global markets roundup federal reserve: policy …2019/05/11 · union strike (the payroll count in...

See page 12 for disclosures and analyst certification

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-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

Sep-

14

Mar

-15

Sep-

15

Mar

-16

Sep-

16

Mar

-17

Sep-

17

Mar

-18

Sep-

18

Mar

-19

Sep-

19

Fed Long-term Real Neutral rate Real Fed Funds Rate%%

Federal Reserve: Policy Stance based on Interest Rates

Source: NBG Research, Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections Long Run Real Neutral Rate = Fed Estimates – 2% Inflation TargetReal Fed Funds Rate = Fed Rate – Core PCE YoY

Tight monetary policy

Easy monetary policy

Easy monetary policy

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Real Fed Funds Rate (Effective Funds Rate-Core PCE)

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg, US Recessions in Grey

%%

Federal Reserve: Policy Stance & Recessions

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

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Global Markets Roundup

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | November 5, 2019

The Federal Reserve cuts rates for a 3rd time this year to 150-175bps, with US equity markets

hitting a record high

Ilias TsirigotakisAC

Head of Global

Markets Research

210-3341517

[email protected]

Panagiotis Bakalis

210-3341545

[email protected]

Vasiliki Karagianni

210-3341548

[email protected]

Table of Contents

Overview_p1

Economics & Markets_p2,3 Outlook_p4

Forecasts_p5 Event Calendar_p6

Markets Monitor_p7

ChartRoom_p8,9

Market Valuation_p10,11

The Fed cut its policy rate for a 3rd consecutive time by 25bps to 1.5%-1.75% at its meeting on 30th

October, with two members (out of ten) opposing the cut. Chair Powell cited that monetary policy

“is likely to remain appropriate”. Moreover, the post-meeting statement infers that the Committee

will assess the appropriate path of the FFR going forward. Looking forward, Fed statement, together

with stronger-than-expected NFP growth indicate that the cycle of insurance rate cuts since July is

likely over.

Indeed, nonfarm payrolls rose by 128k in October, outpacing consensus expectations by a wide

margin and the ISM manufacturing demonstrated signs of stabilization (up by 0.5 pts to 48.3), albeit

remaining in contractionary territory for a 3rd consecutive month. Moreover, real GDP growth came

in line with trend (circa 2%) in Q3:2019, with consumers the key players and residential investment

adding to growth for the first time in seven quarters (see Economics). All in all, financial markets

price-in another 35 bps in rate cuts by the end of 2020.

There were also some further encouraging signs that global growth is bottoming out. The

Markit/Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI rose by 0.3 pts to 51.7 in October, albeit the more

domestic-oriented NHS Chinese manufacturing PMI declined by 0.5 pts to 49.3. Moreover, the ratio

for euro area manufacturing new orders to inventory subcomponents (a leading indicator of the

headline index) rose above 1 for the first time in a year. However, the headline PMI manufacturing

index rose only slightly to 45.9 in October from a 7-year low of 45.7 in September.

In a similar vein, euro area growth remains lackluster, with real GDP growth of +0.7 in Q3:2019

(annualized rate – see Economics). All told, fading tail risks stemming from trade and political factors

(i.e. Brexit), combined with the dovish pivot from major central banks, could support a rebound in

growth in 2020 following a weak 2019, which is expected at a post-Global Financial Crisis low of 3%.

Reflecting the above developments, equity markets were higher during the past week, with the SPX

over-performing and recording a historical high of 3067 (+1.5% wow and 22% YtD). The earnings

season for Q3:2019, with 70% of constituents having reported, has delivered: i) positive EPS

surprises, as 75% of SPX companies have surpassed consensus estimates (above the 5-year average

of 72%) with the mean EPS surprise at +3.8% (below the 5-year average of +4.9%); and ii) actual EPS

growth of -2.6% y-o-y following estimates of -5% at the beginning of the earnings season.

As weak corporate profitability continues in Q3, following broadly flat EPS growth in H1:2019,

consensus expects a strong rebound in H1:2020, in tandem with fading trade risks and a pick-up in

economic activity. These positive earnings expectations are well built into equity prices and, as a

result, absolute valuations appear elevated. Indeed, the SPX 12-month forward PE ratio at 17.4x

hovers 16% or 1.03x STDEV above its 15-year average. On the other hand, in relative terms, equity

valuations appear less expensive when compared with fixed income, with dividend yields above

government bond yields in all markets ex-EM. On a company level, circa 60% of SPX constituents

offer a dividend yield above benchmark US Treasury yields as well (see graphs on page 3).

mailto:[email protected]


O F G R E E C E

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

2

Stronger-than-expected job creation in the US in

October…

Job growth in the US surprised positively in October.

Specifically, nonfarm payrolls increased by 128k. Although the

latest outcome was below the September reading (180k), it was

nonetheless negatively distorted by the United Auto Workers’

union strike (the payroll count in the motor vehicles & parts

industry decreased by 42k, as workers missed payments in the

survey period due to the strike) and was also well above consensus

estimates for 85k. Furthermore, net revisions for the previous two

months were sharply positive (+95k). Overall, the less volatile 3-

month average stood at a healthy 176k (188k in September). The

unemployment rate rose slightly, to 3.6% versus a 50-year low of

3.5% in September. This was due to the labor force participation

rateposting a similar increase to 63.3%, the highest since August

2013, as firm labor market conditions led previously discouraged

persons to seek employment. At the same time, a broader measure

of labor market slack, the U-6 unemployment rate (which includes

the unemployed, part-time workers for economic reasons, and

those workers marginally attached to the labor force), was 7.0% in

October, up slightly compared with the previous month (6.9%),

which was the lowest since December 2000 (-0.5 pps yoy).

