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GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT Michael Liebreich Chairman of the Advisory Board Twitter: @mliebreich Bloomberg EMEA Summit London, 12 October 2015

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Page 1: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT

Michael Liebreich

Chairman of the Advisory Board

Twitter: @mliebreich

Bloomberg EMEA Summit

London, 12 October 2015

Page 2: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

1Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro

investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY2004–14 ($BN)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

30%

50%

27%

12% -9%

35%

7% -7%

-8%12%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind

Page 3: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

2Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGYQ1 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)

Page 4: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

3Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AMER NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)

Page 5: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

4Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

● 13 October 2015

APAC NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)

Page 6: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

5Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EMEA NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)

Page 7: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

6Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

SPAIN NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)

1.0

2.0

0.61.01.2

1.71.2

1.00.7

2.9

1.9

4.1

1.8

4.44.2

12.6

4.1

5.8

8.6

5.4

1.8

3.9

3.1

0.9

1.8

2.52.0

1.41.2

5.7

1.9

0.80.91.0

0.10.60.4

0.10.20.10.3

0.9

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15

Four quarter running average

Page 8: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

7Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

ITALY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)

0.20.30.20.20.20.2

0.81.0

0.20.20.60.50.40.6

0.9

1.61.3

1.6

2.8

1.61.2

1.92.3

1.8

5.7

4.8

5.4

7.7

8.4

9.3

7.16.8

3.74.0

3.63.6

0.90.9

0.80.8

0.40.2

0.20.3

0.40.4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15

Four quarter running average

Page 9: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

8Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GERMANY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)

1.8

4.0

1.5

2.12.6

4.0

2.73.1

2.4

5.1

2.8

4.1

3.1

5.5

4.13.7

3.4

5.5

4.54.64.4

7.5

5.1

7.16.9

8.9

11.6

8.9

7.67.7

10.7

6.66.4

5.85.55.4

4.8

2.7

1.92.0

5.0

4.2

1.5

4.3

2.1

4.3

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0Q

1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15

Four quarter running average

Page 10: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

9Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

FRANCE NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)

0.20.10.10.10.30.80.8

0.61.01.2

0.5

2.1

1.00.7

0.81.00.7

1.41.6

0.90.70.60.70.9

1.31.20.9

1.2

1.91.9

2.1

1.91.5

1.81.11.0

0.91.4

0.90.60.8

1.41.1

1.6

0.5

0.5

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15

Four quarter running average

Page 11: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

10Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

UK NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)

0.40.1

0.40.30.8

1.6

0.91.11.01.20.9

2.3

1.31.8

1.2

1.9

0.81.0

1.51.9

0.3

5.3 5.3

0.81.2

0.5

4.04.4

2.1

3.4

2.0

3.1

2.2

4.0

1.8

4.13.9

2.5

3.64.03.9

2.73.0

7.9

3.02.9

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15

Four quarter running average

Page 12: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

11Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLES PROJECTS IN THE EU

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

PAYMENT MECHANISM

Premium

Green certificates

Feed-in tariff (FiT)

Page 13: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

12Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE EU

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

PAYMENT MECHANISM

Premium

Green certificates

Competitive auctions

Feed-in tariff (FiT)

ALLOCATION

.

Auctions legislated

but yet to be held or

pilot auctions only

Page 14: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

13Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE EU

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

SUBSIDY BUDGET

Capped

Frozen / no new support

PAYMENT MECHANISM

Premium

Green certificates

Competitive auctions

Feed-in tariff (FiT)

ALLOCATION

.

Auctions legislated

but yet to be held or

pilot auctions only

Page 15: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

14Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

PRINCIPAL STATE- AND NATIONAL-LEVEL POLICY MECHANISMS FOR RENEWABLES PROJECTS (IN FORCE OR PROPOSED)

Market-based mechanisms – eg, auctions, renewable energy certificate schemes,

renewable portfolio standards

Feed-in tariff/premiums

Country switched to auction or tender programme since 2010

Page 16: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

15Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

0 100 200 300 400 500

NuclearCHP

Coal firedNatural gas CCGT

Geothermal - flash plantLandfill gas

Large hydroSmall hydro

Wind - onshoreGeothermal - binary plant

Municipal solid wasteBiomass - incinerationBiomass - gasification

Biomass - anaerobic digestionPV - c-Si tracking

PV - c-SiPV - thin film

Wind - offshoreSTEG - tower & heliostatSTEG - parabolic trough

STEG - LFRMarine - tidal

Marine - wave

Q2 2013 central H1 2014 central

8441037

US China Europe AustraliaFossil technologies:

LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY2014 ($/MWH)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for

China and the US.

