global supply trends for plastics

Global Supply Trends for Plastics

Presented By:

Michael D. Taylor

Vice President, International Affairs and Trade

Atlanta, GA

October 6, 2015

Agenda

Background on SPI

Overview of U.S. Plastics Industry

Shale Gas as a Gamechanger

Resin Production and Trends in Key End Markets

Trade in Commodity Plastics

Trade in Engineering Plastics

Q&A

Founded in 1937, SPI is the only U.S.

trade association representing ALL

segments of the plastics industry

The U.S. Plastics Industry

In 2014…

• 3rd largest industry in U.S.

• Record-breaking domestic demand

Up 6.0% to $298.3 billion

• Shipped more than $427.3 billion in goods

• Employed 940,000 people

• Operated 16,806 facilities in every U.S. state

U.S. Demand for Plastics Sets

New High Level

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$ in b

illio

ns

Machinery Molds Plastic Products Resin

Apparent Consumption = Shipments + Imports – Exports

Source: SPI “Global Business Trends” (2015)

Plastics Have Historically Grown

Faster than all Manufacturing

Comparative Growth Rates 1980 - 2014

Plastics

Mfg All Mfg

Employment 0.3% -1.3%

Real Shipments 2.6% 0.8%

Real Value Added 2.3% 0.8%

Productivity Growth 2.3% 2.1%

• Plastics manufacturing

employment grew 0.3 percent

per year since 1980

• The value of manufactured

shipments grew by 2.6

percent per year since 1980

• Productivity grew by 2.3

percent per year since 1980

Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the U.S. Plastics Industry” (2015)

Game Changers Could Raise

U.S. GDP by 2020

Sectors Potentially Affected by

Game Changers

Game Changers Have Broad

Economic and Societal Impacts

by 2020

Positive

trade balance

of $10.4 billion

$51.7B PLASTICS 7.7%

2014 Trade Statistics

In 2014, the U.S. plastics industry exported goods valued at $62.1 billion, up 3.1

percent from 2013

$35.1B RESINS 1.8%

$25.0B PRODUCTS 5.1%

$528.3M MOLDS 10.1%

$1.5B MACHINERY 7.7%

Source: SPI Global Business Trends 2015

Top Industry Export Markets

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

U.S

. $

Bill

ion

s

Mexico Canada China Belgium Brazil All Others

Top Plastics Industry

Export Markets 2014

All Others $23.5 billion

Mexico $15.8 billion

Canada $13.2 billion

China $5.2 billion

Belgium $2.4 billion

Brazil $2.1 billion

Total $62.1 billion


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Resins Plastic Products Molds Machinery

U.S. Plastics Industry Trade

Balance by Segment 2000-2014


Billions of U.S. Dollars

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Resins Plastic Products Molds Machinery

U.S. Plastics Industry Trade

Balance by Segment for FTA

Partners 2000-2014


Billions of U.S. Dollars

Key to North American

Petrochemical Competitiveness

Announced and Expected

Plastics Industry Investment

Source: American Chemistry Council

Anticipated Wave of Plastics

Industry Investment by Segment

Source: American Chemistry Council

Shale Energy: Economic

Contribution to Manufacturing

2012 2015 2020 2025

Employment

Total Manufacturing 303,383 395,298 464,897 522,798

Aluminum 1,171 1,484 1,558 1,693

Steel 19,978 23,610 23,460 26,242

Plastics* 8,974 12,878 14,948 16,438

Fertilizers 506 899 4,851 5,805

Value Added ($M)


Aluminum 147 189 204 223

Steel 3,166 3,704 3,619 4,024

Plastics* 768 1,098 1,282 1,414

Fertilizers 75 131 688 822

Labor Income ($M)


Aluminum 101 130 140 153

Steel 2,105 2,455 2,389 2,658

Plastics* 523 739 868 961

Fertilizers 50 88 460 550

Economic Contribution Summary

Includes NAICS Code 3261 (plastics); does not include rubber (3262) or resins (3252).