…while wage growth remains healthy

Wages maintain their healthy trend. Specifically, the monthly

pace of increase for average hourly earnings was +0.2% mom in

October, compared with a flat monthly outcome in September. The

annual pace of increase for average hourly earnings was stable at

3.0% yoy, in line with consensus expectations. Recall that the

annual change in the less volatile wages of production and non-

supervisory employees (84% of total -- that also have a higher

propensity to consume) continued to overperform, stable at a solid

+3.5% yoy, while high earners saw their compensation accelerating

modestly to 0.9% yoy from 0.7% yoy. Other employment

compensation metrics further argue in favor of a robust trend.

Indeed, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3:19 was up by

+0.7% qoq (+0.6% qoq in Q2:19), while the annual rate of growth

(Q3:19 versus Q3:18) was largely unchanged at +2.8% yoy.

US GDP growth remains in line with trend of +2%,

mostly due to strong private consumption

Real GDP growth in Q3:19 came out at 1.9% (2.0% qoq saar in

Q2:19), modestly above consensus estimates for 1.6%. Annual

growth was 2.0% yoy compared with 2.3% yoy in Q2:19. The main

takeaways from the composition of GDP were in line with

expectations, with strong private consumption being the main

driver of growth and business investment remaining on a

downward path in view of decelerating global growth and trade

policy uncertainties. Specifically, personal consumption growth

was +2.9% qoq saar (2 pps contribution to the headline figure), a

still solid reading, albeit down compared with the strong +4.6%

qoq saar in Q2:19, which was a joint-highest outcome since Q4:14

(the same performance was recorded in Q4:17). General

government consumption was up by 2.0% qoq saar (+0.3 pps to

overall GDP growth), following an exceptionally high +4.8% qoq

saar in the previous quarter. Notably, residential investment

increased by 5.1% qoq saar, adding 0.2 pps to the headline figure

after having posted six consecutive quarters of decline (by an

average of -3.6% qoq saar). On the other hand, business

investment declined for a 2nd consecutive quarter, down by 3.0%

qoq saar, compared with -1.0% qoq saar in Q2:19. It should also be

noted though that circa half of the aforementioned decrease was

due to a continued normalization in the mining exploration, shafts

& wells component of investment in structures (-29% qoq saar),

following a sharp rise during 2018. Net exports were also a drag

on overall GDP growth (-0.1 pp), with a poor performance in both

exports (+0.7% qoq saar) and imports (+1.2% qoq saar). Finally,

inventories were largely neutral to headline growth in Q3:19.

Euro area PMIs suggest a continuation of subdued

economic activity

Euro area PMIs were largely stable in October, with the

composite index at 50.2, only slightly above the

expansion/contraction threshold of 50. The downturn in

manufacturing continues (45.9 versus 45.7 previously | in

contractionary territory for a 9th consecutive month) and the

reading in services (51.8 compared with 51.6 in the previous

month) remains unimpressive. Meanwhile, consumer confidence

declined in October (-1.1 pt to -7.6), albeit remaining satisfactory

(long-term average of -11.5). Nevertheless, the aforementioned

business surveys included some disconcerting details regarding

the outlook for the labor market, the improvement of which is the

main supporting pillar for private consumption. In the event, the

employment component in the composite PMI was at its lowest

since December 2014. Recall that the unemployment rate was

stable at an 11-year low of 7.5% in September, with the pace of

decline having eased slightly (-0.5 pps yoy versus a pace of -0.9%

yoy a year ago). Overall, economic activity appears to have

entered Q4:19 on a soft note, following anemic real GDP

growth of +0.7% qoq saar (+1.1% yoy) in Q3:19.

Euro area bank credit conditions remain loose

The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for Q3:19 suggests that the

credit environment in the euro area remains supportive of

economic activity. Specifically, euro area banks reported a slight

loosening in credit standards (i.e. banks’ internal guidelines or loan

approval criteria) on loans to corporations (-2%) in Q3:19, with the

easing effect from increased pressure from competition offsetting

the tightening effect from a less favorable risk perception related

to the economic outlook. Notably, since Q2:14, there has been a

substantial net easing. Recall that a negative reading indicates that

the fraction of banks easing standards is greater than those

tightening. Regarding households, developments were mixed.

Indeed, standards loosened slightly for mortgage loans (-2%) and

tightened moderately for consumer credit (+3%) in Q3:19. For

Q4:19, euro area banks expect credit standards to remain broadly

unchanged across all loan categories. Demand for bank loans

remained in positive territory. Regarding corporates, the share of

banks reporting an increase in loan demand, minus the share of

banks reporting a decline, was +1% in Q3:19. As far as households

are concerned, the respective figure for consumer credit (credit

cards, overdrafts, auto loans, student loans, etc.) was +8%, mainly

on the back of low interest rates. Finally, mortgage loan demand

rose substantially, with the net share of banks reporting an

increase at +15%, due to low interest rates and improvement in

the perception of housing market prospects. Recall that house

prices in the euro area rose by 4.2% yoy in Q2:19. Actual bank

lending growth supports the view for strong loan demand. Indeed,

overall private sector borrowing stood at +3.7% yoy in September,

just 0.1 pp below the 10½-year high in the previous month.


O F G R E E C E

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section


3

Quote of the week: “So, we think that the current stance of

policy is likely to remain appropriate, as long as incoming

information about the economy is broadly consistent with

our outlook… There's plenty of risk left, but I'd have to say

that the risks seem to have subsided”, Fed Chair, Jerome

Powell, October 30th 2019.

Equities

Global equity markets rose in the past week, supported by strong economic

data, better-than-expected earnings reports and positive US-China trade

headlines at the end of the week. Overall, the MSCI ACWI ended the week up

by 1.3% (+18% ytd), with developed markets (+1.3% wow) and their emerging

markets peers (+1.3% wow) recording equal gains. In the US, the S&P500 rose

by 1.5% wow, recording an all-time high of 3067 on Friday. The health care

sector over-performed (+3%), supported by the positive EPS surprises reported

by Pfizer ($0.75 vs. $0.62), Merck ($1.51 vs. $1.24), Celgene ($2.99 vs. $2.70) and

Bristol-Myers Squibb ($1.17 vs. $1.07). Regarding the Q3 earnings season, out of

the 359 companies that have reported results so far, c. 75% have exceeded

analyst estimates. Note that analyst expectations for EPS growth in Q3:19 stand

at -2.6% yoy (-0.4% in the previous quarter) from -3.8% in the past week.

