global trends in clean energy investment...michael liebreich bnef emea summit, london, 12 october...
TRANSCRIPT
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GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT
Michael Liebreich
Chairman of the Advisory Board
Twitter: @mliebreich
Bloomberg EMEA Summit
London, 12 October 2015
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1Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro
investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY2004–14 ($BN)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
30%
50%
27%
12% -9%
35%
7% -7%
-8%12%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
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2Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGYQ1 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)
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3Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AMER NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)
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4Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
● 13 October 2015
APAC NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)
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5Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EMEA NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)
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6Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
SPAIN NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)
1.0
2.0
0.61.01.2
1.71.2
1.00.7
2.9
1.9
4.1
1.8
4.44.2
12.6
4.1
5.8
8.6
5.4
1.8
3.9
3.1
0.9
1.8
2.52.0
1.41.2
5.7
1.9
0.80.91.0
0.10.60.4
0.10.20.10.3
0.9
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15
Four quarter running average
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7Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
ITALY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)
0.20.30.20.20.20.2
0.81.0
0.20.20.60.50.40.6
0.9
1.61.3
1.6
2.8
1.61.2
1.92.3
1.8
5.7
4.8
5.4
7.7
8.4
9.3
7.16.8
3.74.0
3.63.6
0.90.9
0.80.8
0.40.2
0.20.3
0.40.4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15
Four quarter running average
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8Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GERMANY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)
1.8
4.0
1.5
2.12.6
4.0
2.73.1
2.4
5.1
2.8
4.1
3.1
5.5
4.13.7
3.4
5.5
4.54.64.4
7.5
5.1
7.16.9
8.9
11.6
8.9
7.67.7
10.7
6.66.4
5.85.55.4
4.8
2.7
1.92.0
5.0
4.2
1.5
4.3
2.1
4.3
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15
Four quarter running average
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9Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
FRANCE NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)
0.20.10.10.10.30.80.8
0.61.01.2
0.5
2.1
1.00.7
0.81.00.7
1.41.6
0.90.70.60.70.9
1.31.20.9
1.2
1.91.9
2.1
1.91.5
1.81.11.0
0.91.4
0.90.60.8
1.41.1
1.6
0.5
0.5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15
Four quarter running average
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10Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
UK NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q2 2015 ($BN)
0.40.1
0.40.30.8
1.6
0.91.11.01.20.9
2.3
1.31.8
1.2
1.9
0.81.0
1.51.9
0.3
5.3 5.3
0.81.2
0.5
4.04.4
2.1
3.4
2.0
3.1
2.2
4.0
1.8
4.13.9
2.5
3.64.03.9
2.73.0
7.9
3.02.9
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15
Four quarter running average
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11Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLES PROJECTS IN THE EU
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
PAYMENT MECHANISM
Premium
Green certificates
Feed-in tariff (FiT)
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12Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE EU
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
PAYMENT MECHANISM
Premium
Green certificates
Competitive auctions
Feed-in tariff (FiT)
ALLOCATION
.
Auctions legislated
but yet to be held or
pilot auctions only
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13Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE EU
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
SUBSIDY BUDGET
Capped
Frozen / no new support
PAYMENT MECHANISM
Premium
Green certificates
Competitive auctions
Feed-in tariff (FiT)
ALLOCATION
.
Auctions legislated
but yet to be held or
pilot auctions only
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14Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
PRINCIPAL STATE- AND NATIONAL-LEVEL POLICY MECHANISMS FOR RENEWABLES PROJECTS (IN FORCE OR PROPOSED)
Market-based mechanisms – eg, auctions, renewable energy certificate schemes,
renewable portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Country switched to auction or tender programme since 2010
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15Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
0 100 200 300 400 500
NuclearCHP
Coal firedNatural gas CCGT
Geothermal - flash plantLandfill gas
Large hydroSmall hydro
Wind - onshoreGeothermal - binary plant
Municipal solid wasteBiomass - incinerationBiomass - gasification
Biomass - anaerobic digestionPV - c-Si tracking
PV - c-SiPV - thin film
Wind - offshoreSTEG - tower & heliostatSTEG - parabolic trough
STEG - LFRMarine - tidal
Marine - wave
Q2 2013 central H1 2014 central
8441037
US China Europe AustraliaFossil technologies:
LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY2014 ($/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for
China and the US.