Onshore wind

as low as

$37/MWh

PV projects as

low as

$58/MWh

Page 17: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

16Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

THE ROAD TO PARIS

Image: UNFCCC

Page 18: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

17Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Emissions must be cut 40-70% by mid-century

and phased out entirely by 2100

G7 JUNE 2015 – SCHLOSS ELMAU

Picture: Wikimedia

Page 19: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

18Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

There is an urgent need to

develop sources of

renewable energy.

LAUDATO SI – DEMAND SIDE

Pope Francis

Picture: Wikimedia

Page 20: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

19Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: The Economist

THE ECONOMIST COVER, “SHEIKHS VERSUS SHALE” DECEMBER 2014

Page 21: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

20Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Note: The Green line represents the WTI Spot price, and has been adjusted for

inflation and is represented here in real 2015 US$

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA,

World Bank

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2000–2015($2015 / BARREL)

or ?

Page 22: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

21Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Note: Japan-Korea Marker is based on broker assessments of the spot price of un-contracted LNG cargoes delivered into

the Northeast Asia market.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,

ICAP, Platts

OIL AND GAS PRICES: HENRY HUB, NBP, BAFA, AND NE LNG, 2004–15 (US$/MMBTU)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

NBP (UK)

Henry Hub (US)

BAFA (Germanyborder price forRussian gas)

North East Asia LNG

Page 23: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

22Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

AN AGE OF ENERGY

PLENTY…

… AGE OF

COMPETITION

Page 24: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

23Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2015

Marcellus

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Utica

Other Shale

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA

US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, 2000–2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Marcellus

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Utica

Rest of US 'shale'

Gas rigs online

Oil rigs online

BCFD

Page 25: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

24Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

http://www.slideshare.net/MarcellusDN/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015

Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg

New Energy Finance

AVERAGE LATERAL LENGTH (FEET)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

+114%

Page 26: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

25Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

http://www.slideshare.net/MarcellusDN/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015

DRILLING COST/LATERAL LENGTH (INCLUDES VERTICAL) ($/FOOT)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-71%

Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg

New Energy Finance

Page 27: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

26Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

http://www.slideshare.net/MarcellusDN/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015

COMPLETION COST/LATERAL LENGTH ($/FOOT)

Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg

New Energy Finance

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-42%

Page 28: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

27Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

http://www.slideshare.net/MarcellusDN/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015

Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg

New Energy Finance

WELL COST/LATERAL LENGTH ($/FOOT)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-57%

Page 29: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

28Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

NORTHEAST GAS PRODUCTION PER RIG(MCFD)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 30: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

29Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS

Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April

2011 Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown

Canada

Brazil

PolandNorway

China

Australia

South Africa200 trillion

cubic feet

USA

Mexico

Libya

Algeria

Argentina

UK

Page 31: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

30Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: For the underlying data to this chart, go to BI LNGGG<GO> Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

LNG EXPORT CAPACITY BY COUNTRY/REGION (MMTPA)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

Other

North America

Russia

East Africa

West Africa

Australia

Other

North America

Russia

West Africa

North Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Australia

Qatar

Demand

Pre

-FID

O

pe

rati

on

al,

un

de

r c

on

str

uc

tio

no

r p

os

t-F

ID

Page 32: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

31Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

Historical

Page 33: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

32Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

Historical

2010

Page 34: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

33Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

Historical

2010

Page 35: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

34Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

Historical

2010

Page 36: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

35Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

Historical

2010

Page 37: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

36Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

2012

Historical

2010

Page 38: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

37Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

2012

Historical

2010

Page 39: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

38Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

20122013

Historical

2010

Page 40: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

39Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

20122013

2014

Historical

2010

Page 41: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

40Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

20122013

2014

Historical

2010

Page 42: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

41Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

GLOBAL POWER DEMAND GROWTH, 2012-40

Negative Low Medium High

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

DEMAND UNDER NEO

WILL BE 15% LOWER IN

2040 THAN IEA NEW

POLICIES SCENARIO

Page 43: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

42Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Note: Prices have been adjusted for inflation according to YoY CPI Index from UK Office of National Statistics Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ONS

