gold, crude oil and the euro are now longer overbought

8/8/2019 Gold, Crude Oil and the Euro are now longer Overbought.

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock

picks, and commentary can be found HERE.

Oct ober 20, 2010 Gold, Crude Oi l and the Euro are now longer Overbought .

The yield on the 10-Year note is back below my monthly pivot at 2.555, so we renew our watch

for quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249 in anticipation of QE2. Gold testedmy weekly risky level at $1373.6 on Monday then closed below my monthly pivot at $1343.7 onWednesday, so theres risk to my quarterly value level at $1306.4. Crude oil is back below thisweeks pivot at $82.38 with my annual pivot still at $77.05. The euro appears headed for a testof my quarterly value level at 1.3318. The Dow will lose its overbought characteristic on itsdaily chart today or tomorrow. My monthly pivot is 10,857 with weekly, annual and semiannualrisky levels at 11,229, 11,235 and 11,296. Single-family housing starts rise, but communitybanks reluctant to lend to home builders. Thoughts on the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund!

10-Year Note (2.475) Weekly, annual and annual value levels are 2.620, 2.813 and 2.999 withmonthly and daily pivots at 2.555 and 2.515, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and

2.249.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1333.7) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1306.4, $1260.8,$1218.7 and $1115.2 with my monthly pivot at $1343.7, and weekly and daily risky levels pivots at

$1373.6 and $1378.9.


Nymex Crude Oil ($79.56) My annual value level is $77.05 with daily and weekly pivots at $82.23

and $82.38, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74.



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The Euro (1.3731) My quarterly value level is 1.3318 with daily and weekly risky levels at 1.3895and 1.4060. My monthly value level is 1.2342 with semiannual risky level at 1.4733.


Daily Dow: (10,979) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 10,857, 10,558,10,379 and 8,523 with daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 11,138, 11,229, 11,235,

11,290 and 11,296. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th

high of 11,258.01.



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Single-Family Housing Starts rise 4.4% in September - Nationwide housing starts edged up 0.3%to an annual rate of 610,000 units in September, as singe-family starts jumped 4.4% according to U.S

Commerce Department figures released today.The main stumbling block for a housing recovery is the lack of credit for new construction. The mainreason for this is the fact that community banks do not want to write new Construction & DevelopmentLoans, as that category of Commercial Real Estate loans remains a huge drag.

1172 of all community banks (14.8%) are overexposed to Construction & Development Loans 1432 or 18.1% are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans. 2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans. 1317 or 16.7% have a real estate loan pipeline thats 100% funded. 2622 or 33.2% have a pipeline thats between 80% and 100% funded. 3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline thats 80% or more funded. So half the

community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real Estate and thepossible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate for single-family housing starts is 452,000 units the best showingsince May. Could it be that the uncertainty of the foreclosure mess benefits home builders, particularlythe big builders who have a mortgage finance division? Why bother with the foreclosure sale red tapewhen you can purchase a brand new home with builder financing. My ValuTrader Model Portfolio haspositions in KB Home (KB) and Ryland Group (RYL).

Thoughts on the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund - The FDIC gets a reprieve on the requirement toget the Deposit Insurance Fund to 1.15% on insured deposits by June 2013. The Dodd-FrankFinancial Reform Bill sets a reserve ratio of 1.35 by September 2020 kicking this can down the road

seven years. The new Restoration Plan forgoes a uniform 3 basis point assessment previouslyscheduled to take effect January 1, 2011. Keep in mind that banks have prepaid all annualassessments through 2012 at a total of $15.333 billion per year. The FDIC magically projectssomewhat lower losses from 2010 through 2014, which I find as a stretch given 829 banks on theFDIC List of Problem banks. With so many community banks overexposed to C&D and CRE loans andwith 50% having funding pipeline issues, I do not know how the FDIC can achieve a positive balanceeven by 2020.

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategist

ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our products and services visitwww.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues andfind out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

gold, crude oil and the euro are now longer overbought

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