Onshore wind
as low as
$37/MWh
PV projects as
low as
$58/MWh
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16Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
THE ROAD TO PARIS
Image: UNFCCC
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17Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Emissions must be cut 40-70% by mid-century
and phased out entirely by 2100
G7 JUNE 2015 – SCHLOSS ELMAU
Picture: Wikimedia
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18Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
There is an urgent need to
develop sources of
renewable energy.
LAUDATO SI – DEMAND SIDE
Pope Francis
Picture: Wikimedia
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19Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: The Economist
THE ECONOMIST COVER, “SHEIKHS VERSUS SHALE” DECEMBER 2014
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20Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Note: The Green line represents the WTI Spot price, and has been adjusted for
inflation and is represented here in real 2015 US$
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA,
World Bank
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2000–2015($2015 / BARREL)
or ?
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21Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note: Japan-Korea Marker is based on broker assessments of the spot price of un-contracted LNG cargoes delivered into
the Northeast Asia market.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
ICAP, Platts
OIL AND GAS PRICES: HENRY HUB, NBP, BAFA, AND NE LNG, 2004–15 (US$/MMBTU)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
NBP (UK)
Henry Hub (US)
BAFA (Germanyborder price forRussian gas)
North East Asia LNG
![Page 23: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
22Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
AN AGE OF ENERGY
PLENTY…
… AGE OF
COMPETITION
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23Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2015
Marcellus
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Woodford
Bakken
Antrim
Utica
Other Shale
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, 2000–2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Marcellus
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Woodford
Bakken
Antrim
Utica
Rest of US 'shale'
Gas rigs online
Oil rigs online
BCFD
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24Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
http://www.slideshare.net/MarcellusDN/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015
Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg
New Energy Finance
AVERAGE LATERAL LENGTH (FEET)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
+114%
![Page 26: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
25Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
http://www.slideshare.net/MarcellusDN/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015
DRILLING COST/LATERAL LENGTH (INCLUDES VERTICAL) ($/FOOT)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-71%
Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg
New Energy Finance
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26Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
http://www.slideshare.net/MarcellusDN/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015
COMPLETION COST/LATERAL LENGTH ($/FOOT)
Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg
New Energy Finance
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-42%
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27Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
http://www.slideshare.net/MarcellusDN/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015
Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg
New Energy Finance
WELL COST/LATERAL LENGTH ($/FOOT)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-57%
![Page 29: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
28Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
NORTHEAST GAS PRODUCTION PER RIG(MCFD)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
![Page 30: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
29Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS
Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April
2011 Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown
Canada
Brazil
PolandNorway
China
Australia
South Africa200 trillion
cubic feet
USA
Mexico
Libya
Algeria
Argentina
UK
![Page 31: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
30Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: For the underlying data to this chart, go to BI LNGGG<GO> Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
LNG EXPORT CAPACITY BY COUNTRY/REGION (MMTPA)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
Other
North America
Russia
East Africa
West Africa
Australia
Other
North America
Russia
West Africa
North Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Australia
Qatar
Demand
Pre
-FID
O
pe
rati
on
al,
un
de
r c
on
str
uc
tio
no
r p
os
t-F
ID
![Page 32: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
31Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
Historical
![Page 33: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
32Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
Historical
2010
![Page 34: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
33Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
Historical
2010
![Page 35: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
34Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
Historical
2010
![Page 36: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
35Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
Historical
2010
![Page 37: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
36Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
2012
Historical
2010
![Page 38: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
37Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
2012
Historical
2010
![Page 39: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
38Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
20122013
Historical
2010
![Page 40: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
39Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
20122013
2014
Historical
2010
![Page 41: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
40Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
20122013
2014
Historical
2010
![Page 42: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
41Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
GLOBAL POWER DEMAND GROWTH, 2012-40
Negative Low Medium High
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
DEMAND UNDER NEO
WILL BE 15% LOWER IN
2040 THAN IEA NEW
POLICIES SCENARIO
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42Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note: Prices have been adjusted for inflation according to YoY CPI Index from UK Office of National Statistics Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ONS
ARA AND NEWCASTLE COAL PRICE 2007–2015 (2014 US$/TONNE)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ARA
Newcastle
![Page 44: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
43Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Values as of 08 September 2015; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 – 2015 YTD
S&P 500 Oil & Gas
Stowe Global Coal
NEX
0
50
100
150
200
Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15
![Page 45: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
44Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
COAL BANKRUPTCIES
Image: various company sources
Investment Pte
![Page 46: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
45Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
The coal business
in the United
States has kind of
died, so we’re out
of the coal
business now.