ARA AND NEWCASTLE COAL PRICE 2007–2015 (2014 US$/TONNE)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ARA

Newcastle

Page 44: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

43Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Values as of 08 September 2015; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 – 2015 YTD

S&P 500 Oil & Gas

Stowe Global Coal

NEX

0

50

100

150

200

Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15

Page 45: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

44Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

COAL BANKRUPTCIES

Image: various company sources

Investment Pte

Page 46: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

45Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

The coal business

in the United

States has kind of

died, so we’re out

of the coal

business now.

COAL

Bill KochPicture: Forbes

Page 47: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

46Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

The greatest crisis society

confronts is not a future

environmental crisis

predicted by computer

models but a human crisis

today that is fully within our

power to solve... with coal.

DEVELOPING WORLD ENERGY

‘Energy Access For All With

Green Coal’ campaignPicture: Peabody Energy

Page 48: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

47Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Image: Denis Donohue / Shutterstock

AFRICAN PROVERB

“The gazelle does not have to outrun the cheetah

It has to outrun the slowest gazelle”

OilSands

CoalCleanenergy

Oil Gas

Page 49: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

48Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:

US LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL)

0

50

100

150

200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Onshore wind

Utility-scale PV

Natural gas

Coal

Page 50: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

49Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:

EUROPE LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL)

0

50

100

150

200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Onshore wind

Utility-scale PV

Natural gas

Coal

Page 51: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

50Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:

CHINA LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL)

0

50

100

150

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Onshore wind

Utility-scale PV

Natural gas

Coal

Page 52: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

51Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:

INDIA LCOE($/MWH NOMINAL)

0

50

100

150

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Onshore wind

Utility-scale PV

Natural gas

Coal

Page 53: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

52Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich● 10/13/2015

TOTAL INVESTMENTS PER TECHNOLOGY, 2015-40 (US$ REAL)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

RENEWABLES TAKE

65% OF THE $12.2

TRILLION POWER

INVESTMENT TO 2040

Page 54: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

53Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Renewables are poised to

seize the crucial top spot in

global power supply growth…

Affordable renewables are

set to dominate the emerging

power systems of the world

RENEWABLES TO DOMINATE POWER SUPPLY GROWTH

Fatih Birol

Chief Economist, IEA Picture: Mikhail Evstafiev, Wikimedia

Page 55: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

54Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND & SOLAR) , 2014 (%)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Brazil

3%

India

3%

China

5%

Australia

8%

France

3%

US

4%

Mexico

3%

ME +

Africa

0%

UK

9%

Japan

5%

Germany

16%

0

1-5%

6-10%

11-25%

26-50%

50+%

Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come

from BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2015

Page 56: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

55Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND & SOLAR) , 2040 (%)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Brazil

34%

India

32%

China

37%

France

30%

Australia

52%

ME +

Africa

26%

US

24%

Mexico

32%

Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come

from BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2015

UK

63%

Japan

20%

Germany

77%

0

1-5%

6-10%

11-25%

26-50%

50+%

Page 57: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

56Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

ENERGY SERVICE BATTLEFIELD

HIVE home

heating

controls

Smart

thermostats to

reduce churn

Virtual mobile

operator – 80k

customers

Smart home

partnerships/investment

IHD and smart

thermostat

program

BEMS for DR

and energy

efficiency

Smart thermostats

and load

disaggregation

Integrated smart

homes

Smart

lighting /

home

automation

Smart

thermostats and

‘behavioural’ DR

Residential

energy

storage

HEM tools

and DR

Home energy

management

Behavioural

engagement

Smart thermostats,

home automation

Load disaggregation

Solar PV and

energy monitoring

HEM tools

Smart

thermostats

Smart

thermostatsConnected

home / IoT

Load

disaggregation

Heating controls

Home

automation

HomeKit

1m connected

home

customers

Digital Life

connected

home service

Smart home

platform

(AT&T)

Nest

acquisition

Smart home

hubs

HEMS

platform

DR and retail

services

Energy supply

and services

Registered

energy supplier

Home

automation

Home automation

???