Looking forward, analysts now expect a decline in earnings in the fourth quarter

(-0.8% yoy), followed by earnings growth of +5% to +7% for Q1:2020 and

Q2:2020. On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurostoxx rose by 0.4% wow,

with Banks recording strong losses (-2.6% wow), on the back of lower yields.

Regarding the Q3 earnings season, out of the 149 companies that have reported

results so far, c. 55% have exceeded analyst estimates. Note that analyst

expectations for EPS growth in Q3:19 stand at -1% yoy (-0.1% in the previous

quarter) from 0% in the past week. In China, the CSI 300 rose by 1.4% wow, with

the bulk of the increase occurring on Friday (+1.7%), following stronger-than-

expected PMI data.

Fixed Income Government bond yields declined in the past week, following the Fed’s rate

cut and renewed concerns about US-China trade talks. However, they rose

on Friday, as stronger-than-expected economic data (US, China) eased

demand for safe-haven assets. Specifically, the US 10-year yield declined by 9

bps wow to 1.71% (+2 bps on Friday), while its 2-year counterpart fell by 7 bps

wow to 1.55% (+3 bps on Friday), as the Fed delivered its third cut this year (FFR

now at 1.5%-1.75%). Similarly in the UK, the 10-year yield fell by 2 bps wow to

0.66% (+3 bps on Friday), albeit Gilts rose by 14 bps in October due to reduced

uncertainty regarding a no-deal Brexit. In Germany, the 10 year Bund yield fell

by 2 bps wow to -0.38% (+3 bps on Friday). Note that the October yield increase

led the pool of negative-yielding euro area government bonds to the lowest

level since June (€5.2 tn), albeit it remains at elevated levels. Corporate bonds

spreads in the High Yield spectrum rose in the past week, as investors were

in risk-off mode (ex-Friday). Specifically, the USD HY spread rose by 20 bps to

409 bps, while its euro area counterpart rose by 7 bps to 370 bps. In the

Investment Grade spectrum, spreads were broadly stable both is the US (116

bps) and in the euro area (102 bps).

FX and Commodities In foreign exchange markets, the British Pound continued to appreciate in

the past week, as the probability of a no-deal Brexit has decreased. Note

that Sterling has increased by 7% against the USD since September lows and by

5% against the euro. Markets are expected to remain nervous ahead of the

December 12 election. Overall, Sterling rose by 0.8% wow against the USD to

$1.294 and by 0.2% wow against the euro to €/0.863. Meanwhile, the USD lost

ground across the board, post Fed (-0.8% against the EUR to $1.117).

In commodities, oil prices were broadly stable on a weekly basis, as the

initial decline due to the increase in US oil inventories was offset by

improved demand prospects following potentially positive developments

in US-China trade war. Specifically, US oil inventories rose by +5.7 million

barrels to 439 million barrels for the week ending October 25th. Overall, Brent

ended the week stable at $61.7/barrel (+3.6% on Friday) and WTI fell slightly by

0.5% to $56.2/barrel (+3.7% on Friday).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

19

85

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86

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19

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19

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99

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02

20

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20

07

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20

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20

11

20

13

20

15

20

16

20

18

% of S&P500 Stocks

Source: NBG Research, Thomson Reuters Datastream

Percent of S&P500 Stocks with Dividend Yield > 10Y Treasury Yield

Graph 3.

Graph 2.

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Global Government Bond Yield Global Dividend Yield %%

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg, Barclays, Thomson Reuters Datastream

Global Government Bond Yield & Dividend Yield

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Dividend Yield - Bond Yield%

Equity Yields more than Bond

Bond Yields more than Equity

Dividend Yield Minus Government Bond Yield

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream

Graph 1.

NBG Global Markets Roundup | NBG 12-Month View & Key Factors for Global Markets


4


O F G R E E C E

Eq

uit

y M

ark

ets

G

overn

men

t B

on

ds

Fo

reig

n E

xch

an

ge

US Euro Area Japan UK

Reduced short-term tail

risks

Higher core bond yields

Current account surplus

▬ Sluggish growth

▬ Deflation concerns

▬ The ECB’s monetary

policy to remain extra

loose (Targeted-LTROs,

ABSs, Quantitative

Easing)

Safe-haven demand

▬ Fed is expected to cut rates

in H2:2019

▬ Mid-2018 rally probably out

of steam

Safe haven demand

More balanced economic

growth recovery (long-

term)

Inflation is bottoming out

▬ Additional Quantitative

Easing by the Bank of

Japan if inflation does not

approach 2%

Transitions phase

negotiations

The BoE is expected to

increase short-term policy

rates assuming WA deal

▬ Sizeable Current account

deficit

▬ Elevated Policy

uncertainty to remain due

to the outcome of the

Referendum and the

negotiating process

Valuations appear

excessive compared

with long-term

fundamentals

▬ Political Risks

▬ Fragile growth outlook

▬ Medium-term inflation

expectations remain

low

▬ ECB QE net purchases

▬ ECB QE “stock” effect

Valuations appear rich with

term-premium below 0%

Underlying inflation

pressures if Fed seek

makeup strategies

▬ Global search for yield by

non-US investors continues

▬ Safe haven demand

▬ Fed is expected to cut rates

in H2:2019

Elevated Policy



Brexit negotiating process

Inflation overshooting due

to GBP weakness feeds

through inflation

expectations

The BoE is expected to

increase short-term policy

rates assuming WA deal

▬ Slowing economic growth

post-Brexit

Sizeable fiscal deficits

Restructuring efforts to

be financed by fiscal

policy measures

▬ Safe haven demand

▬ Extremely dovish

central bank

▬ Yield-targeting of 10-

Year JGB at around 0%

Still high equity risk

premium relative to other

regions

Credit conditions gradual

turn more favorable

Small fiscal loosening in

2019

▬ 2020 EPS estimates may

turn pessimistic due to

plateuning economic

growth

▬ Political uncertainty (Italy,

Brexit) could intensify

Fiscal loosening will support

the economy & companies’

earnings

2019 EPS growth

expectations have stabilized

Cash-rich corporates will

lead to share buybacks and

higher dividends (de-

equitization)