Source: IHS

Added Industrial Production

Added Industrial Production as a Result of Shale Energy

Development

Source: IHS

2.2%

1.7%

1.5%

1.5%

1.4%

1.2%

1.2%

1.0%

0.4%

1.3%

Iron and Steel Products

Resins and SyntheticMaterials

Basic Organic Chemicals

Plastics and RubberProducts

Fabricated Metal Products

Agricultural Metals

Nonmetalic Minerals

Petroleum and CoalProducts

Machinery

Total Manufacturing Average

2012

6.7%

6.0%

7.1%

4.1%

3.2%

6.9%

3.5%

5.8%

3.3%

3.5%

2020

7.4%

8.1%

9.5%

4.6%

4.8%

7.7%

4.1%

6.5%

4.0%

3.9%

2025

Global Polymer Industry

Expected to Grow

• The global polymer industry is expected to grow with a CAGR of 3.9% over 2015-2020. The demand for polymer is driven by growth in end use markets, such as packaging, automotive, infrastructure, transport rails, and telecommunication mainly from emerging economies.

• According to “Global Polymer Industry Report 2015-2020: Trends, Profits and Forecast Analysis”, thermoplastics segment is expected to witness the highest growth over the next five years. Increasing applications of engineered plastics in various fields, such as construction, automotive, and industrial manufacturing equipment to mechanical engineering is expected to drive this market.

• Historically, the middle class has been a major consumer of polymers, and with global population set to include over 60% of people within this demographic by 2030, demand for commodity plastics will grow.

19

U.S. Resin Production & Sales

Growth in Key End Markets

• The housing market continues to recover in the U.S., with housing starts up 8 percent

in 2014, finally breaking the 1-million units pace. Overall, North American construction

activity grew by 4.0 percent in 2014.

• Light vehicle sales continued to strengthen in the U.S., rising from 15.5 million units in

2013 to 16.4 million units in 2014.

• In North America, the appliance industry’s output volume grew 1.4 percent, marking

the second positive year-over-year comparison since 2004. In 2014, production of

computers and electronic products in North America rose 5.5 percent while

production of other electrical equipment rose 10.3 percent.

• The North American furniture industry expanded 6.5 percent in 2014, growing for the

fourth year in a row. There was stronger growth in the U.S., where production

increased 6.9 percent. In 2014 and overall, North American production of carpeting

and other textile furnishings grew 2.0 percent in 2014 after contraction in 2013.

• North American production of industrial machinery rose 8.1 percent in 2014.

21

U.S. Commodity Plastics

Exports 2000-2014

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,0002

000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20

12

2013

2014

PE PP PVC PS

U.S

. $

Mill

ions

Top U.S. Engineering Plastics

Export Markets 2000-2014

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,4002

000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20

12

2013

2014

Mexico China Canada South Korea Japan

Belgium Netherlands Taiwan Brazil Hong Kong

U.S

. $

Mill

ions


Exports by Type 2000-2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,5002

000

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

POLYAMIDE-6,-11,-12,-6,6,-6,9,-6,10 OR -6,12 (NYLON TYPE)POLYCARBONATESOTHER POLYAMIDESPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATEACRYLONITRILE-BUTADIENE-STYRENE (ABS) COPOLYMERS

U.S

. $

Mill

ions


Imports by Type 2010-2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

POLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET) RESINS, PACKAGING GRADEPOLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PET) RESINS, EXCLUDING PACKAGING GRADEACRYLONITRILE-BUTADIENE-STYRENE (ABS) COPOLYMERSPOLYAMIDE-6,-11,-12,-6,6,-6,9,-6,10 OR -6,12POLYESTERS,NESOI

U.S

. $

Mill

ions

U.S. Fluoropolymers Exports by

Type 2000-2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

3002

000

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

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20

12

20

13

20

14

NON-ELASTOMERIC FLUOROPOLYMERSELASTOMERIC FLUOROPOLYMERSPOLYTETRAFLUOROETHYLENE (PTFE)

U.S

. $

Mill

ions

U.S. Fluoropolymers Imports by

Type 2000-2014

0

50

100

150

200

2502

006

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

NON-ELASTOMERIC FLUOROPOLYMERS

ELASTOMERIC FLUOROPOLYMERS

POLYTETRAFLUOROETHYLENE (PTFE), EXCEPT GRANULAR

POLYTETRAFLUOROETHYLENE (PTFE), GRANULAR

U.S

. $

Mill

ions

Thank You!

谢谢 Merci Vielen Dank

Grazie ありがとうございました 감사합니다

Obrigado Спасибо Gracias Teşekkürler

Questions & Answers

Michael Taylor

[email protected]

202-974-5232

mailto:[email protected]