COAL
Bill KochPicture: Forbes
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46Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
The greatest crisis society
confronts is not a future
environmental crisis
predicted by computer
models but a human crisis
today that is fully within our
power to solve... with coal.
DEVELOPING WORLD ENERGY
‘Energy Access For All With
Green Coal’ campaignPicture: Peabody Energy
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47Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Image: Denis Donohue / Shutterstock
AFRICAN PROVERB
“The gazelle does not have to outrun the cheetah
It has to outrun the slowest gazelle”
OilSands
CoalCleanenergy
Oil Gas
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48Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
US LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL)
0
50
100
150
200
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Onshore wind
Utility-scale PV
Natural gas
Coal
![Page 50: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
49Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
EUROPE LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL)
0
50
100
150
200
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Onshore wind
Utility-scale PV
Natural gas
Coal
![Page 51: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
50Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
CHINA LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL)
0
50
100
150
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Onshore wind
Utility-scale PV
Natural gas
Coal
![Page 52: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
51Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
INDIA LCOE($/MWH NOMINAL)
0
50
100
150
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Onshore wind
Utility-scale PV
Natural gas
Coal
![Page 53: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
52Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich● 10/13/2015
TOTAL INVESTMENTS PER TECHNOLOGY, 2015-40 (US$ REAL)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
RENEWABLES TAKE
65% OF THE $12.2
TRILLION POWER
INVESTMENT TO 2040
![Page 54: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
53Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Renewables are poised to
seize the crucial top spot in
global power supply growth…
Affordable renewables are
set to dominate the emerging
power systems of the world
RENEWABLES TO DOMINATE POWER SUPPLY GROWTH
Fatih Birol
Chief Economist, IEA Picture: Mikhail Evstafiev, Wikimedia
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54Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND & SOLAR) , 2014 (%)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Brazil
3%
India
3%
China
5%
Australia
8%
France
3%
US
4%
Mexico
3%
ME +
Africa
0%
UK
9%
Japan
5%
Germany
16%
0
1-5%
6-10%
11-25%
26-50%
50+%
Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come
from BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2015
![Page 56: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
55Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND & SOLAR) , 2040 (%)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Brazil
34%
India
32%
China
37%
France
30%
Australia
52%
ME +
Africa
26%
US
24%
Mexico
32%
Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come
from BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2015
UK
63%
Japan
20%
Germany
77%
0
1-5%
6-10%
11-25%
26-50%
50+%
![Page 57: GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT...Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042314/5f0296167e708231d405003d/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
56Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
ENERGY SERVICE BATTLEFIELD
HIVE home
heating
controls
Smart
thermostats to
reduce churn
Virtual mobile
operator – 80k
customers
Smart home
partnerships/investment
IHD and smart
thermostat
program
BEMS for DR
and energy
efficiency
Smart thermostats
and load
disaggregation
Integrated smart
homes
Smart
lighting /
home
automation
Smart
thermostats and
‘behavioural’ DR
Residential
energy
storage
HEM tools
and DR
Home energy
management
Behavioural
engagement
Smart thermostats,
home automation
Load disaggregation
Solar PV and
energy monitoring
HEM tools
Smart
thermostats
Smart
thermostatsConnected
home / IoT
Load
disaggregation
Heating controls
Home
automation
HomeKit
1m connected
home
customers
Digital Life
connected
home service
Smart home
platform
(AT&T)
Nest
acquisition
Smart home
hubs
HEMS
platform
DR and retail
services
Energy supply
and services
Registered
energy supplier
Home
automation
Home automation
???