▬ Peaking profit margins

▬ Protectionism and trade

wars

Still aggressive QE and “yield-

curve” targeting by the BoJ

Upward revisions in corporate

earnings

▬ Signs of policy fatigue

regarding structural reforms

and fiscal discipline

▬ Strong appetite for foreign

assets

▬ JPY appreciation in a risk-off

scenario could hurt exporters

65% of FTSE100 revenues

from abroad

Undemanding valuations

in relative terms

High UK exposure to the

commodities sector

assuming the oil rally re-

emerges

▬ Elevated Policy



Brexit negotiating process

Neutral Neutral/Positive Neutral

Slightly higher yields

expected

Higher yields expected

Stable yields expected

Higher yields expected but

with Brexit risk premia

working on both directions

Broadly Flat EUR

against the USD with

upside risks towards

$1.15

Neutral/Negative

Higher GBP expected but

with Brexit risk premia

working on both directions

Broadly Flat USD

against the EUR with

upside risks towards

$1.15

Slightly higher JPY

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic & Markets Forecasts


5


O F G R E E C E

2017a Q1:18a Q2:18a Q3:18a Q4:18a 2018a Q1:19a Q2:19a Q3:19a Q4:19f 2019f

2,3 2,9 3,2 3,1 2,5 2,9 2,7 2,3 2,0 2,1 2,3

- 2,6 3,5 2,9 1,1 - 3,1 2,0 1,9 1,4 -

Private Consumption 2,6 1,7 4,0 3,5 1,4 3,0 1,1 4,6 2,9 1,9 2,6

Government Consumption 0,7 1,9 2,6 2,1 -0,4 1,7 2,9 4,8 2,0 1,4 2,3

Investment 4,2 5,5 5,2 0,7 2,7 4,6 3,2 -1,4 -1,3 5,1 1,6

Residential 3,5 -5,2 -3,7 -4,0 -4,6 -1,5 -1,1 -2,9 5,1 1,5 -1,8

Non-residential 4,4 8,8 7,9 2,1 4,8 6,4 4,4 -1,0 -3,0 5,0 2,5

Inventories Contribution 0,0 0,2 -1,5 2,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 -1,0 0,0 0,0 0,2

Net Exports Contribution -0,4 0,0 0,7 -2,4 -0,4 -0,4 0,8 -0,8 -0,1 -0,6 -0,3

Exports 3,5 0,8 5,8 -6,2 1,5 3,0 4,2 -5,7 0,7 4,3 0,1

Imports 4,7 0,6 0,3 8,6 3,5 4,4 -1,5 0,0 1,2 6,6 1,9

Inflation (3) 2,1 2,2 2,7 2,6 2,2 2,4 1,6 1,8 1,7 2,1 1,8

2017a Q1:18a Q2:18a Q3:18a Q4:18a 2018a Q1:19a Q2:19a Q3:19f Q4:19f 2019f

2,5 2,6 2,2 1,6 1,2 1,9 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 1,2

- 1,1 1,5 0,8 1,4 - 1,7 0,8 0,8 0,7 -

Private Consumption 1,8 1,7 0,7 0,7 1,5 1,4 1,4 0,8 1,8 1,2 1,2

Government Consumption 1,5 0,6 1,5 0,5 1,6 1,1 1,7 1,4 0,9 1,4 1,4

Investment 3,8 1,7 5,1 3,1 6,5 2,4 1,9 24,6 -18,5 1,4 4,1

Inventories Contribution 0,1 0,4 0,1 0,6 -0,8 0,0 -1,1 -0,1 -0,3 -0,2 -0,4

Net Exports Contribution 0,5 -0,7 -0,3 -0,9 -0,3 0,4 1,4 -4,6 4,6 -0,5 -0,2

Exports 5,7 -2,3 4,0 1,6 3,6 3,3 4,3 0,7 0,9 1,5 2,5

Imports 5,0 -1,1 5,1 3,9 4,7 2,7 1,6 11,5 -8,3 2,7 3,2

Inflation 1,5 1,3 1,7 2,1 1,9 1,8 1,4 1,4 0,9 1,2 1,3

a: Actual, f: Forecasts, 1. Seasonally adjusted YoY growth rate, 2. Seasonally adjusted annualized QoQ growth rate, 3. Year-to-year average % change

Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar) (2)

Euro Area

Real GDP Growth (YoY)

Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar)

United States

Real GDP Growth (YoY) (1)

Economic Forecasts

November 1st 3-month 6-month 12-month November 1st 3-month 6-month 12-month

Germany -0,38 -0,50 -0,40 -0,30 Euro area 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

US 1,71 1,80 1,90 2,00 US 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,50

UK 0,66 0,65 0,68 0,76 UK 0,75 0,70 0,65 0,60

Japan -0,18 -0,21 -0,19 -0,15 Japan -0,10 -0,14 -0,14 -0,14

Currency November 1st 3-month 6-month 12-month November 1st 3-month 6-month 12-month

EUR/USD 1,12 1,13 1,15 1,15 USD/JPY 108 106 104 103

EUR/GBP 0,86 0,87 0,87 0,87 GBP/USD 1,29 1,30 1,32 1,32

EUR/JPY 121 119 119 118

Official Rate (%)10-Yr Gov. Bond Yield (%)

Forecasts at end of period

Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Forecasts

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic News & Events Calendar


6


O F G R E E C E

Tuesday 29 Wednesday 30 Thursday 31

US S A P US S A P US S A P

ADP Employment Change (k) October 110 + 115 93 Initial Jobless Claims (k) October 26 215 - 218 213