Bundled electricity

telecoms services

Bundled electricity,

entertainment and

home automation

Bundled telecoms

and energy

Bundled telecoms,

energy. Residential

energy storage. Bundled telecoms,

electricity supply

beginning in 2016

Bundled insurance,

telecoms and energy

Bundled telecoms,

electricity and gas

Page 58: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

57Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

E.ON SPLIT

Page 59: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

58Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

ELECTRIC VEHICLE UPTAKE

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers

CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE

WORLDWIDE, 2013

1.2 billion

ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN

USE WORLDWIDE, 2014

0.75 million (to scale)

Page 60: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

59Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF’s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here:

https://www.bnef.com/Insight/10299. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINESI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS

0

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW)

Cry

sta

llin

e S

i P

V M

od

ule

pri

ce

(US

D/W

)

m=26.3%

Page 61: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

60Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF’s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here:

https://www.bnef.com/Insight/10299. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINESI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

0

1

10

100

0

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Cumulative lithium-ion EV battery pack production (MWh)

Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW)

Cry

sta

llin

e S

i P

V M

od

ule

pri

ce

(US

D/W

)

Lith

ium

-ion

ba

ttery

pa

ck p

rice

(US

D/W

h)

m=15.5%

m=26.3%

EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK

PRICES HAVE FALLEN

60% SINCE 2010

Page 62: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

61Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Photo: Reuters/NASA

BEIJING, CHINA

Page 63: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

62Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Photo: JE Poirrier, Creative Commons

DELHI, INDIA

Page 64: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

63Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Photo: UCLA

LOS ANGELES, USA

Page 65: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

64Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Photo: D€NNI$/Creative Commons

PARIS, FRANCE

Page 66: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

65Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

Photo: HHRCA

LONDON, UK

Page 67: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

66Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

VW DIESELGATE

Source: Flickriver

Page 68: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

67Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

GAP BETWEEN EUROPEAN TEST AND REAL WORLD EMISSIONS, VARIOUS VEHICLES, 2001-2014 (%)

Source: International Council on Clean Transportation

Page 69: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

68Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

URBAN TRANSPORT REVOLUTION

Images: Transport for London, Zipcar, Uber, Proterra

Page 70: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

69Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

CHANGING UK ELECTRICITY MIX

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

199820002002200420062008201020122014

Other

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

26.2%

0.5%

27.5%20.1%

23.8%

1.9%

POWER GENERATED BY SOURCE, 1998-2014 (TWH) SHARE OF GENERATION, 2015 YTD (%)

Page 71: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

70Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

UK HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY BILL2014 (£)

235

139

124

59

29

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014

VAT @ 5%

Energy and climatechange policies

Supplier costs andmargins

Network costs

Wholesale energycosts

586

Minus £30 rebates + >>>

Renewables Obligation,

36

Small-scale Feed-in-Tariffs, 9

Other, 45

235

139

124

59

29

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014

VAT @ 5%

Energy and climatechange policies

Supplier costs andmargins

Network costs

Wholesale energycosts Source: UK DECC Annual domestic energy bills 2013,

Bloomberg New Energy Finance,Note: Real 2014 Sterling.

Page 72: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

71Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

UK LCOE BY TECHNOLOTYH2 2015 ($/MWH)

36%

27%

19%

17%

Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: Natural gas CCGT and coal includes a carbon cost of $26/tonne

44%

13%

5%

0 50 100 150 200 250

Wind - onshore

Natural gas CCGT

Coal

PV - c-Si (U)

Page 73: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

72Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

UK ENERGY POLICY

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Page 74: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

73Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich

IN SUMMARY…

Picture: Wikimedia Commons

The old is dying and the

new struggles to be

born; in this interregnum

a great variety of morbid

symptoms appear.

Antonio Gramsci

Co-Founder & Leader, Italian

Communist Party

Page 75: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes

Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers

driving change in the energy system

[email protected]

MARKETS Renewable Energy

Energy Smart Technologies

Advanced Transport

Gas

Carbon and RECs

SERVICESAmericas Service

Asia Pacific Service

EMEA Service

Applied Research

Events and Workshops

Michael Liebreich

Twitter: @mliebreich

Thanks!