6 bbl
Oil-
equi
vale
nt p
rice
$/bb
l
Producer price
Regression
Oil price
1978 1985 1988 1990 1995
Estimated
30 % cost reductionfor each doublingof cum. production
Source: Goldemberg, 1996
??$2billion“Buy-Down”
Source: Source: GrGrüüblerbler, 2002, 2002
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1818 20062006
http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/06442.jpghttp://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/06442.jpg
UsinaUsina Santa Elisa mill in Santa Elisa mill in SertaozinhoSertaozinho, Brazil, Brazil
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1919 20062006
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Number of doublings (installed capacity)
Cos
t ind
ex ($
/kW
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Nuclear Reactors France 1977-2000
PVs Japan 1976-1995
0.1%
0.1%
50% interval
90% interval
mean learning rate(115 case studies):-20% per doubling
Technological Uncertainties: Technological Uncertainties: Learning rates (push) and market growth (pull)Learning rates (push) and market growth (pull)
COCO22 Emissions from Scenarios with Technological UncertaintyEmissions from Scenarios with Technological Uncertainty
5 10 15 20 25 30
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Set of 130,000 Scenarios
GtC in 2100
Rel
ativ
e Fr
eque
ncy
in P
erce
nt
Gritsevkyi&NakicenovicGritsevkyi&Nakicenovic ##2020 IIASA 2000IIASA 2000
Optimal set of13,250 scenarios
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2121 200620069
RENEWABLESHoffert et al., Science, 2002
Nakicenovic # 21 IIASA&VUT 2003
Existing and Planned ProjectsExisting and Planned ProjectsSleipner Project, saline formation, North SeaWeyburn, EOR, Saskatchewan, CanadaIn Salah, gas reservoir, Algeria (development)Snohvit, off-shore saline formation, North SeaGorgon, saline formation, Australia (planning)
Nakicenovic #22 Source: Sally Benson, 2003
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2323 20062006
Source: AirbusSource: Airbus
Hydrogen Airplane DesignHydrogen Airplane Design
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2424 20062006
A Future Energy SystemA Future Energy System
Source: Source: WuppertalWuppertal, 2004, 2004
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2525 20062006
Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight
Telegraph Steam Locomotive Coal Coal mine Coal fields
Interntet, Mobile Phone
ICE Automobile Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil
Convergence Energy, Mobility
InformationHydrogen
Natural gas / fossilsSMR,
decarbonization
Electrolysis
Sunlight
Wind
Uranium
1770s
1870s
1970s
2070s
Energy Services Through Time
Biomass
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
#25 Source: David Scott, 2004
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2626 20062006
Global Energy Assessment:Global Energy Assessment:Towards a more Sustainable FutureTowards a more Sustainable Future
•• The The magnitudemagnitude of the change required is of the change required is hugehuge
•• The challenge is to find a way forward The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues that addresses all the issues simultaneouslysimultaneously
•• A paradigm shift is needed: energy endA paradigm shift is needed: energy end--use efficiency, renewables, new nuclear use efficiency, renewables, new nuclear and carbon capture and storage.and carbon capture and storage.