GDP (QoQ, annualized) Q3:19 1.6% + 1.9% 2.0% Continuing Claims (k) October 19 1679 - 1690 1683

Personal income (MoM) September 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%

Personal spending (MoM) September 0.3% - 0.2% 0.2%

Pending home sales (MoM) September 0.9% + 1.5% 1.4% PCE Core Deflator (YoY) September 1.7% 1.7% 1.8%

UK PCE Deflator (YoY) September 1.4% - 1.3% 1.4%

JAPAN JAPAN

Retail sales (MoM) September 3.5% + 7.1% 4.6% Industrial Production (MoM) September 0.4% + 1.4% -1.2%

Retail sales (YoY) September 6.0% + 9.1% 1.8% Industrial Production (YoY) September -0.1% + 1.1% -4.7%

EURO AREA

Business Climate Indicator October -0.24 + -0.19 -0.23

Economic confidence indicator October 101.1 + 100.8 101.7 EURO AREA

Unemployment Rate September 7.4% - 7.5% 7.5%

GDP (QoQ) Q3:19 0.1% + 0.2% 0.2%

GDP (YoY) Q3:19 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%

CPI (YoY) October 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%

Friday 1 Monday 4 Core CPI (YoY) October 1.0% + 1.1% 1.0%

US S A P US S A P GERMANY

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) October 85 + 128 180 Factory Goods Orders September -0.5% - -0.6% -0.1% Retail sales (MoM) September 0.2% - 0.1% -0.1%

Change in Private Payrolls (k) October 80 + 131 167 UK Retail sales (YoY) September 3.3% + 3.4% 3.1%

Unemployment rate October 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% CHINA

Average Hourly Earnings MoM October 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Manufacturing PMI October 49.8 - 49.3 49.8

Average Hourly Earnings YoY October 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Average weekly hours (hrs) October 34.4 34.4 34.4

Underemployment rate October 7.0% 6.9%

Labor Force Participation Rate October 63.1% + 63.3% 63.2%

ISM Manufacturing October 48.9 - 48.3 47.8

Construction spending (MoM) September 0.2% + 0.5% -0.3%

UK

JAPAN

Unemployment rate September 2.2% + 2.4% 2.2%

CHINA

Caixin Manufacturing PMI October 51.0 + 51.7 51.4

Tuesday 5 Wednesday 6 Thursday 7

US S A P US S A P US S A P

ISM non-manufacturing October 53.5 .. 52.6 Initial Jobless Claims (k) November 2 215 .. 218

UK Continuing Claims (k) October 26 1680 .. 1690

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI October 49.7 .. 49.5 UK

EURO AREA

Retail sales (MoM) September 0.0% .. 0.3%

Retail sales (YoY) September 2.4% .. 2.1%

EURO AREA

GERMANY

Industrial Production (MoM) September -0.4% .. 0.3%

Industrial Production (YoY) September -4.4% .. -4.0%

Friday 8 Monday 11

US S A P UK S A P

GDP (QoQ) Q3:19 .. .. -0.2%

GDP (YoY) Q3:19 .. .. 1.3%

JAPAN GDP (MoM) September .. .. -0.1%

Leading Index September 92.2 .. 91.9 Private Consumption (QoQ) Q3:19 .. .. 0.4%

Coincident Index September 101.0 .. 99.0 Government Spending QoQ Q3:19 .. .. 1.1%

CHINA Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q3:19 .. .. -0.9%

Exports (YoY) October -4.5% .. -3.2% Industrial Production (MoM) September .. .. -0.6%

Imports (YoY) October -8.0% .. -8.5% Industrial Production (YoY) September .. .. -1.8%JAPAN

Eco Watchers Current Survey October .. .. 46.7Eco Watchers Outlook Survey October .. .. 36.9CHINA

CPI (YoY) October 3.3% .. 3.0%

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

S: Bloomberg Consensus Analysts Survey, A: Actual Outcome, P: Previous Outcome

October 30 1.75% 1.75%

Economic News Calendar for the period: October 29 - November 11, 2019

Personal consumption (QoQ,

annualized)Q3:19 2.6% 2.9% 4.6%

48.3

43.3

Bank of England Inflation Report

BoE announces its intervention

rateNovember 7 0.75%

48.2 49.6

2.3%

95.5

Nationwide House Px NSA YoY October 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ,

annualized)

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing

SAOctober

University of Michigan consumer

confidenceNovember 95.5 ..

ECB publishes its Economic

bulletin

EU Commission Economic

Forecasts

+

+

+

+

Q3:19 0.9% ..

S&P Case/Shiller house price

index 20 (YoY)

Conference board consumer

confidence

August

August 128.0

2.10% 2.03%

125.9 126.3

2.03%

Fed announces its intervention

rate

-

-

1.50%

Unit labor costs (QoQ,

annualized)Q3:19 2.2% .. 2.6%

Markit/CIPS UK Construction

PMIOctober 44.1 44.2

.. 0.75%

Bank of Japan announces its

intervention rateOctober 31 -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%

rat

In the Euro area, attention turns to retail sales for September. On a

monthly basis retail sales are expected flat compared with the previous

month vs +0.3% in August. On Thursday, European Commission

publishes its Autumn economic forercasts.

In the UK, no policy breakthrough is expected in the upcoming meeting

(November 7th), in anticipation of more clarity regarding Brexit as well as

the nature of, and the transition to, the UK’s eventual trading

relationship with the EU. Apart from the quarterly economic projections

(Inflation Report), of note will be the post-meeting comments from

Carney and the minutes of the meeting for possible hints as to how the

BoE assesses recent developments in the context of the prospects for a

smooth Brexit and the subsequent implications for monetary policy.