Bundled electricity
telecoms services
Bundled electricity,
entertainment and
home automation
Bundled telecoms
and energy
Bundled telecoms,
energy. Residential
energy storage. Bundled telecoms,
electricity supply
beginning in 2016
Bundled insurance,
telecoms and energy
Bundled telecoms,
electricity and gas
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57Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
E.ON SPLIT
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58Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
ELECTRIC VEHICLE UPTAKE
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE
WORLDWIDE, 2013
1.2 billion
ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN
USE WORLDWIDE, 2014
0.75 million (to scale)
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59Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF’s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here:
https://www.bnef.com/Insight/10299. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINESI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS
0
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW)
Cry
sta
llin
e S
i P
V M
od
ule
pri
ce
(US
D/W
)
m=26.3%
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60Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF’s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here:
https://www.bnef.com/Insight/10299. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINESI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
0
1
10
100
0
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Cumulative lithium-ion EV battery pack production (MWh)
Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW)
Cry
sta
llin
e S
i P
V M
od
ule
pri
ce
(US
D/W
)
Lith
ium
-ion
ba
ttery
pa
ck p
rice
(US
D/W
h)
m=15.5%
m=26.3%
EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK
PRICES HAVE FALLEN
60% SINCE 2010
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61Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Photo: Reuters/NASA
BEIJING, CHINA
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62Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Photo: JE Poirrier, Creative Commons
DELHI, INDIA
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63Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Photo: UCLA
LOS ANGELES, USA
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64Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Photo: D€NNI$/Creative Commons
PARIS, FRANCE
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65Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
Photo: HHRCA
LONDON, UK
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66Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
VW DIESELGATE
Source: Flickriver
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67Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
GAP BETWEEN EUROPEAN TEST AND REAL WORLD EMISSIONS, VARIOUS VEHICLES, 2001-2014 (%)
Source: International Council on Clean Transportation
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68Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
URBAN TRANSPORT REVOLUTION
Images: Transport for London, Zipcar, Uber, Proterra
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69Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
CHANGING UK ELECTRICITY MIX
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
199820002002200420062008201020122014
Other
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
26.2%
0.5%
27.5%20.1%
23.8%
1.9%
POWER GENERATED BY SOURCE, 1998-2014 (TWH) SHARE OF GENERATION, 2015 YTD (%)
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70Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
UK HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY BILL2014 (£)
235
139
124
59
29
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2014
VAT @ 5%
Energy and climatechange policies
Supplier costs andmargins
Network costs
Wholesale energycosts
586
Minus £30 rebates + >>>
Renewables Obligation,
36
Small-scale Feed-in-Tariffs, 9
Other, 45
235
139
124
59
29
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2014
VAT @ 5%
Energy and climatechange policies
Supplier costs andmargins
Network costs
Wholesale energycosts Source: UK DECC Annual domestic energy bills 2013,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance,Note: Real 2014 Sterling.
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71Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
UK LCOE BY TECHNOLOTYH2 2015 ($/MWH)
36%
27%
19%
17%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: Natural gas CCGT and coal includes a carbon cost of $26/tonne
44%
13%
5%
0 50 100 150 200 250
Wind - onshore
Natural gas CCGT
Coal
PV - c-Si (U)
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72Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
UK ENERGY POLICY
Image: Wikimedia Commons
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73Michael Liebreich BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich
IN SUMMARY…
Picture: Wikimedia Commons
The old is dying and the
new struggles to be
born; in this interregnum
a great variety of morbid
symptoms appear.
Antonio Gramsci
Co-Founder & Leader, Italian
Communist Party
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