Economic Calendar

0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

Jan-

10

Jul-

10

Jan-

11

Jul-

11

Jan-

12

Jul-

12

Jan-

13

Jul-

13

Jan-

14

Jul-

14

Jan-

15

Jul-

15

Jan-

16

Jul-

16

Jan-

17

Jul-

17

Jan-

18

Jul-

18

Jan-

19

Jul-

19

BoE Rate% %

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

Bank of England Rate

Forecasts

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Financial Markets Monitor


7


O F G R E E C E

Developed MarketsCurrent

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)Emerging Markets

Current

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

US S&P 500 3067 1,5 22,3 11,9 18,9 MSCI Emerging Markets 58302 1,1 9,1 7,8 -3,6

Japan NIKKEI 225 22851 0,2 14,2 5,4 1,9 MSCI Asia 860 1,4 9,7 8,3 -6,6

UK FTSE 100 7302 -0,3 8,5 2,6 -2,5 China 79 1,5 10,7 8,1 -9,5

Canada S&P/TSX 16594 1,2 15,9 9,5 3,5 Korea 655 0,7 8,5 7,0 -16,2

Hong Kong Hang Seng 27101 1,6 4,9 6,6 -5,2 MSCI Latin America 96397 0,4 11,5 7,9 14,8

Euro area EuroStoxx 391 0,4 19,2 10,6 -2,2 Brazil 345610 0,7 19,6 17,7 37,8

Germany DAX 30 12961 0,5 22,7 13,0 -3,7 Mexico 40448 0,7 4,5 -4,1 -11,4

France CAC 40 5762 0,7 21,8 13,3 4,5 MSCI Europe 6195 1,4 16,7 17,6 17,1

Italy FTSE/MIB 22934 1,4 25,2 19,5 -0,3 Russia 1331 2,1 25,3 24,8 43,9

Spain IBEX-35 9328 -1,1 9,2 4,2 -11,2 Turkey 1328320 -1,9 6,1 5,1 -15,1

Equity Markets (in local currency)

in US Dollar termsCurrent

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)in local currency

Current

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

Energy 189,6 -0,5 3,7 -10,3 -11,2 Energy 195,5 -0,7 3,4 -9,9 -9,9

Materials 260,0 1,2 14,2 6,0 -4,2 Materials 250,6 0,8 14,3 6,4 -2,4

Industrials 269,6 1,9 22,6 13,1 6,3 Industrials 267,3 1,7 22,8 12,8 6,6

Consumer Discretionary 268,7 0,7 20,4 11,1 17,9 Consumer Discretionary 259,6 0,5 20,4 10,7 17,8

Consumer Staples 244,8 0,6 17,2 9,6 8,4 Consumer Staples 246,5 0,2 17,3 9,6 9,4

Healthcare 259,0 2,8 12,6 7,7 15,8 Healthcare 256,6 2,6 12,7 7,6 16,2

Financials 120,1 0,7 16,5 6,3 -2,2 Financials 120,9 0,5 16,5 6,6 -0,9

IT 287,5 2,1 35,0 20,2 31,3 IT 278,7 2,0 35,1 20,1 31,3

Telecoms 74,5 1,5 20,7 18,4 9,4 Telecoms 77,8 1,4 20,6 18,5 10,2

Utilities 148,0 0,1 17,5 18,2 12,5 Utilities 152,3 -0,1 17,9 18,6 13,7

World Market Sectors (MSCI Indices)

Current Last week Year StartOne Year

Back

10-year

average

Government Bond Yield

Spreads (in bps)Current Last week Year Start

One Year

Back

10-year

average

US 1,71 1,80 2,69 3,13 2,42 US Treasuries 10Y/2Y 16 18 20 29 148

Germany -0,38 -0,36 0,24 0,40 1,17 US Treasuries 10Y/5Y 17 18 17 17 77

Japan -0,18 -0,14 0,00 0,12 0,50 Bunds 10Y/2Y 27 29 85 102 121

UK 0,66 0,68 1,28 1,46 2,03 Bunds 10Y/5Y 23 24 55 59 75

Greece 1,19 1,21 4,40 4,24 10,05

Ireland 0,03 0,05 0,90 0,97 3,54

Italy 0,99 0,95 2,74 3,38 3,22

Spain 0,27 0,27 1,42 1,57 3,02 EM Inv. Grade (IG) 161 158 213 183 215

Portugal 0,20 0,22 1,72 1,88 4,79 EM High yield 528 527 586 510 652

US IG 116 114 159 126 152

Current Last week Year StartOne Year

Back

10-year

averageUS High yield 409 389 533 381 505

30-Year FRM1 (%) 4,1 4,1 4,8 5,1 4,2 Euro area IG 102 102 154 129 141

vs 30Yr Treasury (bps) 186 176 183 173 113 Euro area High Yield 370 363 506 410 495

One Year

Back

10-year

average

Corporate Bond Spreads

(in bps)Current Last week Year Start

10-Year Government

Bond Yields

US Mortgage Market

(1. Fixed-rate Mortgage)

Bond Markets (%)

Current1-week

change (%)

1-month

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)Commodities Current

1-week

change (%)

1-month

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

Euro-based cross rates

EUR/USD 1,12 0,8 1,9 -2,1 -2,6 Agricultural 335 0,5 2,0 -7,3 -4,0

EUR/CHF 1,10 -0,1 0,7 -3,7 -2,4 Energy 465 -0,2 7,1 -9,7 21,3

EUR/GBP 0,86 -0,2 -3,1 -1,6 -4,0 West Texas Oil ($) 56 -0,5 6,8 -11,8 23,8

EUR/JPY 120,80 0,3 2,8 -6,1 -3,9 Crude brent Oil ($) 62 0,3 6,8 -14,4 16,0

EUR/NOK 10,14 -0,5 1,4 6,4 2,4 Industrial Metals 1233 0,5 3,9 0,1 3,8

EUR/SEK 10,68 -0,5 -1,3 3,5 5,2 Precious Metals 1782 0,5 0,5 21,2 17,2

EUR/AUD 1,62 -0,4 -1,0 2,1 -0,6 Gold ($) 1514 0,7 1,0 22,8 18,1

EUR/CAD 1,47 1,4 0,5 -1,7 -6,1 Silver ($) 18 0,4 3,1 22,8 16,9

USD-based cross rates Baltic Dry Index 1697 -5,8 -5,9 15,4 33,5

USD/CAD 1,31 0,6 -1,4 0,4 -3,7 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1029 -13,2 -0,4 -10,7 -17,8

USD/AUD 1,45 -1,3 -3,0 4,2 2,0

USD/JPY 108,18 -0,4 0,9 -4,0 -1,4

Foreign Exchange

Foreign Exchange & Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, as of November 1st, S&P/Goldman Sachs Indices for Agricultural, Energy,

Industrial & Precious Metals, BofA/ML Indices for Corporate Bond Spreads

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom


8


O F G R E E C E

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets

Under Management, Data as of November 1st

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for

Assets Under Management, Data as of November 1st

Global Cross Asset ETFs: Flows as % of AUM Equity ETFs: Flows as % of AUM

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 1st – Rebased @ 100

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 1st

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 1st – Rebased @ 100


90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

S&P500 EuroStoxx FTSE 100 Nikkei 225

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1400

1440

1480

1520

1560

1600

1640

1680

1720

2-M

ay

16

-May

30-M

ay

13

-Ju

n

27-J

un

11

-Ju

l

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-S

ep

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31

-Oct

Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right)Russell 2000-Small cap (left)Russell 1000-Large Cap (left)

Equity Market Performance - G4 Equity Market Performance - BRICs

Russell 2000 Value & Growth Index

Russell 2000 & Russell 1000 Index

-15-10-50510152025303540455055606570

-15-10

-505

10152025303540455055606570

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

DM Equities Bonds

EM Equities Commodities% %

84

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

84

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

Brazil China Russia India

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2-M

ay

16

-May

30

-May

13

-Ju

n

27

-Ju

n

11

-Ju

l

25

-Ju

l

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-Se

p

19

-Sep

3-O

ct

17

-Oct

31-O

ct

Value/Growth Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right)Russell 2000 Value (left)Russell 2000 Growth (left)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

US Emerging Markets Europe exUK% %

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom


9


O F G R E E C E

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 1st Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 1st

1,08

1,09

1,10

1,11

1,12

1,13

1,14

1,15

1,08

1,09

1,10

1,11

1,12

1,13

1,14

1,15

2-M

ay

16

-May

30

-May

13

-Ju

n

27

-Ju

n

11

-Ju

l

25

-Ju

l

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-S

ep

19

-Se

p

3-O

ct

17

-Oct

31

-Oct

EUR-USD €/$€/$

Stronger USD

EUR/USD

JPY/USD

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 1st

LA:Left Axis RA:Right Axis


Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 1st


-0,8

-0,7

-0,6

-0,5

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

2,4

2,6

2,8

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

US (LA) UK (LA) Japan (RA) Germany (RA) %%

1.2301.2501.2701.2901.3101.3301.3501.3701.3901.4101.4301.4501.4701.4901.5101.5301.5501.570

1.2301.2501.2701.2901.3101.3301.3501.3701.3901.4101.4301.4501.4701.4901.5101.5301.5501.570

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

Gold $/ounch$/ounch

10- Year Government Bond Yields 10- Year Government Bond Spreads

West Texas Intermediate ($/brl)

Gold ($/ounch)

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

USD-JPY $/¥$/¥

Stronger JPY

50

100

150

200

250

300

50

100

150

200

250

300

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

Italy Portugal Spain bpsbps

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

WTI $/brl$/brl

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics


10


O F G R E E C E

US Sectors Valuation

-7,0

-6,0

-5,0

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

Hea

lth

Car

e IT

Uti

litie

s

Re

al E

stat

e

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Co

mm

Ser

vice

s

S&P

50

0

Fin

anci

als

Mat

eri

als

Ind

ust

rial

s

Co

ns

Dis

cret

ion

ary

Ener

gy

2019

12-month forward

%

1-month revisions to 2019 & 12-month Forward EPSEarnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2019 & 12-month Forward EPS

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Hea

lth

Car

e

Re

al E

stat

e

Uti

litie

s

Co

mm

Ser

vice

s

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Fin

anci

als

Co

ns

Dis

cret

ion

ary

S&P

50

0 IT

Ind

ust

rial

s

Mat

eri

als

Ener

gy2019

12-month forward

%


P/BV Ratio

1/11/2019 % Weekly Change 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg

S&P500 3067 1,5 18,0 4,4 2,0 1,9 17,4 18,8 17,4 14,9 3,2 3,4 3,2 2,5

Energy 437 -0,3 64,4 -12,2 3,2 4,0 19,9 20,2 17,3 19,5 1,8 1,5 1,5 1,8

Materials 370 1,3 23,5 -16,0 1,9 2,1 16,7 19,7 17,6 14,6 2,6 2,4 2,3 2,5

Financials

Diversified Financials 704 2,0 28,2 5,8 1,3 1,5 16,0 15,1 14,4 13,8 1,9 1,7 1,6 1,5

Banks 354 1,1 24,6 9,9 2,2 2,8 13,0 11,7 11,4 11,3 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,0

Insurance 427 1,5 33,6 4,1 2,2 2,1 12,2 12,7 11,9 10,7 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,1

Real Estate 243 -0,7 5,8 3,2 3,8 3,1 16,7 21,0 20,1 18,2 3,1 3,8 3,9 2,9

Industrials

Capital Goods 713 2,8 15,3 -4,3 2,0 1,9 19,1 20,3 17,2 15,5 4,7 5,2 4,6 3,3

Transportation 777 0,2 25,0 9,5 1,8 2,0 14,0 14,2 13,4 13,6 3,6 4,2 3,8 3,3

Commercial Services 335 -0,1 16,7 7,9 1,5 1,4 22,8 27,1 25,3 19,6 4,1 5,6 5,3 3,3

Consumer Discretionary

Retailing 2417 1,0 22,4 19,2 0,8 0,8 31,1 31,7 28,5 20,7 10,2 12,2 10,8 5,9

Media 615 1,2 18,7 10,9 0,4 0,4 23,6 24,6 21,5 19,5 4,1 3,7 3,3 3,1

Consumer Services 1213 -0,7 16,4 10,5 2,2 2,3 20,8 21,7 20,0 19,1 8,8 14,0 13,0 6,1

Consumer Durables 345 -0,7 15,0 -1,1 1,5 1,5 16,7 18,1 16,8 16,9 3,3 3,6 3,4 3,1

Automobiles and parts 119 3,2 -5,4 -19,8 3,7 4,0 7,8 8,8 7,6 8,5 1,6 1,4 1,3 1,7

IT

Technology 1433 2,4 17,0 2,5 1,8 1,6 15,1 18,7 17,4 12,5 5,2 8,6 8,7 3,5

Software & Services 2150 2,1 14,0 11,1 1,3 1,1 22,5 26,1 23,7 16,8 6,8 7,2 6,7 5,0

Semiconductors 1136 1,3 16,1 -3,6 1,9 2,0 14,8 17,2 16,6 13,9 4,3 5,2 4,8 3,0

Communication Services 173 1,5 17,7 7,9 1,4 1,3 19,1 20,0 18,2 17,0 3,4 3,2 2,9 2,8

Consumer Staples

Food & Staples Retailing 488 0,0 12,1 2,4 2,1 1,7 17,4 21,7 20,9 15,9 3,6 4,6 4,4 3,1

Food Beverage & Tobacco 686 0,4 12,5 -2,7 3,3 3,4 18,3 19,0 18,0 17,3 5,1 5,1 4,9 4,9

Household Goods 727 -0,6 9,9 4,5 3,1 2,4 19,3 25,2 23,8 18,9 5,4 8,7 8,7 4,9

Health Care

Pharmaceuticals 912 3,4 8,3 12,7 2,2 2,2 15,1 14,5 13,9 14,3 4,2 5,1 4,4 3,5

Healthcare Equipment 1270 2,7 13,1 15,9 1,1 1,1 18,0 18,5 17,2 15,0 3,3 3,4 3,1 2,5

Utilities 325 -0,1 5,2 4,1 3,9 3,1 16,4 20,6 19,8 15,4 1,7 2,2 2,1 1,6

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from

average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

EPS Growth (%) P/E RatioPrice ($) Dividend Yield (%)

Source: Factset, Data as of November 1st

12-month forward EPS are 16% of 2019 EPS and 84% of 2020 EPS



NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics


11


O F G R E E C E

Euro Area Sectors Valuation

-16

-14

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2019

12-month Forward

%


-27%

-70-65-60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10

-505

101520

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12-month Forward

%


1/11/2019 % Weekly Change 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg

EuroStoxx 391 0,4 7,3 -4,9 3,2 3,2 14,8 15,9 14,8 13,1 1,6 1,7 1,6 1,4

Energy 324 -0,3 7,3 8,0 4,8 5,0 13,6 13,1 11,3 11,4 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2

Materials 484 0,9 10,1 8,8 3,1 3,2 15,1 15,3 14,3 14,1 1,7 1,9 1,8 1,4

Basic Resources 192 0,2 -4,3 -51,5 2,2 3,4 12,7 18,7 12,9 13,7 1,2 0,8 0,7 0,9

Chemicals 1123 0,3 5,1 -22,3 2,8 2,7 16,0 21,1 19,3 15,0 2,4 2,0 2,0 2,2

Financials

Fin/al Services 498 1,8 15,4 5,6 2,5 2,4 15,9 16,3 16,1 14,0 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,3

Banks 91 -2,6 12,1 -9,6 4,1 6,0 11,5 8,6 8,3 10,1 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,7

Insurance 296 -0,6 14,2 9,5 5,0 5,0 10,8 10,6 10,2 9,2 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,9

Real Estate 241 0,3 9,3 3,8 4,2 4,3 18,7 18,6 17,9 16,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0

Industrial 906 1,6 12,1 4,3 2,6 2,5 18,1 19,0 17,2 15,1 2,8 3,0 2,8 2,3

Consumer Discretionary

Media 227 0,1 0,2 9,1 3,7 3,7 17,6 16,3 15,3 15,5 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,1

Retail 548 -0,8 11,4 5,8 2,7 2,8 20,3 22,0 20,2 18,4 2,8 3,4 3,3 2,7

Automobiles and parts 497 0,8 4,6 -23,6 3,3 3,8 8,2 8,9 7,9 9,0 1,2 0,9 0,9 1,0

Travel and Leisure 196 2,8 2,1 -31,2 1,7 2,2 12,0 14,8 12,2 16,3 2,0 1,8 1,7 1,8

Technology 569 0,5 2,7 1,9 1,6 1,3 21,4 24,1 22,1 17,9 3,6 3,9 3,6 2,9

Communication Services 305 -2,3 -1,1 -8,5 4,4 4,5 14,4 16,3 14,8 13,9 1,8 1,9 1,8 1,8

Consumer Staples

Food&Beverage 595 -0,6 15,5 5,5 2,9 2,2 20,6 19,9 19,2 18,3 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,6

Household Goods 1043 1,9 7,8 10,8 1,9 1,7 23,2 28,0 25,6 20,4 4,3 5,7 5,2 3,6

Health care 820 2,3 5,0 -2,1 2,5 2,3 17,0 18,1 16,9 14,9 2,1 2,2 2,1 2,1

Utilities 345 0,6 -4,1 13,7 5,2 4,6 14,0 16,1 14,9 12,5 1,2 1,5 1,5 1,1

P/E RatioPrice (€) P/BV RatioDividend Yield (%)EPS Growth (%)

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from

average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average





NBG Global Markets Roundup | Disclosures & Analyst Certification


12


O F G R E E C E

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of Greece, and is provided solely as a sheer reference for the information of experienced and sophisticated investors who are

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not constitute the provision of investment advice and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer or an

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